Th???a thu???n h???t nh??n g??y c??ng th???ng gi???a Iran v?? M???

Chủ nhật - 18/08/2019 07:31
T???ng th???ng Barack Obama g???i ???? l?? ???th???a thu???n kh??ng ph??? bi???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n ch???t ch??? nh???t t???ng ???????c ????m ph??n???. T???ng th???ng Donald Trump ???? ch??? gi???u n?? l?? ???m???t trong nh???ng th???a thu???n t???i t??? nh???t t??? ??????tr?????c t???i nay???. Gi??? ????y, K??? ho???ch H??nh ?????ng Chung To??n di???n (JCPOA) ??? t??n g???i r???c r???i ???????c ?????t cho th???a thu???n h???t nh??n ??a qu???c gia ???????c k?? gi???a Iran v?? s??u c?????ng qu???c th??? gi???i n??m 2015
Th???a thu???n h???t nh??n g??y c??ng th???ng gi???a Iran v?? M???

Th???a thu???n h???t nh??n g??y c??ng th???ng gi???a Iran v?? M???

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Ngu???n: The nuclear deal fuelling tensions between Iran and AmericaThe Economist, 23/07/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: L?? H???ng Loan

T???ng th???ng Barack Obama g???i ???? l?? ???th???a thu???n kh??ng ph??? bi???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n ch???t ch??? nh???t t???ng ???????c ????m ph??n???. T???ng th???ng Donald Trump ???? ch??? gi???u n?? l?? ???m???t trong nh???ng th???a thu???n t???i t??? nh???t t??? ??????tr?????c t???i nay???. Gi??? ????y, K??? ho???ch H??nh ?????ng Chung To??n di???n (JCPOA) ??? t??n g???i r???c r???i ???????c ?????t cho th???a thu???n h???t nh??n ??a qu???c gia ???????c k?? gi???a Iran v?? s??u c?????ng qu???c th??? gi???i n??m 2015 ??? ??ang g???p ph???i kh?? kh??n trong vi???c duy tr?? s??? t???n t???i c???a m??nh. ??ng Trump ???? gi??ng m???t ????n ch?? m???ng v??o th???a thu???n n??y v??o n??m ngo??i b???ng c??ch r??t M??? ra kh???i hi???p ?????nh. V?? Iran ???? g??y ra th??m nhi???u r???n n???t h??n v??o th??ng 7 n??m nay b???ng c??ch vi ph???m m???t s??? gi???i h???n ???? th???a thu???n, v??? quy m?? d??? tr??? uranium ????? gi??u th???p v?? v??? n???ng ????? v???t li???u ph??n h???ch. Khi c??ng th???ng gia t??ng ??? v??ng V???nh, M??? v?? Iran d?????ng nh?? c??ng ??ang trong qu?? ti???n t???i xung ?????t v???i nhau. V???y, ch??nh x??c JCPOA l?? g???

N??m 2002, th??? gi???i bi???t ?????n m???t ?????a ??i???m l??m gi??u uranium l???n, b?? m???t c???a Iran ???????c x??y d???ng s??u d?????i l??ng ?????t. Iran tuy??n b??? h??? d??? ?????nh s???n xu???t uranium ????? gi??u th???p cho c??c nh?? m??y ??i???n h???t nh??n. Ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i nghi ng??? ????y l?? m???t ph???n c???a ch????ng tr??nh s???n xu???t v?? kh?? h???t nh??n b?? m???t, nh???m cung c???p cho Iran kh??? n??ng s???n xu???t nh???ng v???t li???u ????? gi??u cao ????? ch??? t???o bom. N??m 2003, ngay sau khi T???ng th???ng George W. Bush tuy??n b??? ???cu???c chi???n to??n c???u v???i kh???ng b?????? v?? M??? x??m chi???m Iraq, Iran tuy??n b??? s??? ????nh ch??? m???i ho???t ?????ng li??n quan ?????n l??m gi??u h???t nh??n, nh?? m???t ph???n trong ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao v???i ch??u ??u. Nh??ng khi c??ng th???ng khu v???c gia t??ng trong th???p ni??n ti???p theo, ch????ng tr??nh h???t nh??n Iran ???? nhanh ch??ng ph??t tri???n. C??c c?????ng qu???c ph????ng T??y, do lo ng???i s??? ph??t tri???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n c???a Iran v?? cu???c ch???y ??ua v?? trang ??? Trung ????ng c?? th??? ti???p n???i, li??n ti???p ????a ra c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t ng??y c??ng h?? kh???c ????? bu???c Iran ph???i l??i b?????c. Tin ?????n lan truy???n r???ng Israel c?? th??? ti???n h??nh c??c cu???c kh??ng k??ch, gi???ng nh?? ???? l??m ?????i v???i m???t l?? ph???n ???ng c???a Iraq n??m 1981 v?? m???t ?????a ??i???m c???a Syria n??m 2007.

