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Vi???t Nam ki???n Trung Qu???c

T??? th??ng 5/2019 ?????n th??ng 8/2019, v???i m???t s??? leo thang l???n l?????t k??p, Trung Qu???c v???a ??i???u t??u c???nh s??t bi???n H???i C???nh 35111 uy hi???p c??c t??u ti???p t??? gi??n khoan ho???t ?????ng t???i m??? Lan ????? trong L?? 06-01, v???a ??i???u t??u H???i D????ng ?????a Ch???t 8, v???i m???t ?????i t??u h??? t???ng h??ng h???u ?????n kh???o s??t c??c l?? 130, 131, 132, 133, 154, 155, 156 v?? 157 tr??n m???t di???n t??ch 31.000 km?? trong v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? (EEZ) c???a Vi???t Nam.
Vi???t Nam ki???n Trung Qu???c

11 c??u h???i quanh kh??? n??ng Vi???t Nam ki???n Trung Qu???c v??? B??i T?? Ch??nh

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Trung Qu???c kh???o s??t v?? uy hi???p b??n trong EEZ 200 h???i l?? c???a Vi???t Nam ??? B???n ????? Phan Van Song

T??c gi???: D????ng Danh Huy

???Tr??nh sao kh???i tai h???a v??? sau???

T??? th??ng 5/2019 ?????n th??ng 8/2019, v???i m???t s??? leo thang l???n l?????t k??p, Trung Qu???c v???a ??i???u t??u c???nh s??t bi???n H???i C???nh 35111 uy hi???p c??c t??u ti???p t??? gi??n khoan ho???t ?????ng t???i m??? Lan ????? trong L?? 06-01, v???a ??i???u t??u H???i D????ng ?????a Ch???t 8, v???i m???t ?????i t??u h??? t???ng h??ng h???u ?????n kh???o s??t c??c l?? 130, 131, 132, 133, 154, 155, 156 v?? 157 tr??n m???t di???n t??ch 31.000 km?? trong v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? (EEZ) c???a Vi???t Nam.

C??ng ?????c LHQ v??? Lu???t Bi???n (UNCLOS) kh??ng cho ph??p ????n ph????ng kh???o s??t t??i nguy??n hay nghi??n c???u khoa h???c bi???n trong EEZ c???a n?????c kh??c.

N??m 2017 v?? 2018 Trung Qu???c ???? g??y ??p l???c khi???n Vi???t Nam ph???i ng??ng Repsol ho???t ?????ng trong c??c l?? 07-03 v?? 136-03 g???n ????, v?? n??m 2012, ????? tr??? ????a vi???c Vi???t Nam ban h??nh lu???t bi???n, Trung Qu???c ???? rao th???u cho 160.000 km?? trong EEZ c???a Vi???t Nam, trong ???? c?? c??c l?? 130, 131, 132, 133, 154, 155, 156 v?? 157, m?? h??? g???i l?? RJ03 v?? RJ27. D?? nhi??n ?????ng th??i m???i c???a Trung Qu???c l?? nh???ng b?????c ti???n trong m???t qu?? tr??nh c?? ch??? ????ch v?? s??? kh??ng ph???i l?? nh???ng b?????c cu???i c??ng.

C??c l?? 05-2, 05-3, 06-1, 07-3, 136-3, c??ng ty d???u kh?? t???ng v?? ??ang b??? ??e d???a ??? B???n ????? MM Marine

Ng??y x??a, Tr???n H??ng ?????o th???y ???s??? ng???y ??i l???i ngh??nh ngang ngo??i ???????ng, u???n t???c l?????i c?? di???u m?? l??ng nh???c tri???u ????nh; ??em t???m th??n d?? ch?? m?? khinh r??? t??? ph???; ???m???nh H???t T???t Li???t m?? ????i ng???c l???a ????? ph???ng s??? l??ng tham kh??n c??ng; kho??c hi???u V??n Nam V????ng m?? h???ch b???c v??ng, ????? v??t ki???t c???a kho c?? h???n. Th???t kh??c n??o ??em th???t n??m cho h??? ????i, tr??nh sao kh???i tai h???a v??? sau???, l??m ??ng ???th?????ng t???i b???a qu??n ??n, n???a ????m v??? g???i, ru???t ??au nh?? c???t, n?????c m???t ?????m ????a; ch??? gi???n ch??a th??? x??? th???t, l???t da, ??n gan, u???ng m??u qu??n th??; d???u cho tr??m th??n ta ph??i ngo??i n???i c???, ngh??n th??y ta b???c trong da ng???a, c??ng nguy???n xin l??m.???

Ng??y nay, Vi???t Nam l???i ?????ng tr?????c t??nh tr???ng ???h??? ????i, tr??nh sao kh???i tai h???a v??? sau??? v?? B???c Kinh l???i u???n t???c l?????i b???o Vi???t Nam ph???i ??????ng x??? cho ????ng???, ???t??n tr???ng ch??? quy???n Trung Qu???c??? v?? ????????ng l??m ph???c t???p t??nh h??nh???.

Ch??ng ta kh??ng s??nh ???????c v???i ng?????i h??ng anh x??a, nh??ng may m???n ???????c s???ng trong m???t th??? gi???i c?? nh???ng bi???n ph??p h??a b??nh ????? b???o v??? quy???n l???i c???a ?????t n?????c. N???u b??? ph?? c??? nh???ng bi???n ph??p ???? th?? ???ch???ng kh??c n??o quay m??i gi??o m?? xin ?????u h??ng, gi?? tay kh??ng m?? ch???u thua gi???c??? h?? c??n m???t m??i n??o ?????ng trong c??i tr???i che ?????t ch??? n??y n???a????

C?? ch??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p UNCLOS

B??i vi???t n??y s??? c??? g???ng, qua c??c c??u h???i v?? tr??? l???i, cung c???p th??ng tin v??? m???t trong nh???ng bi???n ph??p v??n minh nh???t, b??nh ?????ng nh???t, v???i n?? ch?? nh??n c?? th??? thay c?????ng b???o nh?? Nguy???n Tr??i ???? vi???t. ???? l?? ki???n Trung Qu???c.

1. Ki???n Trung Qu???c v??? ??i???u g???

Vi???t Nam c???n ki???n Trung Qu???c vi ph???m v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? v?? th???m l???c ?????a c???a Vi???t Nam.

2. N???u Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch???p nh???n ra t??a?

UNCLOS, trong Ph???n XV v?? c??c Ph??? l???c li??n quan, quy ?????nh v??? m???t c?? ch??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p b???t bu???c cho c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n, trong ???? c?? Vi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c. C?? ch??? n??y cho ph??p c??c th??nh vi??n ki???n nhau v??? c??c tranh ch???p li??n quan ?????n vi???c di???n gi???i v?? ??p d???ng C??ng ?????c, trong ???? c?? tranh ch???p v??? v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? v?? th???m l???c ?????a.

V???i c?? ch??? n??y, d?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch???p nh???n ra t??a c??ng kh??ng ng??n c???n ???????c v??? ki???n. Trung Qu???c c??? ?? kh??ng gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p m???t c??ch c??ng b???ng, v?? m???c ????ch c???a c?? ch??? n??y ch??nh l?? ????? cho c??c th??nh vi??n UNCLOS c?? th??? tho??t kh???i nh???ng s??? c??? ?? t???i t??? nh?? th???.

Tuy c?? ch??? n??y c???n h???i t??? ????? m???t s??? ??i???u ki???n v?? c?? m???t s??? h???n ch???, th?? d??? nh?? trong ??i???u 297 v?? 298, vi???c v??? ki???n Phi-Trung 2013-2016 ???????c th??? l?? cho th???y kh??? n??ng l?? n???u Vi???t Nam ki???n v?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch???p nh???n ra t??a th?? t??a c??ng s??? th??? l??.

3. Sao kh??ng ki???n Trung Qu???c chi???m Ho??ng Sa, Tr?????ng Sa?

B???n ch???t c???a tranh ch???p Ho??ng Sa, Tr?????ng Sa l?? tranh ch???p ch??? quy???n, kh??ng ph???i l?? di???n gi???i v?? ??p d???ng UNCLOS.

C?? ch??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p b???t bu???c c???a UNCLOS kh??ng bao g???m nh???ng tranh ch???p m?? b???n ch???t l?? tranh ch???p ch??? quy???n. T??a ??n C??ng l?? Qu???c t??? c??ng kh??ng c?? th???m quy???n ????? x??? tranh ch???p Ho??ng Sa, Tr?????ng Sa cho ?????n khi m???i b??n trong tranh ch???p ???? ch???p nh???n th???m quy???n c???a T??a b???ng m???t trong nh???ng h??nh th???c trong ??i???u 36 v?? 37 c???a Quy ch??? c???a T??a, v?? hi???n nay ??i???u ki???n ???? ch??a ???????c ????p ???ng.

4. T??a n??o s??? x????

??i???u 287 c???a UNCLOS cho ph??p c??c b??n trong tranh ch???p tuy??n b??? ch???n ph????ng ti???n ph??n x???, th?? d??? nh?? T??a ??n C??ng l?? Qu???c t??? hay T??a Tr???ng t??i Qu???c t??? v??? Lu???t Bi???n (ITLOS), nh??ng ph????ng c??ch m???c ?????nh l?? m???t H???i ?????ng Tr???ng t??i (H??TT) l??m-c???p th???i (ad hoc) ???????c thi???t l???p theo Ph??? l???c VII c???a UNCLOS.

H???i ?????ng bao g???m n??m tr???ng t??i: m???i b??n ???????c ch???n m???t v?? c??c b??n c??ng nhau ch???n s??? c??n l???i. N???u kh??ng ????? n??m tr???ng t??i v?? c??c b??n kh??ng ?????ng ?? v???i nhau, hay c?? b??n kh??ng ch???n, th?? Ch??? t???ch T??a Tr???ng t??i Qu???c t??? v??? Lu???t Bi???n s??? ch???n. Ch??nh m???t H??TT nh?? th??? ???? ph??n x??? v??? ki???n Phi-Trung Philippines ch???n m???t tr???ng t??i, nh??ng Trung Qu???c kh??ng tham gia, v?? Ch??? t???ch ITLOS Shunji Yanai ch???n b???n tr???ng t??i c??n l???i.

5. H???i ?????ng Tr???ng t??i kh??ng ph???i l?? T??a ??n C??ng l?? Qu???c t???, ph??n quy???t c???a h??? c?? ?? ngh??a g?? kh??ng?

Ph??n quy???t c???a H??TT ???????c thi???t l???p theo Ph??? l???c VII c???a UNCLOS ho??n to??n c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c gi???a c??c qu???c gia trong v??? ki???n, ?????i v???i c??c qu???c gia n??y th?? kh??ng kh??c g?? T??a ??n C??ng l?? Qu???c t??? ???? x???. Th?? d???, ph??n quy???t 2016 c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c gi???a Philippines v?? Trung Qu???c, d?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng c??ng nh???n.

Tuy nhi??n, ph??n quy???t ???? kh??ng c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c gi???a c??c qu???c gia ???? v?? c??c b??n th??? ba.

6. Ph??n quy???t 2016 ???? b??c b??? ???????ng Ch??? U r???i, ki???n n???a l??m g???

Ph??n quy???t ???? ch??? c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c gi???a Philippines v?? Trung Qu???c. N???u Vi???t Nam mu???n c?? m???t ph??n quy???t c?? t??nh r??ng bu???c gi???a m??nh v?? Trung Qu???c, Vi???t Nam ph???i ki???n Trung Qu???c.

