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S??? th???t v??? ba b???c th?? c???a ?????t Lai L???t Ma

H???i k?? c???a ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma th??? 14 c?? t??n ???My Land and People??? (Qu???c Th??? v?? Qu???c D??n t??i) do Ch??nh Quang d???ch v?? ????ng tr??n T???p ch?? T??? Quang s??? 182 (th??ng 10-1967). B??i vi???t ch??? g???m 6 trang nh??ng ???? cho th???y nhi???u minh ch???ng v??? m???t s??? s??? ki???n li??n quan ?????n vi???c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa t??? ch???c ????nh T??y T???ng b???ng v?? l???c v??o n??m 1950, m???c d?? ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c
S??? th???t v??? ba b???c th?? c???a ?????t Lai L???t Ma

S??? th???t v??? ba b???c th?? c???a ?????t Lai L???t Ma

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T??c gi???: Nguy???n ????ng H??a

H???i k?? c???a ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma th??? 14 c?? t??n ???My Land and People??? (Qu???c Th??? v?? Qu???c D??n t??i) do Ch??nh Quang d???ch v?? ????ng tr??n T???p ch?? T??? Quang s??? 182 (th??ng 10-1967). B??i vi???t ch??? g???m 6 trang nh??ng ???? cho th???y nhi???u minh ch???ng v??? m???t s??? s??? ki???n li??n quan ?????n vi???c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa t??? ch???c ????nh T??y T???ng  b???ng v?? l???c v??o n??m 1950, m???c d?? ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c cho l?? h??? gi???i ph??ng h??a b??nh T??y T???ng, hay h???p nh???t T??y T???ng. Sau ???? kho???ng 9 n??m, m???t l???n n???a v???n ????? T??y T???ng l???i b??ng ph??t v?? l???n n??y th?? bi k???ch x???y ra: T??y T???ng b??? chi???m ????ng v??o n??m 1959 v?? ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma c??ng Ch??nh ph??? c???a ??ng v?? d??n ch??ng ph???i l??u vong ra n?????c ngo??i. Tr?????c bi???n c??? n??y, Ng??i c?? vi???t ba b???c th?? cho t?????ng Tan Kuan-san, quy???n ?????i di???n c???a Ch??nh ph??? trung ????ng Trung Qu???c t???i T??y T???ng v?? l?? ch??nh ???y c???a Qu??n khu T??y T???ng.[1]

Nay ch??ng t??i xin tr??nh b??y l???i c??c b???c th?? ????? b???n ?????c hi???u th??m v???n ????? n??y, qua ???? c??ng cho ta th???y r?? t??m tr???ng c???a ?????t Lai L???t Ma tr?????c s??? an nguy c???a qu???c d??n c???a ??ng.

Trong c??c t??c ph???m c??? v??n c???a T??y T???ng, qu???c gia n??y th?????ng c?? t??n g???i ???Khawachen???, c?? ngh??a l?? ???X??? Tuy???t??? hay ???Sildanjong???, c?? ngh??a l?? ???V??ng ?????t kh?? h???u l???nh???. T??y T???ng ???????c th??? gi???i xem nh?? m???t qu???c gia xa x??i ??? Trung ??, ??t ng?????i lui t???i v?? quanh n??m x??? n??y ???????c bao b???c b???i c??c n??i tuy???t. T??y T???ng c?? th??? ???? l?? Lhasa (L???p T??t), n??m ???? c?? d??n s??? 40.000 tr??n t???ng s??? d??n T??y T???ng l?? 6 tri???u, trong ???? c?? kho???ng 18% l?? nh?? s?? v?? 2% l?? ni c??. Th???i xa x??a, Ph???t gi??o t??? ???n ????? b???t ?????u du nh???p v??o T??y T???ng, ?????c bi???t l?? v??o kho???ng n???a ?????u th??? k??? th??? 7 d?????i tri???u vua Songtsen Gampo (605-650). Theo truy???n thuy???t, ng?????i ta tin r???ng nh?? Vua l?? h??a th??n c???a ?????c Quan Th??? ??m B??? T??t v?? l?? v??? vua ???ng h???  Ph???t gi??o ?????u ti??n ??? T??y T???ng. Nh?? vua ?????t ra 16 ??i???u r??n ?????o ?????c khuy??n d??n ch??ng th???c h??nh theo, ???? ki???n l???p th??? ???? Lhasa v?? x??y d???ng nhi???u ch??a kh???p n??i trong n?????c. Ph???t gi??o T??y T???ng ph??t tri???n t??? ????.

Sau khi chi???m ch??nh quy???n t???i trung ????ng, ng??y 07/10/1950, qu??n ?????i Trung c???ng b???t ?????u m??? cu???c t???n c??ng s??u m???t v??o l??nh th??? T??y T???ng. Khi ???y ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma ?????i th??? 14 ???Tenzin Gyatso ??? m???i 15 tu???i. Th??ng 1 n??m 1951, ?????t Lai L???t Ma g???i th?? cho Ch??nh ph??? B???c Kinh, trong th?? n??i ???T??i l???n n??y ti???p nh???n y??u c???u ch???p ch??nh nhi???t li???t v?? th??nh kh???n c???a to??n th??? nh??n d??n T??y T???ng???, ???quy???t ?????nh ?????t ???????c h??a b??nh nh?? nguy???n v???ng c???a nh??n d??n???, ph??i ?????i bi???u ????????n Ch??nh ph??? nh??n d??n trung ????ng m??u c???u gi???i quy???t v???n ????? T??y T???ng???.

Ng??y 07/11/1950, Ng??i g???i th?? nh??? Li??n Hi???p Qu???c can thi???p gi??p ?????, nh??ng  l???i y??u c???u c???a Ng??i kh??ng ???????c ????p ???ng. C??ng l??c, ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma c??ng g???i c??ng h??m cho ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c nh???c l???i t??nh h???u ngh??? x??a nay gi???a hai n?????c v?? y??u c???u h??? r??t qu??n kh???i T??y T???ng c??ng nh?? giao tr??? c??c t?? binh T??y T???ng b??? b???t. Nh??ng ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c l??m ng??. ??i???u n??y cho th???y, v??o th???i ??i???m ???? Ng??i xem Trung Hoa v?? T??y T???ng l?? hai qu???c gia v???i hai ch??nh ph??? ri??ng bi???t.

D?????i ??p l???c qu??n s??? c???a Trung c???ng, nh???n th???y kh??ng ????? s???c ??????ng ?????u v??? m???t qu??n s???, n??n ch??nh ph??? T??y T???ng bu???c l??ng ph???i g???i ph??i ??o??n sang B???c Kinh ngh??? h??a k?? hi???p ?????c g???m 17 ??i???u v??o ng??y 23/05/1951; sau ???? nh?? c???m quy???n Trung Qu???c ???? kh??ng gi??? ????ng ho??n to??n t???t c??? nh???ng ??i???u cam k???t ???? k??.

N??m 1951, kho???ng 6.000 qu??n Trung C???ng ti???n v??o chi???m th??? ???? Lhasa. Trong n??m n??y, qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c ??p ?????t m???t Th???a ?????c g???m 17 ??i???m cho T??y T???ng v?? th???c t??? ti???n h??nh c??ch m???ng v?? s???n theo ki???u Mao tr??n hai t???nh Kham v?? Chamdo ??? mi???n ????ng.

Th??ng 2 n??m 1951, ?????t Lai L???t Ma l???nh cho Ngapoi Ngawang Jigme ?????ng ?????u l??m ?????i bi???u to??n quy???n, c??ng v???i b???n ?????i bi???u Khemey Sonam Wangdi, Thuptan Tenthar, Thuptan Lekmuun v?? Samposey Tenzin Thondup ?????n B???c Kinh to??n quy???n x??? l?? v???n ????? ????m ph??n v???i Ch??nh ph??? nh??n d??n trung ????ng.

