Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 17/08/2019

Thứ sáu - 16/08/2019 22:02
C???nh s??t ch???ng b???o ?????ng Zimbabwe h??m qua ???? t???n c??ng v?? b???n h??i cay ng?????i bi???u t??nh, v??i gi??? sau khi m???t t??a ??n b??c b??? n??? l???c c???a c??c nh??m ?????i l???p nh???m ?????o ng?????c l???nh c???m ?????i v???i m???t cu???c bi???u t??nh ???? ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch nh???m ph???n ?????i c??ch ch??nh ph??? x??? l?? n???n kinh t??? ??ang tr??n ???? s???p ?????. M???c d?? vi???c thay th??? ch???c v??? t???ng th???ng c???a ??ng Robert Mugabe l?? nh???m th??c ?????y t??ng tr?????ng, song kho???ng 5 tri???u
Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 17/08/2019

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 17/08/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

TIN V???N H??M QUA

C???nh s??t ch???ng b???o ?????ng Zimbabwe h??m qua ???? t???n c??ng v?? b???n h??i cay ng?????i bi???u t??nh, v??i gi??? sau khi m???t t??a ??n b??c b??? n??? l???c c???a c??c nh??m ?????i l???p nh???m ?????o ng?????c l???nh c???m ?????i v???i m???t cu???c bi???u t??nh ???? ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch nh???m ph???n ?????i c??ch ch??nh ph??? x??? l?? n???n kinh t??? ??ang tr??n ???? s???p ?????. M???c d?? vi???c thay th??? ch???c v??? t???ng th???ng c???a ??ng Robert Mugabe l?? nh???m th??c ?????y t??ng tr?????ng, song kho???ng 5 tri???u ng?????i d??n Zimbabwe v???n c??n ??? trong t??nh tr???ng c???n vi???n tr??? l????ng th???c.

Theo qu??n ?????i H??n Qu???c, Tri???u Ti??n ???? b???n ??t nh???t hai t??n l???a t???m ng???n v??o Bi???n Nh???t B???n. C??c v??? ph??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh ngay sau khi Tri???u Ti??n m?? t??? t???ng th???ng H??n Qu???c l?? ???tr?? tr??o??? v?? th??? r???ng c??c cu???c ????m ph??n li??n Tri???u ???? k???t th??c. C??c cu???c ????m ph??n phi h???t nh??n h??a tr??n th???c t??? ???? b??? ????nh tr??? m???c cho l???i h???a s??? h???i sinh ch??ng c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o M??? v?? Tri???u Ti??n h???i th??ng 6.

???n ????? cho bi???t h??? s??? b???t ?????u n???i l???ng c??c h???n ch??? ?????i v???i Kashmir, tuy??n b??? r???ng d???ch v??? ??i???n tho???i c??? ?????nh s??? s???m ???????c kh??i ph???c. Song, h??? kh??ng n??i c??? th??? khi n??o d???ch v??? di ?????ng v?? internet s??? ???????c n???i l???i. Ch??nh ph??? c??ng ???? c???m h???i h???p c??ng khai, b??? t?? h??ng ch???c ch??nh tr??? gia v?? lo???i b??? c??c d??n x???p ch??nh tr??? ?????c bi???t trong ?????ng th??i si???t ch???t g???n ????y, vi???n d???n r???ng khu v???c n??y ???? g??y ra kh???ng b??? v?? tham nh??ng.

Th????ng m???i gi???a c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n khu v???c ?????ng euro ???? gi???m 6,6% trong th??ng 6 so v???i c??ng k??? n??m ngo??i. ????y l?? s??? s???t gi???m nhanh nh???t k??? t??? th??ng 3 n??m 2013. Xu???t kh???u t??? khu v???c ?????ng euro ??i ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i gi???m 4,7%, t???c ????? nhanh nh???t k??? t??? th??ng 8 n??m 2016. C??c con s??? n??y ???? l??m gia t??ng lo ng???i r???ng EU c?? th??? s???m b?????c v??o suy tho??i.

M???t ???v???n ????? k??? thu???t??? ???? tr?? ho??n vi???c b???t ?????u ng??y giao d???ch tr??n S??n giao d???ch ch???ng kho??n London (LSE) kho???ng 100 ph??t. M???c d?? th??? tr?????ng AIM d??nh cho c??c c??ng ty nh??? v???n m??? c???a ????ng gi???, song giao d???ch c??? phi???u tr??n s??n FTSE 350, g???m 350 c??ng ty ?????i ch??ng ni??m y???t l???n nh???t c???a Anh, ???? kh??ng th??? di???n ra tr??n n???n t???ng LSE ????ng gi???. ????y l?? l???n tr?? ho??n v??o bu???i s??ng d??i nh???t c???a LSE k??? t??? n??m 2011.

Rupert Hogg, CEO c???a Cathay Pacific, ???? t??? ch???c. ??ng Hogg ???? l??m gi??m ?????c ??i???u h??nh c???a h??ng h??ng kh??ng H???ng K??ng t??? n??m 2017 v?? ???? ????a c??ng ty n??y tr??? l???i l???i nhu???n sau hai n??m thua l???. Tuy??n b??? t??? ch???c c???a ??ng ???????c ????a ra sau khi Cathay b??? bu???c ph???i sa th???i m???t s??? nh??n vi??n tham gia v??o c??c cu???c bi???u t??nh ??? H???ng K??ng, tr?????c ??e d???a b??? tr???ng ph???t b???i c??c c?? quan qu???n l?? an to??n h??ng kh??ng Trung Qu???c.

