H???i ngh??? Potsdam

Thứ sáu - 02/08/2019 04:39
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1945, H???i ngh??? th???i chi???n cu???i c??ng nh??m ???Tam C?????ng??? (Big Three) ??? Li??n X??, Hoa K??? v?? V????ng qu???c Anh ??? k???t th??c sau hai tu???n tranh lu???n c??ng th???ng v?? ????i khi gay g???t. H???i ngh??? ???? kh??ng gi???i quy???t ???????c h???u h???t c??c v???n ????? quan tr???ng l??c b???y gi??? v?? do ???? t???o ti???n ????? cho cu???c Chi???n tranh L???nh s??? b???t ?????u ngay sau khi Th??? chi???n II k???t th??c.
H???i ngh??? Potsdam

02/08/1945: H???i ngh??? Potsdam k???t th??c

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Ngu???n: Potsdam Conference concludesHistory.com

Bi??n d???ch: L?? H???ng Loan

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1945, H???i ngh??? th???i chi???n cu???i c??ng nh??m ???Tam C?????ng??? (Big Three) ??? Li??n X??, Hoa K??? v?? V????ng qu???c Anh ??? k???t th??c sau hai tu???n tranh lu???n c??ng th???ng v?? ????i khi gay g???t. H???i ngh??? ???? kh??ng gi???i quy???t ???????c h???u h???t c??c v???n ????? quan tr???ng l??c b???y gi??? v?? do ???? t???o ti???n ????? cho cu???c Chi???n tranh L???nh s??? b???t ?????u ngay sau khi Th??? chi???n II k???t th??c.

Cu???c g???p t???i Potsdam l?? h???i ngh??? th??? ba gi???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o nh??m Tam C?????ng. Li??n X?? ???????c ?????i di???n b???i Joseph Stalin, Anh b???i Winston Churchill v?? Hoa K??? b???i T???ng th???ng Harry S. Truman. ????y l?? l???n ?????u ti??n Truman tham d??? cu???c g???p c???a nh??m. T???ng th???ng Franklin D. Roosevelt, ng?????i qua ?????i v??o th??ng 04/1945, ???? tham d??? hai h???i ngh??? ?????u ti??n t???i Tehran v??o n??m 1943 v?? Yalta v??o th??ng 2/1945.

T???i h???i ngh??? Potsdam, v???n ????? c???p b??ch nh???t l?? s??? ph???n th???i h???u chi???n c???a n?????c ?????c. Li??n X?? mu???n m???t n?????c ?????c th???ng nh???t, nh??ng h??? c??ng kh??ng kh??ng r???ng ?????c ph???i ho??n to??n gi???i gi???i. Truman, c??ng v???i s??? l?????ng ng??y c??ng t??ng c??c quan ch???c Hoa K???, ???? c?? nh???ng nghi ng??? s??u s???c v??? ?? ?????nh c???a Li??n X?? t???i ch??u ??u. Qu??n ?????i Li??n X?? ????ng ?????o ???? chi???m ????ng ph???n l???n ????ng ??u. M???t n?????c ?????c m???nh m??? c?? th??? l?? tr??? ng???i duy nh???t tr??n con ???????ng th???ng tr??? c???a Li??n X?? tr??n to??n ch??u ??u. Cu???i c??ng, nh??m ???? ?????ng ?? chia n?????c ?????c th??nh ba khu v???c chi???m ????ng (m???t khu v???c cho m???i qu???c gia) v?? tr?? ho??n c??c cu???c th???o lu???n v??? vi???c th???ng nh???t n?????c ?????c cho ?????n m???t th???i ??i???m sau n??y.

M???t v???n ????? ????ng ch?? ?? kh??c t???i Potsdam l???i g???n nh?? kh??ng ???????c n??i ra. Ngay khi ?????n h???i ngh???, Truman ???????c th??ng b??o r???ng Hoa K??? ???? th??? nghi???m th??nh c??ng qu??? bom nguy??n t??? ?????u ti??n. V???i hy v???ng s??? d???ng v?? kh?? n??y l??m ????n b???y tr?????c Li??n X?? th???i h???u chi???n, Truman ???? v??? ????? c???p m???t c??ch t??nh c??? v???i Stalin r???ng Hoa K??? hi???n ??ang s??? h???u m???t lo???i v?? kh?? c?? s???c t??n ph?? kh???ng khi???p. V??? t???ng th???ng ???? ph???i th???t v???ng khi nh?? l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? ch??? tr??? l???i r???ng ??ng hy v???ng Hoa K??? s??? s??? d???ng n?? ????? ????a cu???c chi???n v???i Nh???t k???t th??c nhanh ch??ng.

