11/08/1952: Hussein l??n k??? v??? ngai v??ng Jordan

Chủ nhật - 11/08/2019 08:07
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1952, Ho??ng t??? Hussein ???? ???????c tuy??n l??m vua Jordan sau khi cha ??ng, vua Talal, b??? Qu???c h???i Jordan ph??? tru???t v???i l?? do m???c b???nh t??m th???n. Hussein ch??nh th???c l??n ng??i v??o sinh nh???t l???n th??? 18 c???a m??nh, ng??y 14/11/1953. ??ng l?? v??? vua l???p hi???n th??? ba c???a Jordan v?? l?? th??nh vi??n c???a tri???u ?????i Hashemite, ???????c cho l?? d??ng d??i h???u du??? c???a nh?? ti??n tri Muhammad.
11/08/1952: Hussein l??n k??? v??? ngai v??ng Jordan

11/08/1952: Hussein l??n k??? v??? ngai v??ng Jordan

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Ngu???n: Hussein succeeds to Jordanian throneHistory.com

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1952, Ho??ng t??? Hussein ???? ???????c tuy??n l??m vua Jordan sau khi cha ??ng, vua Talal, b??? Qu???c h???i Jordan ph??? tru???t v???i l?? do m???c b???nh t??m th???n. Hussein ch??nh th???c l??n ng??i v??o sinh nh???t l???n th??? 18 c???a m??nh, ng??y 14/11/1953. ??ng l?? v??? vua l???p hi???n th??? ba c???a Jordan v?? l?? th??nh vi??n c???a tri???u ?????i Hashemite, ???????c cho l?? d??ng d??i h???u du??? c???a nh?? ti??n tri Muhammad.

Trong su???t g???n n??m th???p ni??n c???m quy???n, Hussein ???? duy tr?? m???i quan h??? t???t v???i ph????ng T??y v?? gi??p n???n kinh t??? Jordan ph??t tri???n ???n ?????nh. ??ng c??ng ???? ????a ?????t n?????c chi???n ?????u ch???ng l???i Israel trong Chi???n tranh S??u ng??y 1967 v?? sau ???? ti???p t
 

Tranh c??i v??? c??c m?? h??nh trong kinh t??? h???c

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Ngu???n: Dani Rodrik, ???Economists vs. Economics???, Project Syndicate, 10/09/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Qu???nh Chi | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

K??? t??? cu???i th??? k??? 19, khi ng??nh kinh t??? h???c ng??y c??ng s??? d???ng nhi???u to??n h???c v?? th???ng k?? h??n, ????a ra nh???ng tuy??n b??? r???ng n?? l?? m???t ng??nh khoa h???c, th?? nh???ng ng?????i l??m ngh??? ???? b??? c??o bu???c h??ng lo???t t???i danh. C??c c??o bu???c, bao g???m s??? ki??u c??ng, th??? ?? v???i nh???ng m???c ti??u x?? h???i ngo??i thu nh???p, quan t??m qu?? m???c t???i nh???ng k??? thu???t ch??nh th???ng, v?? thi???u kh??? n??ng d??? ??o??n nh???ng di???n bi???n kinh t??? l???n nh?? c??c cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh ??? th?????ng ?????n t??? nh???ng ng?????i ngo???i ?????o, ho???c t??? nh???ng nh??m kh??ng ch??nh th???ng b??n l???. Nh??ng g???n ????y d?????ng nh?? ?????n c??? nh???ng c??y ??a c??y ????? c???a ng??nh n??y c??ng kh??ng c???m th???y h??i l??ng.

Paul Krugman, m???t ng?????i ???????c gi???i th?????ng Nobel ?????ng th???i ph??? tr??ch m???t m???c b??o (tr??n New York Times), ???? h??nh th??nh th??i quen ????? k??ch gay g???t s??? ra ?????i c???a c??c m?? h??nh kinh t??? v?? m?? m???i nh???t v?? b??? qua nh???ng s??? th???t l??u nay d???a tr??n quan ??i???m c???a Keynes. Paul Romer, m???t trong nh???ng nh?? kh???i l???p thuy???t t??ng tr?????ng m???i, ???? bu???c t???i m???t s??? t??n tu???i h??ng ?????u, bao g???m ng?????i ??o???t gi???i Nobel Robert Lucas, v??? nh???ng ??i???u m?? ??ng g???i l?? ???to??n h???c h??a ??i??n r?????? (???mathiness???) ??? s??? d???ng to??n h???c ????? l??m r???c r???i th??m thay v?? l??m s??ng t??? v???n ?????.

