Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 13/08/2019

Thứ hai - 12/08/2019 22:26
H??m nay m???t quy ?????nh m???i b???t ?????u c?? hi???u l???c c???m c??c c?? quan ch??nh ph??? M??? mua thi???t b??? c???a Huawei. ????y l?? ????n m???i nh???t trong cu???c t???n c??ng c???a ch??nh ph??? M??? nh???m v??o g?? kh???ng l??? c??ng ngh??? Trung Qu???c k??? t??? th??ng 5, khi c??ng ty n??y b??? ????a v??o danh s??ch c??c th???c th??? m?? c??c nh?? xu???t kh???u M??? kh??ng ???????c b??n c??c c??ng ngh??? quan tr???ng
Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 13/08/2019

Th??? gi???i h??m nay: 13/08/2019

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Ngu???n: The Economist | Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy

Huawei trong t???m ng???m c???a M???

H??m nay m???t quy ?????nh m???i b???t ?????u c?? hi???u l???c c???m c??c c?? quan ch??nh ph??? M??? mua thi???t b??? c???a Huawei. ????y l?? ????n m???i nh???t trong cu???c t???n c??ng c???a ch??nh ph??? M??? nh???m v??o g?? kh???ng l??? c??ng ngh??? Trung Qu???c k??? t??? th??ng 5, khi c??ng ty n??y b??? ????a v??o danh s??ch c??c th???c th??? m?? c??c nh?? xu???t kh???u M??? kh??ng ???????c b??n c??c c??ng ngh??? quan tr???ng. Hoa K??? b??y t??? ng??? v???c ?????i v???i c??c thi???t b??? vi???n th??ng c???a Huawei, v???n ???? ph??? bi???n to??n c???u, v?? lo ng???i r???ng ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c c?? th??? s??? d???ng s??? ph??? bi???n n??y ????? do th??m M??? v?? c??c ?????ng minh.

Nh??ng Huawei c??n l??u m???i ch???u b??? ????nh b???i. H???i cu???i th??ng 7, c??ng ty n??y b??o c??o t??ng tr?????ng doanh thu h???ng n??m l?? 23%. ?????n ng??y 9 th??ng 8, Huawei c??ng b??? m???t h??? ??i???u h??nh m???i c?? t??n l?? Harmony, ???????c thi???t k??? nh???m ????a h??? tho??t kh???i s??? ph??? thu???c v??o h??? ??i???u h??nh Android c???a Google. T???p ??o??n n??y k?? v???ng vi???c thi???t k??? Harmony v???i m?? ngu???n m??? cho ph??p m???i ng?????i d??ng ki???m tra s??? l??m gi???m s??? ng??? v???c. C?? th???, nh??ng ???? v???n l?? m???t tr???n chi???n kh?? nh???n.

Qu???c h???i Anh v?? Brexit ???kh??ng th???a thu???n???

C??c cu???c tranh lu???n v???n ti???p di???n xoay quanh vi???c li???u Qu???c h???i Anh c?? th??? ng??n ch??nh ph??? c???a ??ng Boris Johnson ????a Anh ra kh???i Li??n minh ch??u ??u m?? kh??ng c???n m???t th???a thu???n n??o. ??a s??? c??c ngh??? s?? ?????u ch???ng l???i vi???c ???kh??ng th???a thu???n???, nh??ng ??ng Johnson kh???ng ?????nh r???ng Brexit ph???i di???n ra v??o ng??y 31 th??ng 10, ???ra ??i hay l?? ch???t???. Hi???n t???i c??? lu???t ph??p c???a Anh v?? EU ?????u ???n ?????nh Brexit v??o ng??y n??y, sau khi ???? gia h???n th??m 7 th??ng k??? t??? h???n ch??t ban ?????u v??o m??a xu??n.

M???t b??o c??o m???i t??? Vi???n Qu???n tr??? ch??nh quy???n (m???t vi???n nghi??n c???u ?????c l???p), cho r???ng c??c ngh??? s?? ??ang c???n d???n c??c l???a ch???n v?? th???i gian trong vi???c ng??n ch???n m???t Brexit ???kh??ng th???a thu???n???. Ch??nh ph??? cho r???ng h??? c?? th??? ch???n ?????ng m???i n??? l???c (c???a Ngh??? vi???n) nh???m th??ng qua lu???t k??u g???i k??o d??i th???i h???n Brexit. Ngay c??? khi Ngh??? vi???n b??? phi???u b???t t??n nhi???m ??ng Johnson v??o th??ng t???i, nh?? c??c ngh??? s?? t??? m???t s??? ?????ng hy v???ng, th?? Ph??? Downing v???n tin r???ng h??? c?? th??? tr?? ho??n cu???c t???ng tuy???n c??? cho ?????n sau khi Brexit x???y ra. V?? ch??? c??n c?? 79 ng??y n???a l?? ?????n ng??y 31/10.

B???u c??? t???ng th???ng ??? Argentina

Cu???i tu???n qua k???t qu??? b??? phi???u ??p ?????o ??? Argentina r???t c?? th??? b??o hi???u s??? k???t th??c nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng c???a Mauricio Macri. Tri???n v???ng quay tr??? l???i ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y ???? k??ch ho???t s??? h???t ho???ng c???a th??? tr?????ng h??m th??? Hai. V??ng b??? phi???u s?? b??? to??n qu???c n??y s??? ???????c ti???p n???i b???i cu???c b???u c??? v??o th??ng M?????i, song t??? l??? phi???u cho th???y c?? h???i cho ch??nh ph??? c???a ??ng Macri l?? r???t mong manh. T??? l??? phi???u to??n qu???c d??nh cho ??ng gi???m 48% xu???ng ch??? c??n 32%, mang l???i l???i th??? cho Alberto Fern??ndez, m???t nh?? Peron ch??? ngh??a k??? c???u, v?? ng?????i ?????ng h??nh c??ng ch???y ??ua v???i ??ng n??y, c???u T???ng th???ng Cristina Fern??ndez de Kirchner.

??ng Fern??ndez, ng?????i ????? ngh??? gi???m gi?? ?????ng peso v?? tuy??n b??? v??? n??? tr??i phi???u ch??nh ph??? Argentina, ???? ??n m???ng chi???n th???ng s?? b???, tuy??n b??? r???ng: ???Ch??ng t??i ch??nh l?? s??? thay ?????i???. C?? c???u phi???u cho th???y ??ng Macri v???n c??n ???? c?? h???i, m???c cho l???m ph??t cao, t??? l??? th???t nghi???p t??ng, v?? g??i c???u tr??? 57 t??? ???? la t??? IMF. Th??? nh??ng, ng??i t???ng th???ng, r?? r??ng ??ang cho??ng v??ng, than th??? v??? m???t ???cu???c b???u c??? t???i t?????? v?? hy v???ng r???ng phe ?????i l???p s??? th??? hi???n ???tr??ch nhi???m??? trong v??i th??ng t???i.

M???c ti??u th???c hi???n: l???m ph??t ??? M???

Th??ng tr?????c, C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang M??? ???? gi???m l??i su???t chu???n l???n ?????u ti??n sau h??n m???t th???p ni??n. T???i sao h??? l???i l??m ??i???u n??y? V?? m???t lo???t l?? do. C?? nh???ng d???u hi???u cho th???y s??? y???u k??m trong n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u, v?? c??? ??? M???. Cu???c chi???n tranh th????ng m???i c???a T???ng th???ng Trump ??? n?????c ngo??i ng??y c??ng c?? kh??? n??ng g??y h???i ng?????c l???i cho n???n kinh t??? M???. H??n n???a, l???m ph??t ??? M??? ???? th???p m???t c??ch k??? l???, li??n t???c d?????i m???c m???c ti??u 2% c???a Fed.

H??m nay B??? Lao ?????ng s??? c??ng b??? d??? li???u l???m ph??t m???i nh???t c???a h???. C??c nh?? kinh t??? k??? v???ng r???ng l???m ph??t c?? b???n, ???? lo???i tr??? gi?? l????ng th???c v?? n??ng l?????ng v???n b???t ???n ?????nh, s??? t??ng 0,2% trong th??ng 7 v?? 2,1% trong n??m nay. Song ngay c??? m???t con s??? l???m ph??t m???nh m??? ngay h??m nay v???n kh?? c?? th??? d???p t???t nh???ng lo ng???i c???a Fed. Thu??? quan ?????i v???i h??ng ti??u d??ng r?? r??ng ??ang ?????y l???m ph??t l??n cao, nh??ng t??c ?????ng c???a ch??ng ch??? l?? nh???t th???i. N???u h??m nay l???m ph??t gi???m, r???t c?? kh??? n??ng m???t s??? quan ch???c Fed s??? mu???n c???t gi???m l??i su???t h??n n???a.

