Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 15/08/2019

Thứ năm - 15/08/2019 00:12
???????ng cong l???i t???c tr??i phi???u kho b???c M??? l???n ?????u ti??n ?????o ng?????c k??? t??? n??m 2007: l???i t???c c???a c??c tr??i phi???u c?? k??? h???n m?????i n??m gi???m xu???ng d?????i m???c l???i t???c c???a tr??i phi???u k?? h???n hai n??m. S??? ?????o ng?????c c???a l???i t???c d??i h???n v?? ng???n h???n l?? d???u hi???u c???a m???i cu???c suy tho??i trong n???a th??? k??? qua. Ch??? t???ng c?? m???t l???n ???????ng cong ?????o chi???u m?? kh??ng c?? suy tho??i theo sau. ?????ng th???i, ???????ng cong l???i t???c c??ng ?????o ng?????c ??? Anh.
Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 15/08/2019

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 15/08/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

TIN V???N H??M QUA

 ???????ng cong l???i t???c tr??i phi???u kho b???c M??? l???n ?????u ti??n ?????o ng?????c k??? t??? n??m 2007: l???i t???c c???a c??c tr??i phi???u c?? k??? h???n m?????i n??m gi???m xu???ng d?????i m???c l???i t???c c???a tr??i phi???u k?? h???n hai n??m. S??? ?????o ng?????c c???a l???i t???c d??i h???n v?? ng???n h???n l?? d???u hi???u c???a m???i cu???c suy tho??i trong n???a th??? k??? qua. Ch??? t???ng c?? m???t l???n ???????ng cong ?????o chi???u m?? kh??ng c?? suy tho??i theo sau. ?????ng th???i, ???????ng cong l???i t???c c??ng ?????o ng?????c ??? Anh.

V??o th??ng 7, t??ng tr?????ng s???n l?????ng c??ng nghi???p ??? Trung Qu???c gi???m xu???ng m???c th???p nh???t trong 17 n??m qua, c??n doanh s??? b??n l??? t??ng trong th??ng n??y v???i t???c ????? ch???m nh???t k??? t??? th??ng 4. D??? li???u th??ng tr?????c cho th???y n???n kinh t??? t??ng tr?????ng ch??? ??? m???c 6,2% trong Qu?? II so v???i c??ng k??? n??m ngo??i, t???c ????? ch???m nh???t trong g???n ba th???p k??? qua.

C??ng ty We Company ???? n???p ????n xin ni??m y???t c??? phi???u c???a m??nh tr??n S??n Giao d???ch Ch???ng kho??n New York. ???????c bi???t ?????n nh?? l?? c??ng ty m??? c???a WeWork- h??ng cho thu?? kh??ng gian l??m vi???c chung  ??? We Company k?? v???ng s??? huy ?????ng ???????c ??t nh???t 3 t??? ???? la v???n b??? sung. Song m???t s??? nh?? ?????u t?? ??ang b??y t??? ho??i nghi. N??m ngo??i, c??ng ty ???? l??? 2 t??? ???? la v???i doanh thu 1,8 t??? ???? la.

B?? Nancy Pelosi, Ch??? t???ch H??? vi???n M???, cho bi???t s??? kh??ng c?? c?? h???i n??o cho m???t th???a thu???n th????ng m???i M???-Anh ???????c th??ng qua ??? Qu???c h???i n???u m???t Brexit ???kh??ng th???a thu???n??? l??m t???n h???i ?????n Th???a thu???n ng??y Th??? S??u T???t l??nh v???n ???? ch???m d???t c??c v??? r???c r???i ??? B???c Ireland. V???i m???t Brexit di???n ra m?? kh??ng c?? th???a thu???n v??o ng??y 31 th??ng 10, m???t bi??n gi???i c???ng c?? th??? xu???t hi???n tr??? l???i gi???a B???c Ireland v?? C???ng h??a Ireland.

Th?????ng vi???n ?? ???? ho??n l???i cho ?????n tu???n sau m???t cu???c b??? phi???u b???t t??n nhi???m ???????c ????? xu???t b???i Matteo Salvini, l??nh ?????o c???a Li??n minh ph????ng B???c h???u khuynh, m???t trong hai ?????ng trong ch??nh ph???. ??ng Salvini ???? l???i d???ng m???t cu???c tranh c??i v??? d??? ??n t??u cao t???c ????? b??? r??i ?????i t??c c???a Li??n Minh, Phong tr??o N??m sao. ??ng ta d?????ng nh?? hy v???ng s??? t???n d???ng ???????c s??? ???ng h??? c???a ng?????i d??n d??nh cho ?????ng m??nh th??ng qua m???t cu???c b???u c??? s???m.

M???t ch??nh tr??? gia t??? Kashmir do ???n ????? ki???m so??t, v???n b???t b??nh v???i quy???t ?????nh g???n ????y c???a ch??nh quy???n trung ????ng h???y b??? quy ch??? ti???u bang v?? t??nh tr???ng ?????c bi???t c???a Jammu & Kashmir, ???? b??? b???t t???i s??n bay Delhi, khi ??ng d?????ng nh?? ??ang tr??n ???????ng ?????n Th??? Nh?? K???. Shah Faesal t???ng n??i r???ng ch??nh ph??? ???? ???gi???t ch???t hi???n ph??p gi???a thanh thi??n b???ch nh???t???. ??ng ???????c cho l?? ???? tr??? v??? Kashmir v?? b??? qu???n th??c t???i gia.

Hai qu???ng c??o ??? Anh ???? tr??? th??nh nh???ng qu???ng c??o ?????u ti??n b??? c???m theo lu???t c???m ?????nh ki???n gi???i t??nh trong qu???ng c??o. M???t trong s??? ???? l?? v??? pho m??t kem Philadelphia, mi??u t??? hai ng?????i cha, b??? ph??n t??m b???i th???c ??n, ???? b??? qu??n c??c em b?? c???a h??? tr??n m???t b??ng chuy???n. Qu???ng c??o c??n l???i l?? v??? m???t chi???c xe h??i c???a Volkswagen, trong ???? m???t nh??m ????n ??ng ??ang th???c hi???n nh???ng tr?? m???o hi???m kh??c nhau tr?????c khi chi???c xe l?????t qua m???t ng?????i ph??? n??? tr??ng bu???n ch??n khi ?????y m???t chi???c xe n??i tr??? em.

