Th??? gi???i h??m nay 4/9/2019

Thứ tư - 04/09/2019 03:24
Ch??nh ph??? Anh ???? ????nh m???t th??? ??a s??? c???a m??nh (trong ngh??? vi???n) sau khi m???t ngh??? s?? ?????ng B???o th??? ???? ???????o ng????? sang ?????ng D??n ch??? T??? do (LD). Ngh??? s?? Philip Lee ???? b??? sang h??ng gh??? c???a LD khi Th??? t?????ng Boris Johnson ??ang ph??t bi???u tr?????c m???t cu???c b??? phi???u Brexit quan tr???ng. N???u ??ng Johnson thua cu???c b??? phi???u n??y, ??ng c?? th??? y??u c???u ti???n h??nh b???u c??? s???m v??o th??ng M?????i
Th??? gi???i h??m nay 4/9/2019

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 04/09/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

Ch??nh ph??? Anh ???? ????nh m???t th??? ??a s??? c???a m??nh (trong ngh??? vi???n) sau khi m???t ngh??? s?? ?????ng B???o th??? ???? ???????o ng????? sang ?????ng D??n ch??? T??? do (LD). Ngh??? s?? Philip Lee ???? b??? sang h??ng gh??? c???a LD khi Th??? t?????ng Boris Johnson ??ang ph??t bi???u tr?????c m???t cu???c b??? phi???u Brexit quan tr???ng. N???u ??ng Johnson thua cu???c b??? phi???u n??y, ??ng c?? th??? y??u c???u ti???n h??nh b???u c??? s???m v??o th??ng M?????i. ?????ng B???o th??? ???? ph???i d???a v??o c??c ?????i t??c B???c Ireland c???a m??nh ????? th??ng qua lu???t.

M???t ???y ban c???a Li??n H???p Qu???c g???i M???, Ph??p v?? Anh c?? th??? l?? c??c ?????ng l??a g??y n??n t???i ??c chi???n tranh ??? Yemen. C??c n?????c n??y cung c???p v?? kh?? cho ??? R???p Saudi, qu???c gia b??? c??o bu???c b??? ????i d??n th?????ng Yemen trong chi???n d???ch ch???ng l???i phi???n qu??n Houthi. Trong khi ????, ??? R???p Saudi th???m ch?? c??n h???a s??? g???i th??m qu??n t???i Yemen. V?? c??c l???c l?????ng m?? h??? ???ng h??? ???? b???t ?????u xung ?????t nhau.

Nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? Phong tr??o N??m sao c???p ti???n c???a Italia???? b??? phi???u ???ng h??? m???t li??n minh v???i ?????ng D??n ch??? trung t???, m??? ???????ng cho m???t ch??nh ph??? m???i s??? nh???m ch???c trong v??i ng??y t???i. Th???a thu???n c???a c??c b??n, ???????c ?????ng ?? v??o tu???n tr?????c sau s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??nh ph??? li??n minh gi???a N??m Sao v???i Li??n ??o??n ph????ng B???c ch???ng nh???p c??. L??nh ?????o c???a ?????ng n??y, Matteo Salvini, ???? k??u g???i b???u c??? tr?????c th???i h???n (nh??ng b???t th??nh).

T???ng th???ng Brazil Jair Bolsonaro s??? kh??ng tham d??? m???t h???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh m?? ch??nh ??ng ???? k??u g???i ????? th???o lu???n v??? c??c v??? ch??y ho??nh h??nh trong r???ng nhi???t ?????i Amazon. ??ng Bolsonaro s??? tr???i qua ca ph???u thu???t th??? ba li??n quan ?????n v???t th????ng t??? l???n b??? ????m trong khi v???n ?????ng tranh c??? h???i n??m ngo??i. V???n ch??a r?? li???u ??ng s??? g???i m???t ?????i di???n thay th??? hay ho??n h???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh, d??? ki???n ???????c t??? ch???c v??o th??? S??u.

Ph??p ????? ngh??? cung c???p cho Iran kho???n t??n d???ng tr??? gi?? 15 t??? ???? la ????? ?????i l???y vi???c Iran quay tr??? l???i c??c ??i???u kho???n c???a th???a thu???n qu???c t??? ????ng b??ng ch????ng tr??nh h???t nh??n c???a h??? v??o n??m 2015. T???i h???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh G7 h???i th??ng 8, t???ng th???ng Ph??p Emmanuel Macron ???? c??? g???ng s???p x???p m???t cu???c h???p gi???a ??ng Trump v?? nh?? l??nh ?????o Iran, Hassan Rouhani. ??ng Trump b??y t??? s??? quan t??m, nh??ng ??ng Rouhani y??u c???u c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t ph???i ???????c d??? b??? tr?????c.

HS2, m???t tuy???n ???????ng s???t cao t???c ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch n???i London v?? Birmingham, ph???i ?????i m???t v???i s??? tr?? ho??n t???i n??m n??m, theo B??? tr?????ng giao th??ng Anh. D??? ??n c?? s??? h??? t???ng l???n nh???t c???a Anh hi???n c?? th??? s??? kh??ng ho???t ?????ng cho ?????n n??m 2031. Chi ph?? d??? ki???n ???? t??ng t??? 62 t??? b???ng (75 t??? ???? la) l??n 81 t??? b???ng-88 t??? ????. Giai ??o???n th??? hai, ??i ?????n Manchester v?? Leeds, c??ng ???? b??? tr?? ho??n; c??c h??nh kh??ch ki??n nh???n c?? th??? mong ?????i c??c d???ch v??? n??y trong kho???ng th???i gian 2035-40.

Ng??n h??ng Tesco ???? b??n t??i kho???n th??? ch???p c???a h??? cho T???p ??o??n Ng??n h??ng Lloyds v???i gi?? 3,8 t??? b???ng (4,6 t??? ???? la). V??o th??ng 5, ng??n h??ng b??n l??? n??y tuy??n b??? s??? ng???ng cho vay m???i v?? b??n c??c kho???n vay th??? ch???p hi???n c??, v???i l?? do ?????i???u ki???n th??? tr?????ng ?????y th??ch th???c.??? C???nh tranh ???? ?????y l??i su???t th??? ch???p gi???m, si???t ch???t bi??n l???i nhu???n c???a c??c ng??n h??ng. Lloyds, sau khi ???? ????nh b???i c??c ng??n h??ng c???nh tranh, s??? c???ng c??? v??? tr?? c???a m??nh nh?? l?? ng?????i cho vay th??? ch???p l???n nh???t n?????c Anh.

TI??U ??I???M

Taliban th???a thu???n v???i M???

Sau ch??n v??ng ????m ph??n v???i Taliban, ?????c ph??i vi??n c???a M??? t???i Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad tu???n n??y ???? th??ng  tin v??? b???n d??? th???o th???a thu???n h??a b??nh. Th???a thu???n n??y ???v??? nguy??n t???c??? s??? bu???c M??? r??t 5.400 trong s??? 14.000 qu??n t???i Afghanistan trong v??ng 5 th??ng. Nh??ng M??? c?? th??? t???m d???ng vi???c r??t qu??n t??y thu???c v??o vi???c Taliban c?? tu??n th??? c??c ??i???u kho???n Th???a thu???n v?? ??i???u ki???n th???c ?????a hay kh??ng. Hai b??n ???? th???a hi???p. M??? t???ng kh???ng ?????nh Taliban ph???i ????m ph??n tr???c ti???p v???i ch??nh ph??? Afghanistan v??? m???t th???a thu???n ch??nh tr???. Nh??ng gi??? ????y, Taliban c?? kh??? n??ng mu???n gi???i quy???t v???n ????? v???i m???t nh??m tinh hoa ch??nh tr??? v?? ?????i di???n x?? h???i d??n s??? h??n.

V??? ph???n m??nh, Taliban ???? t???ng th??? s??? kh??ng bao gi??? ????m ph??n khi l??nh M??? v???n c??n tr??n ?????t Afghanistan. B??y gi??? h??? s??? ????m ph??n trong b???i c???nh m???t cu???c r??t qu??n ch???m r??i. B???t ch???p c??c cu???c t???n c??ng g???n ????y c???a Taliban (m???t trong s??? ???? x???y ra ngay gi???a cu???c ph???ng v???n ???????c ph??t s??ng c???a ??ng Khalilzad), Afghanistan ??ang ?????ng tr?????c cu???c ????m ph??n h??a b??nh nghi??m t??c l???n ?????u ti??n trong v??ng m???t th??? h???.

Kinh t??? Australia kh???i s???c sau c???t gi???m l??i su???t

Ch??a bao gi??? k??? t??? cu???c ?????i suy tho??i 2009 n???n kinh t??? Australia c???m nh???n r?? ??p l???c nh?? b??y gi???. N???u d??? ??o??n l?? ch??nh x??c, c??c s??? li???u ???????c c??ng b??? h??m nay s??? cho th???y GDP t??ng ch??? 0,5% trong Qu?? II ??? hay 1,4% theo n??m, th???p h??n m???t n???a so v???i m???c trung b??nh d??i h???n. Australia ph??? thu???c qu?? nhi???u v??o Trung Qu???c v??? kinh t???, v?? v???y cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i do M??? ti???n h??nh ???? khi???n h??? lo l???ng.

Ng??n h??ng Trung ????ng Australia, c??ng nh?? h??ng ch???c qu???c gia kh??c, ???? c???t gi???m l??i su???t xu???ng m???c th???p nh???t t??? tr?????c ?????n nay v?? c?? th??? s??? c???t gi???m m???t l???n n???a tr?????c cu???i n??m nay. Sau ???? h??? s??? b???t ?????u ???h???t ?????n.??? Nh??ng ??i???u ???? kh??ng c?? ngh??a l?? 27 n??m t??ng tr?????ng li??n t???c c???a Australia ???? k???t th??c. Vi???c c???t gi???m l??i su???t ???? th???i lu???ng gi?? m???i v??o th??? tr?????ng nh?? ?????t v?? c??c c??ng ty ??ang tuy???n d???ng. Ng??n s??ch ???????c c??n b???ng t???t v?? so v???i c??c n?????c gi??u kh??c, n??? c??ng ??ang gi???m d???n. C??c ch??nh tr??? gia v???n c?? c??c ngu???n l???c ????? b???o v??? n???n kinh t??? n???u m???i th??? tr??? n??n kh?? kh??n.

