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Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n

Tuy???n ???????ng s???t t????ng lai c?? h??n 400 km c???t ngang qua c??c khu r???ng nhi???t ?????i c???a L??o. Nh???ng con t??u s??? s???m l??n b??nh ??? qua nh???ng c??y c???u, nh???ng ???????ng h???m v?? nh???ng con ?????p ???????c x??y d???ng ri??ng cho tuy???n ???????ng s???t, ch???y t??? bi??n gi???i ph??a B???c c???a Trung Qu???c cho ?????n th??? ???? Vi??ng Ch??n c???a L??o b??n b??? s??ng Mekong n??y.
Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n
Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n


Gi???i thi???u: Tr???n Quang
Tuy???n ???????ng s???t t????ng lai c?? h??n 400 km c???t ngang qua c??c khu r???ng nhi???t ?????i c???a L??o. Nh???ng con t??u s??? s???m l??n b??nh ??? qua nh???ng c??y c???u, nh???ng ???????ng h???m v?? nh???ng con ?????p ???????c x??y d???ng ri??ng cho tuy???n ???????ng s???t, ch???y t??? bi??n gi???i ph??a B???c c???a Trung Qu???c cho ?????n th??? ???? Vi??ng Ch??n c???a L??o b??n b??? s??ng Mekong n??y.
Sau 5 n??m x??y d???ng, tuy???n ???????ng s???t d??? ki???n s??? ??i v??o ho???t ?????ng v??o n??m 2021. Tr?????ng b??? ph???n ph??a Trung Qu???c ch???c ch???n r???ng n?? s??? ???????c ho??n th??nh ????ng h???n. ??ng n??i: ???Ri??ng v??n ph??ng c???a ch??ng t??i tuy???n 4.000 c??ng nh??n???. Ng??n s??ch c??ng kh??ng thi???u: Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? d??nh kho???ng 6 t??? USD cho d??? ??n n??y v?? g???n ????y ???? tr??? th??nh ch??? n??? l???n nh???t c??ng nh?? nh?? cung c???p vi???n tr??? ph??t tri???n quan tr???ng nh???t c???a L??o.
X??t cho c??ng, Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? tr???c ti???p t??i tr??? 70% tuy???n ???????ng s???t m???i, m?? h??? c??n ??ang x??y d???ng c??c con ?????p, tr?????ng h???c, b???nh vi???n qu??n y v?? th???m ch?? c??n gi??p L??o ph??ng m???t v??? tinh li??n l???c v??o kh??ng gian. Th??ng 4/2019, Trung Qu???c ???? cho L??o vay th??m 40 tri???u USD ????? x??y d???ng ???????ng b??? ??? m???t kho???n t??n d???ng ???????c c???p th??ng qua Ng??n h??ng ?????u t?? c?? s??? h??? t???ng ch??u ?? (AIIB) c?? tr??? s??? t???i B???c Kinh, m???t th??? ch??? t??i ch??nh m?? Trung Qu???c th??nh l???p ????? thay th??? cho c??c ng??n h??ng ph??t tri???n c???a ph????ng T??y.
N???u t??nh c??? Hong Kong, th?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? l?? ch??? n??? l???n nh???t c???a L??o m?? c???a c??? th??? gi???i. C??c kho???n B???c Kinh cho n?????c ngo??i vay chi???m l??nh c??c th??? tr?????ng to??n c???u ??? m???c g???n nh?? ngang v???i ????? ch??i, ??i???n tho???i th??ng minh v?? xe m??y ??i???n. T??? Kenya t???i Montenegro, t??? Ecuador ?????n Djibouti, ???????ng s??, c??c con ?????p v?? nh?? m??y ??i???n ??ang ???????c x??y d???ng v???i nh???ng kho???n vay tr??? gi?? h??ng t??? USD t??? B???c Kinh. V?? t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia n??y s??? ph???i tr??? n??? c??ng v???i l??i su???t trong nhi???u n??m t???i.
C??n l?? v???n t??? Trung Qu???c gi??p ng??n n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u r??i v??o t??nh tr???ng ????nh tr??? sau v??? ph?? s???n c???a Lehman Brothers v?? cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh di???n ra sau ????. Nh??ng ??i???u n??y kh??ng ph???i l?? kh??ng g??y tranh c??i.
?????i v???i nhi???u n?????c, h??ng t??? USD t??? Trung Qu???c l?? m???t ????ng g??p ????ng hoan ngh??nh nh???m gi??p nhi???u khu v???c k??m ph??t tri???n ??? ch??u ?? v?? ch??u Phi m??? r???ng c?? s??? h??? t???ng. ?????i v???i c??c n?????c kh??c, nh???ng kho???n vay t??? B???c Kinh ???? khi???n m???t n???a th??? gi???i ph???i ph??? thu???c v??o B???c Kinh v??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr???. M???t s??? ng?????i ???? m?? t??? t??nh hu???ng n??y l?? ???s??? l??? thu???c v?? n??????, trong khi ???? m???t nh??m th?????ng ngh??? s?? M??? ???? vi???t m???t l?? th?? g???i Ngo???i tr?????ng Mike Pompeo v??o m??a H?? n??m 2018 ????? c???nh b??o v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c ??ang ???n??? l???c bi???n v???n th??nh v?? kh?????.
Thi???u s??? minh b???ch
H??n n???a, g???n nh?? kh??ng c?? m???y th??ng tin v??? c??c kho???n vay n??y. T??i s???n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i hi???n tr??? gi?? 6.000 t??? USD, nh??ng ngo??i ch??nh ph??? ??? B???c Kinh, kh??ng ai bi???t g?? nhi???u v??? vi???c s??? ti???n ???? s??? ???????c ?????u t?? v??o ????u v?? ??i k??m nh???ng ??i???u ki???n v?? r???i ro g??. T???ng gi??m ?????c Qu??? ti???n t??? qu???c t??? (IMF) Christine Lagarde cho bi???t v?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng cung c???p to??n b??? s??? s??ch k??? to??n cho c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t??? nh?? Ng??n h??ng th??? gi???i v?? IMF, n??n c??c kho???n vay n??y thi???u s??? minh b???ch c???n thi???t.
Tuy nhi??n gi??? ????y, v???i vi???c m???t nghi??n c???u do nh??m h???c gi??? ?????c v?? M??? d?????i s??? d???n d???t c???a Gi??o s?? ?????i h???c Harvard Carmen Reinhart m???i ???????c c??ng b???, Largarde s??? c?? m???t b???c tranh r?? r??ng h??n. Trong nhi???u th??ng qua, c??c nh?? kinh t??? h???c ???? ????o x???i c??c ngu???n t?? li???u x??c th???c c??ng nh?? ch??a x??c th???c, t???ng h???p nh???ng ph??n t??ch to??n di???n nh???t v??? c??c kho???n Trung Qu???c cho n?????c ngo??i vay. V?? h??nh ???nh thu ???????c kh??ng th??? l??m gi???m b???t nh???ng lo ng???i v??? s???c m???nh t??i ch??nh c???a B???c Kinh.
Ng?????c l???i, d??? li???u n??y cho th???y nhi???u qu???c gia ??? c??c khu v???c ngh??o h??n tr??n th??? gi???i ???? ti???p nh???n c??c kho???n t??n d???ng t??? Trung Qu???c nhi???u h??n h???n so v???i tr?????c ????y. V?? c??c kho???n cho vay th?????ng ??i k??m v???i nh???ng ??i???u ki???n nghi??m ng???t ho??n to??n h?????ng ?????n c??c l???i ??ch chi???n l?????c c???a B???c Kinh v?? l??m t??ng nguy c?? ?????y nhi???u qu???c gia ??ang ph??t tri???n v??o m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh. Christoph Trebesch, ?????ng t??c gi??? c???a nghi??n c???u ?????n t??? Vi???n nghi??n c???u kinh t??? th??? gi???i t???i Kiel, cho bi???t: ???Ph????ng T??y v???n ch??a hi???u s??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ???? thay ?????i h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh qu???c t??? s??u s???c ?????n m???c n??o???.
Ng???i trong m???t th?? vi???n ??? Hamburg, Trebesch l?????t qua h??ng tr??m d??ng d??? li???u tr??n m??y t??nh x??ch tay c???a ??ng: th???i h???n cho vay, l??i su???t, m???c ????ch v?? t??i s???n th??? ch???p c???a g???n 5.000 kho???n cho vay v?? thanh to??n vi???n tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i 152 qu???c gia. Th??ng tin n??y ?????n t??? g???n ch???c c?? s??? d??? li???u ???????c bi??n so???n v???i s??? gi??p ????? c???a c??c t??? ch???c vi???n tr???, c??c ng??n h??ng v?? C?? quan t??nh b??o trung ????ng M??? (CIA).
Trebesch m?? t??? quy tr??nh bi??n so???n th??ng tin n??y l?? ???m???t d???ng kh???o c??? kinh t??????. Qu?? tr??nh n??y ????i h???i ??ng v?? ng?????i ?????ng nghi???p Sebastian Horn ph???i ph??n t??ch d??? li???u v?? sau ???? so s??nh v???i c??c ngu???n ch??nh th???c ????? ????a ra m???t b???c tranh to??n c???nh v??? c??c t??i s???n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i ??? b???c tranh m?? B???c Kinh ch???c ch???n s??? mu???n che gi???u.
V??ng tr??n t??i ch??nh kh??p k??n
Theo nghi??n c???u n??y, Trung Qu???c xu???t kh???u nhi???u v???n sang c??c n?????c m???i n???i v?? ??ang ph??t tri???n h??n t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia c??ng nghi???p h??a kh??c c???ng l???i. H??n n???a, nhi???u ??i???u ki???n ??i k??m v???i kho???n cho vay ??ang ???? n???ng l??n vai c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n.
Trong khi c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y v?? c??c t??? ch???c ??a ph????ng th?????ng ????a ra l??i su???t th???p v?? th???i h???n thanh to??n d??i ?????i v???i c??c kho???n cho vay c???a h???, th?? Trung Qu???c c?? xu h?????ng ??p ?????t th???i h???n ng???n v?? l??i su???t cao h??n. ????? ?????m b???o c??c kho???n cho vay s??? ???????c thanh to??n, c??c h???p ?????ng cho vay quy ?????nh B???c Kinh c?? m???t s??? quy???n, ch???ng h???n nh?? quy???n ti???p c???n ngu???n th???c ph???m, nguy??n li???u th?? ho???c l???i nhu???n c???a c??c c??ng ty thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c ??? c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n. Th??ng th?????ng, Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ch??? ?????o r??t ti???n th???ng cho c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c ???? k?? h???p ?????ng x??y d???ng s??n bay, c???ng bi???n hay c??c con ?????p, c??ch ti???p c???n t???o ra m???t v??ng tr??n t??i ch??nh m?? kh??ng c?? s??? d??nh l??u c???a b???t k??? t??i kho???n n?????c ngo??i n??o.
Ngo??i ra, h??n 75% c??c kho???n cho vay d?????i d???ng vi???n tr??? tr???c ti???p ???????c cung c???p trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y ?????u ?????n t??? hai th??? ch??? t??i ch??nh do nh?? n?????c ??i???u h??nh: Ng??n h??ng xu???t nh???p kh???u Trung Qu???c v?? Ng??n h??ng ph??t tri???n Trung Qu???c. ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? ch??nh ph??? ???????c b??o c??o th?????ng xuy??n v??? m???i giai ??o???n c???a c??c d??? ??n vi???n tr??? v?? khi kh???ng ho???ng x???y ra v???i c??c n?????c cho vay, Trung Qu???c v???n c?? l???i th??? ????? gi??nh l???y t??i s???n th??? ch???p tr?????c c??c ch??? n??? kh??c. Nghi??n c???u l??u ?? r???ng Trung Qu???c ???? x??y d???ng m???t h??nh th???c vi???n tr??? ph??t tri???n m???i, trong ???? c??c kho???n cho vay c???p nh?? n?????c ???????c cung c???p t??y theo c??c ??i???u ki???n th????ng m???i.
??i???u ???? c?? th??? d???n ?????n c??c cu???c xung ?????t t???i t??? khi c??c d??? ??n kh??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh theo k??? ho???ch. Ch???ng h???n nh?? t???i Sri Lanka, Trung Qu???c c?? quy???n ki???m so??t m???t c???ng bi???n sau khi ch??nh ph??? n?????c n??y g???p kh?? kh??n trong vi???c tr??? n???. T???i Ecuador, B???c Kinh n???m gi??? 80% doanh thu t??? d???u m??? c???a n?????c n??y ????? b?? ?????p cho nh???ng ph?? t???n c?? li??n quan ?????n m???t d??? ??n x??y ?????p kh???ng l???. T???i Zambia, n?????c n??? Trung Qu???c 6 t??? USD theo ?????c t??nh, nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch lo ng???i r???ng B???c Kinh s??? ti???p qu???n c??ng ty cung c???p n??ng l?????ng nh?? n?????c Zesco.
S??? s??? h??i c??ng ??ang gia t??ng ??? Nam Phi, n??i T???ng th???ng Cyril Ramaphosa ???????c cho l?? ???? ????m ph??n v??? c??c kho???n cho vay v?? tr??? c???p tr??? gi?? 370 t??? rand (t????ng ??????ng kho???ng 24 t??? euro) trong m???t chuy???n th??m c???p nh?? n?????c t???i B???c Kinh m??a Thu n??m 2018. ?????ng ?????i l???p Li??n minh d??n ch??? lo ng???i r???ng Nam Phi c?? th??? sa v??o b???y n??? v?? B???c Kinh c?? th??? n???m quy???n ki???m so??t c??ng ty ??i???n thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c Eskom ??ang ch???t v???t duy tr?? s??? t???n t???i. M??a Thu n??m 2018, Ramaphosa kh???ng ?????nh r???ng Ch??nh ph??? Nam Phi ???kh??ng c?? th??i quen b??n giao t??i s???n c???a ?????t n?????c ch??ng t??i cho b???t k??? qu???c gia hay th???c th??? n??o kh??c???. C??u n??i n??y r?? r??ng ??m ch??? Trung Qu???c. Ch???c ch???n c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y kh??ng h??? kh?? ch???u khi Trung Qu???c, trong s??? nhi???u qu???c gia tr??n th??? gi???i, ?????m nh???n vai tr?? t???t th?? t???ng thu???c v??? IMF hay M??? trong m???t th???i gian d??i. Nh??ng d?? sao h??? v???n kh??ng y??n t??m tr?????c n??? l???c c???a B???c Kinh nh???m che gi???u quy m?? th???c s??? c???a c??c kho???n cho vay c???a n?????c n??y ?????i v???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n.
Nguy c?? v??? n???
Nghi??n c???u gi???a ?????c v?? M??? ???? v???ch ra quy m?? c???a n??? l???c ????. Nghi??n c???u n??y l???p lu???n r???ng nhi???u kho???n ti???n t??? B???c Kinh b??? che gi???u v?? ch??ng ???????c ????? th???ng v??o c??c c??ng ty thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c ??ang ho???t ?????ng t???i c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n. Tuy nhi??n c??c b???ng c??n ?????i k??? to??n c???a c??c c??ng ty n??y th?????ng kh??ng c?? trong th???ng k?? t??i ch??nh ch??nh th???c. K???t qu??? l?? m???t l?????ng l???n c??c kho???n cho vay ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? qua m???t c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y v?? c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t???. Nghi??n c???u n??y cho th???y s??? n??? c???a n?????c ngo??i m?? Trung Qu???c n???m gi??? cao h??n kho???ng 50% so v???i s??? li???u th???ng k?? ch??nh th???c.
S??? kh??c bi???t ?????c bi???t l???n ??? nh???ng n?????c v???n ???? n??? n???n ch???ng ch???t. Ch???ng h???n nh?? ??? B??? Bi???n Ng??, s??? n??? cao h??n 4 t??? USD so v???i m???c m?? ng?????i ta v???n ngh??. S??? ch??nh l???ch ??? Angola l?? 14 t??? USD v?? Venezuela l?? 33 t??? USD. Theo nghi??n c???u n??y, v?? Ch??nh quy???n B???c Kinh c?? xu h?????ng t??nh l??i su???t cao, n??n nhi???u n?????c m???i n???i v?? ??ang ph??t tri???n ph???i th???c hi???n ???ngh??a v??? tr??? n??? gia t??ng th?????ng ni??n???. ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? c??c kho???n thanh to??n l??i su???t c???a h??? ti???p t???c t??ng, l??m gia t??ng nguy c?? v??? n???.
M???t con t??u t???i th??nh ph??? bi???n Mombasa c???a Kenya ho???t ?????ng tr??n ???????ng ray do Trung Qu???c x??y d???ng.
C??c t??c gi??? c???a nghi??n c???u n??y l??u ?? r???ng t??nh h??nh hi???n nay g???i nh??? ?????n th???i ??i???m cu???i nh???ng n??m 1970, khi c??c ng??n h??ng l???n t??? M???, ch??u ??u v?? Nh???t B???n cung c???p c??c kho???n cho vay tr??? gi?? h??ng t??? USD cho c??c n?????c M??? Latinh v?? ch??u Phi v???n gi??u h??ng h??a ??? nh???ng m??n n??? ???? qua m???t ???????c c??c c?? quan gi??m s??t qu???c t???. Khi gi?? c???a nhi???u nguy??n li???u th?? s???t gi???m, c??c n?????c nh?? Mexico kh??ng th??? tr??? n??? ???????c n???a, v?? ph???n l???n c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n ?????u r??i v??o m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? khi???n h??? b??? ch???ng l???i trong nhi???u n??m.
Hi???n nay, t??nh h??nh g???n nh?? kh??ng c?? g?? kh??c bi???t. M???t l???n n???a, nhi???u n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n ???? ch???p nh???n c??c kho???n n??? kh???ng l???. V?? n???u t??nh c??? d??ng ti???n kh??ng r?? r??ng t??? Trung Qu???c, nh?? nghi??n c???u ???? ch??? ra, th?? s??? n??? m?? nhi???u n?????c ph???i g??nh ch???u m???t l???n n???a s??? ??? m???c cao nh?? h???i nh???ng n??m 1980. C??c t??c gi??? b??i vi???t cho r???ng t??nh hu???ng n??y ???gi???ng m???t c??ch ????ng ch?? ???????? v???i nh???ng g?? ???? x???y ra.
C??ng c?? nh???ng d???u hi???u ban ?????u cho th???y m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng ??ang ?????n r???t g???n. Pakistan g???n ????y ???? bu???c ph???i xin IMF c???p m???t kho???n cho vay kh???n c???p v?? h??? kh??ng th??? tr??? s??? n??? kh???ng l??? cho Trung Qu???c. T???i Sierra Leone, ch??nh ph??? ???? cho ng???ng x??y d???ng m???t s??n bay m?? Trung Qu???c c?? ?? t??i tr???. Trong khi ????, T???ng gi??m ?????c IMF Lagarde g???n nh?? trong m???i b??i ph??t bi???u ?????u ????? c???p ?????n nh???ng nguy c?? ??e d???a s??? ???n ?????nh t??i ch??nh to??n c???u.
Ch??u Phi c???n g???
Tuy nhi??n, tr?????c m???t ch??a th???y d???u hi???u d??ng t??n d???ng c???a Trung Qu???c s??? ng???ng l???i. C??c l???i th??? kinh t???, c??ng nh?? c??c l???i ??ch ch??nh tr???, ?????c bi???t l?? ??? ch??u Phi c???a Trung Qu???c ????n gi???n l?? qu?? l???n.
Trong khi ph????ng T??y ph???n l???n ch??? coi l???c ?????a n??y l?? ngu???n g???c li??n t???c g??y ra th???m h???a, th?? B???c Kinh l???i coi ????y l?? n??i c?? ti???m n??ng ch??a ???????c khai th??c. Kho???ng 1,5 tri???u ng?????i Trung Qu???c g???m c??c doanh nh??n, chuy??n gia c??ng ngh??? th??ng tin, k??? thu???t vi??n v?? th????ng nh??n ???????c cho l?? ??ang sinh s???ng v?? l??m vi???c ??? ch??u Phi.
H??? ???? m??? r???ng c?? s??? h??? t???ng ??? ch??u Phi v???i t???c ????? ?????y ???n t?????ng, x??y c??c con ?????p, s??n bay, ???????ng ray v?? c??c khu c??ng nghi???p tr??n kh???p ch??u l???c n??y. ?????i l???i, Trung Qu???c c?? quy???n ti???p c???n c??c ngu???n t??i nguy??n thi??n nhi??n v?? c??c th??? tr?????ng ch??u Phi.
Theo l???i T???ng th???ng Rwandan Paul Kagame, B???c Kinh ??ang mang ?????n ch??nh x??c nh???ng g?? ch??u Phi c???n. ??ng n???m trong nh??m ng??y c??ng nhi???u nh???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? ch??u Phi ??ang t??m c??ch b???t ch?????c m?? h??nh chuy??n ch??? ???????c Trung Qu???c ph??t tri???n th??nh c??ng, th?????ng c?? s??? ???ng h??? t??? ph??a ng?????i d??n. Theo m???t cu???c kh???o s??t ???????c c??c c??ng ty th??m d?? ?? ki???n tr??n trang web Afrobarometer th???c hi???n t???i 36 n?????c ch??u Phi, 63% s??? ng?????i ???????c h???i c?? c??i nh??n t??ch c???c v??? s??? can d??? c???a Trung Qu???c.