TI??U ??I???M H??M NAY

Ng??y Gi???i ph??ng B??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n

H??m nay H??n Qu???c k??? ni???m Ng??y Gi???i ph??ng, s??? ki???n ????nh d???u k???t th??c ch??? ????? th???c d??n c???a ????? qu???c Nh???t B???n tr??n b??n ?????o n??y . ??? H??n Qu???c, c?? th??? s??? c?? nhi???u ng?????i h??n b??nh th?????ng xu???ng ???????ng mang theo nh???ng bi???u t?????ng b??i Nh???t. Hai qu???c gia n??y b??? m???c k???t trong m???t cu???c tranh c??i v??? s??? b??c l???t c???a Nh???t B???n trong th???i chi???n, ??i???u sau ???? tr??? th??nh m???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i. H??n Qu???c c??n leo thang h??n n???a trong tu???n n??y b???ng c??ch b???t ?????u m???t qu?? tr??nh lo???i Nh???t B???n kh???i danh s??ch c??c ?????i t??c th????ng m???i ??u ti??n. T???ng th???ng Moon Jae-in ???? ch??? tr??ch ????n tr??? ????a ???kh??ng ch??nh ????ng??? c???a Nh???t B???n.

Trong khi ????, T???ng th???ng Donald Trump k??u g???i hai n?????c ???c??ng l??m h??a??? m?? kh??ng ????a ra ????? ngh??? gi??p ?????. Tr??i l???i, ??ng d??nh th???i gian ????? ca ng???i Kim Jong Un, nh?? ?????c t??i B???c Tri???u Ti??n, v?? ???? vi???t cho ??ng th??m m???t ???b???c th?? tuy???t v???i??? kh??c. ?????i v???i s??? ki???n Ng??y Gi???i ph??ng, Tri???u Ti??n c?? th??? s??? t??? ch???c m???t cu???c m??t tinh ??? B??nh Nh?????ng, n???u kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t v??? th??? t??n l???a ??n m???ng (m?? n???u c?? s??? l?? l???n th??? s??u trong ba tu???n qua). Khi nh???ng ng?????i h??ng x??m c???a m??nh ??ang c??i nhau, ??ng Kim c?? th??? c?????i kh???y khi xem duy???t l???i c??c l??? h???i c???a n?????c m??nh.

Gi??m ?????c T??nh b??o Qu???c gia M???

H??m nay, Dan Coats s??? t??? ch???c Gi??m ?????c T??nh b??o Qu???c gia m?? kh??ng c?? nh??n v???t thay th??? ???n ?????nh n??o tr?????c m???t. Ch???c v??? h??ng ?????u trong c???ng ?????ng t??nh b??o M??? ???????c t???o ra sau c??c cu???c t???n c??ng kh???ng b??? v??o ng??y 11 th??ng 9 n??m 2001. V??? tr?? n??y c?? nhi???m v??? b??o c??o t??m t???t cho t???ng th???ng v?? ch???u tr??ch nhi???m ??i???u ph???i 17 c?? quan t??nh b??o, c??? qu??n s??? l???n d??n s???. S??? l???a ch???n t??? nhi??n, Ph?? gi??m ?????c Sue Gordon, ???? kh??ng ???????c T???ng th???ng Trump th??ng qua m???c d?? c?? nhi???u th???p k??? kinh nghi???m c??ng nh?? s??? ???ng h??? t??? l?????ng ?????ng.

??i???u n??y c?? th??? l?? b???i b?? ???????c cho l?? kh??ng ????? ???c???ng hi???n??? cho th??? gi???i quan c???a ??ng Trump; con trai c???a T???ng th???ng t???ng tweet r???ng b?? l?? ???b???n t???t??? c???a Gi??m ?????c CIA th???i Barack Obama, m???t ng?????i t???ng ph??? b??ng Trump. B?? Gordon ???? t??? ch???c tu???n tr?????c, v?? t???ng th???ng ????? c??? John Ratcliffe, m???t ngh??? s?? c?? ??t kinh nghi???m c??? th??? v???i ng??nh t??nh b??o. ??i???m c???ng ch??nh c???a Ratcliffe d?????ng nh?? l?? vi???c ??ng chia s??? s??? ph???n n??? c???a T???ng th???ng ?????i v???i cu???c ??i???u tra c???a Robert Mueller v??? m???i li??n h??? gi???a s??? can thi???p b???u c??? c???a Nga v?? chi???n d???ch tranh c??? c???a Trump. ??ng n??y b??? bu???c ph???i r??t lui sau nh???ng ti???t l??? cho th???y ??ng ???? ph??ng ?????i th??nh t??ch c???a m??nh trong vi???c truy t??? nh???ng k??? kh???ng b???.

Tham nh??ng ??? Mexico

Khi c??c nh?? b??o ????a ra c??c b???ng ch???ng cho th???y h??n 5 t??? peso (t????ng ??????ng 254 tri???u ???? la) ???? b??? m???t t??ch t??? c??c kho b???c c???a ch??nh ph??? d?????i th???i Rosario Robles, b?? n??y kh??ng h??? t??? ch???c. C???u B??? tr?????ng Ph??t tri???n N??ng nghi???p ???? tr??? th??nh bi???u t?????ng c???a c??c c??o bu???c tham nh??ng trong nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng c???a Enrique Pe??a Nieto. S??? t??? do c???a b?? c??ng l??m n???i b???t m???t ?????c tr??ng c???a ng?????i k??? v??? theo xu h?????ng d??n t??y c???a ??ng Pe??a, ??ng Andr??s Manuel L??pez Obrador, ng?????i d?????ng nh?? quy???t t??m lo???i b??? tham nh??ng song l???i kh??ng mu???n xem x??t l???i c??c v??? ??n c??, th???m ch?? c??n g???i b?? Robles ch??? l?? ???con d?? t??? th???n???.

