Nh??n l???i s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n 30 n??m tr?????c

Thứ ba - 20/08/2019 21:10
Th??ng n??y ????nh d???u 30 n??m k??? t??? khi ch??u ??u ??? v?? n???n v??n minh nh??n lo???i n??i chung ??? b???t ?????u tr???i qua m???t s??? bi???n ?????i k??? di???u m?? hi???n ???? ???????c kh???c s??u trong k?? ???c c???a th??? gi???i. V??o m??a h?? n??m 1989, Li??n X?? ???? l??m v??o c???nh h???p h???i. C??u h???i duy nh???t l?? li???u ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n s??? tan r?? m???t c??ch h??a b??nh hay trong c???nh b???o l???c v?? t??n ph??.
Nh??n l???i s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n 30 n??m tr?????c

Nh??n l???i s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n 30 n??m tr?????c

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Ngu???n: Carl Bildt, ???Remembering the Miracle of 1989???, Project Syndicate, 19/08/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

Th??ng n??y ????nh d???u 30 n??m k??? t??? khi ch??u ??u ??? v?? n???n v??n minh nh??n lo???i n??i chung ??? b???t ?????u tr???i qua m???t s??? bi???n ?????i k??? di???u m?? hi???n ???? ???????c kh???c s??u trong k?? ???c c???a th??? gi???i. V??o m??a h?? n??m 1989, Li??n X?? ???? l??m v??o c???nh h???p h???i. C??u h???i duy nh???t l?? li???u ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n s??? tan r?? m???t c??ch h??a b??nh hay trong c???nh b???o l???c v?? t??n ph??.

??? Li??n X??, ch??nh s??ch glasnost (c??ng khai h??a) v?? perestroika(c???i t???) c???a Mikhail Gorbachev ???? m??? toang m???t lo???t thay ?????i, nh??ng Gorbachev d?????ng nh?? v???n tin r???ng h??? th???ng c???ng s???n c?? th??? ???????c c???u v??n nh??? c???i c??ch. Trong khi ????, ??? ngo???i vi c???a ????? ch??? X??-vi???t, nhi???u ng?????i lo ng???i r???ng s??? s???p ????? ti???m t??ng c???a h??? th???ng s??? ????a xe t??ng c???a H???ng Qu??n tr??? l???i ???????ng ph??? v?? c??c qu???ng tr?????ng th??nh ph???. K?? ???c v??? c??c cu???c ????n ??p c???a Li??n X?? t???i Berlin n??m 1953, Budapest n??m 1956 v?? Prague n??m 1968 v???n c??n s???ng ?????ng, c??ng nh?? s??? ????n ??p kh???c li???t ?????i v???i c??c qu???c gia v??ng Baltic trong th???i gian s???p s???a di???n ra Th??? chi???n II.

Sinh ra trong kh???ng b???, Li??n X?? ???? ???????c duy tr?? b???i qu??n ?????i v?? c???nh s??t m???t. Kh??ng ai bi???t li???u n?? c?? th??? s???ng s??t m?? kh??ng c???n ?????n v?? l???c m???t l???n n???a hay kh??ng. ???? l?? m???t kho???ng th???i gian ?????y lo l???ng ?????i v???i ch??u ??u.

Nh??ng ???? c??ng l?? th???i ??i???m ph???i thay ?????i. Nh???ng n??? l???c nh???m ????n ??p c??ng ??o??n ?????c l???p c???a Ba Lan, phong tr??o ??o??n k???t (Solidarno????), ???? th???t b???i. Bu???c ph???i th???a hi???p, ch??? ????? c???ng s???n Ba Lan ???? t??? ch???c c??c cu???c b???u c??? b??n t??? do v??o th??ng 6 n??m 1989, trong ???? C??ng ??o??n ??o??n k???t ???? gi??nh ???????c t???t c??? tr??? m???t gh??? trong s??? nh???ng gh??? ???????c tranh c??? t??? do. Trong khi ????, t???i ba n?????c c???ng h??a Baltic (Estonia, Latvia v?? Litva), c??c ???m???t tr???n nh??n d??n??? gi??nh ???????c s??? ???ng h??? r???ng r??i ???? k??u g???i quy???n t??? tr??? nhi???u h??n t??? Li??n X??, v?? s???m b???t ?????u ????i h???i ???????c ?????c l???p ho??n to??n.