L???i ??ch v?? kh??? n??ng th???ng

7. Ki???n c?? ??ch g?? khi Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng tu??n th????

Ch???c ch???n Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng t??? nguy???n tu??n th??? ph??n quy???t, c??ng nh?? h??? ???? kh??ng tu??n th??? ph??n quy???t 2016 v??? v??? ki???n Phi-Trung.

Nh??ng m???t ph??n quy???t x??c nh???n Vi???t Nam ????ng, Trung Qu???c sai, s??? v?? c??ng h???u ??ch trong vi???c tranh th??? s??? ???ng h??? c???a th??? gi???i. C??c n?????c kh??c, ?????c bi???t l?? M???, c?? th??? ???ng h??? Vi???t Nam m???t c??ch danh ch??nh ng??n thu???n, kh??ng th??? b??? cho l?? thi??n v??? m???t b??n trong tranh ch???p v?? s??? ???ng h??? c???a h??? s??? c?? nhi???u tr???ng l?????ng h??n.

Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng th??? ng???y bi???n r???ng h??? ??ang gi???i quy???t v?? qu???n l?? tranh ch???p v???i c??c n?????c nh??? m???t c??ch t???t ?????p, c??c n?????c ngo??i khu v???c kh??ng n??n xen v??o. C??c n?????c kh??c c?? th??? l??n ti???ng b???o v??? c??c c??ng ty d???u kh?? c???a h??? khi c??c c??ng ty n??y l??m vi???c v???i Vi???t Nam, Trung Qu???c kh??ng th??? y??u c???u h??? r??t ra kh???i ???v??ng tranh ch???p???.

N???u trong t????ng lai Vi???t Nam ph???i ????a tranh ch???p ra LHQ, v?? ch???c ch???n l?? Trung Qu???c s??? leo thang l???n l?????t, n???u c?? trong tay m???t ph??n quy???t x??c nh???n Vi???t Nam ????ng, Trung Qu???c sai, Vi???t Nam s??? ???????c nhi???u phi???u ???ng h??? h??n.

Ngo??i ra, ph??n quy???t c???a H??TT UNCLOS s??? x???ng ????ng v???i ch??nh ngh??a c???a Vi???t Nam h??n l?? c??? ng?????i ph??t ng??n BNG, th???m ch?? c??? ngo???i tr?????ng, ra l???n ng???p trong c?? nh???y v???i c??c t????ng nhi???m Trung Qu???c, trong khi B???c Kinh c??ng ng??y c??ng l???n t???i.

8. L???p lu???n c???a Vi???t Nam s??? l?? g???

L???p lu???n c???a Vi???t Nam c?? th??? l??:

  1. C??c l?? 05, 06, 07, 130, 131, 132, 133, 154, 155, 156, 157 v?? m???t ph???n c???a b??i T?? Ch??nh n???m trong EEZ t??nh t??? l??nh th??? kh??ng b??? tranh ch???p c???a Vi???t Nam.
  2. Ph???n c??n l???i c???a b??i T?? Ch??nh n???m trong th???m l???c ?????a t??nh t??? l??nh th??? kh??ng b??? tranh ch???p c???a Vi???t Nam.
  3. C??c khu v???c n??y n???m d?????i m???t n?????c, do ???? kh??ng n?????c n??o c?? th??? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n ?????i v???i ch??ng. B???t c??? n?????c n??o, t???i ??a c??ng ch??? c?? c??c lo???i quy???n ch??? quy???n v?? quy???n t??i ph??n (kh??c v???i ch??? quy???n) d???a tr??n nguy??n t???c ?????t th???ng tr??? bi???n v?? UNCLOS.
  4. C??c khu v???c n??y kh??ng th??? n???m trong EEZ hay th???m l???c ?????a c???a b???t c??? ?????o n??o ??ang b??? tranh ch???p (t???c l?? c??c ?????o thu???c qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa). (L?? do l?? theo ??i???u 121(3) UNCLOS kh??ng ?????o n??o ???????c h?????ng quy ch??? v??ng EEZ hay th???m l???c ?????a, nh?? H??TT 2016 ???? kh???ng ?????nh).
  5. Trung Qu???c kh??ng th??? c?? quy???n l???ch s??? ?????i v???i v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? hay th???m l???c ?????a c???a Vi???t Nam. (L??u ?? H??TT 2016 ???? kh???ng ?????nh r???ngTrung Qu???c v???a kh??ng h??? c?? quy???n l???ch s??? ?????i v???i v??ng bi???n v?? ????y bi???n b??n ngo??i l??nh h???i 12 h???i l??, v???a kh??ng th??? b???t c?? hai tay, m???t m???t th?? ????i t??? do ti???n-UNCLOS trong vi???c h??? khai th??c b??n trong EEZ c???a c??c n?????c kh??c, m???t m???t th?? kh??ng ch???p nh???n t??? do t??? do ti???n-UNCLOS c???a c??c n?????c kh??c khai th??c b??n trong EEZ c???a h???. Vi???c ph?? chu???n UNCLOS c?? ngh??a ph???i b??? c??? hai s??? t??? do n??y).
  6. V?? v???y c??c khu v???c n??y ho??n to??n thu???c quy???n ch??? quy???n v?? quy???n t??i ph??n c???a Vi???t Nam. (L??u ?? ????y l?? nh???ng quy???n c?? h???n ch??? ???????c UNCLOS quy ?????nh, kh??c v???i ch??? quy???n m?? kh??ng n?????c n??o c?? th??? c??).
  7. Trung Qu???c ???? vi ph???m c??c quy???n n??y c???a Vi???t Nam v?? ph???i ng??ng vi ph???m.
9. Kh??? n??ng Vi???t Nam th???ng l?? bao nhi??u?

????? th???ng, Vi???t Nam ph???i v?????t qua ba th??? th??ch: H???i ?????ng Tr???ng t??i c?? th???m quy???n hay kh??ng (v???n ????? jurisdiction), v??? ki???n c?? th??? ???????c ch???p nh???n hay kh??ng (v???n ????? admissibility), v?? c??c l???p lu???n c???a Vi???t Nam c?? ????ng hay kh??ng (v???n ????? merit). Ba th??? th??ch n??y d???a tr??n c??ng c??c nguy??n t???c trong v??? ki???n Trung-Phi.

Tuy H??TT m???i kh??ng b??? ph??n quy???t 2016 b???t bu???c ph???i x??? Vi???t Nam th???ng, kh??? n??ng l?? Vi???t Nam c??ng s??? th???ng.

Th??? th??ch th??? nh???t t????ng ??????ng v???i trong v??? ki???n Trung-Phi, v?? kh??? n??ng l?? H??TT m???i c??ng s??? k???t lu???n r???ng h??? c?? th???m quy???n.

C??c lu???t gia ???ng h??? Trung Qu???c c?? th??? cho r???ng c??? hai n?????c ?????u ????i ch??? quy???n tr??n qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa nh?? m???t ????n v??? bao g???m c??c th???c th??? v?? c??c v??ng n?????c, do ???? tranh ch???p l?? tranh ch???p ch??? quy???n v?? n???m ngo??i th???m quy???n c???a H??TT. Nh??ng y??u s??ch c???a b???t c??? n?????c n??o c??ng ph???i d???a tr??n nguy??n t???c ?????t th???ng tr??? bi???n, v?? th??m v??o ???? c??c v??ng bi???n trong v??? ki???n n???m qu?? xa qu???n ?????o ????? b???t c??? n?????c n??o c?? th??? ????i ch??? quy???n v???i ch??ng nh?? m???t ????n v??? v???i qu???n ?????o, cho n??n l???p lu???n ???? s??? b??? b??c b???.

Trong th??? th??ch th??? nh??, Vi???t Nam c?? m???t ??i???m m?? Philippines kh??ng c??, ???? l?? b???n ???Th???a thu???n v??? nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n ch??? ?????o gi???i quy???t v???n ????? tr??n bi???n gi???a n?????c CHXHCN Vi???t Nam v?? n?????c CHND Trung Hoa??? ng??y 11/10/2011, trong ???? c?? c??u ????????i v???i tranh ch???p tr??n bi???n gi???a Vi???t Nam-Trung Qu???c, hai b??n gi???i quy???t th??ng qua ????m ph??n v?? hi???p th????ng h???u ngh??????.

C??c lu???t gia ???ng h??? Trung Qu???c c?? th??? khai th??c c??u n??y, di???n gi???i r???ng n?? ???? lo???i c?? ch??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p b???t bu???c c???a UNCLOS. Tuy nhi??n, l???p lu???n c???a H??TT c???a v??? ki???n Phi-Trung trong ph??n quy???t v??? th???m quy???n, ??o???n 222-225, tuy l?? v??? DOC, cho th???y kh??? n??ng l?? di???n gi???i ???? c??ng s??? b??? H??TT m???i b??c b???.

Th??? th??ch th??? ba c?? hai ph???n: b??c b??? y??u s??ch ???quy???n l???ch s??? ?????i v???i EEZ v?? th???m l???c ?????a???, v?? ch???ng minh ???kh??ng c?? EEZ c?? th??? thu???c Tr?????ng Sa ph??? tr??m l??n c??c khu v???c trong v??? ki???n.???

H??TT 2016 ???? b??c b??? y??u s??ch ???quy???n l???ch s??? ?????i v???i EEZ v?? th???m l???c ?????a??? m???t c??ch v???ng ch???c, v?? kh??? n??ng l?? H??TT m???i s??? c??ng nh???n l???p lu???n ????.

??i???m ???kh??ng ?????o n??o trong qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa c?? EEZ??? l?? ??i???m c?? th??? b??? tranh c??i nhi???u nh???t, v?? kh?? c?? th??? ch???c ch???n 100% r???ng H??TT m???i c??ng s??? c??ng nh???n ??i???m ????.

May m???n cho Vi???t Nam, gi??? s??? nh?? H??TT m???i kh??ng c??ng nh???n ??i???m ???? ??i n???a, ba ?????o l???n nh???t, Ba B??nh, Th??? T???, B???n L???c ?????u n???m xa c??c khu v???c trong v??? ki???n.

Gi??? s??? c??c ?????o n??y ???????c cho l?? c?? EEZ ??i n???a, EEZ t???i ??a c???a ch??ng ch??? tr??m ph??? l??n m???t di???n t??ch nh??? c???a c??c khu v???c trong v??? ki???n. N???u c??c lu???t gia ???ng h??? Trung Qu???c ????a ra l???p lu???n ki???u qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa v?? v??ng n?????c l??n c???n l?? m???t ????n v??? ch??? quy???n th?? c??ng v?? ??ch, v?? n???u ???? l?? ???v??ng n?????c l??n c???n??? th?? kh??ng th??? lan ra ?????n c??c khu v???c trong v??? ki???n. Do ????, kh??? n??ng Vi???t Nam th???ng ki???n c??n l???n h??n kh??? n??ng Philippines th???ng khi h??? ????a Trung Qu???c ra t??a.

R???t r?? v?? l??? c?? h???i

10. N???u Trung Qu???c r??t ra kh???i UNCLOS th?? sao?

????y l?? m???t c??u h???i quan tr???ng cho Vi???t Nam. N???u Trung Qu???c r??t ra kh???i UNCLOS tr?????c khi Vi???t Nam n???p ????n ki???n, H??TT s??? kh??ng c??n th???m quy???n ????? x???, Vi???t Nam s??? kh??ng c??n c?? ch??? ????? ????a Trung Qu???c ra T??a.