Nh??ng ??i???u n??y ???? thay ?????i v??o th??? Ba khi nh?? ch???c tr??ch b???t gi??? b?? Robles ch??? x??t x???. B?? ph??? nh???n vi???c l??m sai tr??i. ????y c?? th??? l?? v??? ??i???u tra tham nh??ng l???n ?????u ti??n d?????i th???i ??ng L??pez Obrador, song n?? c?? th??? ch??? l?? kh???i ?????u. B?? Robles n??i r???ng b?? ???? b??o c??o c??c v???n ????? b???t th?????ng cho ??ng Pe??a v?? ??ng Jose Antonio Meade, B??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh, ng?????i ???? tr??? th??nh m???t trong nh???ng ?????i th??? ch??nh c???a ??ng L??pez Obrador trong cu???c b???u c??? t???ng th???ng v??o n??m ngo??i. C??c c??ng t??? vi??n c?? th??? y??u c???u c??? hai ng?????i n??y c?? m???t tr?????c t??a v?? gi???i th??ch v??? nh???ng g?? h??? bi???t v?? v??? th???i ??i???m c??? th???. ??i???u n??y th???c s??? s??? ????nh th???c nh???ng b??ng ma c??.

Walmart v?? Alibaba

?????ng nh??n v??o nh???ng ng?????i kh???ng l??? trong th??? gi???i b??n l??? ????? ??o l?????ng m???c ????? thi???t h???i th???c s??? c???a chi???n tranh th????ng m???i. Thu nh???p Qu?? II c???a h???, ???????c c??? hai c??ng ty c??ng b??? h??m nay, s??? cho th???y h??? kh?? mi???n nhi???m tr?????c chi???n tranh th????ng m???i. Walmart ???????c d??? b??o s??? ?????t doanh thu 130 t??? ???? la, t??ng 2%. Quy m?? kh???ng l??? c???a h???, v???i ph???m vi s???n ph???m l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i c??c c??ng ty M??? ??ang c??ng th???ng kh??c, ???? gi??p h??? tr??? v???ng tr?????c ??p l???c t??? th????ng chi???n; v?? vi???c T???ng th???ng Trump tuy??n b??? t???m ho??n ??p th??m thu??? c??ng gi??p gi???m nh??? m???t ph???n ??p l???c.

Trong khi ????, c??c d???ch v??? ??a d???ng c???a Alibaba mang ?????n cho h??? m???t s??? chi ph???i kh??ng th??? ch???i c??i ?????i v???i ng?????i ti??u d??ng Trung Qu???c; h??? cho th???y r???ng c??c s??n giao d???ch c???a h??? c?? ?????y h??ng h??a trong n?????c, tr??? th??nh s??? l???a ch???n thay th??? cho nh???ng h??ng nh???p kh???u b??? t??ng gi?? b???i thu??? quan. C??c nh?? ph??n t??ch d??? ??o??n h??? s??? b??o c??o doanh thu 16 t??? ???? la, t??ng 31% so v???i c??ng k??? n??m tr?????c. Tuy nhi??n, m???t c??ng ty l???n nh?? Alibaba c??ng ch??? l?? ng?????i ?????i di???n cho n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c trong m???t nhi???u nh?? ?????u t?? ??? v?? c??? phi???u c???a h??? ???? gi???m 16% k??? t??? th??ng 5.

S??? chuy???n h??a c???a BMW

V??? th??? c???a BMW nh?? m???t ??i???n h??nh v??? s??? v?????t tr???i c???a k??? thu???t ?????c ???? chuy???n h??a trong nhi???u n??m th??nh l???i nhu???n t??i ch??nh kh???ng l???. Nh??ng m???t lo???t c??c c???nh b??o v??? l???i nhu???n v?? gi?? c??? phi???u gi???m ???? khi???n Harald Kr??ger, CEO c???a c??ng ty, ngh??? vi???c tr?????c khi b??? ??p. ??ng ???? tuy??n b??? v??o th??ng B???y r???ng ??ng s??? kh??ng t??m ki???m m???t nhi???m k??? th??? hai, v?? s??? t??? ch???c v??o h??m nay. Oliver Zipse, ng?????i ?????ng ?????u b??? ph???n s???n xu???t ?? t??, s??? l??n thay th???.

??ng n??y s??? ph???i v???t l???n kh??ng ch??? v???i c??c b???t h??a th????ng m???i, doanh s??? b??n h??ng s???t gi???m ??? Trung Qu???c, c??c kho???n ?????u t?? t???n k??m nh???m ?????i ph?? v???i c??c quy t???c ph??t th???i ch???t ch??? h??n, v?? c??? nh???ng v???n ????? nh?? ph??t tri???n xe ??i???n v?? xe t??? l??i, hay cung c???p c??c d???ch v??? s??? thay th??? cho vi???c ng?????i ti??u d??ng s??? h???u xe ri??ng trong nh???ng n??m t???i. Nhi???m v??? n???n t???ng c???a t???t c??? nh???ng ??i???u n??y l?? kh??i ph???c danh ti???ng c???a BMW v??? s??ng t???o ?????i m???i. ??i???u n??y s??? r???t kh?? kh??n, khi m?? k??? thu???t c?? kh?? ti??n ti???n v???n gi??p c??ng ty ?????ng v???ng trong h??n 100 n??m qua s??? tr??? n??n k??m quan tr???ng h??n so v???i c??c ph???n m???m hi???n ?????i.
 