C??c nh?? c???m quy???n ch??u Phi mu???n h???p t??c v???i Trung Qu???c m???t ph???n l?? v?? n?????c n??y kh??ng li??n quan ?????n c??c quy ?????nh v??? ?????o ?????c gi???ng nh?? nh???ng ????i h???i, ??t nh???t l?? tr??n gi???y t???, c???a c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y. V?? h??? kh??ng qu?? ?????n ??o trong vi???c h???i l??? c??c ch??nh tr??? gia.
Tuy nhi??n, ng??y c??ng c?? nhi???u c???nh b??o v??? s??? n??? ??ang tr??? n??n qu?? cao ??? ch??u Phi. Kh??ng ch??? v?? nhi???u d??? ??n ???? t??? ra kh??ng kh??? thi v??? m???t kinh t???, m?? c??n v?? Trung Qu???c ???? v?? ??ang l??m m???t vi???c mang t??nh h??? th???ng l?? b??o c??o kh??ng ?????y ????? v??? ???nh h?????ng c???a h???.
R?? r??ng h??n n???a
Nh?? nghi??n c???u m???i ???? ch??? ra, trong khi s??? li???u th???ng k?? ch??nh th???c c???a Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c th?????ng ch??? li???t k?? c??c kho???n cho vay nh???, con s??? th???c t??? cao h??n nhi???u. Ch???ng h???n, ?????t n?????c nh??? b?? Djibouti ??ang n??? Trung Qu???c m???t kho???n t????ng ??????ng v???i 70% s???n l?????ng kinh t??? h??ng n??m c???a h???. Con s??? n??y ??? Congo l?? 30% v?? Kenya l?? 15%, l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i kho???n n??? c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y.
N??? c??ng c???a c??c n?????c v???i Trung Qu???c n??m 2017, t??nh theo % GDP.
T??nh h??nh n??y kh?? c?? th??? thay ?????i trong t????ng lai g???n. Trebesch n??i: ???Nhi???u d??? ??n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? c?? l???i cho c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n???. X??t cho c??ng, nhi???u n?????c ch??u Phi ??ang r???t c???n c?? s??? h??? t???ng hi???n ?????i.
H??n n???a, m???t s??? nghi??n c???u g???n ????y c???a M??? ???? v??? ra m???t b???c tranh ??t g??y hoang mang h??n v??? c??c kho???n cho vay ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c. Nh?? kinh t??? h???c Deborah Brautigam thu???c ?????i h???c Johns Hopkins ??? Baltimore nh???n th???y trong s??? 17 n?????c ch??u Phi m???c k???t trong cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n???, ch??? c?? 3 n?????c ti???p nh???n c??c kho???n cho vay t??? B???c Kinh. Trong khi ????, c??c nh?? ph??n t??ch ?????n t??? T???p ??ao??n Rhodium l???p lu???n r???ng Trung Qu???c kh??ng ?????c ??o??n nh?? nhi???u ng?????i v???n ngh??. Khi xem x??t 40 d??? ??n c???a B???c Kinh, t???p ??o??n n??y nh???n th???y Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c s???n s??ng ????a ra nh?????ng b??? v??? th???i h???n tr??? n??? n???u vi???c ???? l?? c???n thi???t.
Tuy v???y, t???n su???t c???a nh???ng nh?????ng b??? n??y d?????ng nh?? ch??? ra r???ng c??c ??i???u ki???n ban ?????u do Trung Qu???c ?????t ra l?? qu?? nghi??m ng???t. V?? t??nh h??nh n??y kh??ng ????p ???ng c??c ti??u chu???n qu???c t??? v??? t??nh minh b???ch li??n quan ?????n quy m?? c??c kho???n cho vay c???a B???c Kinh v?? c??c ??i???u ki???n k??m theo.
Tr??n th???c t???, ???? l?? s??? c???i thi???n quan tr???ng nh???t m?? Trabesch mu???n th???y ??? c??? th??? l?? Trung Qu???c cu???i c??ng s??? ph???i l??m r?? h??n c??c ho???t ?????ng t??i ch??nh c???a h??? t???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n. Th??? nh???t v?? h???u qu??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? c???a c??c kho???n cho vay n??y s??? tr??? n??n r?? r??ng h??n. Th??? hai v?? ??i???u ???? c?? th??? gi??p ng??n ch???n s??? b??ng n??? c???a m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? m???i t???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n.
X??t cho c??ng, Trung Qu???c s??? b??? ???nh h?????ng tr???c ti???p n???u ??i???u ???? x???y ra.
Theo Spiegel | Ngu???n: Nghi??n c???u Bi???n ????ng
Ng?????i Kurd l?? ai?


Ngu???n: Matthew Barbari, ???Who Are The Kurds????, Foreign Policy Association, 25/02/2016.
Bi??n d???ch: V?? H???ng Trang
G???n ????y, ph????ng T??y ?????t ph???n l???n s??? ch?? ?? c???a m??nh v??o cu???c xung ?????t Syria v?? s??? n???i l??n c???a Nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o (ISIS), g???t sang m???t b??n nh???ng nguy???n v???ng h??nh th??nh nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd. Tuy nhi??n, c??c quan ch???c Hoa K??? t??? l??u ???? coi ng?????i Kurd l?? m???t trong nh???ng ?????ng minh m???nh nh???t c???a h???, ?????c bi???t l?? trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng l???i ISIS.
Ng?????i Kurd l?? m???t nh??m d??n t???c s???ng ch??? y???u tr??n b???n qu???c gia: Th??? Nh?? K???, Iraq, Syria v?? Iran. T???i Th??? Nh?? K???, ng?????i Kurd ???????c ?????i di???n b???i c??? ?????ng C??ng nh??n ng?????i Kurd (PKK) v?? ?????ng D??n ch??? Nh??n d??n (HDP). Tuy ?????u n??? l???c ch???m d???t b???o l???c gi???a ng?????i Kurd Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? ch??nh ph??? c???a T???ng th???ng Recep Tayyip Erdogan, c??? hai s??? d???ng c??c chi???n l?????c kh??c nhau ????? ?????t ???????c m???c ti??u ????.
?????ng PKK l?? m???t nh??m qu??n s???, g??y ra nhi???u cu???c t???n c??ng ch???ng l???i l???c l?????ng Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? b??? c??? Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? M??? li???t k?? l?? m???t nh??m kh???ng b???.  Tr??i l???i, ?????ng HDP t??m c??ch gi??nh quy???n t??? tr??? cho ng?????i Kurd th??ng qua vi???c tham gia ti???n tr??nh ch??nh tr??? v?? n??? l???c kh??ng ng???ng ????? kh??ng b??? cho l?? d??nh l??u t???i b???o l???c g??y ra b???i ?????ng PKK.
Khi c??c ???ng c??? vi??n ch??nh tr??? Hoa K??? n??i v??? vi???c trang b??? v?? trang cho ng?????i Kurd trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS, h??? th?????ng kh??ng ph??n bi???t ???????c gi???a ng?????i Kurd ??? Th??? Nh?? K???, ??? Syria v?? ??? Iraq. Khi Hoa K??? ????? c???p ?????n c??c ?????ng minh ng?????i Kurd, n?????c n??y c?? ?? nh???c t???i ng?????i Kurd ??? ????ng B???c Iraq.
Ngay trong ch??nh ng?????i Kurd Iraq, d??n s??? ??t nhi???u chia th??nh hai phe: ?????ng D??n ch??? Kurdistan (KDP) v?? Li??n minh y??u n?????c Kurdistan (PUK). G???n ????y h??n, ?????ng Gorran, ngh??a l?? ??? thay ?????i???, ???? mang ?????n m???t s??? l???a ch???n m???i b??n c???nh hai ?????ng truy???n th???ng.
M???c d?? c?? s??? chia r??? d???n ?????n cu???c n???i chi???n (1994 ??? 1997), hai nh??m hi???n t???i ??ang ??o??n k???t c??ng nhau trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS v?? v?? m???c ti??u chung l?? l???p n??n nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd. Tuy nhi??n, ???? kh??ng ph???i l?? nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd xuy??n qu???c gia m?? PKK k??? v???ng, m?? l?? m???t nh?? n?????c b??n trong bi??n gi???i Iraq.
??? Syria, c??c ????n v??? T??? v??? Nh??n d??n (YPG) ??? c??nh qu??n s??? c???a ?????ng Li??n minh D??n ch??? ng?????i Kurd (PYD) ??? ???? c?? m???t lo???t chi???n th???ng qu??n s??? ch???ng l???i ISIS trong nh???ng th??ng qua. Th??? Nh?? K??? xem PYD nh?? l?? t??? ch???c m??? c???a PKK ??? Syria v?? ??ang t??ch c???c ch???ng l???i s??? th??c ?????y x??y d???ng m???t nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd ??? Syria v?? lo ng???i ??i???u n??y s??? k??ch ?????ng ng?????i Kurd thi???u s??? ??? ch??nh Th??? Nh?? K???. Th???t v???y, Hoa K??? ph???i ch???t v???t c??n b???ng s??? h??? tr??? cho PYD trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS v???i vi???c kh??ng ch???c gi???n Ankara.
S??? do d??? c???a M??? ???? t???o c?? h???i Nga. K??? t??? khi Th??? Nh?? K??? b???n h??? m???t m??y bay chi???n ?????u c???a Nga t???i bi??n gi???i Syria ??? Th??? Nh?? K???, Moskva ???? c?? xu h?????ng h??? tr??? ng?????i Kurd ??? Syria v?? ?????ng PYD nh???m t???o ra m???t khu v???c b??n t??? tr??? ??? ph??a b???c g???i l?? ???Rojava???. H??n n???a, Nga kh??ng xem PYD hay PKK l?? t??? ch???c kh???ng b???, v?? do ???? c??ng kh??ng e ng???i vi???c h??? tr??? cho h???.
S??? ??a d???ng c???a c??c phong tr??o (h?????ng t???i th??nh l???p) qu???c gia c???a ng?????i Kurd tr??n kh???p Trung ????ng cho th???y m???t kh??a c???nh ph???c t???p kh??c trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS. M???t trong nh???ng ??i???u kh??ng th??? ph??? nh???n l?? cu???c ?????u tranh c???a ng?????i Kurd kh??ng th??? ti???p t???c b??? c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? ph???t l???.
22/05/1455: Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng b???t ?????u


Ngu???n: The War of the RosesHistory.com
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1455, trong tr???n chi???n m??? m??n Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng c???a n?????c Anh, l???c l?????ng c???a Nh?? York ???? ????nh b???i phe Lancaster c???a vua Henry VI t???i St. Albans, c??ch London 20 d???m v??? ph??a t??y b???c. Nhi???u qu?? t???c c???a Nh?? Lancaster ???? thi???t m???ng, bao g???m c??? Edmund Beaufort, C??ng t?????c x??? Somerset, v?? nh?? vua ???? bu???c ph???i tu??n theo m???nh l???nh c???a ng?????i anh h??? l?? Richard c???a Nh?? York. Cu???c chi???n v????ng quy???n dai d???ng gi???a Nh?? York, v???i bi???u t?????ng hoa h???ng tr???ng, v?? Nh?? Lancaster, v???i bi???u t?????ng hoa h???ng ?????, ???? k??o d??i trong 30 n??m.
C??? hai d??ng h???, v???n c?? quan h??? g???n g??i, ???? tuy??n b??? ????i ng??i b??u th??ng qua c??c h???u du??? c???a c??c con trai c???a Edward III, vua n?????c Anh trong giai ??o???n 1327 ??? 1377. V??? vua ?????u ti??n c???a Nh?? Lancaster l?? Henry IV, l??n ng??i n??m 1399. N???i lo???n v?? v?? ph??p ???? xu???t hi???n trong su???t th???i tr??? v?? c???a ??ng. Sau ????, con trai ??ng, Henry V, ???? th??nh c??ng h??n v?? gi??nh chi???n th???ng quy???t ?????nh trong Chi???n tranh Tr??m n??m ch???ng Ph??p.
Nh??ng ch??u n???i Henry VI th?? l???i kh??ng c?? ph???m ch???t c???a m???t nh?? vua v?? ???? ????? m???t ph???n l???n ?????t Ph??p m?? cha m??nh ???? chinh ph???c ???????c. N???i b??? n?????c Anh ch??m trong h???n lo???n v?? c??c l??nh ch??a v???i qu??n ?????i ri??ng ???? ra th??ch th???c quy???n l???c c???a Henry VI. ????i khi, v??? ho??ng h???u ?????y tham v???ng, Margaret x??? Anjou, m???i l?? ng?????i th???c s??? ki???m so??t ngai v??ng.
N??m 1453, Henry VI m???c ph???i c??n b???nh ??i??n lo???n. N??m 1454, Ngh??? vi???n b??? nhi???m Richard, C??ng t?????c x??? York, l??m ng?????i b???o v??? v????ng qu???c. Hai ng?????i ??ng c???a Henry v?? Richard l???n l?????t l?? con trai th??? t?? v?? th??? ba c???a Edward III. Khi Henry h???i ph???c v??o cu???i n??m 1454, ??ng ???? ph??? tru???t Richard v?? kh??i ph???c l???i quy???n h??nh cho Margaret, ng?????i lu??n coi Richard l?? m???i ??e d???a cho quy???n k??? v??? c???a con trai b?? ??? Ho??ng t??? Edward.
Richard ???? x??y d???ng m???t ?????i qu??n g???m 3.000 ng?????i, v?? v??o th??ng 05, qu??n ?????i Nh?? York ???? di???u h??nh t???i London. Ng??y 22/05/1455, phe York ?????i ?????u l???c l?????ng c???a Henry VI t???i St. Albans trong khi ??ang h??nh qu??n tr??n con ???????ng ph??a b???c ti???n ?????n th??? ????. Cu???c ?????ng ????? ?????m m??u k??o d??i ch??a ?????y m???t gi???, v?? Nh?? York ???? gi??nh chi???n th???ng. C??ng t?????c x??? Somerset, ?????ng minh l???n c???a Margaret, ???? b??? gi???t ch???t, c??n Henry th?? b??? phe York b???t gi???.
Sau tr???n chi???n, Richard l???i tr??? th??nh ng?????i b???o v??? v????ng qu???c, nh??ng sang n??m 1456, Margaret ???? gi??nh l???i quy???n l???c. M???t n???n h??a b??nh kh??ng m???y tho???i m??i ???? b??? ph?? v??? v??o n??m 1459. N??m 1460, Nh?? Lancaster b??? ????nh b???i, Richard ???? ???????c quy???n l??n ng??i khi Henry qua ?????i. Nh?? Lancaster sau ???? ???? t???p h???p c??c l???c l?????ng ??? mi???n b???c n?????c Anh, v?? th??ng 12/1460, h??? ???? t???n c??ng b???t ng??? v?? gi???t ch???t Richard ??? b??n ngo??i l??u ????i c???a ??ng, g???n Wakefield.
Con trai c???a Richard, Edward, ???? ?????n London tr?????c Margaret v?? ???????c t???n phong l?? vua Edward IV. Th??ng 03/1461, Edward ???? gi??nh chi???n th???ng quy???t ?????nh ch???ng l???i phe Lancaster trong Tr???n Towton, tr???n chi???n ?????m m??u nh???t. Henry, Margaret, v?? con trai ph???i tr???n sang Scotland, v?? giai ??o???n ?????u c???a cu???c chi???n ???? k???t th??c.
Tranh gi??nh quy???n l???c trong n???i b??? Nh?? York sau ???? ???? d???n t???i vi???c l???t ????? Edward v??o n??m 1470, v?? Henry VI quay l???i ng??i vua. M???t n??m sau, Edward quay tr??? l???i sau th???i gian b??? l??u ????y ??? H?? Lan, ????nh b???i l???c l?????ng c???a Margaret, gi???t ch???t con trai c???a b??, v?? giam Henry trong Th??p London, n??i ??ng b??? s??t h???i. Edward IV ???? c???m quy???n m?? kh??ng b??? gi??n ??o???n cho ?????n khi ??ng qua ?????i v??o n??m 1483. Con trai c??? c???a ??ng ???????c t???n phong l??m vua Edward V, nh??ng anh trai c???a Edward IV, Richard III, ???? gi??nh l???y v????ng mi???n v?? giam gi??? Edward V c??ng em trai ??? Th??p London, n??i m?? hai ho??ng t??? ???? bi???n m???t, c?? l??? h??? ???? b??? s??t h???i. N??m 1485, trong Tr???n Bosworth Field, Richard III b??? ????nh b???i v?? gi???t ch???t b???i phe Lancaster do Henry Tudor d???n ?????u.
Henry Tudor ???????c t???n phong l??m vua Henry VII, v??? vua ?????u ti??n c???a Nh?? Tudor. Henry l?? ch??u n???i c???a Catherine x??? Valois, ng?????i v??? g??a c???a Henry V, v?? Owen Tudor. N??m 1486, ??ng k???t h??n v???i con g??i c???a Edward IV, Elizabeth x??? York, nh??? ???? th???ng nh???t hai nh?? York v?? Lancaster. S??? ki???n n??y ???????c coi l?? ????nh d???u s??? k???t th??c c???a Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng; d?? th???c t???, v??o n??m 1487, v???n c?? m???t s??? ng?????i nh?? York ???ng h??? m???t cu???c n???i d???y kh??ng th??nh c??ng do Lambert Simnel d???n ?????u nh???m ch???ng l???i Henry. Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng kh??ng ????? l???i nhi???u d???u ???n ?????i v???i th?????ng d??n Anh Qu???c, nh??ng n?? ???? l??m suy gi???m r???t nhi???u h??ng ng?? qu?? t???c n?????c n??y.
T????ng lai ????i Loan sau b???a t???i gi???a T???p v?? M??


Ngu???n: Chris Patten, ???A Chinese Dinner for Two???, Project Syndicate, 10/11/2015.
Bi??n d???ch: Tr???n V??n Th???ng | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p
M???t l?????ng n?????c l???n ???? ch???y qua eo bi???n ????i Loan trong 70 n??m qua k??? t??? khi nh?? l??nh ?????o C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c l?? Mao Tr???ch ????ng g???p g??? T?????ng Gi???i Th???ch ??? th??? l??nh Qu???c D??n ?????ng ?????i l???p. Do ???? cu???c g???p g???n ????y ??? Singapore gi???a nh???ng ng?????i k??? th???a c???a h???: Ch??? t???ch C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa T???p C???n B??nh v?? ng?????i ?????ng nhi???m ????i Loan M?? Anh C???u c?? th??? ????ng ???????c mi??u t??? l?? m???t s??? ki???n mang t??nh l???ch s???.
Cu???c ????m ph??n ngo???i giao di???n ra tr?????c cu???c g???p n??y r???t ph???c t???p, th???m ch?? bao g???m c??? vi???c ai n??n tr??? ti???n cho b???a t???i (h??? ???? chia ti???n h??a ????n). Tuy nhi??n, sau cu???c g???p ng???n ?????ng sau nh???ng c??nh c???a kh??p k??n ???? kh??ng c?? m???t tuy??n b??? chung n??o ???????c ????a ra v?? ch??? c?? m???t b??i t?????ng thu???t ???????c r?? so??t k??? l?????ng v??? cu???c g???p ???????c ph??t tr??n c??c ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng nh?? n?????c c???a Trung Qu???c. V???y t???i sao cu???c g???p n??y di???n ra v?? n?? b??o tr?????c ??i???u g???
K??? t??? khi nh???ng ng?????i C???ng s???n c???a ??ng Mao gi??nh chi???n th???ng trong cu???c n???i chi???n (cu???c chi???n m?? cu???c g???p cu???i c??ng gi???a hai ?????ng n??m 1945 n??? l???c ng??n ch???n) v?? l???c l?????ng Qu???c d??n ?????ng c???a T?????ng Gi???i Th???ch r??t v??? ????i Loan, quan h??? gi???a hai b??n v???n ??m ??? n??ng m?? ch??a bao gi??? th???c s??? b???t l???a. M???i quan h??? t???t ?????p gi???a Hoa K??? v?? gi???i l??nh ?????o Qu???c d??n ?????ng kh??ng h??? m???t ??i, v?? Hoa K??? ???? trao cho ????i Loan nh???ng ?????m b???o v??? m???t qu??n s??? nh???m ng??n c???n Trung Qu???c c??? g???ng th???ng nh???t h??n ?????o n??y v???i ?????i l???c b???ng v?? l???c.
