Chuy??n gia M???: Vi???t Nam l?? ?????i th??? l?? t?????ng ????? Trung Qu???c ???luy???n binh???

Trung Qu???c ng??y c??ng l??? r?? ?? ????? mu???n d??ng s???c m???nh ????? ????nh chi???m ????i Loan, v?? n???u c???n, ????nh b???t M??? v?? c??c ?????ng minh ?????n c???u vi???n. B??n c???nh ????, Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ??ang r??o ri???t r??n luy???n ????? tr??? th??nh m???t ?????o qu??n c?? ????????ng c???p th??? gi???i???, t???c l?? ngang h??ng v???i Qu??n ?????i Hoa K???. Trong b???i c???nh ????, Trung Qu???c r???t c???n kinh nghi???m th???c chi???n. Vi???t Nam, n?????c sau c??ng ????nh b???i Trung Qu???c v??o n??m 1979, ???? tr??? th??nh n?????c m?? B???c Kinh nh??m ng?? trong t?? c??ch l?? ?????i th??? th???c th??? tr??n chi???n tr?????ng.

Trong m???t b??i ph??n t??ch ????ng tr??n chuy??n san Nh???t B???n The Diplomat ng??y 14/05/2019, ??ng Derek Grossman, chuy??n gia ph??n t??ch qu???c ph??ng k??? c???u t???i trung t??m M??? Rand Corporation, nguy??n l?? c??? v???n cho tr??? l?? b??? tr?????ng Qu???c Ph??ng M??? ?????c tr??ch Ch??u ?? - Th??i B??nh D????ng, ???? gi??? ?????nh r???ng: ????????n m???t l??c n??o ????, Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c s??? c???n ph???i ki???m tra (tr??n chi???n tr?????ng) n??ng l???c m???i c???a h??? - v?? Vi???t Nam ho??n to??n c?? th??? b??? coi l?? ?????i th??? ???????c ??a th??ch???.

B??i vi???t mang t???a ????? r???t khi??u kh??ch ???Vi???t Nam l?? n?????c ???????c Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ??a th??ch trong m???t tr???n ????nh mang t??nh ch???t kh???i ?????ng ??? Vietnam is the Chinese military???s preferred warm-up fight???, chuy??n gia M??? ???? n??u b???t ba l?? do khi???n cho Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c s???n s??ng ????nh Vi???t Nam ????? g???i l?? ???luy???n binh???, chu???n b??? cho cu???c chi???n ch???ng M???.

Theo ??ng Grossman - trong m???t b??i ??i???u tr???n ng??y 07/02/2019 tr?????c ???y Ban Ki???m Tra Kinh T??? v?? An Ninh M???-Trung c???a Qu???c H???i Hoa K???, Dennis Blasko, m???t nh?? ph??n t??ch k??? c???u v??? Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ???? nh???n ?????nh r???ng l???c l?????ng n??y hi???n ??ang ph???i ch???u s???c ??p l???n l?? ph???i t??ng c?????ng n??ng l???c chi???n ?????u th??ng qua c??c k???ch b???n hu???n luy???n chi???n ?????u th???c t???.

Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c???n c?? kinh nghi???m th???c chi???n

Khi ch??? th??? cho Qu??n ?????i l?? ph???i r??n luy???n ????? tr??? th??nh m???t ?????o qu??n c?? ????????ng c???p th??? gi???i??? v??o n??m 2050, ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c T???p C???n B??nh c?? l??? ???? ngh?? ?????n s??? ki???n l?? cu???c chi???n l???n sau c??ng m?? Trung Qu???c ???? tham gia l?? cu???c chi???n tranh n??m 1979 ??? v??ng bi??n gi???i ph??a b???c Vi???t Nam, m?? Trung Qu???c ???? thua m???t c??ch ????ng x???u h???.

Tuy nhi??n, cu???c chi???n n??m 1979 l???i li??n quan ch??? y???u ?????n l???c l?????ng b??? binh, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t cu???c chi???n m?? B???c Kinh d??? tr?? ph???i ?????i m???t hi???n nay, d?? l?? ????? ch???ng l???i ????i Loan hay m???t ?????i th??? khu v???c kh??c ??? Bi???n ????ng hay Bi???n Hoa ????ng, v???i t???t c??? h???u nh?? ch??? li??n quan t???i kh??ng qu??n v?? h???i qu??n. Do ????, kinh nghi???m chi???n tranh l???n cu???i c??ng c???a B???c Kinh g???n nh?? kh??ng th??? ??p d???ng ???????c. ????y l?? m???t l??? h???ng nghi??m tr???ng v?? ????ng b??o ?????ng ?????i v???i Qu??n ?????i Nh??n D??n Trung Qu???c.

