M??? n??n th??c ?????y d??n ch??? ??? Nga v?? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o?

Thứ sáu - 09/08/2019 22:07
Kh??ng c?? m???t bi???n ph??p k??? thu???t n??o c?? th??? gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? g??y thi???t h???i cho ti???n tr??nh th??c ?????y d??n ch??? . V???n ????? l?? r???t l???n, s??u s???c v?? ???? t???n t???i t??? l??u. Do ???? gi???i ph??p c??ng ph???i d??i h??i nh?? th???. Tr?????c ti??n, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o M??? ph???i nh???n th???c r???ng h??? ??ang m???t l???n n???a ?????ng gi???a cu???c c???nh tranh to??n c???u v??? c??c gi?? tr??? v?? t?? t?????ng. C??? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c v?? ??i???n Kremlin ?????u ??ang chi???n ?????u quy???t li???t v?? b???t ch???p.
M??? n??n th??c ?????y d??n ch??? ??? Nga v?? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o?

M??? n??n th??c ?????y d??n ch??? ??? Nga v?? Trung Qu???c nh?? th??? n??o?

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Ngu???n: Larry Diamond, ???Democracy Demotion??? Foreign Affairs, July/August 2019.

Bi??n d???ch: ????? ?????ng Nh???t Huy | Bi??n t???p: L?? H???ng Hi???p

T??i kh???i ?????ng vi???c th??c ?????y d??n ch???

Kh??ng c?? m???t bi???n ph??p k??? thu???t n??o c?? th??? gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? g??y thi???t h???i cho ti???n tr??nh th??c ?????y d??n ch??? . V???n ????? l?? r???t l???n, s??u s???c v?? ???? t???n t???i t??? l??u. Do ???? gi???i ph??p c??ng ph???i d??i h??i nh?? th???. Tr?????c ti??n, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o M??? ph???i nh???n th???c r???ng h??? ??ang m???t l???n n???a ?????ng gi???a cu???c c???nh tranh to??n c???u v??? c??c gi?? tr??? v?? t?? t?????ng. C??? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c v?? ??i???n Kremlin ?????u ??ang chi???n ?????u quy???t li???t v?? b???t ch???p. Chi???n thu???t trung t??m c???a Kremlin l?? b??c b??? vi???c t???n t???i s??? th???t kh??ch quan, ch??? ?????ng n??i ?????n c??c gi?? tr??? ph??? qu??t. N???u kh??ng t???n t???i s??? th???t kh??ch quan, v?? kh??ng c?? gi?? tr??? ?????o ?????c n??o s??u s???c h??n b???n th??n quy???n l???c, th?? k??? n??i d???i v?? ?????i nh???t s??? th???ng ??? v?? d?? nhi??n ???? l?? Putin. Gi???i l??nh ?????o c???a Trung Qu???c th?? ??ang ch??i m???t cu???c ch??i d??i h??i h??n: th??m nh???p v??o c??c x?? h???i d??n ch??? v?? ch???m r??i l??m suy y???u ch??ng t??? b??n trong. H??? c?? trong tay nhi???u th??? ph??p h??n, c??ng v???i m???t n???n t???ng t??i l???c m???nh h??n h???n Nga ??? trong ???? quan tr???ng nh???t l?? m???ng l?????i kh???ng l??? c??c c?? nh??n v?? t??? ch???c thu???c ?????ng C???ng s???n, nh?? n?????c v?? c??c ch??? th??? phi ch??nh ph???.