V??o th??ng 07 n??m 2015, Iran ???? ?????t ???????c m???t th???a thu???n v???i n??m th??nh vi??n th?????ng tr???c c???a H???i ?????ng B???o an Li??n H???p Qu???c (M???, Anh, Ph??p, Nga v?? Trung Qu???c) c??ng nh?? v???i ?????c v?? Li??n minh ch??u ??u. N?? ???? khi???n h??ng ng??n m??y ly t??m (m??y l??m gi??u uranium) c???a Iran b??? b??? x??. Iran c??ng ?????ng ?? ch??? l??m gi??u uranium ??? m???c ????? th???p kh??ng ph?? h???p v???i vi???c ch??? t???o bom v?? t??ch l??y kh??ng qu?? 300kg. H??? ????? b?? t??ng v??o l??i l?? ph???n ???ng n?????c n???ng c???a m??nh t???i Arak, n??i n???u kh??ng c?? th??? ???? t???o ra plutonium cho m???t qu??? bom. V?? Iran ???? ?????ng ?? v???i m???t ch??? ????? thanh s??t nghi??m ng???t nh???t so v???i b???t c??? ????u tr??n th??? gi???i. ?????i l???i, m???t s??? l???nh tr???ng ph???t ???? ???????c d??? b???, mang l???i s??? c???u tr??? cho n???n kinh t??? b??? t???n h???i c???a Iran.

Nh???ng ng?????i ????? xu???t th???a thu???n ???? l???p lu???n r???ng c??c h???n ch??? n??y ???? khi???n Iran ng???ng b?????c t???i th???i ??i???m h??n m???t n??m n???a s??? c?? th??? s???n xu???t l?????ng nhi??n li???u t????ng ??????ng m???t qu??? bom, ch??? kh??ng ph???i m???t v??i th??ng. Theo ??ng Obama, ???h??nh ?????ng qu??n s??? s??? ch??? c?? th??? l??m ch???m l???i ch????ng tr??nh c???a Iran trong m???t v??i n??m l?? nhi???u nh???t, t????ng ???ng v???i m???t ph???n nh??? c???a nh???ng h???n ch??? ???????c ??p ?????t b???i th???a thu???n n??y???. V?? ngay c??? khi Iran l???a d???i, v??? l?? thuy???t, n?? ch??? c?? th??? th???c hi???n m???t c??ch ch???m ch???p ????? tr??nh b??? ph??t hi???n. Kh??ng m???y ???n t?????ng v???i ??i???u n??y, nh???ng nh??n v???t hi???u chi???n ??? M???, Israel v?? c??c qu???c gia v??ng V???nh ???? ch??? gi???u r???ng ??ng Obama ???? cho ??i qu?? nhi???u. H??? ph??n n??n r???ng Iran s??? ???????c ph??p ti???p t???c m???t v??i ho???t ?????ng l??m gi??u v?? m??? r???ng ch????ng tr??nh c???a m??nh khi c??c h???n ch??? gi???m ??i (h???n ch??? ?????u ti??n s??? h???t h???n sau 10 n??m). Trong khi ????, Iran s??? nh???n ???????c h??ng t??? ???? la v???n c?? th??? ???????c h??? chuy???n cho c??c nh??m chi???n binh ?????ng minh trong khu v???c.

V??o th??ng 05 n??m 2018, ??ng Trump ???? r??t M??? ra kh???i JCPOA v?? s???m ??p ?????t l???i c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t ?????i v???i Iran. C??c n?????c ch??u ??u h???a s??? b???o v??? quan h??? th????ng m???i v???i Iran theo c??ch t???t nh???t c?? th???, nh??ng h???u h???t c??c c??ng ty mu???n hy sinh c??c th???a thu???n v???i Iran h??n l?? ch???u nguy c?? m???t c??ng vi???c kinh doanh t???i th??? tr?????ng M???. Iran ????n ph????ng duy tr?? th???a thu???n h???t nh??n trong m???t n??m. Nh??ng v??o th??ng 04 n??m 2019, ??ng Trump ???? ch???m d???t c??c l???nh mi???n tr??? cho ph??p m???t s??? qu???c gia ti???p t???c mua d???u m??? c???a Iran. ???? l?? gi???t n?????c l??m tr??n ly. V??o th??ng 05 n??m 2019, Iran th??ng b??o r???ng h??? s??? b???t ?????u r??t kh???i th???a thu???n, t???ng ??i???u kho???n m???t, tr??? khi ch??u ??u c?? th??? b???o v??? n???n kinh t??? Iran.

K??? t??? ????, s??? th?? ?????ch gi???a M??? v?? Iran ???? t??ng l??n. C??c con t??u ???? b??? t???n c??ng trong ho???c g???n eo bi???n Hormuz, n??i m???t ph???n n??m s???n l?????ng xu???t kh???u d???u to??n c???u ph???i ??i qua. V??o th??ng 06, Iran ???? b???n h??? m???t m??y bay kh??ng ng?????i l??i c???a M???; c??c m??y bay n??m bom c???a M??? ???????c b??? tr?? c??ch m???c ti??u ??? Iran ch??? m?????i ph??t khi ??ng Trump k??u g???i m???t cu???c t???n c??ng tr??? ????a. V??o th??ng 07, M??? tuy??n b??? ???? b???n h??? m???t m??y bay kh??ng ng?????i l??i c???a Iran. Trong khi ????, C?? quan N??ng l?????ng Nguy??n t??? Qu???c t??? ???? x??c minh r???ng Iran ???? ph?? v??? gi???i h???n 300kg v??o ng??y 01 th??ng 07, sau ???? l?? ng?????ng tinh khi???t 3,67% v??o ng??y 08 th??ng 07.