N??m 2006 Trung Qu???c ???? v???n d???ng ??i???u 298 cho ph??p h??? tuy??n b??? r??t ra kh???i m???t ph???n c???a c?? ch??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p b???t bu???c c???a UNCLOS, ph???n li??n quan ?????n ph??n ?????nh ranh gi???i bi???n. V???i tuy??n b??? ????, Trung Qu???c ???? ??i tr?????c m???t b?????c v?? l??m cho Vi???t Nam m???t ??i c???a ng?? r???ng nh???t ????? ki???n nh???ng b?????c k??? t???i c???a h???: ??u???i BP n??m 2007, ??u???i Exxon Mobil n??m 2008, ph???n ?????i ????? tr??nh c???a Vi???t Nam v??? th???m l???c ?????a n??m 2009, v?? h??ng lo???t nh???ng h??nh ?????ng l???n l?????t kh??c.

N???u Vi???t Nam ????? cho Trung Qu???c ??i b?????c tr?????c l???n n???a, Vi???t Nam s??? m???t ??i c???a ng?? duy nh???t c??n l???i ????? ki???n h???. C?? th??? Trung Qu???c s??? ??i b?????c n??y tr?????c khi h??? b???t ?????u m???t giai ??o???n m???i ????? t?????c ??o???t t??? Vi???t Nam.

11. V???y t???i sao Vi???t Nam kh??ng ki???n?

????y c??ng l?? c??u h???i quan tr???ng cho Vi???t Nam. C?? th??? l?? Vi???t Nam qu?? r???t r??, kh??ng l??m ??i???u t???i ??u, kh??ng t???n d???ng c??c ph????ng ti???n h??a b??nh ????? t??? v???, kh??ng c?? m???t chi???n l?????c t???ng th??? v?? l??u d??i, c?? th??? s??? l??? c?? h???i.

C?? ??i???u ????ng l??u ?? l?? khi Philippines c??n b??? l???n l?????t ??t h??n Vi???t Nam th?? h??? ???? kh???i ki???n Trung Qu???c r???i (n??m 2013), v?? khi ???? h??? kh??ng th??? bi???t nhi???u v??? th???ng-thua nh?? ta bi???t hi???n nay.

??i???u th??? nh?? l?? khi h??? ki???n th?? B???c Kinh ???? n???i gi???n nh??ng kh??ng tr??? ????a.

??i???u th??? ba l?? m???c d?? T???ng th???ng Duterte c?? ch??nh s??ch th??n-s???-thua Trung Qu???c, g??c ph??n quy???t sang m???t b??n, h??? c?? s??? l???a ch???n g??c hay kh??ng ??? Vi???t Nam kh??ng c?? s??? l???a ch???n ????.

??i???u th??? t?? ????ng l??u ?? l?? khi t??u Trung Qu???c ????m ch??m m???t t??u c?? Philippines th?? ng?????i d??n Philippines ph???n ???ng m???nh m???, v?? Trung Qu???c ch??? l???p li???m ???? l?? tai n???n, t??u c???a h??? ?????nh c???u c??c ng?? d??n Philippines b??? n???n, nh??ng do b??? t??m t??u c?? Philippines bao v??y n??n ph???i b??? ??i ??? kh??c h???n khi t??u Trung Qu???c ????m ch??m r???t nhi???u t??u c?? Vi???t Nam v?? kh??ng m???y may ?????m x???a ?????n c??c ph???n ???ng ngo???i giao c???a ch??nh ph??? Vi???t Nam.

B??i vi???t th??? hi????n quan ??i???m ri??ng v?? c??ch h??nh v??n c???a t??c gi???, m????t nh?? nghi??n c???u hi????n ??ang s???ng v?? l??m vi????c t???i Anh Qu???c.

T??c gi??? c???m ??n Th??i V??n C???u, Nguy???n L????ng H???i Kh??i, Phan V??n Song, D??? V??n To??n v?? L?? V??nh Tr????ng ???? g??p ?? cho n????i dung b??i vi???t.

Ngu???n: BBC
 

C??n b???nh c???a gi???i l??nh ?????o n?????c Anh

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johnsoncam

Ngu???n: Lucy P. Marcus, ???The British Leadership Disease???, Project Syndicate, 22/07/2016

Bi??n d???ch: Ho??ng Thu Trang | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Tr??n kh???p th??? gi???i ?????u thi???u c??c l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? c?? ?????o ?????c, t??? Hoa K??? ?????n Th??? Nh?? K???, ?????n Philippines. Nh??ng c?? l??? v?? d??? n???i b???t nh???t v??? s??? l??nh ?????o thi???u trung th???c ???????c t??m th???y t???i Anh, n??i m?? cu???c tr??ng c???u d??n ?? Brexit v?? h??? qu??? c???a n?? g??y ra nhi???u b???t ???n h??n nh???ng g?? m?? n?????c Anh ph???i tr???i qua trong c??? m???t th???p ni??n th??ng th?????ng.

Ch??? trong v??i tu???n ?????u sau cu???c tr??ng c???u, th??? t?????ng Anh David Cameron, ng?????i ???? t???o ra cu???c b??? phi???u n??y, ???? t??? ch???c v?? ng?????i k??? nhi???m c???a ?????ng B???o Th???, Therasa May, ???? b??? nhi???m m???t n???i c??c m???i. D?? m???t s??? ng?????i ???ng h??? Brexit, ????ng l??u ?? nh???t l?? c???u th??? tr?????ng th??nh ph??? London Boris Johnson ??? hi???n t???i ??ang l?? th??nh vi??n ch??nh ph??? m???i, nh??ng kh??ng m???t ai trong s??? nh???ng ng?????i ????  ???ng h??? chi???n d???ch r???i b??? Li??n minh Ch??u ??u ch???u tr??ch nhi???m sau c??ng cho vi???c th???c hi???n ??i???u ????. B???n th??n b?? May c??ng t???ng ???ng h??? chi???n d???ch ?????? l???i???.

Trong khi ????, C??ng ?????ng ?????i l???p r??i v??o t??nh tr???ng h???n lo???n. H???u h???t to??n th??? n???i c??c b??ng (shadow cabinet)[1] ???? t??? ch???c, m???t l??ng tin v??o ng?????i l??nh ?????o ?????ng Jeremy Corbyn, v?? nh???ng n??? l???c ph???n ?????i ??ng tr??? n??n c???c k??? gay g???t, v???i vi???c nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? Corbyn th???m ch?? c??n n??m g???ch v??o c???a s??? v??n ph??ng ti???p d??n c???a m???t trong nh???ng ?????i th??? c???a ??ng.

V?? s??? h???n lo???n sau cu???c tr??ng c???u c??n lan s??u h??n n???a. S??? c??c v??? t???i ph???m xu???t ph??t t??? l??ng c??m gh??t c??c n???n nh??n t??? sau cu???c tr??ng c???u ???????c b??o c??o t??ng ?????n 500%, trong b???i c???nh s??? b???t ?????nh v??? x?? h???i, ch??nh tr??? v?? kinh t??? c??ng v???i s??? b???t m??n ??ang c??ng ng??y lan r???ng. H??n 100 t??? b???ng Anh (t????ng ??????ng 131 t??? ???? la) ???? b??? x??a s???ch kh???i FTSE 100 ch??? trong m?????i ph??t giao d???ch ?????u ti??n ngay sau khi k???t qu??? cu???c tr??ng c???u ???????c th??ng b??o, trong khi ???? gi?? tr??? ?????ng b???ng Anh so v???i ???? la M??? xu???ng th???p nh???t trong 35 n??m tr??? l???i ????y.

M???t trong nh???ng b??i h???c n???i b???t trong tr?????ng h???p c???a n?????c Anh ??? v?? nhi???u n?????c kh??c ??? l?? nh???ng n??? l???c ?????y h???a h???n ????? ?????m b???o tr??ch nhi???m gi???i tr??nh c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o doanh nghi???p trong vi???c ?????m b???o c??c c??ng ty c?? x??? c?? ?????o ?????c ???? kh??ng ???????c ??p d???ng v??o h??? th???ng ch??nh tr??? c???a ch??ng ta. Nh???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o d??n c???, th?????ng l?? nh???ng ng?????i ?????u ti??n y??u c???u c??c doanh nghi???p t?? nh??n c?? m???t chi???n l?????c t???t, k??? ho???ch chuy???n ti???p l??nh ?????o, v?? tr??ch nhi???m gi???i tr??nh, l???i ????ng ng???c nhi??n l?? kh??ng th???c hi???n ch??nh nh???ng g?? h??? rao gi???ng.

Ch??ng ta tr??ng ?????i c??c l??nh ?????o doanh nghi???p l???p k??? ho???ch ?????m b???o s??? ch???c ch???n c???a nh???ng v???n ????? b???t ???n v?? ki???m so??t r???i ro m???t c??ch h???p l??. N??m ngo??i, c??c c??ng ty l???n v?? nh??? ??? Anh, ??? b???t k??? n??i n??o ??? EU v?? tr??n th??? gi???i ???? t??? ch???c v?? s??? c??c cu???c h???p v?? c??c phi??n l???p k??? ho???ch c???p cao ????? chu???n b??? cho cu???c tr??ng c???u Brexit. Khi k???t qu??? ???????c ????a ra, d?????ng nh?? nh???ng ng?????i kh??ng l???p k??? ho???ch cho chi???n th???ng c???a chi???n d???ch ???R???i ??i??? l???i ch??nh l?? nh???ng ng?????i ???? d???n d???t chi???n d???ch ????. Th???c v???y, theo m???t b??o c??o g???n ????y c???a ???y ban ?????i ngo???i ?????c bi???t c???a Ngh??? vi???n, ??ng Cameron ??????? c???u th??? khi c??n nh???c quan ??i???m kh??ng h?????ng d???n cho c??c ban ng??nh quan tr???ng, bao g???m B??? Ngo???i giao, l???p k??? ho???ch cho kh??? n??ng r???ng c??c c??? tri s??? b???u cho vi???c r???i EU???.

Nh?? l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? Anh duy nh???t ???? nhanh ch??ng ????? ra m???t chi???n l?????c r?? r??ng v?? ?????y qu??? quy???t l?? Th??? hi???n Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon. K??? ho???ch c???a b?? l?? t??? ch???c m???t cu???c tr??ng c???u d??n ?? kh??c v??? n???n ?????c l???p c???a Scotland v?? t??i gia nh???p EU.

V?? ch??nh m???t ng?????i ng?????i Canada kh??ng ph???i do d??n c???, Mark Carney, th???ng ?????c Ng??n h??ng Trung ????ng Anh (Bank of England), ng?????i m?? s??? b???o ?????m ?????y uy t??n c???a ??ng ???? gi??p b??nh ???n th??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh. V??o n??m 2015, Carney ???? b??? ch??? tr??ch v?? th??nh l???p m???t ???y ban ????? th???c hi???n vi???c l???p k??? ho???ch cho kh??? n??ng x???y ra Brexit. V?? v??o ?????u th??ng 7, ??ng ???? ???????c g???i ?????n ????? ??i???u tr???n tr?????c ???y ban T??i ch??nh H??? vi???n, v?? ???? b??? l??n ??n l?? ???ng h??? phe ?????? l???i??? tr?????c khi cu???c tr??ng c???u d??n ?? di???n ra ch??? b???i v?? ??ng ???? ????a ra m???t ????nh gi?? ???m ?????m (v?? ch??nh x??c) v??? h???u qu??? kinh t??? m?? chi???n th???ng c???a phe R???i ??i mang l???i.