?????u tranh ch???ng l???i c??c chi???n d???ch chuy??n ch??? th??m ?????c nh???m b??p m??o th??ng tin, x??m nh???p x?? h???i, v?? chi???n tranh ?? th???c h??? s??? l?? t???i quan tr???ng ?????i v???i vi???c b???o v??? d??n ch???. C??c ch??nh ph??? d??n ch??? ph???i b???t ?????u b???ng vi???c gi??o d???c ng?????i d??n c???a h???, gi???i truy???n th??ng ?????i ch??ng, c??c tr?????ng ?????i h???c, vi???n nghi??n c???u, c??c c??ng ty, ch??nh quy???n ?????a ph????ng,  c??ng nh?? c??c c???ng ?????ng ki???u b??o v??? m???i nguy h???i t??? c??c chi???n d???ch chuy??n ch??? nh???m g??y ???nh h?????ng n??y v?? s??? c???n thi???t c???a s??? ???c???nh gi??c mang t??nh x??y d???ng???, theo l???i b??o c??o ???China???s Influence and American Instruments??? (???nh h?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c v?? c??c c??ng c??? c???a Hoa K???) ??? m???t b??o c??o n??m 2018 c???a nh??m c??c chuy??n gia v??? Trung Qu???c ???????c so???n b???i Vi???n Hoover v?? Asia Society ??? m?? trong ???? t??i l?? ?????ng bi??n t???p v???i Orville Schell. Bi???n ph??p ph???n ???ng ph???i mang t??nh x??y d???ng, theo ???? n?? ph???i tr??nh th??? hi???n th??i ????? ph???n ???ng th??i qu?? hay ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c c???c ??oan, ?????ng th???i t??m c??ch ?????y m???nh c??c gi?? tr??? d??n ch??? nhi???u nh???t c?? th???. Song c??c bi???n ph??p n??y ph???i ????? cao c???nh gi??c trong vi???c ph??t hi???n v?? gi??m s??t c??c n??? l???c ??? h???i ngo???i c???a Nga v?? Trung Qu???c nh???m khu???ch tr????ng ???nh h?????ng c???a h???.  Do ????, c??c x?? h???i d??n ch??? ph???i tr?????c sau minh b???ch m???t c??ch nghi??m ng???t trong m???i h???p ?????ng, t??i tr???, trao ?????i gi???a c??c c?? quan v?? c??c quan h??? kh??c v???i Nga, Trung Qu???c. ?????ng th???i, c??c n???n d??n ch??? n??n ????i h???i s??? ???c?? ??i c?? l???i??? nhi???u h??n t??? hai n?????c n??y: v?? d???, h??? kh??ng th??? cho c??c b??o, ????i ph??t s??ng ???????c cho l?? ????????c l???p??? c???a c??c n?????c chuy??n ch??? n??y quy???n t??? do ho???t ?????ng kh??ng gi???i h???n ??? n?????c h???, trong khi b??o ch?? c???a h??? th?? b??? ki???m ch??? nghi??m ng???t, b??? t??? ch???i visa; c??n c??c m???ng tin t???c truy???n h??nh c??p c???a h??? th?? ho??n to??n b??? c???m ph??t s??ng ??? Nga v?? Trung Qu???c. C??c n???n d??n ch???, c??c ?????nh ch??? d??n ch??? nh?? c??c tr?????ng ?????i h???c v?? vi???n nghi??n c???u c??ng ph???i h???p t??c s??u s??t h??n c??ng nhau nh???m chia s??? th??ng tin v?? c??ng b???o v??? ch??nh m??nh tr?????c c??c chi???n thu???t ???chia ????? tr??????.

Kh??ng ch??? v???y, Hoa K??? ph???i ph???c h???i s??? hi???n di???n, c??ng nh?? n??ng cao hi???u bi???t v??? c??c qu???c gia ??? tuy???n ?????u c???a tr???n chi???n quy???n l???c m???m v???i c??c nh?? n?????c chuy??n ch???. ??i???u n??y ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c c???n ?????y m???nh c??c ch????ng tr??nh nh?? h???c b???ng Fulbright (c??i m?? ch??nh quy???n Trump li??n t???c k??u g???i c???t gi???m); h???c b???ng Boren, t???c ch????ng tr??nh t??i tr??? c??c sinh vi??n M??? ??i h???c c??c ng??n ng??? thi???t y???u ??? n?????c ngo??i; c??ng c??c ch????ng tr??nh kh??c c???a B??? Ngo???i Giao nh???m g???i ng?????i M??? ?????n s???ng, l??m vi???c, gi???ng d???y, tr??nh di???n, v?? h???c t???p ??? n?????c ngo??i. N?????c M??? c??ng n??n t??i ch??o ????n ng?????i d??n t??? c??c qu???c gia ???y ??? ch???ng h???n nh?? b???ng c??ch ????a ?????n M??? nhi???u h??n n???a c??c nh?? b??o, chuy??n gia ch??nh s??ch, l??nh ?????o x?? h???i d??n s???, c??c d??n bi???u d??n c???, v?? quan ch???c ch??nh ph??? trong khu??n kh??? c??c ch????ng tr??nh h???p t??c v?? ????o t???o. ????y ch??nh x??c kh??ng ph???i l?? l??c ????? n?????c M??? h?????ng v??o trong v?? ????ng c??nh c???a c???a h??? ?????i v???i ng?????i n?????c ngo??i, tuy??n b??? r???ng h??? c???n t???p trung v??o c??c v???n ????? c???a m??nh.