H???i ngh??? Potsdam k???t th??c trong kh??ng kh?? ???m ?????m. R???i h???i ngh???, Truman th???m ch?? c??n b??? thuy???t ph???c nhi???u h??n r???ng ??ng ph???i ??p d???ng m???t ch??nh s??ch c???ng r???n ?????i v???i Li??n X??. Stalin th?? c??ng tin r???ng Hoa K??? v?? Anh ??ang ??m m??u ch???ng l???i Li??n X??. V??? ph???n Churchill, ??ng kh??ng c?? m???t trong l??? b??? m???c. ?????ng c???a ??ng ???? thua trong cu???c b???u c??? ??? Anh, v?? ??ng ???? b??? thay th??? gi???a h???i ngh??? b???i t??n th??? t?????ng Clement Attlee. Potsdam l?? h???i ngh??? h???u chi???n cu???i c??ng c???a nh??m Tam C?????ng.
 

Th?????ng ?????nh Trump-Putin: L???ch s??? c?? bao gi??? l???p l???i?

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T??c gi???: Ng?? Di L??n & S?? Nguy??n

C??ch ????y h??n 40 n??m, c???p b??i tr??ng kh??t ti???ng Nixon-Kissinger ???? t???o ra c??n ?????a ch???n ch??nh tr??? v???i chuy???n th??m b???t ng??? ?????n Trung Qu???c, m??? ???????ng cho qu?? tr??nh b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h??? ngo???i giao M???-Trung sau nhi???u th???p k??? ?????i ?????u.

Ch??nh ???l?? b??i Trung Qu???c??? l?? m???t trong nh???ng ???si??u v?? kh????? c???a M???, gi??p n?????c n??y ki???m ch??? th??nh c??ng Li??n X?? trong su???t n???a sau c???a Chi???n tranh L???nh.

M??? ???? t???ng v???n d???ng th??nh c??ng con b??i Trung Qu???c ????? bu???c Li??n X?? ph???i ch???p nh???n ho?? ho??n v??o nh???ng n??m 70. B???ng vi???c khai th??c m??u thu???n X?? ??? Trung ??? m???c t???i ??a, M??? ???? t???o ?????ng l???c ????? c??? hai n?????c n??y theo ??u???i quan h??? g???n g??i h??n v???i M???, t??? ???? cho ph??p M??? c?? nhi???u kho???ng kh??ng ??i???u ch???nh ch??nh s??ch linh ho???t h??n.

Trong m???i quan h??? tay ba M??? ??? Trung ??? Nga, Trung Qu???c v?? Nga th?????ng c?? xu h?????ng x??ch l???i g???n nhau ????? c??n b???ng l???i v???i M???, trong khi M??? lu??n t??m c??ch ????? ph??n t??ch h??? th??ng qua l??i k??o hay trung l???p h??a m???t n?????c.

Ng??y nay, v???t ???? ?????i, sao ???? d???i, Trung Qu???c v????n l??n tr??? th??nh ?????i th??? c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c s??? m???t c???a M???. C?? v??? nh?? M??? ??ang mu???n ch??i ???l?? b??i Nga??? ????? ki???m ch??? Trung Qu???c v?? gi??nh l???i th??? th?????ng phong trong quan h??? n?????c l???n.

H??m nay, ng??y 16/7, T???ng th???ng Trump c?? cu???c g???p v???i T???ng th???ng Putin t???i Helsinki, Ph???n Lan, b???t ch???p nh???ng c??ng th???ng hi???n nay trong quan h??? hai n?????c. ??i???u n??y kh??ng kh???i khi???n nhi???u ng?????i nh??? ?????n chuy???n th??m Trung Qu???c l???ch s??? c???a Nixon n??m 1972. ?????i v??n h??o Mark Twain ???? t???ng n??i r???ng ???l???ch s??? kh??ng bao gi??? l???p l???i nh??ng n?? th?????ng gieo v???n???

30 cu???c g???p trong l???ch s???