Trung c???ng ti???n h??nh ch??nh s??ch C???i c??ch ru???ng ?????t t???i ????y, ?????n cu???i n??m 1955 t??nh h??nh l???i c??ng t???i t??? h??n.

H?? n??m 1956, ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma ???????c H???i Ma Ha B??? ????? m???i qua d??? l??? Ph???t ?????n n??m 2500 t???i ???n ?????. Trong l??c Ng??i v???ng m???t, nhi???u cu???c xung ?????t ???? x???y ra gi???a qu??n ?????i Trung Qu???c v?? T??y T???ng.

Cu???i n??m 1956, d??n ch??ng T??y T???ng b???t ?????u ??? ???t b??? n?????c ra ??i t??? n???n. ?????u n??m 1957, qu??n ?????i gi???i ph??ng T??y T???ng chi???n ?????u anh d??ng ???? l???y l???i ???????c m???t s??? c??? ??i???m do Trung c???ng chi???m ????ng tr?????c kia,

Qu??n ?????i Trung c???ng ???? ph??o k??ch, n??m bom, ph?? h???y c??c l??ng m???c, ch??a chi???n kh???p n??i. Nhi???u d??n l??nh T??y T???ng b??? tra t???n, s??t h???i. Nh???ng n??ng d??n n??o t??? ?? ch???ng ?????i ch??nh quy???n Trung Qu???c, con g??i c???a h??? t??? 13 ?????n 20 tu???i b??? c?????ng b???c l??a th??? ??i di???u h??nh ngo??i ???????ng ph???, c??c ni c?? T??y T???ng b??? l??nh Trung c???ng h??m hi???p t???p th???, ho???c b??? ?????i Trung Qu???c d??ng s??ng, l?????i l?? c?????ng b???c c??c nh?? s?? v?? ni c?? l???y nhau tr?????c m???t h???. N???n nh??n ????i khi b??? tra t???n b???ng c??ch l???t da s???ng. Ch???ng b??? t??n s??t tr?????c m???t v???; c??c ph??? n??? v?? con g??i b??? c?????ng hi???p v?? b???n ch???t tr?????c s??? ch???ng ki???n c???a th??n nh??n. Tr??? con T??y T???ng b??? b???t bu???c c???m s??ng b???n gi???t cha m???.

Cu???i n??m 1958, d??n ch??ng T??y T???ng n???i d???y ch???ng Trung Qu???c kh???p n??i.

Trong th???i gian n??y t?????ng Tan Kuan-san c?? li??n l???c v???i Ng??i v?? Ng??i ???? h???i ??m b???ng 3 l?? th?? ????? ng??y 11 v?? 12/03/1959. Theo ?????t Lai L???t Ma:[2]

??? ???Trong b???c th?? th??? nh???t, t??i n??i c??ng ??ng (T?????ng Tan Kuan San), th???t t??i b???i r???i bi???t bao tr?????c h??nh vi th?? ?????ch c???a qu???n ch??ng ?????i v???i vi???c nh?? c???m quy???n Trung Hoa (CS) th???nh m???i t??i.

B???c th?? th??? nh??, t??i b??o tin ??ng hay t??i ???? truy???n l???nh cho qu???n ch??ng gi???i t??n v??, ?????ng ?? v???i ??ng, t??i nh???n th???y v?? mu???n b???o v??? t??i, qu???n ch??ng ch??? l??m ph????ng h???i cho s??? giao h???o gi???a Trung Hoa v?? Ch??nh Ph??? T??y T???ng.

Trong b???c th?? th??? ba, t??i ng??? ?? mu???n gi???i quy???t s??? tranh ch???p gi???a phe ?????ng b??o t??i ph???n ?????i vi???c t??i ??ng thu???n ?????n tr???i c???a Trung Hoa, v???i phe t??n th??nh vi???c ???y.

???T??i th?? th???t r???ng, n???u t??i ??o??n bi???t sau n??y h??? l???i d???ng m???y b???c th?? ????? ch???ng ?????i t??i, t??i c??ng v???n g???i v?? l??c ???y t??i r???t mu???n v?? th???y c?? ph???n s??? l???n lao ng??n ng???a cu???c xung ?????t gi???a d??n T??y T???ng v?? l???c l?????ng Trung Hoa.

T??i l???p l???i r???ng t??i qu??? quy???t bao gi??? c??ng trung th??nh v???i l?? t?????ng b???t b???o ?????ng v??, nh?? th???, t??i kh??ng t??n th??nh th??i ????? hung h??ng c???a d??n ch??ng L???p- T??t, m???c d?? t??i nh???n ????ng gi?? tr??? t??nh th????ng m???n c???a h??? ?????i v???i t??i v?? t??nh th????ng ???? ch???ng minh cho cu???c to??n d??n kh???i ngh??a???.

???B???i v???y cho n??n, v???i t???t c??? th??nh th???t, ng??y ???y t??i ???? k??u g???i ch??ng d??n b??nh t??nh, v?? tuy m???y b???c th?? t??i g???i cho t?????ng l??nh Trung Hoa c?? m???c ????ch che ?????y ?? mu???n th???t s??? c???a t??i, ng??y nay t??i c??ng cho r???ng th?? ???y ho??n to??n ch??nh ????ng.???

Sau n??y Trung c???ng c??ng b??? m???y b???c th?? n??y v?? n??i r???ng Ng??i ??????? c??? s???c ?????n ???n n??u trong T???ng h??nh dinh Trung c???ng ???v?? Ng??i ???? b??? nh???ng k??? m?? h??? g???i l?? ???b?? ?????ng ph???n ?????ng???  c???m gi??? trong ?????n Norbulinka, ????? sau c??ng bu???c Ng??i ph???i t??? n???n qua ???n ?????, tr??i v???i ?? mu???n c???a Ng??i.

Trong h???i k?? c???a m??nh Ng??i n??i r??: ???M???t l???n n???a, t??i c??ng s???minh x??c vi???c t??i ???? t??? ?? r???i kh???i L???p-T??t. T??? t??i quy???t ?????nh nh?? th???v?? t??nh c??ch th???t v???ng c???a t??nh h??nh. T??i kh??ng b??? ??p l???b???m???t ngo???i bang n??o, t??i kh??ng b??? c???n th???n t??i b???t ??i, v?? n???u ?????ng b??o t??i c??? n??i xin t??i ra ??i l?? v?? th???u r?? d?? t??m Trung Hoa s???p oanh t???c T??a ?????n, n???u t??i ??? l???i Kinh ????, c?? th??? t??i b??? nguy t??nh m???ng???.

T??i qu??? quy???t v??? t?????ng Trung Hoa kh??ng h??? ??p bu???c t??i ph???i nh???nl???i m???i c???a ??ng ta, t??i kh??ng b??? nguy hi???m g?? ??e d???a v?? t??i y??u c???u m???y th??? l??nh kh??ng n??n g??y ra m???t t??nh tr???ng c?? th??? sanh h???u qu???tai h???i???..

???..Sau c??ng h??? (c??c v??? l??nh ?????o nh??n d??n T??y T???ng l??c ????) ??ng thu???n kh??ng nh??m h???p trong ?????n Norbulinka n???a, nh??ng l???i t??? ch???c nhi???u cu???c m??t tinh trong l??ng Shol, d?????i ch??n ?????n Potala, v?? sau m???i phi??n nh??m h???p s??? ph??c tr??nh t??i r??. Theo c??c ph??c tr??nh n??y, t??nh h??nh thay ?????i: Nh??n d??n ti???p t???c b???o v??? t??i v?? h??? bu???c ng?????i Trung Hoa r???i kh???i L???p-T??t v?? T??y T???ng, ????? cho ng?????i T??y T???ng t???qu???n tr??? vi???c x??? s??? h???.???

