Qu???c ph??ng VN: Ch??nh s??ch 'Kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???' ??ang g??y nguy c?? g???

Thứ ba - 08/10/2019 07:02
V??o th??ng 11/2011, T???ng th???ng M??? Obama ???? tung ra chi???n l?????c m???i: "Xoay tr???c sang ch??u ??" (Pivot to Asia) ????? ng??n ch???n Trung Qu???c b??nh tr?????ng trong khu v???c n??i chung, bi???n ????ng n??i ri??ng.

????? tri???n khai, B??o c??o chi???n l?????c qu??n s??? qu???c gia c???a M??? n??m 2012 nh???n m???nh n?????c n??y ph???i ph??t tri???n quan h??? qu??n s??? v???i Vi???t Nam, x??y d???ng Vi???t Nam tr??? th??nh ?????i t??c chi???n l?????c m???i.
Qu???c ph??ng VN: Ch??nh s??ch 'Kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???' ??ang g??y nguy c?? g???

Qu???c ph??ng VN: Ch??nh s??ch 'Kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???' ??ang g??y nguy c?? g???

Ti???n s?? Lu???t C?? Huy H?? V??G???i t???i BBC t??? Hoa K???
  • 7 gi??? tr?????c
C??u h???i ti???p theo l?? li???u li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i M??? c?? d???n ?????n 'm???t ?????ng'? C??u tr??? l???i c???a t??i ti???p t???c l?? 'KH??NG'Ba??n quy????n hi??nh a??nhLINH PHAM/GETTY IMAGES
Image caption"C??u h???i ti???p theo l?? li???u li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i M??? c?? d???n ?????n "m???t ?????ng"? C??u tr??? l???i c???a t??i ti???p t???c l?? "KH??NG"...

V??o th??ng 11/2011, T???ng th???ng M??? Obama ???? tung ra chi???n l?????c m???i: "Xoay tr???c sang ch??u ??" (Pivot to Asia) ????? ng??n ch???n Trung Qu???c b??nh tr?????ng trong khu v???c n??i chung, bi???n ????ng n??i ri??ng.

????? tri???n khai, B??o c??o chi???n l?????c qu??n s??? qu???c gia c???a M??? n??m 2012 nh???n m???nh n?????c n??y ph???i ph??t tri???n quan h??? qu??n s??? v???i Vi???t Nam, x??y d???ng Vi???t Nam tr??? th??nh ?????i t??c chi???n l?????c m???i.

Bi???n ????ng: 'N??' t??n TQ, VN c?? k??? s??ch ri??ng?

B??o ???n ????? ????ng t???i l???i ?????i s??? VN v??? Bi???n ????ng

Ng?????i Vi????t ??? Ba Lan d???m ???nh T????p C????n B??nh

Tuy nhi??n, b???ng ch???ng ng???an m???c nh???t c???a quy???t t??m "bi???n c???u th?? th??nh ?????ng minh" c???a T???ng th???ng Obama l?? vi???c ??ng ????n ti???p ch??nh th???c t???i Nh?? Tr???ng T???ng b?? th?? ?????ng c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam Nguy???n Ph?? Tr???ng v??o th??ng 7/2015. Th???c v???y, ????y l?? l???n ?????u ti??n m???t ng?????i ?????ng ?????u m???t ?????ng c???ng s???n ???????c M??? ti???p ????n c???p Nh?? n?????c.

T???ng th???ng Trump, v??? ph???n m??nh, ti???p t???c chi???n l?????c "Xoay tr???c sang ch??u ??" c???a ng?????i ti???n nhi???m nh??ng v???i c??i t??n m???i: "???n ????? - Th??i B??nh D????ng".

N???u nh?? Ch??nh quy???n Obama ????? l???i d???u ???n v???i vi???c b??? c???m v???n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng ?????i v???i Vi???t Nam th?? Ch??nh quy???n Trump n??m 2018 ????a ra Chi???n l?????c qu???c ph??ng (NDS) coi Trung Qu???c l?? "m???i ??e d???a l???n nh???t", ???????c minh h???a m???t c??ch ???n t?????ng b???ng vi???c t??u s??n bay USS Carl Vinson c???p c???ng ???? N??ng, s??? ki???n ch??a t???ng c?? thu???c lo???i n??y k??? t??? khi k???t th??c chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam v??o n??m 1975.

