Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n

Chủ nhật - 04/08/2019 23:54
Tuy???n ???????ng s???t t????ng lai c?? h??n 400 km c???t ngang qua c??c khu r???ng nhi???t ?????i c???a L??o. Nh???ng con t??u s??? s???m l??n b??nh ??? qua nh???ng c??y c???u, nh???ng ???????ng h???m v?? nh???ng con ?????p ???????c x??y d???ng ri??ng cho tuy???n ???????ng s???t, ch???y t??? bi??n gi???i ph??a B???c c???a Trung Qu???c cho ?????n th??? ???? Vi??ng Ch??n c???a L??o b??n b??? s??ng Mekong n??y.
Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n
Ti???n Trung Qu???c t???o r???i ro cho c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n


Gi???i thi???u: Tr???n Quang
Tuy???n ???????ng s???t t????ng lai c?? h??n 400 km c???t ngang qua c??c khu r???ng nhi???t ?????i c???a L??o. Nh???ng con t??u s??? s???m l??n b??nh ??? qua nh???ng c??y c???u, nh???ng ???????ng h???m v?? nh???ng con ?????p ???????c x??y d???ng ri??ng cho tuy???n ???????ng s???t, ch???y t??? bi??n gi???i ph??a B???c c???a Trung Qu???c cho ?????n th??? ???? Vi??ng Ch??n c???a L??o b??n b??? s??ng Mekong n??y.
Sau 5 n??m x??y d???ng, tuy???n ???????ng s???t d??? ki???n s??? ??i v??o ho???t ?????ng v??o n??m 2021. Tr?????ng b??? ph???n ph??a Trung Qu???c ch???c ch???n r???ng n?? s??? ???????c ho??n th??nh ????ng h???n. ??ng n??i: ???Ri??ng v??n ph??ng c???a ch??ng t??i tuy???n 4.000 c??ng nh??n???. Ng??n s??ch c??ng kh??ng thi???u: Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? d??nh kho???ng 6 t??? USD cho d??? ??n n??y v?? g???n ????y ???? tr??? th??nh ch??? n??? l???n nh???t c??ng nh?? nh?? cung c???p vi???n tr??? ph??t tri???n quan tr???ng nh???t c???a L??o.
X??t cho c??ng, Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? tr???c ti???p t??i tr??? 70% tuy???n ???????ng s???t m???i, m?? h??? c??n ??ang x??y d???ng c??c con ?????p, tr?????ng h???c, b???nh vi???n qu??n y v?? th???m ch?? c??n gi??p L??o ph??ng m???t v??? tinh li??n l???c v??o kh??ng gian. Th??ng 4/2019, Trung Qu???c ???? cho L??o vay th??m 40 tri???u USD ????? x??y d???ng ???????ng b??? ??? m???t kho???n t??n d???ng ???????c c???p th??ng qua Ng??n h??ng ?????u t?? c?? s??? h??? t???ng ch??u ?? (AIIB) c?? tr??? s??? t???i B???c Kinh, m???t th??? ch??? t??i ch??nh m?? Trung Qu???c th??nh l???p ????? thay th??? cho c??c ng??n h??ng ph??t tri???n c???a ph????ng T??y.
N???u t??nh c??? Hong Kong, th?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng ch??? l?? ch??? n??? l???n nh???t c???a L??o m?? c???a c??? th??? gi???i. C??c kho???n B???c Kinh cho n?????c ngo??i vay chi???m l??nh c??c th??? tr?????ng to??n c???u ??? m???c g???n nh?? ngang v???i ????? ch??i, ??i???n tho???i th??ng minh v?? xe m??y ??i???n. T??? Kenya t???i Montenegro, t??? Ecuador ?????n Djibouti, ???????ng s??, c??c con ?????p v?? nh?? m??y ??i???n ??ang ???????c x??y d???ng v???i nh???ng kho???n vay tr??? gi?? h??ng t??? USD t??? B???c Kinh. V?? t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia n??y s??? ph???i tr??? n??? c??ng v???i l??i su???t trong nhi???u n??m t???i.
C??n l?? v???n t??? Trung Qu???c gi??p ng??n n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u r??i v??o t??nh tr???ng ????nh tr??? sau v??? ph?? s???n c???a Lehman Brothers v?? cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh di???n ra sau ????. Nh??ng ??i???u n??y kh??ng ph???i l?? kh??ng g??y tranh c??i.
?????i v???i nhi???u n?????c, h??ng t??? USD t??? Trung Qu???c l?? m???t ????ng g??p ????ng hoan ngh??nh nh???m gi??p nhi???u khu v???c k??m ph??t tri???n ??? ch??u ?? v?? ch??u Phi m??? r???ng c?? s??? h??? t???ng. ?????i v???i c??c n?????c kh??c, nh???ng kho???n vay t??? B???c Kinh ???? khi???n m???t n???a th??? gi???i ph???i ph??? thu???c v??o B???c Kinh v??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr???. M???t s??? ng?????i ???? m?? t??? t??nh hu???ng n??y l?? ???s??? l??? thu???c v?? n??????, trong khi ???? m???t nh??m th?????ng ngh??? s?? M??? ???? vi???t m???t l?? th?? g???i Ngo???i tr?????ng Mike Pompeo v??o m??a H?? n??m 2018 ????? c???nh b??o v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c ??ang ???n??? l???c bi???n v???n th??nh v?? kh?????.