Theo b??o c??o c???a Wall Street Journal v???n ???? ???????c x??c nh???n qua c??c ngu???n kh??c, T???ng th???ng Donald Trump ???? c??n nh???c mua ?????o Greenland t??? ??an M???ch. N?????c M??? c?? c??c c?? s??? qu??n s??? tr??n h??n ?????o b??n t??? tr??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i n??y. M???t nh?? l???p ph??p Greenland cho bi???t, c??u tr??? l???i s??? l?? ?????? kh??ng, c???m ??n nh?????, c??n c???u th??? t?????ng ??an M???ch, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, th?? g???i ????y l?? m???t tr?? ????a C?? th??ng T?? ??? kh??ng ????ng ???m??a???!

TI??U ??I???M H??M NAY

Gi???i v?? ?????ch Pokemon th??? gi???i

H??ng tr??m ng?????i ch??i Pokemon s??? ?????n Washington, DC v??o ng??y 16 th??ng 8, ????? tham d??? Gi???i v?? ?????ch Pokemon th??? gi???i 2019. Pokemon ???????c khai sinh ??? Nh???t B???n v??o n??m 1996 v?? ???? tr??? th??nh m???t th????ng hi???u gi???i tr?? r???ng l???n bao g???m c??c tr?? ch??i video, tr?? ch??i b??i v?? phim ho???t h??nh, thu ???????c 90 t??? ???? la trong su???t v??ng ?????i c???a n??. Gi???i v?? ?????ch ch??? d??nh cho nh???ng ng?????i ???????c m???i, song c??ng c?? m???t ng?????i h??m m??? may m???n s??? gi??nh ???????c m???t v?? tham d??? th??ng qua r??t th??m tr??ng th?????ng do ban t??? ch???c gi???i ?????u ??i???u h??nh.

S??? ki???n n??y s??? ????a c??c ng?????i ch??i c???a c??? tr?? ch??i b??i v?? tr?? ch??i video c???nh tranh v???i nhau, trong cu???c ??ua theo ??u???i danh d???, vinh quang v?? m???t chu???i c??c gi???i th?????ng bao g???m c??c h???c b???ng, voucher du l???ch ho???c ti???n m???t tr??? gi?? t???ng c???ng h??n 500.000 ???? la. V?? d??nh cho kh??n gi??? ???? ???????c b??n h???t t??? ng??y 6 th??ng 8. May m???n thay, ch??ng ta v???n c?? th??? theo d??i cu???c thi ??? nh??: c??? c??c tr???n ?????u c???a tr?? ch??i video v?? tr?? ch??i b??i s??? ???????c ph??t tr??n YouTube v?? tr??n Twitch, m???t trang web chuy??n v??? stream game ???????c Amazon mua l???i v??o n??m 2014.

Ch???n ??o??n t??? k???

Ch???n ??o??n tr??? t??? k??? l?? m???t nh??nh khoa h???c kh??ng ch??nh x??c, ph??? thu???c v??o c??c ph??n t??ch h??nh vi c???a chuy??n gia. Ch???n ??o??n trung b??nh ??? M??? s??? kh??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh cho ?????n khi ?????a tr??? ???????c b???n tu???i, v?? n???u s???m h??n ?????a tr??? m???c b???nh c?? th??? b??? ???nh h?????ng. Song m???t nghi??n c???u m???i tr??n Current Biology, m???t t???p ch?? khoa h???c, ???? c??ng b??? m???t th?? nghi???m s??? d???ng m???t hi???n t?????ng g???i l?? ????????i ngh???ch l?????ng nh??n???: m???i m???t ???????c xem m???t h??nh ???nh kh??c nhau, v?? nh???n th???c gi???a ch??ng bi???n thi??n.

C??c t??c gi??? tr?????c ????y ???? ph??t hi???n ra r???ng c??c b??? n??o m???c t??? k??? chuy???n ?????i gi???a c??c h??nh ???nh ch???m h??n. H??? quy ??i???u n??y l?? do s??? thi???u h???t c??c ch???t d???n truy???n th???n kinh GABA, c?? vai tr?? l???c c??c k??ch th??ch gi??c quan. C??c nh?? nghi??n c???u ???? ph??n t??ch s??ng n??o t??? m???t ??i???n c???c tr??n v??? n??o th??? gi??c v?? ???? c?? th??? x??c ?????nh ng?????i tr?????ng th??nh m???c ch???ng t??? k??? v???i ????? ch??nh x??c 87%. H??n n???a, ph????ng ph??p n??y d??? ??o??n m???c ????? nghi??m tr???ng c???a b???nh t??? k??? t??? t???c ????? chuy???n ?????i (gi???a c??c h??nh ???nh) trong n??o. C??c t??c gi??? th???a nh???n r???ng nh???ng ng?????i t??? k??? c?? ????? nh???y c???m th??? gi??c kh??c nhau, song th?? nghi???m d?? sao c??ng r???t ????ng kh??ch l???. B?????c ti???p theo s??? l?? ph??t tri???n ph????ng ph??p n??y cho tr??? em ch??a h???c n??i ??? c?? th??? ?????ng th???i cho 30% ng?????i l???n m???c ch???ng t??? k??? v?? b??? c??m.