????? ?????i ch???i l???i v???i b??? m??y tuy??n truy???n to??n c???u c???a Nga v?? Trung Qu???c, Hoa K??? s??? c???n ph???i t??i kh???i ?????ng v?? m??? r???ng m???nh m??? c??c n??? l???c ngo???i giao c??ng ch??ng. Trung Qu???c ??ang kh??ng ng???n ng???i t??m c??ch kh???ng ch??? quan ??i???m c???a th??? gi???i v??? h???, v??? c??c ?? ?????nh c???a h???, v?? v??? m?? h??nh qu???n tr??? c???a h???. Trong khi ???? Nga c??ng ??ang lan truy???n th??ng ??i???p c???a m??nh ??? ????? cao n?????c Nga v?? Putin nh?? nh???ng ng?????i b???o v??? cho c??c gi?? tr??? Ki T?? Gi??o truy???n th???ng trong th???i ?????i c???a quy???n c???a ng?????i ?????ng t??nh, ch??? ngh??a n??? quy???n, v?? ??a nguy??n v??n h??a ??? b??n c???nh th??i ????? xem th?????ng ?????i v???i d??n ch??? v?? nh???ng l???i n??i d???i tr???ng tr???n v??? Hoa K???. Washington ph???i tr??? ????n b???ng c??c chi???n d???ch th??ng tin ???????c ??o ni cho ph?? h???p v???i c??c b???i c???nh ?????a ph????ng v?? c?? th??? nhanh ch??ng ch???m ?????n ng?????i d??n nh???m th??? hi???n c??c gi?? tr??? c???a m??nh. ?????ng th???i, h??? c??ng ph???i ti???n h??nh m???t cu???c tranh ?????u d??i h??i nh???m lan truy???n c??c gi?? tr???, t?? t?????ng, ki???n th???c, v?? kinh nghi???m c???a nh???ng ng?????i ???????c s???ng trong c??c x?? h???i t??? do. H??? ph???i v???n d???ng c??c c??ch th???c s??ng t???o ????? v?????t t?????ng l???a Internet v?? xuy??n th???ng m??i tr?????ng chuy??n ch??? ??? ch???ng h???n nh?? lan truy???n c??c video v?? b??i vi???t ????? cao d??n ch??? b???ng ti???ng ?????a ph????ng qua USB. N?????c M??? c??ng ph???i t???o ra c??c c??ng c??? m???i nh???m gi??p ????? ng?????i d??n ??? c??c ch??? ????? chuy??n ch??? m???t c??ch an to??n, ?????ng th???i c???n tr???ng v?????t qua ki???m duy???t v?? ki???m so??t Internet.

M??? t???ng c?? m???t c??ng c??? r???t h???u d???ng trong c??c cu???c chi???n v??? th??ng tin v?? t?? t?????ng: S??? Th??ng tin Hoa K??? (USIA). Song, v??o n??m 1999, c?? quan n??y ???? b??? ch???m d???t ho???t ?????ng trong m???t th???a thu???n gi???a ch??nh quy???n Clinton v?? Th?????ng Ngh??? s?? ?????ng C???ng H??a c???a bang North Carolina Jesse Helms, ng?????i k??u g???i gi???m b???t can d??? c???a Hoa K??? ??? n?????c ngo??i. Nh???m ti???p t???c duy tr?? ng??n s??ch cho can d??? c???a M??? ??? h???i ngo???i, ch??nh quy???n Clinton ???? mi???n c?????ng ????ng c???a USIA. Ng??n s??ch v?? c??c ho???t ?????ng c???a t??? ch???c n??y ???????c chuy???n sang ??? ch??a bao gi??? th???t s??? hi???u qu?????? cho B??? Ngo???i Giao, khi???n m???t c??ng c??? thi???t y???u trong vi???c th??c ?????y d??n ch??? b??? ???nh h?????ng nghi??m tr???ng. ?????n n??m 2016, ch??nh quy???n Obama th??nh l???p Trung t??m Can d??? To??n c???u (Global Engagement Center), m???t nh??m n???m trong B??? Ngo???i Giao c?? nhi???m v??? ch???ng l???i c??c ho???t ?????ng tuy??n truy???n v?? b??p m??o th??ng tin t??? n?????c ngo??i. Tuy nhi??n, Rex Tillerson, Ngo???i tr?????ng ?????u ti??n c???a Trump, ???? kh??ng s??? d???ng h???t c??c ngu???n l???c ???????c ph??n b???; v?? s??ng ki???n n??y ?????n nay m???i l???y ???????c ???? ho???t ?????ng nh??? c??ng c???a Ngo???i tr?????ng m???i Mike Pompeo, ng?????i hi???u t???m quan tr???ng c???a c?? quan n??y.