V??o ng??y 23/08, hai tri???u ng?????i ???? t???o th??nh m???t h??ng d??i 372 d???m (600 km) tr???i qua Estonia, Latvia, v?? Litva, k??u g???i ?????c l???p. Th???i ??i???m c???a c??i g???i l?? Ph????ng c??ch Baltic (Baltic Way) kh??ng ph???i l?? ng???u nhi??n. ????ng 50 n??m tr?????c ????, Hitler v?? Stalin ???? tham gia m???t hi???p ?????c kh??ng x??m l?????c b?? m???t, theo ???? ????ng ??u s??? b??? ph??n chia gi???a ?????c Qu???c x?? v?? Li??n X??. ??i???u ???? ???? m??? ???????ng cho Th??? chi???n II, v?? ngay l???p t???c ????nh d???u s??? ch???m d???t cho t??? do v?? ?????c l???p c???a c??c n?????c v??ng Baltics.

Nh??ng ?????u tr?????ng trung t??m, c?? kh??? n??ng b??ng n??? v??o n??m 1989 ch??nh l?? C???ng h??a D??n ch??? ?????c  ??? t???c n?????c ????ng ?????c c???ng s???n. ????y v??? c?? b???n l?? m???t nh?? n?????c doanh tr???i, ???????c x??y d???ng ????? b???o v??? n??m t???p ??o??n qu??n Li??n X?? ??? bao g???m 19 s?? ??o??n v?? g???m 500.000 binh s?? ??? v???n ????ng qu??n ??? ???? k??? t??? n??m 1945. M???c d?? B???c t?????ng Berlin ???? tr??? th??nh m???t bi???u t?????ng m???nh m??? c???a s??? chia r??? ch??u ??u sau th??ng 8 n??m 1961, ch??ng ta c???n nh??? l???i t???i sao n?? l???i ???????c d???ng l??n ngay t??? ?????u: ???? l?? nh???m ng??n ch???n s??? s???p ????? c???a CHDC ?????c, v?? theo ???? l?? ????? ch??? h???i ngo???i c???a Li??n X?? ??? ch??u ??u.

V??i ng??y tr?????c khi h??ng ng?????i h??nh th??nh ??? Baltics, kho???ng 600-700 c??ng d??n ????ng ?????c ???? t??? ch???c m???t cu???c bi???u t??nh ??n h??a m?? t???i ???? h??? ???? b??ng qua h??ng r??o th??p gai g???n Sopron, m???t th??? tr???n nh??? c???a Hungary d???c bi??n gi???i v???i ??o. S??? ki???n ???????c g???i l?? Cu???c d?? ngo???i xuy??n ch??u ??u ???? tr??? th??nh cu???c ????o tho??t l???n nh???t t??? ??????ph??a sau B???c m??n s???t k??? t??? khi B???c t?????ng Berlin ???????c d???ng l??n. Ch??nh x??c h??n th?? n?? ???? ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch c???n th???n ????? ki???m tra ph???n ???ng c???a gi???i ch???c Li??n X??.

T???i ??i???n Kremlin, ban l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? ??? hay ??t nh???t l?? Gorbachev ??? ti???p t???c tin r???ng ????? ch??? v???n an to??n v?? c?? th??? ???????c c???i t???. Ph????ng c??ch Baltic ???????c dung th???, v?? cu???c d?? ngo???i xuy??n ch??u ??u ????n gi???n l?? ???????c b??? qua. Nh??ng ti???m n??ng c???a nh???ng cu???c bi???u t??nh ???? ???? s???m tr??? n??n r?? r??ng. H??ng ng??n ng?????i b???t ?????u ch???y tr???n kh???i CHDC ?????c. Ngay sau ????, ch??nh quy???n Hungary kh??ng c??n c??ch n??o kh??c ngo??i vi???c m??? c???a bi??n gi???i. H??ng ??o??n ng?????i ????ng ?????c tr??n v??o Ti???p Kh???c ????? t??m ???????ng sang ph????ng T??y. V??o ng??y 9 th??ng 11, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ????ng ?????c th???m ch?? ???? cho m??? c???a B???c t?????ng Berlin.

Nh?? n?????c ????ng ?????c s??? bi???n m???t trong v??ng ch??a ?????y m???t n??m. Sau cu???c b???u c??? d??n ch??? v??o th??ng 3 n??m 1990, ng?????i ????ng ?????c ???? quy???t ?????nh s??p nh???p v??o C???ng h??a Li??n bang ?????c. Khi ????ng ?????c bi???n m???t, s??? s???p ????? c???a ????? ch??? X?? vi???t ???? g???n nh?? ho??n t???t.