T??i nh???n ???????c b???c th?? cu???i c??ng c???a t?????ng Tan Kuan-san v??o bu???i s???ng??y 16-3 v?? t??i ???? ph??c ????p c??ng ng??y ???y.???

Ng??y 10/03/1959, qu??n ?????i Trung c???ng b???t ?????u ????nh v??o T??y T???ng; ng??y 16/03/1959 ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma ???????c tin qu??n ?????i Trung C???ng ??ang chu???n b??? ph??o k??ch cung ??i???n Potala ??? Lhasa. ????y c??ng l?? ng??y m?? ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma h???i ??m b???c th?? th??? ba, b???c th?? cu???i c??ng c???a s??? ki???n n??y.

????? ti???p t???c l??nh ?????o cu???c tranh ?????u gi???i ph??ng ?????t n?????c, Ng??i ???? quy???t ?????nh c??ng v???i m???t s??? th??n quy???n, c??c v??? b??? tr?????ng trong ch??nh ph??? v?? d??n ch??ng r???i kh???i T??y T???ng ngay trong ????m ???y.

Theo m???t t?? li???u, ???cu???c n???i d???y th??ng 3 n??m 1959 ??? Lhasa b??ng n??? t??? nh???ng n??? lo ng???i v??? m???t ??m m??u b???t c??c Dalai Lama v?? ????a ??ng ?????n B???c Kinh. Khi c??c quan ch???c qu??n ?????i Trung c???ng m???i ??ng ?????n th??m tr??? s??? c???a h??? ????? xem kinh k???ch v?? u???ng tr??, ??ng ???????c b???o l?? ph???i ?????n m???t m??nh, v?? kh??ng v??? s?? hay nh??n vi??n qu??n s??? T??y T???ng n??o ???????c ph??p ??i qua ranh gi???i khu tr??? s???.???[3]

Th???t ra, trong h???i k?? c???a m??nh, Ng??i c??ng ???? vi???t: ???N???u qu??? th???t nh?? v???y, t??i s??? b??? nguy to, v?? Trung Hoa s??? d??ng nh???ng bi???n ph??p nghi??m kh???c ?????ng ng??n c???n t??i ????o t???u???.

Qua c??c d??? ki???n tr??n cho th???y t??? nh???ng n??m 1950, ?????c ?????t Lai L???t Ma ???? c?? th??i ????? ??n h??a, mong mu???n h???p t??c c??ng ch??nh quy???n Trung c???ng tr??n t??nh th???n b???o v??? ?????o Ph??p v?? t??? do h??nh ?????o t???i Lhasa, m???i h??nh ?????ng tr?????c ???? c???a ch??nh quy???n T??y T???ng ?????u tr??n t??nh th???n b???t b???o ?????ng. Nh??ng do nh???ng ch??nh s??ch ????n ??p c???a Trung c???ng, v?? sau n??y l?? h??nh ?????ng t??n s??t gi??o d??n, n??ng d??n, m?? t??nh h??nh ch???ng ?????i ng??y c??ng b??ng ph??t. Th???c hi???n ch??nh s??ch c???i c??ch ru???ng ?????t t???i v??ng n??y, Trung Hoa ???? ph?? tan c?? c???u c???a Ch??nh ph??? t??? tr??? T??y T???ng, ph?? n??t c?? c???u gi??o h???i. Tr?????c an nguy qu???c gia, ????? xoa d???u t??nh h??nh, ????? k??o d??i th???i gian, c??? t??m con ???????ng h??a gi???i kh??c, Ng??i ???? g???i (h???i ??m) ?????n t?????ng Tan Kuan-san b???ng 3 l?? th?? n??u tr??n, ch???ng t??? ?? mu???n khoan nh?????ng ????? t??m l???i tho??t ch??? kh??ng v?? th??i ????? c???u an c???a Ng??i. Vi???c nh?? ch???c tr??ch Trung c???ng c??ng b??? 3 b???c th?? ???? l?? nh???m xuy??n t???c ?? ?????nh c???a Ng??i.

???????????????

[1] N???i dung b???n d???ch ti???ng Anh ba b???c th?? do T??n Hoa X?? c??ng b??? c?? t???i: http://www.bjreview.com/special/tibet/txt/2008-05/08/content_115524.htm

[2] Tr??ch ??? Qu???c th??? v?? Qu???c d??n t??i???, Ch??nh Quang d???ch, ????ng tr??n T???p ch?? T??? Quang s??? 182-th??ng 10 n??m 1967. Nh???ng d??ng in nghi??ng ???????c tr??ch l???i theo l???i d???ch c???a Ch??nh Quang.

[3] Theo ???10/03/1959: Cu???c n???i d???y T??y T???ng b??ng n??????, Nghiencuuquocte.org, 10/03/2016.

15/02/1942: Singapore r??i v??o tay Nh???t

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Ngu???n: Singapore falls to JapanHistory.com

Bi??n d???ch: L?? Th??? H???ng Loan | Bi??n t???p: L?? H???ng Hi???p

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1942, Singapore, ???v??ng Gibraltar ??? ph??a ????ng??? v?? m???t th??nh tr?? chi???n l?????c c???a Anh, r??i v??o tay c??c l???c l?????ng Nh???t B???n.

L?? m???t th??nh ph??? tr??n ?????o v?? l?? th??? ???? c???a Khu ?????nh c?? Eo bi???n thu???c B??n ?????o Malay, Singapore l?? thu???c ?????a c???a Anh t??? th??? k??? 19. V??o th??ng 07/1941, khi qu??n Nh???t chi???m ????ng ????ng D????ng thu???c Ph??p, Nh???t ???? b??o hi???u ?? ?????nh chi???m Singapore t??? tay Anh. V??o ????m tr?????c cu???c t???n c??ng Tr??n Ch??u C???ng, 24.000 binh s?? Nh???t ???? ???????c chuy???n t??? ????ng D????ng ?????n B??n ?????o Malay, v?? c??c m??y bay Nh???t B???n ???? kh??ng k??ch Singapore, gi???t ch???t 61 d??n th?????ng .

Tr???n chi???n gi???a c??c l???c l?????ng Nh???t B???n v?? Anh tr??n B??n ?????o Malay ???? ti???p di???n trong su???t th??ng 12 v?? th??ng 1, khi???n h??ng tr??m d??n th?????ng thi???t m???ng trong giai ??o???n n??y. Anh ???? bu???c ph???i t??? b??? v?? s?? t??n nhi???u v??? tr?? c???a h???, bao g???m c??? C???ng Swettenham v?? Kuala Lumpur.

V??o ng??y 08/02, 5.000 l??nh Nh???t ???? ????? b??? l??n ?????o Singapore. Qu??n Anh b??? ??p ?????o c??? v??? nh??n l???c v?? h???a l???c. T??? r??i tuy??n truy???n ???ng h??? Nh???t B???n ???????c th??? tr??n c??c h??n ?????o ????? k??u g???i Anh ?????u h??ng. V??o ng??y 13/02, c??c kh???u ph??o ph??ng th??? b??? bi???n c???a Singapore ???? b??? ph?? h???y. T??nh to??n sai l???m v??? m???t chi???n thu???t c???a T?????ng Anh Arthur Percival c??ng v???i th??ng tin li??n l???c k??m hi???u qu??? gi???a ch??nh quy???n qu??n s??? v?? d??n s??? ???? c???n tr??? kh??? n??ng ph??ng th??? ng??y c??ng x???u ??i c???a Anh. Cu???i c??ng, Singapore, ???????c ?????i di???n b???i T?????ng Percival v?? c??c s?? quan cao c???p c???a l???c l?????ng ?????ng minh, ???? ?????u h??ng T?????ng Nh???t Tomoyuki Yamashita tr?????c c??c m??y quay ????a tin th???i s??? c???a Nh???t B???n. S??u m????i hai ng??n l??nh ?????ng minh b??? b???t l??m t?? binh; h??n m???t n???a cu???i c??ng ???? ch???t trong t??.