M??n leo t?????ng ???????c ????a v??o Olympic 2020

B???n c?? th??? leo m???t b???c t?????ng 15 m??t nhanh c??? n??o? Reza Alipour, ng?????i gi??? k??? l???c th??? gi???i m??n leo t?????ng nam, th???c hi???n ??i???u n??y trong n??m gi??y r?????i. Leo t?????ng s??? ra m???t l???n ?????u ti??n t???i Th??? v???n h???i Olympic n??m 2020. V??ng lo???i c???a s??? ki???n n??y di???n ra t???i Gi???i v?? ?????ch Leo t?????ng Th??? gi???i, ??ang di???n ra t???i Hachioji ??? Nh???t B???n. Leo t?????ng l?? m???t s??? b??? sung th??ng minh cho Th??? v???n h???i. M??n n??y ???? tr??? n??n n???i ti???ng k??? t??? s??? ph??t h??nh v??o n??m ngo??i c???a ???Free Solo???, m???t b??? phim t??i li???u gi??nh gi???i Oscar.

Tuy nhi??n, nh???ng ng?????i ch??i ??ang ph???i th??ch nghi v???i m???t th??? th???c thi ?????u Olympic m???i. C??c ?????i th??? ???????c ghi ??i???m qua ba ph???n: t???c ?????, d???n ?????u (b???ng d??y th???ng, leo cao nh???t c?? th??? trong s??u ph??t m?? kh??ng ng??) v?? leo ???? (kh??ng c?? d??y th???ng, c??? g???ng leo b???n tuy???n ???????ng tr??n m???t b???c t?????ng ng???n h??n v???i b???n ph??t m???i l???n, cho ph??p ng??). Nh???ng ng?????i leo t?????ng ??u t?? th?????ng ch??? chuy??n v??? m???t m??n duy nh???t. Shauna Coxsey, m???t nh?? v?? ?????ch leo ????, ???? v?? n?? nh?? vi???c Usain Bolt, ng?????i gi??? k??? l???c th??? gi???i n?????c r??t 100 m??t, tham d??? m???t cu???c ??ua Marathon. Nh??ng c?? ???y, gi???ng nh?? c??c ?????i th??? c???a m??nh, b??y gi??? ph???i l??m c??? ba.

Nh??n l???i c??i ch???t c???a c??? TTK Li??n Hi???p Qu???c Dag Hammarskjold

???????y c?? th??? l?? b?? ???n gi???t ng?????i l???n nh???t th??? gi???i ho???c l?? thuy???t ??m m??u ngu ng???c nh???t th??? gi???i???, Mads Brugger xem ra r???t th??nh th???c trong ???Cold Case Hammarskjold???, m???t b??? phim t??i li???u m???i nh???t c???a ??ng v??? v??? r??i m??y bay ??? Zambia h???i n??m 1961 l??m ch???t T???ng Th?? k?? LHQ khi ???y Dag Hammarskjold. Nh???ng nghi ng??? v??? h??nh vi ch??i x???u xu???t hi???n r???t nhi???u. L??c ???y, Hammarskjold ??ang tr??n ???????ng ?????n c??c cu???c ????m ph??n h??a b??nh ??? Congo, m???t n??i ???? n??ng l??n v?? Chi???n tranh L???nh. M???t s??? ng?????i tin r???ng CIA ho???c c??c l???c l?????ng b??n qu??n s??? Apartheid c?? th??? c?? li??n quan.

C??c v??? tai n???n m??y bay, th?????ng kh??ng c?? b???t k??? nh??n ch???ng n??o, c?? xu h?????ng ch??m ng??i cho c??c thuy???t ??m m??u. Li??n H???p Qu???c c??ng c?? v??? kh??ng h??i l??ng v???i ph??t hi???n ban ?????u v??? l???i phi c??ng: h??? ???? m??? l???i m???t cu???c ??i???u tra v??? v??? tai n???n c???a Hammarskjold v??o n??m 2014, v???i m???t b??o c??o d??? ki???n s??? ???????c ????a ra v??o cu???i n??m nay. Nh??ng v?? v???y nh???ng ng?????i th??ch thuy???t ??m m??u ch???c ch???n s??? xem vi???c n??y l?? d???u hi???u cho th???y s??? vi???c kh??ng h??? ch??? c?? th???.

H???c l???ch s??? t??? s??ng Thames

???T??i r???t ng???c nhi??n khi c?? r???t nhi???u ng?????i kh??ng nh???n ra r???ng b???n ch???t d??ng s??ng ??? trung t??m London l?? th???y tri???u??? Lara Maiklem vi???t trong cu???n ???Mudlarking: Lost and Found on the River Thames??? s??? ???????c xu???t b???n v??o cu???i tu???n n??y. S??ng Thames ??? v??nh c???u, t??nh l???ng  v?? li??u trai ??? l?? l?? do k??o ng?????i La M?? ?????n, b?? Maiklem nh???c nh??? ?????c gi??? nh?? v???y trong cu???n s??ch k???t h???p gi???a h???i k?? v?? l???ch s???.