Tr??? khi M??? v?? Iran c?? th??? t??m c??ch ????m ph??n m???t l???n n???a, Iran s??? tr??? l???i v???i kh??? n??ng ch??? t???o bom h???t nh??n; v?? ??ng Trump s??? ?????i m???t v???i ??p l???c ng??y c??ng t??ng t??? nh???ng ng?????i hi???u chi???n mu???n kh??ng k??ch Iran. ??i???u g?? c?? th??? ng??n ch???n m???t trong nh???ng c??n ??c m???ng n??y tr??? th??nh hi???n th???c? C?? l??? l?? m???t th???a thu???n t????ng t??? nh?? JCPOA.
An ninh con ng?????i (Human security)
 

T??c gi???: Ho??ng C???m Thanh & Nguy???n H???ng B???o Thi

Kh??i ni???m an ninh con ng?????i (human security) xu???t hi???n v??o giai ??o???n ch???ng ki???n nhi???u thay ?????i l???n c???a th??? gi???i ??? s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X??, k???t th??c Chi???n tranh L???nh v?? s??? xu???t hi???n nh???ng khuynh h?????ng trong vi???c xem x??t v?? nghi??n c???u kh??i ni???m an ninh. Ngay t??? ?????u nh???ng n??m 1990, c??c m???i ??e do??? v?? xung ?????t m???i n???y sinh ??i c??ng v???i xu h?????ng to??n c???u ho?? c??ng nh?? s??? xu???t hi???n m???nh m??? c???a c??c ch??? th??? phi qu???c gia ???? g??y n??n nh???ng b???t ???n an ninh m???i cho t???ng qu???c gia c??ng nh?? c???ng ?????ng th??? gi???i.

Trong ho??n c???nh ???y, c??u h???i v??? vai tr?? c???a qu???c gia d??n t???c v?? kh??i ni???m quy???n l???c, s???c m???nh ??? ?????i t?????ng h??ng ?????u c???a an ninh ??? ???????c xem x??t l???i. Theo ????, l?? thuy???t v??? ???an ninh l???y con ng?????i l??m trung t??m???, hay an ninh con ng?????i, ???? b???t ?????u ???????c quan t??m nghi??n c???u v?? ph??t tri???n.

Kh??i ni???m ???an ninh con ng?????i??? l???u ?????u ti??n ???????c n??u l??n trong B??o c??o Ph??t tri???n Con ng?????i c???a Ch????ng tr??nh Ph??t tri???n Li??n Hi???p Qu???c (UNDP) n??m 1994. Theo UNDP, kh??i ni???m an ninh t??? l??u ???????c c??c n?????c hi???u theo ngh??a h???p l?? an ninh qu???c gia, ????ng g??i trong ph???m vi c??c m???i ??e d???a ?????i v???i ch??? quy???n, to??n v???n l??nh th???, hay c??c v???n ????? g???n li???n v???i s??? sinh t???n c???a m???t qu???c gia nh?? chi???n tranh, ch???y ??ua v?? trang, ph??? bi???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n??? UNDP cho r???ng trong nh???n th???c v??? an ninh c???a m??nh, c??c qu???c gia ???? kh??ng l??u t??m t???i nh???ng m???i lo l???ng ch??nh ????ng v??? an ninh c???a nh???ng ng?????i d??n b??nh th?????ng trong cu???c s???ng th?????ng nh???t c???a h???. Ch??nh v?? v???y t??? ch???c n??y ???? ????? ra kh??i ni???m ???an ninh con ng?????i???, bao g???m 7 th??nh t??? ch??nh: an ninh kinh t???, an ninh l????ng th???c, an ninh y t???, an ninh m??i tr?????ng, an ninh c?? nh??n, an ninh c???ng ?????ng, v?? an ninh ch??nh tr???.

