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Qu???c khanh Trung Qu???c nh???m h?? d???a Th??? gi???i

T??u c???ng ph??t x??t l?? th??? l???c nguy hi???m th??n t??nh to??n c???u. V???i s??? tr???i d???y sa 30, 40 n??m m??? c???a nh??? M??? gi??p s???c, n?? tr??? th??nh con s?? t??? hung d??? nh???t h??nh tinh. Nhaanloaij h??y ?????ng l??ng ti??u di???t n??!
Qu???c khanh Trung Qu???c nh???m h?? d???a Th??? gi???i
Trung Qu????c va?? chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t c???? ??i????n
 
Bo??ng m????t ng??????i li??nh tr??n n????n qu????c ky?? Trung Qu????c
Li????u Trung Qu????c co?? th???? la?? m????t c??????ng qu????c pha??t xi??t m????i?
Ta??p chi?? Far Eastern Economic Review (FEER) trong s???? tha??ng 5/2008 co?? ba??i cu??a Michael A. Ledeen d??????i t????a ?????? 'Beijing Embraces Classical Fascism' - 'B????c Kinh ti????p thu chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t c???? ??i????n' - no??i v???? ti??nh hi??nh chi??nh tri?? Trung Qu????c.

Tin cho hay, chi??nh vi?? ba??i na??y ma?? nha?? ch????c tra??ch Trung Qu????c ??a?? c????m pha??t ha??nh s???? tha??ng N??m cu??a FEER va?? b????t hu??y h????t ca??c ????n ba??n ta??i ca??c sa??p ba??o.

bbcvietnamese.com xin l??????c di??ch va?? gi????i thi????u v????i quy?? vi?? ba??i ba??o cu??a ta??c gia?? Ledeen, ng??????i t????ng tham gia U??y ban Nghi??n c????u Kinh t???? va?? An ninh Trung - My?? (2001-2003).

H????i n??m 2002, t??i ??a?? bi??nh lu????n r????ng Trung Qu????c co?? th???? ??ang tr???? tha??nh m????t qu????c gia pha??t xi??t chi??n mu????i, ??i????u ma?? chu??ng ta ch??a t????ng ????????c ch????ng ki????n. Nh????ng s???? ki????n m????i xa??y ra ta??i ????y, nh????t la?? la??n so??ng c??ng ph????n tr??????c s???? chi?? tri??ch cu??a ph????ng T??y, d??????ng nh?? ??ang kh????ng ??i??nh chu?? thuy????t na??y.

Quan tro??ng h??n n????a, trong sa??u n??m qua, ban la??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c ??a?? cu??ng c???? ki????m soa??t v??? th??? cu??a ho?? ta??i ca??c c?? quan ??????u na??o trong ca??c li??nh v????c chi??nh tri??, kinh t???? va?? v??n ho??a. Thay vi?? ti????p thu chu?? nghi??a ??a nguy??n nh?? nhi????u ng??????i tr??ng ??????i, gi????i cho??p bu n??????c na??y la??i ca??ng tr???? n??n ba??o thu?? gia??o ??i????u.

Tuy ho?? v????n t???? m????nh danh la?? 'ng??????i c????ng sa??n', ?????? hi????u ????????c n??????c C????ng ho??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa chu??ng ta n??n b????t ??????u b????ng chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t c???? ??i????n.

Ha??y hi??nh dung n??????c Y??, 50 n??m sau cu????c ca??ch ma??ng pha??t xi??t. Mussolini ??a?? ch????t, th???? nh??ng nha?? n??????c ??????c ta??i v????n c????m quy????n. H???? th????ng n??????c na??y nay d????a chu?? y????u va??o ??a??n a??p chi??nh tri??. Ca??c nha?? la??nh ??a??o kh??ng co??n theo ??u????i ly?? t??????ng ma?? tr???? n??n th????c t???? va?? hoa??i nghi. Ho?? th??????ng xuy??n h?? ha??o v???? s???? vinh quang cu??a "d??n t????c Y?? vi?? ??a??i" va?? k??u go??i noi g????ng t???? ti??n.

Ph????ng pha??p chi??nh tri??

 

Qu??n ??????i Trung Qu????c
TQ si????t ch????t ki????m soa??t chi??nh tri?? trong khi n????i lo??ng kinh t????