M???t s??? ng?????i ngh?? r???ng s??? thay ?????i tr???ng ?????i b???t ?????u v??o n??m 1989 l?? ??i???u kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i. H??? c???n nh??? r???ng v??o th??ng 6 n??m ????, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o cao ni??n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? tri???n khai xe t??ng ????? nghi???n n??t (theo ????ng ngh??a ??en) phong tr??o ????i t??? do h??a b??nh ??? Qu???ng tr?????ng Thi??n An M??n. V?? c?? r???t nhi???u nh?? l??nh ?????o c???ng s???n ??ang th??c gi???c m???t ???gi???i ph??p Trung Qu???c??? cho c??c cu???c bi???u t??nh n??m 1989. Tr??n th???c t???, t???i s??? ch??? huy c???a qu??n ?????i Li??n X?? ??? ph??a nam Berlin (t???ng l?? trung t??m ?????u n??o c???a Qu??n ?????i ?????c trong Th??? chi???n II, v?? b??? Li??n X?? chi???m t??? tay Hitler m???y th???p ni??n tr?????c), c??c nguy??n so??i H???ng qu??n v???n ??ang ch??? l???nh ti???n qu??n v??o v?? c???u v??n ????? ch??? b???ng m???i c??ch c???n thi???t.

Kh??ng ai c?? th??? bi???t ???????c ??i???u g?? s??? x???y ra n???u c??c l???c l?????ng b???o th??? h??n trong ??i???n Kremlin ???? th???ng th???. Nhi???u kh??? n??ng s??? x???y ra s??? h???n lo???n v?? b???o l???c lan r???ng tr??n h???u kh???p khu v???c, ??i???u s??? khi???n ph????ng T??y ch???u ??p l???c ????ng k??? ph???i can thi???p. Chi???n tranh m??? ???? l?? m???t k???ch b???n r?? r??ng. R???t cu???c, c??c ????? ch??? l???n trong su???t l???ch s??? nh??n chung ?????u tan r?? qua kh??i l???a chi???n tranh. V?? v???y c?? th??? n??i tr?????ng h???p c???a Li??n X?? l?? m???t ngo???i l???.

R???t may, m???nh l???nh ???? cho H???ng qu??n ???? kh??ng bao gi??? ???????c ????a ra. M???t ph???n l?? do l?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? ???? l???m t?????ng r???ng m???t cu???c ????n ??p l?? kh??ng c???n thi???t v?? h??? th???ng s??? t??? t???n t???i. Nh??ng ???? c??ng l?? v?? c??c l???c l?????ng d??n ch??? ???? b???t ?????u kh???ng ?????nh vai tr?? c???a m??nh trong ch??nh n?????c Nga. Nh?? l??nh ?????o ??ang l??n ??? Moskva ch??nh l?? Boris Yeltsin, ng?????i kh??ng h??? mu???n ho??i ni???m v??? m???t ????? ch??? d??n tr???i qu?? m???c v?? kh??ng b???n v???ng.

Ba m????i n??m tr?????c, ch??u ??u ???? tr???i qua m???t v??i th??ng th???c s??? k??? di???u. Ng??y nay, ch??ng ta n??n t??n vinh kh??ng ch??? nh???ng ng?????i ???? ?????u tranh cho s??? thay ?????i, m?? c??? nh???ng ng?????i ???? t??? ch???i ??i???u ?????ng xe t??ng. M??u c?? th??? ???? ch???y tr??n tr??n ???????ng ph??? ch??u ??u m???t l???n n???a, nh??ng ??i???u ???? ???? kh??ng x???y ra.

Carl Bildt l?? ngo???i tr?????ng Th???y ??i???n t??? n??m 2006 ?????n th??ng 10 n??m 2014, v?? l?? Th??? t?????ng trong giai ??o???n 1991-1994, khi ??ng ????m ph??n cho vi???c Th???y ??i???n gia nh???p EU. L?? nh?? ngo???i giao qu???c t??? n???i ti???ng, ??ng t???ng ?????m tr??ch ch???c v??? ?????c s??? c???a EU ??? Nam T?? c??, ?????i di???n c???p cao v??? v???n ????? Bosnia v?? Herzegovina, ?????c s??? c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c ??? khu v???c Balkan, v?? l?? ?????ng Ch??? t???ch c???a H???i ngh??? H??a b??nh Dayton. 
 

Mohammed Ali Jinnah ??? ???Qu???c ph?????? c???a Pakistan

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Ngu???n: Historic figures, BBC (truy c???p ng??y 25/5/2015)

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Ph???m H???ng Anh                                        

Jinnah (1876-1948) l?? m???t ch??nh kh??ch ng?????i ???n ?????. ??ng ???? ?????u tranh th??nh c??ng cho m???t qu???c gia Pakistan ?????c l???p v?? tr??? th??nh l??nh ?????o ?????u ti??n c???a ?????t n?????c n??y. ??ng ???????c g???i v???i t??n ???Quaid-I Azam??? hay ???L??nh t??? v?? ?????i???.