T??? l??? l??i su???t c???a Ng??n h??ng TW Australia.

??ng tr??m s??n t??i n??ng Nh???t B???n Johnny Kitagawa

M???t bu???i l??? h??m nay k??? ni???m cu???c ?????i c???a ??ng tr??m hu???n luy???n t??i n??ng ng??nh gi???i tr?? quy???n l???c nh???t Nh???t B???n. Johnny Kitagawa ???? ??i ti??n phong trong ???c??ng th???c??? nh??m nh???c nam (boy-band) v?? ??i???u h??nh m???t s??? nh??m nh???c pop th??nh c??ng nh???t c???a Nh???t trong 40 n??m qua. Tuy nhi??n, b??n c???nh danh ti???ng trong ng??nh gi???i tr??, cu???c ?????i ??ng ???n gi???u m???t s??? kh??a c???nh ??en t???i h??n. C??c c??o bu???c l???m d???ng t??nh d???c ???? ??m ???nh s??? nghi???p c???a ??ng. Sau khi m???t t???p ch?? th???c hi???n c??c cu???c ph???ng v???n v???i 12 n???n nh??n c??o bu???c ??ng v??o n??m 1999 m?? ??ng ???? c??? g???ng ki???n, T??a ??n t???i cao Tokyo cu???i c??ng ???? ra ph??n quy???t r???ng ??ng kh??ng th??? b??c b??? c??c l???i khai c???a m???t s??? c???u b?? li??n quan. Ph??n quy???t n??y ph???n l???n b??? b??? qua b???i c??c ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng ?????i ch??ng Nh???t B???n, do h??? ph??? thu???c r???t nhi???u v??o s??? ???n ?????nh c???a c??c ng??i sao do Kitagawa h???u thu???n.

M???c d?? ??ng ???? qua ?????i h???i th??ng 7, ??? tu???i 87, r???t ??t ng?????i mong ?????i m???t s??? x??t l???i c??ng khai. Kh??ng gi???ng nh?? Jimmy Savile, m???t ng??i sao truy???n h??nh ng?????i Anh v???n l???m d???ng h??ng tr??m tr??? em, di s???n c???a Kitagawa l?? r???t l???n. C??ng ty qu???n l?? t??i n??ng m?? ??ng th??nh l???p v???n th???ng tr??? l???ch chi???u tr??n truy???n h??nh. V?? s??? k??nh tr???ng m?? ng?????i ta d??nh cho ??ng sau khi m???t c??ng l??m cho c??c c??o bu???c l???m d???ng tr??? n??n m??? nh???t.

Cu???c chi???n gi???a c??c ?????i gia: Mediaset vs Vivendi

M???t cu???c b??? phi???u h??m nay b???i c??c c??? ????ng c???a Mediaset s??? quy???t ?????nh ai l?? ng?????i s??? chi???n th???ng trong cu???c ?????u c??ng th???ng gi???a hai t??? ph?? ch??u ??u. 40% c??? ph???n c???a ????i truy???n h??nh Italia n??y thu???c s??? h???u c???a gia ????nh ??ng Silvio Berlusconi, c???u th??? t?????ng ??. ??ng mu???n s??p nh???p c??c ????n v??? Italia v?? T??y Ban Nha c???a c??ng ty. Vivendi, m???t t???p ??o??n c???a Ph??p do Vincent Bollor?? ki???m so??t, ??ang n???m 29% c??? ph???n c???a Mediaset, l???i mu???n c???n tr??? ??ng Berlusconi. H??? ngh?? r???ng vi???c h???p nh???t s??? mang l???i cho ??ng Berlusconi ph???n s??? h???u qu?? l???n trong li??n doanh m???i.

N???u c?? c?? c?????c h??y ?????t ti???n c???a b???n v??o c???a Berlusconis. M???t t??a ??n ??? ?? ???? ph??n quy???t Vivendi ch??? c?? th??? th???c hi???n m???t ph???n quy???n b??? phi???u c???a m??nh trong cu???c b??? phi???u ng??y h??m nay, v?? c??? ph???n c??n l???i c???a h??? ??ang n???m trong m???t qu??? ???y th??c ?????c l???p. M???i th?? n??y b???t ngu???n t??? vi???c Vivendi th???t b???i trong vi???c mua l???i doanh nghi???p truy???n h??nh tr??? ti???n Mediaset h???i n??m 2016. V?? Mediaset quy???t t??m h???p nh???t nh???m ch???ng l???i c??c ?????i th??? th???m ch?? c??n ????ng s??? h??n: Netflix v?? Amazon, nh???ng doanh nghi???p ph??t s??ng tr???c tuy???n ??ang ??e d???a c??c ????i truy???n h??nh ch??u ??u.

T???p ??o??n Thales b??o c??o k???t qu??? kinh doanh

Thales, m???t t???p ??o??n ??i???n t??? c???a Ph??p c?? thu nh???p ph???n l???n t??? ho???t ?????ng kinh doanh qu???c ph??ng, s??? b??o c??o k???t qu??? kinh doanh n???a ?????u n??m v??o h??m nay. H??? d?????ng nh?? ???? ?????t ???????c k???t qu??? kh??? quan. Doanh thu v?? l???i nhu???n c?? th??? s??? t??ng l??n khi ng??n s??ch qu???c ph??ng gia t??ng ??? c??? c??c n?????c gi??u v?? m???i n???i. Trong khi ????, ho???t ?????ng d??n s??? c???a c??ng ty n??y ??ang ???????c h?????ng l???i t??? s??? t??ng tr?????ng d??i h???n c???a giao th??ng h??ng kh??ng to??n c???u, ???? th??? h??a v?? b???o v??? d??? li???u.

Thales chuy??n v??? radar qu??n s??? v?? h??? th???ng li??n l???c, c??ng nh?? cung c???p c??c h??? th???ng ki???m so??t kh??ng l??u v?? gi???i tr?? tr??n m??y bay. H??? c??ng ki??m lu??n x??y d???ng c?? s??? h??? t???ng ???????ng s???t. C??ng ty g???n ????y ???? ho??n t???t vi???c mua l???i Gemalto, m???t c??ng ty b???o m???t k??? thu???t s??? c???a H?? Lan, l??nh v???c r???t quan tr???ng ?????i v???i qu??n ?????i c??ng nh?? ?????i v???i m???t th??? gi???i d??n s??? ng??y c??ng ph??? thu???c v??o truy???n th??ng k??? thu???t s???. C??c kh??ch h??ng c???a Thales bao g???m c??c ng??n h??ng, nh?? khai th??c vi???n th??ng, c??c doanh nghi???p ti???n ??ch c??ng v?? c??c c?? quan ch??nh ph??? ??? nh???ng l??nh v???c m?? h???u nh?? kh??ng c?? m???t h??? s?? ???s???ch??? n??o trong vi???c gi??? an to??n d??? li???u cho c??c kh??ch h??ng.
P/vTheo Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t???
 

#20 ??? Nh???t B???n trong l??ng Ch??u ??

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Ngu???n: Green, Michael (2008). ???Japan in Asia???, in David Shambaugh & Michael Yahuda (eds), International Relations of Asia (Maryland: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers), pp. 170-191.

Bi??n d???ch: ??inh Nguy???n Lan H????ng | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Trong b??i lu???n v??o cu???i th???i k??? Tokugawa, L?? lu???n c???a ba k??? say v??? Ch??nh ph???, Nakae Chomin ???? h??nh dung ra m???t v??? ch??? nh?? v??o m???t bu???i t???i ???? c??ng hai ng?????i b???n r?????u c???a m??nh tranh c??i trong h??i men v??? t????ng lai c???a Nh???t B???n ??? ch??u ??. M???t trong hai b???n r?????u c???a ??ng ta l?? m???t ???qu?? ??ng T??y h???c???, ??n m???c theo phong c??ch ph????ng T??y v?? ca t???ng nh???ng ??u ??i???m c???a d??n ch???, quy???n c?? nh??n v?? ph??t tri???n kinh t???. Ng?????i kia m???c qu???n ??o truy???n th???ng c???a m???t samurai v?? b???o v??? cho chi???n l?????c ch??nh tr??? hi???n th???c c???a vi???c b??nh tr?????ng qu??n s??? nh???m h???t c???ng Trung Qu???c v?? n?????c Anh ?????ch th???, tr??? th??nh m???t th??? l???c ????? qu???c c?? s???c ???nh h?????ng l???n ??? ch??u ??. Cu???i c??ng, v??? ch??? nh?? ???? k???t lu???n r???ngNh???t B???n ph???i c??n b???ng c??? hai, ph???i n???m l???y tri th???c ph????ng T??y v?? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? ?????ng th???i m??? r???ng th??? l???c c???a Nh???t B???n t???i ch??u ??. K???t lu???n n??y ???? khi???n ng?????i ?????c ?? th???c s??u s???c v??? m??u thu???n kh??ng gi???i quy???t ???????c gi???a hai t???m nh??n t????ng lai c???a Nh???t B???n n???i l??n trong giai ??o???n xu???t hi???n nh???ng Con t??u ??en c???a Thuy???n tr?????ng Perry v?? c???i c??ch Minh Tr??? n??y.1

T??m ki???m chi???n l?????c

??t c?? qu???c gia n??o trong l???ch s??? d???n v???t v???i s??? ng??? v???c ch??nh chi???n l?????c qu???c gia c???a m??nh nh?? Nh???t B???n. C??ng c?? ??t ?????t n?????c ki??n ?????nh v???i l???i ??ch qu???c gia ho???c ?? th???c s??u s???c v??? c??c m???i quan h??? quy???n l???c xung quanh h??? nh?? ?????t n?????c n??y. ?????i v???i Nh???t B???n, nh???ng y???u t??? gi??p ?????nh h?????ng chi???n l?????c qu???c gia v??? c?? b???n v???n y h???t nh?? th???i k??? L?? lu???n c???a ba k??? say v??? Ch??nh ph???: theo ??u???i quy???n t??? tr??? v?? v??? th??? ???????c t??n tr???ng trong h??? th???ng qu???c t??? d???a tr??n s??? t??nh to??n v??? s???c m???nh ?????a ch??nh tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c (c??ng v???i Tri???u Ti??n nh?? l?? m???t ch???t x??c t??c kh??c) v?? s??? chung s???ng v???i c???u tr??c quy???n l???c qu???c t??? hi???n h??nh.2 M???c d?? c??c y???u t??? ?????nh h?????ng n??y ???? kh??ng ?????i trong su???t l???ch s??? Nh???t B???n hi???n ?????i, c??c c??ng c??? ???????c s??? d???ng l???i ??a d???ng m???t c??ch ????ng ng???c nhi??n. Tr??n th???c t???, Nh???t B???n ???? t??? c??ch t??n b???n th??n ??? nh???ng giai ??o???n kh??c nhau trong l???ch s??? ????? t???i ??a h??a ngu???n l???c s???c m???nh qu???c gia v?? quy???n t??? tr??? t????ng ?????i c???a m??nh ph?? h???p v???i b???i c???nh h??? th???ng qu???c t??? trong t???ng giai ??o???n. C?? l??c, Nh???t B???n ???? ??i theo con ???????ng c???a qu?? ??ng T??y h???c; khi kh??c th?? l???i ??i theo con ???????ng c???a m???t qu?? ??ng truy???n th???ng.