C??c cu???c phi??u l??u c???a ??ng Mao tr??n b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n nh???m ???ng h??? B???c Tri???u Ti??n ch???ng Nam Tri???u Ti??n v?? c??c ?????ng minh ph????ng T??y c???a n?? ???? gi??p c???ng c??? tr???c quan h??? Washington ??? ????i B???c; v?? nh??? m???t s??? ?????ng th??i ngo???i giao kh??o l??o, tr???c quan h??? n??y ???? ti???p t???c t???n t???i b???t ch???p ch??nh s??ch c???i thi???n quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c v??o ?????u nh???ng n??m 1970 c???a T???ng th???ng M??? Richard Nixon. Hoa K??? ???? c??ng nh???n nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n ??? B???c Kinh l?? ch??nh ph??? h???p ph??p c???a Trung Qu???c, ?????ng th???i gi??p duy tr?? ????i Loan trong m???t t??nh tr???ng l???p l???ng v??? ch??? quy???n v?? ?????a v??? m???t qu???c gia ?????c l???p. H??n ?????o n??y v???n h??nh c??ng vi???c ri??ng c???a m??nh, tr??? th??nh m???t n???n d??n ch??? n??ng ?????ng trong nh???ng n??m 1980, nh??ng kh??ng bao gi??? nh???t quy???t ????i ???????c qu???c t??? c??ng nh???n l?? m???t nh?? n?????c c?? ch??? quy???n ?????y ?????.
V???i nh???ng nh?? c???m quy???n c???a Trung Qu???c, ????i Loan l?? m???t ???t???nh n???i lo???n??? v?? Trung Qu???c ki??n quy???t kh??ng quan h??? ngo???i giao v???i nh???ng th??nh vi??n c???a c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? c??? g???ng coi ????i Loan l?? m???t qu???c gia ?????c l???p. Tuy nhi??n, trong qu?? tr??nh ???? c??ng c?? m???t s??? c??ng nh???n tr??n th???c ti???n, ?????c bi???t l?? v??? m???t kinh t???.
Ng?????i ta nh??? v??? n??m 1989 v?? c??c v??? th???m s??t ??? Qu???ng tr?????ng Thi??n An M??n. Nh??ng v??o th??ng N??m v?? th??ng S??u, c??c b??? tr?????ng trong ???? c?? t??i ???? bay t???i B???c Kinh ????? tham d??? m???t s??? ki???n m?? d?????ng nh?? ?????i v???i t???t c??? ch??ng t??i l?? m???t c?? h???i t??ch c???c v?? th???c s??? mang t??nh l???ch s???. Trung Qu???c ???? l???n ?????u ti??n cho ph??p ????i Loan tham d??? cu???c h???p th?????ng ni??n c???a Ban Qu???n tr??? Ng??n h??ng Ph??t tri???n Ch??u ?? (ADB), mi???n l?? n?? ???????c g???i b???ng c??i t??n ???????i B???c, Trung Qu???c???.
V??i n??m sau, khi t??i l?? m???t ???y vi??n c???a Li??n minh ch??u ??u (EU), sau khi ????m ph??n vi???c gia nh???p T??? ch???c Th????ng m???i Th??? gi???i (WTO) c???a c??? C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa v?? ????i Loan, ch??ng t??i mu???n thi???t l???p m???t v??n ph??ng EU t???i ????i B???c ????? theo d??i s??? tu??n th??? c??c quy t???c WTO c???a h??n ?????o n??y. Tr?????c khi l??m nh?? v???y, t??i ???? nh???n m???nh v???i ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c r???ng nh???ng g?? ch??ng t??i ??ang l??m ch??? l?? m??? m???t c?? quan th????ng m???i ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t ?????i s??? qu??n.
?????i v???i c??? Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan, ti???n c?? s???c h??t, v?? n???n kinh t??? c???a hai b??? hi???n nay ???????c li??n k???t ch???t ch???, v???i nhi???u ng?????i ????i Loan s???ng v?? l??m vi???c t???i Trung Qu???c (?????c bi???t ??? khu v???c Th?????ng H???i) v?? c??c kho???n ?????u t?? r???t l???n c???a ????i Loan v??o ng??nh ch??? t???o c???a Trung Qu???c. Foxconn c???a ????i Loan, nh?? s???n xu???t thi???t b??? ??i???n t??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i (bao g???m c??c thi???t b??? Blackberry, iPhone, v?? Kindle), c?? 12 nh?? m??y ??? Trung Qu???c, trong ???? m???t nh?? m??y ??? Th??m Quy???n s??? d???ng h??ng tr??m ng??n lao ?????ng.
Tuy nhi??n, m???c d?? n???n ch??nh tr??? ????i Loan b??? chi ph???i m???t c??ch t??? nhi??n b???i m???i quan h??? c???a h??n ?????o n??y v???i ?????i l???c, th???c t??? quan h??? th????ng m???i s??u s???c gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ???? kh??ng c?? s??? t????ng ???ng v??? m???t ngo???i giao. Qu???c D??n ?????ng mu???n c???i thi???n quan h??? m?? kh??ng t??? b??? s??? ?????c l???p c???a ????i Loan. ?????i th??? c???a n??, ?????ng D??n Ti???n, l???i mu???n ?????t ???????c m???t t?? th??? t??? ch??? h??n, m???c d?? kh??? n??ng ?????ng n??y c?? th???c s??? mu???n b???t c??? ??i???u g?? th???c ch???t t???i m???c l??m Trung Qu???c t???c gi???n v???n l?? kh??ng ch???c ch???n.
M???t cu???c kh???o s??t ba n??m tr?????c ????y cho th???y r???ng 80% trong t???ng s??? 25 tri???u ng?????i d??n ????i Loan s??? ???ng h??? m???t tuy??n b??? ?????c l???p ch??nh th???c, mi???n l?? ??i???u n??y kh??ng d???n ?????n m???t cu???c x??m l?????c c???a Trung Qu???c. ???? l?? m???t t??? l??? kh?? l???n. Trung Qu???c th?????ng xuy??n c???nh b??o ????i Loan kh??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh b???t k??? h??nh ?????ng n??o li???u l??nh nh?? v???y, v?? Hoa K??? c??ng g??y s???c ??p l??n c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o c???a h??n ?????o b???t c??? khi n??o h??? c?? v??? tr??? n??n qu?? xem th?????ng ?????i l???c.
D?????ng nh?? c?? hai l?? do cho cu???c g???p gi???a ??ng T???p v?? ??ng M??. ?????u ti??n, h??? lo l???ng r???ng Qu???c D??n ?????ng, v???n ???? th???t b???i th???m h???i trong c??c cu???c b???u c??? ?????a ph????ng n??m ngo??i, s??? ti???p t???c th???t b???i trong cu???c t???ng tuy???n c??? v??o th??ng M???t (n??m 2016). C??? hai hy v???ng r???ng vi???c th??? hi???n Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan c?? th??? h??a thu???n v???i nhau m?? kh??ng g???p qu?? nhi???u r???c r???i s??? mang l???i l???i th??? b???u c??? cho Qu???c d??n ?????ng.
Ngo??i ra, t???i th???i ??i???m khi m?? n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ??ang ph??t tri???n ch???m l???i v?? nh???ng c??ng th???ng trong khu v???c ??ang t??ng l??n do Trung Qu???c ??ang khoa tr????ng c?? b???p t???i Bi???n ????ng v?? Bi???n Hoa ????ng, ??ng T???p c?? v??? h??o h???c mu???n th??? hi???n tinh th???n y??u chu???ng h??a b??nh c???a m??nh. Sau khi l??m nhi???u n?????c l??ng gi???ng ch??? kh??ng ch??? ng?????i M??? b???t an, chuy???n th??m c???a ??ng ?????n Vi???t Nam v?? chuy???n th??m c???a Th??? t?????ng L?? Kh???c C?????ng t???i H??n Qu???c l?? m???t ph???n t????ng t??? v???i ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao ?????n t???i??? v???i ??ng M??.
Nh???ng d??? ?????nh th???c s??? v?? v??? d??i h???n c???a Trung Qu???c kh??ng ho??n to??n r?? r??ng, v?? c?? l??? ???? l?? m???t ph???n trong chi???n l?????c c???a n?????c n??y: Nh???ng t??n hi???u kh??ng r?? r??ng ????ng m???t vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong ngo???i giao. Nh??ng c?? hai ??i???u r?? r??ng.
Tr?????c h???t, s??ng ki???n c???a ??ng T???p th??? hi???n m???c ????? m?? ??ng chi ph???i n???n ch??nh tr??? Trung Qu???c. M???t nh?? l??nh ?????o y???u h??n c?? th??? ???? kh??ng ti???n h??nh m???t b?????c ??i nhi???u tham v???ng nh?? v???y, ??i???u cho th???y m???t s??? ?????t ph?? kh???i t?? duy ch??nh th???ng c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n tr?????c ????y.
Th??? hai, vi???c t??i th???ng nh???t h??a b??nh gi???a ?????i l???c v?? ????i Loan v???n s??? kh??ng x???y ra tr??? phi di???n ra tr??n c?? s??? ???m???t nh?? n?????c, hai ch??? ???????? nh?? Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c h???a h???n. Tuy nhi??n, ng?????i ????i Loan kh??ng th??? an t??m tr?????c nh???ng ??i???u m?? h??? ch???ng ki???n ng??y nay ??? H???ng K??ng, n??i t???ng ???????c h???a h???n ??i???u t????ng t??? tr?????c khi tr??? v??? v???i Trung Qu???c ?????i l???c n??m 1997.
H??? th???ng c???a ????i Loan l?? d??n ch???, c??n c???a Trung Qu???c th?? kh??ng nh?? v???y. ??i???u m?? tr?????ng h???p c???a H???ng K??ng cho th???y l?? Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i ??p ????i Loan t??? b??? d??n ch??? v?? ph??p quy???n ??? ho???c t??? m??nh theo ??u???i c??? hai ??i???u ???? ??? tr?????c khi n?????c n??y c?? th??? ch??o ????n ???t???nh n???i lo???n??? c???a m??nh tr??? v??? v???i ?????i gia ????nh.
Chris Patten, Th???ng ?????c cu???i c??ng c???a Anh t???i H???ng K??ng v?? l?? c???u ???y vi??n c???a EU v??? ?????i ngo???i, l?? Hi???u tr?????ng c???a ?????i h???c Oxford.
Copyright: Project Syndicate 2015 ??? A Chinese Dinner for Two
04/08/1854: ???Walden??? c???a Henry David Thoreau ???????c xu???t b???n


Ngu???n: Henry David Thoreau???s ???Walden??? is publishedHistory.com
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng
T??c ph???m kinh ??i???n c???a Henry David Thoreau, Walden hay A Life in the Woods (M???t m??nh s???ng trong r???ng) ng??y nay l?? cu???n s??ch ph???i ?????c trong nhi???u l???p h???c. Nh??ng trong l???n ph??t h??nh ?????u ti??n ??? v??o ng??y n??y n??m 1854 ??? n?? ch??? ?????t ???????c doanh s??? khi??m t???n, kho???ng 300 b???n m???i n??m.
Cu???n s??ch c???a nh?? v??n ng?????i M??? theo tr?????ng ph??i si??u vi???t/ti??n nghi???m (transcendentalist) l?? c??u chuy???n k??? ??? ng??i th??? nh???t, vi???t v??? th???i gian th??? nghi???m s???ng ????n gi???n c???a ??ng t???i Walden Pond ??? Concord, Massachusetts, b???t ?????u t??? n??m 1845, k??o d??i trong hai n??m v?? hai th??ng. Cu???n s??ch ??i s??u kh??m ph?? quan ??i???m c???a Thoreau v??? t??? nhi??n, ch??nh tr??? v?? tri???t h???c.
Thoreau ch??? l?? m???t sinh vi??n 27 tu???i t???t nghi???p tr?????ng Harvard khi ??ng chuy???n ?????n Walden. ??ng ???? d???ng m???t cabin 10 x 15 foot ????n gi???n d???c theo b??? ao r???ng 62 m???u, c??ch nh?? h??ng x??m g???n nh???t m???t d???m ???????ng, tr??n m???nh ?????t thu???c s??? h???u c???a b???n m??nh, nh?? th?? Ralph Waldo Emerson.
???T??i v??o r???ng v?? mu???n s???ng c?? ch??? ??, ????? ch??? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nh???ng s??? th???t thi???t y???u c???a cu???c s???ng, v?? xem li???u m??nh c?? th??? s???ng m?? kh??ng c???n h???c nh???ng g?? ?????i s???ng ???y d???y, v?? ????? khi ch???t kh??ng ph???i nh???n ra r???ng t??i ???? kh??ng s???ng,??? ??ng vi???t.
???Thu nh???p??? duy nh???t c???a Thoreau l??c ???y ?????n t??? lao ?????ng tay ch??n. Thoreau l??m ru???ng, ??n v?? b??n c??c lo???i c??y tr???ng c???a m??nh, g???m ?????u, khoai t??y, ng??, ?????u H?? Lan v?? c??? c???i, th?????ng xuy??n v??o th??? tr???n (bao g???m c??? vi???c ??i th??m m??? m??nh, ng?????i s???ng d???c ???????ng) v?? d???o ch??i c??ng du kh??ch.
L?????t in ?????u ti??n l?? 2.000 cu???n s??ch, gi?? 1 USD m???t cu???n, v?? ph???i m???t 5 n??m ????? b??n h???t. T???a s??ch sau ???? ???????c r??t ng???n th??nh Walden, theo y??u c???u c???a Thoreau. ???? l?? m???t trong hai cu???n s??ch d??i m?? ??ng xu???t b???n (m???c d?? ??ng c??ng vi???t c??? nh???ng t??c ph???m ng???n, nh?? b??i ti???u lu???n n???i ti???ng ???Civil Disobedience???). Cu???n s??ch ?????u ti??n c???a ??ng, A Week on the Concord and Merrimack Rivers, ???????c ph??t h??nh n??m 1849, c??ng ???????c vi???t trong th???i gian ??ng ??? Walden, l?? t??c ph???m t?????ng ni???m ng?????i anh trai qu?? c???, John.
#51 ??? B???i th?????ng cho n???n nh??n b??? x??m ph???m nh??n quy???n nghi??m tr???ng: Tr?????ng h???p Campuchia


Ngu???n: Hao Duy Phan, ???Reparations to Victims of Gross Human Rights Violations: The Case of Cambodia???, East Asia Law Review, Vol 4,  pp. 277-298.>>PDF
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Thanh H?? | Hi???u ????nh: L?? Thanh T??ng
C???ng ?????ng th??? gi???i ???? gi???i thi???u nhi???u c??ng c??? ph??p l?? kh??c nhau li??n quan ?????n vi???c b???i th?????ng cho n???n nh??n b??? x??m ph???m nh??n quy???n nghi??m tr???ng. Tuy nhi??n, t???i Campuchia, v???n ????? b???i th?????ng cho nh???ng vi ph???m nghi??m tr???ng v?? c?? t??nh h??? th???ng li??n quan ?????n nh??n quy???n c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ????? v???n ch??a c?? l???i gi???i ????p, d?? T??a ??n ?????c bi???t c???a Campuchia nh???m Truy t??? c??c T???i ??c d?????i th???i Campuchia D??n ch??? ???? ???????c th??nh l???p. Trong tr?????ng h???p ph???c t???p nh?? t???i Campuchia, c?? r???t nhi???u c??u h???i li??n quan ?????n v???n ????? b???i th?????ng v???n ch??a ???????c gi???i ????p. B??i b??o n??y s??? xem x??t v???n ????? ???? v?? ????a ra m???t v??i ????? xu???t v??? m???t ch????ng tr??nh b???i th?????ng kh??? thi v?? hi???u qu??? cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ?????.
I. Gi???i thi???u
Ng??y 17 th??ng 4 n??m 1975, ch??? hai tu???n tr?????c khi ch??nh quy???n S??i G??n s???p ?????, Phmom P??nh ???? r??i v??o tay ch??nh quy???n Khmer ?????, b???t ?????u th???i k??? l???ch s??? ??en t???i c???a ???nh???ng c??nh ?????ng ch???t???. Ch??nh quy???n Khmer ????? ???? ????a ra m???t chi???n d???ch nh???m t???o n??n m???t ???h??? th???ng x?? h???i s???ch???, th??ng qua ???? ch??ng ???? vi ph???m quy???n con ng?????i r???ng kh???p, ?????y ba tri???u ng?????i ph???i di c?? kh???i c??c th??nh ph??? v??? c??c v??ng n??ng th??n l??m n?? l??? lao ?????ng kh??? sai v?? ti??u di???t t???t c??? nh???ng ai b??? cho l?? ??e d???a ?????n m???c ????ch c???a ch??ng.[1]

H??n ba th???p k??? tr??i qua, m???c ti??u b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i m???t c??ch to??n di???n v???n n???m ngo??i t???m v???i c???a nh???ng n???n nh??n m?? quy???n c???a h??? ???? b??? ch??nh quy???n Khmer ????? t?????c ??o???t m???t c??ch nghi??m tr???ng v?? c?? h??? th???ng. V???n ????? n??y ???? ??t nh???n ???????c s??? quan t??m t??? ch??nh ph??? c??ng nh?? c???ng ?????ng qu???c t???, ngay c??? khi T??a ??n ?????c bi???t c???a Campuchia nh???m Truy t??? c??c T???i ??c d?????i th???i Campuchia D??n ch??? (Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia for the Prosecution of Crimes Committed during the Period of Democratic Kampuchea, vi???t t???t l?? ECCC) ???? ???????c th??nh l???p.[2]
Ch??nh ph??? hi???n t???i c?? ngh??a v??? ph??p l?? ph???i b???i th?????ng cho nh???ng n???n nh??n c???a ch??nh quy???n c?? kh??ng? Ai c?? th??? y??u c???u b???i th?????ng? H??nh th???c b???i th?????ng n??o l?? th??ch h???p v?? kh??? thi v???i t??nh h??nh ??? Campuchia? ???? ch??? l?? m???t s??? trong nhi???u c??u h???i xung quanh v???n ????? b???i th?????ng v???n ch??a ???????c gi???i ????p. V???i m???c ????ch x??c ?????nh b???n ph???n c???a ch??nh ph??? Campuchia trong vi???c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i v?? ????a ra m???t s??? g???i ?? v??? m???t ch????ng tr??nh b???i th?????ng hi???u qu??? v?? kh??? thi cho c??c n???n nh???n c???a ch??nh quy???n Khmer ?????, b??i b??o n??y s??? c??? g???ng ????? tr??? l???i c??c c??u h???i ????.
B??i b??o g???m c?? 5 ph???n. Ph???n II ph??n t??ch c??c tr??ch nhi???m ph??p l?? c???a ch???nh ph??? Campuchia v?? tr??ch nhi???m c???a nh???ng c?? nh??n ???? g??y ra t???i ??c trong vi???c b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n. Ph???n III ph??n t??ch nh???ng vi???c ???? ???????c l??m cho ?????n nay ????? gi???i quy???t c??c v???n ????? n??y v?? c??? g???ng gi???i th??ch t??nh tr???ng tr?? tr??? hi???n nay. Ti???p theo, ph???n IV s??? ????a ra m???t s??? c?? s??? ????? x??c ?????nh xem ?????i t?????ng n??o n??n ???????c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i. Ph???n V s??? ????nh gi?? h??nh th???c b???i th?????ng kh??? d?? nh???t cho c??c n???n nh??n ??? Campuchia. Ph???n cu???i s??? ????a ra m???t s??? g???i ?? v??? c??ch th???c th???c hi???n b???i th?????ng. Vi???c bi???n quy???n (???????c b???i th?????ng) n??y tr??? th??nh th???c t??? v???n l?? m???t th??ch th???c l???n. Song, th??ch th???c n??y n??n ???????c v?????t qua v?? v???n ????? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n Khmer ????? ph???i ???????c gi???i quy???t c??ng s???m c??ng t???t ????? ?????m b???o c??ng l?? th???c s??? cho c??c n???n nh???n b??? x??m h???i nh??n quy???n nghi??m tr???ng ??? Campuchia.