Khi Nigel Farage, m???t trong nh???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o c???c ??oan v?? ???n ??o nh???t trong chi???n d???ch R???i kh???i EU, quy???t ?????nh t??? ch???c l??nh ?????o ?????ng Anh qu???c ?????c l???p v??o ng??y 4/7, ??ng ???? n??i r???ng ???T??i mu???n s???ng l???i cu???c s???ng b??nh th?????ng c???a t??i???. N???u l???i n??y nghe c?? v??? quen thu???c, th?? ???? l?? b???i v?? Tony Hayward, l??c ???? l?? CEO c???a BP, ???? s??? d???ng ch??nh c???m t??? n??y khi n??i v??? nh???ng t??c ?????ng c???a s??? c??? tr??n d???u n??m 2010 t???i V???nh Mexico l??n b???n th??n ??ng.

Khi Hayward n??i ??i???u n??y, ??ng ???? nhanh ch??ng b??? l??n ??n. Nh???ng l???i c???a ??ng cho th???y m???t s??? thi???u c???m th??ng ho??n to??n ?????i v???i nh???ng ng?????i th???c s??? b??? ???nh h?????ng b???i v??? tr??n d???u. T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, v???a m???i ???gi??p??? ????a n?????c Anh ?????n th???m h???a, Farage ???? b??? ??i m???t c??ch v?? t??nh ngay khi ch???m t???i ????ch. C??ng ????ng x???u h??? kh??ng k??m l?? vi???c Johnson ???????c b??? nhi???m l??m Ngo???i tr?????ng n???u x??t ?????n l???ch s??? d???i tr?? c???a ??ng ta c??ng nh???ng l???i ph??t ng??n b??i ngo???i v?? ????a ra nh???ng ch??? tr??ch thi???u t??n tr???ng ?????i v???i c??c l??nh ?????o kh??c tr??n th??? gi???i. Nh??ng ??t nh???t ??ng ta s??? ch???u ?????ng v???t nh?? t??? th???m h???a c???a n?????c Anh m???t c??ch c??ng khai.

V???n ????? s??u xa h??n t???i n?????c Anh ch??nh l?? kh??ng c?? m???t s??? l???a ch???n kh??c. C??ng ?????ng ch??? ????n gi???n l?? qu?? b??? chia r??? n??n kh??ng th??? n???m quy???n. N???u Corbyn l?? m???t CEO kh??ng gi??nh ???????c ni???m tin c???a ban ??i???u h??nh v?? h???i ?????ng qu???n tr???, ??ng ta s??? b??? ??p t??? ch???c ho???c b??? sa th???i. N???u m???t CEO kh??ng th??? gi??nh ???????c s??? t??n tr???ng c???a ban l??nh ?????o, ??ng ta kh??ng th??? d???n d???t c??ng ty ?????n th??nh c??ng cho d?? h???u h???t nh??n vi??n c?? ngh?? r???ng ??ng ta l?? ng?????i tuy???t v???i. ??i???u t????ng t??? c??ng ????ng v???i c??c ?????ng ph??i ch??nh tr???, m???c d?? h??? th?????ng m???t nhi???u th???i gian h??n m???i h??nh ?????ng, do ???? khi???n cho doanh nghi???p, m?? trong tr?????ng h???p n??y l?? n?????c Anh, ph???i v??ng v???y trong ?????ng b??n.

V???i r???t ??t ngo???i l???, cu???c b??? phi???u Brexit ???? ph??i b??y nh???ng ??i???u t???i t??? nh???t trong gi???i l??nh ?????o c???a n?????c Anh. N???u m???t CEO n??i d???i c??c nh?? ?????u t?? v?? ng?????i ti??u d??ng nhi???u nh?? Farage, Johnson v?? Michael Gove ???? l??m v???i c??? tri Anh, h???u qu??? s??? n???ng n??? v?? nhanh ch??ng, ?????n t??? th??? tr?????ng v?? nh???ng nh?? ??i???u ti???t c???a ch??nh ph???. Kh??ng ch??? ????n gi???n l?? t??? ch???c v?? s???ng y??n ???n, ch??? ch??a n??i nh???n ???????c m???t ch???c v??? trong t????ng lai ??? t??? ch???c (v?? t???t nhi??n kh??ng th??? l?? ch???c v??? cao c???p). M?? h??? s??? b??? ph???t (ho???c t??? h??n), b??? t???y chay v??? m???t chuy??n m??n v?? b??? sa th???i.

Khi ch??ng ta c?? th??? khi???n cho c??c l??nh ?????o doanh nghi???p ch???u tr??ch nhi???m gi???i tr??nh hi???u qu??? h??n so v???i c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? do ch??nh ch??ng ta b???u l??n, ch??ng ta n??n lo l???ng cho t????ng lai c???a m??nh ??? v?? kh??ng ch??? ??? n?????c Anh. N???u ??i???u ???? c?? th??? x???y ra ngay t???i ????y, t???i qu?? nh?? c???a Edmund Burke v?? Tony Benn, ??i???u ???? c?? th??? x???y ra ??? b???t k??? n??i n??o kh??c.

Lucy P. Marcus, nh?? s??ng l???p v?? t???ng gi??m ?????c c???a Marcus Venture Consulting Ltd., l?? gi??o s?? ng??nh l??nh ?????o v?? qu???n l?? t???i Tr?????ng Kinh doanh IE v?? l?? th??nh vi??n kh??ng ??i???u h??nh c???a h???i ?????ng qu???n tr??? c??ng ty Atlantia SpA.

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2016 ??? The British Leadership Disease

????????????

[1] N???i c??c b??ng l?? n???i c??c c???a phe ?????i l???p, v???i c??c v??? tr?? b??? tr?????ng t????ng ???ng v???i phe c???m quy???n, nh???m gi??m s??t, ph???n bi???n v?? ????a ra c??c ch????ng tr??nh h??nh ?????ng thay th??? kh??c v???i c??c ch????ng tr??nh c???a ch??nh ph??? c???m quy???n. Th??ng th?????ng khi phe ?????i l???p th???ng c???, c??c v??? tr?? trong n???i c??c b??ng s??? ???????c giao n???m c??c  v??? tr?? ch??nh th???c trong n???i c??c c???m quy???n m???i (NH??)
 

#27 ??? Ngu???n g???c h??nh vi c???a Li??n X??

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Stalin poses ad demagod WW2 Propaganda Poster

Ngu???n: X (George F. Kennan) (1947), ???The Sources of Soviet Conduct???, Foreign Affairs, No. 25 (July), pp. 566-582. >>PDF

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? H???nh | Hi???u ????nh: B??i H???i Thi??m

L???i gi???i thi???u: N??m 1947, m???t b??i vi???t c?? t???a ????? ???Ngu???n g???c h??nh vi c???a Li??n X????? ???????c ????ng tr??n t???p ch?? Foreign Affairs d?????i b??t danh X ???? tr??? th??nh t??m ??i???m c???a d?? lu???n n?????c M???. B??i vi???t ????? c???p nh???ng y???u t??? nh?? c??ch th???c v???n h??nh, n???n t???ng quy???n l???c v?? th??? gi???i quan c???a ch??nh quy???n Li??n X??, ph??n t??ch nh???ng th??ch th???c m?? n?????c n??y ?????t ra cho M??? v?? c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y, ?????ng th???i ????? xu???t c??c gi???i ph??p ???ng ph??. B??i vi???t th???c t??? b???t ngu???n t??? m???t b???c ??i???n m?? George F. Kennan, Ph?? ?????i s??? M??? t???i Matx-c??-va, g???i v??? cho B??? Qu???c ph??ng M??? v??o n??m 1946. B???c ??i???n v?? b??i vi???t c???a Kennan ???????c coi l?? m???t trong nh???ng n???n t???ng quan tr???ng d???n t???i ch??nh s??ch ng??n ch???n c???a M??? ?????i v???i Li??n X??, th??c ?????y s??? ra ?????i c???a cu???c Chi???n tranh L???nh chia r??? hai n?????c n??y c??ng nh?? n???n ch??nh tr??? th??? gi???i trong su???t h??n 40 n??m. ????y c??ng l?? m???t b??i ?????c kinh ??i???n th?????ng ???????c ????a v??o t???p b??i ?????c nh???p m??n chuy??n ng??nh Quan h??? qu???c t??? c???a c??c tr?????ng ?????i h???c tr??n th??? gi???i. Ban Bi??n t???p Nghiencuuquocte.net xin tr??n tr???ng gi???i thi???u v???i b???n ?????c b??i vi???t quan tr???ng n??y.

Ph???m ch???t ch??nh tr??? c???a ch??nh quy???n Li??n X?? m?? ch??ng ta bi???t ng??y nay l?? s???n ph???m k???t h???p c???a t?? t?????ng v?? ho??n c???nh th???c ti???n: h??? t?? t?????ng ???????c c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o X?? Vi???t hi???n t???i k??? th???a t??? chuy???n bi???n l???ch s??? v???i ngu???n g???c t?? t?????ng ch??nh tr???, v?? t??? ho??n c???nh th???c ti???n c???a ch??nh quy???n ???????c r??n d??a trong g???n ba th???p k??? qua ??? Nga. R???t kh?? ????? ti???n h??nh c??c b?????c ph??n t??ch t??m l?? h???c nh???m t??m ra m???i t????ng t??c gi???a hai nh??n t??? tr??n c??ng nh?? vai tr?? t????ng ?????i c???a m???i y???u t??? trong vi???c quy???t ?????nh ???????ng l???i ch??? ?????o ch??nh th???c c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t. M???c d?? v???y, ch??ng ta v???n ph???i c??? g???ng ????? hi???u v?? ng??n ch???n m???t c??ch hi???u qu??? ???????ng l???i ????.

Vi???c t???ng h???p l???i h??? th???ng c??c n???i dung t?? t?????ng m?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Nga ???? v???n d???ng khi n???m ch??nh quy???n l?? v?? c??ng kh?? kh??n. Th??? hi???n trong s??? h??nh th??nh c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n ??? Nga, h??? t?? t?????ng M??c v???n ??ang ph??t tri???n theo h?????ng tinh vi. C??c t??i li???u d???a tr??n n???n t???ng h??? t?? t?????ng n??y r???t ??a d???ng v?? ph???c t???p. Tuy nhi??n, nh???ng ?????c ??i???m n???i b???t c???a  t?? t?????ng c???ng s???n ???????c cho l?? h??nh th??nh n??m 1916 c?? th??? ???????c t??m g???n trong c??c n???i dung sau: (a) y???u t??? trung t??m trong cu???c s???ng c???a nh??n lo???i, nh??n t??? quy???t ?????nh ?????c ??i???m c???a cu???c s???ng c???ng ?????ng v?? ???h??nh th??i x?? h???i??? l?? h??? th???ng n??i h??ng h??a v???t ch???t ???????c s???n xu???t v?? trao ?????i; (b) H??? th???ng s???n xu???t t?? b???n ch??? ngh??a l?? t??n ??c, v?? nh??n ?????o v?? t???t y???u s??? d???n ?????n vi???c giai c???p t?? s???n b??c l???t s???c lao ?????ng c???a giai c???p c??ng nh??n v?? h??? th???ng n??y kh??ng ????? kh??? n??ng ph??t tri???n ?????y ????? c??c ngu???n l???c c???a x?? h???i hay ph??n ph???i c??ng b???ng h??ng h??a v???t ch???t do s???c lao ?????ng c???a con ng?????i t???o ra; (c) ngay trong l??ng ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n ???? ch???a ?????ng m???m m???ng c???a s??? t??? s???p ?????, giai c???p t?? s???n kh??ng th??? t??? ??i???u ch???nh ????? ph?? h???p v???i chuy???n ?????i kinh t???, ch???c ch???n cu???i c??ng s??? d???n ?????n m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng ????a giai c???p c??ng nh??n l??n n???m quy???n; v?? (d) ch??? ngh??a ????? qu???c, giai ??o???n t???t c??ng c???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n s??? tr???c ti???p g??y ra chi???n tranh v?? c??ch m???ng.