N???i lo l???ng c???a c??c c??ng ty du l???ch

N??m v???a qua r?? r??ng l?? n??m kh?? kh??n cho c??c g?? kh???ng l??? ??i???u h??nh c??c tour du l???ch Ch??u ??u. Gi?? c??? phi???u h??ng TUI c???a ?????c ???? gi???m m???t n???a, trong khi ???? c??? phi???u h??ng Thomas Cook c???a Anh ???? gi???m h??n 90%. Thomas Cook ??ang nhanh ch??ng c???n ki???t ti???n m???t; ni???m hy v???ng c???a h??? n???m ??? kho???n c???u tr??? t??? nh???ng ng?????i cho vay v?? Fosun, m???t t???p ??o??n Trung Qu???c, ?????ng th???i l?? c??? ????ng l???n nh???t c???a c??ng ty n??y.

Khi TUI b??o c??o doanh thu Qu?? II v??o h??m nay, c??c nh?? ?????u t?? ??ang mong ?????i v??o c??c tin t???t h??n. Song h???u h???t c??c v???n ????? d???n ?????n s???t gi???m l???i nhu???n c???a h??? h???i ?????u n??m nay v???n r???t nghi??m tr???ng: chi ti??u th???p c???a ng?????i ti??u d??ng Anh v??o c??c ng??y l??? do lo ng???i t??c ?????ng c???a m???t Brexit ???kh??ng th???a thu???n???, s??? ???qu?? t???i??? ??? c??c th??? tr?????ng Trung ??u c???t l??i c???a h??? v?? t??nh h??nh kh??ng m???y kh??? quan c???a d??ng m??y bay Boeing 737 MAX (m?? theo c??ng ty ?????c t??nh s??? ti??u t???n ?????n 300 tri???u euro (336 tri???u ???? la) v??o th??ng Ch??n). Nh??ng ??t nh???t h??? c??ng n??n c?? l??i trong n??m nay, ??i???u m?? Thomas Cook kh?? c?? th??? l??m ???????c.
 

#231 ??? L?? Quang Di???u vi???t v??? chi???n l?????c Thao quang d?????ng h???i c???a TQ

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Ngu???n: Lee Kuan Yew (2013). ???Tao guang yang hui???, in L.K. Yew, One Man???s View of the World (Singapore: Straits Times Press), pp. 28-50.

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Ph???m Trang Nhung

B??i li??n quan: C??c ch????ng kh??c c???a cu???n One Man???s View of the World

T??i g???p T???p C???n B??nh l???n ?????u ti??n ??? ?????i l??? ???????ng Nh??n d??n trong m???t chuy???n th??m B???c Kinh v??o th??ng 11 n??m 2007. Ban ?????u t??i kh??ng y??u c???u g???p ??ng ta. T??i ???? ????? ngh??? g???p m???t ng?????i kh??c, nh??ng r???i ng?????i ta s???p x???p cho t??i g???p ??ng, nh?? v???a n??i. H??? coi ??ng ??? v??? tr?? cao trong danh s??ch ??u ti??n. ???? l?? l???n ?????u ti??n ??ng ???y g???p m???t v??? l??nh ?????o n?????c ngo??i sau khi ???????c b??? nhi???m v??o Th?????ng v???  B??? Ch??nh tr??? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c, m???t ?????ng th??i r?? r??ng ????? ??m ch??? v???i th??? gi???i r???ng ng?????i ta ???? d??? ki???n ????? ??ng ti???p qu???n v??? tr?? c???a H??? C???m ????o.

???n t?????ng ?????u ti??n c???a t??i v??? ??ng l?? m???t ng?????i c???c k?? ph??ng kho??ng ??? c??i m?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c hay g???i l?? ?????i kh?? (da qi), ng?????c v???i ti???u kh?? (xiao qi). ??ng kh??ng ph???i k??? h???p h??i. ??ng ???y suy ngh?? k?? c??ng v??? c??c v???n ????? v?? kh??ng mu???n khoe khoang hi???u bi???t c???a m??nh. ??ng thi???u s??? th??n thi???n c???a Giang Tr???ch D??n v?? c??ng kh??ng ki???u c??ch nh?? H??? C???m ????o. Nh??ng ??ng c?? v??? trang tr???ng. ???? l?? ???n t?????ng ?????u ti??n c???a t??i. C??n nh???c th??m nh???ng th??ch th???c v?? kh??? s??? m?? ??ng ???y ???? tr???i qua, khi c??n tr??? ???? b??? ????a v??? n??ng th??n, t???i Thi???m T??y n??m 1969, nh??ng l???i t??m c??ch ????? t???ng b?????c quay v???, kh??ng ph??n n??n, kh??ng c???n nh???n. T??i mu???n ?????t ??ng v??o c??ng ki???u ng?????i v???i Nelson Mandela.

??ng T???p l?? c???t l??i c???a th??? h??? l??nh ?????o th??? 5 c???a Trung Qu???c t??nh t??? n??m 1949. ??ng ?????ng ?????u m???t ch??nh ph??? c?? ti??u chu???n v??? n??ng l???c cao ??? m???i c???p ????? ??? m???t ph???m ch???t c?? t??? th???i ch??? ????? quan l???i (phong ki???n). H??n th??? n???a, c??c quan ch???c Trung Qu???c l???i ???????c ti???p x??c v???i gi??o d???c ki???u ph????ng T??y, quen thu???c v???i th??? gi???i, v?? n??i ti???ng Anh tr??i ch???y. H??? kh??ng c??n l?? nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n theo ????ng ngh??a ??en c???a t??? n??y, m?? l?? nh???ng ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a th???c d???ng quy???t t??m t??i luy???n ???????c m???t qu???c gia gi??u c??, ph??t tri???n v?? c?? k??? thu???t ti??n ti???n. C??? b???n l??nh ?????o t???i cao tr?????c ???? ?????u ????? l???i nh???ng d???u ???n ri??ng. V???i Mao Tr???ch ????ng, ???? l?? nh???ng cu???c c??ch m???ng li??n mi??n. V???i ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, ???? l?? c???i c??ch v?? m??? c???a. V???i Giang Tr???ch D??n, ???? l?? c???ng c??? v?? ph??t tri???n. V?? v???i H??? C???m ????o, ???? l?? x?? h???i h??i h??a ??? c??? th??? h??n, r??t ng???n kho???ng c??ch gi???a ng?????i gi??u v?? ng?????i ngh??o. C??n ??ng T???p s??? ????? l???i di s???n g???

K??? t??? khi t??i th??m Trung Qu???c l???n ?????u n??m 1976, t??i ???? quy???t ?????nh l?? ph???i c??? th??m n?????c n??y th?????ng xuy??n ??? m???i n??m m???t l???n n???u c?? th???. T??i ???? g???p t???t c??? c??c v??? l??nh ?????o t???i cao n??y, t??? Mao t???i H???, v?? gi??? l?? T???p. Mao l?? m???t ng?????i ????n ??ng v?? ?????i ???? gi??p Trung Qu???c h???i sinh. N??m 1949, sau 200 n??m h???n lo???n, ??ng ta ?????ng ??? Thi??n An M??n v?? tuy??n b??? r???ng ???Ng?????i Trung Qu???c ???? v??ng l??n???. L?? m???t ng?????i c??ch m???ng, Mao ch???ng thua k??m ai. ??ng l?? b???c th???y v??? chi???n tranh du k??ch v?? v???i c??c h??nh ?????ng qu??n s??? kh??o l??o, ???? ????nh b???i Qu???c D??n ?????ng v?? th???ng nh???t ?????t n?????c. Nh??ng li???u ??ng c?? ph???i ng?????i hi???n ?????i h??a Trung Qu???c? L???ch s??? ghi nh???n ?????y bi th????ng r???ng ng?????i ????n ??ng ???? gi???i ph??ng Trung Qu???c l???i g???n nh?? ???? ph?? h???y n?????c n??y trong C??ch m???ng V??n h??a. N???u ??ng c??n s???ng ti???p, hay n???u Hoa Qu???c Phong ??? ng?????i k??? nhi???m ngay sau ??ng v?? ???? th???a h?????ng t?? t?????ng c???a ??ng ??? c??n ti???p t???c n???m quy???n, Trung Qu???c s??? ??i theo con ???????ng c???a Li??n X??. T??i ch??? c?? c?? h???i g???p Mao khi ??ng ???? k???t th??c s??? nghi???p, khi ??ng kh??ng c??n ??? ?????nh cao nh???t. C?? m???t ng?????i ph??? n??? d???ch nh???ng g?? ??ng n??i b???ng gi???ng H??? Nam cho ng?????i phi??n d???ch ????? ng?????i n??y d???ch l???i sang ti???ng Anh. T??i ???? ch??? th???y ???????c c??i b??ng c???a m???t ng?????i ????n ??ng huy???n tho???i.