II. Ngh??a v??? b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i cho n???n nh??n c???a Khmer ?????
B???ng Ch??? d???n v?? Nguy??n t???c C?? b???n c???a Li??n H???p Qu???c v??? Quy???n ???????c B???i th?????ng c???a c??c N???n nh??n b??? X??m ph???m Nh??n quy???n Nghi??m tr???ng v?? Lu???t Nh??n ?????o qu???c t??? quy ?????nh vi???c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i bao g???m vi???c ????? b?? kh??i ph???c nguy??n tr???ng, b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i, t??i h??a nh???p c??c n???n nh??n, kh???c ph???c v??? tinh th???n, v?? ?????m b???o kh??ng t??i di???n s??? x??m ph???m n???a.[3] Th??ng th?????ng, vi???c ?????n b?? ph???c h???i nguy??n tr???ng (restitution) l?? h??nh th???c ?????n b?? ???????c mong mu???n nh???t.[4] Vi???c ph???c h???i ???h?????ng t???i vi???c kh??i ph???c l???i nguy??n tr???ng ban ?????u (status quo ante)[5] c???a n???n nh??n???, v?? d??? nh?? bao g???m vi???c tr??? l???i t??i s???n, kh??i ph???c t??? do, ?????a v??? c??ng d??n v?? c??c quy???n h???p ph??p kh??c, tr??? v??? n??i c?? tr?? v?? kh??i ph???c c??ng ??n vi???c l??m.[6]L?? h??nh th???c kh???c ph???c ph??p l?? ph??? bi???n nh???t, b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i (compensation) l?? vi???c tr??? ti???n m???t cho n???n nh??n nh?? m???t c??ch th???a nh???n nh???ng h??nh ?????ng sai tr??i ???? x???y ra v?? xoa d???u c??c t???n th???t m?? n???n nh??n ???? ph???i ch???u ?????ng.[7]T??i h??a nh???p (rehabilitation) th?????ng bao g???m vi???c ch??m s??c v??? s???c kh???e v?? t??m l?? c??ng nh?? c??c d???ch v??? ph??p l??.[8] Vi???c kh???c ph???c v??? tinh th???n (satisfaction) bao g???m nhi???u kh??a c???nh, trong ???? c?? s??? th???a nh???n vi???c x??m ph???m, c??ng khai to??n b??? s??? th???t, ch??nh th???c xin l???i v?? nh???n c??c tr??ch nhi???m, v?? t?????ng ni???m c??c n???n nh??n.[9] Vi???c ?????m b???o kh??ng t??i x??m ph???m bao g???m vi???c ????a ra c??c bi???n ph??p nh???m ng??n ch???n s??? x??m ph???m t??i di???n.[10]
V???n ????? b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i kh??ng ph???i l?? m???i m??? trong lu???t nh??n quy???n v?? nh??n ?????o qu???c t???.[11] S??? ???ng h??? ban ?????u cho quy???n n??y trong lu???t qu???c t??? ???c?? th??? ???????c t??m th???y t???i ??i???u 3 c???a C??ng ?????c Hague IV n??m 1907 v??? c??c Lu???t l??? v?? T???p qu??n Chi???n tranh,???[12] m?? theo ???? b??n n??o vi ph???m C??ng ?????c n??y ???s??? ph???i b???i th?????ng.???[13] B???n Tuy??n ng??n To??n c???u v??? Nh??n quy???n, v???n c?? th??? coi l?? th??nh t???u l???n nh???t trong th??? k??? 20,[14] sau ???? ???? nh???n m???nh r???ng ???m???i ng?????i ?????u c?? quy???n nh???n ???????c bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c hi???u qu??? th??ng qua c??c to??n ??n qu???c gia c?? th???m quy???n ?????i v???i c??c h??nh ?????ng x??m h???i c??c quy???n c?? b???n c???a m??nh ???????c hi???n ph??p ho???c lu???t ph??p th???a nh???n.???[15] R???t nhi???u c??c ??i???u ?????c qu???c t??? kh??c c??ng ???? ???????c k?? k???t trong nh???ng th???p k??? sau ???? d???a tr??n Tuy??n ng??n To??n c???u v??? Nh??n quy???n, gi??p c???ng c??? c??c quy???n ???????c b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n b??? x??m ph???m quy???n con ng?????i. Trong s??? c??c ??i???u ?????c n??y c?? C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? Quy???n D??n s??? v?? Ch??nh tr???;[16] C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i; [17] C??ng ?????c Gi??-ne-v?? th??? 3;[18] v?? Ngh??? ?????nh th?? I c???a C??ng ?????c Gi??-ne-v??.[19] C??c c??ng c??? ph??p l?? khu v???c c??ng ch???a nh???ng ??i???u kho???n ????i h???i kh???c ph???c ph??p l?? cho v???n ????? x??m ph???m quy???n con ng?????i. ??i???u 13 trong C??ng ?????c Ch??u ??u v??? B???o v??? Quy???n con ng?????i v?? c??c Quy???n t??? do C?? b???n c??ng quy ?????nh quy???n c???a c??c n???n nh??n b??? x??m h???i nh??n quy???n ???????c ????i h???i m???t ph????ng ??n gi???i quy???t hi???u qu??? ???tr?????c m???t c?? quan ch???c tr??ch c???a qu???c gia d?? s??? x??m ph???m l?? do c??c c?? nh??n h??nh ?????ng theo th???m quy???n ch??nh th???c.??? [20] C??ng ?????c Ch??u M??? v??? Nh??n Quy???n c??ng nh???n r???ng m???i ng?????i ?????u c?? quy???n ???????c ????i b???i th?????ng ????? ch???ng l???i c??c h??nh ?????ng vi ph???m ?????n c??c quy???n c?? b???n c???a con ng?????i ???????c c??ng nh???n b???i hi???n ph??p hay ???c??c lu???t c???a nh?? n?????c hay theo quy ?????nh c???a C??ng ?????c.???[21]
Xem x??t v???n ????? th???u ????o s??? cho th???y r???ng Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia c?? ngh??a v??? ph??p l?? trong vi???c th???c hi???n b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i cho c??c n???n nh??n ph???i ch???u c??c t???i ??c d?? man c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ????? trong nh???ng n??m 1970. Hi???n nay, Campuchia l?? m???t b??n tham gia trong c??c ??i???u ?????c v?? quy???n con ng?????i ch??? y???u, [22] h???u h???t c??c ??i???u ?????c n??y ?????u quy ?????nh tr??ch nhi???m ph??p l?? ?????i v???i c??c nh?? n?????c th??nh vi??n nh???m ?????m b???o c??c ph????ng ??n hi???u qu??? trong vi???c b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n b??? x??m h???i nh??n quy???n d?????i m???i h??nh th???c. C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? Quy???n D??n s??? v?? Ch??nh tr??? c??ng k??u g???i c??c nh?? n?????c th??nh vi??n ???ph???i ?????m b???o r???ng b???t c??? ng?????i n??o m?? c??c quy???n hay s??? t??? do c???a h??? [nh?? ???????c th???a nh???n b???i C??ng ?????c] b??? x??m h???i s??? ???????c kh???c ph???c hi???u qu??? cho d?? h??nh ?????ng x??m h???i ???? ???????c th???c hi???n b???i c??c c?? nh??n ??ang h??nh ?????ng theo th???m quy???n ch??nh th???c???v?? ?????m b???o r???ng c??c c?? quan c?? th???m quy???n s??? th???c thi c??c bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c ???? sau khi ???????c ????a ra.???[23] ???y ban Nh??n quy???n[24] k???t lu???n r???ng ???n???u kh??ng c?? b???i th?????ng cho c??c c?? nh??n m?? quy???n theo C??ng ?????c c???a h??? ???? b??? x??m h???i th?? ngh??a v??? ph???i ????a ra m???t bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c hi???u qu??? v???n ????ng vai tr?? c???t l??i ?????i v???i hi???u l???c c???a ??i???u 2, kho???n 3, s??? kh??ng ???????c ho??n th??nh.???[25] Nh???ng bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c n??y c??ng t??nh ?????n t??nh tr???ng d??? b??? t???n th????ng ?????c bi???t c???a m???t s??? nh??m ng?????i nh???t ?????nh, ?????c bi???t l?? tr??? em.[26] Vi???c kh??ng tu??n th??? ngh??a v??? n??y c?? th??? ???b???n th??n n?? g??y n??n m???t h??nh th???c vi ph???m kh??c ?????i v???i C??ng ?????c???[27] v?? ???kh??ng th??? bi???n minh ???????c d???a v??o nh???ng c??n nh???c li??n quan ?????n ch??nh tr???, x?? h???i, v??n h??a v?? kinh t???.[28]
C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? X??a b??? m???i H??nh th???c Ph??n bi???t Ch???ng t???c c??ng y??u c???u c??c nh?? n?????c th??nh vi??n ????a ra bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c hi???u qu??? ?????i v???i c??c n???n nh??n c???a s??? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c.[29]C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i c??ng quy ?????nh ngh??a v??? c???a c??c nh?? n?????c th??nh vi??n ph???i ?????m b???o b???t k??? n???n nh??n n??o c???a tra t???n ph???i ???nh???n ???????c b???i th?????ng v?? h?????ng quy???n c?? th??? th???c thi ???????c ?????i v???i vi???c b???i th?????ng m???t c??ch th???a ????ng v?? c??ng b???ng.???[30] T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, ??i???u 39 trong C??ng ?????c v??? Quy???n Tr??? em c??ng y??u c???u t???t c??? c??c nh?? n?????c th??nh vi??n ph???i ???th???c hi???n m???i bi???n ph??p th??ch h???p ????? ?????m b???o s??? ph???c h???i v??? th??? ch???t c??ng nh?? t??m l?? v?? s??? t??i h??a nh???p x?? h???i c???a c??c n???n nh??n tr??? em??? b??? x??m h???i d?????i b???t c??? h??nh th???c n??o.[31]
C??c n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ????? bao g???m ph??? n??? v?? tr??? em, nh???ng ng?????i b??? t?????c quy???n ch??nh tr??? v?? d??n s???, nh???ng ng?????i ch???u tra ???n, v?? nh???ng ng?????i b??? ph??n bi???t gi???i t??nh v?? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c. C?? th??? th???y r???ng c??c n???n nh??n n??y n???m trong ph???m vi c??c ??i???u ?????c v??? quy???n con ng?????i m?? Campuchia ???? tham gia. C??c ti???n l??? t??? tr?????ng h???p c???a c??c n?????c nh?? ??o,[32] ?????c,[33] v?? Nh???t B???n[34] cho th???y Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia c?? ngh??a v??? xem x??t m???t c??ch nghi??m t??c kh??? n??ng b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a Khmer ?????, cho d?? t???i ??c n??y ???????c g??y ra b???i ch??nh quy???n c?? ???? b??? l???t ????? b???i ch??nh quy???n hi???n t???i.
D?? l???p lu???n tr??n ????y ????? c???p ?????n ngh??a v??? ph??p l?? c???a Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia trong vi???c ph???i b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a Khmer ????? th?? ch??nh c??c l??nh ?????o Khmer ????? m???i l?? ng?????i ch???u tr??ch nhi???m tr???c ti???p cho c??c t???i ??c m?? h??? ???? g??y ra. Trong b???n b??o c??o c???a Nh??m c??c Chuy??n gia v??? Campuchia[35] ???????c th??nh l???p chi???u theo Ngh??? Quy???t s??? 52/135 c???a ?????i h???i ?????ng Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, c??c th??? l??nh Khmer ????? s??? h???u m???t kh???i l?????ng t??i s???n l???n t??? khi h??? b??? l???t ?????.???[36] B???n b??o c??o ki???n ngh??? s??? d???ng kh???i t??i s???n c???a nh???ng l??nh ?????o Khmer ????? ???? b??? k???t ??n b???i t??a ??n l??m ngu???n kinh ph?? cho ho???t ?????ng ?????n b?? n???n nh??n, v?? r???ng ECCC n??n quy ?????nh kh??? n??ng b???i th?????ng c?? th??? c?? c???a c??c b??? c??o cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a h???.[37] ??? ????y c?? c??? c??c ph????ng ti???n ph??p l?? v?? n??ng l???c th???c t??? cho ph??p c??c n???n nh??n y??u c???u ???????c b???i th?????ng t??? nh???ng k??? x??m h???i nghi??m tr???ng nh??n quy???n c???a h??? trong nh???ng n??m 1970.
III. T??nh tr???ng kh??ng h??nh ?????ng
???? ba th???p k??? ???? tr??i qua t??? khi ch??? ????? di???t ch???ng Khmer ????? s???p ?????, nh??ng nh???ng n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? n??y v???n ch??a nh???n ???????c b???i th?????ng th???a ????ng.[38] C?? ngh??a r???ng nh???ng h??nh ?????ng sai tr??i v???n ch??a ho??n to??n ???????c s???a ch???a, v?? quy???n l???i c???a c??c n???n nh??n v???n ch??a ho??n to??n ???????c c??ng nh???n. C??c n???n nh??n ???? ch??? ???????c b???i th?????ng t??? r???t nhi???u n??m nay. C??c t??? ch???c phi ch??nh ph??? v??? quy???n con ng?????i ???? quan t??m ?????n v???n ????? n??y nh??ng ho???t ?????ng v?? ??p l???c c???a h??? ch??a ????? m???nh ????? t???o n??n thay ?????i th???c s???. Qu??? T??n th??c c???a Li??n H???p Qu???c (d??ng ????? chi cho vi???c thi???t l???p v?? ho???t ?????ng c???a c??c t??a ??n kh??c nhau) ???? kh??ng th??nh c??ng trong vi???c g??y qu??? d??ng cho vi???c b???i th?????ng.[39] Khi Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v?? Campuchia ????m ph??n th???a thu???n th??nh l???p ECCC, ng?????i ta ???? hi v???ng r???ng b???n th???a thu???n n??y s??? bao g???m c??? nh???ng ??i???u kho???n v??? vi???c b???i th?????ng. Tuy nhi??n, trong m???t b?????c ??i ???????c T??? ch???c ??n x?? Th??? gi???i mi??u t??? nh?? l?? ???m???t b?????c th???t l??i l???n ?????i v???i Quy ch??? Rome (v??? T??a ??n H??nh s??? Qu???c t???)???,[40] Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v?? ch??nh ph??? Campuchia ???? ????a ra m???t b???n th???a thu???n kh??ng c?? nh???ng ??i???u kho???n n??i tr??n.
B???n th???a thu???n n??y ???? d???n ?????n vi???c ban h??nh Lu???t Th??nh l???p ECCC, trong ???? kh??ng ????? c???p g?? c??? th??? ?????n vi???c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i. D?? lu???t n??y gi???i h???n c??c h??nh th???c tr???ng ph???t ch??? c?? vi???c b??? t??,[41] n?? v???n cho ph??p t???ch thu c??c t??i s???n c?? nh??n, ti???n, v?? t??i s???n th???c c?? ???????c m???t c??ch b???t h???p ph??p b???i ng?????i b??? k???t ??n.[42] Tuy nhi??n, Lu???t n??y quy ?????nh r???ng c??c t??i s???n b??? t???ch thu s??? ph???i ???????c tr??? l???i cho ch??nh ph??? ch??? kh??ng ph???i cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ?????.[43] Quy ch??? N???i b??? c???a ECCC l?? t??i li???u duy nh???t t??? b???n th???a thu???n n??y ????? c???p m???t c??ch c??? th??? v???n ????? b???i th?????ng, nh??ng n?? l???i quy ?????nh r???ng vi???c b???i th?????ng ch??? n??n ???????c th???c hi???n v???i m???t s??? nh??m n???n nh??n c??? th??? (ngh??a l?? c??c b??n d??n s???), v?? ch??? d?????i h??nh th???c ?????o ?????c ho???c t?????ng tr??ng m?? th??i.[44]
V???y t???i sao Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia l???i m???t nhi???u th???i gian nh?? v???y m???i nh???n ra quy???n l???i c???a c??ng d??n n?????c m??nh? Sao v???n ????? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ????? l???i nh???n ???????c ??t s??? quan t??m nh?? v???y c???a c???ng ?????ng th??? gi???i? C?? th??? gi???i th??ch t??nh tr???ng n??y n??y nh?? sau:
Th??? nh???t, v???n ????? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n b??? x??m h???i nh??n quy???n nh??n chung ch??? ???????c ch?? ?? h??n sau khi Chi???n tranh L???nh k???t th??c.[45] V???i Campuchia, ng?????i ta ch??? y???u t???p trung v??o vi???c ??i???u tra s??? th???t v?? t??m ki???m c??ng l?? v?? ????y ???????c coi l?? nh???ng y??u c???u ti??n quy???t ????? ti???n h??nh ho???t ?????ng b???i th?????ng. [46]
Th??? hai, sau s??? s???p ????? c???a ch??? ????? Khmer ?????, n???n ch??nh tr??? Campuchia r???t b???t ???n cho t???i cu???i nh???ng n??m 1990. T??? n??m 1979 ?????n n??m 1991, s??? chi???m ????ng c???a Vi???t Nam v?? cu???c tranh lu???n xem ai s??? l?? ?????i di???n h???p ph??p cho Campuchia thu h??t s??? quan t??m ch??nh, g???t c??c th???o lu???n v??? v???n ????? b???i th?????ng sang m???t b??n.[47] Sau ????, t??? n??m 1991 ?????n n??m 1997, s??? quan t??m trong n?????c c??ng nh?? qu???c t??? l???i t???p trung v??o cu???c tranh gi??nh quy???n l???c n???i b??? ??? n?????c n??y.[48] Ch??? ?????n n??m 1997, ngay tr?????c khi Campuchia tr??? th??nh th??nh vi??n ch??nh th???c c???a ASEAN[49] th?? t??nh h??nh ch??nh tr??? ??? n?????c n??y m???i ???n ?????nh. L??c ????, Li??n Hi???p Qu???c ???? nh???n ???????c y??u c???u tr??? gi??p t??? Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia trong vi???c t??? ch???c m???t quy tr??nh x??t x??? Khmer ?????.[50] T??? ????, ng?????i ta l???i ch??? y???u t???p trung v??o vi???c kh???i t???, kh??ng x???p vi???c b???i th?????ng l??n ngang h??ng.[51]
Th??? ba, c?? s??? thi???u quan t??m v??? m???t ch??nh tr??? c???a Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia li??n quan ?????n ngh??a v??? b???i th?????ng cho n???n nh??n c???a Khmer ?????. D?? ch??? ????? n??y ???? b??? l???t ?????, m???t s??? ng?????i li??n quan ?????n ch??? ????? ???? v???n c??n n???m quy???n.[52] T??nh h??nh n??y l??m cho ch??nh quy???n Campuchia mi???n c?????ng trong vi???c truy c???u tr??ch nhi???m c???a t???t c??? nh???ng k??? ph???m t???i c??ng nh?? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n trong cu???c th???m s??t th???i k??? nh???ng n??m 1970.
Th??? t??, c???ng ?????ng th??? gi???i v?? c??c t??? ch???c phi ch??nh ph??? v???n ch??a thay ?????i ???????c t??nh tr???ng b???t ?????ng hi???n nay v?? n??ng cao nh???n th???c m???t c??ch hi???u qu???. Th???m ch?? ch??nh c??c n???n nh??n c??ng kh??ng ph???i lu??n lu??n bi???t ???????c quy???n l???i c???a m??nh.[53]
??i???u cu???i c??ng ch??nh l?? nh???ng g?? m?? J. Angelo Corlett g???i l?? ???S??? b??c b??? v?? ph???c t???p l???ch s??????[54] ?????i v???i m???t tr?????ng h???p ???? di???n ra t??? l??u trong l???ch s???. Theo Corlett, l???ch s??? ch???a ?????ng qu?? nhi???u t??nh hu???ng ph???c t???p ?????n m???c kh??ng th??? x??c ?????nh ???????c t???t c??? m???i s??? b???t c??ng c???n ph???i ???????c b???i th?????ng v?? gi???i quy???t m???t c??ch hi???u qu???.[55] ?????i v???i Campuchia, sau m???t ph???n t?? th??? k???, d?????ng nh?? vi???c ??o ?????m nh???ng thi???t h???i c???a c??c n???n nh??n m???t c??ch chi ti???t theo t???ng tr?????ng h???p l?? kh??ng kh??? thi v?? vi???c kh??i ph???c quy???n l???i c???a c??c n???n nh??n b??? th????ng ???? l??u c??ng h???t s???c t???n k??m.[56] V?? vi???c thuy???t ph???c c??c th??? h??? sau n??y r???ng h??? ph???i ch???u m???t kho???n n??? v???i ??ng b?? c???a nh???ng ng?????i ????i b???i th?????ng l?? m???t vi???c h???t s???c kh?? kh??n.[57]
B???t ch???p nh???ng r??o c???n n??y, v???n ????? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n b??? x??m h???i nh??n quy???n ??? Campuchia c??ng kh??ng n??n b??? tr?? ho??n m??i m??i. N???u vi???c ??i???u tra, th???a nh???n v?? truy t??? l?? ??i???u ki???n ti??n quy???t trong vi???c b???i th?????ng, th?? gi??? ????y, khi m?? t???t c??? c??c kh??a c???nh kh??c li??n quan ?????n c??ng l?? ??ang ???????c th???c hi???n, ch??nh l?? l??c ti???n t???i m???c ti??u b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i. D?? b???n Th???a thu???n th??nh l???p ECCC kh??ng c?? ??i???u kho???n n??o li??n quan ?????n vi???c b???i th?????ng, v???n c?? m???t n???n t???ng ph??p l?? cho vi???c b???i th?????ng nh?? v???y ???????c quy ?????nh trong c??c ??i???u ?????c m?? Campuchia ???? tham gia c??ng nh?? trong ch??nh n???i lu???t c???a Campuchia. D???a theo lu???t ph??p hi???n h??nh c???a Campuchia, trong c??c v??? ??n h??nh s???, c??c n???n nh??n c?? th??? ????i b???i th?????ng cho nh???ng thi???t h???i m?? h??? ph???i ch???u do c??c t???i ph???m ??ang b??? x??t x??? g??y ra,[58]v?? c??c Quy ch??? N???i b??? c???a ECCC c??ng th???a nh???n c??c h??nh th???c b???i th?????ng nh???t ?????nh.[59] V???n ????? ??? ????y ch??nh l?? ngh?? ra c??c c??ch th???c th???c hi???n ngh??a v??? b???i th?????ng kh??? thi v?? hi???u qu???. Tr??n tinh th???n ????, ph???n ti???p theo s??? th???o lu???n m???t s??? ph????ng ??n kh??? thi v??? c??ch th???c c??c n???n nh??n c???a ch??? ????? di???t ch???ng ??? Campuchia n??n ???????c b???i th?????ng nh?? th??? n??o.