V??? Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng c???a M??? t???i Nam Vi???t Nam

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Ngu???n: Edward Miller, ???Behind the Phoenix Program???, The New York Times, 29/12/2017.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

V??o cu???i th??ng 12/1967, Ch??nh ph??? Nam Vi???t Nam tuy??n b??? t??i t??? ch???c n??? l???c chi???n tranh c???a m??nh nh???m ch???ng l???i phong tr??o n???i d???y c???a l???c l?????ng c???ng s???n. C?? hi???u l???c ngay l???p t???c, t???t c??? c??c ho???t ?????ng ch???ng n???i d???y c???a Nam Vi???t Nam ?????u tr??? th??nh m???t ph???n c???a m???t ch????ng tr??nh m???i ???????c g???i l?? Ph???ng Ho??ng, t??n c???a m???t lo??i chim linh thi??ng g???n li???n v???i ho??ng gia v?? quy???n l???c trong truy???n th???ng v??n h??a Vi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c. ????p l???i ?????ng th??i c???a Nam Vi???t Nam, c??c quan ch???c Hoa K??? ??? Vi???t Nam b???t ?????u g???i c??c n??? l???c ph???i h???p ch???ng n???i d???y c???a h??? v???i t??n g???i Phoenix, t??n g???i g???n g??i nh???t trong v??n h??a ph????ng T??y v???i lo??i v???t huy???n tho???i n??y.

Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng s??? tr??? th??nh m???t trong nh???ng kh??a c???nh g??y tranh c??i nh???t trong cu???c chi???n c???a Hoa K??? t???i Vi???t Nam. ???????c b???o tr??? b???i C???c T??nh b??o Trung ????ng (CIA), Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng s??? d???ng c??c l???c l?????ng b??n qu??n s??? nh???m t???n c??ng c??c ?????c v??? c???ng s???n n???m v??ng t???i c??c th??n l??ng kh???p Nam Vi???t Nam. C??c nh??n ch???ng c??o bu???c r???ng c??c th??nh vi??n c???a ch????ng tr??nh c??ng c??c c??? v???n Hoa K??? c???a h??? th?????ng xuy??n ti???n h??nh tra t???n, s??t h???i v?? ??m s??t, nh???ng c??o bu???c m?? c??c quan ch???c M??? ???? b??c b???.

Cho t???i ng??y nay, cu???c tranh lu???n v??? Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng v???n t???p trung ch??? y???u v??o vai tr?? c???a CIA v?? c??c c?? nh??n ng?????i M??? trong ch????ng tr??nh n??y. Nh??ng ?????i b??? ph???n nh??n s??? c???a Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng, nh?? binh s??, th???m v???n vi??n v?? nh?? ph??n t??ch, ?????u l?? ng?????i Vi???t Nam. T??m hi???u vai tr?? c???a c??c nh??n s??? Vi???t Nam trong ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng mang l???i nh???ng g??c nh??n kh??c bi???t v??? ngu???n g???c v?? t???m quan tr???ng c???a ch????ng tr??nh n??y.

Trong t???t c??? nh???ng ng?????i Vi???t Nam ????ng g??p cho Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng, c?? l??? nh??n v???t nhi???u ???nh h?????ng nh???t l?? m???t s?? quan qu??n ?????i Nam Vi???t Nam t??n l?? Tr???n Ng???c Ch??u. L??c c??n tr???, ??ng Ch??u ???? ??i theo phong tr??o ?????c l???p Vi???t Minh v?? nh?? l??nh ?????o cu???n h??t c???a phong tr??o n??y l?? H??? Ch?? Minh. ??ng t??? ch???i gia nh???p ?????ng C???ng s???n c???a ??ng H??? v?? tr??? n??n kh?? ch???u v???i vi???c Vi???t Minh ng??y c??ng nh???n m???nh ?????u tranh giai c???p. N??m 1950, ??ng ????o ng?? sang ph??a ch??nh ph??? ch???ng c???ng do Ph??p h???u thu???n.

??ng Ch??u cu???i c??ng ???? thu h??t ???????c s??? ch?? ?? c???a T???ng th???ng Ng?? ????nh Di???m, ng?????i giao cho ??ng l??m v??? chi???n l?????c v?? chi???n thu???t ch???ng n???i d???y. N??m 1962, ??ng Di???m b??? nhi???m ??ng Ch??u l??m t???nh tr?????ng Ki???n H??a (B???n Tre ng??y nay ??? ND), m???t t???nh l???n thu???c ?????ng b???ng s??ng C???u Long. ??ng Ch??u d??nh ph???n l???n trong kho???ng th???i gian 3 n??m ??? Ki???n H??a ????? th??? nghi???m c??c ph????ng ph??p ch???ng n???i d???y kh??c nhau.

??ng Ch??u nhanh ch??ng nh???n th???y ch??nh ph??? ?????i m???t v???i m???t s??? v???n ????? li??n quan t???i nhau ??? Ki???n H??a. T???nh n??y ???????c coi l?? ???chi???c n??i c???a c??ch m???ng??? b???i v?? c??c c??n b??? C???ng s???n ???? t??? ch???c m???t trong nh???ng cu???c n???i d???y ?????a ph????ng ?????u ti??n ch???ng l???i Di???m t???i m???t trong nh???ng huy???n c???a t???nh n??y v??o n??m 1960. H??n n???a, ??ng Ch??u sau n??y h???i t?????ng l???i r???ng h??? th???ng t??nh b??o c???a ch??nh ph??? ???nh?? m???t tr?? ????a??? b???i v?? n?? ph??? thu???c v??o nh???ng ng?????i cung c???p tin ???? l??m cho nh?? n?????c trong nhi???u n??m v?? th?????ng ???????c cung c???p tin gi??? b???i k??? th??. Do ????, c??c l???c l?????ng ch??nh ph??? t???i Ki???n H??a th?????ng kh??ng bi???t nh???ng ng?????i n???i d???y l?? ai v?? h??? ??ang ho???t ?????ng t???i ????u. Thay v?? ti???n h??nh c??c chi???n d???ch c?? m???c ti??u ch???n l???c d???a tr??n c??c th??ng tin t??nh b??o ch??nh x??c, c??c ch??? huy th?????ng s??? d???ng c??c chi???n d???ch h???a l???c m???nh l??m ch???t ho???c b??? th????ng ng?????i d??n ?????a ph????ng. D??n l??ng c??ng tr??? n??n t???c gi???n h??n b???i c??c quan ch???c v?? s?? quan c???nh s??t ?????a ph????ng, nhi???u ng?????i trong s??? ???? r???t b???t t??i, tham nh??ng, ho???c c??? hai.