Th???t may cho Trung Qu???c, ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? ?????o ng?????c l??? tr??nh c???a n?????c n??y. ??ng ???y t???i Singapore n??m 1978, sau khi t???i Bangkok v?? Kuala Lumpur. ??ng ta mu???n ch??ng t??i t???p h???p l???i v?? ng??n ch???n vi???c Vi???t Nam t???n c??ng Campuchia, v??, n???u h??? th???c s??? t???n c??ng Campuchia, th?? c???n b?????c h???. T??i ngh?? chuy???n ??i ???? ???? m??? m???t cho ??ng. H???n l?? ??ng ???y ???? k?? v???ng s??? th???y ba th??? ???? l???c h???u. ???? v???n l?? ba n?????c ngh??o. Thay v??o ????, ??ng ???? th???y ba th??? ???? v?????t tr???i so v???i b???t k?? th??nh ph??? n??o ??? Trung Qu???c. ??ng ???y ??? Singapore b???n ng??y. Khi c???a l??n m??y bay c???a ??ng ????ng l???i ??? s??n bay, t??i n??i v???i c??c ?????ng nghi???p c???a m??nh: ???Nh???ng b??o c??o vi??n c???a ??ng ta s???p ph???i ch???u tr???n r???i b???i v?? ??ng ta ???? th???y m???t Singapore ho??n to??n tr??i ng?????c v???i nh???ng b??o c??o ??ng ta nh???n ???????c.??? Nh???ng b???n b??o c??o ???? h???n l?? do nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? c???ng s???n ??? ????y so???n ra v?? n?? ???? b??? xuy??n t???c.

??ng ???y ???? ch??c m???ng t??i l??c ??n t???i v?? khi t??i h???i l?? do, ??ng n??i: ???C??c ??ng c?? m???t th??nh ph??? th???t ?????p, m???t th??nh ph??? xanh??? (t??? g???c: garden city). T??i ???? c???m ??n ??ng nh??ng l???i n??i th??m: ???B???t k??? c??i g?? ch??ng t??i l??m ???????c, c??c v??? ?????u c?? th??? l??m t???t h??n b???i v?? ch??ng t??i l?? h???u du??? c???a nh???ng n??ng d??n m???t ?????t ??? mi???n Nam Trung Qu???c. C??c v??? c?? tr?? th???c, c??c v??? c?? nh?? khoa h???c, c??c v??? c?? chuy??n gia. D?? ch??ng t??i l??m g??, c??c v??? c??ng s??? l??m t???t h??n.??? ??ng ???y kh??ng tr??? l???i t??i m?? ch??? nh??n t??i b???ng ??nh m???t s???c l???m v?? r???i ??ng ti???p t???c v?? chuy???n ch??? ?????. ???? l?? v??o n??m 1978.

N??m 1992, ??ng xu???ng Qu???ng ????ng trong chuy???n th??m mi???n nam n???i ti???ng nh???m th??c ?????y t???ng l???p l??nh ?????o ti???n h??nh m??? c???a v?? ??ng ???? n??i: ???H???c t???p t??? th??? gi???i, v?? ?????c bi???t l?? h???c t???p Singapore r???i l??m t???t h??n h???.??? T??i t??? n??i v???i m??nh: ?????, ??ng ???y kh??ng qu??n nh???ng g?? m??nh n??i.??? Th???c s??? l?? h??? c?? th??? l??m t???t h??n ch??ng t??i.

??? Singapore, ?????ng ???? th???y ???????c l??m th??? n??o m?? m???t h??n ?????o nh??? ch???ng c?? t??i nguy??n thi??n nhi??n g?? l???i c?? th??? t???o ra ?????i s???ng t???t ?????p cho ng?????i d??n ch??? b???ng c??ch thu h??t ?????u t??, qu???n l?? v?? k?? thu???t c???a n?????c ngo??i. ??ng ???? tr??? v??? Trung Qu???c khi b??? thuy???t ph???c r???ng c???n ph???i m??? c???a n???n kinh t??? v???i th??? gi???i. ???? l?? m???t th???i kh???c c?? vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong l???ch s??? Trung Qu???c, m???t b?????c ngo???t ch??? ch???t m?? n?????c n??y ???? kh??ng c??n nh??n l???i t??? ???? n???a.

T??i ???? ch???ng ki???n nh???ng bi???n ?????i l???n c???a n?????c n??y. C??ng cu???c x??y d???ng v???t ch???t ???? bi???n nh???ng th??nh ph??? c?? n??t, kh??ng ???????c x??y d???ng t??? t??? v???i c?? s??? v???t ch???t ngh??o n??n tr??? th??nh nh???ng th??nh ph??? c?? t??u t???c h??nh, ???????ng cao t???c v?? s??n bay. B???n c?? th??? th??m ?????i Li??n, Th?????ng H???i, B???c Kinh, Qu???ng ????ng, hay Th??m Quy???n ??? gi??? ch??ng c?? th??? s??nh v???i Hong Kong hay b???t k?? th??nh ph??? n??o kh??c tr??n th??? gi???i. Ng?????i Trung Qu???c l?? nh???ng ng?????i th??? x??y v?? th??? m???c v?? ?????i. T??i ch???ng hi???u n???i v?? sao h??? l???i k??m h??m vi???c n??y l??u ?????n th???, d?? n?? g??y h???i cho ch??nh h???.

?????ng x???ng ????ng ???????c ghi c??ng nhi???u nh???t v?? ???? ????a Trung Qu???c v??o m???t qu??? ?????o kh??c. Khi ??ng mu???n m??? c???a, nhi???u l??nh ?????o c?? ???? ph???n ?????i. Nh??ng ??ng l?? ng?????i c????ng quy???t. ??ng g???t h??? sang b??n v?? c??? ti???p t???c ti???n h??nh. N???u kh??ng c?? ??ng, th?? qu?? tr??nh chuy???n ?????i ???? ch???ng di???n ra nhanh nh?? v???y, b???i v?? ??ng l?? ng?????i duy nh???t t???ng tham gia cu???c V???n l?? tr?????ng chinh ???? kh??ng ?????m x???a ?????n nh???ng k??? hay nghi ng???i. M???t ng?????i ????n ??ng c?? v??c d??ng nh??? b??, nh??ng l???i l?? m???t l??nh ?????o v?? ?????i ??? kh??ng nghi ng??? g?? n???a ?????ng l?? l??nh ?????o qu???c t??? ???n t?????ng nh???t m?? t??i t???ng g???p.

Giang Tr???ch D??n ???????c ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ch???n l??m ng?????i l??nh ?????o k??? nhi???m. L?? b?? th?? ?????ng c???a Th?????ng H???i khi di???n ra s??? ki???n Thi??n An M??n n??m 1989, Giang ???? tr???n ??p th??nh c??ng nh???ng cu???c n???i lo???n t????ng t??? ??? Th?????ng H???i. ??ng l?? ng?????i ki??n ?????nh xem vi???c ho??n th??nh ch????ng tr??nh hi???n ?????i h??a do ?????ng kh???i x?????ng l?? m???c ti??u c???a m??nh. T??i v???n nh??? ??ng l?? m???t ng?????i n???ng h???u v?? th??n thi???n. ??ng ta c?? th??? h??t vang b??i h??t ti???ng ?? n???i ti???ng, O Sole Mio. V?? ??ng ???y ch???p l???y t??i v?? n??i: ?????ng ngh?? ng?????i M??? s??? l??m g?? ch??ng t??i???? T???t nhi??n, ???? l?? tr?????c khi h??? c?? nh???ng m???i quan h??? t???t ?????p v???i ng?????i M???. Gi??? th?? h??? ch???ng c??n c???n h???i t??i c??u ???? n???a.

