T???i sao l?? c??? c?? c???a H?? Lan l?? bi???u t?????ng ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c?

Thứ hai - 19/08/2019 00:40
Sau nhi???u tu???n b???o l???c, c??c cu???c tu???n h??nh ???ng h??? d??n ch??? m???i nh???t ??? H???ng K??ng d?????ng nh?? ???? di???n ra m???t c??ch h??a b??nh. H??ng tr??m ng??n ng?????i ???? t???p trung t???i C??ng vi??n Victoria sau khi b??? c???nh s??t t??? ch???i cho ph??p di???u h??nh qua trung t??m th??nh ph???. Cu???i tu???n tr?????c, ng?????i bi???u t??nh ???? chi???m s??n bay th??nh ph???. Lu???n ??i???u t??? ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? n??n c???ng r???n h??n.
T???i sao l?? c??? c?? c???a H?? Lan l?? bi???u t?????ng ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c?

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 19/08/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

TIN V???N H??M QUA

Sau nhi???u tu???n b???o l???c, c??c cu???c tu???n h??nh ???ng h??? d??n ch??? m???i nh???t ??? H???ng K??ng d?????ng nh?? ???? di???n ra m???t c??ch h??a b??nh. H??ng tr??m ng??n ng?????i ???? t???p trung t???i C??ng vi??n Victoria sau khi b??? c???nh s??t t??? ch???i cho ph??p di???u h??nh qua trung t??m th??nh ph???. Cu???i tu???n tr?????c, ng?????i bi???u t??nh ???? chi???m s??n bay th??nh ph???. Lu???n ??i???u t??? ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? n??n c???ng r???n h??n.

C??c t??i li???u ch??nh ph??? b??? r?? r??? v??? t??c ?????ng ti???m t??ng c???a Brexit kh??ng c?? th???a thu???n cho th???y ng?????i Anh c?? th??? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i t??nh tr???ng thi???u l????ng th???c, nhi??n li???u v?? thu???c men, c??ng nh?? t??nh tr???ng ch???m tr??? nghi??m tr???ng t???i c??c c???ng bi???n. Th??? t?????ng Boris Johnson n??i r???ng Anh kh??ng c?? g?? ph???i s??? khi r???i Li??n minh ch??u ??u m?? kh??ng c?? th???a thu???n. B??? tr?????ng ph??? tr??ch c??c c??ng t??c chu???n b??? h???u Brexit cho bi???t c??c t??i li???u n??y ???? n??u b???t ???k???ch b???n trong tr?????ng h???p x???u nh???t???.

M???t ????m ch??y l???n ??? Bangladesh khi???n 10.000 ng?????i m???t nh?? c???a. ????m ch??y lan r???ng qua Chalantika, m???t khu ??? chu???t ????ng ????c ??? th??? ???? Dhaka. Kh??ng c?? b??o c??o v??? ng?????i ch???t v?? ng???n l???a hi???n ???? ???????c ki???m so??t. Kho???ng 100 ng?????i ???? ch???t trong c??c v??? h???a ho???n kh??c t???i th??nh ph??? ???????c ph??ng ch??y l???ng l???o n??y trong n??m nay.

M???t k??? ????nh bom t??? s??t c???a Nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o ???? gi???t ch???t 63 ng?????i kh??ch d??? ????m c?????i ??? Afghanistan. G???n 200 ng?????i kh??c b??? th????ng. Nh??m kh???ng b??? n??y kh??ng tham gia c??c cu???c ????m ph??n gi???a c??c chi???n binh Taliban v?? Hoa K???. T???ng th???ng Donald Trump r???t mu???n c???i thi???n an ninh t???i ????y ????? r??t h??ng ng??n l??nh M??? v??? n?????c.

Kho???ng 500 ng?????i bi???u t??nh c???c h???u ???? t???p h???p t???i Portland, Oregon, n??i h??? xung ?????t v???i c??c nh?? ho???t ?????ng ch???ng ph??t x??t, b???t ch???p s??? hi???n di???n ????ng ?????o c???a c???nh s??t. ????y l?? cu???c bi???u t??nh c???c h???u l???n nh???t ??? M??? k??? t??? khi Donald Trump tr??? th??nh t???ng th???ng. Portland, ???????c coi l?? m???t th??nh ph??? ph???n l???n theo xu h?????ng t??? do, ???? tr??? th??nh m???t chi???n tr?????ng gi???a hai b??n. ??ng Trump cho bi???t ch??nh quy???n c???a ??ng ??ang xem x??t vi???c coi nh???ng ng?????i ch???ng ph??t x??t l?? ???m???t t??? ch???c kh???ng b??????.

Nicolas Dujovne, B??? tr?????ng T??i ch??nh Argentina, ???? t??? ch???c. N???n kinh t??? Argentina ???? ch???u ??p l???c k??? t??? khi T???ng th???ng Mauricio Macri th???t b???i n???ng n??? trong cu???c b???u c??? s?? b??? v??o tu???n tr?????c. ?????ng peso ???? m???t 1/5 gi?? tr??? so v???i ?????ng ???? la M??? v?? c??c t??? ch???c x???p h???ng t??n d???ng ???? h??? m???c x???p h???ng c???a n?????c n??y. C??c th??? tr?????ng lo ng???i r???ng m???t ch??nh ph??? b???o h??? m???i b??y gi??? c?? nhi???u kh??? n??ng s??? ???????c h??nh th??nh.

