Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 23/08/2019

Thứ sáu - 23/08/2019 03:08
T???ng th???ng Ph??p Emmanuel Macron n??i v???i Th??? t?????ng Anh Boris Johnson r???ng kh??ng c?? ????? th???i gian ch??? trong v??ng 1 th??ng t???i ????? ????m ph??n m???t th???a thu???n Brexit ho??n to??n m???i v???i Li??n minh ch??u ??u. ??ng Johnson mu???n ??i???u kho???n v??? bi??n gi???i c???ng v???i B???c Ireland ???????c b??i b??? ho??n to??n; ??ng Macron g???i ???? l?? ??i???u ki???n kh??ng th??? thi???u n???u EU mu???n duy tr?? t??nh to??n v???n c???a th??? tr?????ng chung.
Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 23/08/2019

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 23/08/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

TIN V???N

T???ng th???ng Ph??p Emmanuel Macron n??i v???i Th??? t?????ng Anh Boris Johnson r???ng kh??ng c?? ????? th???i gian ch??? trong v??ng 1 th??ng t???i ????? ????m ph??n m???t th???a thu???n Brexit ho??n to??n m???i v???i Li??n minh ch??u ??u. ??ng Johnson mu???n ??i???u kho???n v??? bi??n gi???i c???ng v???i B???c Ireland ???????c b??i b??? ho??n to??n; ??ng Macron g???i ???? l?? ??i???u ki???n kh??ng th??? thi???u n???u EU mu???n duy tr?? t??nh to??n v???n c???a th??? tr?????ng chung.

S??ch tr???ng qu???c ph??ng s???p c??ng b??? c???a ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???ns??? cho bi???t r???ng Tri???u Ti??n ??ang ch??? t???o ?????u ?????n h???t nh??n ????? nh??? ????? l???p v??o t??n l???a ?????n ?????o, theo t??? Yomiuri Shimbun. C??c c?? quan t??nh b??o M??? v?? H??n Qu???c ???? nghi ng??? Tri???u Ti??n ??ang ph??t tri???n n??ng l???c n??y; vi???c Nh???t c??ng b??? c??ng khai nh?? v???y c?? th??? l?? m???t bi???n ph??p nh???m th??? hi???n s??? gi???n d??? c???a h??? ?????i v???i vi???c c??c cu???c ????m ph??n phi h???t nh??n h??a r??i v??o b??? t???c.

T???ng th???ng d??n t??y c???a Brazil, ??ng Jair Bolsonaro, tuy??n b??? r???ng ch??nh ph??? c???a ??ng thi???u c??c ngu???n l???c ????? d???p c??c v??? ch??y r???ng nhi???t ?????i Amazon. Nh???ng ng?????i ph???n ?????i cho r???ng ??ng Bolsonaro, ng?????i coi b???o v??? m??i tr?????ng l?? m???i ??e d???a ?????i v???i ph??t tri???n kinh t???, ???? ng???m ???ng h??? n??ng d??n g??y n??n nh???ng v??? ch??y b???t h???p ph??p b???ng c??ch l??m suy y???u c??c c?? quan b???o v??? r???ng. S??? v??? ch??y ???????c ph??t hi???n t??? ?????u n??m ?????n nay ???? t??ng 84%.

C???nh s??t New Delhi ???? b???t gi??? P. Chidambaram, c???u B??? tr?????ng T??i ch??nh v?? Nh?? ??? trong c??c ch??nh ph??? do ?????ng Qu???c ?????i l??nh ?????o th???i ??i???m tr?????c khi ??ng Narenda Modi l??n n???m quy???n. ??ng b??? b??? t?? v?? nghi ng??? ???? nh???n h???i l??? ????? ph?? duy???t c??c kho???n ?????u t?? c???a n?????c ngo??i. ??ng Chidambaram l?? ng?????i c?? v??? th??? cao nh???t trong nh??m c??c ?????i th??? ch??nh tr??? ng??y c??ng ????ng ?????o c???a ??ng Modi ?????t nhi??n b??? truy t??? v?? c??c t???i danh tham nh??ng.