Trong t??nh h??nh ????, Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ???? ph???i n??? l???c t???p luy???n, nh??ng ?????n m???t l??c n??o ????, h??? s??? c???n ph???i ki???m tra hi???u qu??? c???a c??c n??ng l???c m???i ti???p thu, v?? r???t c?? th??? h??? s??? mu???n chi???n ?????u v???i Vi???t Nam m???t l???n n???a, nh?? l?? m???t b??i t???p kh???i ?????ng cho c??c tr???n chi???n l???n h??n, nh??ng l???n n??y l?? ??? Bi???n ????ng. Theo ??ng Grossman, c?? ??t nh???t ba l?? do khi???n cho Vi???t Nam bi???n th??nh ??i???m nh???m c???a ?? ????? n??i tr??n c???a Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c.

L?? do th??? nh???t : Chi???n tr?????ng Vi???t Nam v?? Bi???n ????ng thu???n l???i cho kh??ng v?? h???i qu??n

L?? do ?????u ti??n l?? Trung Qu???c c???n ph???i chu???n b??? cho m???t cu???c chi???n tranh trong l??nh v???c kh??ng qu??n v?? h???i qu??n.

N??i c??ch kh??c, chi???n ?????u v???i ???n ????? ??? v??ng bi??n gi???i tr??n b???, tr??n v??ng ?????i n??i cao c???a d??y Himalaya, kh??ng c?? l???i ch??t n??o cho Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c. M???t cu???c chi???n kh??c tr??n B??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n c?? th??? mang ?????n m???t s??? c?? h???i, nh??ng v???n t????ng ?????i h???n ch??? v?? c?? bi???t.

Ng?????c l???i, c??c y??u s??ch ch??? quy???n ch???ng ch??o c???a Trung Qu???c v???i Vi???t Nam ??? Bi???n ????ng v?? s??? x??ch m??ch li??n t???c gi???a hai b??n ???? cung c???p cho Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c m???t k???ch b???n c?? s???n ????? ti???n h??nh c??c ho???t ?????ng chi???m gi??? v?? ph??ng th??? h???i ?????o, c??ng v???i c??c chi???n d???ch c?? ph???i h???p tr??n bi???n ch???ng l???i m???t ?????i th??? khu v???c.

Theo Grossman, Trung Qu???c v?? Vi???t Nam v??o n??m 1988 ???? t???ng c?? m???t cu???c giao tranh ng???n ng???i t???i ???? G???c Ma (Johnson South Reef), v???i h??? qu??? l?? B???c Kinh chi???m c??? c??c th???c th??? tr?????c ???? do Vi???t Nam ki???m so??t. Tuy nhi??n, tr???n ????nh ???? kh??c xa v???i ki???u xung ?????t m?? Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c???n ti???n h??nh ????? ki???m tra n??ng l???c th???c hi???n v?? duy tr?? c??c chi???n d???ch qu??n s??? c?? ph???i h???p.

G???n ????y h??n, v??o th??ng 5 n??m 2014, Trung Qu???c v?? Vi???t Nam ???? xung ?????t v???i nhau quanh gi??n khoan HD-981 m?? B???c Kinh mang v??o v??ng th???m l???c ?????a c???a Vi???t Nam tr??n Bi???n ????ng. M???c d?? xung ?????t ch??? di???n ra gi???a c??c l???c l?????ng tu???n duy??n v?? t??u c??, nh??ng m???t s??? l?????ng h???n ch??? t??u H???i Qu??n Trung Qu???c c??ng ???? t??c tr???c g???n ????, d??? ph??ng tr?????ng h???p leo thang. L???n ?????ng ????? t???i ????y c?? th??? r???t kh??c.

L?? do th??? hai : Tr??nh ???????c vi???c l??i k??o M??? v??o cu???c chi???n

L?? do th??? hai, theo chuy??n gia Grossman, l?? Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c g???n nh?? ch???c ch???n s??? th??ch lao v??o m???t cu???c chi???n kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng l??i k??o Hoa K??? v??o cu???c.