Softbank, m???t c??ng ty ?????u t?? c???a Nh???t B???n, cho bi???t h??? s??? cho nh??n vi??n c???a m??nh vay 20 t??? ???? la ????? ?????u t?? v??o Qu??? Vision Fund m???i c???a m??nh, theo b??o c??o c???a Wall Street Journal. Masayoshi Son, ??ng ch??? Softbank, c?? th??? g??p m???t n???a s??? ti???n ????. Qu??? ?????u t?? m???o hi???m kh???ng l??? v??? c??ng ngh??? n??y ???? ???????c h???u thu???n b???i c??c c??ng ty nh?? Apple v?? Goldman Sachs.

TI??U ??I???M H??M NAY

X??t x??? c???u th??? t?????ng Malaysia Najib Razak

B???t ch???p nh???ng n??? l???c ????? tr?? ho??n c??c th??? t???c t??? t???ng, phi??n t??a th??? hai x??t x??? Najib Razak li??n quan ?????n tham nh??ng t???i qu??? 1MDB, m???t qu??? ?????u t?? c???a nh?? n?????c, d??? ki???n ??????s??? b???t ?????u v??o h??m nay. C???u th??? t?????ng Malaysia, ng?????i kh???ng ?????nh s??? v?? t???i c???a m??nh, ???? m???t quy???n l???c trong cu???c b???u c??? n??m ngo??i. C????ng l??nh ch???ng tham nh??ng c???a ?????i th??? c???a ??ng ???? thu h??t s??? ???ng h??? c???a ng?????i d??n Malaysia, nh???ng ng?????i c???m th???y kinh ho??ng v?? 4,5 t??? ???? la ???? bi???n m???t kh???i 1MDB, theo B??? T?? ph??p M???. Ch??nh ph??? hi???n t???i c???a Malaysia h???a s??? d???n d???p m??? h???n ?????n n??y.

B??n c???nh truy t??? ??ng Najib, ch??nh ph??? Malaysia c??ng t??m c??ch truy t??? c??c t??? ch???c h???p t??c v???i 1MDB, bao g???m c??? Goldman Sachs. Ng??n h??ng n??y ph??? nh???n c??c h??nh vi sai tr??i, nh??ng c???u ch??? t???ch ph??? tr??ch ????ng Nam ?? c???a ng??n h??ng, Tim Leissner, ???? nh???n t???i t???i M??? v??? c??c c??o bu???c r???a ti???n v?? h???i l??? ??? n?????c ngo??i. ?????u th??ng n??y, Malaysia ???? ????? ????n t??? c??o h??nh s??? ?????i v???i 12 nh??n vi??n c?? v?? n??m nh??n vi??n hi???n t???i c???a Goldman Sachs theo m???t ?????o lu???t v???n bu???c c??c nh??n vi??n c???p cao ch???u tr??ch nhi???m v??? c??c h??nh vi ph???m t???i c?? th??? ???? ???????c th???c hi???n trong ph???m vi gi??m s??t c???a h???. C??c nh?? ch???c tr??ch d?????ng nh?? mu???n ????a v??? vi???c t???i ng??n h??ng n??y ra l??m g????ng.

Kinh t??? Th??i Lan t??ng tr?????ng ch???m l???i

S??? li???u GDP h??ng qu?? c???a n???n kinh t??? l???n th??? hai ????ng Nam ?? s??? ???????c c??ng b??? h??m nay. C??c n???n kinh t??? kh??c trong khu v???c g???n ????y ???? c??ng b??? c??c s??? li???u kh??ng ???????c ?????p v?? Th??i Lan, v???n ph??? thu???c v??o th????ng m???i v?? du l???ch, s??? kh??ng ph???i ngo???i l???. T???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng h??ng n??m trong Qu?? II c?? th??? ???? ch???m l???i xu???ng c??n kho???ng 2,5%, t???c ????? th???p nh???t trong b???n n??m r?????i qua. N???n kinh t??? Th??i Lan ??? v???n l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i b???n n???n kinh t??? ??ang ph??t tri???n nhanh ch??ng c???a Vi???t Nam, Myanmar, Campuchia v?? L??o c???ng l???i ??? ??ang b??? ???? n???ng b???i c??c th??ch th???c th????ng m???i, n??? c???a h??? gia ????nh v?? h???n h??n.