Y??u c???u tr??? c???p th???t nghi???p m???i ??? M??? ???? gi???m so v???i d??? ki???n v??o tu???n tr?????c. Trong khi ????, IHS Markit, m???t h??ng nghi??n c???u d??? li???u, ???? c??ng b??? ???Ch??? s??? Nh?? qu???n l?? mua h??ng s???n su???t??? c???a h??? ?????i v???i M???, gi???m xu???ng d?????i m???c 50 ??i???m trong th??ng 8 ??? m???t m???c cho th???y s???n l?????ng ??i ngang ??? l???n ?????u ti??n k??? t??? n??m 2009. ??i???u ???? khi???n cho th??? tr?????ng lo l???ng. ???????ng cong l???i su???t tr??i phi???u M??? l???i ?????o ng?????c m???t l???n n???a ??? m???t d???u hi???u khi???n c??c nh?? ?????u t?? lo ng???i r???ng n?????c M??? ??ang ?????ng tr?????c suy tho??i.

H???i ?????ng qu???n tr??? Qu??? Ti???n t??? Qu???c t??? ???? ?????ng ?? lo???i b??? gi???i h???n ????? tu???i cho Gi??m ?????c ??i???u h??nh c???a h???, d???n ???????ng cho b?? Kristalina Georgieva c???a Bulgaria ?????m nhi???m v??? tr?? n??y. Hi???n t???i c??c ???ng c??? vi??n ph???i t??? 65 tu???i tr??? xu???ng; trong khi b?? Georgieva ???? b?????c sang tu???i 66 v??o ng??y 13 th??ng 8. N???u ???????c b??? nhi???m, b?? s??? l?? n??? Gi??m ?????c ??i???u h??nh th??? hai c???a IMF v?? l?? ng?????i ?????u ti??n ?????n t??? ????ng ??u.

N??? l???c c???a m???t s??? qu???c gia ch??u Phi nh???m m??? l???i m???t ph???n vi???c bu??n b??n c??c b??? ph???n c???a voi ???? b??? b??c b??? b???i C??ng ?????c v??? Bu??n b??n qu???c t??? c??c lo??i ?????ng, Th???c v???t hoang d?? nguy c???p (CITES). CITES c??ng l???n ?????u ti??n ????? xu???t si???t ch???t vi???c bu??n b??n h????u cao c??? v?? c??c b??? ph???n c?? th??? c???a ch??ng. M???t s??? lo??i h????u cao c??? hi???n c?? s??? l?????ng ??t h??n 10.000.

TI??U ??I???M

Th??ch th???c ??? H???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh G7

N??m ngo??i, H???i ngh??? Th?????ng ?????nh c???a nh??m b???y n???n kinh t??? ti??n ti???n h??ng ?????u ???? k???t th??c trong l???n x???n, v???i vi???c T???ng th???ng Donald Trump ????ng tweet n??i x???u ch??? nh?? Canada l?? ???r???t kh??ng trung th???c v?? y???u ??u???i???, ?????ng th???i t??? ch???i t??n th??nh th??ng c??o chung cu???i c??ng. H???i ngh??? ???y tr??ng gi???ng nh?? G6 + 1 h??n l?? G7. T???ng th???ng Emmanuel Macron, ch??? nh?? c???a h???i ngh??? d??? ki???n s??? b???t ?????u v??o th??? b???y t???i t???i th??nh ph??? Biarritz ??? t??y nam n?????c Ph??p, ???? lo???i b??? ph???n th??ng c??o chung nh???m tr??nh b???t k??? v??? ???ph?? s???n??? n??o. ??ng mu???n t???p trung v??o vi???c l??m cho ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n c??ng b???ng h??n (m???t s??? nh?? l??nh ?????o ch??u Phi ???????c m???i ?????n d???) v?? xanh h??n (t???p trung v??o v???n ????? t??i ch??nh cho ch???ng bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u).

Nh?? th?????ng l???, c??c s??? ki???n b???t ng??? c?? th??? l??m ?????o l???n c??c k??? ho???ch t??? m??? nh???t. ??ng Trump ???? ??e d???a s??? tr??? ????a s???c thu??? m???i c???a Ph??p nh???m v??o c??c ?????i gia c??ng ngh??? b???ng vi???c ??p thu??? ?????i v???i r?????u vang Ph??p. Tranh lu???n c?? th??? b??ng l??n v??? b???t c??? th??? g?? t??? ti???n t??? cho ?????n Iran v?? Brexit. Song c?? m???t ??i???u s??? ??o??n k???t c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? Biarritz: n???i s??? h??i v??? m???t n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i ??ang chao ?????o. ??i???u ???? s??? khuy???n kh??ch h??? tr???n an th??? tr?????ng, ch??? kh??ng ph???i tranh c??i th??m v???i nhau.