????? kh???c ph???c nh???ng v???n ????? n??y, ??ng Ch??u ???? thi???t k??? n??n ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra d??n s??? k???t h???p kh???o s??t ?? ki???n v??? c??c b???t b??nh c???a ng?????i d??n (Census ??? Grievance ??? sau ????y g???i l?? Ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t). Th??ng qua s??ng ki???n n??y, c??c nh??m c??n b??? ???????c ph??i xu???ng c??c th??n l??ng do ch??nh ph??? ki???m so??t. Sau khi ti???n h??nh ??i???u tra d??n s???, c??c th??nh vi??n b???t ?????u ti???n h??nh h??ng ng??y c??c cu???c ph???ng v???n b???t bu???c ?????i v???i t???ng ng?????i l???n. C??c c??u h???i c?? v??? nh?? v?? th?????ng v?? ph???t, v?? d??? nh?? ??ng b?? c?? nh???n th???y ??i???u g?? b???t th?????ng g???n ????y kh??ng, hay ch??nh ph??? c?? th??? l??m g?? ????? gi??p ????? ??ng b?? v?? gia ????nh. C??c c??u h???i n??y m???t ph???n l?? nh???m t???o ??i???u ki???n cho ng?????i d??n n??u l??n nh???ng b???t b??nh v??? c??c quan ch???c ?????a ph????ng tham nh??ng, nh???ng ng?????i m?? ??ng Ch??u sau ???? c?? th??? k??? lu???t ho???c c??ch ch???c. Nh??ng m???c ti??u cu???i c??ng l?? nh???m thu th???p th??m c??c th??ng tin ch??nh x??c h??n v??? k??? th??.

S??ng t???o th??? hai c???a ??ng Ch??u l?? vi???c t???o ra c??i m?? ??ng g???i l?? c??c ?????i ch???ng Kh???ng b???, ti???n th??n c???a Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng. ???????c th??nh l???p v???i s??? h??? tr??? t??? CIA, c??c ?????i nh??m n??y bao g???m c??c nh??m nh??? nh??n vi??n ???????c hu???n luy???n ????? ti???n h??nh c??c chi???n d???ch b?? m???t trong c??c v??ng l??nh th??? do k??? th?? ki???m so??t. Khi ??ng Ch??u nh???n ???????c tin t???c t??nh b??o v??? nh??n d???ng v?? v??? tr?? c???a c??c ?????c v??? k??? th??, ??ng li???n c??? ?????i ch???ng Kh???ng b??? t???i gi???t ho???c b???t s???ng h???. Theo c??ch n??y, ??ng Ch??u v?? c??c ?????i t??c CIA hi v???ng c?? th??? l??m ti??u hao v?? ti??u di???t nh???ng g?? m?? sau n??y h??? g???i l?? c???u tr??c Vi???t c???ng, t???c m???ng l?????i c??c c??n b??? v?? ?????c v??? c???ng s???n n???m v??ng trong d??n c?? n??ng th??n.

??ng Ch??u nh???n th???c r???t r?? r???ng c??c ph????ng ph??p c???a m??nh r???t d??? b??? l???m d???ng. M???t ch??? doanh nghi???p b???t l????ng trong l??ng c?? th??? l???i d???ng ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t ????? thuy???t ph???c ch??nh ph??? r???ng ?????i th??? ?????a ph????ng c???a m??nh l?? m???t ng?????i c???ng s???n. V?? c??c th??nh vi??n c???a ?????i ch???ng Kh???ng b??? n???u kh??ng ???????c hu???n luy???n v?? gi??m s??t k??? l?????ng c?? th??? c???m th???y v?? h??nh ?????ng nh?? th??? h??? ???????c ph??p ti???n h??nh gi???t ng?????i. Nh???m ch???ng l???i nh???ng v???n ????? nh?? v???y, ??ng Ch??u ???? b??? nhi???m c??c thanh tra vi??n ????? ??i???u tra c??c b??o c??o v??? c??c sai ph???m c???a c??n b???, quan ch???c. ??ng c??ng tuy??n b??? r???ng vi???c s??? d???ng c??c l???c l?????ng s??t th??? s??? ch??? l?? ph????ng th???c cu???i c??ng, ch??? ???????c ??p d???ng sau khi c??c n??? l???c nh???m thuy???t ph???c c??c ?????c v??? c???a k??? th?? ????o ng?? sang phe Ch??nh ph??? th???t b???i.

M???c d?? ??ng Ch??u n??i ti???ng Anh v???i gi???ng n???ng nh??ng ??ng c?? th??? tr??nh b??y c??c ?? t?????ng c???a m??nh v??? ch???ng n???i d???y theo m???t ph????ng th???c ????n gi???n v?? d??? hi???u, khi???n cho ??ng tr??? n??n n???i ti???ng v???i c??c c??? v???n Hoa K???. Daniel Ellsberg, nh?? ph??n t??ch c???a C??ng ty RAND m?? sau n??y tr??? th??nh m???t nh?? ho???t ?????ng ph???n chi???n, ???? g???p ??ng Ch??u kho???ng gi???a nh???ng n??m 1960 v?? coi ??ng l?? chuy??n gia Vi???t Nam h??ng ?????u v??? quy tr??nh b??nh ?????nh h??a. ??ng Ch??u c??ng t????ng t??c v?? l??m vi???c v???i John Paul Vann, William Colby, Edward Lansdale v?? nh???ng nh??n v???t ti??u bi???u kh??c trong ?????i ng?? ch???ng n???i d???y c???a Hoa K???. Nh???ng ng?????i M??? n??y ?????c bi???t th??ch vi???c ??ng Ch??u kh???ng ?????nh r???ng c?? th??? ti???n h??nh ch???ng n???i d???y theo m???t ph????ng th???c nh??n v??n, c?? ?????o ?????c, v?? l??m gi???m c??c thi???t h???i kh??ng mong mu???n ?????i v???i sinh m???ng v?? t??i s???n c???a th?????ng d??n.