V???i s??? ?????u h??ng c???a Singapore, Anh ???? m???t ??i ch??? ?????ng ??? ph??a ????ng. Th??? t?????ng Anh Winston Churchill ???? c??? g???ng n??ng cao tinh th???n b???ng c??ch th??c gi???c ng?????i Anh ???th??? hi???n s??? ??i???m t??nh v?? c??n b???ng, k???t h???p v???i quy???t t??m s???t ????, ??i???u c??ch ????y kh??ng l??u ???? ????a ch??ng ta ra kh???i nanh vu???t c???a t??? th???n.???

?????ng l???c ?????a ch??nh tr???: Trung Qu???c, T??y T???ng v?? Dalai Lama

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Ta??c gi???: Zhixing Zhang | Bi??n di??ch: Nguy????n Huy Hoa??ng

B??i li??n quan: Y???u t??? ?????a l?? c???a quy???n l???c Trung Qu???c

???Th??? l???n trong thi??n h???, c??? tan l??u r???i l???i h???p, h???p l??u r???i l???i tan,???[i] c??u v??n m???? ??????u cho Tam qu???c di???n ngh??a, cu????n ti????u thuy????t kinh ??i????n cu??a Trung Qu????c v???? chi????n tranh va?? chi????n l??????c, l?? c??ch t??m l?????c t????t nh????t c??c ?????ng l???c c???t y????u cu??a ??i??a chi??nh tri?? Trung Qu????c. Tro??ng t??m cu??a no?? la?? cu????c ??????u tranh ke??o da??i ha??ng thi??n ni??n ky?? cu??a nh????ng ke?? mu????n la??m ng??????i cai tri?? cu??a Trung Qu????c nh????m th????ng nh????t va?? cai tri?? ph????n l????n vu??ng ??i??a ly?? g????n nh?? b????t tri?? cu??a n?????c n??y. ??o?? la?? c??u chuy????n cu??a nh????ng l????c l??????ng ly t??m va?? s???? chia re?? kh??ng th???? v??????t qua b????t ngu????n t???? ??i??a ly?? va?? li??ch s???? c??ng nh??, co?? le?? c?? ba??n h??n, nh????ng l????c l??????ng h??????ng t??m h??????ng t????i s???? th????ng nh????t cu????i cu??ng.

?????ng l???c ma??nh me?? kh??ng ng????ng na??y kh??ng chi?? di???n ra ??? Trung Qu????c. Cu????c tr??ng c????u d??n y?? cu??a Scotland va?? la??n so??ng phong tra??o ly khai ??? t???? vu??ng t???? tri?? Catalonia ???? T??y Ban Nha cho t????i ng??????i Kurd ???? Iraq v?? Th???? Nhi?? Ky?? ??? ??????u ??ang di????n ra theo ca??c chi????u h??????ng kha??c nhau. H??n n????a th???? ky?? sau khi ?????? nhi?? Th???? chi????n g??y ra m????t la??n so??ng d??n t????c chu?? nghi??a h????u thu????c ??i??a la??m thay ??????i ba??n ?????? th???? gi????i, chu?? nghi??a d??n t????c va?? ca??c phong tra??o ba??n s????c d??n t????c d??????i nhi????u hi??nh th????c kha??c nhau v???n bi?? ch??n vu??i nay ??ang tha??ch th????c y?? t??????ng hi???n ?????i r???ng s???? th????ng nh????t cu??a ca??c qu????c gia ??? d??n t????c l?? b????t kha?? x??m pha??m.

C??c phong tr??o ly khai l???n tr??n th??? gi???i hi???n nay. Ngu???n: Stratfor
C??c phong tr??o ly khai l???n tr??n th??? gi???i hi???n nay. Ngu???n: Stratfor

Nh??ng ngay ca?? khi nh????ng phong tr??o n??y ch??a ?????t ???????c th??nh c??ng t???i c??c qu???c gia n??y, th?? ???? Trung Qu????c, m????t trong nh????ng v????n ?????? nan gia??i nh????t cu??a cu????c ??????u tranh cho s???? th????ng nh????t l?? ?????a v??? cu??a T??y Ta??ng l???i ???? s????n sa??ng cho m????t s???? ??a??o ng??????c kh??? d??, hay i??t nh????t la?? m????t s???? ??i????u chi??nh l????n. Ca??c cu????c ??a??m pha??n ke??o da??i nh??ng th??????ng xuy??n kh??ng ????????c chu?? y?? t????i ??a?? ????a ra kha?? n??ng Dalai Lama,[ii] la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n cu??a T??y Ta??ng, co?? th???? g????n ??a??t ????????c m????t tho??a thu????n cho phe??p ??ng tr???? v???? qu?? h????ng T??y Ta??ng cu??a mi??nh.

N????u ??i????u ??o?? xa??y ra, cu????c l??u vong cu??a Dalai Lama ta??i Dharamsala, ????n ?????? t???? sau s???? ki????n N???i d???y T??y T???ng n??m 1959, chi??n n??m sau khi C????ng ho??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa sa??p nh????p T??y Ta??ng, se?? k????t thu??c. Quan tro??ng h??n, s???? ho??a gia??i gi????a B????c Kinh va?? Dalai Lama co?? th???? la?? b??????c ti????n l????n trong vi????c xoa di??u s???? ghe?? la??nh v???? ca?? v????t ch????t cu??ng nh?? tinh th????n gi????a v??ng trung t??m Trung Qu????c va?? Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng.

T??y Ta??ng, ??????c Dalai Lama va?? quy????n t???? quy????t

S???? t????n ta??i cu??a v????n ?????? T??y Ta??ng cho th???y nh???ng xu h?????ng ch????ng che??o cu??a ??i??a chi??nh tri?? Trung Qu????c. C??n ba??n nh????t, no?? pha??i ????????c hi????u trong b????i ca??nh Trung Qu????c ??????u tranh nh????m sa??p nh????p va?? m???? r????ng quy????n ki????m soa??t l??n ca??c vu??ng ??????t bi??n c????ng ma?? du?? th??????ng xa x??i c??ch tr??? nh??ng la??i co?? y?? nghi??a chi????n l??????c v???? ca?? qu??n s???? va?? d??n c??. Nh????ng vu??ng ??????t bi??n c????ng na??y, tra??i da??i t???? ????ng b????c xu????ng t??y nam ??? Ma??n Ch??u, Cao nguy??n M??ng C????, T??n C????ng, T??y Ta??ng va?? Cao nguy??n V??n Nam ??? ta??o n??n m????t la?? ch????n, v????a ch????a ??????ng v????a che ch???? cho ph????n lo??i ng?????i Ha??n th????ng nh????t kho??i ca??c cu????c x??m l??ng tr??n ??????t li????n. Tuy nhi??n, trong n???? l????c sa??p nh????p ca??c khu v????c na??y, Trung Qu????c pha??i ??????i m????t v????i v???n ????? ba??n s????c d??n t????c cu??ng s???? chia re?? ??i??a ly?? trong nh????ng vu??ng ??????t bi??n gi????i b????t ????n v???n ti??m ca??ch kha??ng c????, ??????c l????p ho????c ta??ch kho??i Trung Qu????c va??o nh????ng th????i ??i????m khi ma?? ch??nh quy???n trung ????ng y????u ke??m la??m suy gia??m s???? g????n k????t cu??a n????i b???? Trung Qu????c.

