T???m nh??n d??i h???n gi??p Trung Qu???c t??? tin ?????i ?????u M????

Thứ hai - 29/07/2019 20:30
M???t v??i th??ng tr?????c, khi ??i th??m t???nh Giang T??y, Ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c T???p C???n B??nh ???? ????? c???p ?????n m???t c???t m???c c??ch m???ng c??. ???B??y gi??? l???i c?? m???t cu???c Tr?????ng Chinh m???i, v?? ch??ng ta n??n b???t ?????u m???t kh???i ?????u m???i???, ??ng n??i nh?? v???y v??? cu???c xung ?????t kinh t??? gia t??ng v???i Hoa K???.
T???m nh??n d??i h???n gi??p Trung Qu???c t??? tin ?????i ?????u M????

T???m nh??n d??i h???n gi??p Trung Qu???c t??? tin ?????i ?????u M????

Ngu???n: Stephen S. Roach, ???China???s Long View???, Project Syndicate, 26/07/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

M???t v??i th??ng tr?????c, khi ??i th??m t???nh Giang T??y, Ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c T???p C???n B??nh ???? ????? c???p ?????n m???t c???t m???c c??ch m???ng c??. ???B??y gi??? l???i c?? m???t cu???c Tr?????ng Chinh m???i, v?? ch??ng ta n??n b???t ?????u m???t kh???i ?????u m???i???, ??ng n??i nh?? v???y v??? cu???c xung ?????t kinh t??? gia t??ng v???i Hoa K???.

??? Trung Qu???c, t??nh bi???u t?????ng th?????ng quan tr???ng h??n vi???c gi???i th??ch theo ngh??a ??en c??c ph??t bi???u c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o. Ph??t bi???u t???i c??ng m???t t???nh n??i cu???c V???n l?? tr?????ng chinh b???t ?????u v??o n??m 1934, cu???i c??ng d???n ?????n chi???n th???ng c???a Mao tr?????c Qu???c d??n ?????ng 15 n??m sau ????, l???i nh???c nh??? c???a T???p nh???n m???nh s???c m???nh l???n nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c, ???? l?? t???m nh??n d??i h???n.

S???c m???nh ???? ???? ???????c th??? hi???n trong chuy???n th??m Trung Qu???c m???i nh???t c???a t??i v??o ?????u th??ng B???y. Sau m???t lo???t c??c cu???c h???p v?? th???o lu???n, t??i c?? th??? ????a ra ba k???t lu???n. M???i k???t lu???n trong s??? ???? ?????u th??ch th???c c??ch l?????ng ?????ng ??? M??? ????ng ?????c qu??? h??a??? Trung Qu???c.

Th??? nh???t, t??ng tr?????ng ch???m l???i kh??ng ph???i l?? l?? do cho s??? s??? h??i ?????i v???i c??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c nh?? nhi???u nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch ph????ng T??y v???n ngh??. ????ng, n???u so v???i qu?? kh???, b??o c??o v??? t??ng tr?????ng GDP m???i nh???t l?? y???u: t??ng tr?????ng h??ng qu?? xu???ng m???c ch???m nh???t k??? t??? khi h??? th???ng b??o c??o th???ng k?? hi???n t???i ???????c th??ng qua v??o n??m 1992, v?? th???m ch?? c??n t???i t??? h??n so v???i ghi nh???n m???t th???p ni??n tr?????c khi ??ang di???n ra cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh to??n c???u. Nh??ng t??? l??? 6,2% trong qu?? 2 n??m 2019 l?? m???c gi???m t????ng ?????i nh??? (0,5%) so v???i t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng trung b??nh 6,7% c???a t??m qu?? tr?????c ????. Ng?????c l???i, vi???c gi???m xu???ng c??n 6,6% trong qu?? ?????u n??m 2009 l?? m???t s??? gi???m t???c ?????t ng???t, m???t t???i 5,5% so v???i t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng trung b??nh 12,1% trong t??m qu?? tr?????c ????. M???t s??? gi???m t???c v???a ph???i kh??ng ph???i l?? s??? s???p ????? t??ng tr?????ng nh?? nhi???u ng?????i t?????ng t?????ng.

??i???u ???? c??ng kh??ng ????ng ng???c nhi??n. Trung Qu???c c?? nhi???u ????n b???y ch??nh s??ch h??n so v???i c??c th??ch th???c t??ng tr?????ng. V???n c??n d?? ?????a ????? n???i l???ng ti???n t??? h??n n???a, c??ng nh?? chi ti??u cho c?? s??? h??? t???ng v?? c??c h??nh th???c k??ch th??ch t??i kh??a kh??c, do ???? ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c ??t quan t??m ?????n m???t ???tai n???n??? t??ng tr?????ng b???t ng??? nh?? quan ??i???m c???a M??? v???n th?????ng n??i.

H??n n???a, vi???c Washington nh???n m???nh v??? vi???c ai s??? th???ng trong cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i b??? qua m???t s??? thay ?????i c???u tr??c c???c k??? quan tr???ng trong n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c. N??m 2018, xu???t kh???u r??ng ch??? t????ng ??????ng 0,8% GDP c???a Trung Qu???c, cho th???y m???t m???c thu h???p ????ng k??? so v???i m???t th???p ni??n tr?????c khi xu???t kh???u r??ng t????ng ??????ng 7,5% GDP th???c t???. M???c d?? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t ???c ?????o b??nh y??n trong m???t n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u ??ang d???n suy y???u, nh??ng Trung Qu???c ng??y nay c??ng ??t b??? ???nh h?????ng b???i c??c c?? s???c th????ng m???i so v???i tr?????c ????y. Ngay c??? khi thua cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i ??? m???t kh??? n??ng v???n c??n g??y tranh c??i ??? th?? thi???t h???i ?????i v???i t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? n??i chung c???a Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng ????ng k???.