Nay thay va??o nh????ng do??ng tr??n cu??m t???? "d??n t????c Trung Qu????c vi?? ??a??i", ta se?? th????y th????t quen thu????c. Ban la??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c hi????n nay kh??ng co??n chi?? thu?? theo ??u????i con ????????ng g????p gh????nh va?? nguy hi????m t???? chu?? nghi??a Stalin t????i d??n chu?? n????a.

Ho?? hi????u r????ng Mikhail Gorbachev ??a?? th????t ba??i khi ??ng mu????n ki????m soa??t n????n kinh t???? trong khi cho ng??????i d??n quy????n t???? do chi??nh tri?? r????ng l????n h??n.

B????i v????y, ho?? mu????n la??m ng??????c la??i: gi???? ch????t quy????n l????c chi??nh tri?? trong khi cho phe??p la??m ??n kinh doanh m????t ca??ch t????ng ??????i t???? do. Ph????ng pha??p chi??nh tri?? cu??a ho?? g????n gi????ng nh?? nh????ng gi?? ca??c ch???? ?????? pha??t xi??t ??u ch??u t????ng la??m nhi????u n??m tr??????c.

Kh??ng gi????ng nh?? ca??c la??nh ??a??o c????ng sa??n truy????n th????ng, thi?? du?? Mao Tra??ch ????ng, ng??????i mu????n ??a??o t????n g????c v??n ho??a c???? truy????n ?????? thay va??o ??o?? b????ng chu?? nghi??a Marxist Leninist; la??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c th????i nay ha??o h????ng nh????c t????i a??nh ha??o quang cu??a li??ch s???? l??u ??????i.

Ca??c thu?? li??nh pha??t xi??t th????i nh????ng n??m 1920 va?? 1930 ha??nh x???? ??u??ng y nh?? v????y. Mussolini ta??i thi????t tha??nh Rome ?????? ta??o d????ng la??i s???? huy hoa??ng cu??a qua?? kh???? c???? ??a??i. ??ng ta cu??ng l????y li??ch s???? c???? ??a??i ra ?????? bao bi????n cho vi????c x??m chi????m Libya va?? Ethiopia.

 

 Chu??ng ta kh??ng th???? nhi??n va??o t??m can ca??c nha?? ??????c ta??i Trung Qu????c nh??ng t??i kh??ng nghi?? r????ng n??????c na??y la?? m????t h???? th????ng b????t ????n bi?? che??n e??p gi????a s???? th??i thu??c cu??a chu?? nghi??a t?? ba??n va?? tha??i ?????? tr????n a??p cu??a nha?? c????m quy????n.

 

Hitler cho ki????n tru??c s?? cu??a mi??nh x??y ca??c to??a nha?? t??n c???? ??i????n trong su????t ?????? Tam ?????? ch???? va?? b????t ca??c nha?? soa??n nha??c t???? ch????c l???? h????i ?????? ng????i ca qua?? kh???? huy????n thoa??i cu??a d??n t????c.

Cu??ng gi????ng nh?? nh????ng ng??????i ti????n nhi????m ch??u ??u, ng??????i Trung Qu????c ??o??i vi?? tri?? quan tro??ng tr??n th???? gi????i vi?? li??ch s???? va?? v??n ho??a truy????n th????ng, ch???? kh??ng pha??i vi?? hi????n tra??ng s????c ma??nh cu??a ho??.

Th????m chi?? Trung Qu????c co??n th???? nghi????m m????t s???? y?? t??????ng la?? lu??ng v????n na??y sinh t???? th????i ky?? ??????u cu??a chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t, thi?? du?? ch????ng tri??nh t???? cung t???? c????p lu??a mi?? ma?? ca?? Hitler va?? Mussolini t????ng co?? th????i theo ??u????i.

Th????i th???? ??????i thay

T????t nhi??n th???? gi????i ??a?? thay ??????i r????t nhi????u k???? t???? ??????u th???? ky?? tr??????c. Nay th????t kho?? (va?? ????i lu??c kh??ng th????) m????t mi??nh m????t chi????u. Th???? nh??ng Trung Qu????c, cu??ng gi????ng nh?? ca??c n??????c pha??t xi??t ch??u ??u, ??????c bi????t lo s???? v???? a??nh h??????ng cu??a b??n ngoa??i.

Ho?? s???? ng??????i d??n se?? quay la??i ch????ng chi??nh phu?? n????u co?? ????????c nhi????u th??ng tin v???? th???? gi????i b??n ngoa??i. B????i v????y ma?? chi??nh phu?? c???? s????c ki????m soa??t ngu????n th??ng tin va??o trong n??????c.