IV. Nh???ng ?????i t?????ng c?? th??? nh???n b???i th?????ng
Th??ch th???c ?????u ti??n l?? l??m sao x??c ?????nh ???????c ?????i t?????ng n??o th??ch h???p cho vi???c ????i b???i th?????ng trong tr?????ng h???p n??y, do nhi???u n???n nh??n tr???c ti???p ???? ch???t. Trong s??? 2 tri???u ng?????i b??? gi???t trong c??c cu???c th???m s??t, c?? r???t nhi???u ng?????i c?? con ch??u c??n s???ng. V???y c??u h???i ?????t ra ??? ????y l?? li???u con ch??u h??? c?? ???????c nh???n b???i th?????ng hay kh??ng? V?? li???u gia ????nh c???a nh???ng ng?????i c??n s???ng c?? ???????c b???i th?????ng kh??ng? Nh???ng c??u h???i n??y ch??? c?? th??? ???????c tr??? l???i t??y thu???c v??o t???ng tr?????ng h???p c??? th???. Tuy nhi??n, r???t cu???c c???n ph???i c?? m???t khu??n kh??? chung ????? x??c ?????nh nh???ng ?????i t?????ng ???????c b???i th?????ng tr?????c khi ti???n h??nh v???i s??? l?????ng kh???ng l??? nh???ng ng?????i ????i b???i th?????ng. May m???n sao, c?? r???t nhi???u ngu???n lu???t qu???c t??? c?? th??? h??? tr??? vi???c th??nh l???p khu??n kh??? chung n??y. V?? d???, ??i???u 14 trong C??ng ?????c Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v??? ch???ng Tra t???n quy ?????nh r???ng: ???khi m???t n???n nh??n b??? ch???t b???i h??nh ?????ng tra t???n, nh???ng ng?????i ph??? thu???c v??o ng?????i ???? s??? ???????c h?????ng b???i th?????ng.???[60] Nh?? ???y ban Ch??u ??u v??? Quy???n con ng?????i trong v??? X v?? C???ng h??a Li??n bang ?????c ???? x??c ?????nh: t??? ???n???n nh??n??? bao g???m ???kh??ng ch??? c??c n???n nh??n tr???c ti???p b??? x??m h???i m?? c??? nh???ng ng?????i gi??n ti???p ph???i ch???u c??c ?????nh ki???n do h???u qu??? c???a s??? x??m h???i ???? ho???c nh???ng ng?????i c?? l???i ??ch c?? nh??n x??c ????ng trong vi???c ?????m b???o ch???m d???t s??? x??m h???i ????.???[61] T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, ???y ban Nh??n quy???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c c??ng k???t lu???n r???ng n???n nh??n c?? th??? bao g???m c??? c??c th??nh vi??n gia ????nh c???a nh???ng ng?????i tr???c ti???p b??? x??m h???i.???[62] Nh???ng quy???t ?????nh g???n ????y nh???t c???a T??a ??n li??n Ch??u M??? v??? Nh??n quy???n c??ng ch??? r??: khi n???n nh??n ???? ch???t, ng?????i th??n c???a h??? ???????c h?????ng ?????n b??; v?? n???u kh??ng c?? b???ng ch???ng v??? m???i quan h??? gia ????nh, c??c th??nh vi??n gia ????nh c?? th???i gian hai n??m sau ph??n quy???t ????? ch???ng minh m???i quan h??? gia ????nh c???a m??nh ????? ???????c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i.[63] Tr?????c ti??n ph???i thi???t l???p m???t khu??n kh??? chung, trong ???? c??c th??nh vi??n trong gia ????nh t???t c??? n???n nh??n ?????u ???????c ph??p ????i b???i th?????ng, v?? trong khu??n kh??? n??y ph???i c?? c??c bi???n ph??p c??? th??? ????a ra cho t???ng tr?????ng h???p.
Tuy nhi??n, v???n c??n m???t v???n ????? li??n quan ?????n ph???m vi c???a kh??i ni???m ???gia ????nh???. ????? gi???i quy???t v???n ????? n??y, c???n ph???i xem x??t ph???m vi ???????c ??p d???ng trong nh???ng tr?????ng h???p kh??c.  Trong v??? Loayza Tomayo v?? Peru, T??a ??n li??n Ch??u M??? v??? Nh??n quy???n ???? coi kh??i ni???m ???th??nh vi??n gia ????nh??? ???????c hi???u l?? bao g???m t???t c??? nh???ng ng?????i c?? quan h??? m???t thi???t nh?? con c??i, cha m??? v?? anh ch??? em ru???t c???a n???n nh??n.[64]T????ng t??? nh?? v???y, trong v??? Blake v?? Guatemala, T??a ??n quy???t ?????nh r???ng t???t c??? 4 th??nh vi??n trong gia ????nh ng?????i b??? m???t t??ch, g???m cha m??? v?? hai anh em trai c???a n???n nh??n, ?????u b??? ???nh h?????ng tr???c ti???p t??? c??i ch???t v?? s??? m???t t??ch c???a Blake.[65] Trong v??? Su??rez Rosero v?? Ecuador  v??  B??maca Vel??squez v?? Guatemala, T??a ??n c??ng ???? y??u c???u c??c nh?? n?????c li??n quan ph???i b???i th?????ng cho v???/ qu??? ph??? v?? con c??i c???a c??c n???n nh??n.[66] Trong c??c tr?????ng h???p di???n ra sau cu???c Chi???n tranh V??ng V???nh n??m 1990, H???i ?????ng B???i th?????ng c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c x??c ?????nh r???ng v???, ch???ng v?? con c??i ho???c cha m??? c???a n???n nh??n c?? th??? ???????c xem l?? nh???ng ?????i t?????ng ???????c b???i th?????ng h???p ph??p cho nh???ng g?? h??? ph???i ch???u ?????ng trong cu???c x??m l?????c v?? chi???m ????ng b???t h???p ph??p c???a Iraq v??o Kuwait th??ng 8 n??m 1990.[67] C??c ti???n l??? t??? nh???ng tr?????ng h???p tr??n g???i n??n c??u tr??? l???i cho vi???c nh???ng ai c?? th??? y??u c???u b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i trong tr?????ng h???p ??? Campuchia. Th??? nh???t, n???n nh??n tr???c ti???p c???a nh???ng h??nh ?????ng t??n b???o ph???i ???????c h?????ng b???i th?????ng. Th??? hai, ng?????i th??n c???a c??c n???n nh??n b??? gi???t trong th???i k??? nh???ng n??m 1970 ho???c nh???ng ng?????i ???? ch???t t??? ???? ?????n nay, bao g???m cha m???, v???, ch???ng, anh ch??? em ru???t v?? con c??i c???a nh???ng n???n nh??n ???? c??ng ph???i ???????c b???i th????ng. D???a tr??n c??ch ti???p c???n chung ????, gi???i ph??p b???i th?????ng c?? th??? ???????c x??c ?????nh trong t???ng tr?????ng h???p c??? th???.
V. Nh???ng h??nh th???c b???i th?????ng kh??? d?? nh???t
VI. C??ch th???c hi???n vi???c b???i th?????ng 
VII. K???t lu???n
Download to??n b??? n???i dung v??n b???n t???i ????y: Boi thuong nan nhan xam pham nhan quyen Campuchia.pdf

[1] Xem, v?? d???, B??o c??o c???a nh??m c??c chuy??n gia v??? Campuchia d???a theo Ngh??? quy???t c???a ?????i h???i ?????ng s??? 52/135, Ph???c l???c,  ???? 16, 19, 20, 30, 56, U.N. Doc. A/53/850- S/1999/231 (15.3.1999) [sau ????y g???i t???t l?? B??o c??o c???a nh??m chuy??n gia] (b??n v??? v???n ????? ng?????i d??n b??? ??p ph???i di d???i kh???i th??nh ph??? v?? c??c l???m d???ng quy???n con ng?????i kh??c); Katheryn M. Klein, Bringing the Khmer Rouge to Justice: The Challenges and Risks Facing the Joint Tribunal in Cambodia, 4 NW. J. INT???L HUM. RTS. 549, 549, 553-54 (2006) (ghi l???i vi???c di d???i v?? lao ?????ng c?????ng b???c).
[2] ECCC, c??n ???????c g???i l?? T??a ??n Campuchia, l?? m???t t??a ??n chung ???????c th??nh l???p b???i m???t hi???p ?????nh gi???a Li??n H???p Qu???c v?? Campuchia v???i m???c ti??u x??t x??? c??c t???i ??c d?????i ch??? ????? Khmer ????? t??? n??m 1975 ?????n n??m 1979. Xem website c???a ECCC: http://www.eccc.gov.kh/english (truy c???p l???n cu???i 28.11.2009) ????? bi???t th??m th??ng tin v??? ECCC.
[3] B???ng Ch??? d???n v?? Nguy??n t???c C?? b???n c???a Li??n H???p Qu???c v??? Quy???n ???????c B???i th?????ng c???a c??c N???n nh??n b??? X??m ph???m Nh??n quy???n Nghi??m tr???ng v?? Lu???t Nh??n ?????o qu???c t???, G.A. Res. 60/147, Annex, ?? 18, U.N. Doc. A/RES/60/147 (2005)  [sau ????y g???i t???t l?? Nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c].
[4]  Stef Vandeginste, Reparation, trong RECONCILIATION AFTER VIOLENT CONFLICT: A HANDBOOK 145, 145 (David Bloomfield et al. eds., 2003).
[5] Pablo de Greiff, Justice and Reparations, trong THE HANDBOOK OF REPARATIONS 451, 452 (Pablo de Greiff ed., 2006).
[6] Nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, ch?? th??ch 3 ??? tr??n, ?? 19.
[7] Nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, ch?? th??ch 3 ??? tr??n, ?? 20, de Greiff, ch?? th??ch 5 ??? tr??n, trang 452; Dinah L. Shelton, Reparations for Victims of International Crimes, trong INTERNATIONAL CRIMES, PEACE, AND HUMAN RIGHTS: THE ROLE OF THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT 137, 139-40 (Dinah Shelton ed., 2000).
[8] Nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, ch?? th??ch 3 ??? tr??n, ?? 21; de Greiff, ch?? th??ch 5 ??? tr??n, trang 452.
[9] Nh???ng nguy??n t???c c?? b???n c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, ch?? th??ch 3 ??? tr??n, ?? 22.
[10] Nh?? tr??n, ch?? th??ch 3 ??? tr??n, ?? 23.
[11] V?? d???, xem  Paul M. Hughes, Rectification and Reparation: What Does Citizen Responsibility Require?, 35 J. SOC. PHIL. 244, 245 (2004) (cho r???ng c??c th???o lu???n v??? vi???c b???i th?????ng ???? l?? m???t v???n ????? n???i b???t trong vi???c x??? l?? c??c t???i ??c t??n b???o trong qu?? kh???).
[12] Liesbeth Zegveld, Remedies for Victims of Violations of International Humanitarian Law, 85 INT???L REV. RED CROSS 497, 506 (2003).
[13] C??ng ?????c v??? Lu???t l??? v?? T???p qu??n Chi???n tranh tr??n ?????t li???n, ??i???u 3, ng??y 18.10.1907, 36 Stat. 2277, 1 Bevans 631.
[14] Xem PAUL GORDON LAUREN, THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS: VISIONS SEEN 199-270 (2d ed. 2003) (ghi l???i chi ti???t b???i c???nh l???ch s??? v?? t??c ?????ng c???a Tuy??n ng??n to??n c???u v??? Nh??n quy???n).
[15] Tuy??n ng??n to??n c???u v??? Nh??n quy???n, G.A. Res. 217A, art. 8, U.N. GAOR, 3d Sess., 1st plen. mtg., trang 71, 73, U.N. Doc A/810 (10.12.1948) .
[16] C??ng ?????c qu???c t??? v??? Quy???n D??n s??? v?? Ch??nh tr???, ??i???u 2(3) v?? 9(5), ng??y 16.12.1966 [sau ????y g???i t???t l?? ICCPR]
[17] C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i, ??i???u 14 ng??y 10.12.1984, 1465 U.N.T.S. 85.
[18] C??ng ?????c Gi??-ne-v?? li??n quan ?????n vi???c ?????i x??? v???i t?? nh??n chi???n tranh, ??i???u 68, ng??y 12.8.1949, 75 U.N.T.S. 135.
[19] Ngh??? ?????nh th?? b??? sung C??ng ?????c Gi??-ne-v?? ng??y 12.8.1949, v?? Ngh??? ?????nh th?? li??n quan ?????n vi???c B???o v??? n???n nh??n c???a c??c xung ?????t v?? trang qu???c t??? (Ngh??? ?????nh th?? 1) ??i???u 91, ng??y 8.6.1977, 1125 U.N.T.S. 3.
[20] C??ng ?????c B???o v??? Nh??n quy???n v?? Quy???n T??? do C?? b???n, ??i???u 13, ng??y 4.11.1950, 213 U.N.T.S. 222, s???a ?????i b???i Ngh??? ?????nh th?? s??? 3, 5, 8 11, c?? hi???u l???c l???n l?????t v??o ng??y21.9.1970, 20.12.1971, 1.1.1990, v?? 1.11.1998.
[21] American Convention on Human Rights, Nov. 22, 1969, O.A.S. Treaty Series No. 36, 1144 U.N.T.S. 123, in l???i trongBasic Documents Pertaining to Human Rights in the Inter-American System, OEA/Ser.L.V/JI.82 doc.6 rev. 1 at 25 (1992).  Xem th??m African (Banjul) Charter on Human and Peoples??? Rights, June 27, 1981, OAU Doc. CAB/LEG/67/3 rev. 5, 21 I.L.M. 58 (1982) (quy ?????nh r???ng m???i ng?????i ?????u c?? quy???n khi???u n???i l??n c??c c?? quan qu???c gia c?? th???m quy???n ch???ng l???i c??c h??nh ?????ng x??m h???i ?????n c??c quy???n c?? b???n c???a h??? ???????c th???a nh???n trong c??c c??ng ?????c, lu???t, c??c quy ?????nh v?? t???p qu??n c?? hi???u l???c).
[22] ??i???u ng???c nhi??n v???i nhi???u ng?????i b??n ngo??i l?? Campuchia l?? th??nh vi??n c???a nhi???u ??i???u ?????c qu???c t??? ch??? ch???t v??? nh??n quy???n, trong ???? c?? ICCPR; C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? quy???n Kinh t???, X?? h???i v?? V??n h??a; C??ng ?????c v??? Ng??n ng???a v?? Tr???ng ph???t T???i ??c Di???t ch???ng, C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? X??a b??? m???i H??nh th???c Ph??n bi???t Ch???ng t???c; C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i; C??ng ?????c v??? Quy???n Tr??? em; C??ng ?????c v??? Lo???i tr??? m???i H??nh th???c Ph??n bi???t ch???ng l???i Ph??? n???; Ngh??? ?????nh th?? kh??ng b???t bu???c c???a C??ng ?????c v??? Lo???i tr??? m???i H??nh th???c Ph??n bi???t ch???ng l???i Ph??? n???; Ngh??? ?????nh th?? kh??ng b???t bu???c c???a C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i; Ngh??? ?????nh th?? kh??ng b???t bu???c c???a C??ng ?????c v??? Quy???n Tr??? em v??? s??? tham gia c???a tr??? em trong c??c cu???c xung ?????t v?? trang; Ngh??? ?????nh th?? kh??ng b???t bu???c c???a C??ng ?????c v??? Quy???n Tr??? em v??? bu??n b??n tr??? em, m???i d??m v?? khi??u d??m tr??? em. ????? bi???t th??m v??? t??nh tr???ng tham gia c??c ??i???u ?????c qu???c t??? ch??? ch???t v??? nh??n quy???n c???a Campuchia hi???n nay, xem danh s??ch c??c ??i???u ?????c c???a D??? li???u ??i???u ?????c Li??n Hi???p Qu???c, website: http://treaties.un.org/pages/Treaties.aspx?id=4&subid=A&lang=cn(truy c???p ng??y 28.10.2009)
[23] ICCPR, ch?? th??ch 16 ??? tr??n, ??i???u 2(3).
[24] Xem V??n ph??ng Cao ???y Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v??? Nh??n quy???n, ???y ban Nh??n quy???n ??? C??c th??nh vi??n, http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrc/members.htm (truy c???p l???n cu???i ng??y 28.10.2009) (??????y ban Nh??n quy???n g???m 18 chuy??n gia ?????c l???p, h??? l?? nh???ng ng?????i c?? ph???m ch???t ?????o ?????c cao v?? c?? n??ng l???c ???????c th???a nh???n trong l??nh v???c nh??n quy???n.???). ???y ban m???i n??m h???p 3 l???n, m???i l???n k??o d??i 3 tu???n t???i Gi??-ne-v?? ho???c New York. V??n ph??ng Cao ???y Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v??? Nh??n quy???n, ???y ban Nh??n quy???n, http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/hrc (truy c???p l???n cu???i ng??y 28.10.2009)
[25] ???y ban Nh??n quy???n, General Comment No. 31: The Nature of the General Legal Obligation Imposed on States Parties to the Covenant, ?? 16, U.N. Doc. CCPR/C/21/Rev.1/Add. 13 (29.3.2004).
[26]Nh?? tr??n, ?? 15.
[27] Nh?? tr??n.
[28] Nh?? tr??n, ?? 14.
[29] Xem, v?? d??? nh??, C??ng ?????c Qu???c t??? v??? X??a b??? m???i H??nh th???c Ph??n bi???t Ch???ng t???c, ??i???u 6, ng??y 21.12.1965, 660 U.N.T.S. 195, 199 (y??u c???u c??c qu???c gia th??nh vi??n ph???i ?????m b???o c??c bi???n ph??p ph??ng ch???ng hi???u qu??? s??? ph??n bi???t ch???ng t???c ?????i v???i m???i c??ng d??n trong quy???n t??i ph??n c???a nh?? n?????c).
[30] C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i, ch?? th??ch 17 ??? tr??n, ??i???u 14 (1).
[31] C??ng ?????c v??? Quy???n Tr??? em, ??i???u 39, ng??y 20.11.1989, 1557 U.N.T.S. 3, 56.
[32] Xem Max du Plessis, Historical Injustice and International Law: An Exploratory Discussion of Reparation for Slavery, 25 HUM. RTS. Q. 624, 639 (2003) (????? c???p ?????n vi???c ??o chi tr??? 25 tri???u ???? la M??? ????? b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n Holocaust s???ng s??t v??o n??m 1990).
[33] Xem Ariel Colonomos & Andrea Armstrong, German Reparations to the Jews After World War II: A Turning Point in the History of Reparations (?????c t??nh ?????c ???? b???i th?????ng t???ng c???ng 61,5 t??? ???? la M??? cho c??c n???n nh??n d?????i ch??? ????? ?????c Qu???c x?? trong giai ??o???n 1965-2001); trong THE HANDBOOK OF REPARATIONS, ch?? th??ch 5 ??? tr??n, trang 390, 408.
[34]  Xem Joseph P. Nearey, Seeking Reparations in the New Millennium: Will Japan Compensate the ???Comfort Women??? of World War II?, 15 TEMP. INT???L L.J. 121, 140 (2001) (n??i ?????n qu??? t?? nh??n do ch??nh ph??? kh???i t???o g???m 10 tri???u ???? la M??? ????? kh???c ph???c c??c sai tr??i ?????i v???i c??c ph??? n??? gi???i khu??y tr?????c ????y.)
[35] Xem Situation of Human Rights in Cambodia, G.A. Res. 52/135, ?? 2, U.N. Doc. A/Res/52/135 (1998) (y??u c???u T???ng th?? k?? xem x??t h??? tr??? Ch??nh ph??? Campuchia b???ng vi???c b??? nhi???m m???t nh??m chuy??n gia). T???ng th?? k?? Li??n Hi???p Qu???c Kofi Annan ???? b??? nhi???m m???t nh??m 3 chuy??n gia theo Ngh??? quy???t 52/135 ????? ????nh gi?? c??c b???ng ch???ng hi???n c?? v?? x??c ?????nh b???n ch???t t???i ??c c???a c??c th??? l??nh Khmer ????; v?? t??m hi???u c??c l???a ch???n ph??p l?? ????? ????a h??? ra tr?????c c??ng l??.  B??o c??o c???a Nh??m c??c chuy??n gia, ch?? th??ch 1 ??? tr??n.
[36] Nh?? tr??n, ?? s??? 211.
[37] Nh?? tr??n, ?? 212 (???Kh??? n??ng y??u c???u c??c b??? c??o b???i th?????ng cho n???n nh??n ???????c quy ?????nh trong quy ch??? c???a t??a ??n ?????c bi???t, m???i ????y ???????c th???a nh???n trong ?????nh ?????c T??a ??n H??nh s??? Qu???c t???.???). B???n b??o c??o c??ng ki???n ngh??? r???ng ???b???t c??? t??a ??n n??o ?????u quy ?????nh kh??? n??ng b??? c??o ph???i b???i th?????ng cho n???n nh??n??? [v??] c??c nh?? n?????c n??i c?? t??i s???n m?? c??c th??? l??nh Khmer ????? ???? c?? ???????c m???t c??ch b???t h???p ph??p n??n xem x??t kh??? n??ng b???i th?????ng cho c??c n???n nh??n t??? c??c t??i s???n n??y.??? Nh?? tr??n.