?????ng th???i, s??? ????? v??? c???a Ng??n h??ng Baoshang ng??y 24 th??ng 5 ??? l???n ?????u ti??n m???t ng??n h??ng s???p ????? t???i Trung Qu???c trong kho???ng 20 n??m qua ??? ???? g??y ra nguy c?? l??y lan r???i ro sang c??c ng??n h??ng kh??c. V???i vi???c c??c kho???n n??? x???u t??ng l??n h??n 30% t???ng c??c kho???n cho vay, ng??n h??ng t?? nh??n h???ng trung c???a khu v???c N???i M??ng n??y r?? r??ng l?? n???n nh??n c???a t??nh tr???ng tham nh??ng. Vi???c c??c nh?? qu???n l?? t??i ch??nh c??ng ng??n h??ng nh?? n?????c ti???p qu???n c?? ph???i h???p ng??n h??ng n??y ???? gi??p ki???m so??t c??c thi???t h???i tr???c ti???p, ?????ng th???i g???i ??i m???t c???nh b??o r???i ro ?????o ?????c quan tr???ng ?????n nh???ng ng??n h??ng k??? lu???t k??m kh??c. Nh??ng th??? tr?????ng cho vay li??n ng??n h??ng v???n c??n rung l???c, v???i t??c ?????ng lan t???a ?????n c??c ng??n h??ng nh??? h??n, bao g???m c??? nh???ng ng??n h??ng ??? khu v???c n??ng th??n. ??i???u tr??? tr??u l?? Trung Qu???c d?????ng nh?? c?? th??? qu???n l?? c??c r???i ro th????ng m???i t???t h??n l?? qu???n l?? s??? b???t ???n trong h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh c???a h???.

K???t lu???n th??? hai c?? th??? r??t ra t??? c??c cu???c th???o lu???n g???n ????y c???a t??i l?? Trung Qu???c ki??n nh???n v?? c?? ph????ng ph??p trong vi???c ?????i ph?? v???i c??c bi???n s??? b??n ngo??i ??? ?????c bi???t l?? ch??nh tr??? Hoa K???. C??c quan ch???c Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng ?????t c?????c v??o cu???c b???u c??? t???ng th???ng M??? n??m 2020 khi x??y d???ng ph???n ???ng chi???n l?????c ?????i v???i cu???c xung ?????t th????ng m???i. R?? r??ng, Trung Qu???c r???t quan t??m ?????n k???t qu??? b???u c???; nh??ng tu??n theo quan ??i???m ???Tr?????ng chinh??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh, l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c ??ang chu???n b??? cho m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u k??o d??i ki???u Chi???n tranh L???nh, b???t k??? ai s??? th???ng trong cu???c b???u c??? ????.

??i???u ????ng k??? l?? nhi???u quan ch???c c???p cao c???a Trung Qu???c kh??ng chia s??? quan ??i???m r???ng kh???p t???i Hoa K??? r???ng qu??? ?????o ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c c???a M??? sau n??m 2020 s??? kh??ng thay ?????i ??? d?? Donald Trump c?? th???ng c??? hay kh??ng. Trong tr?????ng h???p Trump thua, ng?????i Trung Qu???c tin r???ng ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a M??? s??? quay tr??? l???i m???t c??ch ti???p c???n ??a ph????ng v?? t???p trung v??o c??c li??n minh h??n. Hy v???ng l???n nh???t c???a h??? l?? kh??i ph???c t??nh to??n v???n, truy???n th???ng ?????i v???i qu?? tr??nh ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch c???a M???.

Gi???ng nh?? nhi???u ng?????i ??? M???, ng?????i Trung Qu???c c??ng th???y kh?? ?????i ph?? v???i nh???ng s??? thay ?????i kh?? l?????ng, g???n nh?? v?? l??, li??n quan ?????n thu??? quan v?? c??c bi???n ph??p tr???ng ph???t. Ngay c??? khi m???t t???ng th???ng m???i v???n ki??n quy???t ch???ng Trung Qu???c, m???t chi???n l?????c ch???t ch??? v?? r?? r??ng h??n c???a Hoa K??? c??ng s??? gi??p ?????nh h??nh t???t h??n cu???c tranh lu???n v?? mang l???i hy v???ng gi???i quy???t c??c b???t ?????ng m???t c??ch mang t??nh x??y d???ng.

Th??? ba, Huawei l?? m???t v???n ????? l???n ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c. Ng?????i kh???ng l??? c??ng ngh??? n??y ???????c coi l?? m???t ???n???m ?????m th??p??? c???a qu???c gia v?? l?? bi???u t?????ng cho n??? l???c c???a Trung Qu???c h?????ng t???i ?????i m???i b???n ?????a, l?? trung t??m c???a tham v???ng ph??t tri???n v?? t??ng tr?????ng d??i h???n c???a B???c Kinh. B???ng c??ch l???i d???ng c??c ?????i???m ngh???n??? trong chu???i cung ???ng c???a Huawei, chi???n d???ch ng??n ch???n Trung Qu???c c???a Trump ???????c coi l?? ??ang t??m c??ch k??m h??m nh???ng kh??t v???ng ????.

Kh??ng c?? g?? ph???i b??n c??i khi Huawei c???m nh???n ???????c s???c n??ng khi M??? si???t ch???t chu???i cung ???ng b???ng c??ch g??y ??p l???c l??n c??c nh?? cung c???p chip b??n d???n, linh ki???n v?? ph???n m???m h??ng ?????u c???a M??? ??? c??c c??ng ty nh?? AMD, IBM, Marvell, Intel, Google v?? Microsoft . Theo ban qu???n l?? c???a Huawei, doanh thu c???a c??ng ty trong n??m nay s??? gi???m kho???ng 30 t??? ???? la so v???i d??? ki???n.