  • An ninh kinh t???: b???o ?????m m???c thu nh???p c?? b???n c???a con ng?????i (th??ng qua c??c c??ng vi???c trong khu v???c kinh t??? t?? nh??n hay nh?? n?????c, c??ng vi???c l??m c??ng ??n l????ng hay t??? ph??c l???i x?? h???i c???a ch??nh ph???). M???i ??e do??? ch??nh c???a an ninh kinh t??? ch??nh l?? t??nh tr???ng ????i ngh??o.
  • An ninh l????ng th???c: ?????m b???o m???i ng?????i d??n ?????u ???????c ti???p c???n ngu???n l????ng th???c c?? b???n ????? ?????m b???o ????? c??c ch???t dinh d?????ng cho m???t cu???c s???ng hi???u qu??? v?? kho??? m???nh. Ngu???n l????ng th???c s???n c?? ????? cung c???p l?? ??i???u c???n thi???t nh??ng ch??a ph???i l?? m???t ??i???u ki???n ????? ????? ?????m b???o an ninh l????ng th???c v?? con ng?????i v???n c?? th??? ch???t ????i v?? kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng ti???p c???n ?????n ngu???n l????ng th???c do h??? th???ng ph??n ph???i kh??ng hi???u qu??? hay con ng?????i thi???u kh??? n??ng mua h??ng v?? s???n xu???t cho ch??nh b???n th??n h??? s??? d???ng.
  • An ninh y t???: ?????m b???o s???c kh???e cho m???i ng?????i d??n. S???c kho??? l?? m???t trong nh???ng nh??n t??? quan tr???ng v?? tr???c ti???p ???nh h?????ng ?????n an ninh. ??? c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n, b???nh truy???n nhi???m v?? k?? sinh l?? nguy??n nh??n g??y n??n c??i ch???t c???a h??ng tri???u ng?????i m???i n??m. B???nh t???t c??ng g???n li???n v???i ??i???u ki???n s???ng kh??ng an to??n nh?? ???nh h?????ng t??? ngu???n n?????c hay ngu???n l????ng th???c thi???u d?????ng ch???t. C??n ??? c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n nh??n t??? ch??nh g??y t??? vong l?? ung th?? v?? nh???ng b???nh li??n quan ?????n h??? tu???n ho??n m??u (li??n quan ?????n l???i s???ng). M???i ??e do??? v??? b???nh t???t v?? t???n th????ng s???c kho??? ?????c bi???t l???n h??n ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i ngh??o, ?????c bi???t l?? ph??? n??? v?? tr??? em ??? c??? c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n v?? ??ang ph??t tri???n.
  • An ninh m??i tr?????ng: b???o v??? con ng?????i tr?????c c??c m???i ??e do??? t??? m??i tr?????ng. C??c m???i ??e d???a t??? m??i tr?????ng ???????c chia l??m hai lo???i: thi??n tai nh?? l?? l???t, h???n h??n, ?????ng ?????t, s??ng th???n???v?? do con ng?????i g??y ra bao g???m ?? nhi???m ngu???n n?????c, ?? nhi???m ?????t ??ai, ?? nhi???m kh??ng kh??, ch???t ph?? r???ng. Hi???n t?????ng bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u v?? nh???ng th???m ho??? sinh th??i b???t ngu???n tr???c ti???p ph???n l???n t??? ho???t ?????ng c???a con ng?????i.
  • An ninh c?? nh??n: b???o v??? c??c c?? nh??n tr?????c c??c h??nh vi b???o l???c. ??? c??c qu???c gia ph??t tri???n c??ng nh?? ??ang ph??t tri???n, cu???c s???ng con ng?????i ?????u b??? ??e do??? b???i c??c h??nh vi b???o l???c kh??ng th??? d??? ??o??n tr?????c ???????c. M???t s??? h??nh th???c ??e do??? b???o l???c bao g???m: ??e d???a t??? nh?? n?????c (tra t???n, lao ?????ng kh??? sai); ??e d???a t??? c??c qu???c gia kh??c (chi???n tranh, xung ?????t v?? trang gi???a c??c nh??m xuy??n bi??n gi???i); ??e d???a t??? c??c nh??m ng?????i kh??c (c??ng th???ng v?? xung ?????t s???c t???c); ??e d???a t??? c??c c?? nh??n ho???c b??ng nh??m ch???ng l???i c??c c?? nh??n v?? b??ng nh??m kh??c (t???i ph???m, t???i ph???m c?? t??? ch???c xuy??n qu???c gia, b???o l???c ???????ng ph???); ??e d???a tr???c ti???p ?????i v???i ph??? n??? v?? tr??? em (b???o l???c trong gia ????nh, l???m d???ng tr??? em)???
  • An ninh c???ng ?????ng: Con ng?????i c???m th???y an to??n h??n khi h??? l?? th??nh vi??n c???a m???t nh??m n??o ???? ??? nh?? trong m???t gia ????nh, c???ng ?????ng, t??? ch???c, nh??m s???c t???c hay d??n t???c. N???u m???t nh??m hay c???ng ?????ng ???????c an to??n th?? t???o n??n an ninh c???a th??nh vi??n trong c???ng ?????ng ???y. M???i ??e do??? ?????n an ninh c???ng ?????ng xu???t ph??t t??? c??c t???p qu??n ????n ??p, tr???ng nam khinh n??? hay ph??n bi???t s???c t???c, xung ?????t v?? trang, hay c??c t??? ch???c phi???n qu??n.
  • An ninh ch??nh tr???: M???t trong nh???ng kh??a c???nh quan tr???ng c???a an ninh con ng?????i g???n li???n v???i s??? ?????m b???o t??n tr???ng c??c quy???n c?? b???n c???a con ng?????i khi h??? sinh s???ng trong m???t x?? h???i. ?????m b???o an ninh ch??nh tr??? l?? b???o v??? con ng?????i kh??ng ph???i ch???u s??? ????n ??p, ng?????c ????i, ??e do??? hay x??m h???i c???a c??c l???c l?????ng ch??nh tr??? nh?? n?????c hay c???a c??c nh?? c???m quy???n.

C?? th??? n??i ch??nh s??? ra ?????i c???a kh??i ni???m an ninh con ng?????i ???? t???o ra nh???ng thay ?????i quan tr???ng trong nh???n th???c c???a nhi???u qu???c gia v??? kh??i ni???m ???an ninh???. Trong ???? quan tr???ng nh???t ch??nh l?? nh???n th???c v??? hai kh??a c???nh: an ninh cho ai v?? an ninh tr?????c c??c m???i ??e d???a n??o?

N???u nh?? theo c??ch hi???u truy???n th???ng, an ninh ?????ng ngh??a v???i an ninh qu???c gia, trong ???? qu???c gia l?? ch??? th??? c???n ???????c b???o v??? v??? m???t an ninh, th?? theo c??ch hi???u m???i, con ng?????i n???i l??n tr??? th??nh ch??? th??? ch??nh c???a an ninh v?? c???n ???????c ??u ti??n b???o v???. B??n c???nh ????, n???u nh?? an ninh truy???n th???ng (hay an ninh qu???c gia) ????? cao m???i ??e d???a ?????n t??? ngo???i x??m ?????i v???i ch??? quy???n, to??n v???n l??nh th??? c???a qu???c gia th?? an ninh con ng?????i t???p trung v??o c??c m???i ??e d???a thu???c ???ch??nh tr??? c???p th???p???, nh?? ngh??o ????i, k??m ph??t tri???n, ?? nhi???m m??i tr?????ng, b???nh d???ch???