Richard Thaler, m???t nh?? kinh t??? h???c h??nh vi ????ng k??nh t???i tr?????ng ?????i h???c Chicago, ???? ch??? tr??ch ngh??? n??y v?? l??m ng?? nh???ng h??nh vi trong th??? gi???i th???c t??? ????? s??? d???ng c??c m?? h??nh v???n gi??? ?????nh r???ng con ng?????i l?? nh???ng k??? t???i ??a h??a l???i ??ch c?? l?? tr??. V?? gi??o s?? t??i ch??nh Luigi Zingales, c??ng ?????n t??? ?????i h???c Chicago, ???? bu???c t???i nh???ng chuy??n gia t??i ch??nh ?????ng m??n c???a ??ng l?? ???? d???n d???t x?? h???i ??i l???c ???????ng b???ng vi???c ph??ng ?????i nh???ng l???i ??ch ???????c t???o ra b???i ng??nh t??i ch??nh.

H??nh th???c ph?? ph??n b???i nh???ng t??n tu???i l???n trong ng??nh l?? ho??n to??n l??nh m???nh v?? ???????c ch??o ????n ??? ?????c bi???t l?? trong m???t l??nh v???c m?? v???n th?????ng thi???u nhi???u s??? t??? nh??n nh???n. T??i c??ng th?????ng xuy??n ch??? tr??ch nh???ng quan ni???m l??u ?????i trong b??? m??n n??y ??? nh?? th??? tr?????ng t??? do v?? t??? do th????ng m???i.

Nh??ng c?? m???t ???n ?? kh??ng th???ng nh???t trong v??ng ph?? ph??n m???i n??y c???n ph???i ???????c l??m r?? ??? v?? ph???i ???????c b??c b???. Kinh t??? h???c kh??ng ph???i b??? m??n khoa h???c m?? trong ???? ch??? c?? m???t m?? h??nh ????ng duy nh???t c?? th??? ??p d???ng t???t nh???t trong t???t c??? c??c ho??n c???nh. V???n ????? ??? ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? ????????t ???????c s??? ?????ng thu???n v??? vi???c m?? h??nh n??o ????ng,??? nh?? Romer ???? n??i, m?? l?? ????? t??m ra m?? h??nh n??o ??p d???ng t???t nh???t trong m???t t??nh hu???ng c??? th???. V?? th???c hi???n ???????c ??i???u n??y s??? lu??n l?? m???t ngh??? thu???t, ch??? kh??ng ph???i khoa h???c, ?????c bi???t khi l???a ch???n ph???i ???????c ????a ra theo th???i gian th???c.

Th??? gi???i x?? h???i kh??c v???i th??? gi???i v???t ch???t v?? n?? l?? th??? gi???i nh??n t???o v?? v?? th??? n?? g???n nh?? c?? th??? ???????c u???n n???n kh??ng gi???i h???n. V?? th???, kh??ng gi???ng khoa h???c t??? nhi??n, kinh t??? h???c ti???n l??n v??? m???t khoa h???c kh??ng ph???i b???ng c??ch thay th??? nh???ng m?? h??nh c?? b???ng nh???ng m?? h??nh t???t h??n, m?? b???ng c??ch m??? r???ng th?? vi???n c??c m?? h??nh, trong ???? m???i m?? h??nh s??? gi???i th??ch cho m???t s??? ki???n x?? h???i kh??c nhau.

V?? d???, ch??ng ta gi??? ????y c?? r???t nhi???u m?? h??nh th??? tr?????ng c???nh tranh kh??ng ho??n h???o ho???c th??ng tin b???t ?????i x???ng. Nh???ng m?? h??nh n??y kh??ng l??m cho nh???ng m?? h??nh ti???n b???i v???n d???a tr??n c???nh tranh ho??n h???o tr??? n??n l???c h???u ho???c kh??ng ph?? h???p. Ch??ng ch??? cho ch??ng ta ?? th???c cao h??n v??? vi???c nh???ng ho??n c???nh kh??c nhau ????i h???i nh???ng m?? h??nh kh??c nhau.

T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, c??c m?? h??nh h??nh vi nh???n m???nh vi???c ra quy???t ?????nh d???a tr??n tr???i nghi???m gi??p ch??ng ta th??nh nh???ng nh?? ph??n t??ch gi???i h??n trong nh???ng m??i tr?????ng m?? nh???ng s??? suy x??t, c??n nh???c nh?? v???y c?? th??? l?? r???t quan trong. Ch??ng kh??ng thay th??? nh???ng m?? h??nh l???a ch???n l?? t??nh ??? v???n ti???p t???c l?? c??ng c??? c???n s??? d???ng ?????n trong m???t s??? ho??n c???nh kh??c. M???t m?? h??nh t??ng tr?????ng m?? ??p d???ng v??o c??c n?????c ti??n ti???n c?? th??? l?? m???t ch??? d???n t???i cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n. C??c m?? h??nh nh???n m???nh s??? k??? v???ng ????i khi l?? t???t nh???t cho vi???c ph??n t??ch c??c m???c l???m ph??t v?? th???t nghi???p; nh??ng trong m???t s??? th???i ??i???m kh??c, c??c m?? h??nh v???i y???u t??? Keynesian l???i c?? hi???u qu??? ??p d???ng v?????t tr???i h??n.