Ch??nh th???y tri???u l??m cho b??n ??? London tr??? n??n ?????c ????o. Khi d??ng s??ng r??t xu???ng v?? b??? bi???n ???????c ph??i b??y, b?? Maiklem n??i, ???t??i thu th???p ???????c nh???ng g?? m?? ng?????i kh??c ???? m???t ??i???: t??i s???n c???a nh???ng con ng?????i b??nh th?????ng, ???m???i m???nh nh??? l?? ch??a kh??a ?????n m???t th??? gi???i kh??c v?? li??n h??? tr???c ti???p v???i m???t cu???c s???ng b??? l??ng qu??n t??? l??u???. C?? ???? t??m th???y m???t c??i mu???ng nh??? d??ng ????? ngo??y r??y tai, m???t chi???c c??o r??ng, k???p t??c La M??, ????? gi??y, h???t v??ng, chai l??? c???a th???i k?? Victoria, n???a ?????ng xu Georgia v?? ???ng ?????t s??t, ???c?? ??? kh???p n??i v???i th???y tri???u s??ng Thames???. B???t ???????c m???t v??i inch cu???i c??ng c???a d???i ?????t b???i ??? bi???n, theo l???i m???t ng?????i b???n ???? tham gia c??ng c?? ??? ????, ch??nh l?? ??i t??m m???t c??nh c???ng ?????n m???t th??? gi???i kh??c.
 

C??n b???ng chi???n l?????c b???p b??nh c???a Vi???t Nam

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T??c gi???: L?? Thu H?????ng

K??? t??? khi v?????t qua nh???ng n??m th??ng b??? c?? l???p ?????n cu???i nh???ng n??m 1990, Vi???t Nam ???? theo ??u???i chi??nh sa??ch ?????a ph????ng h??a v?? ??a d???ng h??a quan h??? ?????i ngo???i???. T??? n??m 2001, Vi???t Nam ???? b???t ?????u thi???t l???p m???t m???ng l?????i c??c m???i quan h??? ?????i t??c ???????c ?????nh ngh??a m???t c??ch linh ho???t, bao g???m: ???to??n di???n???(t??ng c?????ng quan h??? song ph????ng v?? ngo???i giao kinh t???), ???chi???n l?????c??? v?? ???chi???n l?????c to??n di???n??? (m???c cao nh???t c???a h???p t??c d???a tr??n m???i quan h??? d??i h???n).

N??m 2013, m???t n??m ?????c bi???t hi???u qu??? c???a ngo???i giao Vi???t Nam, H?? N???i th??nh l???p s??u m???i quan h??? ?????i t??c m???i, m???t trong s??? ???? l?? v???i M???. M???c d?? ch??? l?? ?????i t??c to??n di???n ??? m???t b???c th???p h??n so v???i ???chi???n l?????c??? ??? nh??ng ???? l?? m???t s??? ti???n b??? r???t quan tr???ng ?????i v???i quan h??? Vi???t -M???.

Quan h??? ?????i t??c Vi???t ??? M??? cho th???y s??? cam k???t ti???p t???c ?????i v???i h???p t??c hi???n h???u v??? th????ng m???i, gi??o d???c v?? ph??t tri???n. ?????i v???i Vi???t Nam, n??ng c???p quan h??? Vi???t ??? M??? c??n ch???a ?????ng l???i ??ch ???????c tham gia v??o Hi???p ?????nh Quan h??? ?????i t??c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng (TPP). Trong khi gi??p t??ng c?????ng h??n n???a quan h??? v???i M???, m???i quan h??? ?????i t??c to??n di???n c??ng s??? g??p ph???n t??ch c???c v??o chi???n l?????c ???ph??ng b??? n?????c ????i??? (hedging) c???a Vi???t Nam ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c. V??? ph??a Washington, Vi???t Nam l?? m???t ?????i t??c c?? c??c t??i s???n chi???n l?????c gi?? tr??? trong khu v???c ????ng Nam ??, v?? s??? l?? m???t th??nh ph???n quan tr???ng trong chi???n l?????c t??i c??n b???ng c???a M???.

S??? m??? r???ng v?? ??a d???ng h??a c??c m???i quan h??? ?????i ngo???i trong n??m 2013 c???a H?? N???i c??ng c?? th??? ???????c xem nh?? l?? m???t h??nh th???c ngo???i giao ph??ng ng???a. H?? N???i ???? s??? r???ng tranh ch???p tr??n Bi???n ????ng s??? leo thang.

Kh???ng ho???ng gi??n khoan d???u H???i D????ng 981 (Haiyang Shiyou 981) ???? ch??? ra r???ng nh???ng n???i s??? n??y ???? c?? c?? s???.

C??c l???i ??ch l??nh th??? ti???p t???c th??ch th???c m???i quan h??? ???b???n t???t??? gi???a H?? N???i v?? B???c Kinh.

B???n nguy??n t???c ???l??ng gi???ng t???t, ?????ng ch?? t???t, b???n b?? t???t, ?????i t??c t???t???, v???n t???ng ???????c tuy??n b??? l?? n???n t???ng c???a quan h??? Vi???t -Trung, ??ang b??? l??m cho suy y???u do tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng ch??a c?? gi???i ph??p. Nhi???u n??? l???c ????? gi???i quy???t c??ng th???ng v???i Trung Qu???c ??? bao g???m c??? ?????i tho???i gi???a hai ?????ng c???ng s???n, ?????i tho???i gi???a c??c b??? tr?????ng qu???c ph??ng, m???t ???????ng d??y n??ng v??? c??c v???n ????? tr??n bi???n ??? ???? kh??ng hi???u qu???.