Thi???u s??? minh b???ch
H??n n???a, g???n nh?? kh??ng c?? m???y th??ng tin v??? c??c kho???n vay n??y. T??i s???n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i hi???n tr??? gi?? 6.000 t??? USD, nh??ng ngo??i ch??nh ph??? ??? B???c Kinh, kh??ng ai bi???t g?? nhi???u v??? vi???c s??? ti???n ???? s??? ???????c ?????u t?? v??o ????u v?? ??i k??m nh???ng ??i???u ki???n v?? r???i ro g??. T???ng gi??m ?????c Qu??? ti???n t??? qu???c t??? (IMF) Christine Lagarde cho bi???t v?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng cung c???p to??n b??? s??? s??ch k??? to??n cho c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t??? nh?? Ng??n h??ng th??? gi???i v?? IMF, n??n c??c kho???n vay n??y thi???u s??? minh b???ch c???n thi???t.
Tuy nhi??n gi??? ????y, v???i vi???c m???t nghi??n c???u do nh??m h???c gi??? ?????c v?? M??? d?????i s??? d???n d???t c???a Gi??o s?? ?????i h???c Harvard Carmen Reinhart m???i ???????c c??ng b???, Largarde s??? c?? m???t b???c tranh r?? r??ng h??n. Trong nhi???u th??ng qua, c??c nh?? kinh t??? h???c ???? ????o x???i c??c ngu???n t?? li???u x??c th???c c??ng nh?? ch??a x??c th???c, t???ng h???p nh???ng ph??n t??ch to??n di???n nh???t v??? c??c kho???n Trung Qu???c cho n?????c ngo??i vay. V?? h??nh ???nh thu ???????c kh??ng th??? l??m gi???m b???t nh???ng lo ng???i v??? s???c m???nh t??i ch??nh c???a B???c Kinh.
Ng?????c l???i, d??? li???u n??y cho th???y nhi???u qu???c gia ??? c??c khu v???c ngh??o h??n tr??n th??? gi???i ???? ti???p nh???n c??c kho???n t??n d???ng t??? Trung Qu???c nhi???u h??n h???n so v???i tr?????c ????y. V?? c??c kho???n cho vay th?????ng ??i k??m v???i nh???ng ??i???u ki???n nghi??m ng???t ho??n to??n h?????ng ?????n c??c l???i ??ch chi???n l?????c c???a B???c Kinh v?? l??m t??ng nguy c?? ?????y nhi???u qu???c gia ??ang ph??t tri???n v??o m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh. Christoph Trebesch, ?????ng t??c gi??? c???a nghi??n c???u ?????n t??? Vi???n nghi??n c???u kinh t??? th??? gi???i t???i Kiel, cho bi???t: ???Ph????ng T??y v???n ch??a hi???u s??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ???? thay ?????i h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh qu???c t??? s??u s???c ?????n m???c n??o???.
Ng???i trong m???t th?? vi???n ??? Hamburg, Trebesch l?????t qua h??ng tr??m d??ng d??? li???u tr??n m??y t??nh x??ch tay c???a ??ng: th???i h???n cho vay, l??i su???t, m???c ????ch v?? t??i s???n th??? ch???p c???a g???n 5.000 kho???n cho vay v?? thanh to??n vi???n tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i 152 qu???c gia. Th??ng tin n??y ?????n t??? g???n ch???c c?? s??? d??? li???u ???????c bi??n so???n v???i s??? gi??p ????? c???a c??c t??? ch???c vi???n tr???, c??c ng??n h??ng v?? C?? quan t??nh b??o trung ????ng M??? (CIA).
Trebesch m?? t??? quy tr??nh bi??n so???n th??ng tin n??y l?? ???m???t d???ng kh???o c??? kinh t??????. Qu?? tr??nh n??y ????i h???i ??ng v?? ng?????i ?????ng nghi???p Sebastian Horn ph???i ph??n t??ch d??? li???u v?? sau ???? so s??nh v???i c??c ngu???n ch??nh th???c ????? ????a ra m???t b???c tranh to??n c???nh v??? c??c t??i s???n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? n?????c ngo??i ??? b???c tranh m?? B???c Kinh ch???c ch???n s??? mu???n che gi???u.
V??ng tr??n t??i ch??nh kh??p k??n
Theo nghi??n c???u n??y, Trung Qu???c xu???t kh???u nhi???u v???n sang c??c n?????c m???i n???i v?? ??ang ph??t tri???n h??n t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia c??ng nghi???p h??a kh??c c???ng l???i. H??n n???a, nhi???u ??i???u ki???n ??i k??m v???i kho???n cho vay ??ang ???? n???ng l??n vai c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n.