Nh???ng ??i???m c??n l???i c?? th??? ???????c n??u trong tr?????c t??c c???a L??-nin: ???S??? ph??t tri???n kh??ng ?????ng ?????u v??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? ch??nh l?? quy lu???t b???t bi???n c???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n. H??? qu??? theo sau ???? ch??nh l?? chi???n th???ng c???a ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i ban ?????u di???n ra t???i ch??nh m???t v??i n?????c t?? b???n ho???c t???i ri??ng m???t n?????c t?? b???n n??o ????. Nh???ng ng?????i v?? s???n chi???n th???ng t???i qu???c gia ???? khi lo???i b??? nh???ng nh?? t?? s???n v?? t??? ch???c n???n s???n xu???t x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a t???i ch??nh qu?? nh?? c?? th??? ?????ng l??n ch???ng l???i th??? gi???i t?? b???n c??n l???i v?? thu h??t c??c c??c giai t???ng b??? ????n ??p ??? nh???ng n?????c kh??c c??ng tham gia??? [xem ch?? th??ch 1]. C???n ph???i ch?? ?? r???ng ch??? c?? c??ch m???ng v?? s???n m???i ????? s???c h??? g???c ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n. C???n ph???i c?? cu???c t???n c??ng cu???i c??ng c???a phong tr??o c??ch m???ng v?? s???n ????? l???t ????? h??? th???ng t?? b???n ??ang lung lay. Ch???c ch???n r???ng cu???c t???n c??ng ???? s??? n??? ra, v???n ????? ch??? l?? s???m hay mu???n.

K??? t??? 50 n??m tr?????c cho t???i khi C??ch m???ng (th??ng M?????i Nga) n??? ra, quan ??i???m t?? t?????ng n??y ???? th???c s??? l??i cu???n c??c th??nh vi??n c???a phong tr??o c??ch m???ng Nga. B??? tr??i bu???c trong c??c gi???i h???n c???a ch??? ????? Nga Sa Ho??ng nh??ng l???i thi???u s??? ???ng h??? r???ng r??i c???a qu???n ch??ng ?????i v???i l???a ch???n m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng c?? ????? m??u l??m ph????ng ti???n ?????t ti???n b??? x?? h???i, nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? c??ch m???ng c???m th???y n???n ch??, b???t m??n, tuy???t v???ng hay kh??ng c?? ????? ki??n nh???n ????? ????? t??m ki???m m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng th?? h??? t??m th???y trong h???c thuy???t M??c-x??t s??? h???p l?? h??a ?????y thu???n l???i cho nh???ng kh??t v???ng t??? nhi??n c???a h???. Ch??nh h???c thuy???t M??c ???? gi??p h??? c?? nh???ng l?? gi???i mang t??nh khoa h???c gi??? hi???u v??? s??? thi???u ki??n ?????nh c???a h???, v??? s??? ph??? ?????nh tuy???t ?????i t???t c??? c??c gi?? tr??? trong ch??? ????? Nga Ho??ng, v??? s??? kh???c kho???i v???i quy???n l???c v?? tr??? th?? v?? v??? xu h?????ng mu???n ??i t???t ????n ?????u c???a h???. Ch??nh v?? h???c thuy???t ????p ???ng ???????c nguy???n v???ng v?? th??i th??c t??nh c???m c???a h??? n??n h??? ???? ??i ?????n ch??? ng???m tin t?????ng v??o ch??n l?? v?? t??nh ????ng ?????n trong c??c gi??o hu???n c???a M??c- L??-nin. Kh??ng c?? g?? ph???i nghi ng??? v??? l??ng trung th??nh c???a h???. ????y l?? l??? t???t y???u nh?? b???n ch???t c???a con ng?????i. Hi???n t?????ng n??y ???? ???????c Edward Gibbon mi??u t??? s???c n??t trong cu???n S??? suy vong v?? s???p ????? c???a ????? ch??? La M?? [The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire]: ???R???t d??? tr?????t b?????c nguy hi???m t??? s??? nhi???t th??nh sang s??? l???a g???t; s??? say m?? h???c ??m c???a Socrates ???? t???o ra m???t v?? d??? ????ng nh??? v??? c??ch m???t ng?????i ????n ??ng kh??n ngoan t??? l???a g???t b???n th??n m??nh, c??ch m???t ng?????i t???t c?? th??? ??i l???a g???t ng?????i kh??c v?? c??ch l????ng t??m c?? th??? b??? ng??? v??i trong tr???ng th??i t??m l?? h???n lo???n, n???a t??? ???o t?????ng n???a mu???n d???i tr??.??? Ch??nh nh???ng nh???n th???c ???? ???? ??i c??ng c??c th??nh vi??n c???a ?????ng B??n-s??-vic khi h??? l??n n???m quy???n.

Nh??ng gi??? c??ng l?? l??c nh???n ra r???ng trong su???t nh???ng n??m chu???n b??? cho c??ch m???ng, nh???ng con ng?????i ????, th???c s??? l?? ngay c??? ch??nh M??c, ???? ch?? ?? v??o vi???c c???n thi???t l???t ????? ch??nh quy???n c???a k??? th??, vi???c ph???i ti???n h??nh tr?????c khi x??y d???ng ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i, h??n l?? quan t??m ?????n h??nh th??i t????ng lai c???a ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i [xem ch?? th??ch 2]. V?? v???y, khi c????ng l??nh ?????t ra ???????c thi h??nh, khi gi??nh ???????c ch??nh quy???n, quan ??i???m c???a h??? v??? c????ng l??nh c???n tri???n khai tr??n th???c t??? sau khi ???? gi??nh ???????c ch??nh quy???n c??n m?? h???, xa v???i v?? kh??ng th???c t???. Ngo??i vi???c qu???c h???u h??a n???n c??ng nghi???p v?? sung c??ng c??c c??? ph???n t?? h???u l???n, kh??ng c?? s??? nh???t tr?? n??o n???a. C??ch ?????i x??? v???i giai c???p n??ng d??n, m?? theo tr??nh b??y c???a ch??? ngh??a M??c kh??ng ph???i l?? giai c???p v?? s???n v???n lu??n l?? m???t ??i???m g??y tranh c??i v?? dao ?????ng trong suy ngh?? trong m?????i n??m ?????u c???a ch??nh quy???n c???ng s???n.

Ho??n c???nh c???a n?????c Nga ngay sau c??ch m???ng, khi n??? ra cu???c n???i chi???n v?? can thi???p c???a n?????c ngo??i, c??ng v???i th???c t??? nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n ch??? ?????i di???n cho m???t ph???n r???t nh??? nh??n d??n Nga ???? khi???n ch??nh quy???n ?????c t??i[1] ra ?????i nh?? m???t nhu c???u thi???t y???u. Vi???c th??? nghi???m ???Ch??? ngh??a C???ng s???n th???i chi???n??? c??ng nh?? v???i v?? c??? g???ng x??a b??? s???n xu???t v?? kinh doanh t?? nh??n ???? kh??ng may g??y ra nh???ng h???u qu??? kinh t??? v?? nh???ng kh?? kh??n sau ???? ch???ng l???i ch??nh quy???n c??ch m???ng m???i. Trong khi t???m th???i gi???m nh??? n??? l???c c???ng s???n h??a n?????c Nga v???i ch??nh s??ch kinh t??? m???i (NEP) ???? gi???m b???t m???t s??? kh?? kh??n kinh t??? v?? ph???c v??? ph???n n??o m???c ????ch tr??n, r?? r??ng l?? ???th??nh ph???n t?? b???n trong x?? h???i??? c??ng ???? chu???n b??? ????? tr???c l???i ngay t??? nh???ng bi???n ph??p gi???m nh??? ??p l???c c???a c???a ch??nh quy???n, v?? do ???? n???u ???????c ph??p ti???p t???c t???n t???i, n?? s??? lu??n l?? nh??n t??? ?????i ?????u m???nh m??? v???i ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t c??ng nh?? c???nh tranh ???nh h?????ng nghi??m tr???ng tr??n to??n n?????c Nga. ??? m???t kh??a c???nh n??o ???? th?? t??nh tr???ng t????ng t??? c??ng x???y ra v???i t???ng ng?????i n??ng d??n, h??? l??m ??n nh??? l??? v?? c??ng b??? coi l?? nh?? s???n xu???t t?? nh??n.

N???u c??n s???ng L??-nin c?? th??? ???? l?? m???t con ng?????i v?? ?????i ????? s???c ??i???u h??a c??c l???c l?????ng m??u thu???n tr??n ????? mang l???i l???i ??ch cu???i c??ng cho x?? h???i Nga, ??i???u n??y t???t nhi??n ch??a th??? kh???ng ?????nh. Nh??ng ngay c??? n???u ??i???u ???? c?? th??? x???y ra, Xta-lin v?? nh???ng ng?????i m?? ??ng l??nh ?????o trong cu???c chi???n ????? n???m quy???n k??? t???c v??? tr?? c???a L??-nin kh??ng khoan nh?????ng tr?????c c??c th??? l???c ch??nh tr??? c???nh tranh trong ph???m vi quy???n l???c m?? h??? mu???n n???m gi???. H??? lu??n c???m th???y b???t an. B???n ng?? cu???ng t??n c???a h??? qu?? kh???c li???t v?? ??ch k???, kh??ng th??? b??? lung l???c b???i b???t c??? truy???n th???ng th???a hi???p n??o c???a ng?????i Anglo-Saxon n??n kh??ng th??? ngh?? ?????n chuy???n ph??n chia quy???n l???c l??u d??i. Xu???t ph??t t??? th??? gi???i quan ng?????i Nga mang ?????m ch???t ?? ????ng, h??? mang theo ho??i nghi v??? kh??? n??ng chung s???ng h??a b??nh v?? l??u d??i gi???a c??c l???c l?????ng c???nh tranh. Do b??? thuy???t ph???c d??? d??ng b???i gi??o ??i???u ???l??? ph???i??? n??n h??? ki??n quy???t ????i khu???t ph???c ho???c tri???t ti??u t???t c??? c??c l???c l?????ng ?????i l???p. Ngo??i ?????ng c???ng s???n ra, x?? h???i Nga kh??ng ???????c ph??p c?? t??? ch???c ch???t ch??? n??o kh??c n???a. Kh??ng ???????c ph??p c?? nh???ng h??nh th???c h??nh ?????ng t???p th??? hay l???p h???i v?????t ra ngo??i khu??n kh??? chi ph???i c???a ?????ng. Kh??ng m???t l???c l?????ng n??o kh??c trong x?? h???i Nga ???????c ph??p c?? s???c s???ng hay c?? t??? ch???c to??n v???n. Ch??? duy nh???t ?????ng l?? c?? t??? ch???c, c??n l???i l?? kh???i qu???n ch??ng nh??n d??n v?? t??? ch???c.