Ph??n bi???t an ninh con ng?????i v?? an ninh qu???c gia

  An ninh con ng?????i An ninh qu???c gia
L???i ??ch Ph???c v??? con ng?????i, l???y con ng?????i l??m trung t??m. Ph???c v??? nh?? n?????c v?? nh???ng ng?????i tr???c thu???c nh?? n?????c.
M???c ????ch B???o v??? con ng?????i tr??nh kh???i nh???ng x??m l?????c t??? b??n ngo??i v?? c??c m???i ??e d???a v???: ?? nhi???m m??i tr?????ng, c??c d???ch b???nh, t??nh tr???ng thi???u th???n kinh t?????? S??? d???ng c??c chi???n l?????c r??n ??e ????? duy tr?? s??? to??n v???n c???a nh?? n?????c v?? b???o v??? qu???c gia tr??nh kh???i nh???ng x??m l?????c t??? b??n ngo??i.
Ph????ng ti???n T???ng h???p nhi???u bi???n ph??p v??? ch??nh tr??? kinh t??? x?? h???i???, ?????c bi???t l?? th??ng qua ph??t tri???n kinh t??? v?? n??ng cao ?????i s???ng con ng?????i. D???a v??o x??y d???ng s???c m???nh qu??n s???, qu???c ph??ng???

M???c d?? an ninh qu???c gia v?? an ninh con ng?????i c?? c??ch ti???p c???n kh??c nhau, nh??ng ch??ng kh??ng ho??n to??n ?????i ngh???ch, m?? ng?????c l???i c?? m???i li??n h??? nh???t ?????nh. Trong b??o c??o c??ng b??? n??m 2003 c???a m??nh, ???y ban v??? An ninh Con ng?????i cho r???ng n???u kh??ng c?? an ninh con ng?????i th?? an ninh qu???c gia s??? kh??ng ???????c b???o ?????m v?? ng?????c l???i.

Theo ????, n???u ng?????i d??n c???a m???t n?????c ph???i ch???u ?????ng c??c v???n ????? nh?? ngh??o ????i, k??m ph??t tri???n, ?? nhi???m m??i tr?????ng, d???ch b???nh??? th?? s???c m???nh c???a qu???c gia ???? s??? suy gi???m, l??m ???nh h?????ng t???i kh??? n??ng t??? v??? c???a qu???c gia ???? tr?????c c??c nguy c?? x??m l?????c. Ng?????c l???i, n???u m???t qu???cgia b??? x??m l?????c th?? qu???c gia ???? c??ng kh??ng th??? c?? ??i???u ki???n ?????m b???o an ninh c???a t???ng c?? nh??n ng?????i d??n trong c??c v???n ????? li??n quan ?????n cu???c s???ng th?????ng nh???t c???a h???. Ch??nh v?? v???y, c?? th??? n??i n??ng cao an ninh con ng?????i ch??nh l?? g??p ph???n ?????m b???o an ninh qu???c gia v?? ng?????c l???i.

M???c d?? c??n m???t s??? tranh c??i ?????i v???i vi???c ????a an ninh con ng?????i v??o ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? v??? an ninh c???a t???ng qu???c gia c??ng nh?? c???ng ?????ng qu???c t???, nh??ng tr??n th???c t??? kh??i ni???m ???an ninh con ng?????i??? ???? ???????c nhi???u qu???c gia ti???p nh???n v?? ??p d???ng v??o c??c ch??nh s??ch ?????i n???i c??ng nh?? ?????i ngo???i c???a m??nh.

V?? d??? nh?? Nh???t B???n, b??n c???nh c??c ch????ng tr??nh nh???m n??ng cao an ninh con ng?????i c???a ng?????i d??n trong n?????c nh?? c??c ch??nh s??ch v??? ph??c l???i x?? h???i, ch??m s??c s???c kh???e, b???o v??? m??i tr?????ng???, Nh???t B???n c??ng ???? ????a an ninh con ng?????i tr??? th??nh m???t tr???ng t??m trong ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a m??nh. Theo ????, ch??nh s??ch ODA c???a Nh???t B???n ??u ti??n t??i tr??? cho c??c d??? ??n, ch????ng tr??nh gi??p n??ng cao an ninh con ng?????i c???a ng?????i d??n ??? c??c n?????c m?? Nh???t B???n quan t??m. ??i???u n??y gi???i th??ch t???i sao nhi???u d??? ??n ODA c???a Nh???t B???n t???p trung v??o c??c l??nh v???c nh?? x??a ????i gi???m ngh??o, b???o v??? m??i tr?????ng, hay ch??m s??c y t???, ph??ng ch???ng d???ch b???nh???

Ngu???n: ????o Minh H???ng ??? L?? H???ng Hi???p (ch??? bi??n), S??? tay Thu???t ng??? Quan h??? Qu???c t???, (TPHCM: Khoa QHQT ??? ?????i h???c KHXH&NV TPHCM, 2013).

TPP, Trung Qu???c v?? t????ng lai tr???t t??? th????ng m???i to??n c???u

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T??c gi???: Shuaihua Cheng | Bi??n d???ch: Tr???n Tu???n Minh

Vi???c Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng do M??? d???n ?????u (g???i t???t l?? TPP) thi???u v???ng s??? hi???n di???n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? g???i l??n nhi???u c??u h???i: Li???u TPP c?? ph???i l?? m???t c??u l???c b??? ???ai c??ng ???????c tr??? Trung Qu???c???, ???????c thi???t l???p nh???m ki???m ch??? qu???c gia n??y hay kh??ng? Li???u Trung Qu???c c?? ph???n ???ng l???i b???ng c??c kh???i th????ng m???i c???nh tranh t????ng t???, t??? ???? gia t??ng s??? th?? ?????ch tr??n l??nh v???c kinh t??? ?????i v???i Hoa K???? ??i???u ???? c?? ?? ngh??a nh?? th??? n??o ?????i v???i t????ng lai c???a tr???t t??? th????ng m???i to??n c???u?