C??i m?? n?????c M??? c???n l??c n??y kh??ng ch??? l?? m???t ch????ng tr??nh ????n nh???t m?? l?? c??? m???t c?? quan th??ng tin v???i ?????i ng?? chuy??n gia th??ng tin l??m vi???c l??u d??i, nhanh nh???y, c?? s??ng t???o c??ng ngh??? ??? hay nh?? l???i James Clapper, c???u Gi??m ?????c T??nh b??o Qu???c gia ??? l?? ???m???t USIA ??? m???c t???i ??a???. M???c ????ch c???a vi???c t??i l???p USIA kh??ng ph???i l?? nh???m ????nh b???i Trung Qu???c hay Nga trong cu???c chi???n ???b??p m??o th??ng tin???. M???t kh??c, c?? quan n??y ???  c??ng v???i C?? quan Truy???n th??ng To??n c???u Hoa K??? (USAGM), ????n v??? qu???n l?? c??c ????i ph??t s??ng h???i ngo???i ?????c l???p c???a M??? nh?? ????i Ti???ng n??i Hoa K???, ????i Ch??u ??u T??? do/Radio T??? do ??? s??? th???c thi ch??m ng??n c???a nh?? b??o n???i ti???ng Edward R.Murrow, gi??m ?????c USIA d?????i th???i T???ng th???ng Kenedy, r???ng ???S??? th???t l?? l???i tuy??n truy???n t???t nh???t v?? n??i d???i l?? c??ch tuy??n truy???n t??? nh???t???. V?? s??? th???t l?? con ng?????i mu???n s???ng trong t??? do. C??ch hi???u qu??? nh???t ????? ch???ng l???i ch????ng tr??nh tuy??n truy???n c???a Nga v?? Trung Qu???c l?? ph??i b??y c??ch m?? hai qu???c gia kh???ng l??? n??y th???t s??? ???????c cai tr???. Nh???ng s??? th???t v?? ph??n t??ch n??y sau ???? ph???i ???????c truy???n b?? m???t c??ch r???ng r??i v?? s??ng t???o trong l??ng n?????c Nga v?? Trung Qu???c, trong c??c x?? h???i kh??p k??n, ngo??i ra l?? c??? c??c x?? h???i m??? h??n, m?? v?? ???nh h?????ng c???a c??c n??? l???c tuy??n truy???n t??? Nga v?? Trung Qu???c, ???? kh??ng c??n nh???n th???c ???????c ????ng v?? th???t b???n ch???t c???a hai ch??? ????? n??y.

Minh b???ch c??ng c?? th??? ????ng m???t vai tr?? trong cu???c chi???n v?? d??n ch???. ??i???m y???u c???a m???i ch??? ????? chuy??n ch???, bao g???m Nga v?? Trung Qu???c, l?? n???n tham nh??ng s??u s???c v?? kh?? ch???a c???a h???. Kh??ng m???t qu???c gia n??o c?? th??? ki???m so??t ???????c tham nh??ng n???u kh??ng x??y d???ng nh?? n?????c ph??p quy???n. Nh??ng ??i???u ???? s??? l?? kh??ng t?????ng ?????i v???i hai n?????c n??y ??? b???i l??? ??? Trung Qu???c, ??i???u ???y c?? ngh??a l?? ?????t ?????ng C???ng s???n d?????i m???t c?? quan t?? ph??p ?????c l???p, v?? b???i ??? Nga, ch??? ????? hi???n t???i l?? m???t t???p ??o??n t???i ph???m c?? t??? ch???c ??ang gi??? trang nh?? m???t nh?? n?????c. Song c??c n???n d??n ch??? d???n ?????u v???n c?? m???t v??i con b??i trong tay m??nh, b???i l??? ph???n l???n s??? t??i s???n c?? nh??n k???ch x?? t??ch l??y ???????c t??? c??c ho???t ?????ng tham nh??ng ???????c ????? v??o c??c nh?? b??ng, c??c c???u tr??c t???p ??o??n, v?? th??? tr?????ng b???t ?????ng s???n ??? ch??u ??u v?? M??? th??ng qua c??c k??? h??? ph??p l?? v?? ch??? l??m l???i cho m???t s??? ??t c?? ?????c quy???n. Nh???ng k??? h??? n??y cho ph??p c??c nh?? ?????c t??i c??ng th??n h???u c???a h??? che gi???u v?? r???a c??c kho???n ti???n b???n th??ng qua c??c c??ng ty ma v?? c??c giao d???ch b???t ?????ng s???n ???n danh. N?????c M???, v??? ph???n h???, c?? th??? ra c??c ?????o lu???t ch???m d???t nh???ng chi??u th???c n??y ????n gi???n b???ng c??ch y??u c???u m???i c??ng ty, m???i ????ng k?? ???y th??c, v?? m???i giao d???ch b???t ?????ng s???n ??? Hoa K??? ph???i khai b??o ng?????i ch??? s??? h???u th???t s???. H??? c??ng c?? th??? c???m c??c c???u quan ch???c v?? ngh??? s?? Hoa K??? tham gia v???n ?????ng h??nh lang cho c??c ch??nh ph??? n?????c ngo??i, ?????ng th???i c???i thi???n th???m quy???n ph??p l?? v?? ngu???n l???c c???a c??c c?? quan nh?? M???ng l?????i Thi h??nh ph??p lu???t ch???ng T???i ph???m T??i ch??nh (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network) c???a B??? T??i Ch??nh nh???m ph??t hi???n v?? truy t??? ho???t ?????ng r???a ti???n.