V??o cu???i th??? k??? 19, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o th???i Minh Tr??? ????a ra chi???n l?????c d???a tr??n kh???u hi???u b???n ch??? fukukoku kyohei hay ???ph?? qu???c/c?????ng binh???, v???n d???ng T??y h???c ????? x??y d???ng qu???c gia c?????ng th???nh v?? t??? ???? t???o ra m???t l???c l?????ng h???i qu??n v?? qu??n ?????i hi???n ?????i. K???t qu??? th???t ????ng kinh ng???c, t??? n??m 1860 ?????n n??m 1938, t??? l??? GDP c???a Nh???t B???n trong GDP th??? gi???i t??ng t??? m???c ch??? 2,6% l??n 3,8%; trong khi Nh???t B???n ???? kh???ng ?????nh b???n th??n m??nh l?? m???t ?????i th??? tranh gi??nh s??? th???ng tr??? m???t n???a th??? gi???i.3 Vi???c ????nh b???i Trung Qu???c n??m 1895 v?? Nga n??m 1905 ???? truy???n s???c m???nh cho c??c nh?? d??n t???c ch??? ngh??a tr??? v?? nh???ng ng?????i ch???ng ch??? ngh??a ????? qu???c tr??n to??n ch??u ??; v?? c??c nh?? chi???n l?????c Nh???t B???n ???? ph??i thai n??n m???t ch??? ngh??a Li??n ?? mang t??nh l?? t?????ng ch??? ngh??a d???a tr??n kinh nghi???m c???a ch??nh Nh???t B???n v??? wakon/yosai, hay c??n g???i l?? ???tinh th???n Nh???t B???n v?? T??y h???c???. Ch??? ngh??a l?? t?????ng Li??n ?? ???? ???? s???m nh?????ng ch??? cho m???t tr???t t??? ????? qu???c ch??? ngh??a x???u x?? h??n g???p nhi???u l???n m?? c?? s??? l?? h??? th???ng th??? b???c truy???n th???ng c???a ch??u ?? c??ng m???t s??? k???t h???p ?????y nguy hi???m gi???a t??m l?? m???t an ninh ch???ng l???i ph????ng T??y c???ng v???i s??? ??p b???c d???a tr??n s???c m???nh ??u vi???t ch???ng l???i c??c qu???c gia ph????ng ????ng. Nh???t B???n c??ng ???? m???c sai l???m khi li??n minh v???i ?????c Qu???c x?? khi nh???m l???n v??? c??c xu th??? trong c???u tr??c quy???n l???c th??? gi???i. K???t qu??? l?? m???t th???m h???a cho c??? Nh???t B???n l???n ch??u ??.

Sau chi???n tranh, Nh???t B???n bu???c ph???i th??ch nghi v???i c???u tr??c quy???n l???c th??? gi???i m???i d?????i s??? ???nh h?????ng c???a ????? qu???c M??? v?? s???p x???p l???i c??c th??? ch??? c???a m??nh ????? t???i ??a h??a s???c m???nh v?? quy???n t??? tr??? c???a Nh???t B???n trong b???i c???nh m???i. D?????i s??? cai tr??? ?????y kh??o l??o c???a Th??? t?????ng Yoshida Shigeru, Nh???t B???n ???? ti???p nh???n c??c th??? ch??? d??n ch??? v?? thi???t l???p quan h??? li??n minh v???i M???, ?????ng th???i ?????m b???o r???ng ??i???u 9 Hi???n ph??p v??? ch??? ngh??a h??a b??nh ???????c th??? ch??? h??a trong lu???t ph??p v?? ch??nh s??ch qu???c gia nh???m kh??ng r??i v??o c??i b???y chi???n l?????c Chi???n tranh l???nh c???a M???. Nh???t B???n ch??? x??y d???ng qu???c ph??ng ??? m???c t???i thi???u ????? duy tr?? cam k???t qu??n s??? v???i M??? ?????ng th???i t???p trung v??o vi???c kh??i ph???c kinh t??? v?? theo ??u???i m???i quan h??? m???i v???i ch??u ?? ??? bao g???m c??? Trung Qu???c ??? d???a tr??n th????ng m???i.

V??o giai ??o???n cu???i c???a Chi???n tranh L???nh, nhi???u nh?? chi???n l?????c Nh???t B???n b???t ?????u tranh lu???n r???ng m?? h??nh m???i v??? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? c???a Nh???t B???n ???? v?????t qua ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n truy???n th???ng v?? s??? ????a Nh???t B???n v??o v??? tr?? c???a m???t ch??? th??? c?? s???c ???nh h?????ng l???n trong th??? k??? 21, t??? do theo ??u???i c??c ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i ????????c l???p??? v?? ?????nh h??nh m???t tr???t t??? kinh t??? ch??u ?? m???i m?? kh??ng c?? c??c c??ng c??? qu??n s??? truy???n th???ng, ?????ng th???i li??n minh v???i si??u c?????ng ?????c nh???t tr??n th??? gi???i nh??ng kh??ng ph??? thu???c v??o n??. Tuy nhi??n, vi???n c???nh n??y ???? b??? ph?? v??? v??o nh???ng n??m 1990 khi Nh???t B???n l???ng im kh??ng h??nh ?????ng trong su???t Chi???n tranh V??ng V???nh, ????nh m???t m?? h??nh kinh t??? kh??? t??n sau s??? s???p ????? c???a n???n kinh t??? bong b??ng, kh??ng th??? t???n d???ng s??? ph???c thu???c l???n nhau v??? kinh t??? nh???m ?????nh h??nh s??? ph??t tri???n nhanh ch??ng c???a Trung Qu???c v??? qu??n s??? v?? chi???n l?????c, v?? b??? ??e d???a b???i m???t B???c Tri???u Ti??n theo ??u???i ph??t tri???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n. Sau g???n m???t th???p k??? dao ?????ng v?? kh??ng ch???c ch???n, Nh???t B???n b???t ?????u l???y l???i ni???m tin v???i Th??? t?????ng Koizumi Junichiro (2001-2006) v?? thu h??t s??? ch?? ?? c???a th??? gi???i v???i m???t s??? quy???t ??o??n m???i v??? an ninh qu???c t??? v?? n???i l???ng nh???ng r??ng bu???c h???u chi???n truy???n th???ng li??n quan ?????n ??i???u 9 Hi???n ph??p. Nh??ng sau ????, chi???n l?????c qu???c gia c???a Nh???t d?????ng nh?? l???i ti???p t???c tr??? n??n thi???u r?? r??ng khi ng?????i k??? nhi???m Koizumi, Abe Shinzo, ???? v?????ng ph???i nh???ng v???p v??p ch??nh tr??? v??o n??m 2007.

Vi???c t??m ki???m chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t B???n ???? l??m ph???c t???p v?? phong ph?? th??m c??c thuy???t v??? quan h??? qu???c t???. Nh???ng ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c c???u tr??c truy???n th???ng nh?? Henry Kissinger v?? Herman Kahn ???? l???p lu???n r???ng kh??ng th??? t?????ng t?????ng ???????c Nh???t B???n l???i c?? th??? ph??t tri???n s???c m???nh kinh t??? m?? kh??ng thi???t l???p s???c m???nh qu??n s??? bao g???m c??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n t????ng x???ng.4 Nh???ng ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a ki???n t???o nh?? Peter Katzenstein ???? ph??t tri???n nh???ng l?? thuy???t c?? th??? kh??i qu??t h??a ???????c xung quanh v?? d??? v??? Nh???t B???n b???ng c??ch cho r???ng v??n h??a ch??nh tr??? Nh???t B???n th???c s??? ???? thay ?????i do ch??? ngh??a h??a b??nh ???????c c???ng c??? th??ng qua c??c chu???n t???c h???u chi???n v?? c??c th??? ch??? d???a tr??n ??i???u 9 Hi???n ph??p.C??c thuy???t x??t l???i c???a ng??nh kinh t??? ch??nh tr??? qu???c t??? ???? n??? r??? trong nh???ng n??m 1980 v?? ?????u nh???ng n??m 1990 v???i ?? t?????ng r???ng tr??n th???c t??? Nh???t B???n ???? x??y d???ng m???t m?? h??nh m???i v??? t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? theo h?????ng pha tr???n c??ng ngh??? v?? ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c c??ng c??c m???ng l?????i s???n xu???t ??? ch??u ??.6 Richard Samuels v?? Eric Heginbotham ???? quay tr??? l???i v???i c??c thuy???t hi???n th???c v??? quan h??? qu???c t??? ????? cho r???ng h??nh vi c???a Nh???t B???n l?? theo ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c, nh??ng d???a tr??n t?? t?????ng ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c ???tr???ng th????ng??? m???i h??n l?? c??c kh??i ni???m l???y s???c m???nh qu??n s??? l??m tr???ng t??m truy???n th???ng c???a thuy???t t??n hi???n th???c hay c??c bi???n th??? kh??c g???n ????y c???a l?? thuy???t kinh t???.7 T??i ???? l???p lu???n trong b??i Japan???s Reluctant Realism [Ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c mi???n c?????ng c???a Nh???t B???n] n??m 2001 r???ng v??n h??a chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t B???n ??ang chuy???n t??? ch??? ngh??a h??a b??nh truy???n th???ng v?? b??? ?????ng sang h??nh vi c??n b???ng quy???n l???c r?? r??ng h??n nh???m ???ng ph?? v???i s??? gia t??ng nh???ng ??e d???a t??? b??n ngo??i c??ng nh?? th???t b???i c???a c??c c??ng c??? kinh t??? truy???n th???ng trong vi???c gi??p n?????c n??y t??ng c?????ng an ninh.8 Trong nghi??n c???u quan tr???ng v??? l???ch s??? v?? s??? h???i sinh c???a t?? t?????ng chi???n l?????c Nh???t B???n, Kenneth Pyle ???? ????a ra lu???n ??i???m r???t thuy???t ph???c v??o n??m 2007 r???ng Nh???t B???n lu??n lu??n theo ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c v?? ??ang ng?????c l???i qu?? kh??? theo nhi???u kh??a c???nh b???i n?? ??ang mu???n ????i l???i quy???n l???i c???a m??nh ??? ch??u ??.9