C??c nh?? kinh t??? v?? l??nh ?????o ng??n h??ng nh??m h???p ??? Jackson Hole

C??c nh?? ?????u t?? s??? h?????ng v??? Wyoming v??o h??m nay, n??i Jerome Powell, ch??? t???ch c???a C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang M??? (Fed), s??? ph??t bi???u tr?????c c??c nh?? kinh t??? v?? c??c nh?? qu???n l?? ng??n h??ng trung ????ng. C??c t??n tu???i l???n v??? ch??nh s??ch ti???n t??? nh??m h???p th??ng 8 h??ng n??m t???i Jackson Hole (Wyoming) ????? c??ng th???o lu???n v?? nghe c??c b??o c??o nghi??n c???u m???i. Ch??? ????? c???a n??m nay l?? ???Th??ch th???c ?????i v???i ch??nh s??ch ti???n t??????, v?? ??ng Powell ph???i ?????i m???t v???i r???t nhi???u v???n ?????. H???i th??ng 7, do lo ng???i t??c ?????ng ?????i v???i n???n kinh t??? M??? t???o ra b???i t??ng tr?????ng to??n c???u y???u v?? cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i c???a T???ng th???ng Donald Trump, Fed ???? gi???m l??i su???t c?? b???n l???n ?????u ti??n k??? t??? n??m 2008.

C??ng th???ng th????ng m???i k??? t??? ???? v???n leo thang v?? c??c th??? tr?????ng b???t ???n; m???t s??? ch??? d???u cho th???y c?? th??? x???y ra suy tho??i. Trong khi ????, nh???ng l???i ph??n n??n c??ng khai c???a ??ng Trump v??? vi???c Fed t??? ch???i gi???m l??i su???t nhanh h??n v???n ti???p t???c. G???n ????y, ??ng tweet: ??????C???C D??? TR??? LI??N BANG ????U R???I????. Trong b??i ph??t bi???u c???a m??nh, ??ng Powell s??? c??? g???ng tr???n an c??c th??? tr?????ng r???ng Fed s???n s??ng gi???m l??i su???t nhi???u h??n n???a n???u n???n kinh t??? ????i h???i  ??? song Fed kh??ng mu???n g??y ???n t?????ng r???ng h??? c???t gi???m l??i su???t v?? bi quan hay ph???i ???nghe l???i??? Trump ??? m???t nhi???m v??? g???n nh?? b???t kh??? thi.

L??i su???t li??n bang v?? l???i t???c tr??i phi???u ch??nh ph??? k??? h???n 10 n??m c???a M???.

Quan h??? Nh???t-H??n b??? t???c

Nh???ng ng?????i h??ng x??m th?? h???n d?????ng nh?? kh??ng h??? nh?????ng b??? nhau. H??m nay, H??n Qu???c ???? x??a b??? m???t hi???p ?????c chia s??? th??ng tin t??nh b??o nh???m tr??? ????a c??c quy ?????nh th???t ch???t xu???t kh???u c???a Nh???t nh???m v??o c??c ng??nh c??ng nghi???p c??ng ngh??? cao c???a H??n Qu???c. Hi???p ?????c ba b??n v???i M??? ???? ???????c k?? k???t v??o n??m 2016 ????? gi??p ?????i ph?? v???i c??c m???i ??e d???a t??n l???a t??? Tri???u Ti??n. M???i quan h??? b???t ?????u tr??? n??n gay g???t v??o m??a thu n??m ngo??i khi T??a ??n t???i cao H??n Qu???c y??u c???u c??c c??ng ty Nh???t ph???i b???i th?????ng cho nh???ng ng?????i lao ?????ng H??n Qu???c b??? bu???c l??m vi???c trong th???i gian Nh???t B???n chi???m ????ng B??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n.

Nh???t kh???ng ?????nh t???t c??? c??c y??u c???u b???i th?????ng ???? ???????c gi???i quy???t trong hi???p ?????c thi???t l???p quan h??? ngo???i giao h???i n??m 1965. Tuy nhi??n, nhi???u ng?????i H??n Qu???c tin r???ng ng?????i Nh???t ch??a ????? h???i l???i cho c??c h??nh ?????ng sai trai c???a h??? th???i chi???n. M???t cu???c t???y chay Nh???t B???n ng??y c??ng gia t??ng ???? g??y thi???t h???i cho th????ng m???i v?? du l???ch. N??? l???c trong tu???n n??y c???a Trung Qu???c nh???m l??m ng?????i h??a gi???i cho cu???c tranh ch???p ???? khi???n M??? lo ng???i r???ng Trung Qu???c ??ang c??? g???ng chia r??? m???t li??n minh ch??u ?? quan tr???ng. Song ??ng Moon Jae-in, t???ng th???ng H??n Qu???c, ???? t??? ch???i l???i k??u g???i gi???m b???t ?????ng c???a ??ng Donald Trump.