Jorge Luis Borges, m???t nh?? v??n ng?????i Argentina, ???? t???ng vi???t m???t truy???n ng???n ??? m???t ??o???n v??n ??? m?? c?? l??? l?? h?????ng d???n t???t nh???t cho ph????ng ph??p khoa h???c. Trong ????, ??ng m?? t??? m???t v??ng ?????t xa x??i n??i b??? m??n b???n ????? h???c ??? m??n khoa h???c v??? v??? b???n ????? ??? ???????c ?????y ?????n nh???ng th??i c???c n???c c?????i. M???t b???n ????? t???nh chi ti???t ?????n m???c c?? k??ch c??? b???ng c??? m???t th??nh ph???. B???n ????? m???t ????? ch??? th?? r???ng b???ng c??? m???t t???nh.

D???n d???n, c??c nh?? ??o ?????c b???n ????? tr??? n??n tham v???ng h??n: h??? v??? m???t b???n ????? nh?? ch??nh m?? h??nh, th??? hi???n ch??nh x??c v???i t??? l??? 1:1 c???a c??? ????? ch???. Nh?? Borges h??i h?????c vi???t, nh???ng th??? h??? sau ch???ng th???y l???i ??ch th???c t??? n??o c???a m???t t???m b???n ????? r???ng ?????n m???c kh??ng th??? c???m ???????c nh?? v???y. V?? th??? t???m b???n ????? n??y ???? b??? ????? t???i m???c ra ??? sa m???c, c??ng v???i m??n khoa h???c ?????a l?? m?? n?? ?????i di???n.

Nhi???u nh?? khoa h???c x?? h???i ng??y nay v???n ch??a n???m b???t ???????c quan ??i???m c???a Borges: s??? th???u hi???u ????i h???i s??? ????n gi???n h??a. C??ch t???t nh???t ????? ????p l???i s??? ph???c t???p c???a ?????i s???ng x?? h???i kh??ng ph???i l?? thi???t k??? ra nh???ng m?? h??nh c??n nhi???u chi ti???t h??n, m?? l?? t??m hi???u xem nh???ng c?? ch??? h??? qu??? kh??c nhau ho???t ?????ng nh?? th??? n??o, m???t c?? ch??? t???i t???ng th???i ??i???m m???t, v?? sau ???? t??m ra nh???ng m?? h??nh n??o l?? ph?? h???p nh???t trong m???t t??nh hu???ng c??? th???.

Ch??ng ta s??? d???ng m???t b???n ????? n??y n???u ch??ng ta ??ang l??i xe t??? nh?? ?????n ch??? l??m, m???t b???n ????? kh??c n???u ch??ng ta du l???ch ?????n m???t th??nh ph??? kh??c. Nh??ng nh???ng lo???i b???n ????? kh??c nhau s??? c???n ???????c d??ng n???u ch??ng ta ??i xe m??y, ??i b???, ho???c l??n k??? ho???ch d??ng ph????ng ti???n c??ng c???ng.

Xem x??t gi???a c??c m?? h??nh kinh t??? ??? l???a ch???n m?? h??nh n??o ho???t ?????ng hi???u qu??? h??n ??? kh?? h??n r???t nhi???u so v???i vi???c ch???n b???n ????? ????ng. Nh???ng ng?????i l??m ngh??? s??? d???ng h??ng lo???t c??c ph????ng ph??p th???c nghi???m ch??nh th???c v?? phi ch??nh th???c v???i nhi???u k??? thu???t kh??c nhau. V??, trong cu???n s??ch t???i ????y c???a t??i t???a ????? C??c quy lu???t kinh t??? (Economic Rules), t??i ch??? tr??ch vi???c ????o t???o b??? m??n kinh t??? v?? kh??ng trang b??? m???t c??ch th??ch ????ng cho sinh vi??n nh???ng ch???n ??o??n th???c nghi???m m?? b??? m??n n??y ????i h???i.

Nh??ng nh???ng nh?? ph?? b??nh n???i b??? trong ngh??? s??? sai l???m khi cho r???ng b??? m??n n??y ???? ??i sai ???????ng v?? c??c nh?? kinh t??? h???c ch??a th??? ????a ra ?????ng thu???n v??? nh???ng m?? h??nh ???????ng??? (d?? nhi??n ???? l?? nh???ng m?? h??nh h??? y??u th??ch h??n). H??y ????? ch??ng ta t???n h?????ng b??? m??n kinh t??? h???c theo m???i kh??a c???nh ??a d???ng c???a n?? ??? l?? tr?? v?? h??nh vi, Keynesian v?? C??? ??i???n, t???t nh???t v?? t???t th??? hai, ch??nh th???ng v?? kh??ng ch??nh th???ng ??? v?? d???n to??n b??? n??ng l?????ng c???a ch??ng ta v??o vi???c tr??? n??n kh??n ngoan h??n trong l???a ch???n m?? h??nh n??o ????? ??p d???ng v??o l??c n??o.