T??m l???i, theo quan ??i???m c???a t??i, ng?????i ???? c?? nhi???u cu???c trao ?????i v???i gi???i quan s??t ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a Washington, M??? nay ???? s???n s??ng cho m???t li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i Vi???t Nam ????? ch???ng Trung Qu???c ?????c chi???m bi???n ????ng cho d?? v???n lu??n quan ng???i v??? d??n ch??? v?? nh??n quy???n ??? qu???c gia ????ng Nam ?? n??y.

S???p b???y Trung Qu???c

Vi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c v???n ??ang c??ng th???ng tr??n Bi???n ????ngBa??n quy????n hi??nh a??nhVCG/GETY IMAGES
Image captionVi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c v???n ??ang c??ng th???ng tr??n Bi???n ????ng

V??? ph???n m??nh, ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam cho ?????n nay gi??? m???t th??i ????? ti??u c???c v???i m???t ?? t?????ng qu???c ph??ng nh?? v???y khi theo ??u???i ch??nh s??ch "Ba Kh??ng".

H???i th??m Trung Qu???c th??ng 10/2010, Th??? tr?????ng B??? Qu???c ph??ng Nguy???n Ch?? V???nh kh???ng ?????nh Vi???t Nam kh??ng tham gia c??c li??n minh qu??n s???, kh??ng l?? ?????ng minh qu??n s??? c???a b???t k??? n?????c n??o, kh??ng cho b???t c??? n?????c n??o ?????t c??n c??? qu??n s??? ??? Vi???t Nam v?? kh??ng d???a v??o n?????c n??y ????? ch???ng n?????c kia, g???i ???? l?? ch??nh s??ch "Ba Kh??ng".

Ng??y 24-9-2014, b???n th??ng sau khi Trung Qu???c ????a d??n khoan H???i D????ng 981 v??o v??ng bi???n thu???c Ho??ng Sa, s??? ki???n g??y ra m???t l??n s??ng bi???u t??nh ph???n ?????i Trung Qu???c tr??n c??? n?????c v???i quy m?? l???n ch??a t???ng c??, Ph?? Th??? t?????ng ki??m B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao Vi???t Nam Ph???m B??nh Minh trong tr??? l???i ph???ng v???n ????i Ti???ng n??i Hoa K??? t??i kh???ng ?????nh ch??nh s??ch "Ba Kh??ng".

Ch??nh s??ch n??y m???i ????y ???? ???????c lu???t h??a b???ng Kho???n 3 ??i???u 4 Lu???t Qu???c ph??ng 2018, c?? hi???u l???c t??? 01/01/2019.

Nh??ng l?? do ?????ng sau ch??nh s??ch "Ba Kh??ng" xu???t ph??t t??? s??? ki????n H?? N????i m???t ?????ng minh Li??n X??.

Khi c??c ch??? ????? c???ng s???n ??? Li??n X?? v?? ????ng ??u b???t ?????u s???p ????? v??o cu???i th???p k??? 80 c???a th??? k??? tr?????c (1), m???t c??ch b???n n??ng ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam x??c ?????nh b???o v??? ch??? ????? c???ng s???n trong n?????c l?? ??u ti??n h??ng ?????u trong khi Vi???t Nam kh??ng c??n nh???n ???????c vi???n tr??? t??? ?????ng minh qu??n s??? Li??n X?? ????? duy tr?? cu???c chi???n ch???ng Khmer ????? ???????c Trung Qu???c ch???ng l??ng ??? Campuchia.