B???u Tr?????ng ?????c khu Macau

V??o Ch??? nh???t t???i, m???t h???i ?????ng g???m 400 ?????i c??? tri s??? l???a ch???n Tr?????ng ?????c khu m???i c???a Macau. ?????ng n??n tr??ng ?????i v??o b???t ng??? n??o: Ho Iat Seng, m???t doanh nh??n 62 tu???i ???????c ch??nh quy???n trung ????ng Trung Qu???c ???ng h???, l?? ???ng c??? vi??n duy nh???t. Tr??n l?? thuy???t, thu???c ?????a c?? c???a B??? ????o Nha ???????c ph??p t??? ??i???u h??nh c??ng vi???c c???a m??nh k??? t??? khi ???????c tr??? l???i cho Trung Qu???c v??o n??m 1999. Song, trong th???c t???, h??? b??? ki???m so??t ch???t ch???, v???i vi???c c??c cu???c b???u c??? tr???c ti???p ch??? b???u ra ch??a t???i m???t n???a s??? gh??? trong c?? quan l???p ph??p.

G???n ????y, ch??nh quy???n lo l???ng r???ng t??nh c???m ch???ng ch??nh ph??? c?? th??? lan truy???n t??? H???ng K??ng g???n ????. C???nh s??t ???? c???m m???t cu???c bi???u t??nh nh??? v???n ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch nh???m th??? hi???n ??o??n k???t v???i ng?????i bi???u t??nh H???ng K??ng v??o ng??y 19 th??ng 8. Nh??ng r???t ??t trong s??? 600.000 c?? d??n Macau coi c???i c??ch ch??nh tr??? l?? ??u ti??n h??ng ?????u. H??? ???????c h?????ng thu nh???p cao h??n nhi???u so v???i ng?????i H???ng K??ng v?? ph??c l???i c??ng h??o ph??ng h??n. H??? nh???n ???????c m???t ph???n l???i nhu???n h??ng n??m t??? c??c s??ng b???c kh???ng l??? c???a th??nh ph???. S??? ti???n ???? tr??? gi?? kho???ng 1.250 ???? la m???i ng?????i trong n??m nay.

Google ?????i m???t ???c??ng ??o??n??? c???a c??c Youtuber

Google ???? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i s??? b???t m??n t??? c??c nh??n vi??n c???a h???. Th??ng 11 n??m ngo??i, 20.000 ???Googler??? ??? c??ch m?? Google g???i nh??n vi??n c???a m??nh ??? ???? bi???u t??nh nh???m ph???n ?????i c??ch c??ng ty x??? l?? n???n qu???y r???i t??nh d???c. Th??ch th???c m???i nh???t v??? lao ?????ng c???a Google ?????n t??? c??c YouTuber, nh???ng ng?????i s??ng t???o n???i dung cho c??ng ty con v??? l??u tr??? video kh???ng l??? c???a Google.