N??i ?????n c??c c???p ???k??? ph??ng ?????ch th?????? trong n???n ch??nh tr??? hi???n ?????i, c?? l??? c???p M??? ??? Nga l?? ti??u bi???u nh???t.

Trong Th??? Chi???n II, do ?????i m???t v???i m???i hi???m ho??? s???ng c??n t??? ?????c Qu???c X??, hai b??n d?? kh??ng mu???n nh??ng bu???c ph???i tham gia v??o m???t cu???c ???h??n nh??n v??? l???i??? ????? ????nh b???i th??? l???c b?? quy???n n??y. S???i d??y li??n k???t l???i ??ch v???n r???t mong manh n??y ???? ?????t ngay gi??y ph??t qu??n ?????ng minh gi??nh chi???n th???ng chung cu???c v??o m??a h?? n??m 1945.

Nh???ng g?? di???n ra sau ???? th?? ai c??ng bi???t: m???t lo???t c??c m??u thu???n v??? l???i ??ch ??? nh???ng khu v???c chi???n l?????c tr???ng y???u tr???i d??i t??? T??y ??u ?????n ????ng ??, nh???ng xung ?????t kh??ng th??? dung ho?? v??? ?? th???c h???, s??? ra ?????i c???a v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, cu???c c???nh tranh ????? v????n l??n v??? tr?? s??? 1 th??? gi???i ??? g???n nh?? khi???n Chi???n tranh L???nh tr??? th??nh k???t c???c kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i d??nh cho hai c???u ?????ng minh n??y.

Trong su???t nh???ng th???p k??? ?????i ?????u, c??c cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh gi???a l??nh ?????o hai n?????c v???n di???n ra, ngay c??? trong nh???ng th???i ??i???m c???nh tranh c??ng th???ng nh???t.

???? l?? nh???ng l??c h??? g???p nhau ????? b??n v??? nh???ng v???n ????? th??? gi???i, quy???t ?????nh s??? ph???n c???a m???t qu???c gia hay khu v???c, ????? ???th??o ng??i??? c??ng th???ng h???t nh??n hay th???m ch?? c??ng c?? nh???ng th???i ??i???m g???p nhau v???i ni???m hy v???ng s??? h??? nhi???t c??ng th???ng Chi???n Tranh L???nh.

Tr??n th???c t???, th?????ng ?????nh Trump ??? Putin s??? l?? cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh th??? 30 gi???a nguy??n th??? hai n?????c n??y k??? t??? khi Eisenhower v?? Khrushchev l???n ?????u g???p nhau t???i Geneva n??m 1955.

Trong s??? 30 cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh th?? c?? ?????n 14 cu???c g???p d???n ?????n vi???c k?? k???t nh???ng th???a thu???n l???n nh?? Hi???p ?????c ch???ng t??n l???a ?????n ?????o (ABM) gi???a Nixon v?? Brezhnev n??m 1972, Hi???p ?????c lo???i b??? t??n l???a h???t nh??n t???m ng???n v?? t???m trung (INF) gi???a Reagan v?? Gorbachev n??m 1987 hay g???n ????y nh???t l?? Hi???p ?????c c???t gi???m v?? kh?? t???n c??ng chi???n l?????c m???i (New START) gi???a Obama v?? Medvedev n??m 2010.

L???ch s??? th?????ng ?????nh Nga-M??? v???n c??ng kh??ng ch??? to??n m??u h???ng. B??n c???nh th??nh c??ng th?? c??ng c?? kh??ng ??t c??c cu???c g???p k???t th??c trong th???t b???i th???m h???i.

S??? ki???n m??y bay trinh th??m U-2 c???a M??? b??? b???n r??i tr??n l??nh th??? c???a Li??n X?? c??ng s??? ph??? nh???n ho??n to??n t??? ph??a M??? ???? khi???n Khrushchev t???c gi???n b??? v??? s???m trong cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh n??m 1960 t???i Paris.

Cu???c th?????ng ?????nh Kennedy ??? Khrushchev n??m 1961 t???i Vienna c??ng b??? coi l?? m???t th???t b???i l???n khi l??nh ?????o hai b??n kh??ng th??? ?????t ???????c ?????ng thu???n trong vi???c ????m ph??n hi???p ?????nh c???m th??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, do nh???ng m??u thu???n s??u s???c v??? t??nh tr???ng c???a th??nh ph??? Berlin ??? v???n n???m s??u trong l??ng ????ng ?????c.