Th???m ch?? nguy??n t???c ???ba kh??ng??? c???a ch??nh s??ch qu???c ph??ng Vi???t Nam ??? kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???, kh??ng c?? c??n c??? qu??n s??? n?????c ngo??i tr??n l??nh th??? Vi???t Nam v?? kh??ng s??? d???ng quan h??? v???i qu???c gia n??y ????? ch???ng l???i qu???c gia kh??c ??? ???? gi??p Trung Qu???c c???m th???y d??? ch???u.

Trung Qu???c l?? m???t trong hai ?????i t??c chi???n l?????c to??n di???n c???a Vi???t Nam, c??ng v???i Nga. ??i???u n??y ???? mang l???i cho Vi???t Nam m???t c???m gi??c sai v??? an ninh t??? m???i quan h??? t??ch c???c v???i Trung Qu???c, c??ng nh?? nh???ng ???o t?????ng v??? s??? h??? tr??? c???a Nga. Moscow ???? kh??ng ?????ng c???nh Vi???t Nam trong cu???c kh???ng ho???ng H???i D????ng 981. Thay v??o ???? h??? ???? k?? k???t m???t th???a thu???n kh?? ?????t 30 n??m v???i B???c Kinh tr??? gi?? 400 t??? USD. Nhi???u ng?????i s??? th???y s??? ki???n n??y nh?? m???t s??? th???t b???i c???a h??? th???ng quan h??? ?????i t??c c???a Vi???t Nam. N???i dung m?? h??? v?? thi???u chi???u s??u c???a nh???ng m???i quan h??? ?????i t??c n??y l?? nh???ng nguy??n nh??n ?????u ti??n d???n t???i t??nh tr???ng n??y.

C??c l???i ??ch qu???c gia v??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? l?? nh???ng l?? do ch??nh tr??? l???i cho c??u h???i t???i sao c??c n?????c kh??c kh??ng mu???n g??y r???i ro cho m???i quan h??? c???a h??? v???i Trung Qu???c ch??? ????? ???ng h??? Vi???t Nam. Ch??? nh???ng qu???c gia ??ang c??? g???ng ????? ?????i tr???ng l???i Trung Qu???c ho???c c?? quan h??? t????ng ?????i ngh??o n??n v???i Trung Qu???c m???i s???n s??ng h??? tr??? Vi???t Nam ??? c??? th??? l?? M???, Nh???t B???n v?? Philippines. Khi r?? so??t l???i c??c chi???n l?????c h???p t??c, H?? N???i n??n khai th??c c??c l???i ??ch chung. M??? n???i l??n nh?? l?? m???t ?????ng minh t??? nhi??n c???a Vi???t Nam trong ph????ng tr??nh n??y. Nh??ng Hoa K??? c??n d?? d???t trong vi???c th??c ?????y h??n n???a quan h??? v???i Vi???t Nam ??? th??nh t??ch nh??n quy???n h???n ch??? c???a H?? N???i l?? m???t ngu???n g???c c???a s??? d?? d???t ????. D?? chuy???n ?????i ch??nh tr??? n???i b??? l?? c???n thi???t cho m???t s??? h???p t??c ch???t ch??? h??n v???i M???, nh??ng ??i???u n??y s??? kh??ng th??? ???????c ti???n h??nh m???t c??ch d??? d??ng hay nhanh ch??ng.

?????i v???i Nh???t B???n, Vi???t Nam c?? m???t vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong vi???c n?????c n??y x??t l???i v?? s???a ?????i Hi???n ph??p v??? quy???n ph??ng v??? t???p th??? c??ng nh?? ?????i tr???ng v???i Trung Qu???c. Tranh ch???p gi???a Nh???t B???n v?? Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i qu???n ?????o Senkaku/??i???u Ng?? l??m cho Tokyo th??m th???n tr???ng ?????i v???i B???c Kinh.

Philippines c??ng mu???n ph??t tri???n quan h??? g???n g??i h??n v???i H?? N???i do l???i ??ch chung trong khu v???c Bi???n ????ng. Philippines l?? ng?????i ti??n phong ph??t ?????ng v??? ki???n ch???ng l???i c??c h??nh ?????ng ????n ph????ng c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n bi???n.

Trong khi ????, B???c Kinh ???? c???nh b??o n???u Vi???t Nam ti???p t???c leo thang ph???n ?????i v???n ????? gi??n khoan H???i D????ng 981 th?? s??? c?? nh???ng h??? l???y v??? kinh t??? di???n ra. Trung Qu???c ???? cho h???i h????ng c??ng nh??n t??? Vi???t Nam, ????ng b??ng c??c kho???n ?????u t?? v?? th???m ch?? c??n ng??n c??c c??ng ty tham gia ?????u th???u c??c d??? ??n t???i Vi???t Nam.