Mohammed Ali Jinnah sinh ng??y 25 th??ng 12 n??m 1876 t???i Karachi, nay thu???c Pakistan nh??ng khi ???? thu???c ???n ????? ??? thu???c ?????a c???a Anh. Cha c???a ??ng l?? m???t l??i bu??n H???i gi??o gi??u c??.

Jinnah theo h???c t???i ?????i h???c Bombay v?? tr?????ng n???i tr?? Lincoln ??? London. Sau ???? ??ng h??nh ngh??? lu???t kh?? th??nh c??ng t???i Bombay. ??ng l?? m???t th??nh vi??n c???a ?????ng Qu???c ?????i ???n ?????, t??? ch???c ?????u tranh gi??nh l???i quy???n t??? tr??? t??? ????? qu???c Anh, v?? gia nh???p Li??n ??o??n H???i gi??o ???n ????? n??m 1913. Li??n ??o??n ???????c th??nh l???p m???t v??i n??m tr?????c ????? ?????i di???n cho l???i ??ch c???a nh???ng ng?????i ???n ????? theo ?????o H???i trong m???t ?????t n?????c m?? ?????o Hindu chi???m ??a s???. ?????n n??m 1916 ??ng ???????c b???u l??m ch??? t???ch Li??n ??o??n.

N??m 1920, ?????ng Qu???c ?????i ???n ????? ti???n h??nh m???t phong tr??o kh??ng h???p t??c nh???m t???y chay m???i ho???t ?????ng c???a ch??nh quy???n Anh t???i ???n ?????. Jinnah ph???n ?????i ch??nh s??ch n??y v?? r???i kh???i ?????ng. Nh???ng kh??c bi???t c???t l??i gi???a ?????ng Qu???c ?????i v?? Li??n ??o??n H???i gi??o ???? xu???t hi???n.

Sau cu???c b???u c??? c??c t???nh n??m 1937, ?????ng Qu???c ?????i t??? ch???i h??nh th??nh ch??nh quy???n li??n minh v???i Li??n ??o??n H???i gi??o trong nhi???u l??nh v???c kh??c nhau. Quan h??? gi???a ng?????i theo ?????o Hindu v?? ng?????i theo ?????o H???i b???t ?????u xu???ng d???c. N??m 1940, trong m???t phi??n h???p c???a Li??n ??o??n H???i gi??o ??? Lahore, y??u c???u ch??nh th???c ?????u ti??n l?? vi???c chia c???t ???n ????? v?? l???p n??n m???t nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o Pakistan. Jinnah lu??n tin v??o t??nh kh??? thi c???a vi???c th???ng nh???t kh???i ??o??n k???t Hindu-H???i gi??o, nh??ng ??ng l???i mi???n c?????ng cho r???ng vi???c t??ch ra l?? c???n thi???t ????? b???o ?????m quy???n l???i c???a nh???ng ng?????i ???n ????? theo ?????o H???i.

??ng ki??n quy???t theo ??u???i v???n ????? n??y qua c??c cu???c ????m ph??n v???i ch??nh ph??? Anh, v?? k???t qu??? l?? s??? h??nh th??nh c???a nh?? n?????c Pakistan t??ch ra t??? ???n ????? v??o ng??y 14 th??ng 8 n??m 1947. S??? ki???n n??y di???n ra trong b???i c???nh b???o l???c gia t??ng gi???a ng?????i theo ?????o H???i, ?????o Hindu v?? ?????o Sikh, v?? m???t s??? l?????ng l???n ng?????i d??n di chuy???n gi???a hai n?????c Pakistan v?? ???n ????? khi???n h??ng tr??m ngh??n ng?????i ch???t.

Jinnah tr??? th??nh th???ng ?????c to??n quy???n ?????u ti??n c???a Pakistan. ??ng qua ?????i ng??y 11 th??ng 9 n??m 1948 v?? b???nh lao ph???i.
 

23/08/1939: X??????????c k?? hi???p ?????c b???t t????ng x??m

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Ngu???n: ???The Hitler-Stalin Pact,??? History.com (truy c???p ng??y 22/8/2015).

Bi??n d???ch & Hi???u ????nh: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng

B??i li??n quan: Hitler v?? Stalin: ???Li??n minh ma qu???????