Nh???ng th???t b???i l???n n??y l?? l???i c???nh b??o ?????i v???i nh???ng ai ??ang ?????t qu?? nhi???u ni???m k??? v???ng v??o m???t s??? ?????t ph?? sau cu???c g???p s???p t???i gi???a hai nguy??n th??? M??? ??? Nga.

???????ng ?????n Helsinki 16/7

Con ???????ng ?????n cu???c g???p Trump ??? Putin t???i Helsinki, Ph???n Lan ng??y 16/7 ???? tr???i qua nhi???u th??ng tr???m.

C???n l??u ?? r???ng m???m m???ng c???a cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh M??? ??? Nga ???? xu???t hi???n ngay t??? chi???n d???ch tranh c??? T???ng th???ng tr?????c th??ng 11/2016. Khi ???? ??ng Trump ???? th??? hi???n thi???n c???m ?????c bi???t v???i ??ng Putin, v?? ng??? ?? khi th???ng c??? s??? ????a M??? v?? Nga l???i g???n nhau.

H??nh ?????ng c?? ph???n c???m t??nh n??y c???a ??ng Trump sau ???? ph???n n??o ???? l??m h???i ??ng, b??? d?? lu???n coi l?? con r???i c???a ??ng Putin v?? kh???i ngu???n v??? ??i???u tra Nga can thi???p v??o b???u c???.

Nh???ng s???c ??p n???i b??? ???? ng??n c???n ch??nh quy???n ??ng Trump kh??ng th??? c???i thi???n quan h??? v???i Nga. Ng?????c l???i, h??? ???? tuy??n b??? Nga c??ng Trung Qu???c l?? ????????i th??? c???nh tranh x??t l???i??? t???i chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia v??o th??ng 12/2017.

Nh???ng di???n bi???n sau ???? c??ng khi???n cho quan h??? hai n?????c ??i xu???ng: M??? ????ng c???a L??nh s??? qu??n v?? tr???c xu???t 60 nh?? ngo???i giao Nga v??o th??ng 3/2018 sau khi nghi ng??? v??? ?????u ?????c gi??n ??i???p t???i Anh, ti???p theo ???? l?? cu???c kh??ng k??ch c???a M??? ??? Anh ??? Ph??p v??o Syria v???i c??o bu???c ch??nh ph??? Assad do Nga h???u thu???n ???? s??? d???ng v?? kh?? h??a h???c.

M???c d?? s???c ??p n???i b??? v?? nh???ng di???n bi???n kh??ng thu???n ??? b??n ngo??i ???? kh??ng cho ph??p ??ng Trump ti???n g???n h??n t???i Nga, ch??nh quy???n ??ng Trump d?????ng nh?? v???n ch??a t??? b??? ?? ?????nh n??y. Trong su???t th???i gian qua, hai b??n v???n gi??? k??nh li??n l???c ????? trao ?????i th?????ng xuy??n.

B???n th??n ??ng Trump v?? ??ng Putin ???? g???p nhau hai l???n: l???n ?????u ti??n t???i Th?????ng ?????nh G20 ??? ?????c (5/2017) v?? l???n th??? hai ??? Tu???n l??? C???p cao APEC t???i Vi???t Nam (11/2017). Tuy nhi??n, tr?????c nh???ng con m???t d?? x??t v?? l???ch c??ng t??c d??y ?????c, hai nh?? l??nh ?????o kh??ng c?? nhi???u th???i gian ????? trao ?????i ri??ng.

Ch??? m???i ????y, khi m?? ch??nh quy???n M??? ph???n n??o ???? c?? s??? ???n ?????nh h??n ??? trong n?????c, v?? sau cu???c g???p v???i ??ng Kim Jong-un th?? uy t??n v??? ?????i ngo???i t??ng l??n, th?? ??ng Trump b???t ?????u ????nh ti???ng mong mu???n g???p Nga.

Khi Trump g???p Putin

C??u h???i ?????t ra l?? ?????ng c?? n??o khi???n hai nh?? l??nh ?????o M??? ??? Nga l???i quy???t ?????nh g???p nhau?