[38] Xem Klein, ch?? th??ch 1 ??? tr??n, trang 549.
[39] Gregory H. Stanton, Perfection Is the Enemy of Justice, BANGKOK POST, June 1, 2003  (????p l???i s??? ch??? tr??ch c???a T??? ch???c ??n x?? Qu???c t??? v??? d??? th???o th???a thu???n gi???a Campuchia v?? Li??n Hi???p Qu???c).
[40] Nh?? tr??n.
[41] Lu???t th??nh l???p ECCC, ??i???u 38, website: http://www.eccc.gov.kh/english/cabinet/law/4/KR_law_as_amended_27_Oct_2004_Eng.pdf (truy c???p 28.10.2009)
[42] Nh?? tr??n, ??i???u 39.
[43] Nh?? tr??n.
[44] Quy ?????nh n???i b??? c???a ECCC, quy ?????nh s??? 23 (s???a ?????i ng??y 11.9.2009), ????ng tr??n website: http://www.eccc.gov.kh/english/cabine/fileUpload/121/IRv4-EN.pdf(truy c???p ng??y 28.10.2009)
[45] Richard Falk, Reparations, International Law, and Global Justice: A New Frontier, trong THE HANDBOOK OF REPARATIONS, ch?? th??ch 5 ??? tr??n, trang 478-479.
[46] Xem Stef Vandeginste, A Truth and Reconciliation Approach to the Genocide and Crimes Against Humanity in Rwanda 9 (May 1998) (Inst. of Dev. Policy & Mgmt., Univ. of Antwerp Working Paper).
[47] ?????c Scott Luftglass, Crossroads in Cambodia: The United Nation???s Responsibility to Withdraw Involvement from the Establishment of a Cambodian Tribunal to Prosecute the Khmer Rouge, 90 VA. L. REV. 893, 903 (2004)  (gi???i th??ch vi???c c???ng ?????ng th??? gi???i ch??? y???u ch?? ?? ?????n vi???c ?????m b???o ???n ?????nh c???a Campuchia sau khi ch???m d???t ch??? ????? Khmer ?????).
[48] ?????c Vannath Chea, Reconciliation in Cambodia: Politics, Culture and Religion (k??? l???i ti???n tr??nh h??a b??nh v???i r???t nhi???u th??? l???c ch??nh tr??? tranh gi??nh quy???n l???c v???i nhau) trong RECONCILIATION AFTER VIOLENT CONFLICT: A HANDBOOK, ch?? th??ch 4 ??? tr??n, trang 49, 50.
[49] ?????c DAVID W. ROBERTS, POLITICAL TRANSITION IN CAMBODIA, 1991-99: POWER, ELITISM, AND DEMOCRACY 168-69 (2001) (th???o lu???n v???n ????? ???n ?????nh ???????c ph???c h???i nh?? th??? n??o sau nh???ng s??? ki???n n??m 1997). Xem th??m Seth Mydans, Fragile Stability Slowly Emerges in Cambodia, N.Y. TIMEs, ng??y 25.6. 2000, trang 1 (mi??u t??? nh???ng di???n bi???n ??? Campuchia cho th???y n?? ??ang ch???ng ki???n ???m???t k??? nguy??n m???i c???a h??a b??nh v?? ???n ?????nh ch??nh tr??????.)
[50] Lufglass, ch?? th??ch 47 ??? tr??n, trang 906 v?? Klein, ch?? th??ch 1 ??? tr??n, trang 554, 555.
[51] Sau 5 n??m ????m ph??n k??o d??i v?? kh?? kh??n, trong ???? c?? 6 th??ng b??? t???c v?? Li??n Hi???p Qu???c r??t kh???i b??n ????m ph??n, cu???i c??ng m???t th???a thu???n c??ng ???????c ????a ra v??o n??m 2003, ch?? tr???ng ?????n vi???c x??t x??? nh??m th??? l??nh Khmer ?????, kh??ng nh???c g?? ?????n v???n ????? b???i th?????ng. ?????c th??m Lufglass, ch?? th??ch 47 ??? tr??n, trang 906-917 (n??i v??? n??? l???c c???a Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v?? Campuchia trong vi???c th??nh l???p m???t t??a ??n).
[52] Xem Klein, ch?? th??ch 1 ??? tr??n, trang 554. (l???y v?? d??? v??? vi???c Hun Sen, m???t c???u Ngo???i tr?????ng c???a Khmer ?????, hi???n nay l?? Th??? t?????ng Campuchia, ch??nh ??ng ???? b???t h???p t??c trong qu?? tr??nh th????ng l?????ng th??nh l???p t??a ??n chung).
[53] Trong m???t cu???c kh???o s??t v??? th??i ????? c???a ng?????i d??n Campuchia do Trung t??m Nh??n quy???n, ??H California, Berkeley th???c hi???n, d?? 9/10 s??? ng?????i n??i r???ng c??c n???n nh??n ph???i ???????c b???i th?????ng nh??ng 39% s??? ng?????i l???i mu???n d??ng ph????ng ph??p tr???ng ph???t m?? ch??? c?? 5% s??? ng?????i cho r???ng n??n tha th??? b???ng vi???c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i. PHUONG PHAM ET AL., So WE WILL NEVER FORGET: A POPULATION-BASED SURVEY ON ATTITUDES ABOUT SOCIAL RECONSTRUCTION AND THE EXTRAORDINARY CHAMBERS IN THE COURTS OF CAMBODIA 29-30 (2009). Nh???ng ph???n h???i n??y cho th???y nh???ng ng?????i tham gia kh???o s??t kh??ng ??u ti??n hay quan t??m ?????n quy???n ???????c b???i th?????ng.
[54] J. ANGELO CORLETT, RESPONSIBILITY AND PUNISHMENT 190 (3d ed. 2006).
[55] Nh?? tr??n.
[56] Falk, ch?? th??ch 45 ??? tr??n, trang 495.
[57] Corlett, ch?? th??ch 543, trang 190-191.
[58] Xem SECRETARIAT OF THE ROYAL GOV???T TASK FORCE, OFFICE OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS, AN INTRODUCTION TO THE KHMER ROUGE TRIALS 15 (2004), tr??n website: http://www.cambodia.gov.kh/krt/english/introduction_eng/index.htm (truy c???p ng??y 28.10.2009) (n??i r???ng t???i gi???t ng?????i, tra t???n, v?? ng?????c ????i v?? l?? do t??n gi??o ?????u ???????c coi l?? t???i ph???m trong lu???t ph??p Campuchia.)
[59] Xem ch?? th??ch 44 ??? tr??n v?? di???n gi???i ????nh k??m.
[60] C??ng ?????c ch???ng Tra t???n v?? c??c H??nh th???c ?????i x??? ho???c Tr???ng ph???t T??n b???o, V?? nh??n ?????o ho???c H??? nh???c con ng?????i, ch?? th??ch 17 ??? tr??n, ??i???u 14 (1).
[61] X v. Federal Republic of Germany, App. No. 4185/69, 35 Eur. Comm???n H.R. Dec. & Rep. 142 (1970).
[62] Shelton, ch?? th??ch 7 ??? tr??n, trang 142.
[63] Douglass Cassel, The Expanding Scope and Impact of Reparations Awarded by the Inter-American Court of Human Rights(K. De Feyter et al. eds., 2005)  (n??i r???ng T??a ??n Li??n M??? ???? m??? r???ng c??c ph????ng ??n b???i th?????ng); trong OUT OF THE ASHES: REPARATION FOR VICTIMS OF GROSS AND SYSTEMATIC HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS 191, 199-200.
[64] Xem Loayza Tamayo Case, 1998 Inter-Am. Ct. H.R. (ser. C) No. 42 ?? 90 (Nov. 27, 1998) (ch??? r?? ng?????i th??n c???a n???n nh??n, theo ngh??a nh??n ch???ng h???c, kh??ng ch??? l?? gia ????nh h???t nh??n, m?? l?? gia ????nh m??? r???ng).
[65] Xem Blake Case, 1999 Inter-Am. Ct. H.R. (ser. C) No. 48 57 (Jan. 22, 1999) (cha m??? v?? anh em ?????u ???????c b???i th?????ng thi???t h???i).
[66] Surez Rosero Case, 1999 Inter-Am. Ct. H.R. (ser. C) No. 44 113 (Jan. 20, 1999); B??maca Veldsquez Case, 2002 Inter-Am. Ct. H.R. (ser. C) No. 91 106 (Feb. 22, 2002).
[67] David Bederman,  The United Nations Compensation Commission and the Tradition of International Claims Settlement, 27 N.Y.U. J. INT???L L. & POL. 1, 22 n. 102 (1994).
#193 ??? Y??u s??ch ???????ng ch??? U c???a TQ c?? ph?? h???p v???i lu???t qu???c t??? kh??ng?


Ngu???n: Masahiro Miyoshi (2012). ???China???s ???U-Shaped Line??? Claim in the South China Sea: Any Validity Under International Law????, Ocean Development & International Law, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 1-17.>>PDF
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??y Anh, Phan Th??? Ph????ng Th???o | Hi???u ????nh: V?? Ng???c Di???p
B??i li??n quan: H???i ch???ng ???th??u d???t k?? ???c??? c???a Trung Qu???c
Y??u s??ch g???n ????y c???a Trung Qu???c v??? khu v???c??????????ng ch??? U??? r???ng l???n tr??n bi???n ????ng, li??n quan ?????n c??c qu???n ?????o ??ang tranh ch???p l?? Tr?????ng Sa v?? Ho??ng Sa, ???? l??m d???y l??n nh???ng ch??? tr??ch nghi??m tr???ng kh??ng ch??? t??? c??c qu???c gia l??ng gi???ng, m?? c??n t??? m???t s??? qu???c gia ngo??i khu v???c. Y??u s??ch n??y c??ng ???? ????a ?????n h??ng lo???t c??c c??u h???i mang t??nh l?? thuy???t, bao g???m li???u c??c y??u s??ch danh ngh??a l???ch s??? (historic title claims) m?? kh??ng c?? b???ng ch???ng c??? th??? c?? gi?? tr??? theo lu???t qu???c t??? hay kh??ng. B??i vi???t ??i s??u nghi??n c???u v???n ????? n??y v?? c??c v???n ????? kh??c xoay quanh tuy??n b??? ??????????ng ch??? U??? c???a Trung Qu???c.
Gi???i thi???u
Y??u s??ch g???n ????y c???a C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa (sau ????y vi???t t???t l?? PRC ho???c Trung Qu???c) v??? ??????????ng ch??? U??? t???i bi???n ????ng (xem h??nh 1), bao tr??m c??c ?????o v?? v??ng n?????c xung quanh ???? l??m d???y l??n s??? ph???n ?????i t???i m???t s??? c??c qu???c gia l??ng gi???ng tr??n Bi???n ????ng. N??i ch??nh x??c th?? ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t ???????ng, m?? l?? m???t chu???i 9 ???????ng ?????t ??o???n v???ch ra m???t khu v???c bi???n r???ng l???n li??n quan ?????n c??c th???c th??? l???n nh??? m?? Trung Qu???c c?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n l??nh th???. Y??u s??ch b???t th?????ng n??y, ???????c cho l?? d???a tr??n danh ngh??a l???ch s???, ??ang l??m d???y l??n s??? lo ng???i cho c??c lu???t s?? qu???c t???.

H??nh 1. B???n ????? ????nh k??m C??ng h??m ng??y 7 th??ng 5 n??m 2009 c???a C???ng h??a nh??n d??n Trung Hoa l??n ???y ban Li??n Hi???p Qu???c v??? Ranh gi???i ngo??i th??m l???c ?????a, ????p l???i ????? tr??nh chung gi???a Malaysia v?? Vi???t Nam l??n ???y ban n??y v??o ng??y 6 th??ng 5 n??m 2009.
M???t c??u h???i ?????t ra l?? li???u vi???c y??u s??ch m???t v??ng bi???n b???ng m???t lo???t c??c ???????ng ?????t ??o???n thay v?? m???t ???????ng li???n li??n t???c l?? c?? kh??? thi ho???c ???????c ph??p hay kh??ng. C??c ???????ng ?????t ??o???n t???o ra nh???ng kho???ng tr???ng, ??i???u n??y t???o n??n m???t c??u h???i nghi??m t??c v??? vi???c l??m th??? n??o nh???ng v??ng bi???n trong kho???ng tr???ng n??y c?? th??? ???????c ph??n ?????nh m???t c??ch h???p l???, gi??? s??? nh???ng ???????ng ?????t ??o???n ???? ???????c ph??n ?????nh r?? r??ng. D?????ng nh?? Trung Qu???c mu???n n??i r???ng c??c v??ng bi???n k??n v?? c??c th???c th??? n??y trong l???ch s??? ???? thu???c s??? h???u c???a Trung Qu???c m?? kh??ng g???p ph???i s??? ph???n ?????i t??? c??c qu???c gia kh??c qua th???i gian.
B??i vi???t ng???n g???n n??y l?? m???t n??? l???c nh???m cung c???p m???t ????nh gi?? ph??p l?? qu???c t??? mang t??nh ph???n bi???n v??? y??u s??ch c???a Trung Qu???c. Trong c??c ph???n ti???p theo, c??c v???n ????? c?? li??n quan  s??? ???????c xem x??t: th???i ??i???m y??u s??ch ???????ng ch??? U l???n ?????u ti??n ???????c n??u ra l?? khi n??o v?? c??c qu???c gia kh??c, ?????c bi???t l?? c??c qu???c gia l??ng gi???ng ???? ph???n ???ng nh?? th??? n??o; n???u nh?? y??u s??ch ????a ra l?? m???t y??u s??ch quy???n l???ch s???, nh?? th???c s??? Trung Qu???c ???? l??m, th?? b??i vi???t s??? ki???m ch???ng ????? xem li???u ???? c?? ph???i l?? m???t th???c ti???n qu???c gia (state practice) h???p ph??p trong lu???t ph??p qu???c t??? hay kh??ng, v?? n???u y??u s??ch ???????c ????a ra v?? l???i ??ch qu???c gia c???a b??n y??u s??ch  th?? c?? th??? b??nh lu???n g?? v??? v??i tr?? c???a l???i ??ch qu???c gia trong s??? h??nh th??nh lu???t ph??p qu???c t???.
Y??u s??ch ???????ng ch??? U c???a Trung Qu???c l?? g???
Y??u s??ch ???????ng ch??? U c???a Trung Qu???c b???t ngu???n t??? y??u s??ch c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c (sau ????y g???i l?? ROC ho???c ????i Loan) ?????i v???i qu???n ?????o ????ng Sa, Ho??ng Sa, b??i Macclesfield (b??i Trung Sa), v?? qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa nh?? l?? l??nh th??? c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c ??? Bi???n ????ng, v?? ???????c th??? hi???n tr??n ???B???n ????? c??c qu???n ?????o c???a Trung Qu???c ??? Bi???n ????ng??? do ???y ban Tr???c ?????a b???n ????? ?????t v?? Bi???n xu???t b???n v??o th??ng 4/1935.[1] Tr??n B???n ????? Trung Qu???c v?? b???n ????? ????nh k??m c???a n?? ??? ???B???n ????? v??? tr?? c???a c??c qu???n ?????o tr??n Bi???n ????ng??? ??? c??c ?????o ???????c nh???c ?????n ??? tr??n ???? ???????c ch??? ra l?? m???t ph???n c???a l??nh th??? Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c v?? m???t ???????ng 11 ??o???n ???? ???????c v??? ra xung quanh c??c ?????o ????.[2] B???n ????? ???????c ????nh d???u b???ng c??c ???????ng ?????t ??o???n tr??n Bi???n ????ng ???? ch??nh th???c ph??t h??nh l???n ?????u ti??n d?????i th???i Qu???c D??n ?????ng c???m quy???n.[3]
C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa (PRC) ???? s??? d???ng ???????ng ?????t ??o???n n??y l??m y??u s??ch bi??n gi???i bi???n tr??n Bi???n ????ng.[4] Li v?? Li ???? ch??? ra s??? ch???p thu???n c???a m???t s??? n?????c li???n k??? v???i Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i y??u s??ch n??y[5] v?? k???t lu???n r???ng ???[ n?? ] c?? th??? ???????c g???i l?? ???????ng bi??n gi???i tr??n bi???n truy???n th???ng c???a Trung Qu???c trong khu v???c Bi???n ????ng.???[6] S??? th???a nh???n (c???a c??c qu???c gia li???n k???) l?? m???t ??i???m quan tr???ng, v?? s??? ???????c th???o lu???n s??u h??n d?????i ????y, nh??ng ??i???u m?? t??c gi??? b??i vi???t n??y coi tr???ng h??n trong v???n ????? n??y l?? li???u ???????ng (???????c cho l??) ?????t ??o???n n??y c?? th??? ???????c coi l?? m???t ???????ng bi??n gi???i h???p ph??p tr??n bi???n hay kh??ng.
M???t ???????ng bi??n gi???i, ho???c b???t k??? ???????ng n??o thu???c d???ng n??y, ph???i l?? m???t ???????ng li??n t???c. N???u c?? nh???ng kho???ng tr???ng gi???a c??c ph??n ??o???n th?? kh??ng th??? ???????c ?????nh ngh??a l?? m???t ???????ng. R?? r??ng, k??? c??? khi ???????ng bi??n gi???i ???? ???????c ph??n ?????nh th?? nh???ng kho???ng tr???ng gi???a c??c ph??n ??o???n n??y s??? ????? l???i nh???ng khu v???c kh??ng ???????c ph??n ?????nh.  ?????i v???i  y??u s??ch ???????ng ?????t ??o???n t???i Bi???n ????ng c???a Trung Qu???c (ho???c c???a ????i Loan), v???n ????? ?????t ra l?? li???u c??c ??o???n n??y c?? ph???i l??  ???????ng bi??n gi???i ????  ???????c ph??n ?????nh hay kh??ng. Y??u s??ch  ???????ng ?????t ??o???n ch??? d???a tr??n danh ngh??a l???ch s???, ???????c cho l?? ???????c ch???p nh???n ho???c ???????c m???c nh???n b???i c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng v?? c??c n?????c kh??c.[7] Ph???i ch??ng s??? thi???u ph???n ?????i t??? c??c n?????c kh??c l?? ????? ????? x??c nh???n ch??? quy???n l??nh th??? tr??n c??c v??ng bi???n bao quanh b???i nh???ng ???????ng bi??n gi???i ?????t ??o???n v?? c??c ?????o n???m trong v??ng bi???n ????? N???u nh?? v???y l?? ?????, th?? b???t c??? y??u s??ch l??nh th??? n??o d?? c?? b???t h???p l?? ho???c th??i qu?? ?????n ????u c??ng ?????u c?? th??? ???????c x??c l???p theo lu???t ph??p qu???c t??? tr??? khi b??? ph???n ?????i.
?????o lu???t v??? v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t??? v?? Th???m l???c ?????a n??m 1998 c???a Trung Qu???c d?????ng nh?? cho th???y Trung Qu???c ???? k??? th???a tuy??n b??? c???a ????i Loan ?????i v???i ???????ng ?????t ??o???n t???i bi???n ????ng, v?? Trung Qu???c ???? n??u trong ??i???u 14 r???ng ???c??c quy ?????nh c???a lu???t n??y kh??ng ???nh h?????ng ?????n c??c quy???n l???ch s??? m?? n?????c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa ???????c h?????ng.???[8] D?? c??c ???quy???n l???ch s??? c???a Trung Qu???c??? trong ??i???u kho???n n??y kh??ng ???????c gi???i th??ch r?? r??ng, c?? th??? gi??? ?????nh r???ng nh???ng quy???n n??y ???????c d???a tr??n ???????ng bi??n gi???i truy???n th???ng tr??n bi???n ???? ???????c v??? trong c??c b???n ????? Trung Qu???c t??? n??m 1947.[9] D?? v???y, ????i Loan ch??a bao gi??? t??? b??? y??u s??ch c???a m??nh ?????i v???i ???????ng bi??n gi???i ?????t ??o???n. Th???t v???y, trong ??o???n ?????u c???a H?????ng d???n Ch??nh s??ch ?????i v???i bi???n ????ng, ???????c Ch??nh ph??? ????i Loan ph?? duy???t v??o th??ng 4/1993, c?? tuy??n b??? r???ng:
[k]hu v???c bi???n ????ng n???m trong gi???i h???n v??ng n?????c l???ch s??? l?? v??ng bi???n thu???c quy???n t??i ph??n c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c, trong khu v???c ???? Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c c?? m???i quy???n v?? l???i ??ch.[10]
Song v?? Zou ???? truy nguy??n quan ??i???m c???a ????i Loan trong ???? bao g???m vi???c c??? B??? tr?????ng N???i v??? v?? Th??? t?????ng trong th??ng 9/1993 ???? nh???c l???i r???ng c??c v??ng n?????c thu???c bi???n ????ng t??? l??u ???? v??ng n?????c l???ch s??? c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c.[11] V??o th??ng 3/1995, qu??n ?????i ????i Loan ???? b???n v??o m???t t??u ch??? h??ng Vi???t Nam ??i l???c v??o khu v???c c???m xung quanh ?????o Ba B??nh trong qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa.[12] C??ng trong c??ng n??m ????, ????p l???i c??c  tuy??n b??? c???a M??? v??? qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa v?? bi???n ????ng, B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao ????i Loan ???? ban h??nh m???t tuy??n b??? n??m ??i???m v??? v???n ????? Bi???n ????ng, trong ???? ????i B???c t??i kh???ng ?????nh y??u s??ch ?????i v???i c??c v??ng n?????c trong Bi???n ????ng ???????c bao quanh b???i ???????ng ch??n ??o???n l?? c??c v??ng n?????c l???ch s??? c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c.[13] Vi???t Nam ph???n ???ng b???ng c??ch ph???n ?????i r???ng y??u s??ch c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c l?? v?? c??n c???.[14] N??m 1996, B??? Ngo???i giao ????i Loan nh???c l???i r???ng y??u s??ch v??ng n?????c l???ch s??? t???i Bi???n ????ng s??? ???????c duy tr?? m???t c??ch ki??n ?????nh.[15] ????y l?? tr?????ng h???p m?? c??? ???????ng ch??? U v?? c??c v??ng bi???n v?? c??c ?????o bao quanh b???i ???????ng n??y ???????c y??u s??ch  b???i c??? ch??nh ph??? c???a C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa v?? ch??nh ph??? c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c.