B??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c, v???n b??? c???t ?????t b???i cu???c chi???n tranh x??m l?????c do ch??nh l??ng gi???ng ph????ng B???c n??y ph??t ?????ng v??o n??m 1979, v?? v???y ???????c ?????t ra m???t c??ch kh???n c???p. ??i???u n??y kh??ng nh???ng t???o ??i???u ki???n cho vi???c ?????t th???a thu???n v???i Trung Qu???c v??? vi???c Khmer ????? kh??ng quay tr??? l???i c???m quy???n m???t khi Vi???t Nam r??t qu??n kh???i Campuchia, m?? quan tr???ng h??n, gi??p ch??nh quy???n c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam ?????i ph?? th??nh c??ng v???i nh???ng cu???c ph???n lo???n ti???m t??ng ???????c "c??c th??? l???c th?? ?????ch qu???c t???" y???m tr???.

Th???c v???y, Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? c?? c??ng ch??? ????? ch??nh tr??? m?? c??n chung bi??n gi???i, r???t thu???n ti???n cho vi???c tr??? th??nh "h???u ph????ng l???n" cho ?????ng c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam trong t??nh hu???ng ch???ng l???t ????? n??i tr??n, nh?? n?????c l???n n??y ???? t???ng l?? trong c??c cu???c kh??ng chi???n ch???ng Ph??p v?? ch???ng M??? tr?????c ????y.

L??? d?? nhi??n Trung Qu???c n???m ngay c??i "th??p" n??y c???a ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam ????? ?????y m???nh h??n n???a x??m l?????c ?????o v?? quy???n ch??? quy???n c???a Vi???t Nam ??? bi???n ????ng. ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? m???i ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam ?????n Th??nh ????, Trung Qu???c v??o th??ng 9/1990 ????? th???a thu???n b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? gi???a hai n?????c, ??i???u n??y ???? ???????c th???c hi???n m???t n??m sau ????, v??o th??ng 11/1991. Tuy nhi??n, Trung Qu???c hi???u toan t??nh c???a h??? ch??? c?? th??? ???????c th???c hi???n tr??t l???t ch???ng n??o Vi???t Nam c??n ????n ?????c v??? qu??n s???, c??? th??? kh??ng ph???i l?? ?????ng minh qu??n s??? c???a b???t c??? n?????c n??o, nh???t l?? M???.

Do ????, l??nh ?????o cao nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c, t??? Giang Tr???ch D??n cho ?????n T???p C???n B??nh, ?????u ra s???c kho??t s??u n???i lo "m???t ?????ng", "m???t ch??? ????? x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a" c???a ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam v?? n??u cao t????ng ?????ng ch??? ????? ch??nh tr??? hai n?????c. H??? ????a ra nh???ng kh???u hi???u "l?? t?????ng t????ng ?????ng", "v???n m???nh t????ng quan", "?????ng ch?? t???t" v???i k???t c???c l?? ban l??nh ?????o Vi???t Nam ???? m???c b???y "d????ng ????ng k??ch T??y" c???a Trung Qu???c khi ?????ng ?? l???y ???? l??m ph????ng ch??m ????? x??? l?? quan h??? gi???a hai n?????c.

N??i c??ch kh??c, s??? kh??ng c?? chuy???n Vi???t Nam t??m ki???m ???ng h??? qu??n s??? t??? c?????ng qu???c kh??c, nh???t l?? v???i M???, v???n ???????c coi l?? k??? th?? c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n. Ch??nh s??ch "Ba Kh??ng" m?? c???t l??i l?? "kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???" t??? ???? m?? ra.

??i???u c???n l??u ?? l?? ch??nh s??ch "kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???" kh??ng ch??? d???n ?????n m???t l??nh th??? v?? quy???n ch??? quy???n c???a Vi???t Nam ??? Bi???n ????ng v??o tay Trung Qu???c m?? c??n ??e d???a an ninh t???ng th??? c???a Vi???t Nam trong tr?????ng h???p chi???n tranh x??m l?????c n??m 1979 ???????c l???p l???i.