Trong th??ng n??y, m???t ch??nh ph??? li??n minh m???i gi???a qu??n ?????i v?? phe b???o ho??ng ???? c??ng b??? g??i k??ch th??ch tr??? gi?? 10 t??? ???? la. Ch??nh ph??? c??ng ???? h???y vi???c t??ng l????ng t???i thi???u ???????c h???a h???n tr?????c ????y v?? ??ang th??c ?????y vi???c mi???n th??? th???c cho kh??ch du l???ch Trung Qu???c v?? ???n ?????. ?????u th??ng n??y, ng??n h??ng trung ????ng ???? c???t gi???m l??i su???t trong m???t ?????ng th??i b???t ng???. T???t c??? nh???ng ??i???u n??y s??? gi??p gi???m b???t s??? suy tho??i v?? gi??? cho n???n kinh t??? t??ng tr?????ng ??? m???c 2-3%. Nh??ng v???i t???c ????? n??y, vi???c ?????t ???????c v??? th??? qu???c gia c?? thu nh???p cao v??o n??m 2036, m???t tham v???ng c???a ch??nh ph???, s??? m???t v??i th???p ni??n n???a.

Qu???c h???i Anh mu???n ng??n ch???n m???t Brexit kh??ng th???a thu???n

H???u h???t c??c ngh??? s?? mu???n ng??n ch???n m???t Brexit kh??ng th???a thu???n. H??? ch??? kh??ng th??? ?????ng ?? v??? c??ch l??m nh?? th??? n??o. Jeremy Corbyn, l??nh ?????o C??ng ?????ng c??nh t???, ???? ????? ngh??? l??nh ?????o m???t ch??nh ph??? t???m quy???n. Ch??nh ph??? n??y s??? tr?? ho??n vi???c r??t Anh ra kh???i Li??n minh ch??u ??u v?? ti???n h??nh m???t cu???c t???ng tuy???n c??? m???i, v???i vi???c ?????ng c???a ??ng cam k???t s??? h??? tr??? m???t cu???c tr??ng c???u d??n ?? l???n th??? hai.

Jo Swinson, l??nh ?????o ?????ng D??n ch??? T??? do, ???? lo???i tr??? vi???c h???p t??c v???i ??ng Corbyn v?? Corbyn kh??ng th??? gi??nh ???????c s??? ???ng h??? c???a c??c ngh??? s?? ?????ng B???o th??? ??ang dao ?????ng. H??? kh??ng th??ch Brexit m?? kh??ng c?? th???a thu???n, nh??ng c??ng gh??t cay gh??t ?????ng ?? t?????ng ??ng Corbyn s??? n???m t???m quy???n, d?? ng???n bao l??u ??i n???a. ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i c??? g???ng tr??nh m???t Brexit v?? tr???t t???, s???m cho th???y nh???ng sai s??t c???a m???t ???ch??nh ph??? ??o??n k???t qu???c gia??? l?? m???t ??i???u t???t. C??c tr??? l?? tham m??u ??ang ????? ngh??? c??c ngh??? s?? n??n ???ng h??? m???t k??? ho???ch ????n gi???n h??n: bu???c ch??nh ph??? ph???i ho??n Brexit th??ng qua m???t ?????o lu???t thay v?? h??? b??? ch??nh ph???. V???i vi???c Th??? t?????ng Boris Johnson cam k???t s??? ????a Anh ra kh???i EU v??o ng??y 31 th??ng 10, th???i gian hi???n ??ang r???t c???p b??ch.

B???c m??n s???t ??? Hungary

Hungary l?? n??i ???vi??n g???ch ?????u ti??n ???? ???????c g??? kh???i B???c t?????ng Berlin???, Helmut Kohl, th??? t?????ng ?????u ti??n c???a n?????c ?????c th???ng nh???t, ???? n??i nh?? v???y v??o n??m 1990. Ba m????i n??m tr?????c ????y, g???n 700 ???kh??ch du l???ch??? ????ng ?????c, v???n t???i th??? tr???n Sopron c???a Hungary ????? th???c hi???n m???t chuy???n ???d?? ngo???i to??n ch??u ??u???, ???? ??i qua bi??n gi???i t???i ??o v?? t??? ???? ?????n T??y ?????c, t???n d???ng s??? tan b??ng c???a Chi???n tranh L???nh v?? s??? do d??? c???a nh???ng ng?????i l??nh bi??n ph??ng Hungary. H??ng ch???c ng??n ng?????i n???a s??? theo ch??n h??? trong v??i tu???n sau ???? tr?????c khi b???c t?????ng s???p ????? v??o th??ng 11.

H??m nay Angela Merkel v?? Viktor Orban, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????c v?? Hungary, s??? g???p nhau ??? Sopron ????? k??? ni???m s??? ki???n ?????c bi???t ????. S??? ki???n n??y s??? ?????i di???n v???i m???t s??? m???a mai: B?? Merkel l?? m???t c???u c??ng d??n ????ng ?????c nh??ng hi???n ??ang l??nh ?????o m???t n?????c ?????c th???ng nh???t, d??n ch???; c??n ??ng Orban c?? xu???t th??n ch??nh tr??? l?? m???t ng?????i ?????u tranh cho t??? do nh??ng sau khi n???m quy???n ???? tr??? th??nh m???t nh?? l??nh ?????o b??n chuy??n ch???.