Dani Rodrik l?? Gi??o s?? ng??nh Kinh t??? Ch??nh tr??? Th??? gi???i t???i Tr?????ng Qu???n tr??? Nh?? n?????c John F. Kennedy thu???c ??H Harvard. ??ng l?? t??c gi??? c???a c??c cu???n s??ch One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth (Princeton University Press, 2009) v??, g???n ????y nh???t, l?? The Globalization Paradox: Democracy and the Future of the World Economy (W. W. Norton & Company, 2012).

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2015 ??? Economists vs. Economics
 

T???i sao ng?????i M??? da tr???ng ??ang t??? h???y ho???i b???n th??n?

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Ngu???n: Fareed Zakaria, ???America???s self-destructive whites???, The Washington Post, 31/12/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Nhung

T???i sao nh??m ng?????i M??? da tr???ng trung l??u ??ang t??? gi???t m??nh? B???n th??n th???c t??? n??y ???? l?? ph??t hi???n quan tr???ng nh???t c???a ng??nh khoa h???c x?? h???i trong nhi???u n??m qua. V?? n?? c??ng ??ang ?????nh h??nh n???n ch??nh tr??? M???. Jeff Guo tr??n t??? Washington Post ???? ch??? ra r???ng nh???ng ng?????i n???m trong nh??m n??y ???l?? l???c l?????ng ch??nh ????a Donald Trump l??n v??? tr?? d???n ?????u trong cu???c ??ua gi??nh  gh??? ???ng c??? vi??n ?????i di???n cho ?????ng C???ng h??a ????? tranh c??? t???ng th???ng.??? C??u h???i m???u ch???t ??? ????y l?? t???i sao, v?? t??m hi???u v???n ????? n??y s??? cho ch??ng ta nh???ng c??u tr??? l???i cho th???y th??i ????? ph???n n??? ??ang chi ph???i n???n ch??nh tr??? M??? n??y s??? ch??? tr??? n??n ng??y c??ng t???i t??? h??n.

Trong su???t nhi???u th???p ni??n, ng?????i d??n ??? c??c n?????c gi??u th?????ng s???ng ng??y m???t th??? h??n. Nh??ng trong m???t b??i vi???t n???i ti???ng, hai nh?? kinh t??? Angus Deaton v?? Anne Case ???? n??u ra ph??t hi???n c???a m??nh, r???ng trong 15 n??m qua, m???t nh??m ng?????i ??? M??? ??ang h??nh th??nh n??n m???t xu h?????ng ng?????c chi???u ????ng ng???i, ???? ch??nh l?? nh??m ng?????i M??? da tr???ng trung ni??n.

T??? l??? t??? vong ??? nh??m n??y c??ng ng??y c??ng t??ng. V?? trong s??? ???? t??nh h??nh c??n t??? h??n ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i ch??? c?? tr??nh ????? trung h???c ph??? th??ng ho???c th???p h??n. D?? c?? ng?????i l??n ti???ng b??y t??? nghi ng??? ?????i v???i nh???ng s??? li???u n??y, nh??ng ngay c??? m???t trong nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch n?? m???nh m??? nh???t c??ng t???ng th???a nh???n r???ng d?? t??nh theo c??ch n??o th?? ???m???c thay ?????i [c???a nh??m n??y] so v???i c??c qu???c gia kh??c v?? c??c nh??m kh??c l?? r???t l???n???.

Nh???ng nguy??n nh??n t??? vong ch??nh c??ng g??y ng???c nhi??n kh??ng k??m: t??? t???, nghi???n r?????u, l???m d???ng thu???c k?? ????n, v?? c??c ch???t g??y nghi???n phi ph??p. ???D?????ng nh?? ng?????i ta ??ang t??? gi???t m??nh, d?? t??? t??? hay nhanh ch??ng.??? Deaton n??i v???i t??i. Ho??n c???nh d???n ?????n nh???ng nguy??n nh??n n??y th?????ng l?? do c??ng th???ng th???n kinh, tr???m c???m, v?? tuy???t v???ng. So v???i c??c qu???c gia c??ng nghi???p kh??c, ch??? c?? duy nh???t s??? gia t??ng v??? s??? ca t??? vong t????ng ??????ng l?? ??? nh??m nam gi???i t???i Nga v??o th???i k??? sau khi Li??n X?? s???p ?????, khi t??? l??? nghi???n r?????u t???i ????y t??ng v???t.