V?? trong n???i b??? c???a ?????ng quy t???c t????ng t??? c??ng ???????c ??p d???ng. ??a s??? c??c ?????ng vi??n ph???i th???c hi???n c??c h??nh th???c nh?? ki???m tra, ????nh gi??, th???o lu???n, b???u c??? v?? v?? h??nh ?????ng nh??ng c??c ho???t ?????ng ???? ???? kh??ng ph???i do ?? ch?? c?? nh??n m???i ?????ng vi??n th??c ?????y m?? do h??i th??? kinh ng???c c???a l??nh ?????o ?????ng v?? s??? hi???n di???n ?????y h??m d???a c???a ???ngh??? quy???t.???

C???n ph???i nh???n m???nh m???t l???n n???a r???ng v??? m???t ch??? quan, nh???ng con ng?????i n??y c???a ?????ng kh??ng v?? l???i ??ch c?? nh??n m?? ?????n v???i th??? ch??? chuy??n ch??? tuy???t ?????i. H??? tin t?????ng ho??n to??n, v?? th???y r???t d??? d??ng tin r???ng h??? bi???t c??i g?? l?? t???t cho x?? h???i v?? h??? c?? th??? l??m ???????c ??i???u t???t ???? m???t khi quy???n l???c c???a h??? ???? ???????c b???o ?????m v?? kh??ng b??? th??ch th???c. Nh??ng khi ??i t??m ??i???m t???a an to??n cho s??? cai tr??? c???a m??nh, h??? ???? kh??ng s???n s??ng ch???p nh???n b???t c??? h???n ch??? n??o ?????i v???i ph????ng ph??p c???a h???, d?? l?? t??? Ch??a tr???i hay con ng?????i. V?? cho ?????n khi c?? th??? ?????t ???????c ??i???m t???a an to??n ????, h??? ???? ?????t h???nh ph??c v?? t??? do c???a nh???ng ai ???? tin t?????ng giao ph?? cho h??? ??? ph??a r???t xa tr??n c??n c??n ??u ti??n c???a m??nh.

Hi???n t???i, ho??n c???nh n???i b???t c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t l?? cho ?????n t???n ng??y h??m nay h??? v???n ch??a th??? ho??n t???t c??ng cu???c c???ng c??? ch??nh tr??? v?? nh???ng con ng?????i trong ??i???n Kremlin v???n ??ang mi???t m??i chi???n ?????u ????? b???o v??? an ninh v?? tuy???t ?????i h??a ch??nh quy???n m?? h??? gi??nh ???????c th??ng 11 n??m 1917. H??? ???? r???t c??? g???ng ????? b???o v??? ch??nh quy???n ch???ng l???i nh???ng th??? l???c trong n?????c, trong ch??nh x?? h???i Li??n X??. Ngo??i ra h??? c??ng ph???i chi???n ?????u ????? ch???ng l???i nh???ng th??? l???c t??? n?????c ngo??i. Nh?? ch??ng ta ???? th???y, h??? t?? t?????ng M??c- L??-nin ???? d???y h??? r???ng th??? gi???i b??n ngo??i kia l?? k??? th?? v?? tr???ng tr??ch cu???i c??ng c???a h??? ch??nh l?? l???t ????? c??c th??? l???c ch??nh tr??? b??n ngo??i bi??n gi???i n?????c Nga. L???ch s??? v?? truy???n th???ng h??ng m???nh c???a ng?????i Nga ???? v????n l??n gi??? h??? trong c???m gi??c ????. Nh??ng cu???i c??ng s??? kh??ng khoan nh?????ng ?????i v???i th??? gi???i b??n ngo??i b???t ?????u g???p ph???i ph???n ???ng. H??? bu???c ph???i s???m d??ng ?????n m???t c???m t??? kh??c c???a Gibbon, ???? l?? ???tr???ng ph???t s??? b???t tu??n??? m?? ch??nh h??? ???? g??y ra. M???i con ng?????i ?????u c?? ?????c quy???n kh??ng th??? b??c b??? ????? ch???ng minh r???ng m??nh ????ng b???ng lu???n ??i???m r???ng th??? gi???i ngo??i kia l?? k??? th?? c???a anh ta (n??n n?? lu??n n??i ta sai). V?? n???u anh ta c??? l???p ??i l???p l???i n?? th?????ng xuy??n v?? bi???n n?? th??nh n???n t???ng cho h??nh vi c???a m??nh th?? r???t cu???c ni???m tin ???? c??ng tr??? th??nh ????ng.

M???t ??i???u hi???n nhi??n l?? trong suy ngh?? c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? c??ng nh?? h??? t?? t?????ng c???a h???, h??? kh??ng h??? nh???n th???y nh???ng l???c l?????ng ?????i l???p c?? ch??t g?? t???t ?????p hay ????ng ?????n. Theo l?? thuy???t th?? s??? ?????i l???p ch??? c?? th??? xu???t ph??t t??? c??c l???c l?????ng th?? ?????ch v?? suy ?????i kh??ng th??? c???i t???o c???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n ??ang gi??y ch???t. Ch???ng n??o c??c t??n d?? c???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n c??n ???????c th???a nh???n ch??nh th???c l?? c??n t???n t???i ??? n?????c Nga, th?? c??n c?? th??? ????? cho nh??n t??? n???i t???i ???? l?? c??i c??? ????? duy tr?? th??? ch??? ?????c t??i ?????i v???i x?? h???i. Nh??ng v?? nh???ng t??n d?? ???? ???? b??? lo???i tr???, t???ng ch??t m???t, l?? l??? bi???n minh tr??n ph???i l??i d???n; v?? khi nh???ng t??n d?? ???? ???????c tuy??n b??? ch??nh th???c l?? ???? b??? b??? di???t tr??? tri???t ?????, th?? l?? l??? tr??n c??ng ph???i bi???n m???t c??ng. V?? th???c t??? n??y ???? t???o ra m???t trong nh???ng th??c b??ch c??n b???n nh???t ?????i v???i ch??? ????? X?? Vi???t: k??? t??? khi ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n kh??ng c??n t???n t???i ??? Nga v?? k??? t??? khi kh??ng th??? kh??ng th???a nh???n s??? ch???ng ?????i gay g???t v?? lan r???ng b???c ph??t t??? qu???n ch??ng t??? do ?????i v???i ??i???n Kremlin, ch??nh quy???n Li??n X?? ????nh ph???i thanh minh cho vi???c duy tr?? ch??? ????? ?????c t??i b???ng c??ch nh???n m???nh v??o hi???m h???a c???a th??? l???c th?? ?????ch t??? ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n ??? n?????c ngo??i.

Vi???c n??y x???y ra t??? s???m. N??m 1924, Xta-lin ???? n??u c??? th??? vi???c b???o v??? duy tr?? ???c??c c?? quan ????n ??p??? ??? t???c l?? qu??n ?????i v?? c???nh s??t m???t tr??n ph????ng ch??m l?? ?????? ????u c?? v??ng v??y c???a t?? b???n, n??i ???? c?? nguy c?? can thi???p g??y h???u qu??? x???u???. C??ng v???i l?? lu???n tr??n, t??? ???? tr??? ??i m???i th??? l???c ch???ng ?????i ??? trong n?????c Nga ?????u b??? coi nh?? l?? tay sai c???a c??c th??? l???c ngo???i bang th?? ?????ch v???i ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t.

Bi???u hi???n t????ng t??? ???? l?? lu???n ????? g???c r??? c???a ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n nh???n m???nh ?????n s??? ?????i kh??ng c??n b???n gi???a th??? gi???i t?? b???n ch??? ngh??a v?? x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a. Nh??ng r?? r??ng qua c??c bi???u hi???n th?? ??i???m nh???n n??y kh??ng c?? th???c. Nh???ng d??? ki???n th???c t??? li??n quan ???? b??? l??m r???i tung l??n b???i s??? t???n t???i c???a nh???ng o??n h???n th???c s??? t??? b??n ngo??i do ch??nh t?? t?????ng v?? th??? ??o???n c???a ch??nh quy???n Li??n X?? g??y ra v?? s??? t???n t???i c???a c??c trung t??m s???c m???nh qu??n s??? kh???ng l??? c???a ch??? ????? Ph??t x??t ??? ?????c v?? Ch??nh ph??? Nh???t B???n cu???i nh???ng n??m 1930 khi m?? c??? hai tr??n th???c t??? ???? c?? ?? ????? g??y h???n ch???ng l???i Li??n X??. Nh??ng c?? nhi???u ch???ng c??? cho th???y ??i???m nh???n c???a M??t-xc??-va v??? m???i ??e d???a t??? b??n ngo??i ?????i v???i x?? h???i c???a Li??n X?? kh??ng xu???t ph??t t??? th???c t??? th?? ?????ch c???a n?????c ngo??i m?? t??? nhu c???u c???n thi???t ph???i bi???n minh cho vi???c duy tr?? n???n ?????c t??i ??? trong n?????c.

Hi???n t???i s??? duy tr?? c???a n???n ?????c t??i trong ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t c??? th??? ch??nh l?? vi???c ti???p t???c theo ??u???i quy???n l???c v?? h???n trong n?????c song h??nh c??ng s??? tuy??n truy???n huy???n ho???c v??? th??i ????? th?? ?????ch gh?? g???m c???a n?????c ngo??i ???? ??i qu?? xa v?? t???o n??n b??? m??y ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t m?? ch??ng ta hi???n th???y. C??c c?? quan qu???n l?? trong n?????c v?? kh??ng ph???c v??? m???c ????ch ???? ???? d???n t??n l???i. Trong khi ???? c?? quan n??o theo ??u???i m???c ????ch n??y l???i ph??nh ra m???nh m???. An ninh c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t ??i ?????n ph???i d???a tr??n nguy??n t???c s???t ???? c???a ?????ng, tr??n s??? kh???c nghi???t v?? c?? m???t kh???p m???i n??i c???a c???nh s??t m???t, v?? tr??n s??? ?????c quy???n kinh t??? kh??ng th???a hi???p c???a nh?? n?????c. C??c ???c?? quan ????n ??p???, c??ng c??? ????? l??nh ?????o Li??n X?? ?????m b???o an ninh tr?????c c??c th??? l???c c???nh tranh, l???i tr??? th??nh ??ng ch??? c???a nh???ng ng?????i d??n m?? v???n d?? ch??ng ???????c thi???t k??? ra ????? ph???c v???. Hi???n nay b??? ph???n ch??nh trong b??? m??y ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t v???n t???n t??m ????? ho??n thi???n n???n chuy??n ch??nh v?? gi??? v???ng nh???n th???c r???ng n?????c Nga v???n ??ang b??? v??y h??m v?? b??? k??? th?? ??e d???a. V?? h??ng tri???u con ng?????i trong b??? m??y ???? ph???i d??ng b???t c??? gi?? n??o ????? b???o v??? cho nh???n th???c tr??n, v?? n???u kh??ng h??? s??? tr??? n??n v?? d???ng.