Th???c v???y, so v???i c??ch ????y 4 th???p k??? s???c chi???n ?????u c???a qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ???? c?? b?????c nh???y v???t v???i chi ph?? qu???c ph??ng l???n th??? 2 th??? gi???i, sau M???, m?? cu???c di???u binh k??? ni???m 70 n??m th??nh l???p C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa h??m 1/10 ???? cho th???y r??, v?? nh???t l?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c ???? chi???m c??? d?????i v??? b???c kinh doanh h???u h???t c??c khu v???c xung y???u v??? an ninh - qu???c ph??ng c???a Vi???t Nam.

C??u h???i ?????t ra l?? trong t??nh hu???ng "m???t N?????c" nh?? v???y li???u quy???n l???c c???a ?????ng c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam c?? c??n t???n t???i?

T??i kh???ng ?????nh l?? "KH??NG" v?? l???ch s??? c???a ch??nh ?????ng n??y cho th???y cho th???y khi m???t ch??nh quy???n ????? m???t N?????c th?? nh??n d??n t???t ?????ng l??n ????? thay th??? ch??nh quy???n ???y b???ng m???t ch??nh quy???n c???u N?????c. Th???c v???y, C??ch m???ng Th??ng 8 n??m 1945 d?????i s??? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????ng c???ng s???n ????ng D????ng (t??n g???i l??c ???? c???a ?????ng c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam) ???? ph??? b??? Nh?? Nguy???n, m???t ch??nh quy???n ???? ????? m???t N?????c v??o tay Ph??p r???i Nh???t, ????? thi???t l???p n???n D??n ch??? C???ng h??a v?? tuy??n ng??n ?????c l???p v??o ng??y 2/9 c??ng n??m.

T??m l???i, ch??nh s??ch "kh??ng li??n minh qu??n s???" ch???ng nh???ng kh??ng gi??? ???????c N?????c tr?????c x??m l?????c Trung Qu???c m?? c??ng kh??ng gi??? n???i ch??? ????? c???ng s???n, hay l??m ?????ng c???ng s???n Vi???t Nam "m???t c??? ch?? l???n ch??i" nh?? c??ch n??i c???a ng?????i x??a.

'??i v???i M??? kh??ng m???t ?????ng'

C??u h???i ti???p theo l?? li???u li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i M??? c?? d???n ?????n "m???t ?????ng"? C??u tr??? l???i c???a t??i ti???p t???c l?? "KH??NG"

Sau khi Chi???n tranh L???nh ch???m d???t c??ng v???i s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X?? v??o n??m 1991, M??? kh??ng c??n coi ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ??? Vi???t Nam l?? m???i ??e d???a ?????i v???i l???i ??ch c???a M???. Ng?????c l???i, ch??? ngh??a b??nh tr?????ng b???ng v?? l???c c???a Trung Qu???c, c??? th??? l?? m??u toan bi???n bi???n ????ng th??nh "ao nh??" c???a n?????c n??y ??e d???a tr???c ti???p quy???n t??? do ??i l???i tr??n bi???n n??i ri??ng, l???i ??ch c???a M??? v???i t?? c??ch c?????ng qu???c to??n c???u n??i chung.

Do ????, M??? s??? kh??ng t??? b???n v??o ch??n m??nh khi ????nh ?????i ?????ng minh ?????y ti???m n??ng v?? h??n th??? n???a, ch??? ch???t, trong chi???n l?????c c???a m??nh ch???ng b??nh tr?????ng Trung Qu???c ????? l???y thay ?????i th??? ch??? ch??nh tr??? ??? Vi???t Nam. Nh??ng M??? s??? kh??ng t??m ki???m li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i Vi???t Nam b???ng m???i gi??, m?? ph???i tr??n c?? s??? n?????c n??y c???i thi???n nh??n quy???n v?? d??n ch??? c??ng nh?? th??c ?????y Nh?? n?????c ph??p quy???n theo m???t l??? tr??nh c?? th??? ki???m ch???ng.

C??u h???i c??n l???i l?? li???u M??? c?? "hy sinh" Vi???t Nam v???i t?? c??ch ?????ng minh qu??n s??? cho quan h??? M??? - Trung nh?? M??? ???? t???ng "b??? r??i" Vi???t Nam C???ng h??a? C??u tr??? l???i c???a t??i l?? "KH??NG" v?? t??nh h??nh Vi???t Nam v?? qu???c t??? ???? kh??c h???n.