??i???u n???i l??n t??? c??c nghi??n c???u kh??c nhau v??? t?? t?????ng chi???n l?????c Nh???t B???n l?? qu?? tr??nh r?? r??ng trong vi???c th??? nghi???m v?? kh??m ph?? nh???ng c??ng c??? cho ph??p Nh???t B???n t???i ??a h??a quy???n t??? tr??? v?? quy???n l???c theo hai y???u t??? ?????nh h?????ng ???????c n??u tr?????c ????: t??nh to??n s???c m???nh ?????a ch??nh tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c (v?? Tri???u Ti??n) v?? s??? chung s???ng v???i c???u tr??c quy???n l???c qu???c t??? hi???n h??nh. Nh??ng c??c th??? ch??? v?? chu???n t???c c???a Nh???t v???n c???ng nh???c v?? kh??ng linh ho???t, g??y kh?? kh??n cho vi???c t??m ki???m m???t chi???n l?????c m???i ngay c??? khi c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Nh???t B???n n??? l???c m???t l???n n???a ????? s???p x???p l???i b??? c??ng c??? c???a m??nh khi m?? b???i c???nh ?????a ch??nh tr??? ch??u ?? ??ang b?????c v??o m???t giai ??o???n b???t ???n.

Ph???n c??n l???i c???a ch????ng n??y s??? n??i r?? h??n v??? b??? c??ng c??? ????, ????nh gi?? nh???ng g?? ???? ho???c kh??ng c?? hi???u qu??? ?????i v???i Nh???t B???n trong b???i c???nh ch??u ?? ng??y nay v?? nh???ng y???u t??? n??o c?? kh??? n??ng l?? ti??u bi???u nh???t cho chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t B???n trong nh???ng n??m ti???p theo. Ch????ng n??y ???????c chia th??nh n??m ph???n. Ph???n m???t b???t ?????u v???i vi???c xem x??t nh???ng c??ng c??? ???????c coi l?? h???a h???n nh???t cho t???i c??ch ????y m???t th???p k??? ??? m???i quan h??? g???n g??i v???i Trung Qu???c v?? vai tr?? l??nh ?????o v??? kinh t??? trong vi???c mang l???i m???t tr???t t??? m???i cho khu v???c ??? v?? c??ch th???t b???i trong nh???ng l??nh v???c n??y ???? thay ?????i chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t B???n v?? vi???c s??? d???ng nh???ng c??ng c??? ???? ng??y nay nh?? th??? n??o. Ph???n hai s??? xem x??t s??? quay tr??? l???i c???a Nh???t B???n v???i tr???ng t??m chi???n l?????c c???a n?? ??? ch??u ??: li??n minh v???i M???, c??c c?? h???i v?? s??? ph???c t???p m?? li??n minh n??y mang l???i. Ph???n th??? ba kh???o s??t chi???n l?????c c??n b???ng c???a Nh???t B???n ??? ch??u ?? trong ba l??nh v???c. Ph???n th??? t?? ????nh gi?? chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t B???n trong vi???c ?????nh h??nh s??? h???i nh???p v?? x??y d???ng th??? ch??? ??? khu v???c. Ph???n th??? n??m xem x??t l???i nh???ng v???n ????? l???ch s??? ????? l???i, t???i sao gi???i l??nh ?????o Nh???t B???n l???i g???p kh?? kh??n trong vi???c gi???i quy???t ch??ng, v?? ????u l?? nh???ng l??nh v???c m?? nh???ng v???n ????? ???? l??m ho???c kh??ng l??m ph????ng h???i ???nh h?????ng c???a Nh???t B???n. Cu???i c??ng, ch????ng n??y s??? k???t th??c v???i vi???c xem x??t l???i nh???ng bi???n s??? c?? th??? khi???n Nh???t B???n ??i theo m???t h?????ng kh??c b???ng m???t b??? c??ng c??? ho??n to??n kh??c so v???i b??? c??ng c??? ???? ???????c xem x??t ??? ????y.

Nh??n t??? Trung Qu???c

Khi Nh???t B???n tr???i d???y t??? ?????ng tro t??n c???a Th??? chi???n th??? hai v?? chu???n b??? t??i h??a nh???p v???i c???ng ?????ng qu???c t???, gi???i tinh hoa theo xu h?????ng b???o th??? ???? ????a ra nh???ng ?? ki???n kh??c nhau v??? vi???c m???t Nh???t B???n d??n ch??? h??a ho??n to??n m???i s??? ????ng m???t vai tr?? nh?? th??? n??o. M???t s??? quan ch???c c?? c???a B??? C??ng th????ng, nh?? Kishi Nobusuke, mu???n li??n minh ch???t ch??? v???i M??? ????? ch???ng l???i ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n, th???m ch?? h???p t??c [v???i M???] sau chi???n tranh Tri???u Ti??n nh???m bi???n Nh???t B???n tr??? th??nh m???t kho v?? kh?? ??? ch??u ??. Trong khi ????, nh???ng ng?????i kh??c, nh?? l??nh ?????o ?????ng D??n ch??? Hatoyama Ichiro, l???i mu???n ?????c l???p h??n v???i M??? th??ng qua vi???c k?? m???t Hi???p ?????c H??a b??nh v???i Nga (?????n th???i ??i???m hi???n t???i v???n ch??a k??) v?? s???a ?????i l???i Hi???n ph??p Nh???t B???n. Nh??ng c??c b??n kh??c v???n mu???n tr??nh vi???c t??ng c?????ng qu??n ?????i v?? lo s??? ??i???u n??y s??? ????a Nh???t B???n ??i theo l???i m??n chi???n tranh m???t l???n n???a. C??c phe ph??i kh??c nhau n??y ???? ???????c k??o v??o c??ng m???t li??n minh c???m quy???n b???i Yoshida Shigeru, ng?????i ???? ????a ra m???t chi???n l?????c ????n gi???n cho Nh???t B???n v???n gom t???t c??? nh???ng ch??nh tr??? gia theo xu h?????ng b???o th??? v??o c??ng m???t m??i nh?? v?? ?????m b???o r???ng li??n minh ???? s??? th???ng tr??? n???n ch??nh tr??? Nh???t B???n v?? g???t nh???ng ng?????i theo t?? t?????ng x?? h???i v?? c???ng s???n ra l??? trong su???t n???a th??? k??? t???i.

Tuy nhi??n, b??n d?????i m??i nh?? b???o th??? ???? c??ng c?? nh???ng ?? ki???n tr??i chi???u v??? ch??u ?? v?? ?????c bi???t l?? Trung Qu???c. Yoshida ???? ????a ra quan ??i???m ch??nh xuy??n su???t c??n c??? tr??n m???t gi??? ?????nh s??ng su???t r???ng Trung Qu???c c???ng s???n cu???i c??ng c??ng d???t ra kh???i Li??n X?? v?? x??ch l???i g???n Nh???t B???n v?? l?? do th????ng m???i. Trong khi nh???ng ng?????i b???o th??? ???ch???ng l???i quan ??i???m ch??nh th???ng n??y??? ti???p t???c ???ng h??? C???ng h??a Trung Hoa (????i Loan), nh???ng ng?????i thu???c phe Yoshida ???? ?????m b???o r???ng Nh???t B???n s??? tr??nh v?????ng v??o v???n ????? an ninh c???a ????i Loan ho???c ?????i ?????u v???i B???c Kinh theo ???y quy???n c???a M???. Th??? t?????ng Sato Eisaku ???? ?????ng ?? trong m???t b???n tuy??n b??? chung v???i T???ng th???ng Nixon r???ng Nh???t B???n c?? l???i ??ch trong vi???c ?????m b???o ???n ?????nh eo bi???n ????i Loan v??o n??m 1969, nh??ng ??ng l??m v???y ch??? b???i mu???n c?? ???????c cam k???t c???a Nixon trong vi???c tr??? l???i ch??? quy???n Okinawa cho Nh???t B???n. Kh??ng c?? b?????c ti???p theo n??o trong qu???c ph??ng hay chi???n l?????c ?????i ngo???i. Tr??n th???c t???, trong c??ng th???i ??i???m, Nh???t B???n ???? ??m th???m m??? r???ng quan h??? kinh t??? v???i Trung Qu???c th??ng qua quan h??? th????ng m???i b??n ch??nh th???c ???L-T??? (Liao Chengzhi v?? Tatsunosuke Takasaki), v?? sau chuy???n th??m n??m 1972 c???a Kissinger ?????n Trung Qu???c, Th??? t?????ng Nh???t B???n Tanaka Kakuei ???? ngay l???p t???c b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? v???i B???c Kinh (tr??n b???y n??m tr?????c khi Washington th???c hi???n ??i???u n??y). N??m 1978, Nh???t B???n v?? Trung Qu???c ???? k?? Hi???p ?????c H???u ngh???, cho ph??p Trung Qu???c b???t ?????u c??c kho???n vay b???ng ?????ng y??n, v???n ???????c Nh???t B???n coi l?? vi???n tr???, c??n B???c Kinh l???i coi ???? l?? kho???n ?????n b?? chi???n tranh c???a Nh???t cho Trung Qu???c (l??n t???i h??n 1 t??? ???? la M??? v??o th???i ??i???m cao nh???t ?????u nh???ng n??m 1990). Nh???t B???n c??ng ????ng vai tr?? m??i gi???i ????? gi??p Trung Qu???c v?? ph????ng T??y h??n g???n l???i v???i nhau sau s??? ki???n Thi??n An M??n ng??y 6/4/1989, ph?? v??? ch??? ????? tr???ng ph???t c???a ph????ng T??y ????a ra t???i H???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh Houston n??m 1990. S??? ti??n ??o??n c???a Yoshida ch??nh x??c m???t c??ch k??? l???, v?? nh???ng tr?? th???c Nh???t B???n b???t ?????u ???ng h??? cho m???t m???i quan h??? tay ba ???c??n b???ng??? h??n gi???a B???c Kinh, Washington v?? Tokyo.