M???t c??ch l?? gi???i th??ng th?????ng cho t??nh tr???ng c??ng th???ng v?? lo ??u c???a t???ng l???p trung l??u n??y l?? xu h?????ng to??n c???u h??a v?? thay ?????i c??ng ngh??? ???? l??m gia t??ng ??p l???c ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i lao ?????ng b??nh th?????ng ??? c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p. Nh??ng xu h?????ng ????ng ng???i n??y l???i kh??ng x???y ra ??? b???t k??? m???t qu???c gia ph????ng T??y n??o kh??c, m?? l?? m???t hi???n t?????ng ri??ng bi???t c???a M???. V?? th???c ch???t M??? t????ng ?????i mi???n nhi???m v???i c??c ??p l???c to??n c???u h??a n??y, nh??? v??o th??? tr?????ng n???i ?????a t??? ch??? v?? r???ng l???n. Th????ng m???i ch??? ????ng g??p 23% v??o n???n kinh t??? M???, so v???i 71% nh?? ??? ?????c v?? 45% nh?? ??? Ph??p.

Deaton ???? suy lu???n v???i t??i r???ng c?? th??? do t??nh h??nh ph??c l???i x?? h???i h??o ph??ng c???a ch??u ??u ???? gi??p xoa d???u nh???ng t??m l?? lo s??? th?????ng ph??t sinh khi c?? bi???n ?????ng ?????t ng???t. Deaton c??ng tin ch???c r???ng ??? M???, c??c b??c s??? v?? nh???ng c??ng ty d?????c ph???m khi gi???i quy???t c??c ??au ?????n v??? th??? ch???t v?? t??m l?? ???? l???m d???ng vi???c k?? ????n thu???c qu?? m???c, bao g???m c??? vi???c d??ng ?????n c??c thu???c gi???m ??au li???u m???nh v?? g??y nghi???n (opioids). Th???i ??i???m c??c thu???c nh?? Oxycontin ??? m???t thu???c gi???m ??au b??n theo ????n c?? t??c d???ng gi???ng heroin ??? ???????c l??u h??nh r???ng r??i tr??ng v???i giai ??o???n t??? l??? t??? vong t??ng cao.

Nh??ng t???i sao ch??ng ta kh??ng th???y xu h?????ng t????ng t??? ??? c??c nh??m ch???ng t???c kh??c ??? M???? Trong khi t??? l??? t??? vong c???a ng?????i M??? trung ni??n kh??ng ?????i ho???c t??ng l??n, th?? con s??? n??y ??? c??c nh??m ng?????i La Tinh ho???c da ??en l???i ti???p t???c gi???m m???nh. Nh???ng nh??m n??y c??ng ??? chung trong m???t ?????t n?????c v?? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nh???ng ??p l???c kinh t??? l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i nh??m da tr???ng. T???i sao h??? l???i kh??ng c??ng ch???u t??m l?? tuy???t v???ng?

C??u tr??? l???i n???m ??? m???c ????? k??? v???ng. Nh?? nh??n ch???ng h???c Carolyn Rouse t??? ??H Princeton trong email trao ?????i v???i t??i ???? cho r???ng, c??c nh??m kh??c c?? th??? kh??ng k??? v???ng thu nh???p, m???c s???ng v?? v??? th??? x?? h???i c???a h??? hi???n nhi??n l?? s??? d???n c???i thi???n. H??? c??ng kh??ng tin t?????ng ch???c ch???n r???ng ch??? c???n l??m vi???c ch??m ch???, h??? s??? c?? th??? v????n l??n trong cu???c s???ng. Tr??n th???c t???, Rouse cho bi???t sau h??ng tr??m n??m ch???u ph???n n?? l???, ph??n bi???t v?? k??? th???, ng?????i da ??en ???? t??? ph??t tri???n ???????c nh???ng bi???n ph??p ?????i ph?? v???i n???i th???t v???ng v?? b???t c??ng trong cu???c s???ng: th??ng qua gia ????nh, ngh??? thu???t, di???n ng??n ph???n ?????i v?? h??n h???t, b???ng t??n gi??o.