T??y Ta??ng v???? nhi????u m????t ??a??i di????n cho m???t kh??a c???nh t???i ??a trong m???u hi??nh na??y. Th????t v????y, ??????c ??i????m ??i??a ly?? ?????c bi???t cu??a Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng (n???m ??? ?????? cao trung bi??nh 4,5 kil??m??t so v???i m????c n??????c bi????n) ???? h???u nh?? gi??p ng??n ch???n c??c ca??c m????i ??e do??a t??? bi??n c????ng ?????i v????i ph????n lo??i Ha??n so v????i nh????ng vu??ng d???? ti????p c????n h??n nh?? Ma??n Ch??u, Cao nguy??n M??ng C???? hay T??n C????ng. Co?? le?? kh??ng vu??ng bi??n thu??y n??o c?? t???m quan tr???ng l???n nh?? T??y Ta??ng trong hoa??n ca??nh ??i??a chi??nh tri?? hi????n nay cu??a Trung Qu????c. Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng va?? ca??c vu??ng l??n c????n chi????m khoa??ng m????t ph????n t?? di????n ti??ch Trung Qu????c va?? la?? m????t ngu????n n??????c ngo??t chi??nh cho n?????c n??y, Ti????u lu??c ??i??a ????n ?????? va?? ????ng Nam ?? l???c ?????a.[iii] Nh????ng ngo??n nu??i cao cu??a da??y Himalaya ta??o n??n vu??ng ??????m t???? nhi??n cho v??ng trung t??m Trung Qu????c va?? ?????nh hi??nh n??n ca??c m????i quan h???? ??i??a chi??nh tri?? ph????c ta??p gi????a n?????c n??y va?? ????n ??????.

Trong li??ch s????, s???? can thi????p cu??a Trung Qu????c va??o Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng co??n i??t va?? kh??ng c?? s???? th????ng nh????t qu????c gia. T???? th???? ky?? th???? 7, Trung Qu????c b????t ??????u co?? nh????ng c???? g????ng le?? te?? nh????m m???? r????ng t????m v????i cu??a mi??nh t????i Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng, nh??ng pha??i ??????n th????i nha?? Thanh, ?????? ch???? na??y m????i co?? nh????ng n???? l????c ??a??ng k???? trong vi????c gia??nh quy????n ki???m so??t ??????i v????i c?? c????u xa?? h????i va?? v??n ho??a T??y Ta??ng th??ng qua s???? ki????m soa??t ca??c t???? ch????c Ph????t gia??o ??? ????y. S???? suy y????u cu??a Trung Qu????c sau th????i nha?? Thanh ??a?? d????n t????i vi????c ca??c qu????c gia ngoa??i vi, bao g????m T??y Ta??ng, tu????t kho??i tay chi??nh quy????n trung ????ng Trung Qu????c.

K???? t???? khi C????ng ho??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa b????t ??????u cai tri?? T??y Ta??ng va??o n??m 1950, ca??c cu????c ??????u tranh k??o d??i ???? ???????c th???? hi????n qua s???? chia re?? chi??nh tri??, t??n gia??o va?? tinh th????n gi????a chi??nh quy???n B????c Kinh va?? ??????c Dalai Lama, bi????u t??????ng chi??nh tri?? va?? tinh th????n l??i cu????n cu??a phong tra??o t???? quy????t T??y Ta??ng, ng??????i lu??n ch????ng la??i s???? th????ng tri?? v???? mo??i m????t cu??a Trung Qu????c ??????i v????i v??ng ?????t n??y. ???? ????y, qua?? tri??nh ??i??a chi??nh tri?? th?????ng kh??ng mang t??nh c?? nh??n ???? ??????i m????t v????i m????t ca?? nh??n hi????m hoi mang a??nh h??????ng l??u da??i. ??????c Dalai Lama ??a?? t????p trung v????n ?????? T??y Ta??ng va??o chi??nh mi??nh va?? hi??nh a??nh cu??a mi??nh. Ch??nh Dalai Lama l?? ng??????i ??a??i di????n cho ba??n s????c T??y Ta??ng ???? n??????c ngoa??i, gi??p g???n k???t ca??c phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng nh??? l??? la??i v????i nhau, v?? gi???? a??nh h??????ng ?????i v???i ca?? ng??????i T??y Ta??ng ba??n ??i??a ???? qu?? h????ng va?? nh????ng th???? h???? ng??????i T??y Ta??ng l??u vong cu?? va?? m????i.

Cu????c ??????u tranh l??u da??i va?? nh????ng b??????c ??i ta??m th????i

D??????i chi??nh th???? C????ng ho??a Nh??n d??n, Trung Qu????c co?? s??? ki???m so??t t??? trung ????ng va?? ro?? ra??ng tr??n th????c t???? ?????i v????i m????t trong nh????ng qu????c gia l????n nh????t va?? an toa??n nh????t trong li??ch s???? ca??c tri????u ??a??i Trung Hoa. Tuy nhi??n, ??????ng l???c t??? x??a nh???m n???m ch???c v??ng ngoa??i bi??n kh??ng pha??i kh??ng ????????c t??nh ?????n b????i gi???i la??nh ??a??o C????ng sa??n Trung Qu????c.

Trong nh????ng n??m qua, chi??nh quy????n trung ????ng ??a?? ??????y ma??nh vi????c t??ng c??????ng s???? th????ng tri?? cu??a ng??????i Ha??n v???? kinh t???? va?? nh??n kh???u h???c l??n ca??c vu??ng bi??n a??i trong khi c???? g????ng v??????t qua nh????ng ra??o ca??n v???? khoa??ng ca??ch ??i??a ly?? th??ng qua ca??c d???? a??n c?? s???? ha?? t????ng hoa??nh tra??ng, b????ng ca?? ????????ng b???? va?? ????????ng s????t. Tuy nhi??n, s???? chia re?? v????i Dalai Lama ??a?? khi????n B????c Kinh pha??i ??????i m????t v????i c???m nh???n r????ng vi????c ki????m soa??t Cao nguy??n T??y Ta??ng cu??a ho?? ch??a tr???n v???n va?? ti??nh h????p pha??p c???a h??? b??? nghi ng???. Trong khi ??o??, uy ti??n qu????c t???? cu??a Dalai Lama khi????n chi??nh quy????n trung ????ng Trung Qu????c d??? b??? ch??? tr??ch b???i nhi????u nha?? ph?? bi??nh qu????c t????. H??n n????a, no?? co??n cho New Delhi c?? h????i ?????? khai tha??c ca??c m????i quan ng???i cu??a Trung Qu????c b????ng vi????c cho phe??p Ch??nh ph??? l??u vong T??y T???ng va?? Dalai Lama l??u tru??.

B????c Kinh kh??ng th??? cho phe??p quy????n t???? chu?? theo y??u c????u cu??a phong tra??o l??u vong T??y Ta??ng; t???? quy????n t???? chu?? ma??nh me?? ??????n tr????c ti????p tha??ch th????c la?? m????t con ????????ng ng????n. Chi????n l??????c cu??a B????c Kinh la?? c???? g????ng la??m ha?? th????p uy ti??n qu????c t???? cu??a Dalai Lama, ha??n ch???? s???? t????ng t??c gi????a c????ng ??????ng l??u vong v????i ng??????i T??y Ta??ng ???? qu?? h????ng, va?? hi vo??ng khi vi?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n n??y ch????t ??i, s???? thi????u v????ng ca?? ti??nh ma??nh me?? cu??a ??ng se?? khi????n T??y Ta??ng r??i va??o ti??nh tra??ng kh??ng co?? trung t??m, cu??ng nh?? kh??ng co?? ng??????i na??o co?? th???? thu hu??t s???? chu?? y?? cu??a c????ng ??????ng qu????c t???? ????????c nh?? Dalai Lama n???a.