Trong khi c??c quan ch???c c???p cao c???a M??? g???i t??n hi???u m??u thu???n nhau v??? vi???c n???i l???ng c??c h???n ch??? ?????i v???i Huawei, th?? vi???c ???v?? kh?? h??a??? ch??nh s??ch th????ng m???i c???a M??? ???? g???i m???t th??ng ??i???p r?? r??ng t???i Trung Qu???c: vi???c gi???i quy???t c??c ??i???m y???u trong chu???i cung ???ng c???a c??c c??ng ty c??ng ngh??? h??ng ?????u l?? ??u ti??n ch??nh s??ch hi???n nay.

C??c quan ??i???m ph??? bi???n ??? ph????ng T??y cho r???ng Trung Qu???c s??? c???n m?????i n??m ????? x??y d???ng m???t ng??nh c??ng nghi???p ph???n m???m ho???c m???t con chip trong n?????c nh???m l???p ?????y kho???ng tr???ng ???????c t???o ra b???i c??c bi???n ph??p tr???ng ph???t c???a Hoa K???. Nh??ng nh???ng ng?????i Trung Qu???c t??i n??i chuy???n c??ng h???i ?????u th??ng 7 c???m th???y r???ng l??? h???ng ???? c?? th??? ???????c b???t k??n s???m h??n nhi???u, c?? th??? trong v??ng hai n??m. Nh???ng ??e d???a Trump ????a ra ch???ng l???i Huawei d?????ng nh?? ???? ????ng vai tr?? nh?? m???t h???i chu??ng c???nh t???nh cho chi???n d???ch t??? l???c t??? c?????ng c???a T???p. ????n b??p ngh???t c???a Hoa K??? c?? th??? di???n ra ng???n ng???i m???t c??ch ????ng ng???c nhi??n.

H???t l???n n??y ?????n l???n kh??c, t???m nh??n d??i h???n c???a Trung Qu???c tr??i ng?????c ho??n to??n v???i c??ch ti???p c???n ng???n h???n c???a M???. Kh??ng c???n ph???i n??i, ??i???u n??y ???? tr??? n??n r?? r??ng h??n trong su???t hai n??m r?????i qua v???i nh???ng canh b???c ch??nh s??ch m?? Trump th???c hi???n tr??n Twitter. M???t nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch c???p cao c???a Trung Qu???c th???a nh???n ??ng ki???m tra c??c d??ng tweet c???a Trump m???i bu???i s??ng. ??i???u ???? kh??ng c?? g?? b???t ng???. T??n T??? ???? t???ng n??i trong cu???n Binh ph??p n???i ti???ng c???a m??nh r???ng ???Bi???t m??nh, bi???t ng?????i, tr??m tr???n tr??m th???ng???.

Stephen S. Roach l?? c???u Ch??? t???ch v?? kinh t??? tr?????ng c???a T???p ??o??n Morgan Stanley chi nh??nh ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng. ??ng c??n l?? th??nh vi??n c???p cao t???i Vi???n Jackson v??? c??c v???n ????? to??n c???u c???a ?????i h???c Yale, v?? l?? gi???ng vi??n cao c???p Tr?????ng Qu???n l?? thu???c ?????i h???c Yale. ??ng l?? t??c gi??? cu???n s??ch Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China.
16/12/1979: OPEC tuy??n b??? t??ng gi?? d???u
 

Ngu???n: OPEC states raise oil pricesHistory.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1979, ????m tr?????c cu???c h???p thi???t l???p gi?? h??ng n??m c???a T??? ch???c C??c N?????c Xu???t kh???u D???u m??? (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC) ??? Caracas, hai n?????c th??nh vi??n (Libya v?? Indonesia) ???? c??ng b??? k??? ho???ch t??ng gi?? d???u [th??] th??m 4 USD (Libya) v?? 2 USD (Indonesia) m???i th??ng. Gi?? sau c??ng ??? t????ng ???ng l?? 30 USD v?? 25,50 USD cho m???i th??ng ??? tr??? th??nh m???t trong nh???ng m???c cao nh???t t???ng c??. C??c ?????ng th??i ngo???i giao n??y l?? nh???m khi???n cho nh??m ???di???u h??u??? thu???c OPEC ng???ng vi???c ?????y gi?? d???u l??n cao h??n n???a. D?? v???y, t???i cu???i n??m 1979, gi?? d???u ???? t??ng h??n g???p ????i so v???i cu???i n??m tr?????c.

Vi???c t??ng gi?? n??y ch??? l??m tr???m tr???ng th??m cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??ng l?????ng v???n ???? di???n ra t??? ?????u n??m 1979. Cu???c t???n c??ng v??o m??? d???u c???a Iran v?? cu???c C??ch m???ng Th??ng 1 ???? l??m gi??n ??o???n ngu???n cung d???u t??? khu v???c Trung ????ng, v?? vi???c OPEC tr?????c ???? c??ng ???? t??ng gi?? ???? ?????y gi?? d???u l??n m???c cao nh???t m???i th???i ?????i. V??o th???i ??i???m Kh???ng ho???ng Con tin Iran b???t ?????u v??o th??ng 11, ng?????i M??? ???? ph???i h???ng ch???u nh???ng ???nh h?????ng c???a ???c?? s???c d???u??? n??y: d??ng ng?????i x???p h??ng d??i v???i v??? m???t kh?? ch???u t???i c??c tr???m x??ng, ho???ng lo???n tr?????c vi???c thi???u x??ng v?? kh?? ?????t, ?????ng th???i gi???n d??? v?? th???t v???ng v???i c??c lo???i xe hao t???n nhi??n li???u ???????c s???n xu???t b???i c??c nh?? s???n xu???t ?? t?? M???.