T??i cho r???ng H??? C???m ????o l?? ng?????i c???ng c??? (Trung Qu???c). C?? l??? c?? v??i thay ?????i c??n b???n ???? di???n ra d?????i th???i ??ng c???m quy???n. Nh??ng ??ng ???? c?? qu?? nhi???u v???n ????? c???n gi???i quy???t li??n quan ?????n vi???c c???ng c??? (?????t n?????c), x??t ?????n h??ng lo???t th??ch th???c m?? Trung Qu???c ph???i ?????i m???t, nh?? l?? vi???c di d??n gi???a th??nh th??? v?? n??ng th??n v?? kho???ng c??ch thu nh???p gia t??ng. T??i c?? ???n t?????ng r???ng ??ng l?? m???t ng?????i tr???m t??nh v?? s??u s???c. ??ng kh??ng khoa tr????ng, nh??ng ??ng c?? tr?? nh??? tuy???t v???i v?? nghi??n c???u c???n th???n m???i v???n ?????. Ngay sau khi n???m quy???n, ???? c?? m???t v??i sai l???m ban ?????u khi gi???i quy???t kh???ng ho???ng d???ch SARS, nh??ng khi h??? nh???n ra r???ng n?? l?? m???i ??e d???a nghi??m tr???ng ?????i v???i n???n kinh t???, h??? ???? k??m l???i ????? gi???i quy???t v???n ?????, k??? c??? vi???c sa th???i B??? tr?????ng Y t??? v?? Th??? tr?????ng B???c Kinh ch??a t???ng c?? ti???n l???.  ???? l?? cu???c ph?? di???n cho s??? l??nh ?????o c???ng r???n c???a H??? C???m ????o v?? th??? t?????ng ??n Gia B???o. Sau c??ng th??, m???t trong nh???ng l?? do H??? ???????c ????a v??o trung ????ng l?? v?? ??ng ???? d???p y??n cu???c n???i lo???n ??? T??y T???ng. ?????ng sau v??? ngo??i ??n h??a th??n thi???n, t??i ngh?? ??ng l?? ng?????i ????n ??ng th??p.

Th???t kh?? ????? d??? ??o??n l?? T???p C???n B??nh s??? theo ??u???i ch??nh s??ch g?? v?? ??ng ???y s??? ????? l???i nh???ng di s???n g?? sau m???t th???p k??? c???m quy???n. C??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c kh??ng ph??? bi???n k??? ho???ch t????ng lai tr?????c khi nh???m ch???c. H??? kh??ng th??ch m???o hi???m. Trung Qu???c ??ang ??? trong m???t th???i k?? quan tr???ng li??n quan ?????n c??c th??ch th???c trong n?????c v?? ??ng ???y s??? mu???n d??nh s???c gi???i quy???t nh???ng v???n ????? n??y. C?? nhi???u chuy???n c??ng ph??? thu???c v??o c??c s??? ki???n b??n ngo??i ?????t nhi??n ph??t sinh. K??? ho???ch t???t nh???t c???a b???n c?? th??? ??i ch???ch h?????ng khi b???n ph???i ?????i m???t v???i m???t di???n bi???n kh??ng mong mu???n nghi??m tr???ng. Nh??ng t??i tin l?? ??ng s??? ph???n ???ng m???t c??ch th???u ????o, kh??ng s??? h??i. ??ng c?? ???nh h?????ng l???n v?? t??i ngh?? ??ng s??? qu???n l?? ???????c ?????ng theo ?? m??nh. Xu???t th??n qu??n ?????i c???a ??ng c??ng gi??p ??ng c?? ???nh h?????ng v???i qu??n ?????i.

Ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a ??ng s??? ???????c theo d??i s??t sao. S??? n???i l??n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? th??nh n???i khi???p s??? v???i nhi???u n?????c, d?? ph????ng T??y hay ch??u ??. M???t n?????c Trung Qu???c m???nh mang l???i nhi???u l???i ??ch cho c???ng ?????ng to??n c???u, nh?? l?? kho???n ?????u t?? ng??y c??ng t??ng c???a c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c ho???t ?????ng ??? n?????c ngo??i. Nh??ng c??c l??ng gi???ng c???a Trung Qu???c ???? b???t ?????u c???m nh???n ???????c m???t l???p tr?????ng ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???ng r???n h??n t??? ph??a ng?????i kh???ng l??? ng??? say v???a m???i th???c t???nh n??y. N?????c M??? c??ng s??? ?????i m???t v???i nh???ng th??ch th???c l???n ?????i v???i th??? ??u vi???t c???a n?????c n??y, n???u kh??ng ph???i l?? ??? m???c ????? to??n c???u th?? ch???c ch???n c??ng ??? khu v???c ch??u ??-Th??i B??nh D????ng.

V???n ????? trung t??m l?? li???u ng?????i ta c?? tin v??o vi???c Trung Qu???c l???p ??i l???p l???i ?????m b???o r???ng n?????c n??y ch???ng t??m ki???m g?? h??n ngo??i m???t s??? tr???i d???y h??a b??nh v?? n?????c n??y s??? kh??ng bao gi??? tr??? th??nh b?? quy???n kh??ng? C?? hai c??ch nh??n. M???t l?? Trung Qu???c s??? tr??? n??n m???nh m??? m???t c??ch th???m l???ng v?? l???ng l??? t??ng c?????ng ???nh h?????ng c???a h??? m?? kh??ng h??nh ?????ng nh?? l?? k??? g??y h???n. M???t c??ch kh??c l?? h??? s??? ph?? tr????ng s???c m???nh v?? c??? g???ng h??m d???a c??c n?????c kh??c.

T??i ngh?? h??? s??? ch???n c??ch th??? nh???t, nh??ng ?????ng th???i c??ng t??ng c?????ng s???c m???nh. ?????ng Ti???u B??nh b??? thuy???t ph???c r???ng s??? kh??n ngo???n h??n khi Trung Qu???c c??? g???ng tr??nh g??y ch?? ?? khi n?????c n??y d???n tr??? n??n m???nh h??n. ??ng ???? tin v??o vi???c che d???u n??ng l???c, hay nh?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c g???i l?? thao quang d?????ng h???i. Ng?????i Trung Qu???c bi???t r???ng h??? c???n t??? 30 t???i 40 n??m h??a b??nh n???a th?? m???i b???t k???p v???i ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i. H??? ???? ??i ?????n k???t lu???n r???ng n???u h??? v???n gi??? nguy??n l??? tr??nh, tr??nh l??m ph???t l??ng c??c c?????ng qu???c hi???n t???i v?? k???t b???n v???i m???i n?????c, h??? s??? ch??? c??ng ng??y c??ng m???nh h??n. Vi???c n??y s??? cho h??? kh??ng gian ????? gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? n???i b??? v?? ti???p t???c ph??t tri???n kinh t???.

H??? c??ng quan t??m t???i nhu c???u tr??nh ??i v??o nh???ng v???t xe ????? c???a Nh???t B???n v?? ?????c. S??? tr???i d???y c???a ?????c v?? Nh???t ???? d???n ?????n m???t cu???c c???nh tranh quy???n l???c ??? ch??u ??u v?? ch??u ??, ???nh h?????ng v?? t??i nguy??n ???? d???n ?????n hai cu???c chi???n tranh kh???ng khi???p trong th??? k??? hai m????i, v?? ho??n to??n k???t li???u s??? tr???i d???y c???a h???. N???u Trung Qu???c tham gia v??o m???t cu???c chi???n, n?????c n??y s??? ph???i m???o hi???m ?????i m???t v???i b???t ???n n???i b???, xung ?????t v?? h???n lo???n, v?? c?? th??? l???i t???t l??i ??? m???t kho???ng l???n. Do v???y, v???i ng?????i Trung Qu???c, t??nh to??n c?? l?? tr?? s??? l?? ???Ch??ng ta ???? ch??? ?????i l??u nh?? v???y m???i c?? c?? h???i n??y ????? b???t k???p th??? gi???i ph??t tri???n. T???i sao l???i ph???i v???i v?? v?? g??y nguy h???i cho qu?? tr??nh tr???i d???y t??? t??? c???a ch??ng ta????

T???t nhi??n ??i???u ???? kh??ng c?? ngh??a l?? Trung Qu???c ch??? ????n thu???n nh?????ng b??? m???i khi c?? xung ?????t v???i n?????c kh??c. Khi c??n b???ng quy???n l???c thay ?????i, n?????c n??y s??? c??ng t??? do th??? hi???n nh???ng g?? h??? th??ch v?? kh??ng th??ch. V?? nh?? c???u Ngo???i tr?????ng D????ng Khi???t Tr?? t???ng n??i, ??? ????u m?? l???i ??ch c???t l??i c???a Trung Qu???c b??? ??e d???a th?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i t??? kh???ng ?????nh m??nh.