D?? TPP x??t cho c??ng c??ng c?? th??? ph???c v??? cho l???i ??ch c???a Trung Qu???c, nh??ng B???c Kinh v???n ho??i nghi v??? nh???ng quy t???c ??ang ???????c so???n th???o trong hi???p ?????nh n??y. ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c, vi???c tham gia s??u h??n v??o T??? ch???c Th????ng m???i Th??? gi???i (WTO) th??ng qua v??ng ????m ph??n Doha v???n l?? m???t ??u ti??n h??ng ?????u v?? quan tr???ng h??n so v???i vi???c x??y d???ng m???t nh??m th????ng m???i m???i.

TPP l?? m???t hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i t??? do (FTA) c?? ph???m vi h???t s???c r???ng l???n, hi???n ??ang trong qu?? tr??nh ????m ph??n bao g???m 12 qu???c gia ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng. N??m 2006, Brunei, Chile, New Zealand v?? Singapore b???t ?????u kh???i ?????ng m???t FTA 4 b??n, c??n ???????c g???i l?? Pacific-4. Sau ????, 5 qu???c gia kh??c bao g???m Hoa K???, ??c, Malaysia, Peru v?? Vi???t Nam c??ng tham gia v??o hi???p ?????nh n??y v?? d???n ?????n vi???c h??nh th??nh TPP. TPP t??? ch???c v??ng ????m ph??n ?????u ti??n t???i ??c v??o th??ng Ba n??m 2010. Ti???p theo, Mexico, Canada, Nh???t B???n v?? H??n Qu???c c??ng ????? ngh??? tham gia TPP. Trong s??? b???n qu???c gia ???ng c??? n??y, c??c th??nh vi??n c???a TPP ch??? ch???p nh???n cho ba n?????c gia nh???p v?? t??? ch???i H??n Qu???c.

M???c ti??u c???a TPP l?? nh???m ???t???o n??n m???t hi???p ?????nh ti??u chu???n cao, ph?? h???p v???i th??? k??? 21??? nh?? l???i c??ng b??? c???a V??n ph??ng ?????i di???n Th????ng m???i Hoa K??? (USTR). Theo th??ng tin ????a ra, TPP h?????ng ?????n n???n th????ng m???i phi thu??? quan ?????i v???i c??c s???n ph???m c??ng nghi???p, t??? do h??a to??n di???n l??nh v???c d???ch v???, ?????ng th???i ?????ng nh???t h??a s??u s???c h??n s??? ??i???u ti???t c???a c??c th??nh vi??n trong c??c l??nh v???c ?????u t??, mua s???m c??ng, ch??nh s??ch c???nh tranh, c??c r??o c???n k??? thu???t ?????i v???i th????ng m???i, th???c thi quy???n s??? h???u tr?? tu???, doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c, th????ng m???i ??i???n t???, lao ?????ng v?? m??i tr?????ng.

Theo David Pilling trong b??i vi???t tr??n trang Financial Times, kh?? c?? th??? ch???ng minh Hoa K??? ??ang thi???t l???p m???t c??u l???c b??? ???ai c??ng ???????c tr??? Trung Qu???c??? nh?? ?? ki???n c???a nhi???u ng?????i. Tr??n l?? thuy???t, TPP kh??ng ng??n Trung Qu???c tr??? th??nh th??nh vi??n c???a kh???i. Nh?? V??n ph??ng ?????i di???n Th????ng m???i Hoa K??? ???? gi???i th??ch, n???u m???t n???n kinh t??? n??o ???? mu???n gia nh???p v??o TPP, h??? ch??? c???n n???p ????n xin tham gia ch??nh th???c, v?? sau ???? c??c th??nh vi??n hi???n c?? c???a TPP s??? x??t duy???t v?? quy???t ?????nh ch???p nh???n hay kh??ng d???a tr??n c?? s??? ?????ng thu???n.

L???n g???n ????y nh???t Trung Qu???c th??? hi???n mong mu???n gia nh???p TPP l?? v??o th??ng N??m n??m 2013. M???t ?????i di???n c???a B??? Th????ng m???i Trung Qu???c ???? cho bi???t Trung Qu???c ???s??? ph??n t??ch ??u v?? nh?????c ??i???m c??ng nh?? kh??? n??ng tham gia TPP sau khi nghi??n c???u k??? l?????ng, d???a tr??n nguy??n t???c b??nh ?????ng v?? c??ng c?? l???i???.

Vi???c tham gia v??o TPP c?? ?? ngh??a kinh t??? r???t quan tr???ng ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c. N???u ?????ng ngo??i hi???p ?????nh n??y, c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i ?????i di???n v???i t??nh tr???ng ph??n bi???t ?????i x??? trong th??? tr?????ng TPP. V?? d???, TPP s??? d???ng nguy??n t???c ???xu???t x??? l??y k?????? (cumulation of origin) ????? khuy???n kh??ch c??c c??ng ty t??? c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n nh???p nguy??n v???t li???u t??? n???i kh???i TPP thay v?? t??? nh???ng qu???c gia b??n ngo??i nh?? Trung Qu???c ch???ng h???n, trong khi n?????c n??y l???i l?? qu???c gia s???n xu???t nguy??n v???t li???u l???n nh???t th??? gi???i.