Nh?? nh???ng g?? hi???n nay cho th???y, nh???ng ng?????i c???m quy???n kh??ng c??n ngh?? v??? vi???c t??? b??? nh???ng c?? quan ????n ??p ????. Nhu c???u v??? m???t ch??nh quy???n chuy??n ch??nh, c??i m?? n?????c Nga ???? theo ??u???i g???n ba th???p k??? li??n ti???p v???i m???c ????? t??n b???o v?? song (??t nh???t l?? v??? quy m??) trong th???i hi???n ?????i ???? t??? ra ph???n t??c d???ng ngay trong l??ng n?????c Nga nh?? n?? ???? x???y ra ??? n?????c ngo??i. H??? th???ng c???nh s??t d?? th???a qu?? m???c ???? th???i b??ng s??? ?????i l???p ti???m t??ng ?????i v???i ch??? ????? th??nh m???t th??? g?? ???? to l???n v?? nguy hi???m h??n tr?????c ????y.

Nh??ng nh???t l?? nh???ng ng?????i c???m quy???n kh??ng th??? t??? b??? vi???n t?????ng r???ng vi???c duy tr?? n???n chuy??n ch??nh c???a m??nh ???? ???????c b???o v??? v???ng ch???c. B???i l??? vi???n t?????ng ???? ???? ???????c ????a l??n ????i vinh quang trong t?? duy c???a Li??n X?? b???i nh???ng ??i???u th??i qu?? ???????c th???c hi???n v???i danh ngh??a c???a n??; v?? hi???n t???i th?? n?? ???? ???????c neo v??o suy ngh?? c???a b??? m??y X?? Vi???t b???ng nh???ng s???i d??y r??ng bu???c ch???t ch??? h??n nhi???u so v???i h??? t?? t?????ng ????n thu???n c?? th??? c??.

II.

Nh?? v???y l?? ???? ????? ????? n??i v??? ho??n c???nh l???ch s???. Th??? c??n ph???m ch???t ch??nh tr??? c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t m?? ch??ng ta bi???t hi???n nay ???????c th??? hi???n ra nh?? th??? n??o?

Kh??ng m???t th??? g?? trong h??? t?? t?????ng nguy??n kh???i b??? ch??nh th???c v???t b??? v??o s???t r??c c???. Ng?????i ta duy tr?? ni???m tin r???ng ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n v??? c?? b???n l?? x???u xa, s??? ti??u vong c???a n?? l?? kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i v?? giai c???p v?? s???n c?? nhi???m v??? h??? tr??? s??? ti??u vong ???? v?? ?????ng l??n n???m quy???n. Tuy nhi??n, ng?????i ta l???i nh???n m???nh ch??? y???u v??o nh???ng n???i dung li??n quan c??? th??? nh???t ?????n ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t: v??? v??? tr?? c???a n?? l?? ch??nh quy???n x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a ch??n ch??nh duy nh???t trong th??? gi???i t??m t???i, l???c h?????ng v?? v??? c??c m???i li??n h??? quy???n l???c trong n??.

N???i dung ?????u ti??n trong ???? l?? s??? ?????i ?????u ??????ng nhi??n gi???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n v?? ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i. Th???c t??? ch??ng ta th???y n???i dung n??y ???? ???????c l???p tr??nh s???n trong n???n t???ng c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t. N?? c?? ???nh h?????ng s??u r???ng ?????n h??nh vi c???a Nga trong giao thi???p qu???c t???. ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? v??? ph??a M??t-xc??-va kh??ng bao gi??? c?? vi???c th??nh th???c ch???p nh???n m???c ti??u chung gi???a Li??n X?? v?? c??c ch??nh quy???n ???????c coi l?? t?? b???n. C?? m???t nh???n ?????nh b???t bi???n ??? M??t-xc??-va l?? m???c ti??u c???a ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n lu??n ??i ng?????c l???i ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t, v?? v???y n?? ??i ng?????c l???i l???i ??ch c???a qu???n ch??ng nh??n d??n. N???u ch??nh ph??? Li??n X?? c?? ????i khi k?? k???t c??c v??n ki???n tr??i ng?????c v???i nh???n th???c n??y th?? ??i???u ???? ???????c xem nh?? m???t b?????c ??i chi???n thu???t ????? th????ng l?????ng v???i k??? th?? (k??? kh??ng c?? danh d???) v?? n??n ???????c xem x??t m???t c??ch th???n tr???ng. V??? c?? b???n, s??? ?????i kh??ng v???n c??n ????. Ng?????i ta cho l?? nh?? v???y. Vi???c n??y k??o theo r???t nhi???u hi???n t?????ng m?? ch??ng ta th???y phi???n ph???c trong vi???c ti???n h??nh ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a ??i???n Kremlin: s??? b??ng b??t, thi???u th???ng th???n, hai m???t kh?? ??o??n, s??? nghi ng??? c???nh gi??c v?? m???c ????ch kh??ng thi???n ch?? ch??t n??o. Nh???ng hi???n t?????ng ???? v???n t???n t???i, trong t????ng lai g???n. Nh???ng hi???n t?????ng ???? bi???n h??a ??? r???t nhi???u m???c ????? v?? c?????ng ?????. Khi ng?????i Nga mu???n m???t th??? g?? ???? t??? ch??ng ta, h??? s??? t???m gi???u ??i m???t hay c??c ?????c tr??ng ???? ra sau l??ng, v?? l??c ???? s??? c?? nh???ng ng?????i M??? ????a ra l???i ph??t bi???u ?????y vui s?????ng r???ng: ???ng?????i Nga ???? thay ?????i???, v?? m???t s??? ng?????i th???m ch?? c??? g???ng nh???n v?? l???y th??nh t??ch ???? ??em l???i ???nh???ng thay ?????i??? ????. Nh??ng ch??ng ta kh??ng n??n b??? ????nh l???c h?????ng b???i chi??u tr?? ????. Nh???ng ?????c t??nh ???? c???a ch??nh s??ch X?? Vi???t, gi???ng nh?? ?????nh ????? m?? h??? xu???t ph??t, ph?? h???p v???i b???n ch???t b??n trong c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t v?? ch??ng s??? lu??n ??? quanh ch??ng ta, d?? l?? tr?????c m???t hay sau l??ng cho ?????n khi b???n ch???t n???i t???i c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t b??? thay ?????i.

??i???u n??y ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c ch??ng ta s??? ti???p t???c kh?? th????ng l?????ng v???i Nga trong m???t th???i gian d??i n???a. ??i???u n??y kh??ng c?? ngh??a r???ng ch??ng ta coi h??? ??ang ti???n h??nh m???t ???????ng l???i s???ng m??i ????? l???t ????? x?? h???i c???a ch??ng ta v??o m???t ng??y ???? ?????nh. May m???n thay, l?? thuy???t v??? vi???c ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n cu???i c??ng s??? ch???c ch???n s???p ????? c?? ngh??a l?? kh??ng ph???i v???i v??ng v??? vi???c ????. C??c l???c l?????ng ti???n b??? c?? ????? th???i gian ????? chu???n b??? cho pha k???t li???u cu???i c??ng. Trong l??c ????, ??i???u h??? tr???ng l?? ???T??? qu???c x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a???- n??i ???c ?????o quy???n l???c m?? ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i ???? gi??nh ???????c d?????i h??nh h??i c???a Li??n X?? ??? c???n ???????c n??ng niu v?? b???o v??? b???i t???t c??? nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n ch??n ch??nh ??? trong v?? ngo??i n?????c, v???n may (c???a Li??n X??) l???i gia t??ng, k??? th?? b??? d???n v??o th??? kh?? v?? b??? ????nh b???i. Vi???c th??c ?????y v???i v??ng c??c d??? ??n c??ch m???ng mang t??nh ???phi??u l??u???, ch??a ch??n mu???i ??? n?????c ngo??i c?? th??? l??m cho ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t l??ng t??ng v?? b???t k??? th??? n??o c??ng l?? h??nh ?????ng kh??ng th??? tha th???, th???m ch?? ph???n c??ch m???ng. S??? nghi???p c???a ch??? ngh??a x?? h???i l?? s??? ???ng h??? v?? th??c ?????y quy???n l???c c???a Li??n X??, theo c??ch hi???u c???a M??t-xc??-va.

??i???u n??y mang t???i cho ch??ng ta n???i dung quan tr???ng th??? hai trong quan ??i???m ??????ng th???i c???a X?? Vi???t. ???? l?? ??i???n Kremlin kh??ng bao gi??? sai l???m. Quan ??i???m c???a ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t v??? quy???n l???c l?? kh??ng cho ph??p t??m ??i???m c???a t??? ch???c n??o ho???t ?????ng ngo??i ph???m vi c???a ?????ng v?? y??u c???u tin t?????ng r???ng s??? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????ng l?? n??i duy nh???t mang l???i ch??n l??, v??? l?? thuy???t l?? v???y. B???i v?? n???u s??? th???t c??n ???????c t??m th???y ??? n??i n??o kh??c n???a th?? c?? ngh??a l?? n?? s??? th??? hi???n ra b???ng ho???t ?????ng c?? t??? ch???c. Nh??ng ho???t ?????ng c?? t??? ch???c ch??nh l?? c??i m?? Kremlin kh??ng th??? v?? s??? kh??ng cho ph??p.

V?? v???y, s??? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????ng c???ng s???n l?? lu??n lu??n ????ng, v?? ???? lu??n ????ng k??? t??? n??m 1929 khi m?? Xta-lin ch??nh th???c h??a quy???n l???c c?? nh??n b???ng tuy??n b??? r???ng c??c quy???t ?????nh c???a b??? ch??nh tr??? ?????u ???????c ?????ng thu???n.