Nh???ng b???t ti???n n??y khi???n nhi???u ng?????i M??? nh??? v??? Kh???ng ho???ng D???u m??? n??m 1973-1974, khi m???t l???nh c???m v???n c???a c??c n?????c xu???t kh???u d???u m??? (OPEC) khi???n gi?? x??ng t??ng v???t: T??nh ?????n th???i ??i???m c???m v???n k???t th??c, gi?? b??n l??? x??ng trung b??nh ???? t??ng l??n 84 cent/gallon t??? m???c 38 cent/ gallon. K???t qu??? l??, c??c xe h??i l???n, n???ng n??? v???n ???? l??m c??c nh?? s???n xu???t ?? t?? M??? n???i ti???ng nay tr??? th??nh th??? ph????ng ti???n c???c k??? ?????t ????? ??? nhi???u lo???i xe ch??? ??i ???????c ch??a t???i 10 d???m cho m???i gallon x??ng! Nhi???u ng?????i ch???p nh???n b??n th??o nh???ng chi???c xe k???nh c??ng hao x??ng hay nh???ng chi???sedan sang tr???ng kh???ng l??? ????? mua lo???i xe compact nh??? g???n ti???t ki???m nhi??n li???u. S??? ki???n n??y ???? k???t th??c kh??ng m???y t???t ?????p ?????i v???i c??c nh?? s???n xu???t ?? t?? M???, nh???ng ng?????i ???? v???i v?? ????a m???t s??? d??ng xe ?? t?? nh??? ra th??? tr?????ng m?? kh??ng ki???m tra k??? l?????ng, v?? t??? ???? ch??? khi???n h??? mang ti???ng c?? ch???t l?????ng kh??ng ????ng tin c???y v?? k??m c???i. Sau khi cu???c kh???ng ho???ng l???ng xu???ng, h???u h???t c??c xe compact n???i ?????a ???? b??? b??? l???i trong b??i ????? c???a c??c ?????i l??.

Tuy nhi??n, trong cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??ng l?????ng n??m 1979, c??c nh?? s???n xu???t ?? t?? Nh???t B???n tr??? n??n n???i ti???ng nh??? vi???c ch??? t???o nh???ng chi???c xe r??? ti???n, ????ng tin c???y, hi???u qu??? ?????c bi???t ph?? h???p v???i th???i k??? ???th???t l??ng bu???c b???ng??? m???i. N??m ????, Datsun, Subaru, Toyota v?? Honda ??? v???i chi???c Accord sedan sau tr??? th??nh l?? m???t trong nh???ng chi???c xe th??nh c??ng nh???t c???a n??m 1979 ??? ???? ?????t ???????c m???t ch??? ?????ng l??u d??i t???i th??? tr?????ng M???.

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Campuchia ng?? theo Trung Qu???c
 

Ngu???n: Charles Edel, ???Cambodia???s Troubling Tilt Toward China???, Foreign Affairs17/08/2018.

Bi??n d???ch: Hu???nh Hoa

V?? ??i???u ???? c?? ?? ngh??a g?? cho chi???n l?????c ???n ?????-Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a Hoa K????

Khi th??? t?????ng Campuchia Hun Sen tuy??n b??? gi??nh chi???n th???ng ??p ?????o trong cu???c b???u c??? ng??y 29-7 c???a n?????c n??y, ??a s??? c??c quan s??t vi??n qu???c t??? ?????u nhanh ch??ng t??? c??o k???t qu??? ???? l?? gian l???n. V???i cu???c b???u c??? gi??p c???ng c??? vi???c n???m gi??? quy???n h??nh k??o d??i ???? 33 n??m v?? ng??y c??ng chuy??n ch??? c???a Hun Sen, l???i t??? c??o ???? g??y lo l???ng. Nh??ng c??n ????ng lo h??n n???a c?? l??? l?? chuy???n Hun Sen g???n ????y ???? ng?? theo Trung Qu???c, c??ng nh???ng l???i ??ch ?????a ph????ng v?? khu v???c ng??y c??ng t??ng m?? B???c Kinh nh???n ???????c t??? m???i quan h??? v???i Campuchia.

V?? v?? s??? l?? do, t??? l??u Washington ???? coi Campuchia nh?? m???t m???c ti??u chi???n l?????c ???? m???t. Nh??ng vi???c qu???c gia n??y quay sang Trung Qu???c c?? th??? l?? l???i c???nh b??o v??? s??? hi???n di???n kinh t??? ng??y c??ng l???n c???a Trung Qu???c, ?????c bi???t l?? ??? c??c qu???c gia chuy??n ch???, c?? ?? ngh??a nh?? th??? n??o ?????i v???i v??ng ????ng Nam ??, v?? r???ng h??n l?? v???i khu v???c ??-??u. ????? ???ng ph?? m???t c??ch hi???u qu???, Hoa K??? v?? c??c ?????ng minh c???n nh??n Campuchia b???ng c??ch nh??n m???i, coi ????y v???a nh?? m???t th??ch th???c v??? an ninh qu???c gia v???a nh?? m???t c?? h???i. M???c d?? Hun Sen ???? si???t ch???t quy???n ki???m so??t ?????t n?????c n??y v?? ?????y n?? t???i g???n B???c Kinh h??n, th???c s??? v???n c?? m???t n???i c??m gi???n ng??y c??ng r???ng l???n, c?? th??? l?? th???m l???ng, trong d??n ch??ng b??nh th?????ng tr?????c s??? th???n ph???c Trung Qu???c c???a ch??nh ph???.