M???c d?? c??c YouTuber kh??ng ph???i l?? nh??n vi??n, h??ng ng??n ng?????i trong s??? n??y ki???m s???ng t??? doanh thu qu???ng c??o m?? video c???a h??? t???o ra. Tuy nhi??n, nhi???u ng?????i cho r???ng t??? n??m 2017, YouTube ???? b???t ?????u h???n ch??? nh???ng video c?? th??? ???????c h??? tr??? b???i qu???ng c??o, khi???n thu nh???p c???a c??c YouTuber gi???m xu???ng. ????p l???i, 23.000 ng?????i ???? tham gia FairTube, m???t t??? ch???c mong mu???n h???p th??nh phong tr??o c??ng ??o??n v?? bu???c Google cho ?????n h??m nay ph???i ng???i v??o b??n th????ng l?????ng. Phong tr??o n??y m???nh nh???t ??? ch??u ??u, n??i h??? ???????c h??? tr??? b???i IG Metall, c??ng ??o??n th????ng m???i l???n nh???t ch??u l???c. M???t v???n ????? ??au ?????u kh??c c???a Google ??? ch??u ??u l?? ??n ph???t cho h??nh vi ch???ng c???nh tranh t??? n??m 2017 v???i s??? ti???n ph???t h??n 9 t??? ????-la.
Ba n???i s??? c???a Trung Qu???c: T???i sao Trung Qu???c kh??ng mu???n ?????ng ?????u?
T??c gi???: Kai He | Bi??n d???ch: Ph???m Trang Nhung
Ng?????i ta d??? ??o??n r???ng Trung Qu???c s??? tr??? th??nh n???n kinh t??? s??? 1 th??? gi???i v??o cu???i n??m nay, v?????t qua c??? M???. Tuy nhi??n, Trung Qu???c c?? v??? lo s??? ??i???u n??y v?? ba l?? do. N???i s??? th??? nh???t l?? t??nh tr???ng th???i ph???ng s???c m???nh c???a Trung Qu???c khi s??? d???ng s??? li???u GDP. ????y kh??ng ph???i l???n ?????u ti??n th??? gi???i ph??ng ?????i s???c m???nh c???a Trung Qu???c th??ng qua GDP c???a n?????c n??y. V??o n??m 2010, GDP c???a Trung Qu???c ???? v?????t qua Nh???t B???n, tr??? th??nh n???n kinh t??? l???n th??? hai th??? gi???i ch??? sau M???. L???n n??y s??? li???u c???a Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i s??? khi???n Trung Qu???c tr??? th??nh n???n kinh t??? s??? 1 th??? gi???i v?? c??ng s???m.
Tuy nhi??n, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c hi???u r???ng d?? GDP c???a h??? hay GDP t??nh theo s???c mua t????ng ??????ng c?? l???n ?????n ????u, th?? 1,3 t??? ng?????i Trung Qu???c ??? con s??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i ??? s??? pha lo??ng s???c m???nh th???c c???a n?????c n??y. V?? d???, theo Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i , v??o n??m 2012, GDP b??nh qu??n ?????u ng?????i c???a Trung Qu???c ?????ng th??? 91, th???m ch?? c??n x???p sau Iraq, n?????c v???n c??n nhi???u kh?? kh??n do cu???c chi???n ch???ng kh???ng b??? c???a M???. GDP b??nh qu??n ?????u ng?????i theo s???c mua t????ng ??????ng n??ng Trung Qu???c l??n v??? tr?? s??? 89, nh??ng v???n c??n ?????ng sau C???ng h??a Dominica.
Hai n???i s??? kh??c c???a Trung Qu???c
H??n th??? n???a, ng??n s??ch qu??n s??? c???a Trung Qu???c v???n ch??a b???ng n???i m???t ph???n ba c???a M??? m???c d?? Trung Qu???c ???? c??? g???ng duy tr?? m???c t??ng tr?????ng 2 con s??? ?????i v???i chi ti??u qu??n s??? trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y. V??? m???t quy???n l???c m???m, hay ???nh h?????ng li??n quan ?????n c??c l?? t?????ng v?? quy chu???n c???a n?????c n??y tr??n th??? gi???i ??? th?? s???c m???nh c???a Trung Qu???c v???n ch???ng ????ng k??? so v???i M???. Trong cu???n s??ch m???i c???a m??nh, China Goes Global: The Partial Power, David Shambaugh, m???t h???c gi??? h??ng ?????u v??? Trung Qu???c, ???? kh???o c???u m???t c??ch c?? h??? th???ng ???nh h?????ng tr??n nhi???u m???t c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i ch??nh tr??? th??? gi???i hi???n nay. ??ng ??i ?????n k???t lu???n r???ng Trung Qu???c v???n ch??a th???c s??? l?? c?????ng qu???c to??n c???u, m?? ch??? l?? c?????ng qu???c m???t ph???n. V?? c?? l??? s??? ti???p t???c nh?? v???y trong t????ng lai g???n