Tuy nhi??n, gi???a nh???ng n??m 1990, m???i quan h??? gi???a Nh???t B???n v???i Trung Qu???c ?????t nhi??n b???t ?????u thay ?????i. Yoshida ???? ????ng v??? m???c ????? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau c???a kinh t??? Trung-Nh???t, nh??ng ??ng kh??ng l?????ng tr?????c ???????c nh???ng kh?? kh??n trong vi???c d??ng s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau n??y ????? ?????nh h??nh h??nh vi ???ng x??? c???a Trung Qu???c. B?????c ngo???t ???? x???y ra v??o ng??y 15/5/1995, khi Trung Qu???c th??? nghi???m v?? kh?? h???t nh??n t???i c?? s??? Lop Nor. C??c nh?? ngo???i giao Nh???t B???n ???? c???nh b??o r???ng m???i quan h??? kinh t??? Trung ??? Nh???t v?? vi???c cho vay b???ng ?????ng y??n s??? b??? ???nh h?????ng b???i cu???c th??? nghi???m n??y, v?? c??c ?????ng ph??i ch??nh tr??? Nh???t B???n d?? theo xu h?????ng g?? c??ng ?????u ch??? tr??ch B???c Kinh. Nh??ng c??c cu???c th??? nghi???m v???n ???????c ti???n h??nh. Th??ng 3/1996, Trung Qu???c ???? b???n t??n l???a xung quanh ?????o ????i Loan. Th??ng 4 n??m ????, Nh???t B???n v?? M??? ???? t??i kh???ng ?????nh li??n minh M???-Nh???t trong Tuy??n b??? an ninh chung gi???a Th??? t?????ng Hashimoto Ryutaro v?? T???ng th???ng Bill Clinton, v?? Tokyo ???? ?????ng ?? s???a ?????i ???????ng l???i qu???c ph??ng ????? l??n k??? ho???ch kh??ng ch??? cho nh???ng b???t tr???c trong Chi???n tranh L???nh xu???t ph??t t??? vi???c Li??n X?? c?? th??? t???n c??ng tr???c di???n v??o Nh???t B???n, m?? c??n cho ???nh???ng t??nh hu???ng x???y ra xung quanh Nh???t B???n g??y ???nh h?????ng tr???c ti???p ?????n an ninh n?????c n??y???. Trong su???t th???p k??? ti???p theo, s??? c???nh tranh Trung-Nh???t ???? tr??? th??nh m???t ?????c ??i???m kh??ng th??? nh???m l???n trong quan h??? qu???c t??? ch??u ??.

Nh???ng kinh nghi???m t??? nh???ng n??m 1990 ???? cho c??ng ch??ng v?? l??nh ?????o Nh???t B???n th???y c??c ?? ?????nh c???a Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch???c ch???n nh?? th??? n??o v?? vi???c Nh???t B???n thi???u trang b??? ra sao trong vi???c ?????nh h??nh h??nh vi ???ng x??? c???a Trung Qu???c: c??c c??ng c??? kinh t??? k??m hi???u qu??? so v???i d??? ki???n v?? t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c l??n ?????n hai con s??? m???t l??c trong khi Nh???t B???n r??i v??o t??nh tr???ng gi???m ph??t k??o d??i v?? kh??ng th??? v?????t ???????c m???c t??ng tr?????ng 2% m???i n??m ngay c??? trong k???ch b???n t???t nh???t. C??c m???i ??e d???a ngo???i giao v?? qu??n s??? c??? th??? c??ng gia t??ng trong th???p k??? ti???p theo. S??ch tr???ng qu???c ph??ng Nh???t B???n t??ng d???n m???c ????? c???nh b??o c???a m??nh v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c t??ng c?????ng qu??n ?????i, v???i l??u ?? trong n??m 2007 r???ng Trung Qu???c ???? n???m gi??? m???t ???con s??? ????ng k?????? c??c IRBM/MRBM (t??n l???a ?????n ?????o t???m trung-xa/ t???m trung) c?? th??? nh???m t???i Nh???t B???n, bao g???m DF-3 v?? DF-21, c??ng v???i c??c ch????ng tr??nh ph??t tri???n t??n l???a h??nh tr??nh, t??u ng???m m???i v?? m???t kho m??y bay chi???n ?????u th??? h??? th??? t?? ??ang gia t??ng bao g???m J-10, Su-27 v?? Su-30.10 M???t t??u ng???m Trung Qu???c ???? ??i v??ng quanh Nh???t B???n v??o n??m 2004 v?? sau ???? ???? x??m nh???p v??o l??nh h???i Nh???t B???n n??m 2005, v?? 3 t??u khu tr???c Trung Qu???c ???? ch??a n??ng s??ng v??o m??y bay tu???n tra P-3C c???a Nh???t B???n v???n ??ang gi??m s??t c??c ho???t ?????ng xung quanh ?????o ??i???u Ng?? v??o n??m 2005.11 Tr??n m???t tr???n ngo???i giao, c??c nh?? ngo???i giao Trung Qu???c ???? v???n ?????ng h??nh lang kh???p ch??u ?? v?? ch??u Phi v??o n??m 2005 nh???m ch???ng l???i nh???ng n??? l???c c???a Nh???t B???n trong vi???c gi??nh gh??? t???i H???i ?????ng B???o an Li??n Hi???p Qu???c d???a tr??n ????????ng thu???n??? r???ng Nh???t B???n kh??ng ch???u chu???c l???i l???i l???m c???a m??nh trong Th??? chi???n th??? hai.

Nh???ng thay ?????i trong ch??nh tr??? n???i b??? c???a Nh???t B???n ?????u v???a l??m ph???c t???p th??m, v???a b??? th??c ?????y b???i nh???ng di???n bi???n n??y. M???i quan h??? Trung-Nh???t trong su???t Chi???n tranh L???nh ???????c g??n gi??? b???i c??c phe theo quan ??i???m ch??nh th???ng c???a ?????ng D??n ch??? T??? do (LDP) v?? ?????c bi???t l?? phe c???a Th??? t?????ng Tanaka, l??nh ?????o ?????ng t??? n??m 1972 ?????n n??m 1993 v?? ???? duy tr?? s??? t???p trung v??o vi???c ph??t tri???n kinh t??? Nh???t B???n m?? kh??ng b??? chi ph???i b???i v???n ????? ?? th???c h???. C???u tr??c ch??nh tr??? Nh???t B???n ph???n ??nh c???u tr??c c???a Chi???n tranh L???nh, v?? v???i s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X??, phe c??nh t??? c???a Nh???t B???n ???? nhanh ch??ng tho??i tr??o, v?? phe c???a Tanaka v???n tr?????c kia chi???m ??u th??? gi??? d???n d???n ????nh m???t vai tr?? v??o tay c??c ch??nh tr??? gia b???o th??? th??? h??? tr??? ??? c??? ?????ng D??n ch??? T??? do v?? ?????ng D??n ch??? ?????i l???p m???i c???a Nh???t B???n, nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? c??c ch??nh s??ch quy???t ??o??n v?? kh??ng xin l???i c???a Hatoyama v?? Kishi. V???i th??? h??? m???i n??y, ?????i ?????u v???i Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? th??nh m???t v???n ????? kh??ng ch??? thu???c v??? an ninh qu???c gia m?? c??n l?? b???n s???c d??n t???c.