???C??c b???n ???? tr??? th??nh nh???ng con ng?????i k??? c???u v??? ch???u ?????ng kh??? ??au kh??ng ng???ng.??? Martin Luther King ???? n??i v???i ng?????i M??? g???c Phi trong b??i di???n v??n ???T??i c?? m???t gi???c m????? n??m 1963: ???H??y ti???p t???c ti???n l??n v???i ni???m tin r???ng n???i th???ng kh??? oan ???c ???y s??? ???????c b?? ?????p.??? Trong m???t b??i vi???t v??o n??m 1960, King ???? d??ng ch??nh nh???ng tr???i nghi???m c?? nh??n ????? gi???i th??ch v???n ????? n??y: ???Khi n???i th???ng kh??? c???a t??i ng??y c??ng ch???ng ch???t, t??i ch???t nh???n ra r???ng ch??? c?? hai c??ch ????? ?????i ph?? v???i ho??n c???nh c???a m??nh: ho???c l?? ph???n ???ng l???i v???i th??i ????? chua ch??t, ho???c l?? t??m c??ch bi???n n???i kh??? ??au n??y th??nh m???t s???c m???nh m???i m??????. V???y gi???ng nh?? l???i Th??nh Phaol??, gi??? ????y t??i c??ng c?? th??? n??i, m???t c??ch khi??m nh?????ng nh??ng ?????y t??? h??o r???ng, ???T??i mang n??i th??n m??nh t??i nh???ng v???t s???o c???a Ch??a Gi??su???.??? Ng?????i La Tinh v?? nh???ng tr???i nghi???m khi nh???p c?? c???a h??? ??? M??? t???t nhi??n c?? ph???n kh??c bi???t. Nh??ng c??ng t????ng t??? nh?? v???y, r???t ??t ng?????i trong nh??m n??y tin r???ng v??? tr?? c???a h??? trong x?? h???i lu??n ???????c ?????m b???o ch???c ch???n. B??? ph???n d??n t???c thi???u s???, v??? c?? b???n, lu??n b??? g???t ra ngo??i r??a. H??? kh??ng m???c ?????nh r???ng h??? th???ng n??y ???????c x??y d???ng cho l???i ??ch c???a h???. H??? n??? l???c h???t m??nh v?? hy v???ng ?????t ???????c th??nh c??ng, nh??ng h??? kh??ng k??? v???ng ???? l?? quy lu???t.

N?????c M??? ??ang tr???i qua m???t cu???c chuy???n bi???n quy???n l???c l???n. T???ng l???p ng?????i lao ?????ng da tr???ng kh??ng t??? coi m??nh thu???c nh??m qu?? t???c, tinh hoa. Nh??ng ??? m???t g??c ????? nh???t ?????nh, h??? ch???c ch???n lu??n b??? so s??nh v???i ng?????i da ??en, La-tinh, ng?????i M??? b???n ?????a v?? ph???n l???n d??n nh???p c??. H??? t???ng l?? trung t??m c???a n???n kinh t??? M???, x?? h???i M???, v?? th???c ch???t c??? b???n s???c M???. Nh??ng gi??? ????y h??? kh??ng c??n ??? v??? tr?? ???y n???a. Donald Trump ???? h???a h???n r???ng ??ng ta s??? thay ?????i c???c di???n n??y v?? s??? gi??p h??? th???ng th??? m???t l???n n???a. Nh??ng ??ng ta kh??ng th??? l??m ???????c ??i???u ???y. Kh??ng ai c?? th???. V?? trong s??u th???m, h??? c??ng bi???t ??i???u n??y.

Fareed Zakaria l?? m???t c??y b??t trong m???c quan h??? qu???c t??? c???a t??? Washington Post. ??ng c??ng l?? ng?????i d???n (host) cho ch????ng tr??nh Fareed Zakaria GPS c???a ????i CNN v?? l?? m???t bi??n t???p vi??n ????ng g??p cho t??? The Atlantic.


T???i sao ng?????i M??? da tr???ng ??ang t??? h???y ho???i b???n th??n?

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

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Ngu???n: Fareed Zakaria, ???America???s self-destructive whites???, The Washington Post, 31/12/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Nhung

T???i sao nh??m ng?????i M??? da tr???ng trung l??u ??ang t??? gi???t m??nh? B???n th??n th???c t??? n??y ???? l?? ph??t hi???n quan tr???ng nh???t c???a ng??nh khoa h???c x?? h???i trong nhi???u n??m qua. V?? n?? c??ng ??ang ?????nh h??nh n???n ch??nh tr??? M???. Jeff Guo tr??n t??? Washington Post ???? ch??? ra r???ng nh???ng ng?????i n???m trong nh??m n??y ???l?? l???c l?????ng ch??nh ????a Donald Trump l??n v??? tr?? d???n ?????u trong cu???c ??ua gi??nh  gh??? ???ng c??? vi??n ?????i di???n cho ?????ng C???ng h??a ????? tranh c??? t???ng th???ng.??? C??u h???i m???u ch???t ??? ????y l?? t???i sao, v?? t??m hi???u v???n ????? n??y s??? cho ch??ng ta nh???ng c??u tr??? l???i cho th???y th??i ????? ph???n n??? ??ang chi ph???i n???n ch??nh tr??? M??? n??y s??? ch??? tr??? n??n ng??y c??ng t???i t??? h??n.

Trong su???t nhi???u th???p ni??n, ng?????i d??n ??? c??c n?????c gi??u th?????ng s???ng ng??y m???t th??? h??n. Nh??ng trong m???t b??i vi???t n???i ti???ng, hai nh?? kinh t??? Angus Deaton v?? Anne Case ???? n??u ra ph??t hi???n c???a m??nh, r???ng trong 15 n??m qua, m???t nh??m ng?????i ??? M??? ??ang h??nh th??nh n??n m???t xu h?????ng ng?????c chi???u ????ng ng???i, ???? ch??nh l?? nh??m ng?????i M??? da tr???ng trung ni??n.