T??? quan ??i???m h??? th???ng c?? th??? th???y, Trung Qu???c s??? c?? l???i h??n khi tham gia v?? x??y d???ng c??c quy ?????nh ngay t??? b??y gi???, n???u kh??ng s??? ph???i ch???p nh???n c??c quy ?????nh m???t c??ch th??? ?????ng trong t????ng lai. M???t s??? qui t???c m???i v??? kinh t??? ho???c li??n quan ?????n kinh t??? m?? TPP ??ang ph??t tri???n c?? tri???n v???ng s??? thay th??? nh???ng quy t???c hi???n h??nh l???i th???i c???a WTO v???n ???????c thi???t l???p t??? n??m 1995.

Tuy nhi??n, Trung Qu???c hi???n nay v???n ch??a n???p ????n xin gia nh???p v?? c??n ??ang lo l???ng hai v???n ????? sau:

Th??? nh???t l?? v??? t??nh h??nh ???n ?????nh trong n?????c. Trung Qu???c c?? th??? h?????ng l???i t??? qu?? tr??nh m??? r???ng t??? do h??a trong l??nh v???c s???n xu???t v?? d???ch v???, t??? c??c ch??nh s??ch b???o v??? v?? khuy???n kh??ch ?????u t?? ??? m???c cao ?????i v???i l??nh v???c n??y, th???m ch?? c??? t??? nh???ng quy ?????nh ch???ng tham nh??ng ng???t ngh??o h??n, b???i l??? nh???ng v???n ????? n??y ph?? h???p v???i ch????ng tr??nh c???i c??ch c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c. M???c d?? v???y, Trung Qu???c c??ng r???t lo l???ng v??? nh???ng kh?? kh??n c?? th??? v???p ph???i trong l??nh v???c kinh t??? khi ??p d???ng c??c quy t???c c???a TPP tr??n quy m?? to??n qu???c trong m???t th???i gian ng???n. Qu?? tr??nh g???p g??p n??y c?? th??? g??y ra nh???ng b???t ???n x?? h???i ho???c th???m ch?? l?? nh???ng b???t ???n v??? m???t ch??nh tr???.

Lo l???ng th??? hai c???a Trung Qu???c l?? ??? ch??? m???t s??? ti??u chu???n cao c???a TPP kh??ng h???n ???? t???t v?? ph?? h???p v???i Trung Qu???c. ??i???u kho???n v??? quy???n s??? h???u tr?? tu??? (IP) c???a hi???p ?????nh n??y l?? m???t v?? d??? ??i???n h??nh. Nh?? m???t s??? nh??m l???i ??ch c??ng ???? ch??? ra, ??i???u kho???n v??? IP ???qu?? thi??n v??? c??c nh??m l???i ??ch doanh nghi???p l???n??? c???a c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p ph??t tri???n v?? c?? ??????nh h?????ng ti??u c???c ?????i v???i s??? ph??t tri???n???.

Nhi???u nh?? b??nh lu???n cho r???ng, ????? ?????i ph?? v???i TPP, Trung Qu???c ???? ch??? ?????ng x??y d???ng ri??ng c??c kh???i th????ng m???i ?????i ?????ch, v?? d??? nh?? t??? ch???c ?????i t??c Kinh t??? To??n di???n Khu v???c (RCEP), v?? Khu v???c T??? do Th????ng m???i ch??u ?? Th??i B??nh D????ng (FTAAP)

Quan ??i???m v?? nh???n th???c nh?? v???y l?? sai l???m v?? thi???u c?? s??? th???c t???. RCEP kh??ng ph???i l?? s??ng ki???n c???a Trung Qu???c. Ch??nh Hi???p h???i c??c qu???c gia ????ng Nam ?? (ASEAN) ???? kh???i ?????ng s??ng ki???n khu v???c n??y t???i cu???c h???p th?????ng ?????nh ??? Campuchia n??m 2012, v???i s??? c?? m???t c???a 10 th??nh vi??n ASEAN c???ng v???i 6 qu???c gia kh??c m?? ASEAN hi???n ???? k?? k???t c??c FTA nh?? ??c, Trung Qu???c, ???n ?????, Nh???t B???n, H??n Qu???c, v?? New Zealand. C??c th??nh vi??n ???? nh???t tr?? r???ng, ch??nh ASEAN s??? n???m vai tr?? ??i???u h??nh trong c??c cu???c ????m ph??n hi???p ?????nh n??y ch??? kh??ng ph???i Trung Qu???c hay b???t k?? c??c th??nh vi??n n??o kh??c ngo??i ASEAN.

FTAAP c??ng kh??ng ph???i l?? s??ng ki???n c???a Trung Qu???c, v?? c??ng kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t s??ng ki???n m???i. V???i c????ng v??? l?? ch??? t???a H???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh H???p t??c Kinh t??? Ch??u ?? Th??i B??nh D????ng n??m 2014, Trung Qu???c ???? ch??? ?????ng th??c ?????y vi???c hi???n th???c h??a FTAAP. Tuy nhi??n, t??? tr?????c ????, v??o ?????u n??m 2006, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o APEC ???? nh???t tr?? xem x??t v??? tri???n v???ng c???a FTAAP. T???i H???i ngh??? B??? tr?????ng v??o th??ng 5 n??m 2014, t???t c??? 21 th??nh vi??n APEC bao g???m c??? Hoa K??? v?? Trung Qu???c ???? ?????ng ?? thi???t l???p m???t nh??m nghi??n c???u ????? th???o lu???n v??? h?????ng ph??t tri???n cho FTAAP.