Tr???ng t??m trong ti??nh to??n cu??a B????c Kinh la?? vi???c can thi????p va??o qua?? tri??nh k???? vi?? ma?? theo ??o?? B????c Kinh ????i quy????n chi?? ??i??nh ng??????i k???? nhi????m t??n gia??o cu??a Dalai Lama, qua ??o?? khai th??c s??? chia r??? gi???a c??c gia??o pha??i va?? phe pha??i trong Ph????t gia??o T??y Ta??ng. B????c Kinh kh????ng ??i??nh qua?? tri??nh lu??n h????i chuy???n ki???p c???a Dalai Lama[iv] pha??i tu??n theo truy????n th????ng t??n gia??o T??y Ta??ng k???? t???? th????i nha?? Thanh, co?? nghi??a la?? no?? pha??i xa??y ra trong la??nh th???? T??y Ta??ng va?? co?? ???ng h??? cu??a chi??nh quy????n trung ????ng. Qua?? tri??nh n??y nh????n ma??nh vi?? th???? cu??a T??y Ta??ng nh?? la?? m????t ph????n cu??a Trung Qu????c, ch???? kh??ng pha??i m????t th????c th???? ??????c l????p.

K???? hoa??ch cu??a B????c Kinh co?? th???? c?? t??c d???ng, nh??ng ca??i gia?? se?? la?? r????t cao. N????u kh??ng ????????c Dalai Lama c??ng nh????n, ng??????i k???? nhi????m ????????c B????c Kinh b???? nhi????m ??? va?? r????ng h??n la?? th???m quy????n cu??a B????c Kinh ?????i v???i T??y Ta??ng ??? kho?? co?? th???? ????????c c????ng ??????ng ng??????i T??y Ta??ng n??i chung c??ng nh????n. Nh????m ch????ng la??i nh????ng n???? l????c can thi????p cu??a B????c Kinh, nh???ng n??m g????n ????y Dalai Lama ??a?? nhi????u l????n tuy??n b???? h??m ?? r????ng nh????ng truy????n th????ng c???? x??a cu??a qua?? tri??nh k???? vi?? co?? th???? bi?? pha?? v????.

??????c bi????t, Dalai Lama ??a?? ba??n v???? kha?? n??ng k???? vi?? qua ho??a th??n (emanation) ch???? kh??ng pha??i lu??n h????i chuy???n ki???p (reincarnation). ??i????u na??y co?? th???? truy????n ki????n th????c va?? uy quy????n cu??a ??ng cho nhi????u ca?? nh??n kha??c nhau, m????i ng??????i ??????u la?? m????t ph????n di sa??n tinh th????n cu??a ??ng, nh??ng kh??ng ai la?? ng??????i k???? vi?? duy nh????t. Ho??a th??n co?? th???? ????????c th????c hi????n khi Dalai Lama co??n s????ng, do ??o?? ??ng co?? th???? ki????m soa??t ????????c qua?? tri??nh chuy????n giao. ??ng cu??ng nh????c ??????n kha?? n??ng kh??ng ch??? ?????nh m???t ng??????i k???? nhi????m n??o ??? nh?? th???? vo??ng lu??n h????i cu??a Dalai Lama se?? ch????m d????t, ?????? la??i di sa??n cu??a ??ng nh?? la?? m????t tro??ng t??m l??u da??i cho ng??????i T??y Ta??ng.

Cu?? th???? h??n, Dalai Lama ??a?? t??ch bi???t vai tro?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n va?? chi??nh tri?? cu??a phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng, tr??n danh nghi??a t???? bo?? vai tr?? l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? nh??ng gi???? nguy??n vai tr?? l??nh ?????o tinh th???n. La??m nh?? v????y, ??ng ??ang c???? g????ng ta??o ra ti??nh li??n tu??c cho phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng cho du?? nh????ng ng??????i k???? nhi????m tinh th????n cu??a ??ng ch??a ????????c xa??c ??i??nh. Tuy nhi??n, no?? cu??ng ta??ch Dalai Lama ra kho??i b????t ky?? phong tra??o chi??nh tri?? T??y Ta??ng na??o, ??i???u tr??n ly?? thuy????t gi??p nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n na??y v?? B????c Kinh d???? da??ng ??a??t ????????c m????t tho??a thu????n h??n v???? kha?? n??ng ??ng quay v??? T??y T???ng trong vai tr?? m????t nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n ch??? kh??ng ph???i m???t nh?? l??nh ?????o chi??nh tri??.

Nh??ng nh????ng ??????ng tha??i cu??a Dalai Lama pha??n a??nh m????t th????c t???? s??u h??n. Phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng la?? kh??ng ??????ng nh????t. Ph????t gia??o T??y Ta??ng co?? nhi????u tr??????ng ph??i v???n v???n ??ang c??? g???ng duy tr?? s??? h????p ta??c mong manh b????i lo??ng t??n tro??ng ??????i v????i Dalai Lama. Ca??c phong tra??o chi??nh tri?? T??y Ta??ng cu??ng bi?? chia nho??, v????i nh????ng ng??????i T??y Ta??ng tre?? ????????c sinh ra ???? n??????c ngoa??i th??????ng hoa??t ??????ng ma??nh me?? h??n cho ??????c l????p cu??a T??y Ta??ng, trong khi nh????ng ng??????i l??u vong l????n tu????i co?? gio??ng ??i????u ??n ho??a h??n va?? ch??? k??u go??i quy????n t???? chu?? nhi????u h??n n????a. Con ????????ng ?????u tranh ho??a bi??nh ma?? Dalai Lama thu??c ??????y ????????c t??n tro??ng, nh??ng kh??ng ????????c ??a??m ba??o vi??nh vi????n b????i ca??c th??nh ph???n tre?? h??n va?? c???p ti???n h??n cu??a phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng, nh???ng ng?????i chi?? ta??m th????i t???? bo?? vi????c s???? du??ng ba??o l????c ?????? ??a??t ????????c ca??c mu??c ??i??ch chi??nh tri?? cu??a ho??.

T????ng lai cu??a phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng sau khi Dalai Lama qua ??????i la?? kh??ng ch????c ch????n. ???? m????c t????i thi????u, danh ti????ng cu??a nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n ??????ng nghi??a v????i vi????c kh??ng m????t ng??????i k???? nhi????m na??o co?? th???? co?? cu??ng m????c ?????? a??nh h??????ng ho????c duy tr?? ???????c s???? g????n k????t n????i b???? nh?? ??ng ??a?? la??m. Cu??ng nh?? Dalai Lama lo nga??i m????t ca??nh c????c ??oan cu??a th???? h???? ng??????i T??y Ta??ng m????i se?? la??m suy y????u t?? t??????ng ??n ho??a cu??a ??ng va?? la??m suy y???u ti??nh h????p pha??p cu??a phong tra??o, B????c Kinh c??ng s???? r????ng th????i ky?? h????u Dalai Lama se?? ??em ??????n nhi????u phong tra??o c????c ??oan, ly khai ho????c th????m chi?? qu??n s????, ??????t B????c Kinh v??o m????t vi?? tri?? kho?? kh??n h??n nhi????u va?? co?? kha?? n??ng pha??i ??????i m????t v????i m????i ??e do??a an ninh l????n h??n.