M????t s???? nha?? nghi??n c????u Trung Qu????c nh????n ??i??nh r????ng chi??nh quy????n B????c Kinh lo s????, th????m chi?? b????t an. ??i????u na??y ????????c minh ch????ng b????ng pha??n ????ng ma??nh me?? cu??a Trung Qu????c tr??????c b????t c???? chi?? tri??ch na??o h??????ng v???? mi??nh, t???? nh??n quy????n t????i ?? nhi????m kh??ng khi??, t???? vi????c chu????n bi?? cho Olympics B????c Kinh t????i ch????t l??????ng ha??ng ho??a xu????t kh????u.

Trong ca??c tr??????ng h????p nh?? v????y, d???? k????t lu????n r????ng chi??nh phu?? Trung Qu????c ??ang lo l????ng v???? s???? s????ng co??n cu??a mi??nh va?? ?????? khuy????ch tr????ng ca??c ti??nh ca??m d??n t????c chu?? nghi??a, ho?? pha??i quay sang m?? ta?? n??????c na??y nh?? na??n nh??n cu??a qu????c t????.

 

V???? ch????ng ??ng H???? C????m ??a??o th??m Nh????t Ba??n
La??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c m????m de??o h??n

S???? 'na??n nh??n ho??a' ba??n th??n cu??ng la?? m????t ph????n trong v??n ho??a pha??t xi??t. Gi????ng nh?? ??????c va?? Y?? th????i ky?? gi????a ca??c cu????c th???? chi????n, Trung Qu????c ca??m th????y bi?? pha??n b????i va?? si?? nhu??c, n??n ti??m ca??ch tra?? thu?? cho ca??c v????t th????ng ma?? li??ch s???? g??y ra.

????y kh??ng nh????t thi????t la?? d????u hi????u b????t an, ma?? la?? m????t chi?? d????u cho da??ng chu?? nghi??a d??n t????c qua?? khi??ch v????n lu??n la?? tro??ng t??m cu??a ca??c phong tra??o va?? chi??nh th???? pha??t xi??t.

Chu??ng ta kh??ng th???? nhi??n va??o t??m can ca??c nha?? ??????c ta??i Trung Qu????c nh??ng t??i kh??ng nghi?? r????ng n??????c na??y la?? m????t h???? th????ng b????t ????n bi?? che??n e??p gi????a s???? th??i thu??c cu??a chu?? nghi??a t?? ba??n va?? tha??i ?????? tr????n a??p cu??a nha?? c????m quy????n.

????y la?? chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t ??a?? va??o ?????? chi??n mu????i, ch???? kh??ng pha??i m????t phong tra??o qu????n chu??ng cu????ng khi??ch.

Th???? gi????i c????n la??m gi???

Li????u th???? gi????i co?? n??n chu????n bi?? cho kha?? n??ng ??????i ??????u kho?? kh??n va?? nguy hi????m v????i n??????c C????ng ho??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa hay kh??ng?

Ca??c qu????c gia pha??t xi??t th???? ky?? th???? 20 co?? ??????c ??i????m la?? r????t hi????u chi????n. ??????c Qu????c xa?? va?? pha??t xi??t Y?? ??????u chu?? tr????ng ba??nh tr??????ng. V????y li????u Trung Qu????c co?? ??ang ti??m ca??ch m???? r????ng la??nh th???? cu??a mi??nh hay kh??ng?

T??i tin r????ng c??u tra?? l????i chi??nh xa??c se?? la??: "??u??ng v????y, nh??ng...".

Nhi????u la??nh ??a??o cu??a Trung Qu????c co?? th???? mu????n t????m ki????m soa??t cu??a ho?? v??????t qua pha??m vi khu v????c. Qu??n ??????i Trung Qu????c ??ang chu????n bi?? s????c ma??nh ?????? co?? th???? ??a??nh b????t Hoa Ky?? ta??i A?? ch??u nh????m pho??ng ng????a My?? can thi????p va??o ca??c xung ??????t ngoa??i vi.

Tuy nhi??n, kh??ng gi????ng nh?? Hitler hay Mussolini, ca??c la??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c ch??a mu????n m???? r????ng la??nh th???? ??i??a ly?? m????t ca??ch nhanh cho??ng ?????? th???? hi????n s???? vi?? ??a??i cu??a ??????t n??????c va?? th????c ch????t vi????n ki????n cu??a ho??.

 

 S???? v??????t tr????i co?? nghi??a la?? ca??c n??????c kha??c pha??i quy?? g????i, pha??i cung phu??ng qu????c gia th????ng tri??.