Nh???ng m???i quan h??? r??ng bu???c

Trong hai th???p ni??n qua, Trung Qu???c ra s???c vun ?????p m???i quan h??? v???i nh?? ?????c t??i Campuchia. B???c Kinh ti???p t???c ???ng h??? Hun Sen khi ??ng n??y gi???i t??n ?????ng ?????i l???p ch??nh c???a Campuchia, ?????y l??nh t??? c???a n?? v??o t??, l??ng ??o???n m???ng x?? h???i ????? t??ng s??? ???ng h??? b??? n???i c???a ??ng ta v?? ch??? tr?? cu???c tr???n ??p hai t??? b??o ?????c l???p l???n nh???t ?????t n?????c. Khi cu???c ????n ??p ?????i l???p ch??nh tr??? b???t ?????u h???i gi???a th??ng M?????i M???t, Trung Qu???c ???? ?????ng ra b???o v??? ch??nh ph??? [Campuchia]. Sau cu???c g???p ngo???i tr?????ng Trung Qu???c V????ng Ngh??? (Wang Yi) h???i cu???i th??ng Ba, Hun Sen vi???t tr??n trang Facebook c?? nh??n: ???C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c mu???n ???ng h??? v?? mong mu???n Samdech Techo [Hun Sen] chi???n th???ng cu???c b???u c??? v?? d???n d???t v???n m???nh c???a Campuchia, l??m cho n?? ph??t tri???n h??n trong t????ng lai???. V?? tr?????c cu???c b???u c??? th??ng B???y, ?????i s??? Trung Qu???c t???i Campuchia ???? tham gia cu???c tu???n h??nh v???n ?????ng b???u c??? c???a ?????ng c???m quy???n t???i Phnom Penh.

S??? ???ng h??? n??y c??n c?? nhi???u h??nh th???c c??? th???. Th??ng M?????i Hai n??m ngo??i, Trung Qu???c cam k???t cho Chi???n d???ch B???u c??? Qu???c gia c???a Campuchia 20 tri???u ???? la M??? ????? d???ng ph??ng b??? phi???u, m??y vi t??nh v?? c??c thi???t b??? kh??c. Trong chuy???n th??m Campuchia h???i th??ng S??u, b??? tr?????ng qu???c ph??ng Trung Qu???c c??ng b??? m???t g??i vi???n tr??? qu??n s??? tr??? gi?? 100 tri???u ???? la v?? tuy??n b??? r???ng Campuchia l?? m???t ???ng?????i b???n trung th??nh???. B???c Kinh c??ng l??m vi???c c???t l???c ????? vun ?????p l??ng trung th??nh ???? ??? qu???c gia l??ng gi???ng ph????ng nam c???a m??nh. ????? gi??p Hun Sen b?? ?????p s??? ph?? ph??n ??? trong n?????c v?? qu???c t??? v??? b?????c ngo???t ng??y c??ng chuy??n ch??? c???a ??ng ta, Trung Qu???c ???? gia t??ng vi???n tr??? v?? ?????u t??, c??ng b??? c??c m??n cho vay ??u ????i tr??? gi?? h??ng tr??m tri???u ???? la, h??? tr??? c??c d??? ??n h??? t???ng c?? s??? v?? n??ng s??? du kh??ch Trung Qu???c th??m vi???ng Campuchia trong n??m ngo??i th??m h??n 40 ph???n tr??m. Hi???n nay Trung Qu???c l?? n?????c vi???n tr??? l???n nh???t c???a Campuchia.

????p l???i s??? ???ng h??? t???n t??nh c???a B???c Kinh, Campuchia d?????i quy???n Hun Sen ng??y c??ng tr??? th??nh n?????c ch?? h???u c???a Trung Qu???c, gi??p m??? r???ng c??c tham v???ng ?????a ph????ng v?? khu v???c c???a B???c Kinh. Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia ???? gi???i t???a h??ng ch???c ng??n h??? gia ????nh ng?????i Campuchia cho c??c d??? ??n m?? Trung Qu???c t??i tr???. Qu?? ????ng nh???t l?? trong m???t th???a thu???n vi ph???m lu???t ph??p qu???c gia Campuchia, ch??nh ph??? ???? b?? m???t nh?????ng cho m???t c??ng ty Trung Qu???c h??n 20 ph???n tr??m d???i b??? bi???n c???a Campuchia. Hun Sen ???? t???n t???y ????p ???ng y??u c???u c???a B???c Kinh ph???i l??m nhi???u h??n n???a ????? b???o v??? ?????u t?? c???a Trung Qu???c, ph???i t???n c??ng nh???ng k??? n??o ?????t nghi v???n v??? s??? ph??? thu???c kinh t??? ng??y c??ng n???ng c???a Campuchia v??o n?????c l??ng gi???ng ph????ng b???c. ??ng ta c??ng b???o v??? c??c d??? ??n ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i, g???t sang m???t b??n nh???ng l???i ph?? ph??n r???ng nh???ng d??? ??n nh?? v???y ?????t g??nh n???ng kh??ng ch???u ?????ng n???i l??n c??c qu???c gia ti???p nh???n, g??y ra nh???ng thi???t h???i m??i sinh v??? l??u d??i v?? khi???n ng?????i lao ?????ng ?????a ph????ng ph???i r???i b??? qu?? h????ng.

?????i v???i nh???ng tham v???ng khu v???c c???a Trung Qu???c, m???i quan h??? v???i Campuchia mang l???i nh???ng kho???n l???i l???c li??n t???c. M???c d?? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t n?????c c?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n trong v??ng l??nh th??? tranh ch???p ??? Bi???n ????ng, Campuchia ???? ki??n tr?? ???ng h??? ho???t ?????ng x??y ?????o nh??n t???o v?? qu??n s??? h??a ??? ????. Campuchia ???? che ch???n B???c Kinh kh???i s??? ph?? ph??n c???a Hi???p h???i c??c qu???c gia ????ng Nam ?? b???ng c??ch nhi???u l???n ng??n ch???n c??c bi???n ph??p bu???c B???c Kinh ph???i ch???u tr??ch nhi???m cho h??nh vi x??m l???n c???a m??nh. Ngo??i ra, vi???c Trung Qu???c th??u t??m nhi???u khu ?????t r???ng l???n tr??n d???i b??? bi???n c???a Campuchia v?? x??y d???ng c??c c?? s??? c???ng bi???n ??? th??nh ph??? duy??n h???i Sihanoukville h?? l??? nh???ng v??? tr?? ti???m t??ng cho c??c c??n c??? h???i qu??n Trung Qu???c trong t????ng lai, cho ph??p B???c Kinh c?? kh??? n??ng ph??ng chi???u s???c m???nh ra to??n khu v???c v?? xa h??n n???a. V?? n??m ngo??i, Campuchia ???? b??i b??? m???t ch????ng tr??nh vi???n tr??? qu??n s??? k??o d??i ???? l??u c???a Hoa K??? ?????ng th???i n??ng c???p ho???t ?????ng ph???i h???p v?? hu???n luy???n v???i qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c.