Do vi???c Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c v???n ch??a tr??? th??nh ?????o qu??n ?????ng c???p th??? gi???i, n??n r???t h???p l?? khi cho r???ng Trung Qu???c ngay l??c n??y, ch??a s???n s??ng x??? l?? m???t k???ch b???n c?? M??? (cho d?? d?? nhi??n h??? s??? chi???n ?????u, n???u b??? b???t bu???c). ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? n???u chi???n ?????u v???i c??c n?????c c?? hi???p ?????c an ninh v???i M??? nh?? ??c, Nh???t B???n, Philippines, H??n Qu???c v?? Th??i Lan, c?? r???t nhi???u nguy c?? l?? Trung Qu???c ph???i ch???m tr??n M???, ??i???u m?? B???c Kinh kh??ng mong mu???n.

Trong s??? c??c qu???c gia v???a k???, Trung Qu???c ??ang c?? tranh ch???p ch??? quy???n v???i Nh???t B???n v?? Philippines, nh???ng tranh ch???p c?? th??? d???n ?????n xung ?????t v?? trang. Tuy nhi??n, trong tr?????ng h???p Nh???t B???n, Washington n??m 2014 ???? n??i r?? l?? vi???c b???o v??? quy???n ki???m so??t h??nh ch??nh c???a Nh???t B???n ?????i v???i qu???n ?????o Senkaku/??i???u Ng?? b??? Trung Qu???c tranh ch???p ??? Bi???n Hoa ????ng, n???m trong ph???m vi ??p d???ng c???a hi???p ?????c an ninh M???-Nh???t.

T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, v??o th??ng 3 n??m 2019, Hoa K??? nh???c l???i r???ng m???t cu???c t???n c??ng v??o l???c l?????ng v?? trang ho???c t??u thuy???n nh?? n?????c c???a Philippines s??? k??ch ho???t Hi???p ?????c Ph??ng Th??? H??? T????ng M???-Phi. Cho d?? cam k???t c???a Hoa K??? d?????ng nh?? kh??ng nh???t thi???t bao h??m vi???c Trung Qu???c x??m l?????c c??c h??n ?????o ??ang tranh ch???p ??? Tr?????ng Sa, nh?? ?????o Th??? T???, tuy nhi??n, ??i???u ???? ch???ng t??? Washington c??ng ch?? ?? ?????n vi???c b???o v??? Manila trong khu v???c.

????ng ch?? ?? l?? s??? ki???n Washington kh??ng c?? li??n minh an ninh ch??nh th???c v???i ????i Loan, m???t nguy c?? cho ?????o n??y. ??i???u ???? tuy nhi??n ch??? ????ng trong m???t ch???ng m???c n??o ????, v?? Lu???t Quan H??? v???i ????i Loan c???a M??? bu???c Washington ph???i b???o v??? ????i B???c ch???ng l???i s??? x??m l?????c c???a qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c, k??? c??? khi hai b??n kh??ng c?? li??n minh qu??n s??? ch??nh th???c.

Kh??ng gi???ng nh?? c??c ?????ng minh c???a M??? trong l??nh v???c an ninh, c??ng nh?? tr?????ng h???p ?????c bi???t c???a ????i Loan, Vi???t Nam s??? kh??ng ???????c Washington h??? tr??? v??? qu??n s???.

Ch???ng h???n, trong v??? gi??n khoan HD-981 th??ng 5 n??m 2014, M??? ch??? ra tuy??n b??? quy tr??ch nhi???m cho Trung Qu???c v?? k??u g???i c??? hai b??n duy tr?? h??a b??nh v?? tu??n th??? lu???t ph??p qu???c t???.

Tuy nhi??n, quan h??? qu???c ph??ng Hoa K???-Vi???t Nam ???? c?? nh???ng b?????c ti???n l???n trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y, v???i m???t t??u s??n bay M??? ?????n th??m ???? N???ng v??o th??ng 3 n??m 2018 - l???n ?????u ti??n k??? t??? khi k???t th??c Chi???n Tranh Vi???t Nam.

D?? sao th?? ch??nh s??ch qu???c ph??ng ???ba kh??ng??? c???a Vi???t Nam nghi??m c???m c??c li??n minh v??? an ninh, qu??n s???, khi???n H?? N???i kh?? c?? th??? t??m c??ch ng??n ch???n Trung Qu???c th??ng qua m???t tuy??n b??? ch??nh th???c v???i Washington. Do ????, B???c Kinh c?? l??? ???? c???m th???y t????ng ?????i y??n t??m, v?? s??? can thi???p c???a Hoa K??? ??t c?? kh??? n??ng x???y ra trong tr?????ng h???p c???a Vi???t Nam.

L?? do th??? ba : Vi???t Nam c?? th??? b??? ????nh th???ng d??? d??ng

L?? do th??? ba v?? cu???i c??ng theo chuy??n gia M???, l?? Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c?? l??? s??? th??ch m???t cu???c chi???n tranh m?? h??? c?? th??? chi???n th???ng.