Tr?????c khi x???y ra s??? ki???n H???i D????ng 981, Vi???t Nam cho r???ng h??? c?? th??? c??n b???ng quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c v?? M???. V?? d???, Vi???t Nam mu???n tham gia v??o c??c s??ng ki???n ??????kinh t??? khu v???c do c??? M??? v?? Trung Qu???c l??nh ?????o, c??? th??? l?? TPP v?? s??ng ki???n ?????i t??c Kinh t??? To??n di???n Khu v???c (RCEP).

Nh??ng n???u kh??ng kh??o x??? l?? cu???c kh???ng ho???ng hi???n nay tr??n Bi???n ????ng, Vi???t Nam c?? th??? l??m v??o th??? k???t. Vi???t Nam s??? kh?? c?? ???????c quan h??? g???n g??i h??n v???i M??? (do c??c c??n nh???c ch??nh tr??? trong n?????c v?? s??? ???ng h??? h???n ch??? ??? Washington) b???t ch???p t??nh h??nh x???u ??i trong quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c. ????? tr??nh k???ch b???n n??y, Vi???t Nam c???n ph???i nhanh ch??ng ??i???u ch???nh ch??nh s??ch theo t??nh h??nh m???i nh???t, c??? th??? l?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng c??n c?? ?? ?????nh tu??n th??? nguy??n t???c ???4 t???t???. Tuy nhi??n, vi???c ?????nh h?????ng l???i chi???n l?????c ngo???i giao, qu???c ph??ng v?? kinh t??? ph???i b???t ?????u v???i m???t s??? ?????ng thu???n ?????t ???????c trong n???i b??? l??nh ?????o ?????t n?????c.

N???u s??? thi???u quy???t ??o??n c???a l??nh ?????o v???n ti???p t???c, Vi???t Nam s??? r??i v??o t??nh hu???ng ng??y c??ng c?? ??t l???a ch???n ??? v?? nh?? th???,  m???t l???n n???a, Vi???t Nam l???i r??i v??o tr???ng th??i c?? l???p t????ng ?????i.

TS. L?? Thu H?????ng l?? nghi??n c???u vi??n t???i Vi???n Nghi??n c???u ????ng Nam ?? (ISEAS), Singapore. M???t b???n ti???ng Anh c???a b??i vi???t ???? ???????c ????ng t???i tr??n East Asia Forum.
 

H???u qu??? ch??nh tr??? c???a kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh

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Newspaper headlines - finanical crisis on 2008

Ngu???n: Howard Davies, ???The Political Consequences of Financial Crises???, Project Syndicate, 22/12/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

C?? l??? t??i kh??ng ph???i l?? v??? gi??o s?? t??i ch??nh duy nh???t m?? khi ra ????? t??i ti???u lu???n cho sinh vi??n c???a m??nh ???? ch???n c??u h???i nh?? th??? n??y: ???Theo quan ??i???m c???a anh/ch???, nguy??n nh??n ch??? y???u c???a kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh to??n c???u l?? do ch??nh ph??? can thi???p qu?? nhi???u v??o th??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh, hay b???i h??? ???? can thi???p qu?? ??t???? V?? khi gi???i quy???t ???c??u h???i??? n??y, sinh vi??n trong l???p m?? t??i d???y g???n ????y nh???t ???? chia th??nh ba lu???ng ?? ki???n.

Kho???ng m???t ph???n ba s??? sinh vi??n, nh???ng ng?????i b??? m?? ho???c b???i s??? h???p d???n h??o nho??ng c???a Gi??? thuy???t Th??? tr?????ng Hi???u qu??? (Efficient Market Hypothesis), l???p lu???n r???ng ch??nh ph??? l?? nguy??n nh??n c???a m???i t???i l???i. Nh???ng can thi???p thi???u suy ngh?? c???a h??? ??? ?????c bi???t l?? c??c h??ng kinh doanh c??c kho???n cho vay th??? ch???p ???????c ch??nh ph??? M??? h???u thu???n l?? Fannie Mae v?? Freddie Mac, c??ng nh?? ?????o lu???t T??i ?????u t?? C???ng ?????ng (Community Reinvestment Act) ??? ???? l??m c??c ?????ng c?? th??? tr?????ng b??? b??p m??o. M???t s??? th???m ch?? ch???p nh???n l???p lu???n c???a nh?? t?? t?????ng t??? do M??? Ron Paul, l??n ??n s??? t???n t???i c???a C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang (Fed) trong vai tr?? ng?????i cho vay cu???i c??ng.

M???t ph???n ba s??? sinh vi??n kh??c, nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ph??a b??n kia c???a ph??? t?? t?????ng ch??nh tr???, l???i cho r???ng c???u Ch??? t???ch Fed Alan Greenspan l?? t???i ?????. Greenspan ???? mi???n c?????ng can thi???p v??o th??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh, th???m ch?? khi ????n b???y t??i ch??nh ??ang gia t??ng ????ng k??? v?? gi?? t??i s???n d?????ng nh?? ???? kh??ng c??n ????ng v???i th???c t???, ??i???u ???? g??y ra r???c r???i. N??i r???ng h??n, c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y, v???i c??ch ti???p c???n qu?? nh??? nh??ng ?????i v???i ??i???u ti???t, ???? khi???n th??? tr?????ng ph??t tri???n ra ngo??i v??ng ki???m so??t trong nh???ng n??m ?????u c???a th??? k??? n??y.