Nh??? m???t ph???n v??o s??? h??? tr??? c???a c??c b???n b?? Hoa K???, ??ng Ch??u ???? ???????c b??? nhi???m v??o cu???i n??m 1965 l??m l??nh ?????o m???t ch????ng tr??nh hu???n luy???n ch???ng n???i d???y m???i d??nh cho c??n b??? Nam Vi???t Nam. S??? ????? b???t c???a ??ng l?? m???t ph???n trong n??? l???c c???a CIA nh???m thi???t k??? m???t chi???n l?????c ch???ng n???i d???y tr??n c??? n?????c d??nh cho Nam Vi???t Nam, nh???ng n??? l???c m?? cu???i c??ng d???n t???i s??? h??nh th??nh Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng. Trong qu?? tr??nh thi???t k??? Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng, c??c quan ch???c CIA ???? ????a v??o c??c ?? t?????ng c???a ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra ??? Kh???o s??t nh???m thu th???p th??ng tin t??nh b??o t??? d??n l??ng. ???nh h?????ng c???a ??ng Ch??u c??ng r???t r?? r??ng trong b??? ph???n sau n??y tr??? th??nh ph???n g??y tranh c??i nh???t c???a Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng, ???? l?? c??c bi???t ?????i ch???ng kh???ng b??? tinh nhu??? ???????c g???i l?? c??c ????n v??? Th??m s??t T???nh (PRU). ???????c tuy???n m??? v?? hu???n luy???n b???i CIA, c??c ????n v??? n??y ti???n h??nh h??ng ch???c ngh??n v??? ???b???t v?? gi???t??? c??c ?????c v??? c???a k??? th?? t??? n??m 1968 t???i n??m 1972.

Tuy nhi??n, c?? ph???n b???t ng??? khi ??ng Ch??u kh??ng th???c s??? tham gia v??o vi???c thi???t k??? hay th???c hi???n Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng. V???i t?? c??ch l?? ng?????i ?????ng ?????u c???a ch????ng tr??nh ????o t???o c??n b??? qu???c gia Nam Vi???t Nam, ??ng s???m tr??? n??n th???t v???ng v???i t??nh tr???ng ?????u ???? ch??nh tr??? b???t t???n gi???a c??c l??nh ?????o c???p cao. N??m 1967, ??ng Ch??u r???i b??? v??? tr?? ch??nh th???c c???a m??nh v?? gi??nh ???????c m???t gh??? d??n bi???u trong Qu???c h???i Nam Vi???t Nam.

Sau ?????t T???ng ti???n c??ng T???t M???u Th??n 1968, ??ng Ch??u b???t ?????u k??u g???i m???t gi???i ph??p th????ng l?????ng d??nh cho cu???c chi???n. ??i???u n??y khi???n ??ng tr??? th??nh k??? th?? c???a T???ng th???ng Nguy???n V??n Thi???u, ng?????i cho b???t giam, x??t x??? v?? t???ng giam ??ng v??? t???i ph???n qu???c. ??ng s???ng ph???n th???i gian c??n l???i c???a cu???c chi???n trong t?? ho???c trong t??nh tr???ng qu???n th??c t???i gia. Sau chi???n th???ng c???a mi???n B???c n??m 1975, ??ng b??? t???ng giam m???t l???n n???a, l???n n??y l?? trong m???t tr???i c???i t???o c???a c???ng s???n. ??ng ???????c cho ra t?? n??m 1978 v?? di c?? sang M??? c??ng v???i gia ????nh.

Trong nh???ng th???p ni??n sau khi Chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam k???t th??c, ??ng Ch??u v?? nh???ng ng?????i M??? ???ng h??? ??ng ???? than phi???n r???ng vi???c ??ng b??? h??? b??? v???a l?? m???t s??? ph???n b???i v???a l?? m???t c?? h???i b??? b??? l???. Theo quan ??i???m c???a h???, ??ng Ch??u ???? thi???t k??? n??n m???t c??ng th???c ch???ng n???i d???y c?? hi???u qu???: B???ng c??ch l??i k??o ng?????i d??n ?????a ph????ng ??? Ki???n H??a tham d??? th??ng qua c??c ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t, ??ng ???? gi??nh ???????c tr??i tim v?? l?? tr?? c???a h??? trong khi v???n c?? th??? ti???p t???c thu th???p ???????c c??c th??ng tin t??nh b??o m?? c??c ?????i ch???ng Kh???ng b??? s??? d???ng ????? truy t??m c??c m???ng l?????i b?? m???t c???a k??? th??. Tuy nhi??n, ??ng Ch??u c??ng tin r???ng l??nh ?????o c???p cao c???a CIA ???? kh??ng th??? hi???u ???????c nh???ng th??nh t??? c???t l??i trong c??ch ti???p c???n c???a ??ng.

M???c d?? Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng vay m?????n m???t s??? kh??a c???nh c???a m?? h??nh Ki???n H??a, ??ng k???t lu???n r???ng n?? qu?? nh???n m???nh s??? d???ng v?? l???c v?? kh??ng coi tr???ng vi???c huy ?????ng ng?????i d??n. K???t qu??? l?? ??ng Ch??u v?? c??c b???n b?? ng?????i M??? c???a ??ng coi Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng nh?? l?? m???t s??? ???suy ?????i h??a??? c??c ?? t?????ng ban ?????u c???a ??ng Ch??u. ??ng Ch??u ???? tr??nh b??y c??ch di???n gi???i n??y trong c??c cu???c ph???ng v???n, trong cu???n h???i k?? b???ng ti???ng Anh xu???t b???n n??m 2012 c???a ??ng, v?? trong b??? phim t??i li???u g???n ????y The Vietnam War c???a Ken Burns v?? Lynn Novick.