B???o v??? c??c lo??i c?? nguy c?? tuy???t ch???ng

C??ng ?????c v??? Bu??n b??n Qu???c t??? c??c Lo??i c?? Nguy c?? Tuy???t ch???ng (CITES) li???t k?? g???n 6.000 lo??i ?????ng v???t ??ang b??? ??e d???a do khai th??c qu?? m???c. Trong s??? n??y c?? c??? voi. N??m 1989, lo??i voi ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nguy c?? tuy???t ch???ng sau khi m???t n???a s??? l?????ng c???a ch??ng ???? b??? x??a s??? b???i n???n s??n tr???m ch??? trong m???t th???p ni??n. CITES ???? ????a lo??i ?????ng v???t n??y v??o Ph??? l???c I c???a n??, c???m h???u nh?? t???t c??? c??c ho???t ?????ng mua b??n qu???c t??? ?????i v???i c??c s???n ph???m t??? voi.

Tu???n n??y, t???i h???i ngh??? t???i Geneva, CITES s??? xem x??t li???u c?? n??n n???i l???ng c??c quy ?????nh ??? nh???ng n??i m?? s??? l?????ng voi ???? ph???c h???i hay kh??ng. C??c qu???c gia mu???n n???i nh??? quy ?????nh c?? l?? do ch??nh ????ng. Nhi???u n?????c ???? ?????u t?? m???nh m??? ????? h???i ph???c ????n voi v?? b??y gi??? cho r???ng ng?????i ngh??o ph???i c?? m???t ph???n ?????ng l???c kinh t??? trong vi???c ti???p t???c vi???c b???o v??? ????n voi, v?? d??? nh?? b???ng c??ch ???????c ph??p b??n ng?? voi. Nh??ng kinh nghi???m t???i c??c qu???c gia nh?? Namibia v?? Nam Phi cho th???y ngay c??? m???t th??? tr?????ng h???p ph??p nh??? c??ng khuy???n kh??ch h??nh vi s??n tr???m b???ng c??ch cho ph??p nh???ng ng?????i bu??n b??n ch??? ??en bi???n ng?? voi b???t h???p ph??p th??nh ng?? voi h???p ph??p.
 

?????i Chi???n l?????c v?? Quy???n l???c Hoa K??? ??? CATBD t??? n??m 1783

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T??c gi???: Allan Gyngell | Bi??n d???ch: ??inh Nho Minh

By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia ??? Pacific since 1783. T??c gi???: Michael J. Green. New York: Columbia University Press, 2017. B??a c???ng: 725 trang.

Cu???n H??n c??? S??? m???ng Ch??a ban: ?????i Chi???n l?????c v?? Quy???n l???c Hoa K??? ??? Ch??u ??-Th??i B??nh D????ng t??? n??m 1783 nghi??n c???u r???t k??, vi???t r???t hay v??? ch??nh s??ch chi???n l?????c c???a Hoa K??? ??? Ch??u ??, v?? ???????c xu???t b???n r???t ????ng th???i ??i???m. L??c m?? ch??nh quy???n Trump ??ang c?? nh???ng ch??nh s??ch qu???c t??? kh?? l?????ng v?? kh??c v???i truy???n th???ng, c??c nh?? nghi??n c???u ch??nh s??ch ??? c??? hai ?????u Th??i B??nh D????ng c???n hi???u r?? h??n bao gi??? h???t v??? b???n ch???t c???a nh???ng truy???n th???ng ???? v?? nh???ng l???i ??ch ?????ng sau.

N???u m???t ???ng vi??n truy???n th???ng c???a ?????ng C???ng h??a thay v?? Trump th???ng c??? h???i th??ng 11/2016, Michael Green g???n nh?? ch???c ch???n s??? c?? m???t v??? tr?? c???p cao v??? an ninh qu???c gia ??? Washington. Thay v??o ????, ??ng ti???p t???c ????ng g??p v??o cu???c tranh lu???n v??? ch??nh s??ch t???i Trung t??m Nghi??n c???u Chi???n l?????c v?? Qu???c t??? (CSIS) v?? ?????i h???c Georgetown ??? Washington.

L???ch s??? giai ??o???n n??y l?? m???t ??i???m b???t ?????u quan tr???ng cho cu???c tranh lu???n. K??? t??? Chi???n tranh gi??nh ?????c l???p v?? nh???ng chuy???n t??u ?????u ti??n tr??? nh??n s??m t??? New England v??? Trung Qu???c ??? r???t l??u tr?????c khi Hoa K??? m??? r???ng kh???p l???c ?????a ??? Green nh???n ?????nh r???ng ???c??c m???i ??e d???a, giao th????ng, v?? n??ng l???c (c???a Hoa K???) ?????u g??p ph???n v??o chi???n l?????c b??nh tr?????ng v??o Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a Hoa K?????? (trang 76).