Nh??m sinh vi??n c??n l???i th?? ch???n c??? hai, cho r???ng ch??nh ph??? ???? can thi???p qu?? nhi???u trong m???t s??? l??nh v???c, nh??ng l???i qu?? ??t ??? c??c l??nh v???c kh??c. L??ng tr??nh c??u h???i g???c ????? ??i theo h?????ng trung dung nh?? v???y kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t chi???n thu???t l??m b??i ki???m tra t???t, tuy nhi??n c??c sinh vi??n c??ng c?? l?? do c???a h???.

Gi??? ???? l?? b???y n??m sau kh???ng ho???ng, c??c ch??nh ph??? v?? c??? tri ??? ch??u ??u v?? B???c M??? ???? tr??? l???i c??u h???i quan tr???ng n??y nh?? th??? n??o? H??nh ?????ng c???a h??? cho th???y r???ng h??? ngh?? c???n ph???i ki???m so??t ch???t ch??? c??c th??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh hay tr??i l???i, nh?? n?????c n??n b??c b??? c??c k??? ho???ch gi???i c???u v?? ????? c??c c??ng ty t??i ch??nh t??? gi???i quy???t h???u qu??? do nh???ng sai l???m c???a ch??nh m??nh?

Qua lu???n ??i???u v?? c??c ch??nh s??ch ??i???u ti???t c???a h???, c?? th??? th???y r???ng h???u h???t c??c ch??nh ph??? ???? l???a ch???n ph????ng ??n th??? ba ??? trung dung. V??ng, h??? th???c hi???n m???t lo???t c??c bi???n ph??p ki???m so??t chi ti???t, r?? so??t s??? s??ch c???a c??c ng??n h??ng v???i c?????ng ????? ch??a t???ng c??, ?????ng th???i ki???m so??t vi???c ph??n ph???i ti???n m???t, vi???c b??? nhi???m c??c gi??m ?????c ch??? ch???t, v?? th???m ch?? c??n ki???m duy???t c??? b???ng m?? t??? c??ng vi???c c???a c??c th??nh vi??n h???i ?????ng qu???n tr???.

Nh??ng h??? ???? lo???i tr??? b???t k??? s??? h??? tr??? n??o trong t????ng lai t??? ch??nh ph??? ho???c ng??n h??ng trung ????ng d??nh cho c??c th??? ch??? t??i ch??nh ???m y???u. C??c ng??n h??ng gi??? ph???i xu???t tr??nh ???di ch??c s???ng??? cho th???y h??? s??? ???ch???t d???n??? m?? kh??ng c?? s??? h??? tr??? c???a ch??nh quy???n nh?? th??? n??o. Ch??nh ph??? s??? r?? b??? tr??ch nhi???m n???u nh???ng ng??n h??ng n??y g???p r???c r???i: gi??? th?? th???i ?????i ???qu?? l???n ????? s???p ???????? (too big to fail) ???? k???t th??c.

C?? l??? c??ch ti???p c???n n?????c ????i n??y l?? kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i, d?? n???u bi???t ???????c ??i???m k???t th??c mong mu???n l?? g?? c??ng l?? ??i???u t???t. Li???u n?? l?? m???t h??? th???ng n??i k??? lu???t th??? tr?????ng m???t l???n n???a th???ng tr???, hay l?? c??c nh?? qu???n l?? s??? ti???p t???c n???m quy???n ??i???u ch???nh trong t????ng lai g???n?

V???y c??n k???t lu???n c???a c??c c??? tri th?? sao? Trong l??n s??ng b???u c??? ?????u ti??n h???u kh???ng ho???ng, th??ng ??i???p ????a ra l?? r???t r?? r??ng theo ngh??a n??y, nh??ng l???i m?? h??? theo ngh??a kh??c. D?? ch??nh ph??? n??o n???m quy???n khi x???y ra kh???ng ho???ng, c??nh h???u hay c??nh t???, th?? h??? c??ng ???? b??? thay th??? b???i m???t ch??nh ph??? kh??c theo khuynh h?????ng ch??nh tr??? ?????i l???p.

??i???u n??y kh??ng th???c s??? ????ng ??? m???i n??i ??? ch???ng h???n nh?? t???i ?????c v???i tr?????ng h???p Angela Merkel ??? nh??ng ch???c ch???n n?? l?? s??? th???t ??? M???, Anh, Ph??p, v?? nhi???u n??i kh??c. Ph??p chuy???n t??? c??nh h???u sang c??nh t???, c??n Anh th?? ng?????c l???i. D?? v???y th?? d?? lu???n c??? tri v??? ch??nh ph??? c???a h??? v???n ??t nhi???u gi???ng h???t nhau: anh m???c sai l???m trong nhi???m k??? c???a m??nh, v???y n??n anh ph???i ra ??i.

Nh??ng b??y gi??? ch??ng ta c?? th??? th???y m???t xu h?????ng ph??t tri???n nh???t qu??n h??n. Ba nh?? kinh t??? ng?????i ?????c, Manuel Funke, Moritz Schularik, v?? Christoph Trebesch, v???a c??ng b??? m???t ????nh gi?? r???t hay d???a tr??n h??n 800 cu???c b???u c??? ??? c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y trong su???t 150 n??m qua, ?????ng th???i g???n nh???ng k???t qu??? n??y v???i 100 cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh. H??? ????a ra k???t lu???n ch??nh r?? r??ng: ???Ch??nh tr??? thay ?????i m???nh sang ph??a c??nh h???u sau m???i cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh. T??nh trung b??nh, s??? phi???u ???ng h??? phe c???c h???u t??ng kho???ng m???t ph???n ba trong v??ng 5 n??m sau m???i cu???c kh???ng ho???ng h??? th???ng ng??n h??ng.???