B????c Kinh va?? Dalai Lama t????ng cho th????y s???? s????n sa??ng ?????? ??a??t ????????c m????t gia??i pha??p chi??nh tri?? trong qua?? kh????, nh??ng nh????ng n???? l????c cu??a ho?? ??a?? th????t ba??i. Trong khi s???? b???t ?????nh l???n d???n l??n ?????i v????i ca?? hai phi??a trong b????i ca??nh nh????ng lo nga??i v???? tu????i ta??c cu??a Dalai Lama va?? nh????ng ??????ng l????c thay ??????i trong n??????c m?? chu?? ti??ch m????i cu??a Trung Qu????c T????p C????n Bi??nh ph???i ?????i m???t, ca?? hai b??n co?? th???? xem vi???c t??? b??? nh????ng th?? ?????ch tr??????c ????y nh?? la?? m????t b??????c ??i h????p ly?? nh????m h??????ng t????i m????t gia??i pha??p v????i chi ph?? th????p. No??i ca??ch kha??c, ca?? B????c Kinh va?? Dalai Lama ??? va?? r????ng h??n la?? nh????ng ng??????i u??ng h???? ??ng ??? ??????u hi????u ho?? co??n r???t i??t th????i gian nh?? th??? n??o, va?? vi???c nh????ng b????t ?????nh xoay quanh v????n ?????? T??y Ta??ng co?? th???? ke??o da??i ma??i ma??i ra sao sau ca??i ch????t cu??a nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n n????u hai b??n kh??ng ?????t ???????c m????t gia??i pha??p.

Hi????n ta??i la??c quan, t????ng lai de?? ch????ng

Ba??o ca??o v???? vi????c Dalai Lama co?? th???? tr???? v???? T??y Ta??ng ????????c ????a ra khi B????c Kinh ??a?? n????i la??i ca??c cu????c ??a??m pha??n v????i nh????ng ng??????i ??a??i di????n cu??a nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n na??y. Vo??ng ??a??m pha??n na??y di????n ra sau chi??n vo??ng ??a??m pha??n th????t ba??i trong th????p ky?? tr??????c va?? b????n n??m sau n???? l????c cu????i cu??ng. Tuy nhi??n, t??m th???? cu??a ca?? hai b??n i??t nh????t ph????n na??o cu??ng co?? ve?? la??c quan. Trong nh????ng tu????n g????n ????y, Dalai Lama ??a?? ????a ra nh????ng l????i bi??nh lu????n mang ti??nh ho??a gia??i v???? T????p C????n Bi??nh va?? cho bi????t ??ng co?? th???? s???n s??ng tr???? v???? T??y Ta??ng, m????t ??????c mu????n t???? l??u cu??a nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n 79 tu????i na??y. V???? ph????n mi??nh, B????c Kinh ??a?? tha?? t???? do cho m????t s???? tu?? nh??n chi??nh tri?? T??y Ta??ng va?? ????????c cho l?? ???? cho phe??p s???? du??ng hi??nh a??nh cu??ng nh?? ph??t ng??n cu??a Dalai Lama ta??i m????t s???? khu v????c nh????t ??i??nh ???? T??y Ta??ng sau nhi????u n??m c????m ??oa??n.

T????t nhi??n, co??n nhi????u ??i????u kh??ng ch????c ch????n xung quanh s???? tr???? v???? cu??a Dalai Lama; vi????c no?? co?? di????n ra hay kh??ng th????m chi?? co??n ch??a r?? r??ng. Th????t v????y, c????n m???t n???? l????c r????t l????n ?????? c?? th??? v??????t qua ???????c m????i quan h???? thu?? ??i??ch ??a?? ke??o da??i 55 n??m, va?? ngay ca?? khi Dalai Lama ????????c cho phe??p tr???? v???? T??y Ta??ng, ??i????u ??o?? chi?? la?? m????t trong nhi????u b??????c ti????n trong nh????ng cu????c ??a??m pha??n r????ng h??n gi????a B????c Kinh va?? c????ng ??????ng ng??????i T??y Ta??ng l??u vong ?????? ??a??t ????????c m????t tho??a thu????n, bao g????m kha?? n??ng ta??i ??i??nh c?? cho 200.000 ng??????i T??y Ta??ng l??u vong, ti??nh tra??ng cu??a chi??nh phu?? l??u vong, th????m quy????n cu??a ??a??t-lai La??t-ma, va?? cu????i cu??ng la?? qua?? tr??nh k???? vi?? c???a nh?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n.

Trong nh????ng n??m qua, Dalai Lama ??a?? nhi????u l????n ba??y to?? mong mu????n ma??nh me?? ????????c tr???? v???? qu?? h????ng T??y Ta??ng, coi no?? nh?? la?? ??i??ch ??????n cu????i cu??ng trong nh????ng n???? l????c l??u da??i cu??a ??ng nh????m gia??nh quy????n t???? chu?? cho T??y Ta??ng. Du?? lu??n ????? ng??? l???a ch???n n??y, B????c Kinh ???? nhi???u l???n nh???n m???nh r???ng b????t c???? cu????c ??????i thoa??i na??o v????i Dalai Lama c??ng ch??? li??n quan t???i pha??m vi tho??a thu????n v????i nha?? la??nh ??a??o tinh th????n n??y m?? th??i, ?????ng th???i kh??ng mang h??m ?? chi??nh tri?? n??o.

No??i ca??ch kha??c, b????t c???? tho??a thu????n na??o d????a tr??n ti????n ?????? m???? r????ng quy????n t???? chu?? cho T??y Ta??ng ??????u kh??ng pha??i la?? l????a cho??n cu??a B????c Kinh, va?? th????m quy????n cu??a B????c Kinh ??????i v????i ca??c vu??ng ??????t T??y Ta??ng ??? va?? r????ng h??n la?? ca??c vu??ng bi??n a??i ???? T??n C????ng va?? N????i M??ng ??? se?? kh??ng thay ?????i. T????ng t????, Dalai Lama se?? kh??ng ch????p nh????n vi????c th???m quy????n v???? tinh th????n cu??a ??ng ??????i v????i c????ng ??????ng ng??????i T??y Ta??ng hay vai tro?? cu??a ??ng trong vi????c l????a cho??n ng??????i k???? nhi????m bi?? suy y????u. Tuy nhi??n, v????i m????i lo nga??i cu??a B????c Kinh v???? s???? gia t??ng cu??a ca??nh c????p ti????n trong phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng ???? n??????c ngoa??i, vi????c cho phe??p Dalai Lama tr???? v???? T??y Ta??ng co?? th???? la??m xoa di??u m????t s???? c??ng th????ng va?? mang l???i cho B????c Kinh m????t ca??ch ?????? chia re?? va?? la??m suy y????u phong tra??o T??y Ta??ng.

N???u ti????n t????i m????t tho??a thu????n, hai b??n c????n pha??i chu????n bi?? cho m????t s???? ru??i ro chi??nh tri??. V????i B????c Kinh, m????i quan t??m ha??ng ??????u se?? la?? vi????c qua??n ly?? s????c a??nh h??????ng t??n gia??o to l????n cu??a Dalai Lama tr??n qu?? nha??, n??i ??ng ????????c xem la?? m????t tha??ch th????c ?????i v???i vai tr?? la??nh ??a??o chi??nh tri?? cu??a ??a??ng C????ng sa??n Trung Qu????c. V????i Dalai Lama, m????i quan t??m chu?? y????u se?? la?? vi????c qua??n ly?? vai tro?? la??nh ??a??o chi??nh tri?? T??y Ta??ng ???? n??????c ngoa??i va?? nh????ng h????u qua?? ti????m ????n trong phong tra??o l??u vong t???? vi????c tho??a thu????n ??ang ???????c x??y d????ng ??i ng??????c la??i mu??c ??i??ch gia??nh quy????n t???? chu?? cho T??y Ta??ng cu??a ho??.