C?? l??? ??i???u quan tr???ng nh???t v???i m???t ch??? ????? Trung Qu???c m?? h??nh ???nh b??? hoen ??? ??? n?????c ngo??i l?? Campuchia ???? ph???c v??? nh?? m???t ti???ng n??i trung th??nh, cung c???p s??? tuy??n truy???n t??ch c???c cho B???c Kinh. ?????ng b??n c???nh m???t quan ch???c cao c???p t??? ban tuy??n gi??o c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c h???i th??ng T?? v???a qua, Hun Sen ???? ch??? tr?? vi???c ph??t h??nh cu???n s??ch v??? t?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh b???n d???ch ti???ng Khmer v?? khuy???n kh??ch ???c??c quan ch???c, gi??o s??, sinh vi??n Campuchia ?????c cu???n s??ch ???y???. Khi truy???n th??ng ?????c l???p b??? b???t mi???ng ??? Campuchia, c??c c?? quan b??o ch?? do nh?? n?????c ??i???u h??nh c???a Trung Qu???c nh?? b??o China DailyTh???i b??o Ho??n C???u (the Global Times) v?? T??n hoa x?? (Xinhua) l???p t???c v??o l???p ch??? tr???ng, ????ng ?????y c??c trang b??nh lu???n c???a b??o ch?? Campuchia v?? bi???n ch??ng th??nh c??i loa tuy??n truy???n cho Trung Qu???c. V??? ph????ng di???n n??y, Campuchia l?? m???t v?? d??? ????ng lo ng???i v??? m???t nh?? n?????c ho???t ?????ng nh???p nh??ng v???i b??? m??y tuy??n truy???n v?? ki???m duy???t c???a B???c Kinh.

Trong khi ????, quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c g??y nguy hi???m ti???m t??ng cho ?????c l???p v?? ch??? quy???n c???a Campuchia m?? ch??? mang l???i r???t ??t l???i l???c cho ng?????i d??n th?????ng. M???c d?? v???n ?????u t?? c???a Trung Qu???c m??? ra nhi???u d??? ??n x??y d???ng tr??n kh???p Campuchia, c??c nh?? quan s??t ???? b??y t??? m???i lo r???ng ???c??c d??? ??n b???ch t?????ng, c??c th??nh ph??? ma v?? c??c ng??i l??ng Potemkin???[1] kh??ng l??m ???????c g?? cho s??? ph??t tri???n t????ng lai c???a ?????t n?????c. Theo ????ng cung c??ch l??m ??n m?? h??? th???c hi???n ??? nhi???u n??i kh??c tr??n th??? gi???i, c??c c??ng ty qu???c doanh Trung Qu???c mang theo lao ?????ng Trung Qu???c ????? l??m ???????ng s??, ?????p n?????c, c???u c???ng m?? kh??ng thu?? m?????n lao ?????ng ?????a ph????ng ho???c chuy???n giao ki???n th???c, chuy??n m??n cho c??c c???ng ?????ng ?????a ph????ng. Ti??u bi???u cho c??ch l??m n??y l?? ?????u t?? c???a Trung Qu???c ??? th??nh ph??? duy??n h???i Sihanoukville, n??i c??c s??ng b??i v?? du kh??ch Trung Qu???c ??ang ??? ???t tr??n v??o. Nh?? ph??ng vi??n Anna Fifield t?????ng thu???t tr??n b??o The Washington Post, m???t n???i c??m gh??t ??ang d??ng tr??o trong nh???ng ng?????i d??n th?????ng Campuchia. ???T???t c??? c??ng cu???c x??y d???ng m?? h??? ??ang l??m ch??? c?? l???i cho ng?????i Trung Qu???c. N?? t???t cho b???n ch??? ?????t ch??? kh??ng ph???i cho d??n th?????ng???, m???t ng?????i ????n ??ng ??? Sihanoukville n??i. ???Trong r???t nhi???u tr?????ng h???p, l???i ??ch l?? r???t b?? nh??? ho???c ch??? c?? thi???t h???i???, ??ng Sebastian Strangio, t??c gi??? s??ch Hun Sen???s Cambodia (N?????c Campuchia c???a Hun Sen), nh???n x??t. V???n ?????u t?? c???a B???c Kinh c??ng d???n t???i s??? suy tho??i v??? m??i tr?????ng sinh th??i ??? m???t ?????t n?????c ???? ph???i v???t l???n v???i h??ng lo???t v???n ????? m??i sinh.

M???t l??nh v???c ????ng quan t??m kh??c l?? kh??a c???nh ngo???i giao b???y n??? c???a vi???n tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c. Trung Qu???c ???? s???m m???t vai tr?? qu?? l???n trong s??? ph??t tri???n c???a Campuchia, ????ng g??p kho???ng 44 ph???n tr??m t???ng s??? v???n ?????u t?? n?????c ngo??i m?? Campuchia nh???n ???????c t??? n??m 1994 ?????n 2014. ?????c t??nh c?? kho???ng 70 ph???n tr??m s??? ???????ng s?? v?? c???u c???ng ??? n?????c n??y ???????c Trung Qu???c h??? tr??? t??i ch??nh qua kho???n cho vay g???n 2 t??? ???? la, t????ng ??????ng v???i m???t ph???n m?????i t???ng s???n l?????ng GDP c???a Campuchia. D??ng ti???n Trung Qu???c ????? v??o ???? ?????y Campuchia v??o m???t m???i quan h??? b???p b??nh, th???m ch?? l??? thu???c v??o B???c Kinh. Campuchia hi???n m???c n??? Trung Qu???c h??n 4 t??? ???? la, b???ng b???n m????i ph???n tr??m t???ng s??? n??? c??ng ch??a tr??? c???a qu???c gia, theo m???t s??? d??? t??nh.