C??c l??ng gi???ng g???n g??i nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c ??? ch??u ?? ???? th??? n???m tr???i ??i???u n??y. V??o n??m 2008, Vi???t Nam trao cho c??ng ty d???u kh?? Exxon Mobil c???a M??? quy???n khoan d???u trong v??ng n?????c tranh ch???p ??? Bi???n Nam Trung Hoa (Bi???n ????ng). H???i qu??n Trung Qu???c ???? ????? ngh??? Exxon Mobil d???i ??i. Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c c??ng n??i r?? r???ng n???u th???a thu???n n??y ???????c ti???n h??nh, th?? vi???c l??m ??n c???a ExxonMobil ??? Trung Qu???c s??? b??? ??e d???a. V?? th??? l?? ExxonMobil ph???i d???i ??i b???i v?? h???i qu??n M??? kh??ng ??? ???? ????? h??? tr??? hay ?????m b???o quy???n c???a h???.

G???n ????y h??n, v??o n??m 2010, Nh???t B???n ???? b???t gi??? m???t thuy???n tr?????ng t??u c?? c???a Trung Qu???c sau khi t??u c???a ??ng ta va ch???m v???i t??u tu???n tra Nh???t B???n ??? ngo??i kh??i Qu???n ?????o Senkaku ??ang tranh ch???p, ???????c ng?????i Trung Qu???c g???i l?? qu???n ?????o ??i???u Ng??. Ban ?????u Nh???t B???n mu???n x??t x??? thuy???n tr?????ng n??y theo lu???t n?????c m??nh, nh???ng cu???i c??ng l???i ph???i nh?????ng b??? do ??p l???c n???ng n??? t??? ph??a Trung Qu???c v?? quy???t ?????nh th??? ??ng ta.

V??? vi???c cho th???y c??n b???ng quy???n l???c ???? thay ?????i nhi???u th??? n??o. Ng?????i Nh???t hi???n gi??? ph???i ?????i ph?? v???i m???t n?????c Trung Qu???c to g???p 10 l???n n?????c Nh???t, kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t n?????c Trung Qu???c m?? h??? c?? th??? x??m l?????c v?? g???n nh?? t??m g???n nh?? h???i Th??? chi???n th??? 2 n???a. S??? khu???t ph???c c???a Nh???t B???n ch??? l?? m???t s??? ch???p nh???n th???c t???i. H??? ???? hi???u ???????c r???ng h??? ph???i ?????i ph?? v???i m???t Trung Qu???c c?? t??? ch???c, c?? k??? lu???t ??? kh??ng ph???i v???i c??c l??nh ch??a c??t c???, m?? v???i m???t ch??nh quy???n trung ????ng c?? th??? h??nh ?????ng quy???t ??o??n.

Do v???y qua th???i gian, b???n c?? th??? th???y r???t r?? r??ng r???ng ng?????i Trung Qu???c kh??ng ph???i nh???ng ng?????i b??? ?????ng. H??? ch??? ?????ng theo ??u???i nh???ng y??u s??ch c???a m??nh, v?? h??? s??? ti???p t???c l??m th???. Ng?????i Trung Qu???c bi???t h??? l?? n?????c l???n nh???t trong khu v???c v?? r???ng khi h??? ng??y c??ng m???nh l??n, h??? c?? th??? ????i h???i c??c l??ng gi???ng t??n tr???ng quy???n c???a h??? h??n. Do ????, vi???c Hoa K??? duy tr?? s??? hi???n di???n ????ng k??? ??? khu v???c ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng ????? c??n b???ng v???i Trung Qu???c c??ng l?? l???i ??ch c???a c??c n?????c ch??u ?? kh??c, bao g???m c??? c??c n?????c ASEAN. N???u kh??ng c?? ?????i tr???ng t??? ph??a M???, c??c n?????c nh??? ??? ch??u ?? s??? ch???ng th??? c???a qu???y ???????c. Khi b???n c?? hai c??i c??y, ch??? kh??ng ph???i m???t, b???n c?? th??? ch???n ?????ng d?????i b??ng c??i c??y n??o. ??? l???i v??ng Th??i B??nh D????ng c??ng quan tr???ng v???i M???, b???i v?? n???u ng?????i M??? ????nh m???t th??? v?????t tr???i ??? ????y, h??? c??ng s??? m???t n?? tr??n to??n c???u.

Cu???c c???nh tranh gi??nh th??? ??u vi???t trong khu v???c gi???a M??? v?? Trung Qu???c ???? di???n ra r???i. V?? n?? s??? ti???p t???c trong ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? k??? 21. T???i khi ???y, quan h??? M???-Trung s??? l?? m???i quan h??? song ph????ng quan tr???ng nh???t tr??n th??? gi???i, kh??ng kh??c quan h??? M??? ??? X?? th???i Chi???n tranh L???nh. Trong v??i n??m sau s??? ki???n 11/9, n?????c M??? ???? b??? ph??n t??m b???i chi???n tranh ??? Iraq v?? Afghanistan, v?? Trung Qu???c ???? c?? th??? th???m l???ng t??ng c?????ng l???i ??ch trong khu v???c, l??m s??u s???c th??m c??c m???i quan h??? v?? k?? m???t th???a thu???n th????ng m???i t??? do v???i ASEAN.

Khi c???u th??? t?????ng Trung Qu???c Chu Dung C?? ????? xu???t v??? khu v???c th????ng m???i t??? do Trung Qu???c-ASEAN c??ch ????y m???t th???p k???, c??c ch??nh quy???n ASEAN ???? r???t kinh ng???c b???i v?? ch??ng t??i ngh?? r???ng Trung Qu???c r???t ng???n ng???i v???i vi???c m??? c???a n???n kinh t??? h??n n???a th??ng qua c??c th???a thu???n th????ng m???i t??? do song ph????ng v?? khu v???c. ???? l?? m???t b?????c ??i chi???n l?????c c???a ng?????i Trung Qu???c ????? ph??t tri???n c??c m???i quan h??? kinh t??? m???nh v???i ASEAN qua ???? ASEAN s??? xem s??? ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c l?? m???t c?? h???i ch??? kh??ng ph???i m???t m???i ??e d???a. T??i ???? n??i v???i ?????i di???n th????ng m???i M??? khi ???y r???ng n???u kh??ng c?? th???a thu???n th????ng m???i t??? do M???-ASEAN trong v??ng 10 t???i 20 n??m th?? n???n kinh t??? ASEAN s??? ng??y c??ng h???i nh???p v???i th??? tr?????ng Trung Qu???c, v?? M??? s??? tr??? th??nh th??? tr?????ng th??? y???u ?????i v???i ch??ng t??i.

V??? m???t qu??n s???, ng?????i M??? v???n c??n b??? xa trong cu???c ch??i. Ng??n s??ch qu???c ph??ng c???a Trung Qu???c, d?? ???? ?????t m???c t??ng tr?????ng h??ng n??m hai ch??? s???, v???n thua k??m ng??n s??ch qu???c ph??ng c???a M??? khi ch??? b???ng m???t ph???n s??u c???a h??? ??? v?? ??i???u n??y ???????c ph???n ??nh trong c??ng ngh??? qu??n s??? v?????t tr???i c???a ng?????i M???. R???t cu???c ng?????i Trung Qu???c s??? mu???n tr??? th??nh m???t c?????ng qu???c qu??n s??? m???nh nh?? M???. ??i???u n??y s??? t???n nhi???u th???p k???.

Nh??ng ng?????i Trung Qu???c ??ang l??m t???t c??? nh???ng g?? c?? th??? ????? ??u???i k???p. H??? ??ang c??? g???ng t????ng x???ng v???i M??? v??? m???t c??ng ngh??? cao ??? ????a ng?????i v??o v?? tr??? v?? ph??t tri???n m???t h??? th???ng GPS m?? M??? kh??ng th??? ph?? h???y hay v?? hi???u h??a. H??? bi???t r???ng n???u h??? ph??? thu???c v??o h??? th???ng GPS c???a M???, h??? s??? b??? qua m???t. V?? khi ng?????i Trung Qu???c ch???ng minh r???ng h??? c?? th??? t??? b???n h??? v??? tinh trong v?? tr??? v?? ????nh ch???n ch??nh c??c t??n l???a ?????n ?????o c???a m??nh, h??? mu???n g???i cho M??? m???t c???nh b??o: ???Anh kh??ng th??? ??e d???a t??i n???a. T??i s??? b???n h??? t??n l???a c???a anh tr??n Th??i B??nh D????ng.??? Ch??ng ta ??ang n??i v??? vi???c m???t c??i kim truy ??u???i m???t c??i kim kh??c ??ang di chuy???n tr??n b???u tr???i ??? ???? kh??ng ph???i l?? ki???u b???n cung ????n gi???n v??? m???t k?? thu???t. ???? l?? minh ch???ng r?? r??ng nh???t cho kh??? n??ng c???a h???.