Cu???i c??ng, n???u n?????c M??? mu???n th???ng cu???c chi???n to??n c???u v?? d??n ch???, h??? s??? ph???i kh???i ?????u t??? ??? nh??. Ng?????i d??n tr??n to??n c???u ph???i m???t l???n n???a th???y n?????c M??? nh?? m???t n???n d??n ch??? x???ng ????ng cho h??? noi theo. ??i???u n??y s??? kh??ng x???y ra n???u Qu???c h???i ti???p t???c b??? t???c, n???u c??c cu???c b???u c??? ti???p t???c ph??? thu???c v??o ???ti???n ??en???, n???u hai ?????ng ti???p t???c thao t??ng ph???m vi ?????a l?? c??c ????n v??? b???u c??? m???t c??ch tr?? tr???n nh???m t???i ??a h??a ??u th??? ?????ng ph???i, v?? n???u m???t ?????ng n??o ???? tr??? n??n g???n li???n v???i c??c n??? l???c kh??ng khoan nh?????ng nh???m ??p ch??? l?? phi???u c???a c??c s???c t???c thi???u s???.

T???m g????ng M???

????y kh??ng ph???i l???n ?????u ti??n t??? do to??n c???u ??? v??o th??? b??? ??e d???a. Quay tr??? l???i n??m 1946, khi Chi???n Tranh L???nh ??ang ?????n g???n, nh?? ngo???i giao George Kennan ???? g???i ???B???c ??i???n d??i??? n???i ti???ng c???a ??ng t??? ?????i S??? qu??n M??? ??? Moskva. Kennan h???i th??c ng?????i M??? ph???i nh???n th???c r?? v??? b???n ch???t kh??ng r?? r??ng c???a m???i ??e d???a chuy??n ch???, c???ng c??? quy???t t??m v?? n??ng l???c qu??n s??? t???p th??? c???a c??c n???n d??n ch??? nh???m ?????i ch???i v?? ?????y l??i tham v???ng chuy??n ch???, ?????ng th???i l??m m???i th??? c?? th??? ????? t??ch c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o chuy??n ch??? tham nh??ng kh???i ng?????i d??n c???a h???.

Song Kennan c??ng hi???u r???ng: t??i s???n l???n nh???t c???a n?????c M??? ch??nh l?? n???n d??n ch??? c???a h???, r???ng h??? ph???i t??m ???????c ???l??ng d??ng c???m v?? s??? t??? tin??? ????? gi??? v???ng ni???m tin c???a h???, tr??nh tr??? n??n ???gi???ng nh?? k??? h??? ??ang ?????i ?????u???. Kennan khuy???n c??o: ???m???i bi???n ph??p d??ng c???m v?? t??o b???o nh???m gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? n???i t???i c???a x?? h???i ch??ng ta??? ?????u l?? m???t chi???n th???ng ngo???i giao tr?????c Moskva, ????ng gi?? nh?? h??ng ng??n c??ng h??m ngo???i giao v?? th??ng c??o chung???.

Ng??y nay, khi n?????c M??? ?????u tranh v???i kh??ng ch??? m???t m?? hai ?????i th??? chuy??n ch??? ?????y quy???t t??m, nh???ng khuy???n ngh??? c???a Kennan r???t x???ng ????ng ???????c nh??? t???i. Hoa K??? ??ang ?????ng tr?????c m???t b??? v???c, ?????i m???t v???i m???t th???i ??i???m m?? t??? do v?? d??n ch??? s??? b??? th??? th??ch. N?????c M??? v???n l?? n???n d??n ch??? kh??ng th??? thi???u trong h??? th???ng kh???ng l??? c??c li??n minh v?? t??? ch???c c???a th??? gi???i. Gi??? ????y, h??n m???i l??c n??o kh??c , s??? ph???n c???a n???n d??n ch??? M??? c?? m???i li??n h??? m???t thi???t v???i cu???c ?????u tranh to??n c???u cho t??? do. V?? k???t qu??? c???a cu???c ?????u tranh ???y ph??? thu???c v??o c??ch m?? ng?????i M??? h???i ph???c l???i ph???m ch???t c???a n???n d??n ch??? c???a m??nh c??ng nh?? ni???m tin c???a h??? v??o gi?? tr??? v?? nh???ng h???a h???n c???a n???n d??n ch??? ???y.

Larry Diamond l?? Gi??o s?? Khoa h???c Ch??nh tr??? v?? X?? h???i h???c t???i ?????i h???c Stanford, ?????ng th???i l?? Nghi??n c???u vi??n cao c???p t???i Vi???n Hoover v?? Vi???n Freeman Spogli.