??ng vi???t r???ng tr???i qua hai th??? k???, n??m c??ng th???ng ???xu???t hi???n tr??? l???i v???i kh??? n??ng c?? th??? ??o??n tr?????c ???????c??? (trang 6) trong ti???p c???n chi???n l?????c c???a Hoa K??? v???i Ch??u ??: Ch??u ??u ch???ng Ch??u ??; ?????i l???c (Trung Qu???c) ch???ng l???i h??ng h???i (Nh???t B???n); v???n ????? n??n ?????t ???????ng ph??ng th??? ti???n ph????ng n??i n??o; quy???n t??? quy???t ch???ng l???i gi?? tr??? chung; ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? ch???ng l???i t??? do th????ng m???i. C??c l??nh ?????o c???a Hoa K??? ?????u ?????ng ?? r???ng m???c ti??u qu???c gia l?? ?????m b???o ???Th??i B??nh D????ng l?? n??i chuy???n ti???p gi?? tr??? v?? h??ng h??a Hoa K??? v??? ph??a T??y, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? con ???????ng cho c??c m???i ??e d???a ??i v??? ph??a n???i ?????a??? (trang 5).

Giao th????ng l?? m???t trong nh???ng y???u t??? c???t l??i trong c??u chuy???n c???a Green, trong l??c Hoa K??? ??ang t??m c??ch tranh gi??nh c?? h???i kinh t??? t???i Trung Qu???c t??? tay c??c ????? qu???c Ch??u ??u. N???a sau th??? k??? 19 ch???ng ki???n S??ng ki???n V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng phi??n b???n Hoa K??? b???i n?????c n??y t??m c??ch m??? r???ng v??? ph??a T??y v???i vi???c mua Alaska n??m 1867 v?? s??p nh???p Hawaii n??m 1898.

Cho ?????n ?????u th??? k??? 20, ?????c bi???t l?? th???i ch??nh quy???n T???ng th???ng Theodore Roosevelt, t???t c??? c??c y???u t??? c???a chi???n l?????c Hoa K??? t???i Ch??u ?? ???? ???????c h??nh th??nh. C??c y???u t??? n??y bao g???m ???m???t h???i qu??n m???nh, s??? hi???n di???n ??? T??y Th??i B??nh D????ng qua vi???c s??p nh???p ?????t ??ai, m??? r???ng ???nh h?????ng c???a Hoa K??? qua giao th????ng v???i s??? h??? tr??? v???i c??c n?????c Ch??u ?? ?????c l???p v???i ch??nh quy???n hi???u qu???, v?? s??? tham gia v??o ch??nh tr??? c?????ng quy???n ki???u Ch??u ??u??? (trang 104).

C??ch ti???p c???n n??y th??? hi???n quan ??i???m c???a h???c gi??? m?? Green ng?????ng m??? nh???t v?? c??ng l?? ng?????i ???? ???nh h?????ng t???i c??ch ??ng nghi??n c???u v??? khu v???c: s?? quan h???i qu??n, nh?? s??? h???c v?? chi???n l?????c gia v??? quy???n l???c h???ng h???i th??? k??? 19 Alfred Thayer Mahan. Green vi???t r???ng Mahan ???? ????a ra ????? t?????ng ?????i chi???n l?????c to??n di???n ?????u ti??n cho Hoa K??? v?? Th??i B??nh D????ng ??? t???n d???ng c??ng c??? ngo???i giao, gi?? tr???, qu??n s???, v?? kinh t??? ????? theo ??u???i l???i ??ch qu???c gia??? (trang 80). Trong s??? n??y bao g???m c??? c??c ???c??ng c??? c?????ng b???c khi c???n thi???t v?? c?? th?????? (trang 104).

Trong th??? k??? v???a qua, Hoa K??? ???? v?? hi???u h??a m???i ??e d???a t??? s??? b??nh tr?????ng c???a Nh???t B???n v?? Li??n X??. Hoa K??? ???? thi???t l???p ???????c m???t h??? th???ng li??n minh m???nh, c??ng nh?? ???ng h??? v?? ch???ng l??ng cho h??? th???ng giao th????ng m??? ????? t???o n??n k?? t??ch kinh t??? Ch??u ??.

Cu???n s??ch c??ng nh???c ?????n nh???ng v???n ????? kh?? nh?? v???n ????? h???t nh??n c???a Tri???u Ti??n. T???ng th???ng Bill Clinton ???? tuy??n b??? v??o th??ng 11 n??m 1993 r???ng B??nh Nh?????ng ???kh??ng th??? ???????c ph??p ph??t tri???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n??? sau khi B??nh Nh?????ng r??t kh???i Hi???p ?????c Ch???ng Ph??? bi???n V?? kh?? H???t nh??n (trang 466).

Nh??n chung, ????ng Nam ?? ???????c nh???c ?????n ??t h??n trong c??u chuy???n ?????a ch??nh tr??? so v???i ????ng B???c ??. C??c n?????c nh?? Philippines v?? Vi???t Nam ??ang gi???ng nh?? ?????u tr?????ng n??i ?????i chi???n l?????c di???n ra h??n l?? ng?????i ch??i ch??? ?????ng trong qu?? tr??nh n??y. C?? m???t c??u chuy???n kh??c ??? ????y, nh??ng d??? hi???u l?? Green kh??ng ????? ?????ng g?? ?????n n??.