V???i Nga, ??u ti??n cao nh???t c???a h??? l?? tho??t kh???i ho??n c???nh b??? bao v??y kinh t??? ????? c?? c?? h???i ph??t tri???n. Kinh t??? Nga v??? ng???n h???n th?? c?? c???i thi???n nh??ng v??? d??i h???n th?? ???? t???t h???u r???t nhi???u k??? t??? khi b??? c???m v???n sau v??? s??p nh???p Crimea n??m 2014. T???ng th???ng Putin hi???u r???ng kh??ng c?? s??? ???ng h??? c???a M??? v?? c?? nh??n ??ng Trump th?? s??? kh??ng l??m ???????c vi???c n??y.

Xa h??n n???a, Nga c??ng c?? nhu c???u ???????c tr??? l???i G8, c???i thi???n h??nh ???nh c???a m??nh tr??n tr?????ng qu???c t???, ti???p n???i ???? th??nh c??ng c???a World Cup v???a qua.

V??? ph??a M???, c??c ?????ng c?? c???a h??? ph???i k??? ?????n y???u t??? Trung ????ng, Ch??u ??u v?? Trung Qu???c.

V???i Trung ????ng, M??? hi???n c?? nhu c???u r??t lui chi???n l?????c t????ng ?????i kh???i khu v???c n??y, v???n ?????ng s??? ???ng h??? c???a Nga v???i v???n ????? Israel v?? Iran. Ngay c??? khi M??? ph???i ch???p nh???n th???c t??? v??? th??nh c??ng c???a b??? ba Nga-Iran-Assad tr??n chi???n tr?????ng, h??? c??ng v???n mu???n duy tr?? ch??? ?????ng c???a m??nh ??? khu v???c n??y th??ng qua vi???c ?????m b???o an ninh cho Israel v?? c???ng c??? kh??? n??ng c???a c??c l???c l?????ng ng?????i Kurd ??? ph??a B???c Syria.

V???i Ch??u ??u, ??ng Trump ??ang g??y s???c ??p m???nh v???i NATO v??? chia s??? g??nh n???ng qu??n s??? v?? v???i EU v??? kinh t??? th????ng m???i. M???t cu???c g???p v???i ??ng Putin ???tr??n l??ng??? c??c n?????c Ch??u ??u s??? th??? hi???n m???t n?????c M??? d??m l??m, kh??ng ki??ng n???, s???n s??ng ??p bu???c ?????ng minh theo ?? m??nh.

V?? ?????ng c?? th??? ba l?? v???i Trung Qu???c ??? c?????ng qu???c ??ang v????n l??n th??ch th???c v??? tr?? si??u c?????ng s??? 1 c???a M???.

S??? tr??ng l???p v??? th???i ??i???m gi???a nh???ng n??? l???c c???a ch??nh quy???n Trump nh???m xoa d???u c??ng th???ng trong quan h??? Nga ??? M??? c??ng m???i ??e d???a chi???n tranh th????ng m???i M??? ??? Trung ng??y m???t gia t??ng trong th???i gian g???n ????y bu???c ng?????i ta ph???i ngh?? r???ng Trump v?? c??c c??? v???n c???a m??nh ??ang c??? g???ng v???n d???ng ???l?? b??i Nga??? ????? ?????y Trung Qu???c v??o th??? b??? ?????ng trong quan h??? n?????c l???n.

Bao nhi??u gi???i h???n???

C?? nh???ng l?? do ????? kh??ng n??n qu?? k??? v???ng cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh M??? ??? Nga l???n n??y s??? ?????t k???t qu??? l???n ngay l???p t???c. V??? c?? b???n, cu???c g???p s??? mang t??nh ???m??? c???a??? ????? hai b??n ti???p t???c trao ?????i, ????m ph??n c???i thi???n quan h???. T????ng t??? nh?? c??u chuy???n h??a d???u b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n v???i th?????ng ?????nh Trump ??? Kim ng??y 12/6 v???a qua.

V??? n???i b??? M???, m???c d?? ??ng Trump ???d??m ch??i???, s???c ??p v?? r??o c???n ????? ?????n v???i Nga v???n r???t l???n.

V??? ?????i ngo???i, t??? v???n ????? Crimea cho ?????n kh???ng ho???ng Syria, Nga b??? xem nh?? k??? chuy??n ph?? r???i, hay th???m ch?? c?? tham v???ng b?? quy???n ??? khu v???c, ??i ng?????c l???i v???i ???gi?? tr??? M??????.