C??ng l??c, t??i th???y ng?????i Trung Qu???c c??? g???ng gi??? v??ng duy??n h???i ph??a ????ng c???a h??? tho??t kh???i do th??m c???a M???. V??o th???i ??i???m hi???n t???i, ng?????i M??? ???? c?? th??? ti???p c???n ???????c ?????n c??ch b??? bi???n Trung Qu???c 12 h???i l?? v?? th??m d?? v??o trong (t??? ????). B??y gi???, th??? t?????ng t?????ng ??i???u ng?????c l???i. N???u h???i qu??n v?? kh??ng l???c Trung Qu???c ??? c??c t??u s??n bay c???a n?????c n??y ??? c??ng ?????n g???n b??? bi???n n?????c M??? m???t kho???ng t????ng t???, ng?????i M??? s??? th???y kh??ng th??? ch???p nh???n ???????c. H??? s??? kh??ng cho ph??p ??i???u ???? x???y ra. Gi??? b???n c?? th??? t?????ng t?????ng ng?????i Trung Qu???c c???m th???y th??? n??o.

Nh??ng ????? c?? kh??? n??ng ?????y ng?????i M??? ra xa kh???i b??? bi???n c???a m??nh, h??? ph???i c???i thi???n c??ng ngh??? c???a c??c t??n l???a t???m xa. Khi b???n ???? l??m ???????c ??i???u ????, m???i ??e d???a ng???m l?? n???u ai ???? ?????n qu?? g???n, b???n s??? ph??ng t??n l???a ????nh ch??m t??u s??n bay hay b???n r??i m??y bay c???a k??? ????. V??o th???i ??i???m hi???n t???i, Trung Qu???c ch??a th??? l??m ???????c ??i???u n??y. ?????n l??c h??? l??m ???????c, m??y bay (c???a M???) s??? ??? ngo??i t???m v???i. Ng?????i M??? s??? ch???ng tr??ng ch??? v??o v???n may. V?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c s??? n??i ???????y l?? v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? c???a t??i, (anh) c??? ??? ngo??i. T??i kh??ng ??i ?????n b??? bi???n ph??a Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a anh, th??? th?? ai cho anh quy???n t???i ????y???? Li???u ng?????i M??? c?? n??i ???kh??ng???? Cu???i c??ng, l??? ph???i thu???c v??? k??? m???nh.

Do ???? cu???i c??ng, s??? c?? c??n b???ng ??? c??n c??n ???????c c??n b???ng d???n trong v??ng 20 hay 30 n??m. S??? c??n b???ng ?????u ti??n s??? ?????y ng?????i M??? ra kh???i gi???i h???n 12 h???i l??. S??? c??n b???ng th??? hai s??? ?????y h??? ra kh???i v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? 200 h???i l??. V?? m???t khi h??? (Trung Qu???c) c?? th??? l??m th???, h??? s??? tr??? th??nh c?????ng qu???c c?? ???nh h?????ng nh???t trong khu v???c.

M???t v??i h???c gi??? d??? ??o??n d???a tr??n l???ch s??? r???ng khi m???t c?????ng qu???c tr???i d???y v?? si??u c?????ng hi???n h???u th???y s??? th???ng tr??? c???a m??nh b??? ??e d???a, xung ?????t qu??n s??? gi???a hai b??n r???t c?? kh??? n??ng x???y ra n???u kh??ng n??i l?? kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i. Trong tr?????ng h???p Trung Qu???c v?? M???, t??i kh??ng ?????ng ?? v???i h???. Hai b??n ch???ng c?? l???i ??ch g?? khi ?????i m???t v???i nhau tr??n chi???n tr?????ng. C??? hai n?????c ?????u c?? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, v?? v???y h??? bi???t c?? kh??? n??ng d???n t???i k???t c???c h???y di???t kh???ng khi???p. H??n n???a, kh??ng gi???ng v???i quan h??? X??-M???, hi???n nay ch???ng c?? xung ?????t v??? ?? th???c h??? kh???c li???t, kh??ng th??? h??a gi???i ???????c gi???a ng?????i M??? v?? m???t Trung Qu???c ???? r???t nhi???t t??nh ???ng h??? th??? tr?????ng t??? do. Ng?????i Trung Qu???c c???n quan h??? th??n thi???n v???i M??? ????? ?????m b???o ti???p t???c ???????c ti???p c???n th??? tr?????ng, ?????u t??, c??ng ngh??? v?? c??c tr?????ng ?????i h???c c???a n?????c n??y. C??n M??? th?? ????n gi???n l?? kh??ng c?? nhu c???u bi???n Trung Qu???c th??nh m???t k??? th?? l??u d??i.

Cu???c kh???ng ho???ng l???n nh???t c?? th??? ph??t sinh gi???a hai n?????c l?? v???n ????? ????i Loan. Nh??ng t??i kh??ng ngh?? M??? s??? g??y chi???n v???i Trung Qu???c ????? b???o v??? s??? ?????c l???p c???a ????i Loan. ??i???u ???? kh??ng ????ng. B???n c?? th??? chi???n ?????u v?? th???ng v??ng m???t. Nh??ng li???u ng?????i M??? c?? chu???n b??? ????? chi???n ?????u h???t v??ng n??y ?????n v??ng kh??c? Li???u cu???i c??ng h??? c?? chu???n b??? ????? tr??? c??i gi?? m?? Trung Qu???c s???n s??ng tr??? v?? ????i Loan? Xin nh??? r???ng kh??ng c?? l??nh ?????o n??o c???a Trung Qu???c c?? th??? t???n t???i n???u ????? m???t ????i Loan trong nhi???m k?? c???a m??nh. Do v???y, v???i ng?????i Trung Qu???c, ????y l?? v???n ????? r???t nghi??m tr???ng.

K??? c??? khi h??? thua v??ng ?????u ti??n, h??? s??? tr??? l???i v???i v??ng hai, r???i v??ng ba v?? v??ng b???n ??? kh??ng ng???ng kh??ng ngh???, cho t???i khi h??? th???ng. ??i???u n??y kh??ng ????ng gi?? v???i M???. Qua th???i gian ng?????i ????i Loan s??? nh???n ra ??i???u n??y, n???u hi???n gi??? h??? v???n ch??a hi???u ra. M?? Anh C???u ???? g???n nh?? n??i th???ng ra ??i???u n??y v???i kh???u hi???u ???b???t th???ng, b???t ?????c, b???t v????? (bu tong, bu du, bu wu) ??? Kh??ng th???ng nh???t, kh??ng ?????c l???p, kh??ng s??? d???ng v?? l???c. C???m t??? c???t y???u l?? kh??ng ?????c l???p, b???i v?? kh??ng nghi ng??? g?? n???a ngay th???i ??i???m ????i Loan tuy??n b??? ?????c l???p, Trung Qu???c s??? vi???n ?????n v?? l???c ????? gi??nh l???i h??n ?????o n??y.

Th???ng nh???t ????i Loan v?? ?????i l???c ch??? l?? v???n ????? th???i gian. Kh??ng qu???c gia n??o c?? th??? ng??n c???n ??i???u n??y. Th???c t???, s??? ph???n qu???c t??? c???a ????i Loan ???? ???????c x??c ?????nh t??? l??u ??? H???i ngh??? Cairo n??m 1943 khi Franklin D. Roosevelt v?? Winston Churchill ?????ng ?? v???i T???ng t?? l???nh T?????ng Gi???i Th???ch v??? vi???c tr??? ????i Loan v??? v???i Trung Qu???c. Khi L?? ????ng Huy l??n l??m T???ng th???ng, ??ng ???? b???t ?????u m???t qu?? tr??nh ????i Loan h??a ??? t???p trung v??o vi???c t??ch r???i h??n ?????o n??y kh???i Trung Qu???c. Nh??ng ??i???u n??y s??? kh??ng thay ?????i k???t c???c th???ng nh???t cu???i c??ng. T??c d???ng c???a vi???c n??y ch??? l?? khi???n ng?????i ????i Loan c??ng t???n th????ng h??n khi h???p nh???t th???c s??? x???y ra. Kinh t??? s??? gi???i quy???t v???n ????? n??y. S??? h???p nh???t v??? kinh t??? d???n d???n v?? kh??ng ng???ng s??? mang hai x?? h???i l???i g???n nhau, v?? Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng th???y c???n thi???t ph???i d??ng v?? l???c.