 

???? ?????n l??c h???p t??c h??ng h???i M???-ASEAN tr??n Bi???n ????ng

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060508-N-4166B-030

Ngu???n: Richard Javad Heydarian & Truong-Minh Vu, ???South China Sea: Time for US-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation,??? RSIS Commentary No. 094, 20/4/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng | Hi???u ????nh: Tr????ng Minh Huy V??

Nh???ng ho???t ?????ng x??y d???ng g???p r??t c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n Bi???n ????ng ???? t??ng c?????ng h??n n???a c??c tranh ch???p h??ng h???i ??ang di???n ra gi???a B???c Kinh v?? c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng ????ng Nam ??, ?????c bi???t l?? Philippines v?? Vi???t Nam. Kh??ng ch??? l??m ph???c t???p th??m b???n ch???t c???a c??c tranh ch???p ??ang di???n ra g??y ph????ng h???i t???i c??c qu???c gia kh??c c??ng c?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n, c??c ho???t ?????ng c???i t???o ?????t c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n Bi???n ????ng c??n b??o hi???u cho s??? hung h??ng ng??y c??ng t??ng v??? m???t qu??n s??? c???a n?????c n??y, khi m?? Qu??n Gi???i ph??ng Nh??n d??n Trung Qu???c ??ang h?????ng t???i ???ph??ng th??? ngo???i vi??? v?? c???ng c??? chi???u s??u chi???n l?????c c???a n?? trong khu v???c.

Nh???ng h??n ?????o nh??n t???o c???a Trung Qu???c ??ang c???ng c??? s??? hi???n di???n v???n ???? ???????c m??? r???ng c???a n?? ??? c??c v??ng bi???n tranh ch???p, th???c hi???n ?????i chi???n l?????c l???n h??n l?? th???ng tr??? c??c v??ng bi???n g???n, ?????c bi???t l?? c??c tuy???n giao th??ng ???????ng bi???n quan tr???ng (SLOC) nh?? t???i Bi???n ????ng. C??c ho???t ?????ng x??y d???ng ??ang di???n ra r???t c?? th??? m??? ???????ng cho vi???c th??nh l???p m???t V??ng nh???n d???ng ph??ng kh??ng (ADIZ) c???a Trung Qu???c trong khu v???c, v???i vi???c B???c Kinh ???? ho??n th??nh m???t m???ng l?????i bao g???m c??c ???????ng b??ng v?? c??c ????n v??? ?????n tr?? qu??n s??? tr??n c??c chu???i ?????o ??? Ho??ng Sa v?? Tr?????ng Sa. [C??c ho???t ?????ng n??y] c?? nh???ng t??c ?????ng th???c s??? t???i t??? do h??ng h???i v?? th????ng quy???n v???n t???i h??ng kh??ng trong khu v???c.

L???c l?????ng h???i qu??n ??a ph????ng

Ng??y c??ng nhi???u lo ng???i n???i l??n ??? ?????c bi???t l?? ??? Manila v?? H?? N???i ???  v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c s???  can thi???p v??o ho???t ?????ng c???a c??c qu???c gia ven bi???n kh??c trong c??c l??nh v???c h???i gi??m v?? nghi??n c???u, c??c ho???t ?????ng khai th??c h???i s???n, c??ng nh?? th??m d?? v?? ph??t tri???n d???u kh?? ??? Bi???n ????ng. C?? b???n nh???t, nh???ng h??nh ?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c l?? m???t th??ch th???c tr???c ti???p ?????i v???i nh???ng tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n c???a c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng, ph?? ho???i kh??? n??ng th???c thi quy???n t??i ph??n ?????y ?????, theo C??ng ?????c Li??n H???p Qu???c v??? Lu???t bi???n (UNCLOS), trong v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? (EEZ) v?? th???m l???c ?????a c???a h???.

V???n ????? ??ang b??? ??e d???a ch??nh l?? nh???ng l???i ??ch s???ng c??n c???a m???t s??? qu???c gia ASEAN v?? ??u th??? h???i qu??n c???a M??? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng. T??nh h??nh hi???n t???i ????i h???i M??? ph???i c?? m???t chi???n l?????c m???nh m??? h??n do n??ng l???c h???n ch??? c???a c??c n?????c ????ng Nam ?? c?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n ??? Bi???n ????ng trong vi???c ki???m ch??? s??? hung h??ng c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i nh???ng y??u s??ch c???a h???.

Nh??ng M??? kh??ng c???n thi???t ph???i h??nh ?????ng ????n ph????ng, v?? n?????c n??y c??ng kh??ng n??n ph???n ???ng ch??? y???u b???ng qu??n s???. Ph????ng ??n t???t nh???t l?? m???t c??ch ti???p c???n h???p t??c, theo ???? Washington n??n t???n d???ng ???s???c m???nh t???p h???p??? ?????c ????o c???a m??nh  ????? th??nh l???p m???t li??n minh c??c l???c l?????ng nh???m ?????m b???o s??? ???n ?????nh h??ng h???i trong khu v???c.