N???i b??? M??? v???n ???? quen v???i vi???c coi Nga l?? ???c??i gai trong m???t???, hay ???con ng??o ???p??? ????? v???n ?????ng s??? ???ng h??? trong n?????c v?? c??? ??o??n k???t v???i ?????ng minh NATO. Th???m ch?? ng?????i ta c??n n??i ?????n s??? xu???t hi???n c???a ???ch??? ngh??a b??i Nga??? khi nh???ng ph????ng th???c tuy??n truy???n su???t bao nhi??u th???p k???, qua c??? b??o ch?? v?? Hollywood ???? x??y d???ng m???t h??nh ???nh Nga x???u x?? trong con m???t ng?????i M???.

V???n ????? ???? c??ng tr??? n??n nghi??m tr???ng h??n khi ph??a M??? c??o bu???c Nga can thi???p v??o cu???c b???u c??? n??m 2016 ????? gi??p Trump ????nh b???i Hillary. Do ????, m???i n??? l???c ????? h??n g???n quan h??? M??? ??? Nga ch???c ch???n s??? v???p ph???i s??? ch???ng ?????i h???t s???c m???nh m??? t??? Qu???c h???i M???, ?????c bi???t t??? ?????ng D??n ch???.

Trong tr?????ng h???p ????, d?? ch??nh quy???n Trump c?? quy???t t??m ch??nh tr??? r???t l???n ??i n???a th?? v???i s??? ph???n ?????i t??? Qu???c h???i, vi???c ho??n to??n ????????o chi???u??? quan h??? hai n?????c ngay l???p t???c l?? g???n nh?? kh??ng t?????ng.

Do ????, ????? c???i thi???n th???c s??? ???????c quan h??? v???i Nga th?? ch??nh quy???n t???ng th???ng Trump ph???i t??m ki???m ???????c l?? do m?? n???i b??? ?????ng ?? l?? ch??nh ????ng.

V??o th???p k??? 70, t???ng th???ng Nixon ???? l??m ???????c ??i???u ???? v?? c?? l?? do chi???n tranh Vi???t Nam, ng?????i d??n v?? ch??nh gi???i r???t mong mu???n ch??nh ph??? r??t qu??n kh???i Vi???t Nam. V?? th???i ??i???m ???? m???i s??? c??ng thu???n l???i cho Nixon khi M??? v?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng c?? nhi???u ??i???m ?????i ?????u tr???c ti???p, v?? m??u thu???n X?? ??? Trung l??n ?????n ?????nh ??i???m. L?? b??i ???ly gi??n??? do ???? c?? th??? ???????c s??? d???ng hi???u qu???.

C??n b??y gi??? th?? l???i kh??c.

???l?? b???y nhi??u tri???n v???ng

L?? ng?????i lu??n t??? tin cho r???ng m??nh c?? th??? ???t??i kh???i ?????ng??? quan h??? v???i Nga v???n ???? ????ng b??ng t??? l??u nay, Donald Trump ch???c ch???n s??? n??? l???c h???t s???c ????? ch???ng t??? r???ng m??nh l?? m???t nh?? ????m ph??n ?????i t??i. S??? quy???t t??m c???a Trump s??? l?? m???t trong nh???ng y???u t??? ?????c bi???t quan tr???ng ????? l??m n??n m???t cu???c th?????ng ?????nh th??nh c??ng.

M???t trong nh???ng ?????i???m l??nh??? cho ph??a Nga l?? c??ch m?? Trump ??ang h??nh x??? v???i c??c ?????ng minh NATO c???a m??nh.

M???t v??? t???ng th???ng M??? kh??c nh?? Obama hay Clinton n???u th??m NATO tr?????c khi th??m Nga th?? th?????ng s??? nh???n m???nh cam k???t an ninh c???a M???, th???m ch?? s??? c??? g???ng th???i ph???ng m???i ??e d???a t??? Nga ????? t??ng c?????ng t??nh ??o??n k???t trong kh???i.

L?? ng?????i lu??n gi????ng cao ng???n c??? ???America First??? (n?????c M??? tr?????c ti??n), ?????i v???i Trump, ??i???u quan tr???ng nh???t kh??ng ph???i l?? ?????m b???o an ninh c???a c??c ?????ng minh m?? l?? y??u c???u nh???ng n?????c n??y ph???i chia s??? g??nh n???ng qu???c ph??ng nhi???u h??n.