Washington s??? b?????c v??o?

S??? ki???n Campuchia ng?? theo Trung Qu???c ???? x???y ra trong s??? thi???u v???ng m???t m???i quan h??? g???n b?? b???n v???ng v???i Hoa K??? v?? ph????ng T??y. ????y l?? chuy???n kh??ng may b???i v?? cu???c ?????u tranh ??ang di???n ra ??? Campuchia l?? m?? h??nh thu nh??? c???a m???t cu???c chi???n r???ng l???n h??n nhi???u nh???m tranh gi??nh ???nh h?????ng ??? ????ng Nam ??. Trong Chi???n l?????c An ninh qu???c gia Hoa K??? n??m 2017, Washington th???a nh???n r???ng ???cu???c c???nh tranh ?????a ch??nh tr??? gi???a t???m nh??n t??? do v?? t???m nh??n ??p b???c v??? tr???t t??? th??? gi???i??? ??ang di???n ra ??? khu v???c ???n ????? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng???. N???u Hoa K??? mu???n ???ng h??? c??c x?? h???i t??? do v?? c???i m??? th?? Washington ph???i l??m sao ????? n??u b???t chuy???n c??c ch??? ????? chuy??n ch??? nh?? Campuchia ???? kh??ng ph???c v??? nh??n d??n m??nh nh?? th??? n??o.

C??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch ??? Washington th?????ng l??ng qu??n Campuchia trong nh???ng cu???c th???o lu???n r???ng r??i h??n v??? nh???ng v???n ????? n??y v?? m???t s??? l?? do. ????y l?? m???t n?????c nh??? ??ang ph??t tri???n, kh??ng c?? l??nh th??? ho???c bi??n gi???i mang t??nh chi???n l?????c; n?? ???? b??? Hun Sen cai tr??? h??n ba m????i n??m r???i v?? n??i chung n?? ???????c coi l?? m???t n?????c h???u nh?? ???? n???m trong t??i ??o c???a Trung Qu???c. V?? v???y, t??? quan ??i???m kinh t???, d??n ch???, ch??nh tr??? v?? chi???n l?????c, Campuchia b??? coi l?? v??ng l??nh th??? c???n c???i, ????ng ???????c c??ng nh???n nh??ng kh??ng ????ng ch?? ?? ho???c gi??p ?????.

????y l?? m???t sai l???m. Campuchia c?? l??? l?? k??? b??o hi???u cho nh???ng g?? c?? th??? x???y ra trong ch??nh tr??? v?? ch??nh s??ch c???a m???t qu???c gia c?? ch??? quy???n khi ch??nh ph??? c???a n?? chuy???n ho??n to??n sang phe B???c Kinh; nh??ng ??i???u ???? kh??ng bi???n n?? th??nh m???t tr?????ng h???p v?? v???ng. Hoa K??? c?? th??? v?? n??n ch???ng l???i ???nh h?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c nh?? l?? m???t ph???n c???a chi???n l?????c ???n ????? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng r???ng l???n h??n. V?? l??m nh?? v???y ??? m???t ?????t n?????c nh?? Campuchia c??ng s??? cho th???y cam k???t c???a Hoa K??? v???i to??n b??? khu v???c ch??? kh??ng ch??? ??? nh???ng n??i thu???n l???i m?? th??i.

N???u Washington v?? c??c ?????ng minh xem x??t l???i c??ch suy ngh?? v??? Campuchia, s??? c?? nhi???u vi???c h??? c?? th??? l??m ??? c??? trong ph???m vi n?????c n??y v?? r???ng h??n ??? kh???p ????ng Nam ??. T??nh c???p b??ch c???a vi???c c???nh tranh v???i m???t n?????c Trung Qu???c ng??y c??ng phi t??? do ??? ????ng Nam ?? ??ang t??ng l??n, nh??ng c??c ngu???n l???c c???a Hoa K??? ???? kh??ng t??ng l??n t????ng ???ng. T??ng c???nh tranh m?? kh??ng t??ng ngu???n l???c kh??ng ph???i l?? c??ng th???c ????? th??nh c??ng. ????? c???nh tranh hi???u qu???, Washington c???n cam k???t th??m nhi???u ng??n qu??? ????? th??c ?????y ho???t ?????ng ngo???i giao c??ng c???ng v?? giao l??u nh??n d??n v???i Campuchia. Hai l??, c???n ph???i l??m nhi???u h??n ????? ch???ng l???i c??c chi???n d???ch tung tin gi???. Trong v??ng m???t n??m r?????i qua, Campuchia ???? t??? m???t m??i tr?????ng truy???n th??ng t????ng ?????i c???i m??? chuy???n sang m???t m??i tr?????ng c??ng l??c c??ng b??? ch??? ng??? b???i tuy??n truy???n v?? th??ng tin m??o m??. H??y suy ngh?? m???t c??ch s??ng t???o v??? c??ch gi??p ng?????i d??n Campuchia ti???p c???n th??ng tin nhi???u h??n ??? ho???c d??ng c??ng ngh??? ????? phi??n d???ch truy???n th??ng n?????c ngo??i sang ti???ng Khmer ho???c gia t??ng ngu???n l???c cho ????i Voice of America v?? Radio Free Asia ??? t???o ra b??n trong Campuchia m???t cu???c th???o lu???n c???i m??? h??n v??? ph????ng h?????ng t????ng lai c???a ?????t n?????c v?? ho???t ?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c trong ph????ng h?????ng ????. Ngo??i ra, m??? r???ng danh s??ch c??c cu???c c???m v???n c?? m???c ti??u v??o nh???ng c?? nh??n ???? ti???n h??nh cu???c ????n ??p ng?????i b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n c?? th??? s??? l??m gia t??ng ??p l???c b??n trong ch??? ?????, bu???c h??? ph???i suy ngh?? l???i v??? s??? trung th??nh v?? ??i???u ki???n v???i Hun Sen.