Trung Qu???c c??ng ???? ?????u tranh v???i m???t Nh???t B???n m?? n?? kh??ng l?????ng tr?????c ???????c. N??m 1978, Hi???p ?????c H??a b??nh v?? H???u ngh??? ???????c cho l?? ???? kh??p l???i m???i quan h??? song ph????ng d???a tr??n b???n ??n c???a T??a ??n t???i ph???m chi???n tranh Tokyo. Ch??? t???ch n?????c Trung Qu???c Giang Tr???ch D??n ???? tuy??n b??? trong chuy???n th??m th???t b???i ?????n Tokyo v??o th??ng 10 n??m 1998, r???ng ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? v???n ????? ch???p nh???n l???i xin l???i c???a Nh???t B???n, m?? l?? Nh???t B???n ph???i m??i m??i c???m th???y h???i h???n.12 Th???c t???, sau Hi???p ?????c n??m 1978, B???c Kinh th???y r???ng c?? th??? v???n ?????ng c??nh t??? v?? trung t??? ??? Nh???t B???n ch???ng l???i nh???ng n??? l???c s???a ?????i s??ch gi??o khoa ho???c c??c chuy???n th??m ch??nh th???c ?????n ?????n Yasukuni, n??i vinh danh nh???ng ng?????i ???? ch???t trong chi???n tranh c???a Nh???t B???n (bao g???m 13 t???i ph???m chi???n tranh lo???i A). Nh??ng theo nh???ng g?? Ch??? t???ch Giang Tr???ch D??n nh???n th???y trong su???t chuy???n th??m ?????n Tokyo n??m 1998, quan ??i???m ch??nh l??u ??ang d???ch chuy???n kh???i Trung Qu???c, v?? B???c Kinh c??ng g??y ??p l???c ki???m ch??? v???i c??c v???n ????? l???ch s??? nh???y c???m, c??ng lu???n Nh???t B???n l???i c??ng ???ng h??? m???t v??? Th??? t?????ng ki??n quy???t, ng?????i c?? th??? ti???p t???c h??nh ?????ng b???t ch???p nh???ng ??p l???c t??? Trung Qu???c. Kh??? n??ng hai ch??nh ph??? v?? hai h??? th???ng ch??nh tr??? c?? th??? x??? l?? c??c v???n ????? n??y ???? ??? m???c t??? nh???t trong n??m 2005-2006. Th??? t?????ng Koizumi nh???m ch???c n??m 2001 m?? kh??ng h??? c?? ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? n??o ch???ng ?????i Trung Qu???c v?? ???? ti???n h??nh chuy???n th??m ?????n c???u L?? C??u (Marco Polo) n??i cu???c chi???n Trung-Nh???t n??? ra n??m 1937 ????? b??y t??? s??? h???i ti???c c???a m??nh. Nh??ng ??ng c??ng h???a v???i Hi???p h???i c??c gia ????nh c?? ng?????i th??n ch???t trong chi???n tranh (Izzokai) trong m???t cu???c g???p ?????y n?????c m???t r???ng ??ng s??? ?????n ?????n Yasukuni ????? b??y t??? s??? t??n k??nh v???i nh???ng ng?????i th??n c???a h??? ???? ch???t trong chi???n tranh. Trung Qu???c ???? gi???n d??? v?? Ch??? t???ch H??? C???m ????o c??? g???ng thuy???t ph???c Koizumi ?????ng ??i ?????n ???? khi hai n?????c ??ang ??? th???i ??i???m c???n k??? H???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh Bangdung n??m 2005.13 Nh??ng Koizumi ???? h???a ch??? th???c hi???n ?????i???u n??n l??m??? ??? c?? ngh??a l?? ??ng v???n s??? ?????n th??m ?????n Yasukuni. H??? C???m ????o ???? c??ng khai tuy??n b??? s??? kh??ng c?? H???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh song ph????ng n??o v???i Koizumi cho t???i khi Th??? t?????ng Nh???t B???n h???a s??? kh??ng ?????n th??m ng??i ?????n. ??a s??? ng?????i d??n Nh???t B???n, k??? c??? nh???ng ng?????i t???ng kh??ng ???ng h??? chuy???n vi???ng th??m n??y, c??ng ???? ???ng h??? Koizumi th???c hi???n ??i???u ????.14 Khi c??c ????m ????ng Trung Qu???c t???n c??ng chi???c xe c???a m???t quan ch???c c???p cao Nh???t B???n sau khi Nh???t th???ng Trung Qu???c n??m 2005 t???i tr???n ?????u v??ng lo???i World Cup ??? ch??u ??, c???m nh???n c???a c??ng ch??ng Nh???t B???n coi m??nh nh?? l?? n???n nh??n c???a Trung Qu???c c??ng t??ng l??n.

Chuy???n th??m cu???i c??ng c???a Koizumi ?????n ?????n Yasukuni v???i t?? c??ch Th??? t?????ng di???n ra v??o ng??y 15/8/2007, ng??y k??? ni???m s??? ?????u h??ng c???a Nh???t B???n v?? c??ng l?? m???t ng??y r???t nh???y c???m ?????i v???i t???t c??? c??c k??? th?? c??ng nh?? n???n nh??n chi???n tranh c???a Nh???t B???n. Tuy nhi??n, tr??? tr??u thay, ??i???u n??y ???? m??? ra c??nh c???a cho ng?????i k??? nhi???m, Abe Shinzo (ng?????i hi???u chi???n h??n Koizumi v??? v???n ????? Trung Qu???c), ?????t ???????c m???t s??? h??m n??ng l???i quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c b???ng chuy???n th??m B???c Kinh ng??y 9/10/2007, n??i ??ng ???????c ????n ti???p n???ng nhi???t b???i d??n l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c v???n quan ng???i v??? vi???c suy gi???m ?????t ng???t m???i quan h??? Trung-Nh???t v?? nh???n th???y ??? Abe c?? h???i cho m???t s??? kh???i ?????u m???i. H??? C???m ????o kh??n ngoan kh??ng c??ng khai g??y s???c ??p bu???c Abe tr??nh xa Yasukuni, c??ng nh?? Abe ???? kh??n ngoan kh??ng h???a h???n g?? v???i c??c c??? tri v??? vi???c n??y.15 Ng?????i k??? nhi???m Abe, Fukuda Yasuo v?? Ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c H??? C???m ????o ???? c?? nh???ng chuy???n vi???ng th??m l???n nhau v??o ?????u n??m 2008. ??i???u n??y ???? gi??p c???i thi???n t???t h??n b???u kh??ng kh?? gi???a hai n?????c, nh??ng kh??ng gi???i quy???t ???????c g???c r??? c???a s??? c??ng th???ng v??? qu??n s???, t?? t?????ng v?? chi???n l?????c.

Th???i k??? ???kinh t??? ???m v?? ch??nh tr??? l???nh??? ???? th??ch th???c l?? thuy???t quan h??? qu???c t???, nh??ng l???i ?????c tr??ng cho tr???ng th??i quan h??? Trung-Nh???t trong th???i gian t???i. M???a mai nh???t l?? s??? kh??i ph???c kinh t??? Nh???t B???n n??m 2004-2006 sau nhi???u n??m ch???ng ????? v???i gi???m ph??t ????i h???i nh???ng c???i c??ch c???a Koizumi v?? m???t n???n kinh t??? ??ang tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ????? thu h??t h??ng xu???t kh???u Nh???t B???n, v???n cu???i c??ng s??? ???????c xu???t kh???u ti???p sang M??? sau khi ???????c l???p r??p ??? Trung Qu???c. Th????ng m???i Trung-Nh???t ???? v?????t qua th????ng m???i Nh???t-M??? trong n??m 2005, v?? theo th???ng k?? c???a Ng??n h??ng H???p t??c Qu???c t??? Nh???t B???n, c??c nh?? kinh doanh Nh???t B???n ti???p t???c xem Trung Qu???c l?? m???c ti??u ch??nh cho ?????u t?? tr???c ti???p ra n?????c ngo??i.16 Nh??ng d?? lu???n Nh???t B???n v??? Trung Qu???c kh??ng ???????c c???i thi???n sau khi tr?????t d???c t??? th???i k??? m?? quan ??i???m t??ch c???c chi???m ??u th??? trong su???t nh???ng n??m ho??ng kim 1980. (H??nh 8.1).

H??nh 8.1. Quan ??i???m c???a Nh???t B???n v??? Trung Qu???c

(Vui l??ng download v??n b???n ????? xem h??nh)

Ngu???n: ???Kh???o s??t v??? quan h??? ngo???i giao???, V??n ph??ng N???i c??c, Ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???n

Nh???ng th??ch th???c v??? ngo???i giao, qu??n s??? v?? t??m l?? ???????c ?????t ra b???i s??? tr???i d???y ?????t ng???t v?? m???t t????ng lai kh??ng ch???c ch???n c???a Trung Qu???c l?? ??i???u Nh???t B???n kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i. Ch??u ?? v???n duy tr?? tr???t t??? th??? b???c, v?? Nh???t B???n v?? Trung Qu???c ch??a bao gi??? h??ng m???nh c??ng l??c gi???ng nh?? b??y gi???. Tham v???ng c???a c??? hai n?????c c??ng m??u thu???n nhau.  C??? hai n?????c ?????u ???????c th??c ?????y b???i ?? th???c s??u s???c v??? s??? kh??ng ho??n thi???n. Trung Qu???c t??m ki???m s??? to??n v???n l??nh th??? v?? vi???c quay l???i v???i vai tr?? trung t??m ??? khu v???c, nh??ng n?? c??ng ph???i ?????i ?????u v???i Nh???t B???n ??ang t??m c??ch v?????t qua th???i k??? h???u chi???n v?? x??y d???ng l???i ni???m t??? h??o d??n t???c ???? ????nh m???t. S??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau v??? kinh t??? gi???a Nh???t B???n v?? Trung Qu???c t???o ra s??? ???n ?????nh trong m???i quan h??? song ph????ng gi???a hai n?????c, nh??ng kh??ng ph???i l?? s??? ch???c ch???n hay c?? th??? d??? ??o??n ???????c v??? h?????ng ??i t????ng lai c???a h???.

B??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n

Ch??? ?????ng sau Trung Qu???c v???i t?? c??ch l?? m???t bi???n s??? khu v???c c?? ???nh h?????ng nhi???u nh???t ?????n chi???n l?????c ngo???i giao Nh???t B???n ch??nh l?? b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n. V??? t?????ng th???i Minh Tr??? Yamagata Aritomo t???ng n???i ti???ng khi g???i b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n l?? ???con dao g??m chi???n l?????c nh???m v??o tr??i tim Nh???t B???n???. Tri???u Ti??n l?? con ???????ng truy???n th???ng m?? qua ???? m???i th??? b???t ngu???n t??? l???c ?????a ch??u ?? c?? th??? ?????n v???i Nh???t B???n, bao g???m c??? ?????o Ph???t, ch??? H??n, c??c cu???c x??m l?????c c???a qu??n M??ng, m??n m?? soba v?? c?? l??? c??? sushi (m???c d?? hi???n nay v???n ??ang g??y tranh c??i). Ch??nh m??u thu???n gi???a nh???ng ng?????i theo xu h?????ng hi???n ?????i h??a ???ng h??? Nh???t B???n v?? nh???ng ng?????i theo xu h?????ng truy???n th???ng ???ng h??? Trung Qu???c trong tri???u ????nh Tri???u Ti??n ???? khi???n Nh???t B???n r??i v??o cu???c chi???n v???i Trung Qu???c giai ??o???n 1894-1895, v?? ch??nh vi???c b??nh tr?????ng c???a Nga v??o M??n Ch??u v?? h?????ng t???i Tri???u Ti??n ???? d???n ?????n cu???c chi???n tranh Nga-Nh???t 1904-1905 khi Nh???t B???n t??m ki???m ???l???i th??? t???i ??a??? ????? b???o v??? l???i ??ch c???a m??nh ??? b??n ?????o n??y. S??? b??ng n??? chi???n tranh Tri???u Ti??n n??m 1950 l?? s??? ki???n h???u chi???n quan tr???ng h??n b???t k??? s??? ki???n n??o kh??c trong vi???c khi???n Nh???t B???n theo ??u???i qu??? ?????o ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao hi???n t???i, bao g???m vi???c h??nh th??nh li??n minh M???-Nh???t l???n ?????u ti??n v??o n??m 1951, b??n c???nh vi???c gi??p kh??i ph???c l???i n???n kinh t??? Nh???t B???n. Trong su???t Chi???n tranh L???nh, Nh???t B???n nhanh ch??ng c??? ph??i vi??n ?????n Washington ????? duy tr?? s??? ???ng h??? c???a ng?????i M??? ?????i v???i s??? hi???n di???n qu??n s??? ??? b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n, ????ng l??u ?? nh???t l?? sau khi T???ng th???ng ?????c c??? Jimmy Carter cam k???t v??o n??m 1976 r???ng ??ng r??t h???t qu??n ?????i M??? ra kh???i H??n Qu???c.17