Nh???ng t??n ????? c???a ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c trong quan h??? qu???c t??? ???? l?? gi???i m???t trong nh???ng nguy??n nh??n c???a vi???c Nga can thi???p v??o Ukraine n??m 2014 ???? l?? v?? NATO ???? m??? r???ng ?????n s??t bi??n gi???i c???a h???.

V??? l??u d??i vi???c NATO n??ng cao chi ti??u qu???c ph??ng c?? th??? ?????t ra th??ch th???c an ninh l???n h??n ?????i v???i Nga, nh??ng c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? ??i???n Kremlin c??ng hi???u r???ng s??? kh??ng d??? ????? Trump ??p ???????c t???t c??? c??c ?????ng minh NATO ho??n th??nh ch??? ti??u d??nh 2% GDP cho qu???c ph??ng ??? ??i???u m?? t???t c??? c??c t???ng th???ng M??? tr?????c ????y ?????u th???t b???i.

H??n n???a, b???n th??n vi???c Trump gi??? v???ng l???p tr?????ng c???ng r???n v???i c??c ?????ng minh trong ng???n h???n th???m ch?? s??? l?? t??n hi???u t???t ?????i v???i Nga b???i nhi???u kh??? n??ng n?? s??? g??y r???n n???t trong kh???i NATO thay v?? khi???n t???t c??? ??o??n k???t h??n.

V???i kh???i ?????u thu???n l???i nh?? v???y, s??? c?? d?? ?????a ????? hai b??n c??ng b??n b???c v?? gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? n??ng, ?????c bi???t l?? ??? khu v???c ????ng ??u v?? Trung ????ng.

Vi???c ?????t ???????c m???t th???a thu???n ???ng???m??? v??? vai tr?? c???a Ukraine ??? Ch??u ??u s??? gi??p cho quan h??? Nga ??? M??? tan b??ng ??t nhi???u. Tuy nhi??n ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? ??i???u d??? d??ng b???i m???t th???a thu???n v??? Ukraine ????? l??m Nga h??i l??ng g???n nh?? ch???c ch???n s??? y??u c???u ph??a M??? ph???i d??? b??? b???t c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t kinh t??? v?? th???m ch?? c??ng nh???n vi???c Nga s??p nh???p b??n ?????o Crimea.

S??? song tr??ng l???i ??ch c???a ????i b??n c?? ph???n l???n h??n ??? Syria khi ch??nh quy???n Trump ???? th??? hi???n r???t r?? mong mu???n r??t qu??n kh???i Syria trong t????ng lai, ?????ng th???i ch???p nh???n t??? b??? y??u c???u Assad ph???i ???ra ??i???.

Kh??ng ph???i t??? nhi??n m?? ph??a Nga ph???n ???ng t????ng ?????i m???m m???ng sau khi M??? v?? c??c ?????ng minh t???n c??ng Syria v??o th??ng 4 v???a qua. M???t th???a thu???n cho ph??p c??? hai r??t qu??n kh???i Syria v?? gi??? nguy??n ch??? ????? hi???n nay do Assad ?????ng ?????u c?? th??? l??m tho??? m??n c??? ????i b??n.

?????ng Trump ?????n v???i n?????c Nga???

M???t ??i???m r???t ????ng l??u ?? r???ng: ??ng Trump ??ang ??? trong th???i ??i???m r???t nh???y c???m trong nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng c???a m??nh.

Cu???c b???u c??? gi???a k??? s??? di???n ra v??o th??ng 11/2018, n???u phe C???ng H??a ?????t k???t qu??? t???t th?? s??? t???o ti???n ????? cho nhi???m k??? 2 c???a ??ng Trump. Ng?????c l???i, n???u ?????ng C???ng H??a ????? m???t h??? vi???n th?? ch??nh quy???n Trump s??? ph???n n??o b??? ???tr??i tay??? trong 2 n??m nhi???m k??? c??n l???i. Do ????, quy???t ?????nh g???p Nga trong th???i ??i???m n??y ch???ng kh??c g?? ??ng Trump t???o c??? cho phe ch???ng ?????i ??? trong n?????c.

T??? khi nh???m ch???c ?????n nay, d?????ng nh?? m???i b?????c ??i ch??nh s??ch c???a ch??nh quy???n Trump ?????u c?? m???c ????ch ?????i n???i, nh??ng l???n n??y, c?? l??? ??ng Trump s???n s??ng l??m kh??c.