N???i s??? th??? hai l?? nh???ng h??? l???y ch??nh s??ch ?????ng sau ???o t?????ng ???Trung Qu???c l?? s??? 1???. M???i ng?????i ?????u bi???t r???ng ??i li???n v???i v??? th??? c?????ng qu???c l?? tr??ch nhi???m l???n. L??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c lo ng???i r???ng Trung Qu???c s??? r??i v??o m???t ???c??i b???y lu???n ??i???u??? m?? th??? gi???i, ?????c bi???t l?? M??? t???o ra. V??o n??m 2005, Robert Zoellick, khi ???? l?? Th??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao M???, d??? ??o??n r???ng Trung Qu???c c?? th??? ????ng vai tr?? c???a m???t ???th??nh vi??n c?? tr??ch nhi???m??? trong vi???c ?????nh h??nh ti???n tr??nh qu???c t???. Trong m???t l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c, d??? ??o??n c???a Zoellick l?? m???t ???c??i b???y lu???n ??i???u???, nh???m m???c ????ch b???c ??p v?? ki???m ch??? h??nh vi ?????i ngo???i c???a Trung Qu???c.
Trong t??m l?? h???c ch??nh tr???, chi???n l?????c n??y ???????c g???i l?? ????????i vai??? (altercasting ??? m???t c??ch thuy???t ph???c ng?????i kh??c th??ng qua vi???c g??n cho h??? m???t vai tr?? x?? h???i nh???t ?????nh ????? h?????ng h??? h??nh ?????ng trong khu??n kh??? vai tr?? ???? ??? ND), th?????ng ???????c c??c th??nh vi??n c?? s??? d???ng ????? x?? h???i h??a (socialize ??? t???c h??a nh???p th??ng qua giao thi???p ??? NH??) m???t th??nh vi??n m???i  v??o x?? h???i. Trong tr?????ng h???p Trung Qu???c v?? M???, M??? ???? ??p ?????t vai tr?? ???th??nh vi??n c?? tr??ch nhi???m??? cho Trung Qu???c v???i k?? v???ng v?? l???i nh???c nh??? t????ng ???ng l?? Trung Qu???c s??? h??nh x??? nh?? v???y. N???u Trung Qu???c kh??ng th??? th???c hi???n ???????c vai tr?? mong ?????i, th?? Trung Qu???c s??? b??? ch??? tr??ch n???ng n???, tr??? th??nh ???ng?????i x???u??? trong m???t c??c qu???c gia kh??c
Ch??ng ta c?? th??? th???y nhi???u v?? d??? t??? v???n ????? bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u, lu???t l??? t??i ch??nh, ????m ph??n th????ng m???i c??ng nh?? ???ngo???i giao c???ng r???n??? c???a Trung Qu???c trong khu v???c. R?? r??ng l?? l???n n??y th?? c??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c ???? nh???n th???c ???????c vi???c h??? ??ang r??i v??o m???t c??i ???b???y lu???n ??i???u??? kh??c v???i vai tr?? n???n kinh t??? s??? 1 th??? gi???i, nh?? l?? ng?????i ta n??i ???m???i l???n v???p ng?? l?? m???t l???n b???t d???i???.
Gi???c m?? Trung Hoa, ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c v?? tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng
N???i s??? cu???i c??ng (nh??ng c??ng kh??ng k??m ph???n quan tr???ng) l?? ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c ??ang ng??y c??ng l??n cao, c?? li??n h??? v???i v??? tr?? s??? 1 th??? gi???i v??? kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c. C??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c ch???ng h??? ng???n ng???i khi ?????t m???c ti??u chi???n l?????c l?? tr??? th??nh m???t ???c?????ng qu???c???, c??i ???????c g???i l?? ???cu???c t??i sinh v?? ?????i c???a d??n t???c Trung Hoa??? trong ???Gi???c m?? Trung Hoa??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh. Ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c, hay v???n ???????c g???i l?? ???ch??? ngh??a y??u n?????c??? ??? Trung Qu???c, ???? tr??? th??nh m???t c??ng c??? ch??nh tr??? ????? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c thu h??t s??? ???ng h??? c???a c??? n?????c cho ch??nh quy???n.
Tuy nhi??n, ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c l?? m???t con dao hai l?????i ??? b???t k?? qu???c gia n??o. N???u ???????c ki???m so??t t???t, ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c c?? th??? s??? c?? ??ch v???i ?????ng trong khi ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c qu?? kh??ch c?? th??? l?? nh??t dao ????m sau l??ng ?????ng. V?? d???, trong xung ?????t tr??n bi???n hi???n t???i gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? Vi???t Nam c??ng nh?? gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? Philippines ??? Bi???n ????ng, c?? d??n m???ng Trung Qu???c ???? c??ng khai nghi v???n ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c v??? s??? y???u k??m c???a h??? trong vi???c b???o v??? l???i ??ch qu???c gia ??? Bi???n ????ng.