Cu???c ?????i kh???ng ho???ng nh???ng n??m 1930, theo sau s??? s???p ????? c???a ph??? Wall n??m 1929, ch??nh l?? v?? d??? r?? r??ng v?? ????ng lo ng???i nh???t, nh??ng xu h?????ng n??y c??ng c?? th??? ???????c quan s??t th???y c??? t???i c??c n?????c B???c ??u sau c??c ?????t kh???ng ho???ng ng??n h??ng ?????u nh???ng n??m 1990. V?? v???y, n???u gi???i th??ch s??? n???i l??n c???a M???t tr???n Qu???c gia Ph??p l?? b???i c?? nh??n v?? ch??nh s??ch ch??nh tr??? c???a T???ng th???ng Fran??ois Hollande kh??ng h???p l??ng d??n l?? kh??ng h???p l??. V???n c??n c??c nguy??n nh??n l???n h??n ?????i t?? r???c r???i v?? vi???c thi???u kh??? n??ng k???t n???i v???i c??c c??? tri c???a ??ng ta.

K???t lu???n ch??nh th??? hai m?? Funke, Schularik, v?? Trebesch r??t ra l?? c??ng vi???c qu???n l?? c???a ch??nh ph??? tr??? n??n kh?? kh??n h??n sau kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh, v?? hai l?? do. S??? tr???i d???y c???a phe c???c h???u n???m trong b???i c???nh ch??nh tr??? th?????ng b??? ph??n m???nh, v???i nhi???u ?????ng ph??i h??n, v?? s??? phi???u d??nh cho ?????ng c???m quy???n b??? th???p h??n, d?? l?? h??? thu???c phe h???u hay phe t???. V?? v???y, vi???c ????a ra c??c quy???t ?????nh l???p ph??p quan tr???ng s??? tr??? n??n kh?? kh??n h??n.

?????ng th???i, c??c phong tr??o v???n ?????ng b??n ngo??i ngh??? tr?????ng c??ng t??ng ?????t bi???n: ????nh c??ng v?? bi???u t??nh l???n h??n v?? k??o d??i h??n. Ch??nh ph??? c??ng kh??ng c??n ????? kh??? n??ng ki???m so??t an ninh ???????ng ph??? nh?? tr?????c. T??nh trung b??nh th?? c??c cu???c bi???u t??nh ch???ng ch??nh ph??? t??ng g???p ba, t???n s??? b???o lo???n t??ng g???p ????i, v?? c??c cu???c ????nh c??ng n??i chung t??ng ??t nh???t m???t ph???n ba. Nh???ng con s??? n??y ?????c bi???t t??ng m???nh t???i Hy L???p trong th???i gian g???n ????y.

K???t lu???n mang t??nh an ???i duy nh???t m?? ba nh?? kinh t??? ?????t ???????c ???? l?? nh???ng t??c ?????ng n??y s??? d???n bi???n m???t. D??? li???u cho th???y r???ng sau 5 n??m, ??i???u t???i t??? nh???t s??? qua. Nh??ng ??i???u ???? h??nh nh?? kh??ng ph???i l?? nh???ng g?? ??ang di???n ra t???i ch??u ??u, n???u x??t ?????n cu???c b???u c??? g???n ????y c???a Ph??p, ch??a k??? ??? Ph???n Lan v?? Ba Lan, n??i c??nh h???u hi???n n???m quy???n. C?? l??? l???i gi???i th??ch h???p l?? l?? 5 n??m ??? ????y ???????c t??nh t??? khi cu???c kh???ng ho???ng ho??n to??n ch???m d???t, m?? ??? ch??u ??u th?? ch??a ph???i v???y.

V?? v???y ch??nh tr??? d?????ng nh?? v???n c??n l?? m???t ngh??? kh?? kh??n trong m???t th???i gian d??i n???a. C??n c??c ng??n h??ng v?? t??? ch???c t??i ch??nh, nh???ng k??? b??? ????? l???i v?? g??y ra kh???ng ho???ng, s??? v???n ti???p t???c b??? coi l?? t???i ????? th??m m???t th???i gian n???a cho ?????n khi k??? v???ng c???a c??? tri v??? s??? ???n ?????nh kinh t??? v?? t??i ch??nh ???????c ????p ???ng m???t c??ch b???n v???ng h??n.

Howard Davies, Ch??? t???ch ?????u ti??n c???a C?? quan D???ch v??? T??i ch??nh V????ng qu???c Anh (1997-2003), l?? Ch??? t???ch Ng??n h??ng Ho??ng gia Scotland. ??ng t???ng l?? Hi???u tr?????ng Tr?????ng Kinh t??? London (2003-2011) v?? gi??? ch???c Ph?? Th???ng ?????c Ng??n h??ng Anh v?? T???ng Gi??m ?????c Li??n ??o??n C??ng nghi???p Anh.

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2015 ??? The Political Consequences of Financial Crises

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