Nguy??n t???c kh??ng bao gi??? sai l???m l?? n???n t???ng c???a k??? lu???t s???t ???? c???a ?????ng c???ng s???n. Th???c t??? th?? hai n???i dung n??y h??? tr??? cho nhau. K??? lu???t ho??n h???o ????i h???i s??? th???a nh???n c???a nguy??n t???c kh??ng bao gi??? sai l???m. Kh??ng bao gi??? sai l???m ????i h???i tu??n th??? k??? lu???n tuy???t ?????i. V?? c??? hai c??ng nhau quy???t ?????nh ?????n h??nh vi c???a c??? b??? m??y ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t. Nh??ng ch??ng ta s??? kh??ng th??? hi???u ???????c h??? qu??? c???a hai ??i???u n??y n???u kh??ng x??t ?????n nh??n t??? th??? ba: c??? th??? l??, gi???i l??nh ?????o t??? do ?????t ra b???t k??? m???t lu???n ??i???m n??o cho c??c m???c ????ch chi???n thu???t m?? h??? th???y h???u d???ng cho s??? nghi???p c??ch m???ng, t???i b???t k??? th???i ??i???m c??? th??? n??o v?? ????i h???i s??? ch???p nh???n m???t c??ch trung th??nh v?? kh??ng ???????c ph??p nghi ng??? c???a c??c th??nh vi??n trong to??n th??? phong tr??o. ??i???u n??y c?? ngh??a l?? s??? th???t kh??ng ph???i l?? c??i g?? b???t bi???n m?? th???c s??? l?? ???????c ch??nh c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o X?? Vi???t t???o ra v?? t???t c??? c??c ?? ?????nh v?? m???c ????ch k??? tr??n. S??? th???t ???? c?? th??? thay ?????i t??? tu???n n??y sang tu???n kh??c, t??? th??ng n??y sang th??ng kh??c. Kh??ng c?? g?? l?? tuy???t ?????i v?? b???t bi???n ??? kh??ng c?? g?? xu???t ph??t t??? th???c t??? kh??ch quan. Ch??n l?? ch??? c?? th??? ph??t ra t??? bi???u hi???n g???n nh???t c???a minh tri???t ??? nh???ng ng?????i ???????c cho l?? c?? tr?? tu??? t???t ?????nh, v?? h??? th??? hi???n quy lu???t logic c???a l???ch s???. T??c ?????ng t??ch t??? c???a c??c nh??n t??? n??y l?? nh???m mang l???i ni???m tin ki??n ?????nh, kh??ng th??? lay chuy???n ???????c cho t???t c??? c??c c?? quan, b??? m??y b??n d?????i ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t v??o ph????ng h?????ng c???a ch??nh quy???n. Ph????ng h?????ng n??y c?? th??? thay ?????i b???i ?? mu???n c???a ??i???n Kremlin ch??? kh??ng ph???i ai kh??c. M???t khi ???? c?? ???????ng l???i c???a ?????ng ?????i v???i m???t v???n ????? c??? th??? c???a ch??nh s??ch hi???n t???i, t???t c??? b??? m??y ch??nh quy???n X?? Vi???t, g???m c??? c?? ch??? ngo???i giao ph???i chuy???n ?????ng theo con ???????ng b???t bu???c gi???ng nh?? m???t m??n ?? t?? ????? ch??i ???????c l???p tr??nh v?? ch???y theo h?????ng ???????c c??i s???n, ch??? d???ng khi g???p l???c c???n kh??ng th??? ch???ng l???i ???????c. C??c c?? nh??n l?? b??? ph???n trong b??? m??y ???? kh??ng ???????c c??i l?? hay tranh lu???n d???a tr??n c??c ngu???n th??ng tin t??? b??n ngo??i. Qu?? tr??nh t??i luy???n ???? d???y h??? ph???i nghi ng??? v?? coi th?????ng nh???ng l?? l??? thuy???t ph???c tr??n tru t??? th??? gi???i b??n ngo??i. Gi???ng nh?? con ch?? tr???ng trong tr?? quay ????a, n?? ch??? nghe ???ti???ng n??i c???a ch??? nh??n???. V?? n???u ph???i y??u c???u h??? d???ng ti???n h??nh m???nh l???nh n??o tr?????c ???? th?? ch??? c?? ch??? nh??n m???i l??m ???????c. V?? v???y, ?????i di???n ngo???i qu???c kh??ng th??? hy v???ng r???ng anh ta c?? th??? g??y ???n t?????ng v???i h??? b???ng l???i n??i. ??i???u t???t nh???t anh ta c?? th??? hy v???ng l?? nh???ng l???i l??? ???? c?? th??? ???????c truy???n ?????n tai c???a nh???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o cao nh???t, nh???ng ng?????i c?? th??? thay ?????i ???????ng l???i c???a ?????ng. Nh??ng ngay c??? th??? th?? h??? c??ng kh??ng d??? b??? thuy???t ph???c b???i b???t c??? l?? l??? logic n??o c???a ?????i di???n giai c???p t?? s???n. B???i l??? ch???ng c?? ??i???m g?? chung v??? m???c ????ch th?? c??ng ch???ng th??? c?? ??i???m g?? chung v??? c??ch ti???p c???n ???????c. V?? l?? do n??y, th???c t??? lu??n c?? tr???ng l?????ng h??n l???i n??i khi ??i ?????n tai c???a l??nh ?????o Kremlin, v?? l???i n??i c?? tr???ng l?????ng nh???t khi ch??ng c?? ??m thanh ph???n ??nh ho???c ???????c h??? tr??? b???i nh???ng th???c t??? kh??ng th??? ch???i c??i.

Nh??ng ch??ng ta c??ng ph???i th???y r???ng ??i???n Kremlin kh??ng b??? th??c ??p n??o v??? t?? t?????ng ????? ph???i v???i v?? ho??n th??nh c??c m???c ti??u. Gi???ng nh?? Gi??o h???i, Kremlin ph???i x??? l?? c??c n???i dung t?? t?????ng mang gi?? tr??? l??u d??i v?? n?? c?? th??? c?? ????? ki??n nh???n. Kremlin kh??ng c?? quy???n g??y nguy hi???m ?????n c??c th??nh qu??? c??ch m???ng hi???n c?? v?? c??c th??? h??o huy???n c???a t????ng lai. L???i d???y c???a ch??nh L??-nin ????i h???i ph???i th???n tr???ng v?? linh ho???t khi theo ??u???i c??c m???c ti??u c???ng s???n. M???t l???n n???a, nh???ng l???i gi??o hu???n n??y ???????c kh???ng ?????nh v???ng ch???c b???i b??i h???c l???ch s??? c???a n?????c Nga: c???a h??ng th??? k??? chi???n tranh m??? m???t gi???a c??c l???c l?????ng du c?? tr??n nh???ng d???i ?????ng b???ng r???ng l???n kh??ng ph??ng ng???. ??? ????y, s??? ph??ng ng???a, l?????ng tr?????c, linh ?????ng v?? m??u m???o l?? nh???ng ph???m ch???t qu?? gi??, t??m l?? c???a ng?????i Nga hay ng?????i ph????ng ????ng t??? nhi??n ???? coi tr???ng nh???ng gi?? tr??? ????. V?? th??? ??i???n Kremlin kh??ng l???y g?? l??m t???i l???i khi ph???i l??i b?????c tr?????c th??? l???c m???nh h??n. V?? do kh??ng ph???i ch???u ??p l???c v??? th???i gian, Kremlin kh??ng hoang mang s??? h??i khi th???y c???n ph???i r??t lui. ?????ng th??i ch??nh tr??? c???a n?? nh?? m???t d??ng ch???y di ?????ng, c?? th??? chuy???n ?????ng li??n t???c ngay khi c?? s??? cho ph??p, v?? lu??n h?????ng v??? m???t m???c ti??u ???? ?????nh. M???i lo ng???i ch??nh c???a n?? l?? l??m sao ????? ch???c ch???n l???p ?????y m???i ng?? ng??ch, v???t n???t ??ang c?? trong l??ng ch???o quy???n l???c c???a th??? gi???i. Nh??ng n???u g???p ph???i r??o c???n kh??ng th??? ????nh b???i tr??n ???????ng ??i, n?? s??? b??nh th???n ch???p nh???n v?? t??? ??i???u ch???nh b???n th??n cho ph?? h???p. V???n ????? ch??nh l?? ph???i lu??n c?? ??p l???c, ??p l???c li??n ti???p kh??ng ng???ng tr?????c nh???ng m???c ti??u m?? h??? mong mu???n. Kh??ng t???n t???i b???t c??? d???u v???t c???m gi??c n??o trong t??m l?? c???a Li??n X?? r???ng h??? ph???i ?????t ???????c m???c ti??u c??? th??? v??o m???t th???i ??i???m nh???t ?????nh n??o ????.

Ch??nh nh???ng s??? suy x??t tr??n ???? khi???n vi???c ???ng x??? v???i ngo???i giao c???a Li??n X?? v???a d??? d??ng h??n l???i v???a kh?? kh??n h??n so v???i ngo???i giao c???a c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o hi???u chi???n nh?? Napoleon hay Hitler. M???t m???t, ngo???i giao Li??n X?? nh???y c???m h??n v???i c??c th??? l???c ?????i kh??ng, s???n s??ng nh?????ng b??? v??? c??c l??nh v???c ri??ng l??? tr??n m???t tr???n ngo???i giao khi nh???n th???y th??? l???c ???? qu?? m???nh, v?? v???y m?? n?? duy l?? h??n v??? l??-gic v?? l???i l??? c???a ch??nh quy???n. M???t kh??c, kh??ng d??? g?? ????nh b???i hay l??m nh???t ch?? ???????c Li??n X?? ch??? b???i m???t chi???n th???ng ????n l??? c???a ?????i th???. S???c s???ng ki??n tr??, b???n b??? c???a n?? ch???ng t??? n?? kh??ng th??? b??? ????nh b???i ch??? b???i c??c h??nh ?????ng r???i r???c ?????i di???n cho quan ??i???m d??n ch??? nh???t th???i m?? ch??? c?? th??? b???i ch??nh s??ch kh??n ngoan d??i h???n c???a c??c k??? th?? v???i n?????c Nga ??? nh???ng ch??nh s??ch ???? ph???i ki??n ?????nh kh??ng k??m trong m???c ????ch, ??a d???ng v?? kh??n ngoan kh??ng k??m trong ??p d???ng so v???i c??c ch??nh s??ch c???a Li??n X??.

Trong c??c t??nh hu???ng tr??n, r?? r??ng th??nh t??? ch??nh trong ch??nh s??ch c???a M??? v???i Li??n X?? ph???i l?? d??i h???n, ki??n tr?? nh??ng ch???c ch???n v?? c???nh gi??c trong ng??n ch???n khuynh h?????ng b??nh tr?????ng c???a Nga. M???c d?? v???y, ch??ng ta c???n l??u ?? r???ng ch??nh s??ch n??y kh??ng li??n quan g?? ?????n nh???ng h??nh vi di???n k???ch ph??ng ?????i b??? ngo??i, v???i nh???ng ??e d???a ho???c l???n ti???ng su??ng ho???c nh???ng c??? ch??? h???i h???t ????? th??? hi???n ???c???ng r???n??? b??? ngo??i. Trong khi ??i???n Kremlin v??? c?? b???n v???n linh ho???t trong ph???n ???ng tr?????c c??c th???c t??? ch??nh tr???, h??? kh??ng th??? b??? qua nh???ng c??n nh???c v??? uy t??n. Gi???ng nh?? h???u h???t c??c ch??nh ph??? kh??c, c??c c??? ch??? ???? c?? th??? tr??? th??nh kh??ng l???ch thi???p v?? ?????y ??e d???a khi h??? kh??ng th??? nh??n nh?????ng d?? l??c ???? l?? tr?? v??? hi???n th???c v???n ??ang ??i???u khi???n. C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Nga lu??n am hi???u t??m l?? con ng?????i, v?? v?? v???y h??? nh???n th???c cao ????? r???ng m???t b??nh t??nh v?? m???t ki???m so??t b???n th??n kh??ng bao gi??? c?? l???i khi trong l??nh v???c ch??nh tr???. H??? nhanh nh???y trong vi???c l???i d???ng nh???ng ??i???m y???u. V?? nh???ng nguy??n nh??n tr??n, ??i???u ki???n c???n ????? bang giao th??nh c??ng v???i Nga l?? ch??nh ph??? n?????c ngo??i ph???i lu??n t???nh t??o v?? t???p trung, v?? nh???ng y??u c???u ?????i v???i ch??nh s??ch c???a Nga ph???i ???????c ????a ra theo c??ch ????? ng??? cho s??? tu??n th??? kh??ng qu?? g??y h???i ?????n uy t??n c???a Nga.

III.
IV.

Xem to??n b??? n???i dung v??n b???n t???i ????y: Nguon goc hanh vi cua Lien Xo.pdf


[1] Trong ng??n ng??? c???a c??c n?????c x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a, ????y l?? n???n chuy??n ch??nh v?? s???n (Ch?? th??ch c???a ng?????i hi???u ????nh).

 

 

Bạn đã không sử dụng Site, Bấm vào đây để duy trì trạng thái đăng nhập. Thời gian chờ: 60 giây