Trong m???t cu???c h???p v???i l??nh ?????o h???i qu??n c??c n?????c ASEAN m???i ????y, Ph?? ???? ?????c Robert Thomas, ch??? huy H???m ?????i Th??i B??nh D????ng, ???? k??u g???i c??c qu???c gia ????ng Nam ?? th??nh l???p m???t l???c l?????ng h???i qu??n ??a ph????ng ????? ti???n h??nh c??c cu???c tu???n tra h???p t??c ??? Bi???n ????ng. ????? xu???t n??y c??ng t????ng t??? nh?? nh???ng ho???t ?????ng hi???n c?? trong khu v???c nh?? tu???n tra chung ch???ng c?????p bi???n ??? eo bi???n Malacca, v???i s??? tham gia c???a Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, v?? Th??i Lan.

Trung t??m ho???t ?????ng ??? Bi???n ????ng

Ngo??i l???c l?????ng tu???n tra chung, M??? c??n ????? xu???t th??nh l???p m???t Trung t??m Ho???t ?????ng Qu???c t??? Bi???n ????ng (South China Sea International Operations Centre) ??? Indonesia. ????? xu???t n??y ???????c Ch??? huy B??? T?? l???nh Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a M??? (PACOM) l?? Harry B. Harris ????a ra trong m???t phi??n ??i???u tr???n tr?????c Qu???c h???i M??? cu???i n??m 2014.

Theo ????? xu???t, Trung t??m Ho???t ?????ng Qu???c t??? Bi???n ????ng s??? ???????c th??nh l???p t???i Jakarta, th??? ???? c???a l??nh ?????o kh??ng ch??nh th???c c???a ASEAN, qu???c gia kh??ng c?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n tr???c ti???p tr??n Bi???n ????ng nh??ng ???? nhi???u l???n b??y t??? s???n s??ng tham gia h??a gi???i c??c tranh ch???p gi???a B???c Kinh v?? c??c n?????c ASEAN. Trung t??m n??y s??? l?? y???u t??? quan tr???ng trong nh???ng n??? l???c qu???c t??? l???n h??n nh???m ?????m b???o an ninh v?? t??? do h??ng h???i tr??n ???n ????? D????ng v?? Th??i B??nh D????ng.

????? xu???t n??u tr??n ph???n ??nh ??u ti??n c???a Washington ?????i v???i m???t chi???n l?????c h???p t??c ????? qu???n l?? c??c m???i ??e d???a ??ang n???i l??n ?????i v???i an ninh khu v???c. Tr???ng t??m c???a M??? trong h???p t??c an ninh v?? c??c c??ch ti???p c???n ??a ph????ng ???? ???????c ph???n ??nh trong m???t s??? v??n b???n ch??nh s??ch t??? n??m 2007, c??? th??? l?? C??c l???c l?????ng tr??n bi???n c???a Hoa K??? (American Sea Services), bao g???m H???i qu??n, Th???y qu??n l???c chi???n, v?? C???nh s??t bi???n.

M???t chi???n l?????c h???p t??c nh?? v???y c???n d???a tr??n hai nguy??n t???c: Th??? nh???t, t??nh c???n thi???t c???a s??? h???p t??c to??n di???n trong m???i qu???c gia c?? li??n quan ????? qu???n l?? m???t m???i ??e d???a c??? th???. C??c ho???t ?????ng x??y d???ng ??ang di???n ra ??? Bi???n ????ng l?? m???i ??e d???a ?????i v???i an ninh khu v???c. Th??? hai, s??? ch?? tr???ng ng??y m???t l???n v??? v??? vi???c chia s??? g??nh n???ng v?? ch??? ngh??a ??a ph????ng trong t??nh h??nh kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh v?? c??c h???n ch??? v??? ng??n s??ch qu???c ph??ng c???a Hoa K???.

B???o v??? s??? li??n quan c???a ASEAN

???? ?????n l??c ASEAN n??n c??n nh???c c??c ????? xu???t c???a M??? nh???m qu???n l?? c??c xung ?????t ti???m ???n ??? Bi???n ????ng, do ????, s??? li??n quan c???a th??? ch??? khu v???c n??y s??? tr??? th??nh v???n ?????. X??t cho c??ng, c??? ASEAN v?? Trung Qu???c ?????u g???n nh?? kh??ng b???n t??m nhi???u t???i Tuy??n b??? v??? ???ng x??? c???a c??c b??n ??? Bi???n ????ng (DOC) n??m 2002, v???n ch??? y???u ch??? mang t??nh bi???u t?????ng m?? ??t quan tr???ng v?? kh??ng c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c.