Nh??ng ngay c??? khi Nh???t B???n h??nh ?????ng ????? duy tr?? cam k???t qu???c ph??ng c???a M??? t???i H??n Qu???c th?? c??c ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???n li??n ti???p c??ng c??? g???ng thi???t l???p m???i quan h??? c???a ri??ng h??? v???i b??n ?????o n??y tr??n l??nh v???c ngo???i giao l???n th????ng m???i. Quan h??? ngo???i giao ???????c thi???t l???p v???i Seoul n??m 1965 ??i k??m v???i m???t ch????ng tr??nh vi???n tr??? ????ng k??? t??? Nh???t B???n. B???c Tri???u Ti??n t??? ra kh?? kh??n h??n, nh??ng khi Nh???t B???n tho??t ra kh???i Chi???n tranh L???nh v???i m???t n???n kinh t??? m???nh v?? hi v???ng r???ng c??ng th???ng hai c???c trong h??? th???ng qu???c t??? s??? g??p ph???n t??m ra gi???i ph??p cho c??c v???n ????? v???i B??nh Nh?????ng, th?? ???? xu???t hi???n suy ngh?? l???c quan v??? vi???c b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? song ph????ng. ???????c th??c ?????y b???i kho???n mi???n gi???m h??ng n??m ?????c t??nh kho???ng 600 tri???u ???? la d??nh cho ng?????i Tri???u Ti??n ?????nh c?? ??? Nh???t (ph???n l???n kho???n ti???n n??y t??m ???????ng v??o t??i kho???n c???a c??c ch??nh tr??? gia ??? Tokyo) v?? b???i c?? h???i th??? hi???n s??ng ki???n ngo???i giao ?????c l???p c???a Nh???t B???n, l??nh ?????o LDP ?????y quy???n l???c Kanemaru Shin ???? ?????n th??m l??nh ?????o B???c Tri???u Ti??n Kim Nh???t Th??nh v??o n??m 1990 v?? r???i cu???c h???p v???i Kim Nh???t Th??nh v???i cam k???t ?????t c?????c cu???c ?????i ch??nh tr??? c???a m??nh v??o m???c ti??u b??nh th?????ng h??a ho??n to??n quan h??? song ph????ng trong m???t bu???i h???p b??o ?????y n?????c m???t. C??c cu???c ?????i tho???i v??? b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? Nh???t-Tri???u (C???ng h??a D??n ch??? Nh??n d??n Tri???u Ti??n) ???? di???n ra ng???t qu??ng k??? t??? ????. Nh??ng s??? l???c quanh quanh chuy???n th??m c???a Kanemaru c??ng kh??ng k??o d??i.

B???n ch???t thay ?????i c???a m???i ??e d???a B???c Tri???u Ti??n v???i Nh???t B???n tr??? n??n r?? r??ng h??n v??o n??m 1993 khi t??i li???u d??? b??o t??nh b??o qu???c gia M??? (NIE) b??? r?? r??? cho r???ng B??nh Nh?????ng c?? th??? ???? c?? bom [h???t nh??n], v?? sau ???? v??o n??m 1994 B??nh Nh?????ng ???? ph??ng t??n l???a Nodong bay qua Nh???t B???n (v??o th???i ??i???m ???? ng?????i ta ???? ngh?? r???ng n?? ???? r??i xu???ng Bi???n Nh???t B???n). Vi???c t??i c?? c???u ch??nh tr??? trong n?????c ??? Nh???t B???n c??ng c?? t??c ?????ng. Nhi???u l??nh ?????o k??? c???u trong LDP, nh???ng ng?????i ???? gi??p duy tr?? quan h??? Trung-Nh???t ?????ng th???i c??ng l?? nh???ng ng?????i, gi???ng nh?? Kanemaru, ???? t???ng th??c ?????y quan h??? v???i B???c Tri???u Ti??n, ???? ???????c ch???ng l??ng b???i ?????ng X?? h???i Nh???t B???n. S??? qua ?????i c???a h???, c??ng v???i vi???c b???t giam Kanemaru v?? c??o bu???c tham nh??ng, c??ng nh?? s??? suy s???p c???a ?????ng X?? h???i, ???? khi???n cho ch??nh s??ch B???c Tri???u Ti??n r??i v??o tay m???t nh??m c??c ch??nh tr??? gia tr??? h??n v?? thi??n v??? ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c. M???t trong nh???ng ch??nh tr??? gia ???? l?? Abe Shinzo, n???i l??n v???i vai tr?? ph?? t?????ng c???a Koizumi v?? l?? ng?????i ch??? tr????ng theo ???????ng l???i c???ng r???n h??n v???i B???c Tri???u Ti??n. Quan ??i???m c???ng r???n c???a Abe nh???n ???????c s??? ???ng h??? c???a c??ng ch??ng, nh???ng ng?????i ???? ph???i ch???ng ki???n B???c Tri???u Ti??n tri???n khai 200 t??n l???a Nodong nh???m v??o Nh???t B???n, b??n methamphetamine cho tr??? em Nh???t, th??? nghi???m t??n l???a t???m xa Taepodong qua kh??ng ph???n Nh???t B???n n??m 1998, v?? sau ???? l?? th??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n v??o th??ng 10 n??m 2006. V???n ????? nh???y c???m nh???t l?? vi???c x??c nh???n h??ng ch???c ng?????i Nh???t b??? b???t c??c b???i ??i???p vi??n B???c Tri???u Ti??n v??o nh???ng n??m 1970 v?? 1980 m???c d?? ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???n ???? ph??? nh???n l?? kh??ng c?? ch???ng c??? cho ??i???u ????. Khi Th??? t?????ng Koizumi th??nh c??ng tr???ng vi???c thuy???t ph???c Tri???u Ti??n ph??ng th??ch n??m ng?????i b??? b???t c??c sau chuy???n th??m ?????y k???ch t??nh ?????n B??nh Nh?????ng v??o th??ng 9 n??m 2002, nh???ng c??u chuy???n ???????c k??? l???i b???i nh???ng ng?????i Nh???t tr??? v??? ???? khi???n ng?????i d??n Nh???t gi???n d??? h??n. Hi???n nay, 74% ng?????i Nh???t t??? th??i ????? ti??u c???c v???i B???c Tri???u Ti??n trong c??c cu???c th??m d?? d?? lu???n.18

Quan ??i???m c???a Nh???t B???n v??? B???c Tri???u Ti??n l?? m???t y???u t??? ?????nh h?????ng quan tr???ng ?????i v???i chi???n l?????c ngo???i giao c???a Nh???t B???n v??o ?????u th??? k??? 21, nh??ng nhi???u nh?? l??nh ?????o b???o th??? Nh???t B???n l???i xem m???i ??e d???a B???c Tri???u Ti??n nh?? l?? m???t c??ng c??? h???u ??ch ????? ????a ng?????i d??n Nh???t ra kh???i s??? m??n nguy???n v??? n???n h??a b??nh v?? chu???n b??? cho m???t s??? c???nh tranh d??i h???n v???i Trung Qu???c m?? kh??ng c???n ph???i c?? nh???ng l???a ch???n kh?? kh??n v??? c??c v???n ????? nh?? ph??ng v??? t??n l???a ho???c h???p t??c qu??n s??? M???-Nh???t, v???n l?? nh???ng v???n ????? d??? d???n ?????n vi???c ?????i ?????u c??ng khai v???i B???c Kinh.

M???i quan h??? Nh???t B???n v???i H??n Qu???c ???? th??ch th???c s??? t??nh to??n chi???n l?????c c???n th???n n??y. M???i quan h??? gi???a hai ?????ng minh d??n ch??? c???a M??? b???t ?????u c???i thi???n ????ng k??? sau khi Th??? t?????ng Nh???t B???n Obuchi Keizo b??y t??? s??? ??n n??n v?? xin l???i t???i T???ng th???ng H??n Qu???c Kim Dae Jung ??? Tokyo n??m 1998 v?? ??ng Kim ???? ch???p nh???n l???i xin l???i n??y (??i???u m?? Ch??? t???ch n?????c Trung Qu???c ???? kh??ng s???n s??ng th???c hi???n v??i th??ng tr?????c ???? khi???n Obuchi ch??? b??y t??? ???s??? ??n n??n???). Nh??m gi??m s??t v?? ph???i h???p ba b??n (TCOG) gi???a M???-Nh???t-H??n ???????c th??nh l???p b???i ?????c ph??i vi??n M??? v??? v???n ????? B???c Tri???u Ti??n William Perry c??ng ???? th???t ch???t m???i quan h??? Nh???t ??? H??n v??? ch??nh s??ch B???c Tri???u Ti??n v??o n??m 1999. Nh???t B???n v?? H??n Qu???c c??ng ???? c?? cu???c ????m ph??n v??? Hi???p ?????nh t??? do th????ng m???i (FTA) trong c??ng th???i k??? ????.