Gi???ng v??n c???a cu???n s??ch thay ?????i khi vi???t v??? th???i k?? t??c gi??? ??ang n???m gi??? v??? tr?? cao c???p trong ch??nh quy???n T???ng th???ng George W. Bush. B???n th??n t??c gi??? mi??u t??? s??? thay ?????i n??y l?? ???t??? m???t s??? gia???th??nh m???t ng?????i ch??p s??? trong cu???c??? (trang 483). Cu???c tranh lu???n ??? Washington d?????i th???i Bush v?? Obama v?? v???y s??? nghe gi???ng h???i k?? h??n l???ch s??? v?? s??? c???n c?? th??m th???i gian ki???m ch???ng tr?????c khi ???nh h?????ng v?? k???t qu??? c???a c??c cu???c tranh lu???n ???? c?? th??? ???????c th???y r??.

Green k???t lu???n m???t c??ch th???n tr???ng v?? thuy???t ph???c r???ng ?????i chi???n l?????c Hoa K??? th?????ng ???kh??ng li???n m???ch v?? thi???u hi???u qu???, nh??ng v??? t???ng th??? th?? hi???u qu??? (trang 541).

Tuy nhi??n hi???n gi???, m???c ti??u d??i h???n ki???u Mahan l?? ng??n ch???n s??? tr???i d???y c???a ???b???t c??? ?????i th??? b?? quy???n n??o ??? trong l???c ?????a Ch??u ????? (trang 81) ??ang b??? th??ch th???c h??n bao gi??? h???t. S??? d???ng c??c c??ng c??? kinh t???, qu??n s??? v?? ?????i ngo???i, Trung Qu???c d?????i th???i Ch??? t???ch T???p C???n B??nh l?? m???t ?????i th??? v???i t???m c??? m?? Hoa K??? ch??a bao gi??? ph???i ?????i m???t ??? khu v???c. Theo l???i Green: ???c?? h???i ????? Hoa K??? s???a sai n???u m???c ph???i sai l???m ??? Ch??u ?? ??ang h???p d???n??? (trang 428). ????? ?????i ph?? hi???u qu???, c??c l??nh ?????o Hoa K??? c???n n???m v???ng ???chi???n l?????c ph???c t???p ??t nh???t nh?? l?? m???t v??n c??? vua ba chi???u??? (trang 543).

Tuy nhi??n hi???n gi??? c?? v??? Washington ch??a n???m v???ng ???????c ??i???u ????. Ch??nh s??ch b???o h??? th????ng m???i, c??c t??n hi???u n???a v???i v???i ?????ng minh v?? thi???u cam k???t v???i c??c gi?? tr??? c???t l??i c???a tr???t t??? th??? gi???i t??? do d?????i th???i T???ng th???ng Trump ??i ng?????c l???i nh???ng chi???n l?????c l??u d??i m?? Green ???? ????? ra trong cu???n s??ch c???a ??ng. Nh??ng khi Hoa K??? ???? c??n b???ng l???i ???????c v??? m???t ch??nh tr??? v?? c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch b???t ?????u ho???ch ?????nh k??? ho???ch m???i cho t????ng lai, h??? ch???c ch???n ph???i b???t ?????u t??? cu???n s??ch c???a Green.

Allan Gyngell l?? Gi??o s?? Danh d??? t???i ?????i h???c Qu???c gia Australia, Canberra.

Ngu???n b??i ??i???m s??ch b???ng ti???ng Anh: Contemporary Southeast Asia, Vol. 39, No. 3 (2017), pp. 574-76.
 

T???i sao l?? c??? c?? c???a H?? Lan l?? bi???u t?????ng ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c?

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20150627_usp505

Ngu???n: ???How an old Dutch flag became a racist symbol???, The Economist, 22/6/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

C??c ph???n t??? ph???n ?????ng th?????ng th??ch th?? v???i nh???ng l?? c??? kh??ng c??n t???n t???i. Dylann Roof, m???t k??? 21 tu???i theo thuy???t Ng?????i da tr???ng th?????ng ?????ng v???a b??? b???t v?? t???i gi???t ch??n ng?????i M??? g???c Phi t???i m???t nh?? th??? ??? Charleston v??o tu???n tr?????c, t???ng ????ng h??nh ???nh c???a m???t v??i l?? c??? nh?? th??? l??n m???ng internet. Tr??n m???t trang web m?? h???n t???o ra ????? qu???ng b?? c??c quan ??i???m ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c c???a m??nh (hi???n ???? b??? g??? b???), c?? h??nh ???nh h???n ??ang c???m l?? c??? c?? n???i ti???ng c???a M???: c??? Li??n minh mi???n Nam Hoa K???, ?????i di???n cho phe ???ng h??? ch??? ????? n?? l??? trong cu???c n???i chi???n M???. Th??m n???a, trong m???t b??i ????ng tr??n Facebook, Roof m???c m???t chi???c ??o kho??c in h??nh l?? c??? c?? c???a Rhodesia (nay l?? Zimbabwe) v?? l?? c??? th???i ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c ??? Nam Phi. Trong ????, l?? c??? c?? c???a Nam Phi l?? g??y t?? m?? nh???t, v?? n?? ???????c d???a tr??n m???t l?? c??? c?? c???a C???ng h??a H?? Lan h???i th??? k??? 18. K??? l??? h??n n???a, ch??nh l?? c??? c?? ???? c???a H?? Lan c??ng mang ???n ?? v??? s??? ph???n ?????ng v?? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c. T???i sao l???i nh?? v???y?