Hi???n gi??? quan h??? kinh t??? hai b??n ???? ph??t tri???n d?????i s??? c???m quy???n c???a T???ng th???ng M?? v?? s??? ti???p t???c ph??t tri???n trong b???n n??m t???i. V?? sau th???i k?? 8 n??m d?????i quy???n Qu???c D??n ?????ng, c??? cho r???ng ?????ng D??n ti???n s??? l???i n???m quy???n v?? ?????o ng?????c ch??nh s??ch, th?? c??c n??ng d??n v?? nh?? c??ng nghi???p ????i Loan c??ng s??? ph???i ch???u h???u qu???, v?? DPP s??? th???t b???i trong k?? b???u c??? sau ????, ho???c sau ???? n???a. S??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau ng??y c??ng t??ng s??? khi???n cho vi???c ????i Loan ti???n t???i ?????c l???p l?? b???t kh??? thi.

07/06/1893: Gandhi l???n ?????u ti???n h??nh b???t tu??n d??n s???

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Ngu???n: ???Gandhi???s first act of civil disobedience,??? History.com (truy c???p ng??y 06/6/2015).

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng

Ng??y m??ng 7 th??ng 6 n??m 1893, trong m???t s??? ki???n c?? ???nh h?????ng ????ng k??? t???i ng?????i d??n ???n ????? sau n??y, Mohandas K. Gandhi, m???t lu???t s?? tr??? ng?????i ???n ????? ??ang l??m vi???c ??? Nam Phi, ???? t??? ch???i tu??n th??? c??c quy ?????nh mang t??nh ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c tr??n m???t chuy???n t??u ??? Nam Phi, sau ???? b??? ??u???i kh???i t??u ??? th??nh ph??? Pietermaritzburg.

Sinh ra ??? ???n ????? nh??ng theo h???c t???i Anh, ?????u n??m 1893, Gandhi ?????n Nam Phi ????? h??nh ngh??? lu???t theo h???p ?????ng k??o d??i m???t n??m. C?? tr?? ??? Natal, ??ng ph???i ch???u s??? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c v?? nh???ng quy ?????nh ph??p lu???t c???a Nam Phi h???n ch??? quy???n l???i c???a ng?????i lao ?????ng ???n ?????. Sau n??y nh??? l???i, Gandhi ???? g???i th???i kh???c m?? ??ng b??? bu???c ph???i r???i kh???i toa xe l???a h???ng nh???t v?? sau ???? b??? n??m ra kh???i chuy???n t??u h??m m??ng 7 th??ng 6 l?? th???i kh???c quy???t ?????nh c???a ??ng. T??? ???? tr??? ??i, ??ng quy???t t??m ch???ng l???i s??? b???t c??ng v?? b???o v??? nh???ng quy???n l???i c???a m??nh trong vai tr?? m???t ng?????i ???n ????? n??i ri??ng v?? m???t con ng?????i n??i chung.

Khi h???p ?????ng h???t h???n, ??ng quy???t ?????nh ??? l???i Nam Phi v?? v???n ?????ng m???t chi???n d???ch ch???ng l???i m???t d??? th???o lu???t t?????c ??i quy???n b???u c??? c???a ng?????i di d??n ???n ?????. ??ng th??nh l???p H???i ngh??? d??n t???c ???n ??? Natal v?? thu h??t s??? ch?? ?? c???a qu???c t??? v??? t??nh c???nh c???a ng?????i ???n ????? ??? Nam Phi. N??m 1906, ch??nh quy???n Transvaal t??m c??ch h???n ch??? h??n n???a quy???n l???i c???a ng?????i ???n ?????, sau ???? Gandhi ???? t??? ch???c chi???n d???ch satyagraha, hay b???t tu??n d??n s??? ?????i ch??ng, ?????u ti??n c???a m??nh. Sau b???y n??m ?????u tranh, ??ng ???? ?????t ???????c m???t th???a thu???n th???a hi???p v???i ch??nh ph??? Nam Phi.

N??m 1914, Gandhi tr??? l???i ???n ?????. Tuy ???ng h??? ng?????i Anh trong Th??? chi???n th??? nh???t, ??ng ???? ph??t ?????ng m???t cu???c satyagraha m???i ????? ph???n ?????i d??? th???o lu???t qu??n d???ch b???t bu???c c???a Anh ?????i v???i ng?????i ???n ????? trong n??m 1919. H??ng tr??m ng??n ng?????i ???? h?????ng ???ng l???i k??u g???i c???a ??ng, v?? ?????n n??m 1920, ??ng tr??? th??nh l??nh ?????o c???a phong tr??o ?????c l???p ???n ?????. Lu??n ???ng h??? ?????u tranh b???t b???o ?????ng, ??ng kh???ng ?????nh s??? ??o??n k???t c???a m???i ng?????i d?????i m???t Thi??n ch??a v?? rao gi???ng ?????o ?????c Kit?? gi??o v?? H???i gi??o b??n c???nh gi??o l?? ???n ????? gi??o c???a m??nh. C??c nh?? ch???c tr??ch Anh ???? nhi???u l???n b???t giam ??ng, nh??ng d?????i s???c ??p to l???n c???a nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h???, ??ng ?????u ???????c th???.

Sau Th??? chi???n th??? hai, ??ng l?? nh??n v???t h??ng ?????u trong c??c cu???c ????m ph??n ????a ???n ????? ?????n ?????c l???p n??m 1947. D?? ca ng???i vi???c trao tr??? ?????c l???p cho ???n ????? l?? ???h??nh ?????ng cao qu?? nh???t c???a n?????c Anh,??? ??ng ???? ??au kh??? tr?????c s??? chia r??? t??n gi??o th??nh hai v??ng ???n ????? v?? Pakistan c???a ????? qu???c Mogul c??. Khi b???o l???c n??? ra gi???a ng?????i ???n ????? gi??o v?? ng?????i H???i gi??o ??? ???n ????? n??m 1947, Gandhi ???? th???c h??nh chay t???nh v?? ?????n th??m nh???ng khu v???c b???t ???n ????? c??? g???ng ch???m d???t cu???c xung ?????t t??n gi??o c???a ???n ?????. Ng??y 30 th??ng 1 n??m 1948, tr??n ???????ng t???i m???t l??? c???u nguy???n ??? New Delhi, Gandhi ???? b??? b???n ch???t b???i Nathuram Godse, m???t t??n ????? ???n ????? gi??o c???c ??oan ph???n ?????i l??ng khoan dung c???a ??ng d??nh cho ng?????i H???i gi??o.

???????c bi???t ?????n d?????i t??n Mahatma, c?? ngh??a l?? ???linh h???n v?? ?????i,??? trong su???t cu???c ?????i m??nh, ph????ng ph??p b???t tu??n d??n s??? c???a Gandhi ???? c?? ???nh h?????ng t???i nhi???u nh?? l??nh ?????o phong tr??o d??n quy???n tr??n to??n th??? gi???i, ?????c bi???t l?? m???c s?? Martin Luther King ??? Hoa K???.

???nh: Mahatma Gandhi t???i Anh n??m 1913. Ngu???n: The Telegraph.

07/08/1964: Qu???c h???i M??? th??ng qua Ngh??? quy???t v???nh B???c B???

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Ngu???n: ???Congress passes Gulf of Tonkin Resolution,??? History.com(truy c???p ng??y 06/8/2015).

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1964, Qu???c h???i Hoa K??? ???? ch???p thu???n m???t c??ch ??p ?????o[1] Ngh??? quy???t v???nh B???c B???, cho T???ng th???ng Lyndon B. Johnson th???m quy???n g???n nh?? kh??ng b??? gi???i h???n ????? ng??n ch???n ???s??? x??m l??ng c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n??? ??? ????ng Nam ??. Ngh??? quy???t v???nh B???c B??? ????nh d???u s??? kh???i ?????u c???a m???t vai tr?? qu??n s??? ???????c m??? r???ng c???a Hoa K??? tr??n c??c m???t tr???n Chi???n tranh L???nh ??? Vi???t Nam, L??o, v?? Campuchia.