T??? l??? t??? vong ??? nh??m n??y c??ng ng??y c??ng t??ng. V?? trong s??? ???? t??nh h??nh c??n t??? h??n ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i ch??? c?? tr??nh ????? trung h???c ph??? th??ng ho???c th???p h??n. D?? c?? ng?????i l??n ti???ng b??y t??? nghi ng??? ?????i v???i nh???ng s??? li???u n??y, nh??ng ngay c??? m???t trong nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch n?? m???nh m??? nh???t c??ng t???ng th???a nh???n r???ng d?? t??nh theo c??ch n??o th?? ???m???c thay ?????i [c???a nh??m n??y] so v???i c??c qu???c gia kh??c v?? c??c nh??m kh??c l?? r???t l???n???.

Nh???ng nguy??n nh??n t??? vong ch??nh c??ng g??y ng???c nhi??n kh??ng k??m: t??? t???, nghi???n r?????u, l???m d???ng thu???c k?? ????n, v?? c??c ch???t g??y nghi???n phi ph??p. ???D?????ng nh?? ng?????i ta ??ang t??? gi???t m??nh, d?? t??? t??? hay nhanh ch??ng.??? Deaton n??i v???i t??i. Ho??n c???nh d???n ?????n nh???ng nguy??n nh??n n??y th?????ng l?? do c??ng th???ng th???n kinh, tr???m c???m, v?? tuy???t v???ng. So v???i c??c qu???c gia c??ng nghi???p kh??c, ch??? c?? duy nh???t s??? gia t??ng v??? s??? ca t??? vong t????ng ??????ng l?? ??? nh??m nam gi???i t???i Nga v??o th???i k??? sau khi Li??n X?? s???p ?????, khi t??? l??? nghi???n r?????u t???i ????y t??ng v???t.

M???t c??ch l?? gi???i th??ng th?????ng cho t??nh tr???ng c??ng th???ng v?? lo ??u c???a t???ng l???p trung l??u n??y l?? xu h?????ng to??n c???u h??a v?? thay ?????i c??ng ngh??? ???? l??m gia t??ng ??p l???c ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i lao ?????ng b??nh th?????ng ??? c??c n?????c c??ng nghi???p. Nh??ng xu h?????ng ????ng ng???i n??y l???i kh??ng x???y ra ??? b???t k??? m???t qu???c gia ph????ng T??y n??o kh??c, m?? l?? m???t hi???n t?????ng ri??ng bi???t c???a M???. V?? th???c ch???t M??? t????ng ?????i mi???n nhi???m v???i c??c ??p l???c to??n c???u h??a n??y, nh??? v??o th??? tr?????ng n???i ?????a t??? ch??? v?? r???ng l???n. Th????ng m???i ch??? ????ng g??p 23% v??o n???n kinh t??? M???, so v???i 71% nh?? ??? ?????c v?? 45% nh?? ??? Ph??p.

Deaton ???? suy lu???n v???i t??i r???ng c?? th??? do t??nh h??nh ph??c l???i x?? h???i h??o ph??ng c???a ch??u ??u ???? gi??p xoa d???u nh???ng t??m l?? lo s??? th?????ng ph??t sinh khi c?? bi???n ?????ng ?????t ng???t. Deaton c??ng tin ch???c r???ng ??? M???, c??c b??c s??? v?? nh???ng c??ng ty d?????c ph???m khi gi???i quy???t c??c ??au ?????n v??? th??? ch???t v?? t??m l?? ???? l???m d???ng vi???c k?? ????n thu???c qu?? m???c, bao g???m c??? vi???c d??ng ?????n c??c thu???c gi???m ??au li???u m???nh v?? g??y nghi???n (opioids). Th???i ??i???m c??c thu???c nh?? Oxycontin ??? m???t thu???c gi???m ??au b??n theo ????n c?? t??c d???ng gi???ng heroin ??? ???????c l??u h??nh r???ng r??i tr??ng v???i giai ??o???n t??? l??? t??? vong t??ng cao.

Nh??ng t???i sao ch??ng ta kh??ng th???y xu h?????ng t????ng t??? ??? c??c nh??m ch???ng t???c kh??c ??? M???? Trong khi t??? l??? t??? vong c???a ng?????i M??? trung ni??n kh??ng ?????i ho???c t??ng l??n, th?? con s??? n??y ??? c??c nh??m ng?????i La Tinh ho???c da ??en l???i ti???p t???c gi???m m???nh. Nh???ng nh??m n??y c??ng ??? chung trong m???t ?????t n?????c v?? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nh???ng ??p l???c kinh t??? l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i nh??m da tr???ng. T???i sao h??? l???i kh??ng c??ng ch???u t??m l?? tuy???t v???ng?