Trung Qu???c kh??ng h??? c?? ?? ?????nh ph???n ???ng l???i b???ng c??ch thi???t l???p c??c FTA ?????i ngh???ch ????? ch???ng l???i Hoa K???, do Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? th???y nh???ng th??ch th???c m?? c??n th???y c??c c?? h???i m?? TPP c?? th??? mang l???i, v?? d??? nh?? vi???c Trung Qu???c c?? th??? t???n d???ng h???c h???i nh???ng ti??u chu???n cao c???a c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p ph??t tri???n. Trung Qu???c h?????ng ?????n vi???c tr??? th??nh m???t n?????c ph??t tri???n t???m trung v??o gi???a th??? k??? 21.

????? hi???n th???c h??a m???c ti??u n??y, Trung Qu???c ???? thi???t l???p khu v???c T??? do Th????ng m???i Th?????ng H???i n??m 2013 v???i s??? ???ng h??? c???a Th??? t?????ng L?? Kh???c C?????ng. Khu v???c Th????ng m???i n??y ra ?????i nh???m l??nh h???i v?? ??p d???ng c??c ti??u chu???n v?? quy ?????nh qu???c t??? m???i gi???ng nh?? trong TPP v?? tri???n khai t??? do h??a ????n ph????ng v?? c??c c???i c??ch ?????c l???p. M???t m???t, b???ng c??ch ch??? ??p d???ng m???c ????? t??? do h??a s??u h??n v?? c??c ti??u chu???n cao h??n v??o m???t khu v???c c??? ?????nh, th??? nghi???m n??y c?? th??? (gi??p Trung Qu???c) ki???m so??t c??c t??c ?????ng v?? tr??nh gi??n ??o???n kinh t??? v?? x?? h???i quy m?? l???n. M???t kh??c, n?? s??? gi??p Trung Qu???c chu???n b??? c??c b?????c c???n thi???t ????? tham gia v??o TPP trong t????ng lai.

C??c qu???c gia ?????u c?? quy???n ????m ph??n c??c FTA r???ng l???n, ???????c th??c ?????y b???i nh???ng m???i quan t??m kh??c v??? ?????a ch??nh tr???, kinh t??? v?? th????ng m???i c???a ri??ng m??nh.

Tuy nhi??n, b???n th??n nh???ng cu???c ????m ph??n v??? c??c FTA r???ng l???n n??y c?? hai v???n ????? nghi??m tr???ng. Tr?????c h???t, c??c cu???c ????m ph??n s??? ti??u t???n c??c ngu???n l???c ch??nh tr??? v?? t??i ch??nh to l???n m?? ????ng l??? ra n?? ph???i ???????c s??? d???ng ????? k???t th??c v??ng ????m ph??n Doha. Th??? hai, c??c cu???c ????m ph??n n??y kh??ng gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? nh???y c???m nh??ng r???t h??? tr???ng ?????i v???i s??? ph??t tri???n b???n v???ng c???a n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u, v?? d??? nh?? h??? tr??? v?? tr??? c???p xu???t kh???u n??ng nghi???p trong n?????c, tr??? c???p th???y s???n v?? c??c quy ?????nh v??? ch???ng b??n ph?? gi??.

Ch??nh v?? l?? do ????, Trung Qu???c, Hoa K??? v?? c??c n???n kinh t??? l???n kh??c c?? th??? v?? n??n ch?? tr???ng h??n v??o c??ng vi???c t??i tham gia v??o WTO. Th???a thu???n ??a ph????ng l?? khu??n kh??? ph??p l?? hi???u qu??? nh???t hi???n c?? ????? ?????m b???o m???t m??i tr?????ng th????ng m???i kh??ng ph??n bi???t ?????i x??? gi???a t???t c??? c??c th??nh vi??n, ?????c bi???t l?? ?????i v???i nh???ng nh??m n?????c nh??? v?? ngh??o nh???t. ??i???u quan tr???ng nh???t l?? ph???i th??c ?????y to??n c???u h??a to??n di???n, m?? n???u kh??ng c?? n??, t??nh tr???ng ngh??o ????i t???t y???u s??? d???n ?????n kh???ng b??? v?? t???i ph???m.

Th???a thu???n th????ng m???i Bali Package m?? t???t c??? c??c th??nh vi??n WTO ?????ng ?? v??o th??ng 12 n??m 2013 ???? m??? ra hi v???ng cho c??c cu???c ????m ph??n ??a ph????ng. T???i Bali, c??c th??nh vi??n c??ng ???? h???a h???n c??ng nhau thi???t l???p n??n m???t ch????ng tr??nh h???u-Bali v??o cu???i n??m 2014 v???i m???c ti??u k???t th??c v??ng ????m ph??n Doha.

Th???i h???n n??y ???? g???n k???. Khi Ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c T???p C???n B??nh v?? T???ng th???ng M??? Obama g???p nhau t???i H???i ngh??? Th?????ng ?????nh APEC t???i B???c Kinh v??o th??ng M?????i m???t (ho???c s???m h??n) n??m nay, h??? kh??ng n??n t???p trung v??o TPP hay FTAAP. Thay v??o ????, c??? hai c???n ph???i c??ng th??? hi???n vai tr?? l??nh ?????o, s??? can d??? v?? cam k???t chung ????? k???t th??c v??ng ????m ph??n Doha, b???i ????y ch??nh l?? nh???ng g?? m?? Ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng v?? ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i ??ang r???t c???n.

Shuaihua Cheng l?? Gi??m ?????c ??i???u h??nh c???a Trung t??m Qu???c t??? v??? Th????ng m???i v?? Ph??t tri???n B???n v???ng Trung Qu???c.

Bi??n t???p: Nguy???n Th??? Nhung | B???n g???c ti???ng Anh: Yale Global

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