?????n n??m 1964, ?????ng minh c???a M??? l?? Vi???t Nam C???ng H??a ??ang c?? nguy c?? s???p ????? tr?????c m???t cu???c n???i d???y c???a c??c l???c l?????ng c???ng s???n. C??c ph???n t??? n???i d???y ???????c c???ng s???n B???c Vi???t h??? tr??? ???? ki???m so??t ???????c m???t khu v???c r???ng l???n ??? mi???n Nam Vi???t Nam, v?? d?????ng nh?? M??? c?? vi???n tr??? qu??n s??? v?? ????o t???o ?????n m???y th?? c??ng kh??ng th??? c???u v??n ???????c ch??? ????? Vi???t Nam C???ng H??a.

Trong su???t c??c nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng c???a m??nh, Dwight D. Eisenhower v?? John F. Kennedy ???? g???i h??ng tr??m v?? sau ???? l?? h??ng ng??n c??? v???n qu??n s??? M??? ?????n mi???n Nam Vi???t Nam ????? ????o t???o l???c l?????ng qu??n s??? cho ch??? ????? n??y. Ngo??i ra c??n c?? h??ng tr??m tri???u ???? la ti???n vi???n tr??? qu??n s??? v?? kinh t??? ???? ???????c trao cho Vi???t Nam C???ng H??a. Ch??nh quy???n c???a T???ng th???ng Lyndon B. Johnson ???? quy???t ?????nh r???ng ch??? c?? s??? can thi???p qu??n s??? tr???c ti???p c???a M??? v??o cu???c xung ?????t m???i c?? th??? ?????o ng?????c l??n s??ng s???p ????? c???a Nam Vi???t Nam.

Tuy nhi??n, khi tham gia v???n ?????ng tranh c??? trong cu???c b???u c??? t???ng th???ng n??m 1964, Johnson ???? t??? ra l?? m???t ???ng c??? vi??n ???c?? tr??ch nhi???m??? v?? s??? kh??ng g???i qu??n ?????i M??? ?????n chi???n ?????u v?? hi sinh ??? ch??u ??. Nh??ng ?????n ?????u th??ng 8, m???t lo???t c??c s??? ki???n x???y ra ???? cho ph??p Johnson th??? hi???n t??i n??ng qu???n tr??? qu???c gia c???a m??nh v?? ?????ng th???i m??? r???ng vai tr?? c???a M??? trong Chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam.

Ng??y m??ng 2 th??ng 8, (M??? c??o bu???c r???ng) c??c t??u ph??ng ng?? l??i c???a B???c Vi???t ???? t???n c??ng m???t t??u khu tr???c M??? ??? v???nh B???c B???.[2] Johnson ????p tr??? b???ng c??ch g???i m???t t??u khu tr???c kh??c ?????n ????y. Ng??y m??ng 4 th??ng 8, hai t??u khu tr???c c???a M??? b??o c??o r???ng h??? ???? b??? t???n c??ng.[3] L???n n??y, Johnson ???????c ???y quy???n ti???n h??nh c??c cu???c kh??ng k??ch nh???m tr??? ????a mi???n B???c Vi???t Nam. ??ng c??ng ????? ngh??? Qu???c h???i th??ng qua Ngh??? quy???t v???nh B???c B???.

Ngh??? quy???t n??y tuy??n b??? r???ng ???Hoa K??? coi vi???c duy tr?? h??a b??nh v?? an ninh ??? khu v???c ????ng Nam ?? l?? t???i quan tr???ng ?????i v???i l???i ??ch qu???c gia c???a Hoa K??? v?? ?????i v???i n???n h??a b??nh th??? gi???i.??? N?? c??ng cho Johnson quy???n ???s??? d???ng m???i bi???n ph??p c???n thi???t ????? ?????y l??i b???t c??? cu???c t???n c??ng v?? trang n??o nh???m v??o c??c l???c l?????ng c???a Hoa K??? v?? ????? ng??n ch???n s??? x??m l??ng h??n n???a (c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n).??? H??? vi???n M??? ???? nh???t tr?? th??ng qua ngh??? quy???t n??y; n?? c??ng ???????c Th?????ng vi???n th??ng qua v???i 88 phi???u thu???n tr??n 2 phi???u ch???ng. S??? ???ng h??? d??nh cho Johnson ???? gia t??ng sau c??ch x??? l?? kh???ng ho???ng ???th???n tr???ng??? n??y c???a ??ng.

Ch??nh quy???n Johnson ???? s??? d???ng ngh??? quy???t n??y nh?? m???t c??i c??? ????? b???t ?????u ti???n h??nh n??m bom mi???n B???c Vi???t Nam v??o ?????u n??m 1965 v?? ????a qu??n ?????i M??? v??o chi???n ?????u t??? th??ng 3 c??ng n??m. T??? ???? b???t ?????u m???t cu???c chi???n k??o d??i g???n 8 n??m, khi???n h??n 58.000 binh s?? M??? thi???t m???ng. N??i r???ng h??n, Ngh??? quy???t V???nh B???c B??? c?? th??? ???????c coi l?? ch??nh s??ch Chi???n tranh L???nh c???a M??? ?????i v???i t???t c??? c??c n?????c ????ng Nam ?? v??o th???i ??i???m ????.

Ngh??? quy???t n??y c??ng l?? m???t v?? d??? kh??c cho th???y ch??nh ph??? M??? ???? kh??ng th???o lu???n th???ng th???n v??? c??c v???n ????? ???an ninh qu???c gia??? trong Chi???n tranh L???nh. Vi???c c??c ch??? huy c???a t??u khu tr???c M??? kh??ng th??? x??c nh???n v???i ????? ch??nh x??c tuy???t ?????i r???ng t??u c???a h??? th???c s??? ???? b??? t???n c??ng v??o ????m m??ng 4 th??ng 8 ???? kh??ng ???????c ????a ra trong cu???c tranh lu???n c???a Qu???c h???i v??? ngh??? quy???t n??y; vi???c c??c t??u khu tr???c M??? ??ang h??? tr??? l??nh Nam Vi???t Nam trong c??c cu???c t???n c??ng c???a h??? nh???m v??o c??c c??n c??? qu??n s??? B???c Vi???t c??ng kh??ng ???????c ????? c???p t???i.

Cu???i th???p ni??n 1960, nh???ng tr?? m??u m???o v?? l???a d???i c???a ch??nh ph??? M??? b???t ?????u s??ng t??? khi l??ng tin c???a d??n ch??ng t???ng d??nh cho Johnson v?? c??c n??? l???c qu??n s??? c???a M??? ??? Vi???t Nam ???? b???t ?????u x??i m??n.

???nh: T???ng th???ng Johnson k?? Ngh??? quy???t v???nh B???c B??? trong Ph??ng ph??a ????ng c???a Nh?? Tr???ng ng??y 10/08/1965. Ngu???n: The National Archives <www.archives.gov>.

???????????????????????????

[1] Ngh??? quy???t n??y ???????c ????a ra H??? vi???n b??? phi???u v???i t??n g???i ???Ngh??? quy???t chung ????? th??c ?????y vi???c duy tr?? h??a b??nh v?? an ninh ??? ????ng Nam ??,??? nh???n ???????c 416 phi???u thu???n, 9 phi???u tr???ng tr??n t???ng s??? 431 phi???u (t??nh c??? 6 h??? ngh??? s?? v???ng m???t) ??? ND.

[2] Theo m???t s??? t??i li???u, t??u khu tr???c USS Maddox c???a M??? ???? ?????ng ????? v???i ba t??u ph??ng ng?? l??i c???a h???i qu??n mi???n B???c Vi???t Nam. C??? hai b??n ?????u x??c nh???n c?? s??? ki???n (???????c g???i l?? S??? ki???n v???nh B???c B??? l???n th??? nh???t) n??y ??? ND.

[3] Ban ?????u M??? tuy??n b??? ????y l?? m???t cu???c h???i chi???n, nh??ng B???c Vi???t Nam ph??? nh???n m???i li??n quan. C??c t??i li???u c???a M??? sau n??y ???? x??c nh???n cu???c t???n c??ng n??y l?? kh??ng c?? th???t, m?? c?? th??? ch??? l?? c??c t??n hi???u ra-??a l???i ??? ND.

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