B???n ????? trong vai tr?? b???ng ch???ng v??? gi???i h???n c???a ch??? quy???n qu???c gia
???????ng 9 ??o???n, nh?? ???????c th??? hi???n trong H??nh 1, ???????c coi l?? b???ng ch???ng cho y??u s??ch v??ng n?????c l???ch s??? c???a Trung Hoa D??n Qu???c ho???c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa. B???n ????? ???????c coi l?? b???ng ch???ng cho c??c y??u s??ch ch??? quy???n qu???c gia v??, trong m???t v??i t??nh hu???ng, b???n ????? ???????c ch???p nh???n l?? c?? nh???ng gi?? tr??? hi???u l???c nh???t ?????nh. Tuy nhi??n  trong h??ng lo???t c??c v??? vi??c v??? tranh ch???p l??nh th??? v?? ???????ng bi??n gi???i ????a ra tr?????c t??a tr???ng t??i qu???c t???, gi?? tr??? hi???u l???c c???a b???n ????? b??? coi nh???, tr??? khi nh???ng b???n ????? ?????y c?? hi???u l???c ph??p l?? n???i t???i, v?? d??? nh?? c??c b???n ????? g???n li???n v???i m???t ??i???u ?????c. T??a C??ng l?? Qu???c t??? ???? n??u ra trong v??? Tranh ch???p bi??n gi???i gi???a Burkina Faso v?? C???ng h??a Mali n??m 1986:
D?? l?? trong c??c v??? vi???c ph??n ?????nh bi??n gi???i hay trong c??c xung ?????t qu???c t??? v??? l??nh th???, b???n ????? ch??? ????n thu???n cung c???p th??ng tin v???i ????? ch??nh x??c kh??c nhau trong t???ng v??? vi???c, b???n th??n c??c b???n ????? v?? s??? t???n t???i c???a ch??ng kh??ng th??? c???u th??nh m???t danh ngh??a ch??? quy???n l??nh th???, t???c kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t v??n b???n ???????c quy ?????nh b???i lu???t qu???c t??? l?? c?? gi?? tr??? ph??p l?? n???i t???i ph???c v??? m???c ????ch h??nh th??nh c??c quy???n ?????i v???i l??nh th???. T???t nhi??n, trong m???t v??i tr?????ng h???p b???n ????? c?? th??? c?? nh???ng gi?? tr??? ph??p l?? tr??n, nh??ng ?????y l?? khi c??c gi?? tr??? ph??p l?? n??y kh??ng thu???n d???a tr??n c??c ?????c t??nh n???i t???i c???a n??, m?? v?? nh???ng b???n ????? n??y thu???c nh??m c??c bi???u hi???n v??? m???t v???t ch???t cho ?? ch?? c???a qu???c gia ho???c c??c qu???c gia li??n quan. ????y l?? tr?????ng h???p, v?? d???, c??c b???n ????? l?? ph???n ph??? l???c kh??ng th??? t??ch r???i c???a m???t v??n b???n ch??nh th???c. Ngo???i tr??? tr?????ng h???p ???????c x??c ?????nh r?? r??ng n??i tr??n, b???n ????? ch??? l?? b???ng ch???ng b??n ngo??i c?? m???c ????? ????ng tin c???y ho???c kh??ng ????nh tin c???y kh??c nhau, c??ng v???i c??c b???ng ch???ng kh??c c?? c??ng d???ng b???n ch???t d???a tr??n ho??n c???nh, d??ng ????? thi???t l???p ho???c t??i l???p c??c th???c t???.[16]
??o???n b??nh lu???n v??? b???n ????? n??y ???? ???????c tr??ch d???n l???i trong c??c v??? vi???c v??? tranh ch???p ph??n ?????nh l??nh th??? v?? ???????ng bi??n gi???i kh??c, bao g???m: V??? ?????o Kasikili/Sedudu gi???a Bostwana v?? Namibia n??m 1999;[17] V??? Ch??? quy???n ?????i v???i Pulau Ligitan v?? Pulau Sipadan gi???a Indonesia v?? Malaysia n??m 2002,[18]V??? Tranh ch???p bi??n gi???i gi???a Benin v?? Niger n??m 2005,[19] v?? v??? Tranh ch???p L??nh th??? v?? tr??n bi???n t???i Bi???n Caribe gi???a Nicaragua v?? Honduras n??m 2007.[20] M???t ??i???m ????ng ch?? ?? ???????c m???t chuy??n gia ?????a l?? ????a ra khi b??nh lu???n v??? gi?? tr??? b???ng ch???ng c???a b???n ?????:
V??n b???n [c???a m???t ??i???u ?????c ph??n ?????nh bi??n gi???i] lu??n lu??n c?? c??c b???n ph??c th???o v?? b???n ????? ????nh k??m l??m v??n b???n ph??? b??? tr???, nh???ng c??c v??n b???n n??y ch??? c?? gi?? tr??? ph??p l?? khi n?? ???????c h???p nh???t v??o ??i???u ?????c. ????ng ng???c nhi??n l??, m???t s??? ??i???u ?????c kh??ng ????nh k??m b???t c??? b???n ????? n??o, c?? ngh??a l?? ch??? d???a tr??n s??? mi??u t??? ph??p l?? mang t??nh to??n di???n v??? ???????ng bi??n gi???i ???? ???????c c??c b??n ch???p nh???n.[21]
Nh???ng ????nh gi?? tr??n v??? gi?? tr??? c???a b???n ????? khi l??m b???ng ch???ng cho c??c y??u s??ch l??nh th??? ho???c ???????ng bi??n gi???i ????? ????? ch??ng ta chuy???n sang th???o lu???n c??c v???n ????? th???c ch???t kh??c, v?? c??c b???n ????? ????a ra b???i Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan kh??ng ????? r?? r??ng ????? c?? th??? ph??n t??ch th??m ??i???u g??. S??? h???u ??ch h??n khi th???o lu???n v??? m???c ????ch c???a c??c n?????c li??n quan v?? c??c h??? qu??? ph??p l?? trong lu???t qu???c t???.
Th???c ti???n qu???c gia v?? t??nh nh???t qu??n v???i lu???t ph??p qu???c t???
???????ng l?????i b?? l???i n???i l??n nh?? l?? m???t tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n b???t b??nh th?????ng c???a C???ng h??a nh??n d??n Trung Hoa nh???m ph???n ???ng l???i ????? tr??nh chung c???a Malaysia v?? Vi???t Nam l??n ???y ban Li??n H???p Qu???c v??? th???m l???c ?????a (CLCS) v??o th??ng 5/2009[22] c??ng nh?? vi???c Vi???t Nam ????n ph????ng ????? tr??nh l??n CLCS v??o th??ng 4/2009.[23] S??? ph???n ?????i c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i c??c ?????ng th??i tr??n c???a Vi???t Nam v?? Malaysia ???? kh??i d???y ???ch??? quy???n kh??ng th??? ch???i c??i??? c???a n?????c n??y ?????i v???i c??c ?????o ??? Bi???n ????ng v?? c??c v??ng n?????c xung quanh v?? tuy??n b??? ???quy???n ch??? quy???n v?? quy???n t??i ph??n ?????i v???i c??c v??ng n?????c li??n quan c??ng nh?? v??ng ????y bi???n v?? v??ng ?????t d?????i ????y bi???n.???[24] ????i Loan c??ng c??ng khai ph???n ?????i ????? tr??nh c???a Vi???t Nam l??n CLCS v??o ng??y 12/5/2009.[25] Philippines ph???n ?????i m???nh m??? c??c y??u s??ch c???a Trung Qu???c ??? Bi???n ????ng trong c??ng h??m tr??nh l??n Li??n H???p Qu???c v??o th??ng 4/2011.[26]
N???u c??c y??u s??ch c???a ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ??? bi???n ????ng l??  th???c ti???n qu???c gia v?? kh??ng g???p b???t c??? ph???n ?????i n??o t??? ph??a c??c qu???c gia kh??c, ?????c bi???t l?? t??? c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng, trong m???t th???i gian d??i, c??c y??u s??ch n??y c?? th??? ???????c coi h???p ph??p theo lu???t qu???c t???. Nh??ng nh?? ???? ch??? ra ph??a tr??n, ??i???u n??y kh??ng ho??n to??n c?? ngh??a l?? s??? ch???m h???t c???a v???n ?????. Nh?? Hersch Lauterpacht ???? ch??? ra m???t c??ch th???ng th???n, m???t tuy??n b??? ????n ph????ng ?????i v???i c??c danh ngh??a, d?? l?? l??nh th??? hay g?? kh??c , hi???n nhi??n kh??ng ???????c tr??i v???i lu???t qu???c t???:
Vi???c thi???u s??? ph???n ?????i c?? th??? ???????c xem l?? kh??ng li??n quan trong t??nh hu???ng h??nh vi y??u s??ch danh ngh??a c???a m???t qu???c gia???hi???n nhi??n tr??i ng?????c v???i lu???t qu???c t??? n??i chung ?????n m???c kh??ng th??? c???u th??nh m???t quy???n ph??p l?????Trong tr?????ng h???p ?????y, ph???n ?????i l?? vi???c n??n l??m, nh??ng kh??ng ph???i l?? thi???t y???u??? C?? nh???ng h??nh ?????ng ngay t??? ?????u (ab initio) ???? b??? v?? hi???u tri???t ????? t???i m???c m???t h??nh vi b???t c???n c???a qu???c gia c?? l???i ??ch li??n quan c??ng kh??ng th??? thay ?????i ???????c t??nh ch???t v?? hi???u c???a n??.[27]
Trong V??? Ng?? tr?????ng Anh ??? Na Uy 1951, T??a ??n C??ng l?? Qu???c t??? ???? ra ph??n quy???t r???ng vi???c ph??n ?????nh b??? bi???n c???a c??c qu???c gia ven bi???n kh??ng th??? v?????t qu?? gi???i h???n c???a lu???t qu???c t???. Ph???n c?? li??n quan trong quy???t ?????nh c???a To?? l??:
S??? ph??n ?????nh c??c v??ng bi???n lu??n c?? kh??a c???nh qu???c t???; n?? kh??ng th??? ch??? ????n thu???n d???a v??o ?? ch?? c???a c??c qu???c gia ven bi???n nh?? ???????c th??? hi???n trong lu???t qu???c gia. M???c d?? ????ng l?? vi???c ph??n ?????nh ch??? l?? m???t h??nh ?????ng ????n ph????ng, v?? ch??? c?? qu???c gia ven bi???n c?? th???m quy???n ????? ti???n h??nh n??, gi?? tr??? c???a vi???c ph??n ?????nh ?????i v???i c??c qu???c gia kh??c l???i ph??? thu???c v??o lu???t qu???c t???.[28]
????y l?? m???t ??i???u d??? hi???u. N???u ??i???u n??y c??ng ???????c ??p d???ng cho c??c v??ng bi???n h???p g???n b???, th?? c??ng c?? l?? do ????? cho r???ng c??c khu v???c gi???a bi???n kh??i, th?????ng ???????c g???i l?? bi???n c??? (high seas), v?? d??? nh?? khu v???c Bi???n ????ng, vi???c ph??n ?????nh hay khoanh v??ng c??c v??ng bi???n n??y l???i c??ng ph???i ch???u s??? gi???i h???n m???nh h??n c???a lu???t qu???c t???. Theo c??ch hi???u n??y, c??c y??u s??ch  c???a Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ?????i v???i ???????ng  9 ??o???n khoanh v??ng m???t khu v???c bi???n r???ng l???n ??? Bi???n ????ng kh??ng th??? d??? d??ng ???????c c??ng nh???n l?? h???p ph??p theo lu???t qu???c t???.
C??c qu???c gia ????a ra y??u s??ch d???a tr??n c?? s??? c??c t??nh to??n c???a h??? v??? l???i ??ch qu???c gia v?? c??c y??u s??ch n??y l?? v?? d??? c???a th???c ti???n qu???c gia. Nh??ng ????? m???t th???c ti???n nh?? v???y c?? th??? ???????c c??ng nh???n trong lu???t qu???c t???, th???c ti???n n??y c???n ???????c ch???ng th???c b???i lu???t qu???c t??? (v?? d???, b???ng vi???c ????p ???ng c??c y??u c???u ????? n?? c?? th??? tr??? th??nh m???t quy ?????nh c???a lu???t qu???c t???). Nghi??n c???u c???a Ban th?? k?? Li??n H???p Qu???c, ???Th??? ch??? ph??p l?? c???a V??ng n?????c l???ch s???, bao g???m c??? V???nh l???ch s???,???[29] l?? c?? s??? ????? th???o lu???n c??c tuy??n b??? ????n ph????ng d???a tr??n c??n c??? l???ch s??? v??? ?????c quy???n t??i ph??n ?????i v???i m???t v??ng bi???n. Nghi??n c???u n??y ch??? th???ng ra r???ng c?? ba nh??n t??? c???n ???????c ????a v??o xem x??t trong vi???c x??c ?????nh s??? t???n t???i c???a danh ngh??a l???ch s??? ?????i v???i m???t v??ng bi???n: ???(1) vi???c thi h??nh quy???n l???c ?????i v???i m???t khu v???c b???i qu???c gia y??u s??ch danh ngh??a l???ch s???; (2) t??nh li??n t???c c???a vi???c thi h??nh quy???n l???c n??y; v?? (3) th??i ????? c??c qu???c gia kh??c.???[30] C?? th??? ng???m hi???u l?? m???t y??u s??ch danh ngh??a l???ch s??? tr??n m???t v??ng bi???n c??? th??? kh??ng th??? c?? hi???u l???c theo lu???t qu???c t??? n???u kh??ng ????p ???ng ?????ng th???i c??? ba y??u c???u tr??n.
Vi???c thi h??nh quy???n l???c
N???u ????i Loan ho???c Trung Qu???c kh???ng ?????nh r???ng n?????c m??nh th???c thi quy???n l???c ?????i v???i v??ng bi???n ???????c khoanh v??ng b???i  ???????ng ch??n ??o???n ??? Bi???n ????ng trong m???t th???i gian d??i, h???  ph???i ch???ng minh ???????c h??? ???? th???c s??? l??m nh?? th???. ????i Loan v?? Trung Qu???c tuy??n b??? thi h??nh quy???n l???c ?????i v??ng bi???n ????ng t??? th???i c??? ?????i, nh??ng ??i???u n??y v???n c??n b??? ho??i nghi; khi ???? m???c ????? hay t???n su???t c???a vi???c thi h??nh quy???n l???c c?? th??? r???t kh?? ????? ch???ng minh tr??? khi c?? b???ng ch???ng b???ng v??n b???n v??? t??nh hi???u qu??? c???a vi???c th???c thi quy???n l???c. C?? th??? l?? qu?? kh?? ????? mong ?????i c??c n?????c y??u s??ch ch???ng minh ??????c l?? v??o th???i ???? ???? ????p ???ng ???????c y??u c???u kh???t khe c???a kh??i ni???m ???th???c thi quy???n l???c h???u hi???u??? n??u ra trong v??? ph??n x??? tr???ng t??i li??n quan ?????n ?????o Palmas n??m 1928 (1928 Island of Palmas Arbitration).[31] Nh??ng n???u ????i Loan ho???c Trung Qu???c y??u s??ch danh ngh??a l???ch s??? ng??y nay, ho???c t??? n??m 1947 khi m?? b???n ????? c?? ???????ng 9 ??o???n l???n ?????u ???????c xu???t b???n, h??? bu???c ph???i ch???ng minh s??? th???c thi quy???n l???c h???u hi???u (c?? ngh??a l?? ch??? quy???n).[32] ??i???u n??y ?????c bi???t c???n thi???t khi c?? m???t y??u s??ch c???nh tranh b???i th???m ch?? ch??? m???t qu???c gia l??ng gi???ng ?????i v???i ch??? quy???n c???a c??c ?????o v?? ???? trong ???????ng 9 ??o???n ??? Bi???n ????ng. Hi???n nhi??n, c??? y??u s??ch c???a Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ?????u kh??ng th??? chi???m ??u th??? tuy???t ?????i so v???i y??u s??ch c???a c??c n?????c kh??c tr??? khi h??? ????a ra ???????c nhi???u lu???n ??i???m m???nh h??n c??c n?????c kh??c.
Th???c thi quy???n l???c m???t c??ch li??n t???c
Vi???c th???c thi quy???n l???c c???n ???????c di???n ra trong m???t th???i gian d??i, vi???c th???c thi quy???n l???c r???i r???c l?? kh??ng ?????. S??? thi???t l???p c???a danh ngh??a l???ch s??? ????i h???i vi???c th???c thi, m?? ?????n l?????t n?? l???i c???n m???t kho???ng th???i gian c??? th??? kh??ng b??? gi??n ??o???n. Do danh ngh??a l???ch s??? mang t??nh nguy??n t???c n??n nh???t thi???t ph???i c?? m???t kho???ng th???i gian d??i cho s??? h??nh th??nh c???a n??.
Tuy nhi??n, kh??ng c?? ti??u chu???n ch??nh x??c cho ????? d??i c???a th???i gian trong lu???t qu???c t???. Li v?? Li ???? ????? c???p ?????n m???t kho???ng th???i gian ???n???a th??? k?????? m?? qua ???? ???????ng ch??n ??o???n d?????ng nh?? ???? ???????c th???a nh???n trong c???ng ?????ng qu???c t???.[33] N???a th??? k??? c?? v??? l?? m???t kho???ng th???i gian d??i h???p l?? ????? m???t danh ngh??a c?? th??? ???????c hi???u nh?? ???? ???????c h??nh th??nh, n???u kh??ng c?? qu???c gia n??o kh??c tranh ch???p v??? y??u s??ch danh ngh??a n??y trong su???t th???i gian ????. Th???c v???y, ti??u chu???n n???a th??? k??? ???????c ????? c???p ?????n t???i ??i???u 4 c???a Hi???p ?????nh Tr???ng t??i gi???a Anh ??? Guiana v?? Venezuela ng??y 2/2/1897 l??m m???t trong ba ???Nguy??n t???c c?? th??? ???????c ??p d???ng  trong v??? vi???c???:
(a)    Vi???c chi???m h???u trong kho???ng th???i gian 50 n??m s??? c???u th??nh m???t danh ngh??a. T??a Tr???ng t??i nh???n th???y s??? ki???m so??t ?????c quy???n v??? ch??nh tr??? tr??n m???t khu v???c, c??ng nh?? s??? d??n x???p tr??n th???c t???, l?? ????? ????? c???u th??nh s??? chi???m gi??? theo th???i hi???u.[34]
??i???u n??y c?? v??? l?? quy ?????nh t???p t???c duy nh???t ??ang t???n t???i v?? 50 n??m ???????c coi l?? kho???ng th???i gian c???n thi???t ????? vi???c chi???m h???u m???t l??nh th??? ????? ??em l???i m???t danh ngh??a cho n??. Nh??ng ??i???u n??y c??ng kh??ng ho??n to??n l?? m???t quy ?????nh. N???u kho???ng th???i gian ??p d???ng cho l??nh th??? tr??n ?????t li???n n??y ???????c cho l?? c?? th??? ??p d???ng muntatis mutadis (v???i nh???ng s???a ?????i c???n thi???t v??? chi ti???t) cho c??c v??ng bi???n n??i chung, th?? n?? ph???i ???????c ?????m b???o b???ng ???s??? ki???m so??t ?????c quy???n v??? ch??nh tr?????? v?? ???s??? d??n x???p tr??n th???c t??????. ??i???u n??y c?? ngh??a l?? qu???c gia y??u s??ch ph???i c?? s??? ki???m so??t ?????c quy???n v??? ch??nh tr??? l??n v??ng bi???n v?? c?? ki???m so??t tr??n th???c t??? lo???i tr??? ???????c c??c n?????c kh??c. Li???u Trung Qu???c hay ????i Loan c?? thi h??nh vi???c ki???m so??t ?????c quy???n v?? kh??ng th??? ch???i c??i ?????i v???i nh???ng v??ng bi???n n??i tr??n ??? Bi???n ????ng trong v??ng n???a th??? k??? qua hay kh??ng? N???u ????i Loan hay Trung Qu???c kh??ng th??? ch???ng minh s??? ki???m so??t ?????c quy???n v?? hi???u qu??? c???a h??? ?????i v???i c??c v??ng bi???n y??u s??ch trong kho???ng th???i gian n??i tr??n, hai n?????c n??y s??? th???t b???i trong vi???c y??u s??ch danh ngh??a l???ch s??? ?????i v???i v??ng bi???n ???????c khoanh v??ng b???i ???????ng 9 ??o???n.