L?? c??? c?? c???a Li??n bang Nam Phi ???????c s??? d???ng t??? n??m 1928, nh???ng ng??y ?????u c???a ch??? ????? do ng?????i da tr???ng c???m quy???n, ?????n n??m 1994, khi s??? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c ???????c x??a b??? v?? ng?????i da m??u ?????t ???????c b??nh ?????ng v??? ch??nh tr???. Thi???t k??? c???a n?? ph???n ??nh ngu???n g???c l???ch s??? c???a ?????t n?????c, l?? m???t thu???c ?????a do ng?????i da tr???ng ch??u ??u cai tr???. N?? c??ng th??? hi???n c??c cu???c xung ?????t d??i h??ng th??? k??? gi???a hai nh??m d??n da tr???ng, m???t b??n l?? h???u du??? c???a nh???ng ng?????i H?? Lan di c?? sang (th?????ng g???i l?? ng?????i Boer) v?? m???t b??n l?? nh???ng ng?????i Anh ?????n sau. N???n c??? d???a tr??n m???t trong nh???ng l?? c??? c???a C??c t???nh H?? Lan Th???ng nh???t (United Provinces of the Netherlands) khi n?? c??n l?? m???t ????? qu???c to??n c???u trong th??? k??? 18, v???i ba s???c ngang: cam, tr???ng v?? xanh. Tr??n s???c tr???ng, n???m ??? trung t??m, c?? ba l?? c??? kh??c ???????c thu nh???. B??n tr??i l?? c??? Anh, ?????i di???n cho nh???ng v??ng ven bi???n l?? thu???c ?????a c???a Anh t??? n??m 1806 ?????n n??m 1910. ??? ch??nh gi???a v?? b??n ph???i l???n l?????t l?? c??? c???a Orange Free State (Nh?? n?????c t??? do Orange) v?? Transvaal, hai n?????c c???ng h??a m?? ng?????i Boer cai tr??? ??? v??ng trung t??m cho ?????n khi h??? thua tr???n tr?????c ng?????i Anh trong m???t cu???c chi???n t??? n??m 1899 ?????n n??m 1902 (Chi???n tranh Boer l???n hai ??? NH??).

C??? Nam Phi th???i k??? 1928-1994
C??? Nam Phi th???i k??? 1928-1994
20150627_usp512_290
C??? Prinsenvlag

M??u cam bi???u t?????ng cho l??ng y??u n?????c c???a ng?????i Boers ??? Nam Phi v?? nh???ng ng?????i anh em H?? Lan c???a h???. M??u n??y b???t ngu???n t??? William x??? Orange-Nassau, v??? qu?? t???c ???? ch??? huy cu???c chi???n ch???ng T??y Ban Nha ????? gi??nh ?????c l???p cho H?? Lan, v?? sau ????, con ch??u ??ng ???? tr??? th??nh c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o qu??n ?????i c???a C???ng h??a H?? Lan (m?? ng??y nay l?? Ho??ng gia H?? Lan.) Nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? William ???? d??ng m???t l?? c??? mang m??u s???c c???a d??ng h??? ??ng (Nh?? Orange-Nassau,) m?? ng?????i H?? Lan g???i l?? Oranje-blanje-bleu (m???t bi???t danh d??ng th??? ti???ng ???b???i??? lai gi???a ti???ng H?? Lan v?? ti???ng Ph??p). N?? th?????ng ???????c g???i l?? ???Prinsenvlag??? h??n, ngh??a l?? c??? c???a ho??ng t???. Tuy nhi??n, n?? kh??ng ph???i l?? c??? H?? Lan hi???n nay. H?? Lan ???? lu??n d??ng m???t l?? c??? m??u ?????, tr???ng v?? xanh. Phi??n b???n n??y ???? tr??? th??nh l?? c??? duy nh???t t??? n??m 1795 ?????n 1814, khi nh?? n?????c H?? Lan ???? tr???i qua m???t lo???t c??c bi???n ?????i, bao g???m m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng ch???ng Nh?? Orange v?? vi???c H?? Lan b??? Ph??p chi???m ????ng (n??m 1793). C??? Prinsenvlag tr??? l???i sau khi Nh?? Orange l??n n???m quy???n l???n n???a v??o n??m 1814, nh??ng l?? c??? ?????, tr???ng, xanh v???n chi???m ??u th???.