C??u tr??? l???i n???m ??? m???c ????? k??? v???ng. Nh?? nh??n ch???ng h???c Carolyn Rouse t??? ??H Princeton trong email trao ?????i v???i t??i ???? cho r???ng, c??c nh??m kh??c c?? th??? kh??ng k??? v???ng thu nh???p, m???c s???ng v?? v??? th??? x?? h???i c???a h??? hi???n nhi??n l?? s??? d???n c???i thi???n. H??? c??ng kh??ng tin t?????ng ch???c ch???n r???ng ch??? c???n l??m vi???c ch??m ch???, h??? s??? c?? th??? v????n l??n trong cu???c s???ng. Tr??n th???c t???, Rouse cho bi???t sau h??ng tr??m n??m ch???u ph???n n?? l???, ph??n bi???t v?? k??? th???, ng?????i da ??en ???? t??? ph??t tri???n ???????c nh???ng bi???n ph??p ?????i ph?? v???i n???i th???t v???ng v?? b???t c??ng trong cu???c s???ng: th??ng qua gia ????nh, ngh??? thu???t, di???n ng??n ph???n ?????i v?? h??n h???t, b???ng t??n gi??o.

???C??c b???n ???? tr??? th??nh nh???ng con ng?????i k??? c???u v??? ch???u ?????ng kh??? ??au kh??ng ng???ng.??? Martin Luther King ???? n??i v???i ng?????i M??? g???c Phi trong b??i di???n v??n ???T??i c?? m???t gi???c m????? n??m 1963: ???H??y ti???p t???c ti???n l??n v???i ni???m tin r???ng n???i th???ng kh??? oan ???c ???y s??? ???????c b?? ?????p.??? Trong m???t b??i vi???t v??o n??m 1960, King ???? d??ng ch??nh nh???ng tr???i nghi???m c?? nh??n ????? gi???i th??ch v???n ????? n??y: ???Khi n???i th???ng kh??? c???a t??i ng??y c??ng ch???ng ch???t, t??i ch???t nh???n ra r???ng ch??? c?? hai c??ch ????? ?????i ph?? v???i ho??n c???nh c???a m??nh: ho???c l?? ph???n ???ng l???i v???i th??i ????? chua ch??t, ho???c l?? t??m c??ch bi???n n???i kh??? ??au n??y th??nh m???t s???c m???nh m???i m??????. V???y gi???ng nh?? l???i Th??nh Phaol??, gi??? ????y t??i c??ng c?? th??? n??i, m???t c??ch khi??m nh?????ng nh??ng ?????y t??? h??o r???ng, ???T??i mang n??i th??n m??nh t??i nh???ng v???t s???o c???a Ch??a Gi??su???.??? Ng?????i La Tinh v?? nh???ng tr???i nghi???m khi nh???p c?? c???a h??? ??? M??? t???t nhi??n c?? ph???n kh??c bi???t. Nh??ng c??ng t????ng t??? nh?? v???y, r???t ??t ng?????i trong nh??m n??y tin r???ng v??? tr?? c???a h??? trong x?? h???i lu??n ???????c ?????m b???o ch???c ch???n. B??? ph???n d??n t???c thi???u s???, v??? c?? b???n, lu??n b??? g???t ra ngo??i r??a. H??? kh??ng m???c ?????nh r???ng h??? th???ng n??y ???????c x??y d???ng cho l???i ??ch c???a h???. H??? n??? l???c h???t m??nh v?? hy v???ng ?????t ???????c th??nh c??ng, nh??ng h??? kh??ng k??? v???ng ???? l?? quy lu???t.

N?????c M??? ??ang tr???i qua m???t cu???c chuy???n bi???n quy???n l???c l???n. T???ng l???p ng?????i lao ?????ng da tr???ng kh??ng t??? coi m??nh thu???c nh??m qu?? t???c, tinh hoa. Nh??ng ??? m???t g??c ????? nh???t ?????nh, h??? ch???c ch???n lu??n b??? so s??nh v???i ng?????i da ??en, La-tinh, ng?????i M??? b???n ?????a v?? ph???n l???n d??n nh???p c??. H??? t???ng l?? trung t??m c???a n???n kinh t??? M???, x?? h???i M???, v?? th???c ch???t c??? b???n s???c M???. Nh??ng gi??? ????y h??? kh??ng c??n ??? v??? tr?? ???y n???a. Donald Trump ???? h???a h???n r???ng ??ng ta s??? thay ?????i c???c di???n n??y v?? s??? gi??p h??? th???ng th??? m???t l???n n???a. Nh??ng ??ng ta kh??ng th??? l??m ???????c ??i???u ???y. Kh??ng ai c?? th???. V?? trong s??u th???m, h??? c??ng bi???t ??i???u n??y.

Fareed Zakaria l?? m???t c??y b??t trong m???c quan h??? qu???c t??? c???a t??? Washington Post. ??ng c??ng l?? ng?????i d???n (host) cho ch????ng tr??nh Fareed Zakaria GPS c???a ????i CNN v?? l?? m???t bi??n t???p vi??n ????ng g??p cho t??? The Atlantic.


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