 

Ta??m th????i, tha??nh c??ng ???? trong n??????c cu??ng s???? c??ng nh????n cu??a qu????c t???? tr??????c ca??c tha??nh t????u cu??a Trung Qu????c xem ra la?? ??u??. Chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t Trung Qu????c i??t ti??nh t?? t??????ng h??n pha??t xi??t ch??u ??u va?? la??nh ??a??o Trung Qu????c cu??ng m????m de??o h??n Hitler hay Mussolini.

Th???? nh??ng, li??ch s???? ng????n ngu??i cu??a chu?? nghi??a pha??t xi??t c???? ??i????n cho th????y r????ng vi????c Trung Qu????c ti??m ca??ch ??????i ??????u v????i ph????ng T??y chi?? la?? v????n ?????? th????i ??i????m. ??i????u ??o?? ??a?? n????m trong gien di truy????n cu??a chi??nh th???? da??ng na??y.

S????m mu????n nha?? c????m quy????n Trung Qu????c cu??ng se?? ca??m th????y nhu c????u pha??i th???? hi????n s???? v??????t tr????i cu??a h???? th????ng, va?? ngay ca?? ca??c th????ng k?? ??a??ng n???? nh????t v???? thu nh????p qu????c d??n cu??ng se?? kh??ng ??u??.

S???? v??????t tr????i co?? nghi??a la?? ca??c n??????c kha??c pha??i quy?? g????i, pha??i cung phu??ng qu????c gia th????ng tri??. Gi????ng nh?? Mussolini nhi??n vi????c thu????c ??i??a ho??a ch??u Phi, x??m chi????m Hy La??p va?? vu??ng Balkan nh?? ca??c b??????c ??i c????n thi????t ?????? thi????t l????p m????t ?????? ch???? pha??t xi??t; Trung Qu????c r????i cu??ng se?? ??o??i ca??c n??????c la??ng gi????ng, tr??????c h????t la?? ng??????i Hoa tr??n ho??n ??a??o ??a??i Loan, pha??i thu????n phu??c ?????? b???? sung vi????c l????y la??i ca??c la??nh th???? bi?? m????t va??o danh sa??ch ca??c tha??nh t????u cu??a ch???? ??????.

 

Ti????n Trung Qu????c
Cu??a ca??i kh??ng ba??o ??a??m ho??a bi??n

Ca??c n????n d??n chu?? tr??n th???? gi????i se?? pha??i ha??nh x???? th???? na??o?

??????u ti??n c????n pha??i xo??a ??i quan ni????m r????ng cu??a ca??i co?? th???? ba??o ??a??m ho??a bi??nh. Kh??ng ch????c m????t n??????c Trung Qu????c gia??u co?? se?? gia??m y?? mu????n g??y chi????n v????i ??a??i Loan hay do??a d????m Nh????t Ba??n.

S???? th????c co?? th???? la?? ng??????c la??i: Trung Qu????c ca??ng gia??u co??, qu??n ??????i cu??a ho?? ca??ng ma??nh thi?? kha?? n??ng chi????n tranh la?? ca??ng l????n.

Ph????ng T??y c????n chu????n bi?? cho chi????n tranh v????i Trung Qu????c v????i hy vo??ng tra??nh ????????c ??i????u na??y.

Trong khi ??o??, chu??ng ta c????n la??m nh????ng gi?? co?? th???? ?????? thuy????t phu??c ng??????i d??n Trung Qu????c r????ng t???? do chi??nh tri?? ca??ng l????n thi?? quy????n l????i l??u da??i cu??a ho?? ca??ng ????????c ba??o ??a??m, cho du?? nhi????u khi co?? th???? kho?? chi??u va?? l????n x????n.

N????u chu??ng ta kh??ng la??m nh????ng vi????c ??o??, nguy c?? ch????c ch????n se?? t??ng l??n va?? ca??c vu?? bu??ng n???? gi????n d???? du?? v?? ti??nh hay c???? y?? cu??a Trung Qu????c se?? co??n l????p la??i. D????n d????n, chu??ng se?? bi????n tha??nh ha??nh ??????ng.

Ba??i pha??n a??nh quan ??i????m cu??a ri??ng ta??c gia??, kh??ng pha??i cu??a BBC. Michael A. Ledeen hi????n la?? chuy??n gia v???? chi??nh sa??ch ??????i ngoa??i Hoa Ky?? ta??i Vi????n Nghi??n c????u American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research.

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