Co?? le?? quan tro??ng h??n l?? ngay ca?? khi co?? nh????ng d????u hi????u cho th???y m????t gia??i ph??p ??ang ???????c h??nh th??nh, th?? v????n ?????? ng??????i k???? vi?? v???n r????t co?? th???? la?? m????t ra??o ca??n. B????c Kinh d??????ng nh?? kh??ng ????a ra b????t ky?? s???? nh??????ng b???? na??o li??n quan ?????n th????m quy????n chi?? ??i??nh nh?? la??nh ??a??o lu??n h????i cu??a ho??, va?? Dalai Lama cho th????y ??ng i??t co?? y?? ??i??nh cho phe??p B????c Kinh ????n ph????ng ha??nh ??????ng.

??????ng ??????u v????i m????t l????i nguy????n ??i??a chi??nh tri??

Cho du?? co?? nh????ng s???? b????t ?????nh, nghi v????n va?? ru??i ro, th?? nh????ng h????u qua?? ti????m ????n cu??a kha?? n??ng xi??ch la??i g????n nhau gi???a hai b??n du?? mong manh c??ng ??a?? minh ho??a cho s??? v???n ?????ng ??i??a chi??nh tri?? t??? xa x??a t???i Trung Qu????c.

Tr?????ng h???p n??y m????t l????n n????a cho th???y ca??ch m????t ca?? nh??n co?? th???? ??o??ng m????t vai tro?? nh????t ??i??nh trong ??i??a chi??nh tri??, ?????ng th???i kha?? n??ng ho??a gia??i gi????a B????c Kinh va?? Dalai Lama co?? th???? a??nh h??????ng t????i s???? c??n b????ng gi????a Trung Qu????c va?? ????n ??????. Trung Qu????c t???? l??u ??a?? xem quy????t ??i??nh cu??a ????n ?????? cho phe??p chi??nh phu?? l??u vong T??y Ta??ng n????ng n??u la?? m????t ??????ng tha??i th?? ?????ch. Tuy nhi??n, kha?? n??ng khai kha??c nh????ng m????i quan ng???i cu??a Trung Qu????c v???? T??y Ta??ng cu??a ????n ?????? ??a?? gia??m do s????c a??nh h??????ng cu??a chi??nh phu?? l??u vong va?? vi???c n?? tuy??n b???? ?????i di???n cho T??y Ta??ng nh?? m????t th????c th???? h????p pha??p.

Khu v???c ?????nh c?? c???a ng?????i T??y T???ng t???i ???n ?????. Ngu???n: Stratfor
Khu v???c ?????nh c?? c???a ng?????i T??y T???ng t???i ???n ?????. Ngu???n: Stratfor

Hi????n ta??i, New Delhi ??a?? cho th????y ho?? i??t nhi????t tha??nh h??n trong vi????c ch????p nh????n nh????ng ng??????i T??y Ta??ng ti?? na??n, ?????ng th???i ng??y c??ng quan ng???i r???ng s???? chia r??? n????i b???? cu??a c????ng ??????ng n??y se?? khi????n vi????c ch????a ch????p h??? tr???? tha??nh g??nh n???ng h??n la?? l????i i??ch. Tuy nhi??n, vi????c co?? ???????c m????t d??n x???p se?? kh??ng loa??i bo?? s???? ??????i ??????u c??n ba??n v???? ??i??a chi??nh tri?? gi????a ????n ?????? va?? Trung Qu????c tr??n ca??c m????t kha??c ??? t???? 4.000 kil??me??t ????????ng bi??n gi????i tr??n ??????t li????n t????i ca??nh tranh ha??ng ha??i tr??n ????n ?????? D????ng va?? Bi????n ????ng cu??ng nh?? ca??c cu????c ca??nh tranh gia??nh ta??i nguy??n va?? n??ng l??????ng.

Ngay ca?? khi co?? m????t gia??i pha??p cho v????n ?????? T??y Ta??ng xu????t hi????n trong t????ng lai xa, cu??ng kh??ng co?? nghi??a la?? cu????c ??????u tranh Trung Qu????c ??? T??y Ta??ng se?? k????t thu??c. Th????t v????y, t???? n??m 2009 ??a?? co?? nhi????u ng??????i T??y Ta??ng t???? thi??u, va?? s???? pha??t tri????n kinh t???? cu??a B????c Kinh trong nhi????u vu??ng ??????t bi??n c????ng c???a ng?????i d??n t????c thi???u s??? ????????c cho la?? khi????m khuy????t ho????c kh??ng ??????y ??u??. R????t co?? th????, s???? ho??a di??u v????i Dalai Lama se?? d????n ??????n vi???c c??c ph????n t???? c????c ??oan v?? c???p ti???n h??n xu???t hi???n ???? n??????c ngoa??i, ti??m ki????m quy????n t???? quy????t va??, nh?? nhi????u phong tr??o t????ng t??? tr??n th???? gi????i ??? t???? Scotland ??????n ng??????i Kurd ???? Trung ????ng ??? tha??ch th????c ca??c l????c l??????ng h??????ng t??m cu??a ca??c qu????c gia ??? d??n t????c.

Trong li??ch s????, khi ng??????i Ha??n l????n ma??nh th?? s??? ki????m soa??t c???a h??? ?????i v???i ca??c vu??ng ??????m c??ng v???ng ch???c. Ng??????c la??i, ca??c vu??ng ??????m v???ng ch???c c??ng la?? ??i????u ki????n ti??n quy????t cho s??? l????n ma??nh va?? an toa??n c???a ng?????i H??n. S???? s????p ??????t na??y se?? tr???? n??n t????i quan tro??ng khi B????c Kinh pha??i v????t l????n v????i nh????ng tha??ch th????c ti????m ????n trong qu?? tr??nh chuy????n ??????i xa?? h????i, kinh t???? va?? chi??nh tri?? t???i ph????n lo??i ng?????i Ha??n trong nh????ng n??m s????p t????i. Do ??o??, m????c cho s???? bi????n ??????i kh??ng ng????ng ????????c nh????c t????i trong c??u n??i tri??ch t???? Tam qu????c di????n nghi??a, v????i B????c Kinh, mu??c ti??u cu????i cu??ng v???n la?? ph???i ??????i ??????u v????i l????i nguy????n ??i??a chi??nh tri?? c???? x??a b????ng ca??ch a??p ??????t ki????m soa??t l??n nh????ng vu??ng ??????t bi??n gi????i va?? th????ng nh????t Trung Qu????c vi??nh vi????n, d????u cho mu??c ti??u na??y co?? phi th????c t???? ??????n th???? na??o ??i ch??ng n???a.

Zhixing Zhang (Tr????ng Tri Ha??nh) la?? chuy??n vi??n ph??n t??ch cao c???p v??? khu v???c ch??u ?? Th??i B??nh D????ng ta??i Stratfor.

Ba??n g????c ti????ng Anh: Stratfor

??????????????????-

[i] La Qua??n Trung, Tam qu????c di????n nghi??a. Ba??n di??ch cu??a Phan K???? Bi??nh. (ND)

[ii] Dalai Lama la?? danh hi???u c???a nh?? l??nh ?????o tinh th???n c???a Ph???t gi??o T??y T???ng. Dalai Lama hi????n nay la?? vi?? th???? 14, ??a?? ????????c trao gia??i Nobel Ho??a bi??nh n??m 1989. (ND)

[iii] ????ng Nam A?? lu??c ??i??a bao g????m Myanmar, Tha??i Lan, La??o, Campuchia, Vi????t Nam, va?? Malaysia b??n ?????o. (ND)

[iv] Ng??????i T??y Ta??ng cho r????ng m????i vi?? Dalai Lama trong hi????n ta??i la?? hi????n th??n cu??a vi?? Dalai Lama trong ki????p tr??????c. (ND)


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