M???c d?? ????y l?? m???t ??i???u hi???n nhi??n, nh??ng l?? do n??y ?????c bi???t quan tr???ng do vi???c Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c???m th???y b???i r???i sau khi b??? thua trong cu???c xung ?????t bi??n gi???i n??m 1979 ch???ng l???i Vi???t Nam. C??i may m???n cho Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c v??o l??c n??y l?? h??? s??? c?? l???i th??? qu??n s??? ??p ?????o ??? Bi???n ????ng.

?????i v???i chuy??n gia Grossman, vi???c hi???n ?????i h??a qu??n ?????i Vi???t Nam trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y ???? h?????ng ?????n vi???c b???o v??? l??nh th???, v?? n???u c???n thi???t, m??? m???t cu???c t???n c??ng b???t ng??? v?? ngo???n m???c v??o c??c v??? tr?? c???a Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ????? bu???c B???c Kinh xu???ng thang chi???n tranh. Nh??ng n???u Trung Qu???c v?????t qua ???????c chi???n l?????c ????nh ???ch???y m??u m??i??? n??y, th?? Vi???t Nam kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng duy tr?? c??c ho???t ?????ng ngang t???m v???i Trung Qu???c, do thi???u ng?????i v?? ph????ng ti???n.

Ngo??i ra, trong l??nh v???c quan tr???ng l?? h???c thuy???t qu??n s???, Vi???t Nam ch??a bao gi??? th???c s?? chi???n ?????u trong c??c l??nh v???c kh??ng qu??n v?? h???i qu??n (m???c d?? c??ng ph???i th???a nh???n l?? Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c??ng v???y). ??i???m ???? l??m d???y l??n ho??i nghi l???n v??? kh??? n??ng H?? N???i c?? th??? ti???n h??nh chi???n d???ch h???p ?????ng binh ch???ng t??? ?????u. Thay v??o ????, Vi???t Nam c?? th??? s??? t???p trung h??n v??o vi???c ch???ng l???i c??c l???c l?????ng d??n qu??n v?? c???nh s??t bi???n Trung Qu???c trong nh???ng c??i g???i l?? ???v??ng x??m???, v?? ????y l?? k???ch b???n kh??? thi nh???t trong t????ng lai.

D?? sao th?? vi???c Vi???t Nam ch??? l?? m???t c?????ng qu???c b???c trung, n??n d??? b??? ????nh b???i, c?? th??? gi??p T???p C???n B??nh c???i thi???n n??ng l???c c???a Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c.

C???n theo d??i quan h??? Vi???t Nam-Trung Qu???c t???i Bi???n ????ng

Trong ph???n k???t lu???n, chuy??n gia Derek Grossman c??ng nh???n r???ng c??c l???p lu???n ??ng ????a ra mang t??nh ch???t c??? t??nh khi??u kh??ch, nh??ng d???a tr??n nh???ng s??? ki???n th???c t??? v?? l?? lu???n c?? c?? s???.

?????i v???i ??ng Grossman, Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c v?? ch??nh quy???n B???c Kinh c?? l??? kh??ng t??m ki???m m???t cu???c chi???n v???i Vi???t Nam, v?? chi???n tranh c?? th??? l??m gi??n ??o???n nghi??m tr???ng s??? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c v?? c?? th??? l??m t???n h???i th??m ?????n uy t??n v?? m???i quan h??? qu???c t??? c???a B???c Kinh v???i Hoa K???.

Nh??ng n???u m???t t??nh hu???ng khu v???c d???n ?????n vi???c ph???i s??? d???ng v?? l???c, th?? Vi???t Nam s??? l?? ?????a b??n ???kh???i ?????ng??? ??a th??ch c???a Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c, v???a mang l???i kinh nghi???m chi???n ?????u r???t c???n thi???t cho trong c??c l??nh v???c kh??ng qu??n v?? h???i qu??n, v???a kh??ng s??? b??? M??? can thi???p, v???a d??? d??ng mang l???i chi???n th???ng cho Trung Qu???c.

Kh??ng c?? ?????i th??? n??o ngo??i Vi???t Nam c?? th??? mang l???i cho Qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c c??c ??i???u ki???n thu???n l???i nh?? v???y. Do ????, ch??ng ta c???n ph???i ch?? ?? h??n trong th???i gian t???i ????y v??? quan h??? Trung Qu???c-Vi???t Nam ??? Bi???n ????ng.