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1939, ?????c v?? Li??n X?? ???? k?? m???t hi???p ?????c kh??ng x??m l?????c l???n nhau, khi???n c??? th??? gi???i ph???i b???t ng??? do hai n?????c v???n c?? h??? t?? t?????ng ?????i ngh???ch. Tuy nhi??n, b???t ch???p v??? b??? ngo??i, c??? hai nh?? l??nh ?????o c???a hai n?????c ?????u l???i d???ng hi???p ?????c n??y nh?? m???t con b??i ch??nh tr??? c???a ri??ng h???.

Sau khi ?????c Qu???c x?? x??m l?????c Ti???p Kh???c n??m 1938, Anh ph???i quy???t ?????nh xem li???u n?????c n??y n??n can thi???p t???i ????u n???u nh?? Hitler m??? r???ng cu???c x??m l?????c c???a ?????c. Th??? t?????ng Anh Neville Chamberlain ban ?????u th??? ?? tr?????c vi???c Hitler th??n t??n Sudetenland, v??ng ?????t c?? nhi???u ng?????i d??n n??i ti???ng ?????c c???a Ti???p Kh???c, nay ?????t nhi??n nh???n th???c ???????c t??nh h??nh khi Ba Lan b??? ??e d???a.

??ng cho r???ng Anh c?? ngh??a v??? tr??? gi??p Ba Lan n???u ?????c ti???n h??nh x??m l?????c n?????c n??y. Nh??ng ??ng c??ng mu???n v?? c???n c?? m???t ?????ng minh. ?????t n?????c r???ng l???n duy nh???t c?? th??? ng??n ch???n Hitler v?? c?? l???i khi l??m nh?? v???y ch??nh l?? Li??n X??. Nh??ng Stalin ???? l???nh nh???t v???i Anh sau khi nh???ng n??? l???c c???a ??ng nh???m t???o li??n minh ch??nh tr??? v???i Anh v?? Ph??p ????? ch???ng l???i ?????c ???? b??? ch???i t??? tr?????c ???? m???t n??m. H??n n???a, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Ba Lan c??ng ch???ng vui v??? g?? v???i vi???n c???nh Li??n X?? tr??? th??nh ng?????i gi??m h??? c???a ?????t n?????c h???; v???i h???, ??i???u ???? ????n gi???n ch??? l?? b??? m???t ch??? ????? ma qu??? kh??c chi???m ????ng.

Phim t??i li???u v??? Hi???p ?????c X?? ??? ?????c 1939. Ngu???n: Youtube.com

Hitler tin r???ng Anh s??? kh??ng bao gi??? ????n ph????ng ch???ng l???i n?????c ?????c, v???y n??n ??ng quy???t ?????nh d???p ??i n???i lo s??? v?? gh?? t???m ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ????? l??m th??n v???i nh?? l??nh ?????o ?????c t??i Li??n X??, t??? ???? l??m h???ng c??c k??? ho???ch c???a Anh. C??? ?????c v?? Li??n X?? ?????u nghi ng??? l???n nhau, v?? c??? g???ng t??m ra nh???ng ?????ng c?? ???n c???a nhau. Nh??ng Hitler ??ang v???i; ??ng bi???t n???u mu???n x??m l?????c Ba Lan th?? ??ng bu???c ph???i h??nh ?????ng nhanh ch??ng, tr?????c khi ph????ng T??y c?? th??? t???o ra m???t m???t tr???n th???ng nh???t.

V??? c?? b???n, ?????c ch???p thu???n c???t m???t ph???n ????ng ??u cho Li??n X?? v?? hai b??n kh??ng can thi???p l???n nhau trong qu?? tr??nh n??y. Ngo???i tr?????ng c???a Hitler l?? Joachim von Ribbentrop ???? bay t???i Moskva ????? k?? m???t hi???p ?????c b???t t????ng x??m v???i ng?????i ?????ng c???p Li??n X?? c???a m??nh, Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Molotov (????y l?? l?? do t???i sao hi???p ?????c n??y c??n ???????c g???i l?? Hi???p ?????c Ribbentrop???Molotov). C??i nh??n l??ng m???n c???a nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ch??? ngh??a B??n-s??-v??ch tr??n kh???p th??? gi???i v??? ???ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i qu???c t?????? ???? b??? h???y ho???i; h??? c???m th???y b??? s??? nh???c tr?????c vi???c Stalin c?? th??? li??n minh v???i nh?? ?????c t??i ph??t x??t.

Nh??ng khi Ba Lan ???? tr??? th??nh l??nh th??? chi???m ????ng c???a ?????c, li??n minh t???n t???i ???????c ch???ng bao l??u n???a khi v??o ng??y 22 th??ng 6 n??m 1941, ?????c m??? Chi???n d???ch Barbarossa, ch??nh th???c x??m l?????c Li??n X??.

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