Kh??ng kh?? ????? t?????ng t?????ng r???ng n???u Trung Qu???c tung h??? v??? th??? m???i l?? n???n kinh t??? s??? 1 th??? gi???i, th?? s??? c?? c??ng nhi???u y??u c???u v?? ??p l???c ?????i v???i ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c. Ngo???i giao nh??n nh?????ng r?? r??ng kh??ng t????ng x???ng v???i gi???c m?? ???n?????c gi??u d??n m???nh??? trong t??m l?? c???a c??ng ch??ng Trung Qu???c. Do ????, ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? n??i r?? r???ng n?????c n??y kh??ng ho??n to??n ?????ng ?? v???i ph????ng th???c c???a Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i v?? ???kh??ng ?????ng ?? c??ng khai k???t qu??? c???a Trung Qu???c???.
B???i v?? Trung Qu???c t??? ch???i v??? tr?? n???n kinh t??? s??? 1 th??? gi???i, nhi???u ng?????i coi ????y l?? d???u hi???u cho vi???c Trung Qu???c thu h???p nh???ng ngh??a v??? m?? h??? c?? tr??ch nhi???m. V?? d???, Trung Qu???c v???n kh??ng kh??ng cho r???ng h??? l?? n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n khi ????m ph??n v??? vi???c gi???m kh?? th???i g??y hi??u ???ng nh?? k??nh. ????ng l?? n???u t??nh ?????n d??n s??? kh???ng l???, Trung Qu???c ??ang v?? s??? l?? m???t n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n trong th???i gian d??i. Tuy nhi??n, v???i t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? hi???n nay, s???m mu???n g?? Trung Qu???c c??ng s??? v?????t qua M??? tr??? th??nh n???n kinh t??? l???n nh???t.
B??i h???c v??? l??nh ?????o v?? COC
M???c d?? b??y gi??? v???n c??n qu?? s???m ????? ngh?? v??? vi???c l??nh ?????o th??? gi???i nh?? th??? n??o, ???? ?????n l??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c h???c xem l??nh ?????o ngh??a l?? g?? v?? bao g???m nh???ng g??. ?????u ti??n, qu???c gia l??nh ?????o th??? gi???i ph???i gi??? y??n ???n nh?? m??nh. X??t ?????n d??n s??? kh???ng l??? c???a Trung Qu???c, chu c???p ????? cho ng?????i d??n v?? duy tr?? x?? h???i ???n ?????nh c?? l??? l?? ????ng g??p l???n nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c cho th??? gi???i.
Th??? hai, m???t qu???c gia l??nh ?????o th??? gi???i ph???i duy tr?? h??a b??nh v???i c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng th??ng qua lu???t l??? v?? quy chu???n. V??? m???t l???ch s???, r?? r??ng l?? ch???ng c?? s??? qu???n l?? b???ng quy???n l???c n??o c?? th??? k??o d??i. Do v???y, m???t qu???c gia l??nh ?????o th???c th??? c???n ph???i bi???t l??m sao ?????t ra c??c lu???t l??? v?? quy chu???n trong x?? h???i qu???c t???. Tuy nhi??n, ????? khuy???n kh??ch c??c n?????c kh??c ??i theo, qu???c gia l??nh ?????o c??ng ph???i l?? t???m g????ng trong vi???c th???c thi c??c lu???t l??? v?? quy chu???n m??nh ?????t ra. K?? B??? Quy t???c ???ng x??? (COC) ??? Bi???n ????ng c?? l??? l?? b?????c ?????u ti???n ????? Trung Qu???c ?????t ra c??c lu???t l??? nh???m gi???m xung ?????t ??? Bi???n ????ng.
Th??ch th???c th???c s??? ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c l?? l??m sao ????? gi???i quy???t nh???ng xung ?????t n??y. Trung Qu???c s??? ch???ng th??? tr??? th??nh nh?? l??nh ?????o th???c th??? n???u n?????c n??y ti???p t???c tranh c??i v??? c??c ?????o ???? v?? ?????o nh??? ??? Bi???n ????ng.
Cu???i c??ng, Trung Qu???c c???n v?????t qua ba n???i s??? n??u tr??n. M???t Trung Qu???c t??? tin, t??ch c???c v?? khi??m t???n s??? ???????c c??ng ?????ng qu???c t??? ch??o ????n, d?? c?? l?? s??? 1 hay kh??ng.
Kai He l?? Ph?? Gi??o s?? ng??nh Khoa h???c Ch??nh tr??? ??? ?????i h???c bang Utah v?? nghi??n c???u vi??n kh??ch m???i c???a Ch????ng tr??nh Trung Qu???c ??? Tr?????ng Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? Rajaratnam, ?????i h???c C??ng ngh??? Nanyang.
Ngu???n: RSIS Commentaries
 