Ng?????i l???c quan th?? cho r???ng ??ng Trump th???c s??? b???t ?????u hi???u v??? l???i ??ch chi???n l?????c h??n ??u ti??n ng???n h???n. C??n k??? nghi ng??? th?? s??? n??i th???c ch???t v??? T???ng th???ng doanh nh??n n??y ch??? ????n thu???n t??m c??ch ti???p t???c ???ghi danh??? sau th??nh c??ng t????ng ?????i c???a cu???c g???p tr?????c ???? v???i Tri???u Ti??n.

Th???c t???, v??? T???ng th???ng l???n th??? 45 c???a Hoa K??? ???? cho ch??ng ta th???y h???t l???n n??y ?????n l???n kh??c l??:

Tr?????c ???? ch???ng ai d??? ??o??n ???????c r???ng ??ng s??? ???c???ng v???i ?????ng minh??? nh?? Canada, Mexico, Nh???t B???n, H??n Qu???c c??ng nh?? NATO v??? kinh t??? th????ng m???i v?? chia s??? g??nh n???ng qu??n s???. C??ng ch???ng ai d??? ??o??n ???????c l?? ??ng s??? ???m???m??? v???i ?????i th??? nh?? tr?????ng h???p v???i Tri???u Ti??n v?? Nga.

M???t ??i???u th?? v??? tr??? tr??u l??: N???u ??em ra so s??nh, c?? l??? c??c cu???c g???p gi???a M??? v?? c??c ?????i th??? truy???n th???ng nh?? Tri???u Ti??n, Nga c?? t??? l??? th??nh c??ng cao h??n so v???i cu???c g???p c??c ?????ng minh v???i M??? nh?? t???i G7, NATO v.v???

Chuy???n c??ng du c???a ??ng Trump l???n n??y t???i Ch??u ??u l?? nh???m tham d??? th?????ng ?????nh NATO v?? th??m Anh qu???c, r???i m???i ?????n Ph???n Lan g???p ??ng Putin. Nh??ng d?????ng nh?? hai s??? ki???n tr?????c ???? ???? v?? ??ang b??? ph??? b??ng b???i Helsinki 16/7.

Cu???c g???p th?????ng ?????nh gi???a ??ng Trump v?? ??ng Putin l???n n??y v?? th??? kh??ng ch??? l?? c??u chuy???n c???a hai n?????c M??? ??? Nga. H??? g???p nhau c?? ?????t k???t qu??? g?? hay kh??ng th?? h??? h???i c??n ph??n gi???i. Nh??ng m???t ??i???u ch???c ch???n l?? c??? th??? gi???i ??ang nh??n v??? ph??a h???.

Nh???ng con m???t lo ng???i ???? kh??ng ch??? ?????n t??? ph????ng T??y l?? c??c n?????c Ch??u ??u ?????ng minh c???a M???, m?? c??n ?????n t??? Trung ????ng v?? ??? xa Helsinki h??n l?? ??? Ch??u ??, n??i c?? m???t c?????ng qu???c ??ang v????n l??n th??ch th???c v??? tr?? s??? m???t v???n ???????c M??? ng??? tr??? t??? sau Chi???n tranh Th??? gi???i th??? Hai ?????n nay.

N??m 1972, ???Nixon goes to China??? ??? l?? c??u n??i h??m ?? r???ng ch??? c?? m???t l??nh ?????o ???b???t th?????ng??? v?? d??m l??m nh?? Nixon c?? th??? ?????n Trung Qu???c ????? thay ?????i to??n b??? b??n c??? ?????i chi???n l?????c khi ????. 46 n??m sau ????, d?????ng nh?? ??ng Trump c?? mong mu???n ????????n v???i n?????c Nga???, tr??? th??nh m???t ng?????i thay ?????i th??? gi???i nh?? v???y.

Trong th???i k??? Chi???n tranh L???nh, M??? v?? Li??n X?? g???p nhau ????? quy???t ?????nh s??? thay ?????i c???a th??? gi???i. L???n n??y, t???i Helsinki, c???c di???n th??? gi???i v???i nh???ng bi???n chuy???n m???i ch??nh l?? l???c ?????y khi???n hai c?????ng qu???c n??y t??m ?????n nhau. Li???u r???ng l???ch s??? s??? l???p l???i, hay ch?? ??t s??? gieo v???n?

Ngu???n: Soha

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