Th??i ????? c???a c??c n?????c kh??c
L???i ??ch qu???c gia v?? Lu???t qu???c t???
C?? ch??? n??o ????? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p?
M???t v??i ??i???m k???t lu???n
Download ph???n c??n l???i c???a v??n b???n t???i ????y: Duong chu U co phu hop voi luat quoc te hay khong.pdf
????????????
L??u ??: C??c ch?? th??ch ???? ???????c gi???n l?????c. Vui l??ng xem b???n g???c ti???ng Anh ????? bi???t c??c ch?? th??ch ?????y ????? ??? NBT.
[1]Jinming Li and Dexia Li, ???The Dotted Line on the Chinese Map of the South China Sea: A Note,??? Ocean Development and International Law 34 (2003): 289.
[2] Nh?? tr??n., at 290.
[3] Nh?? tr??n
[4] Nh?? tr??n, at  294, t??c gi??? n??i: Tr??n b???n ????? Trung Qu???c ????a ra sau khi n?????c C???ng H??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa ra ?????i 1949, ???????ng 11 ??o???n ??? bi???n ????ng xu???t hi???n theo nh???ng b???n ????? c??. Kh??ng ph???i m??i ?????n 1953, sau khi c?? s??? ph?? chu???n c???a th??? t?????ng Chu ??n Lai, th?? 2 ??i???m ??? v???nh B???c B??? ???????c x??a ??i. B???n ????? Trung Qu???c xu???t b???n n??m 1953 ???? th??? hi???n ???????ng 9 ??o???n t???i bi???n ????ng.
[5] Nh?? tr??n, at 290
[6] Nh?? tr??n, at 294
[7] Nh?? tr??n, at 290, t??c gi??? vi???t: D???a tr??n tuy??n b??? ???????ng 9 ??o???n, c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? ko bao gi??? th??? hi???n s??? b???t ?????ng. Kh??ng c?? m???t qu???c gia g???n k??? n??o th??? hi???n s??? ph???n ?????i v??? m???t ngo???i giao. S??? th??? hi???n im l???ng ?????i v???i m???t tuy??n b??? c??ng khai c?? th??? ???????c xem l?? s??? m???c nh???n v?? n?? c?? th??? ???????c kh???ng ?????nh r???ng ???????ng 9 ??o???n n??y ???????c c??ng nh???n trong n???a th??? k???.
[8] Exclusive Economic Zone and Continental Shelf Act, 1998, available at the Web site of the UN Division for Ocean Affairs and the Law of the Sea (DOALOS) at www.un.org/Depts/los/index.htm.  ???Vietnam: Disputes Regarding the Law on the Exclusive Economic Zone and the Continental Shelf of the People???s Republic of China Which Was Passed on 26 June 1998,??? para. 2, Law of the Sea Bulletin 38 (1998):55.
[9] Yan-Huei Song and Keyuan Zou, ???Maritime Legislation of Mainland China and Taiwan: Developments, Comparison, Implications, and Potential Challenges for the United States,??? Ocean Development and International Law 31 (2000): 318.
[10] Republic of China, ???The South China Sea Policy Guidelines,??? reproduced in Sun Kuan-Ming, ???Policy of the Republic of China Towards the South China Sea,???Marine Policy 19 (1995): 408, as quoted by Song and Zou, supra note 9, at 328
[11] Song and Zou, supra note 9, at 328.
[12] Nh?? tr??n.
[13] Nh?? tr??n. 328.
[14] Nh?? tr??n.
[15] Nh?? tr??n.
[16] FrontierDispute,[1986]I.C.J.Reports,at582,para.54
[17] Kasikili/Sedudu Island Case, [1999] I.C.J. Reports, at 1098, para. 84.
[18] SovereigntyoverPulauLigitanandPulauSipadan,[2002]I.C.J.Reports,at667,para.88.
[19] Frontier Dispute, [2005] I.C.J. Reports, at 119???120, para. 44.
[20] Territorial and Maritime Disputes in the Caribbean Sea, [2007] I.C.J Reports, at 58, para.215.
[21] Gerald Blake, :The Depiction of International Boundaries on Topographic Maps???, Boundary and Security Bulletin 3, no.1 (1995): 46.
[22] Joint Submission of Malaysia and Vietnam to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, Executive Summary, 6 May 2009, available at the Commission Web site at www.un.org/Depts/los/clcs new/clcs home.htm.
[23] Submission of Vietnam to the Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, (Partial Submission), Executive Summary, 7 May 2009, available at the Commission Web site, supra note 22.
[24] People???s Republic of China, Letter to the Secretary-General, New York, 7 May 2009, CML/17/2009, para. 2.
[25] Republic of China (Taiwan) Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Declaration of the Republic of China on the Outer Limits of Its Continental Shelf, No. 003, 12 May 2009.
[26] Philippines, Letter, No. 11-0094, 000228, 5 April 2011, available at the Commission Web site, supra note 22.
[27] Hersch Lauterpacht, ???Sovereignty over Submarine Areas,??? British Year Book of Interna- tional Law 27 (1950): 397???398.
[28] Fisheries Case, [1951] I.C.J. Reports, at 132.
[29] ???Juridical Regime of Historic Waters,??? UN Doc. A/CN.4/143, in Yearbook of the Interna- tional Law Commission, vol. II (1962), 1???26. This is a critical study of the subject, rather than a memorandum of facts.
[30] Nh?? tr??n., at 13, para. 80.
[31] Island of Palmas, 1928, 2 U.N. Reports of International Arbitral Awards, 869, 870.
[32] Juridical Regime of Historic Waters,??? supra note 29, at 15, para. 100;  Masahiro Miyoshi, Considerations of Equityinthe Settlement of Territorial and Boundary Disputes (Dordrecht:MartinusNijhoff,1993),103???104.
[33] Li and Li, supra note 1, at 290.
[34] British-Guiana/Venezuela Arbitration Treaty, 2 February 1897, 89 British and Foreign State Papers 89(1897): 60.
Nh???t c?? th???c s??? mu???n s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n?


Ngu???n: Richard A. Bitzinger, ???Does Japan really want to go nuclear????, RSIS Commentary, 17/10/2017.
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? H???ng Th??| Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p
???? t???ng c?? m???t lo???t nh???ng b??i vi???t suy ??o??n r???ng n???u Nh???t B???n tr??? th??nh m???t c?????ng qu???c s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n th?? ???? c?? th??? l?? m???t ??i???u t???t cho an ninh khu v???c. H???c gi??? n???i ti???ng Walter Russell Mead ???? c?? m???t b??i vi???t tr??n t??? Wall Street Journal n??u quan ??i???m r???ng m???t ???n?????c M?? r??t kh???i Th??i B??nh D????ng??? ??? xu???t ph??t t??? s??? dao ?????ng c???a ch??nh quy???n Trump v???i nh???ng cam k???t suy y???u ??? ch??u ?? ??? c?? th??? d???n ?????n vi???c Nh???t B???n k???t lu???n r???ng ???s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n??? c?? l??? l?? l???a ch???n t???t nh???t cho n?????c n??y. G???n ????y h??n, tr??n t??? Washington Post Bilahari Kausikan vi???t r???ng c??? Nh???t B???n v?? H??n Qu???c n??n ph??t tri???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, v?? ??i???u ???? ch??? c??n l?? v???n ????? th???i gian, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? c?? x???y ra hay kh??ng.
Th???c v???y, c??? Mead l???n Bilahari ?????u tin r???ng ch??nh quy???n Trump n??n hoan ngh??nh ?? t?????ng v??? m???t ch??u ?? h???t nh??n h??a. Theo Bilahri, ??i???u ???? s??? t???o ra m???t ???s??? ?????i tr???ng 6 h?????ng c???a t??nh tr???ng h???y di???t l???n nhau ch???c ch???n???. V?? qu??? th???t, n???u Hoa K??? kh??ng c??n ?????m b???o an ninh cho Nh???t B???n n???a, t???c b???o v??? n?????c n??y b???ng ?? h???t nh??n Hoa K???, th?? c?? l??? Tokyo c???n nghi??m t??c c??n nh???c tr??? th??nh qu???c gia h???t nh??n. H??n n???a, nh??n chung ph???i th???a nh???n r???ng Nh???t B???n c?? n??ng l???c c??ng ngh??? ????? ch??? t???o bom nguy??n t??? trong m???t kho???ng th???i gian t????ng ?????i ng???n ??? c?? l??? l?? v??i th??ng, nhi???u nh???t l?? v??i n??m. Tuy nhi??n, c??u h???i thi???t th???c l???i l??: Nh???t B???n c?? th???c s??? mu???n tr??? th??nh qu???c gia h???t nh??n kh??ng?
Th??ch th???c
Tr?????c h???t, Nh???t B???n c?? th??? s??? nh???n th???y tr??? th??nh m???t qu???c gia s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n l?? m???t vi???c kh?? kh??n h??n r???t nhi???u so v???i nh???ng g?? n?????c n??y hay nhi???u ng?????i ngh??. N?? kh??ng ????n gi???n l?? ch??? t???o m???t qu??? bom nguy??n t???. Ph???i, n???u Nh???t B???n ch??? t???o v?? th??? nghi???m bom h???t nh??n, ??i???u ???? s??? t???o ra t??c ?????ng kh???p ch??u ?? v?? c??? th??? gi???i. Nh??ng s??? c???n r???t, r???t nhi???u th??? ????? Tokyo c?? th??? t???o ra ???????c m???t s??? r??n ??e h???t nh??n ????ng tin c???y.
Tr?????c h???t, Nh???t B???n s??? c???n th??? nghi???m v?? ki???m tra l???i n??ng l???c h???t nh??n c???a ch??nh n?????c n??y. Ph???i, nh???ng si??u m??y t??nh c?? th??? m?? ph???ng v??i ?????c t??nh c???a m???t v??? n??? h???t nh??n, nh??ng cu???i c??ng r?? r??ng Nh???t B???n s??? ph???i th???c hi???n nhi???u th??? nghi???m h???t nh??n trong nhi???u n??m ????? t???o ra m???t l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n ????ng tin c???y.
Nh??ng n?????c n??y s??? tri???n khai v?? kh?? n??y nh?? th??? n??o ????y? Tr??n m??y bay ??? Nh???t B???n kh??ng c?? m???t m??y bay n??o ????? kh??? n??ng chuy??n ch??? bom h???t nh??n, c??ng kh??ng c?? m??y bay n??m bom hay m??y bay c?????ng k??ch chuy??n d???ng. ????ng l?? L???c l?????ng Ph??ng v??? Tr??n kh??ng c???a n?????c n??y s??? d???ng nhi???u m??y bay chi???n ?????u ph???n l???c c???a Hoa K???, ?????c bi???t l?? F-15, v?? qu??? th???t lo???i m??y bay n??y c?? th??? ???????c c???i ti???n ????? chuy??n ch??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n. Tuy nhi??n, ??i???u ???? c???n c?? s??? cho ph??p c???a Hoa K??? ????? m??? ???h???p ??en??? c???a F-15 ??? n??i ch???a c??c c???u ph???n ??i???n t??? v?? m?? ngu???n ??? nh???m h???t nh??n h??a nh???ng m??y bay n??y. V?? ??i???u n??y kh?? m?? ???????c Hoa K??? cho ph??p.
Nh???t B???n c??ng c?? th??? l???p ?????t v?? kh?? h???t nh??n tr??n t??n l???a. V?? nh?? th??? th?? c???n ph???i thu nh??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n l???i sao cho v???a v???i t??n l???a v?? r???i c???n ph???i c???i ti???n t??n l???a. Nh???t B???n c?? m???t n???n c??ng nghi???p ph??ng t??u v?? tr??? ph??t tri???n, nh??ng nh???ng t??n l???a n??y l???i kh??ng th??? d??ng cho l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n. G???n nh?? s??? ph???i ch??? t???o m???t lo???i t??n l???a d??ng nhi??n li???u r???n chuy??n d???ng t??? con s??? kh??ng.
??? ????u?
K??? c??? khi ????p ???ng ???????c c??c ti??u ch?? ????, th?? Nh???t B???n s??? ?????t nh???ng t??n l???a n??y ??? ????u, trong h???m ch???a t??n l???a (v???n s??? d??? b??? nguy hi???m trong c??c tr???n ?????ng ?????t) hay tr??n gi??n ph??ng di ?????ng? Nh???t B???n l?? m???t qu???c gia nh??? v?? ????ng d??n, v?? v??ng n??o c???a Nh???t s??? mu???n ch???p nh???n cho ?????t nh???ng v?? kh?? n??y, nh???t l?? khi n???u b??? k??? th?? t???n c??ng ch??ng s??? bi???n ?????a ??i???m n??y th??nh ????ch ng???m ?????u ti??n? C?? kh??? n??ng nhi???u c???ng ?????ng ?????a ph????ng s??? b???t ch?????c Okinawa ph???n ?????i k???ch li???t vi???c qu??n s??? h??a ?????a ph????ng c???a h???.
Nh???t B???n c?? th??? l???p ?????t nh???ng t??n l???a n??y l??n t??u ng???m, v?? c???n ph???i ch??? t???o m???t lo???i t??n l???a ph??ng t??? t??u ng???m chuy??n d???ng, ???????c b???c k??n ph?? h???p v???i vi???c ph??ng d?????i n?????c. N?????c n??y c??ng s??? ph???i ph??t tri???n m???t t??u ng???m m???i ho??n to??n (t???c lo???i SSBN) m?? r???t c?? th??? ph???i d??ng n??ng l?????ng nguy??n t???. ??i???u ???? c??ng c?? ngh??a l?? c???n ph???i v?????t qua m???t ch?????ng ng???i c??ng ngh??? n???a (m???t l?? ph???n ???ng h???t nh??n nh??? v?? th???t an to??n).
V?? t???t c??? nh???ng th??? n??y s??? kh??ng h??? r???. Anh ph???i chi 15 t??? b???ng ????? ch??? t???o m???t h???m ?????i 4 t??u SSBN l???p Vanguard??? v?? London ????n gi???n l?? ch??? mua t??n l???a Trident II ph??ng t??? t??u ng???m do Hoa K??? s???n xu???t (m???t vi???c m?? c?? th??? Washington s??? kh??ng l??m ?????i v???i Tokyo).
C??c v???n ????? kh??c
C??ng l??c ????, Nh???t B???n s??? ph???i x??y d???ng c??? m???t c?? s??? h??? t???ng h??? tr??? cho v?? kh?? h???t nh??n. Nh???ng nh?? kho chuy??n d???ng c???c k?? ki??n c??? s??? ph???i ???????c x??y ??? c??c c??n c??? kh??ng qu??n v?? h???i qu??n ????? b???o v??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n. C??c k?? s?? h???t nh??n s??? ph???i ???????c ????o t???o ????? c?? ????? kh??? n??ng b???o tr?? v?? qu???n l?? c??c qu??? bom v?? ?????u ?????n.
H??n n???a, Nh???t B???n s??? ph???i s???m c?? m???t h??? th???ng c???nh b??o s???m (v??? tinh v?? ra ??a) ????? k???p th???i ph??t hi???n nh???ng ????n t???n c??ng h???t nh??n c???a k??? th??, c??ng nh?? h??? th???ng ch??? huy v?? ki???m so??t chuy??n d???ng v?? an ninh cao cho vi???c s??? d???ng l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n. Th??m n???a, nh???ng thi???t b??? an ninh, ???????c g???i l?? thi???t b??? Ki???m so??t cho ph??p h??nh ?????ng (PAL), s??? ph???i ???????c l???p ?????t l??n t???ng v?? kh?? nh???m ng??n ch???n vi???c l???p ?????t hay k??ch n??? thi???t b??? h???t nh??n tr??i ph??p, c??c thi???t b??? PAL n??y s??? ph???i ???????c m?? h??a h???t s???c an to??n ????? tr??nh b??? b??n ngo??i x??m nh???p.
Sau ???? Tokyo s??? ph???i ?????t ra c??c quy tr??nh cho vi???c ph??t n??? v?? s??? d???ng l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n. H???u nh?? ch???c ch???n th??? t?????ng s??? ki???m so??t va li h???t nh??n ch???a c??c m?? k??ch ho???t, v?? v??? th??? t?????ng ???? s??? l?? ng?????i c?? th???m quy???n cu???i c??ng trong vi???c k??ch ho???t v?? kh?? h???t nh??n tr??n th???c t???. Nh??ng c??n l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n ph??ng t??? t??u ng???m th?? sao? Ngay c??? v???i c?? c???u ki???m so??t hai ng?????i, th?? v??? m???t l?? thuy???t nh???ng ng?????i ch??? huy t??u ng???m tr??n c??c SSBN c??ng c?? s??? t??? ch??? ????ng k??? trong vi???c cho ph??p ph??ng t??n l???a mang ?????u ?????n h???t nh??n. Nh???ng chi ti???t n??y s??? c???n ph???i ???????c l??m r??.
T??? th??n v???n ?????ng
Quan tr???ng h??n c???, Nh???t B???n s??? c???n ph???i t??? m??nh gi???i quy???t t???t c??? c??c v???n ????? v??? m???t c??ng ngh??? v?? c?? s??? h???t t???ng. Ch???c ch???n Hoa K??? s??? kh??ng gi??p ?????. S??? c???n chi h??ng ngh??n t??? y??n ????? t???o ra ???????c m???t l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n kh??? t??n v?? m???t nhi???u th???p ni??n ????? ho??n th??nh n??.
Trong l??c ????, li???u c??ng lu???n Nh???t B???n c?? ???ng h??? m???t ch????ng tr??nh v?? kh?? h???t nh??n kh???ng l??? v?? ?????t ????? kh??ng? C??c nh?? ch??nh tr??? c???c h???u c???a Nh???t B???n s??? y??u th??ch ?? t?????ng n??y. Nh???ng ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c ???? mong ch??? c??i ng??y gi??nh l???i di s???n ????? qu???c t??? l??u, ???? l?? s??? h???u s???c m???nh qu??n s??? to l???n, bao g???m v?? kh?? h???t, nh???m c?? th??? t??? m??nh b???o v??? qu???c gia.
Nh??ng c??n ph???n l???n ng?????i d??n Nh???t B???n th?? sao, nh???ng ng?????i v???n kh??ng ch???p nh???n ?? t?????ng Nh???t B???n s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n? Ng?????i d??n Nh???t ???? kh???c s??u ni???m tin ch???ng ch??? ngh??a qu??n phi???t, ch???ng chi???n tranh v?? ch???ng h???t nh??n, nh???ng ??i???u ???? kh???c s??u trong t??m tr??  h??? su???t 70 n??m qua.
Nh???ng ni???m tin n??y ???????c ghi r?? trong ??i???u 9 c???a Hi???n ph??p Nh???t B???n, trong ???? ghi r???ng Nh???t B???n t??? b??? vi???c d??ng chi???n tranh l??m c??ng c??? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p qu???c t???. V??ng, ??i???u kho???n n??y ???? li??n t???c ???????c t??i di???n d???ch trong nhi???u th???p ni??n qua nh???m cho ph??p Nh???t B???n t??i v?? trang, ????a qu??n ?????i Nh???t ra n?????c ngo??i v?? tham gia an ninh t???p th??? v???i Hoa K???. Tuy nhi??n, ??i???u 9 v???n ???????c hi???u l?? c???m s??? h???u c??c lo???i v?? kh?? t???n c??ng, ?????c bi???t l?? l???c l?????ng h???t nh??n.
H??n n???a, khi n??i v??? v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, Nh???t B???n l?? n???n nh??n ?????c bi???t, l?? qu???c gia duy nh???t t???ng b??? bom nguy??n t??? t???n c??ng. ????y l?? nh???ng ??i???u thu???c v??? t??nh c???m v?? c??ng kh?? kh??n c???n ph???i v?????t qua ????? c?? th??? ???s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n???. M???t Nh???t B???n s??? h???u v?? kh?? h???t nh??n kh??ng ph???i l?? kh??ng th??? h??nh dung ???????c. Nh??ng ????y c??ng kh??ng ph???i l?? chuy???n c?? th??? l??m m?? kh??ng t???n qu?? nhi???u chi ph??, nhanh ch??ng, hay kh??ng t???o ra m???t c??n b??o ch??nh tr??? l???n n??o.
Richard A. Bitzinger l?? Nghi??n c???u vi??n cao c???p v?? ??i???u ph???i vi??n Ch????ng tr??nh Bi???n ?????i Qu??n s??? t???i Tr?????ng Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? S. Rajaratnam (RSIS), ?????i h???c C??ng ngh??? Nanyang, Singapore.

 
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