22/10/1962: JFK th??ng b??o phong t???a Cuba

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Ngu???n: JFK announces a blockade of CubaHistory.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1962, T???ng th???ng John F. Kennedy (JFK) tuy??n b??? tr?????c ng?????i M??? r???ng ??ng ???? ra l???nh phong t???a Cuba nh???m ph???n ???ng l???i vi???c ph??t hi???n ra t??n l???a c???a Li??n X?? ??ang ???????c l???p ?????t tr??n ?????o. Trong b??i ph??t bi???u tr??n truy???n h??nh, ??ng l??n ??n nh?? l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? Nikita Khrushchev v?? ???m??u ????? ??m mu???i, li???u l??nh v?? ??e d???a khi??u kh??ch ?????i v???i h??a b??nh th??? gi???i,??? ?????ng th???i c???nh b??o r???ng M??? s???n s??ng tr??? ????a n???u t??n l???a ???????c ph??ng ??i.

B???n ng??y tr?????c ????, Kennedy ???? ???????c xem h??nh ???nh Li??n X?? ??ang l???p ?????t 40 t??n l???a ?????n ?????o t???i Cuba ??? v???i kho???ng c??ch r???t g???n so v???i M???. Trong c??c cu???c h???p b?? m???t, Kennedy v?? c??c c??? v???n th??n c???n nh???t c???a ??ng ?????ng ?? r???ng T???ng th???ng c?? ba l???a ch???n: (1) th????ng l?????ng v???i Li??n X?? ????? di d???i c??c t??n l???a; (2) n??m bom c??c ?????a ??i???m ch???a t??n l???a ??? Cuba; ho???c (3) ti???n h??nh phong t???a h???i qu??n h??n ?????o. Kennedy ???? ch???n c??ch phong t???a Cuba, v?? quy???t ?????nh r???ng s??? ch??? n??m bom c??c ?????a ??i???m ch???a t??n l???a n???u th???c s??? c???n thi???t.

Cu???c phong t???a b???t ?????u v??o ng??y 21/10. Sang ng??y h??m sau, Kennedy ???? c?? m???t b??i ph??t bi???u c??ng khai ????? th??ng b??o cho ng?????i d??n M??? v??? t??nh h??nh. Trong b??i ph??t bi???u c???a m??nh, ??ng c???nh b??o nh???ng ng?????i d??n M??? ??ang lo s??? r???ng c??c t??n l???a ??? Cuba c?? kh??? n??ng t???n c??ng Washington, D.C. hay b???t c??? n??i n??o ??? v??ng ????ng nam c???a n?????c n??y, K??nh ????o Panama, Th??nh ph??? Mexico ho???c ???xa h??n v??? ph??a b???c nh?? V???nh Hudson, Canada, v?? ph??a Nam nh?? Lima, Peru.??? D?????ng nh?? m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u qu??n s??? ???? s???p x???y ra khi Kennedy n??i v???i ng?????i d??n r???ng ??ng ???? ra l???nh s?? t??n c??n c??? qu??n s??? c???a M??? t???i v???nh Guantanamo, Cuba v?? ????a c??c ????n v??? qu??n ?????i v??o t??nh tr???ng s???n s??ng. ??ng tuy??n b??? m???t c??ch d??ng c???m r???ng, ???con ???????ng m?? ch??ng ta s??? kh??ng bao gi??? ch???n l?? con ???????ng ?????u h??ng hay khu???t ph???c.???

Khrushchev ph???n ???ng b???ng c??ch g???i th??m nhi???u t??u kh??c ??? nhi???u t??u trong s??? ???? c?? kh??? n??ng ch??? thi???t b??? qu??n s??? ??? sang Cuba v?? b???ng c??ch cho ph??p ho???t ?????ng x??y d???ng t???i ?????a ??i???m ?????t t??n l???a ???????c ti???p t???c. Trong s??u ng??y ti???p theo, cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??n l???a Cuba, nh?? t??n ch??ng ta g???i ng??y nay, ???? ????a th??? gi???i ?????n b??? v???c chi???n tranh h???t nh??n to??n c???u trong khi hai nh?? l??nh ?????o tham gia v??o c??c cu???c ????m ph??n c??ng th???ng qua ??i???n t??n v?? th?? t???.

May m???n thay v??o ng??y 28/10, Kennedy v?? Khrushchev ???? ?????t ???????c m???t th???a thu???n v?? ng?????i d??n ??? c??? hai ph??a c???a cu???c xung ?????t ???? ???????c th??? ph??o du?? v????n co??n th???n tr???ng. C??c ?????a ??i???m l???p ?????t t??n l???a ??? Cuba ???? ???????c th??o d???, v?? ?????i l???i, Kennedy ???? ?????ng ?? r??t t??n l???a c???a M??? ra kh???i Th??? Nh?? K???.

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