Nh??ng ??ng Ch??u ???? th???c s??? ?????t ???????c nh???ng th??nh t???u g?? ??? Ki???n H??a? Nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ??ng th?????ng d???n c??c s??? li???u ch??nh th???c ????? ch???ng minh cho th??nh c??ng c???a ??ng: Trong n??m ?????u ti??n ??ng l??m t???nh tr?????ng, ?????c t??nh s??? d??n th?????ng s???ng trong v??ng ch??nh ph??? ki???m so??t c???a t???nh ???? t??ng t??? 80.000 l??n 220.000 trong t???ng d??n s??? kho???ng h??n n???a tri???u ng?????i. Tuy nhi??n, ch??nh ??ng Ch??u c??ng th?????ng n??i r???ng nh???ng th??nh t???u ???? ??t c?? ?? ngh??a n???u ng?????i d??n ?????a ph????ng kh??ng ???ng h??? ch??nh ph??? v?? c??c tuy??n b??? c???a ch??nh ph??? v??? ?????m b???o ch??? quy???n qu???c gia ??? m???t nhi???m v??? t??? ra qu?? kh?? kh??n t???i Nam Vi???t Nam trong th???i k??? gi???a nh???ng n??m 1960. T??nh ch???t ng???n ng???i trong c??c th??nh qu??? c???a ??ng Ch??u ???? b???c l??? r?? sau khi ??ng r???i t???nh Ki???n H??a: l???c l?????ng c???ng s???n nhanh ch??ng gi??nh l???i ph???n l???n l??nh th??? v?? d??n c?? v?? h??? ???? m???t.

Th??nh qu??? c??? th??? nh???t c???a ??ng Ch??u t???i Ki???n H??a ???? l?? ch????ng tr??nh ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t d??n c??. Nh?? m???t s??? gia c???a CIA sau n??y ghi nh???n, ch????ng tr??nh t??? ra l?? m???t c??ng c??? hi???u qu??? nh???m t???o ra c??c th??ng tin t??nh b??o kh??? d???ng v??? c??c l???c l?????ng v?? ?????c v??? c???a k??? th??. Nh??ng hi???u qu??? c???a n?? b???t ngu???n ch??? y???u kh??ng ph???i t??? vi???c gi??nh ???????c s??? ???ng h??? c???a c??ng ch??ng l?? t??? vi???c gi??m s??t h???.

Th???c s???, ch????ng tr??nh kh??ng ch??? thu th???p th??ng tin t??nh b??o v??? ???c???u tr??c Vi???t C???ng???, n?? c??n t???ng h???p c??c th??ng tin chi ti???t v??? m???i c?? d??n t???i t???ng th??n ???p n??i ch????ng tr??nh ???????c tri???n khai. Nh???ng th??ng tin n??y bao g???m d??? li???u v??? quan h??? h??? h??ng, c??c m???i li??n h??? ch??nh tr???, t??n gi??o, v?? c??? t??nh tr???ng s??? h???u t??i s???n. Nh?? ??ng Ch??u th???a nh???n, c??c th??ng tin n??y th?????ng ???????c s??? d???ng ????? g??y ??p l???c l??n c??c gia ????nh v?? to??n b??? c???ng ?????ng bu???c h??? tu??n theo c??c ch??? th??? c???a ch??nh ph???. V??? kh??a c???nh n??y, ch????ng tr??nh ??t t??ch c???c v?? mang nhi???u t??nh c?????ng b???c h??n so v???i nh???ng ng?????i th??c ?????y n?? th???a nh???n.

Vi???c s??? d???ng c??c ?????i ch???ng kh???ng b??? ??? Ki???n H??a c??ng ????i l???n kh??ng th??? tu??n theo c??c nguy??n t???c t???t ?????p m?? ??ng Ch??u ???? ????? ra. B???ng c??ch nh???m v??o nh???ng c??n b??? c???ng s???n c??? th??? ????? ???v?? hi???u h??a??? h???, ch????ng tr??nh ???? l??m gia t??ng s???c ??p qu??n s??? v?? t??m l?? l??n k??? th??. C??c ch??? huy c???ng s???n ph???n ???ng l???i b???ng c??ch treo th?????ng ?????c bi???t cho b???t c??? ng?????i n??o trong ????n v??? c???a h??? c?? th??? ti??u di???t ???????c m???t th??nh vi??n c???a ?????i ch???ng kh???ng b???. Cu???c ?????u tranh gi???a hai b??n nhanh ch??ng tr??? th??nh cu???c n???i chi???n ??? c???p ????? c???ng ?????ng m?? trong ???? l???i h???a c???a ??ng Ch??u r???ng s??? ch??? s??? d???ng v?? l???c nh?? l?? ph????ng ti???n cu???i c??ng th?????ng b??? ph?? v???. Khi m???t tuy??n truy???n vi??n c???ng s???n ph??n ph???i c??c t??? b?????m ca ng???i m???t ng?????i b???n t???a du k??ch ti??u di???t ???????c m???t c??? v???n qu??n s??? M??? ??? Ki???n H??a, ??ng Ch??u ???? ra l???nh cho ?????i ch???ng Kh???ng b??? th??m nh???p v??o th??n do k??? th?? ki???m so??t n??i ng?????i l??nh b???n t???a ??ang s???ng. C??c th??nh vi??n c???a nh??m ???? gi???t ch???t ng?????i l??nh b???n t???a b???ng c??ch tung l???u ?????n v??o nh?? c???a anh ta trong l??c anh ta ??ang ng???.

Nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch ho???t ?????ng ch???ng n???i d???y ??? Vi???t Nam nhi???u kh??? n??ng s??? coi c??u chuy???n ti??u di???t tay s??ng b???n t???a tr??n nh?? l?? b???ng ch???ng cho th???y c??c ho???t ?????ng c???a ??ng Ch??u ??? Ki???n H??a ????n thu???n ch??? l?? m???t ch????ng tr??nh ??m s??t. ??ng Ch??u v?? nh???ng ng?????i b???o v??? ??ng c?? th??? ph???n b??c r???ng nh???ng h??nh ?????ng gi???t ch??c nh?? v???y l?? c???n thi???t v?? ???????c bi???n minh b???i vi???c nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n s??? d???ng bi???n ph??p ??m s??t c?? ch???n l???c, v?? r???ng vi???c thi tho???ng tri???n khai nh???ng chi???n thu???t nh?? v???y n??n ???????c nh??n nh???n trong b???i c???nh nh???ng n??? l???c r???ng l???n h??n c???a ??ng nh???m gi??nh ???????c tr??i tim v?? kh???i ??c c???a ng?????i d??n. Nh??ng c??? hai l???p lu???n n??y l??m gi???m ?? ngh??a c???a nh???ng th??nh t??? c???t l??i trong chi???n tranh ch???ng n???i d???y ???????c ti???n h??nh t???i Vi???t Nam.

??ng Ch??u kh??ng ????? xu???t ????nh b???i c???ng s???n ??? Ki???n H??a ch??? b???ng c??ch ??m s??t h???. ??ng t???o ra c??c ?????i ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t nh?? l?? m???t ph????ng ti???n ????? thu h??t s??? ???ng h??? c???a ng?????i d??n trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng l???i k??? th??. Tuy nhi??n, quy tr??nh m?? ??ng ????? xu???t nh???m gi??nh ???????c s??? h???p t??c c???a ng?????i d??n kh??ng d???a v??o vi???c gi??nh ???????c s??? ?????ng thu???n hay s??? t??? nguy???n tham gia c???a h???. C??c ?????i ??i???u tra ??? kh???o s??t ???? mang l???i cho ch??nh ph??? m???t ph????ng th???c ??p ?????t m???t h??? th???ng gi??m s??t v?? ki???m so??t l??n to??n b??? c??c c???ng ?????ng d??n c?? v?? thu th???p c??c th??ng tin t??nh b??o t??? m???i ng?????i d??n. Trong khi ??ng Ch??u hy v???ng r???ng ng?????i d??n s??? cung c???p nh???ng th??ng tin t??nh b??o n??y m???t c??ch t??? nguy???n, m???c ti??u bao tr??m c???a ??ng l?? thu ???????c th??ng tin c???n thi???t ????? ph??t hi???n v?? ph?? h???y c??c m???ng l?????i b?? m???t c???a k??? th??. H??n n???a, d?? vi???c theo ??u???i m???c ti??u n??y bao g???m c??c n??? l???c nh???m b???t gi??? nh???ng ?????c v??? c???a k??? th?? ho???c thuy???t ph???c h??? ?????u h??ng, n?? c??ng bao g???m r???t nhi???u v?? l???c, bao g???m m???t s??? v??? ??m s??t. Trong t???t c??? nh???ng kh??a c???nh n??y, m?? h??nh m?? ??ng Ch??u thi???t k??? n??n t???i Ki???n H??a c?? nhi???u ??i???m t????ng ?????ng v???i Ch????ng tr??nh Ph???ng Ho??ng sau n??y.

S??? nghi???p c???a Tr???n Ng???c Ch??u ch??? ra m???t s??? th???t l???n h??n v??? ho???t ?????ng ch???ng n???i d???y ??? Vi???t Nam v??? v??? l???ch s??? c???a chi???n tranh ch???ng n???i d???y n??i chung. Gi???ng nh?? c??c ?????i t??c ng?????i M??? c???a m??nh, ??ng Ch??u ???? th??c ?????y c??i m?? b??y gi??? ???????c g???i l?? ph????ng th???c ch???ng n???i d???y l???y d??n c?? l??m trung t??m, m???t c??ch ti???p c???n nh???n m???nh vi???c b???o v??? v?? ki???m so??t d??n c?? d??n s???. Nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? c??ch ti???p c???n n??y th?????ng m?? t??? n?? nh?? l?? m???t ph????ng th???c chi???n tranh nh??n b???n, ho??n to??n ph?? h???p v???i ph??p lu???t v??? chi???n tranh, v?? v???i c??c l?? t?????ng t??? do c???a ng?????i M???.

C??ch ti???p c???n c???a ??ng Ch??u r?? r??ng ??t mang t??nh h???y di???t h??n so v???i nh???ng chi???n thu???t m?? c??c ch??? huy Hoa K??? v?? Nam Vi???t Nam ??a th??ch, ???? l?? chi???n ?????u v???i k??? th?? b???ng ?????n ph??o v?? c??c cu???c kh??ng k??ch. Nh??ng c??c ph????ng ph??p c???a ??ng c??ng kh??ng ho??n to??n kh??ng ????? m??u v?? chi???n th???ng m?? ??ng mu???n ?????t ???????c kh??ng d???a v??o vi???c gi??nh ???????c tr??i tim v?? kh???i ??c c???a ng?????i d??n. Thay v??o ????, c??ch ti???p c???n c???a ??ng d???a r???t nhi???u v??o vi???c thao t??ng, c?????ng ??p, ??e d???a v?? ??m s??t. Ng?????i M??? c???n ghi nh??? nh???ng ??i???u n??y khi ngh?? v??? c??c cu???c chi???n tranh ch???ng n???i d???y m?? M??? ti???p t???c ti???n h??nh ng??y nay.

Edward Miller l?? ph?? gi??o s?? l???ch s??? t???i Dartmouth College v?? l?? t??c gi??? cu???n ???Misalliance: Ngo Dinh Diem, the United States, and the Fate of South Vietnam???.

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