T??? n??m 1972 M??? ???? quy???t ?????nh r??t kh???i cu???c chi???n ??? Vi???t Nam v?? ?????ch th??? - Vi???t Nam D??n ch??? C???ng h??a v?? l???c l?????ng c????ng s???n mi???n Nam, l?? ng?????i Vi???t Nam, khi???n M??? kh??ng c?? s??? ch??nh danh ngay t??? trong n?????c nh?? khi ch???ng c??c n?????c x??m l??ng ?????c, ??, Nh???t h???i Th??? Chi???n 2.

Ti???p theo, r??t qu??n kh???i Vi???t Nam, ?????ng nh???t v???i lo???i b??? nguy c?? xung ?????t qu??n s??? tr???c ti???p v???i Trung Qu???c, ???? mang l???i cho M??? m???t s??? h??a ho??n ????ng k??? v???i Trung Qu???c ????? t??? ???? d??ng n?????c n??y cho m???t tr???n ph?? Li??n X??, tr??? c???t c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n th??? gi???i. M???c ti??u n??y ???? ???????c ho??n th??nh v???i s??? s???p ????? c???a Li??n X?? v??o n??m 1991, ?????ng nh???t v???i s??? k???t th??c chi???n l?????c ng??n ch???n ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n c???a M??? v?? c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y kh??c ???????c bi???t d?????i c??i t??n "Chi???n tranh l???nh".

Nay, chi???n l?????c c???a Hoa K??? l?? ch???ng Trung Qu???c b??nh tr?????ng b???ng v?? l???c ??? Bi???n ????ng, v?? ??? ????y Vi???t Nam ????ng vai tr?? then ch???t n??n Washington s???n s??ng s??t c??nh v???i Vi???t Nam v??? qu??n s???. Nh?? v???y, ch??? khi n??o Trung Qu???c t??? b??? tham v???ng c???a m??nh ??? bi???n ????ng th?? M??? m???i c?? th??? th??i l?? ?????ng minh c???a Vi???t Nam.

B??i h???c t??? Cu????c chi???n 1979 cho th???y n???u Vi???t Nam c?? ???????c quan h??? ngo???i giao v???i M??? ngay sau khi ?????t n?????c th???ng nh???t v??o n??m 1975 th?? ???? kh??ng b??? B???c Kinh t???n c??ng. Do ????, Vi???t Nam li??n minh qu??n s??? v???i M??? s???m ng??y n??o th?? nguy c?? ti???p t???c m???t ?????o, m???t quy???n ch??? quy???n tr??n Bi???n ????ng v??o tay Trung Qu???c c??ng nh?? nguy c?? h???ng ch???u m???t cu???c chi???n tranh tr??n bi???n l???n ?????t li???n b??? ?????y l??i ng??y ???y.

Hy v???ng d?????i s??? ??i???u h??nh T???ng b?? th??, Ch??? t???ch Vi???t Nam Nguy???n Ph?? Tr???ng, ng?????i m???i ????y k??u g???i "?????t l???i ??ch qu???c gia, d??n t???c l??n t???i cao" trong b???i c???nh ?????i t??u kh???o s??t H???i D????ng 8 c???a Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c ti???n s??u v??o b??i T?? Ch??nh (Vanguard Bank) thu???c v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? c???a Vi???t Nam, H???i ngh??? Trung ????ng ?????ng CSVN l???n th??? 11 (kho?? XII), ??ang di???n ra t???i H?? N???i, s??? t???o ?????t ph?? v???i vi???c t??? b??? ch??nh s??ch 'Ba Kh??ng" ????? h?????ng t???i m???t li??n minh v?? an ninh chung c???a hai n?????c Vi???t - M???.

T??c gi??? l?? m???t lu???t gia, h???c gi??? v?? nh?? b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n, c???u t?? nh??n ch??nh tr??? Vi???t Nam, hi????n s???ng t???i Washington DC. B??i vi???t th??? hi????n quan ??i???m c?? nh??n.
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