Trong b???i c???nh Nh???t B???n gia t??ng nh???n th???c v??? s??? c???nh tranh v???i Trung Qu???c v?? m???i ??e d???a t??? B???c Tri???u Ti??n, ng?????i ta mong ch??? Tokyo s??? ti???p t???c tranh th??? Seoul v?? duy tr?? ???nh h?????ng ??? b??n ?????o. Tuy nhi??n, m???i quan h??? Nh???t-H??n l???i b???t ng??? b??? x???u ??i v?? Nh???t B???n ???? b??? s???t gi???m ???nh h?????ng. Xu h?????ng ??i xu???ng b???t ?????u t??? th??ng 4 n??m 2004, khi Qu???n Shimane th??ng qua m???t ngh??? quy???t tuy??n b??? Takeshima (Tokdo trong ti???ng H??n) l?? l??nh th??? c???a Nh???t B???n v?? T???ng th???ng H??n Qu???c Roh Moo Hyun ph??t ?????ng m???t chi???n d???ch ch???ng Nh???t B???n, khi???n nh???ng ng?????i theo t?? t?????ng b???o th??? v???n th?????ng ???ng h??? Nh???t B???n ph???i r??i v??o th??? ch???ng ?????. Thay v?? t???p trung v??o nh???ng l???i ??ch l???n h??n ??? B??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n, B??? Ngo???i giao Nh???t B???n ti???p t???c th??c ?????y s??? c??ng nh???n c???a qu???c t??? ?????i v???i y??u s??ch c???a Nh???t B???n v??? l??nh th??? ??ang tranh ch???p ??? m???t h??nh ?????ng ch???ng kh??c n??o ????? th??m d???u v??o l???a. Chuy???n th??m c???a Th??? t?????ng Koizumi ?????n ?????n Yasukuni ???? khi???n v???n ????? tr??? n??n ph???c t???p h??n, v?? sau ???? nh???ng l???i l??? thi???u c??n nh???c c???a Th??? t?????ng Abe v??o th??ng 3/2007 bi???n minh cho s??? ?????i x??? trong th???i chi???n c???a Nh???t B???n v???i c??c n?? l??? t??nh d???c b??? c?????ng b???c hay c??n g???i l?? ???ph??? n??? gi???i khu??y??? t??? Tri???u Ti??n ???? m??? ra m???t cu???c c???nh tranh gi???a hai ch??nh ph??? ????? v???n ?????ng h??nh lang qu???c h???i M??? th??ng qua ho???c b??c b??? d??? lu???t l??n ??n Nh???t B???n. Vi???c Ch??nh ph??? T???ng th???ng Roh t??? ch???i ti???p t???c tham d??? c??c cu???c h???p c???a TCOG v??? v???n ????? B???c Tri???u Ti??n v?? nh???ng n??? l???c nh???m coi Nh???t B???n l?? m???t k??? th?? chung trong k??? ho???ch ph??ng th??? chung M???-H??n (cu???i c??ng kh??ng th??nh c??ng) ????ng l??? ra ???? gi??ng l??n h???i chu??ng c???nh b??o cho Tokyo, nh??ng thay v??o ???? ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???n l???i ch??? ?????i v?? hi v???ng r???ng c??c m???i quan h??? s??? ???????c c???i thi???n sau nhi???m k??? c???a T???ng th???ng Roh. V???i vi???c th???ng c??? c???a T???ng th???ng b???o th??? v?? th??n Nh???t h??n l?? Lee Myung Bok v??o th??ng 12/2007, m???i quan h??? ???? c?? v??? s??? ???????c c???i thi???n h??n.

S??? b???t l???c c???a Nh???t B???n trong vi???c duy tr?? m???i quan h??? t??ch c???c v???i H??n Qu???c ???????c thi???t l???p b???i ??ng Kim v?? ??ng Obuchi cho th???y r???ng h??nh vi c??n b???ng quan h??? b??n ngo??i nh???m ch???ng l???i Trung Qu???c ch??? th???c hi???n ???????c t???i nh?? v???y. Trong tr?????ng h???p m???i quan h??? v???i H??n Qu???c, ki???u ch??nh tr??? li??n quan ?????n v???n ????? b???n s???c c???a Nh???t B???n v?? s??? ?????u tranh t?? t?????ng trong n?????c ????? k???t th??c ???ch??? ????? h???u chi???n??? ???? l??m th???t b???i c??c t??nh to??n quy???n l???c theo t?? duy hi???n th???c. ??i???u n??y x???y ra b???t ch???p th???c t??? nh??n chung c??ng ch??ng Nh???t B???n ???? c?? m???t c??i nh??n t??ch c???c h??n r???t nhi???u v??? ng?????i d??n H??n Qu???c so v???i b???t k??? th???i ??i???m n??o kh??c trong l???ch s??? hai n?????c.19 Tuy nhi??n, k???t qu??? chi???n l?????c c???a vi???c Tokyo b???n t??m nhi???u h??n v??? b???n s???c d??n t???c v?? ch??nh tr??? l??nh th??? so v???i ch??nh tr??? th???c d???ng ???? khi???n v??? tr?? chi???n l?????c c???a Nh???t tr??? n??n suy y???u h??n ??? ????ng B???c ??.

Tokugawa Ieyasu ??? V??? Shogun ?????u ti??n

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Ngu???n: Historic figures, BBC (truy c???p ng??y 23/5/2015)

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Ph???m H???ng Anh                                        

L?? m???t trong nh???ng nh??n v???t n???i ti???ng trong l???ch s??? Nh???t B???n, Ieyasu l?? m???t chi???n binh, ch??nh kh??ch v?? l?? ng?????i th??nh l???p n??n ch??nh quy???n M???c ph??? Tokugawa ???????c tr??? v?? b???i c??c shogun (Chinh di ?????i t?????ng qu??n).

Tokugawa Ieyasu sinh n??m 1542, t??n g???c l?? Matsudaira Takechiyo, l?? con trai m???t l??nh ch??a c???a t???nh Mikawa. V??o th???i gian n??y, n?????c Nh???t r???i lo???n v?? n???i chi???n, v???i nh???ng m???i th?? gi???a c??c l??nh ch??a ???? t???n t???i g???n m???t th??? k???.

N??m b???n tu???i, Ieyasu b??? g???i ??i l??m con tin ?????m b???o cho li??n minh gi???a gia t???c c???a m??nh v?? gia t???c l??ng gi???ng Imagawa. ??ng ???????c nu??i d???y t???i ???? v???i n???n gi??o d???c d??nh cho t???ng l???p qu?? t???c.

N??m 1567, Ieyasu tr??? th??nh ng?????i ?????ng ?????u gia t???c Matsudaira sau c??i ch???t c???a cha v?? li??n minh v???i Oda Nobunaga, m???t ng?????i l??ng gi???ng h??ng m???nh. Ch??nh v??o th???i gian n??y ??ng ?????i h??? c???a m??nh th??nh Tokugawa ??? t??n g???i c???a v??ng ?????t qu?? h????ng c???a gia t???c m??nh v?? ?????i t??n th??nh Ieyasu. T??? ???? ??ng ???????c bi???t t???i v???i t??n g???i Tokugawa Ieyasu.

Trong kho???ng 15 n??m ti???p theo, Ieyasu ti???p t???c li??n minh v???i Nobunaga, ?????ng th???i m??? r???ng ???nh h?????ng v?? s??? gi??u c?? c???a m??nh. L??c n??y ??ng ???? ?????t ???????c danh ti???ng to l???n v??? qu??n s???.

Khi Nobunaga b??? ??m s??t n??m 1582, Ieyasu chi???m ???????c th??m nhi???u ?????t ??ai, v?? li??n k???t v???i ng?????i n???i d??i c???a Nobunaga l?? Toyotomi Hideyoshi. Hideyoshi giao Ieyasu ?????n cai tr??? v??ng l??nh th??? ph??a ????ng Nh???t B???n nh???m ki???m ch??? s??? ?????c l???p ng??y c??ng l???n c???a Ieyasu. Ieyasu ?????t ?????i b???n doanh c???a m??nh t???i th??nh Edo (hi???n nay l?? Tokyo). Ieyasu tr??? th??nh m???t trong nh???ng ng?????i ????? ?????u cho con trai c???a Hideyoshi sau khi ??ng n??y qua ?????i trong m???t chi???n d???ch ??? Tri???u Ti??n. Nh???ng l??nh ch??a qu??n s??? h??ng ?????u t???i Nh???t b???t ?????u ??m m??u ch???ng ph?? nhau v?? cu???c n???i chi???n n??? ra. M???t trong nh???ng tham m??u ???????c Hideyoshi b??? nhi???m l?? Ishisa Mitsunari, v?? ????y ch??nh l?? ng?????i ???? l???p n??n ?????i qu??n ph??a T??y (Western Army) ch???ng l???i Ieyashu.

N??m 1600, Ieyasu ????nh b???i ?????i qu??n ph??a T??y trong tr???n chi???n quy???t ?????nh Sekigahara, t??? ???? n???m quy???n th???ng tr??? Nh???t B???n. N??m 1603, Thi??n ho??ng Go-Y??zei (t???c H???u D????ng Th??nh, v???n kh??ng c?? th???c quy???n) ???? trao cho Ieyasu t?????c hi???u shogun (Chinh di ?????i t?????ng qu??n) ????? kh???ng ?????nh quy???n l???c v?????t tr???i c???a ??ng. Nh???t B???n ???????c th???ng nh???t d?????i s??? cai tr??? c???a Ieyasu. ??ng c??? g???ng thi???t l???p l???i ???n ?????nh trong n?????c v?? khuy???n kh??ch ngo???i th????ng, bao g???m c??? vi???c trao ?????i t???ng ph???m v???i vua James I c???a Anh v?? c??c ho??ng ????? Ch??u ??u kh??c. Ch??? t???i th???i nh???ng ng?????i k??? v??? Ieyasu, Nh???t B???n m???i ho??n to??n t??? c?? l???p, t??ch bi???t kh???i c??c ti???p x??c v???i b??n ngo??i.

Ieyasu qua ?????i v??o ng??y 17 th??ng 4 n??m 1616. ??ng ???????c phong th??nh v?? l??ng th??? ??ng ??? Nikko tr??? th??nh m???t trong nh???ng ?????n th??? quan tr???ng nh???t ??? Nh???t B???n.

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