Washington c?? th??? n??? l???c g???p ????i v??? h??? tr??? v?? ?????u t?? nh???m gi??p ng?????i d??n Campuchia, k??? c??? th??ng qua vi???n tr??? nh??n ?????o v?? ???ng h??? c??c n??? l???c r?? ph?? bom m??n. Di???n ????n Doanh nghi???p ???n ?????-Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a Hoa K??? m???i ????y c?? th??? cung c???p m???t b??? ph??ng ????? kh??ch l??? ?????u t?? c???a khu v???c kinh t??? t?? nh??n v??o Campuchia, v???a nh???m th??c ?????y t??ng tr?????ng t????ng lai c???a Campuchia v???a kh??ng ch??? khai th??c t??i nguy??n c???a n?????c n??y. Nhi???u ng?????i Campuchia c???m th???y r???ng Trung Qu???c ch???ng quan t??m g?? t???i b???o v??? m??i tr?????ng, quy???n c???a ng?????i lao ?????ng, hu???n luy???n nh??n vi??n ho???c t??nh minh b???ch. ????y l?? l??nh ?????a c?? ti???m n??ng thu???n l???i cho s??? tham gia c???a khu v???c t?? nh??n c???a Hoa K???, v???n b???n v???ng, do th??? tr?????ng d???n d???t, ????p ???ng nh???ng ti??u chu???n cao v??? an to??n v?? c?? ?? ?????nh g??p ph???n th??c ?????y t??ng tr?????ng h??n l?? l??i k??o qu???c gia ???y xu???ng b???ng nh???ng m??n n??? kh??ng c??ng ????ng n???i.

Tuy nhi??n, ????? nh???ng ?? t?????ng tr??n v???n h??nh ???????c, Hoa K??? v?? c??c ?????i t??c c???n th???c hi???n m???t n??? l???c nh???p nh??ng ????? cung c???p m???t m?? h??nh thay th??? kh??? thi v??? ph??t tri???n b???n v???ng. T??nh g???p l???i, ngu???n l???c c???a Hoa K???, ??c, ch??u ??u, ???n ?????, Nh???t B???n v?? Nam H??n l?? r???t to l???n. T???t c??? c??c qu???c gia n??y ?????u ch??nh th???c ghi nh???n t???m quan tr???ng c???a ????ng Nam ?? trong s??? ph??t tri???n t????ng lai c???a m??nh ??? v?? ??ang ti???n h??nh m???t n??? l???c b???n b?? ????? cung c???p m???t h??nh m???u thay th??? c?? t??c ?????ng m???nh m???. L??m ???????c nh?? v???y ??t ra c??ng cung c???p cho c??c qu???c gia nh?? Campuchia m???t s??? l???a ch???n th???t s???. Gia t??ng ??p l???c l??n Hun Sen ??? ho???c b???ng c??ch n??u b???t h??n n???a m???i li??n k???t c?? nh??n g???n g??i c???a ??ng ta v???i B???c Kinh ho???c ti???n h??nh nh???ng cu???c c???m v???n c?? ph???i h???p nh???m v??o nh???ng k??? ch???u tr??ch nhi???m v??? vi ph???m nh??n quy???n trong ch??? ????? c???a ??ng ta ??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t m???c ????ch t??? th??n. Thay v?? v???y, nh???ng c??ng c??? ch??nh s??ch n??y nh???m ch???ng l???i s??? lan tr??n ???nh h?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c v?? truy???n s??? t??? tin cho ng?????i d??n Campuchia.

Nh???ng cu???c b???u c??? g???n ????y ??? Campuchia ch??? nh???n ???????c m???t kho???nh kh???c ng???n ng???i s??? quan t??m v?? l??n ??n ??? Washington. N???u nh?? ???? l?? t???t c??? s??? r??ng bu???c c???a Washington th?? qu??? l?? m???t c?? h???i b??? b??? l???. Tr?? chuy???n v???i h??ng tr??m ng?????i Campuchia l?? sinh vi??n, l??nh ?????o doanh nghi???p, s?? quan qu??n ?????i, vi??n ch???c ch??nh ph??? v?? nh?? b??o trong c??c cu???c th??m d?? d?? lu???n ?????u cho th???y r???ng ?????t n?????c c??n r???t tr??? n??y c?? xu h?????ng th??n Hoa K???. C??ng v???i n???i kh?? ch???u ng??y c??ng t??ng v???i Trung Qu???c l?? kh??t v???ng c?? th??m s??? r??ng bu???c v???i Hoa K???. Campuchia kh??ng ph???i ??ang n???m trong t??i ??o c???a Trung Qu???c, cho d?? gi???i l??nh ?????o hi???n th???i c???a n?? l??m nh?? v???y. H??y t???n d???ng th???c t??? ???? ????? ?????u tranh cho l???i ??ch c???a nh??n d??n Campuchia, l??m suy y???u v??ng ki???m t???a c???a Trung Qu???c l??n Phnom Penh v?? l??m cho chi???n l?????c c???a Hoa K??? c?? th??m s???c c???nh tranh trong khu v???c.

Charles Edel l?? nh?? nghi??n c???u cao c???p thu???c Trung t??m Nghi??n c???u Hoa K??? t???i tr?????ng ?????i h???c Sydney; tr?????c ????y t???ng ph???c v??? trong b??? ph???n ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch c???a b??? tr?????ng ngo???i giao Hoa K???. ??ng c??ng v???i Hal Brands l?? ?????ng t??c gi??? cu???n s??ch s???p xu???t b???n The Lesson of Tragedy: Statecraft and World Order (B??i h???c c???a Bi k???ch: T??i tr??? qu???c v?? Tr???t t??? Th??? gi???i).

 

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