Trong su???t th??? k??? 19, khi H?? Lan d??n ch??? h??a v?? phong tr??o c??ng nh??n ??? ????y t??ng l??n, c??? Oranje-blanje-bleu d???n g???n li???n v???i phe c???c h???u c?? t?? t?????ng d??n t???c ch??? ngh??a. C??nh h???u H?? Lan th?????ng ???ng h??? Nh?? Orange, trong khi c??nh t??? th?????ng mu???n h???n ch??? ho???c lo???i b??? ch??? ????? qu??n ch???. Trong nh???ng n??m ?????u th??? k??? 20, phe c???c h???u ???? s???n sinh ra phong tr??o ph??t x??t ri??ng c???a H?? Lan ??? phong tr??o Qu???c x?? (Nationaal-Socialistische Beweging ??? NSB). N??m 1937, n??? ho??ng H?? Lan ch???n l?? c??? ?????, tr???ng v?? xanh l??m c??? ch??nh th???c, nh??ng NSB v???n ???ng h??? vi???c s??? d???ng c??? Prinsenvlag. Khi ?????c Qu???c x?? chi???m ????ng n?????c n??y v?? d??ng NSB nh?? m???t ch??? ????? b?? nh??n ??? ?????a ph????ng, c??? Prinsenvlag th??? hi???n ??m h?????ng c???a h??? t?? t?????ng ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c ?????c Qu???c x??; gi???ng nh?? c??? Li??n minh mi???n Nam Hoa K???, n?? c??ng tr??? th??nh bi???u t?????ng cho s??? ph???n qu???c. Nhi???u th???p ni??n sau Th??? chi???n II, d??ng c??? Prinsenvlag ??? H?? Lan ???????c xem nh?? l?? ph???n ?????ng, t????ng t??? nh?? vi???c d??ng bi???u t?????ng ch??? v???n (c???a ?????c Qu???c x??).

Tuy nhi??n, trong v??i n??m qua Prinsenvlag l???i tr??? th??nh m???t v???n ????? g??y chia r??? trong xung ?????t ch??nh tr??? m???i t???i H?? Lan v??? ch???ng t???c, t??n gi??o v?? di c??. Ch??nh kh??ch d??n t??y ch???ng nh???p c?? v?? ch???ng H???i gi??o Geert Wilders v?? ?????ng T??? do (PVV) c???a ??ng tuy??n b??? l?? c??? l?? m???t bi???u t?????ng c???a ni???m t??? h??o H?? Lan v?? c???n ???????c thanh t???y ?? ngh??a ?????c Qu???c x?? c???a n??. M???t v??? ???n ??o tr??n truy???n th??ng qu???c gia ???? n??? ra v??o n??m 2011 khi l?? c??? ???????c ph??t hi???n tr??n c???a s??? v??n ph??ng c???a ?????ng n??y trong Qu???c h???i. PVV s??? d???ng Prinsenvlag t????ng t??? nh?? c??ch m?? nh???ng ng?????i c??nh h???u ??? mi???n Nam n?????c M??? s??? d???ng c??? Li??n minh mi???n Nam Hoa K???: m???t s??? khi??u kh??ch ch??nh tr???. ??i???u n??y t???o c?? s??? cho c??nh t??? ????a ra nh???ng c??o bu???c ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c, v?? do ???? c??ng l??m t??ng s??? o??n gi???n v?? ??o??n k???t ph??a c??nh h???u.

C??? qu???n Bronx, New York
C??? qu???n Bronx, New York

Roof c?? th??? kh??ng ???????c nh???n th???c ???????c ??i???u n??y, nh??ng vi???c h???n d??ng h??nh ???nh l?? c??? c?? c???a Nam Phi l?? m???t h??nh vi hai trong m???t: m???t l?? c??? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c c?? d???a tr??n m???t l?? c??? c?? kh??c, m?? hi???n t???i ch??nh n?? c??ng b??? xem l?? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c. V?? c?? l??? c??ng k??? l??? khi m?? l?? c??? n??y l???i g???n li???n v???i H?? Lan, m???t ?????t n?????c v???n l??u nay n???i ti???ng v??? l??ng khoan dung, d?? hi???n t???i ??t nhi???u b??? phai nh???t. Nh??ng trong khi ?????i tuy???n b??ng ???? qu???c gia H?? Lan v???n m???c m??u cam, Oranje-blanje-bleu ???? d???n kh??ng c??n ???????c s??? d???ng ch??nh th???c, kh??ng ch??? ??? H?? Lan, m?? c??? tr??n nh???ng l?? c??? c???a c??c c???u thu???c ?????a c???a ????? qu???c H?? Lan ??? v???i m???t v??i ngo???i l???. Ba thu???c ?????a c?? c???a H?? Lan v???n d??ng l?? c??? m??u cam, tr???ng v?? xanh l?? th??nh ph??? Albany, th??nh ph??? New York, v?? qu???n Bronx (thu???c New York). Nh???ng th??nh ph??? n??y s??? d???ng c??c m??u s???c c?? nh???m kh??i g???i l???i m???t b???n s???c ?????a ph????ng x??a c?? theo ch??? ngh??a t??? do H?? Lan.

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