R?? r??ng l?? Trung Qu???c mu???n gi???i quy???t c??c tranh ch???p th??ng qua c??c k??nh thu???n song ph????ng, nh??  th??? n?????c n??y c?? l???i th??? l???n h??n. Nh??ng Trung Qu???c c??ng th??? hi???n r???ng n?? s???n s??ng duy tr?? m???i quan h??? ???n ?????nh v???i c??c n?????c ASEAN v?? tr??nh m???i quan h??? l???nh nh???t to??n di???n v???i c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng ????ng Nam ??, minh ch???ng l?? Trung Qu???c ???? quy???t ?????nh k?? DOC n??m 2002; nh???n m???nh t???m quan tr???ng c???a ???ngo???i giao ngo???i vi??? v???i c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng c??ng chung bi??n gi???i; v?? ch??? tr????ng ???khu??n kh??? h???p t??c 2+7,??? theo ???? k??u g???i s??? ?????ng thu???n ch??nh tr??? g???m hai ??i???m li??n quan ?????n Hi???p ?????c l??ng gi???ng t???t, h???u ngh??? v?? h???p t??c (Treaty of Good Neighbourliness, Friendship and Cooperation) gi???a ASEAN v?? Trung Qu???c, v?? b???y ????? ngh??? h???p t??c kh??c.

N??i ng???n g???n, Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i tham gia c??ng ASEAN trong c??c v???n ????? quan tr???ng c?? ???nh h?????ng ?????n m???i quan h??? t????ng h??? c???a hai b??n. To??n th??? kh???i ASEAN v??/ho???c c??c qu???c gia tr???ng y???u trong khu v???c nh?? Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, v?? Vi???t Nam, nh???ng n?????c c??ng chia s??? m???i lo ng???i v??? c??c m???i ??e d???a t??? do h??ng h???i v?? v??? s??? qu??n s??? h??a ng??y m???t t??ng c???a c??c tranh ch???p ??? Bi???n ????ng, c?? th??? ?????y m???nh c??c ho???t ?????ng tu???n tra chung. ??t nh???t, h??? c??ng c?? th??? c??ng t???n d???ng tri???n v???ng v??? c??c cu???c tu???n tra chung ????? thuy???t ph???c Trung Qu???c x??t l???i ch??nh s??ch hi???n t???i c???a m??nh v?? c??n nh???c c??c c?? ch??? gi???m leo thang c???n thi???t nh?? t???m ng???ng c??c ho???t ?????ng x??y d???ng tr??n Bi???n ????ng v?? ????m ph??n B??? quy t???c ???ng x??? tr??n Bi???n ????ng (CoC).

??i???u quan tr???ng l?? c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n ASEAN ph???i th??m d?? m???i l???a ch???n ??a ph????ng kh??? d??, th??? c?? th??? g??p ph???n qu???n l??, th???m ch?? l?? gi???i quy???t, c??c tranh ch???p tr??n Bi???n ????ng. V???i s??? h??? tr??? qu???c t??? c??ng khai v?? b???n v???ng, trong ???? c?? M???, ASEAN c?? th??? ?????t ???????c quy???t t??m t???p th??? l???n h??n ????? gi???i quy???t c??c xu h?????ng ????ng lo ng???i ??? Bi???n ????ng v?? t??i kh???ng ?????nh s??? li??n quan c???a n??.

Trong g???n b???y th???p ni??n qua, Washington ???? ????ng vai tr?? l?? m??? neo c???a s??? ???n ?????nh trong khu v???c. Nh??ng khi ch??ng ta ti???n t???i m???t tr???t t??? ??a c???c h??n trong khu v???c, M??? s??? kh??ng c??n gi??? ???????c v??? tr?? m?? theo ???? n?? c?? th??? ????n ph????ng quy???t ?????nh c??c s??? ki???n tr??n th???c ?????a. ???? ch??nh l?? l?? do t???i sao ph????ng ??n t???t nh???t tr?????c m???t l?? th??ng qua m???t c??ch ti???p c???n an ninh h???p t??c v?? ??a ph????ng, gi??p l??i k??o v?? trao quy???n cho ASEAN tr??? th??nh ?????ng l???c c???a s??? h???i nh???p v?? qu???n l?? tranh ch???p trong khu v???c. Bi???n ????ng ch??nh l?? n??i t???t nh???t ????? b???t ?????u.

Richard Javad Heydarian l?? Tr??? l?? Gi??o s?? ng??nh Khoa h???c ch??nh tr??? t???i ?????i h???c De La Salle University, Manila, Philippines, v?? l?? t??c gi??? c???a cu???n Asia???s New Battlefield: US, China and the Struggle for the Western Pacific.

Ti???n s?? Tr????ng Minh Huy V?? l?? Gi??m ?????c Trung t??m Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? (SCIS), ?????i h???c Khoa h???c X?? h???i v?? Nh??n v??n, Th??nh ph??? H??? Ch?? Minh.
 

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