Trong khi c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y v?? c??c t??? ch???c ??a ph????ng th?????ng ????a ra l??i su???t th???p v?? th???i h???n thanh to??n d??i ?????i v???i c??c kho???n cho vay c???a h???, th?? Trung Qu???c c?? xu h?????ng ??p ?????t th???i h???n ng???n v?? l??i su???t cao h??n. ????? ?????m b???o c??c kho???n cho vay s??? ???????c thanh to??n, c??c h???p ?????ng cho vay quy ?????nh B???c Kinh c?? m???t s??? quy???n, ch???ng h???n nh?? quy???n ti???p c???n ngu???n th???c ph???m, nguy??n li???u th?? ho???c l???i nhu???n c???a c??c c??ng ty thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c ??? c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n. Th??ng th?????ng, Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ch??? ?????o r??t ti???n th???ng cho c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c ???? k?? h???p ?????ng x??y d???ng s??n bay, c???ng bi???n hay c??c con ?????p, c??ch ti???p c???n t???o ra m???t v??ng tr??n t??i ch??nh m?? kh??ng c?? s??? d??nh l??u c???a b???t k??? t??i kho???n n?????c ngo??i n??o.
Ngo??i ra, h??n 75% c??c kho???n cho vay d?????i d???ng vi???n tr??? tr???c ti???p ???????c cung c???p trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y ?????u ?????n t??? hai th??? ch??? t??i ch??nh do nh?? n?????c ??i???u h??nh: Ng??n h??ng xu???t nh???p kh???u Trung Qu???c v?? Ng??n h??ng ph??t tri???n Trung Qu???c. ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? ch??nh ph??? ???????c b??o c??o th?????ng xuy??n v??? m???i giai ??o???n c???a c??c d??? ??n vi???n tr??? v?? khi kh???ng ho???ng x???y ra v???i c??c n?????c cho vay, Trung Qu???c v???n c?? l???i th??? ????? gi??nh l???y t??i s???n th??? ch???p tr?????c c??c ch??? n??? kh??c. Nghi??n c???u l??u ?? r???ng Trung Qu???c ???? x??y d???ng m???t h??nh th???c vi???n tr??? ph??t tri???n m???i, trong ???? c??c kho???n cho vay c???p nh?? n?????c ???????c cung c???p t??y theo c??c ??i???u ki???n th????ng m???i.
??i???u ???? c?? th??? d???n ?????n c??c cu???c xung ?????t t???i t??? khi c??c d??? ??n kh??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh theo k??? ho???ch. Ch???ng h???n nh?? t???i Sri Lanka, Trung Qu???c c?? quy???n ki???m so??t m???t c???ng bi???n sau khi ch??nh ph??? n?????c n??y g???p kh?? kh??n trong vi???c tr??? n???. T???i Ecuador, B???c Kinh n???m gi??? 80% doanh thu t??? d???u m??? c???a n?????c n??y ????? b?? ?????p cho nh???ng ph?? t???n c?? li??n quan ?????n m???t d??? ??n x??y ?????p kh???ng l???. T???i Zambia, n?????c n??? Trung Qu???c 6 t??? USD theo ?????c t??nh, nh???ng ng?????i ch??? tr??ch lo ng???i r???ng B???c Kinh s??? ti???p qu???n c??ng ty cung c???p n??ng l?????ng nh?? n?????c Zesco.
S??? s??? h??i c??ng ??ang gia t??ng ??? Nam Phi, n??i T???ng th???ng Cyril Ramaphosa ???????c cho l?? ???? ????m ph??n v??? c??c kho???n cho vay v?? tr??? c???p tr??? gi?? 370 t??? rand (t????ng ??????ng kho???ng 24 t??? euro) trong m???t chuy???n th??m c???p nh?? n?????c t???i B???c Kinh m??a Thu n??m 2018. ?????ng ?????i l???p Li??n minh d??n ch??? lo ng???i r???ng Nam Phi c?? th??? sa v??o b???y n??? v?? B???c Kinh c?? th??? n???m quy???n ki???m so??t c??ng ty ??i???n thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c Eskom ??ang ch???t v???t duy tr?? s??? t???n t???i. M??a Thu n??m 2018, Ramaphosa kh???ng ?????nh r???ng Ch??nh ph??? Nam Phi ???kh??ng c?? th??i quen b??n giao t??i s???n c???a ?????t n?????c ch??ng t??i cho b???t k??? qu???c gia hay th???c th??? n??o kh??c???. C??u n??i n??y r?? r??ng ??m ch??? Trung Qu???c. Ch???c ch???n c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y kh??ng h??? kh?? ch???u khi Trung Qu???c, trong s??? nhi???u qu???c gia tr??n th??? gi???i, ?????m nh???n vai tr?? t???t th?? t???ng thu???c v??? IMF hay M??? trong m???t th???i gian d??i. Nh??ng d?? sao h??? v???n kh??ng y??n t??m tr?????c n??? l???c c???a B???c Kinh nh???m che gi???u quy m?? th???c s??? c???a c??c kho???n cho vay c???a n?????c n??y ?????i v???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n.
Nguy c?? v??? n???
Nghi??n c???u gi???a ?????c v?? M??? ???? v???ch ra quy m?? c???a n??? l???c ????. Nghi??n c???u n??y l???p lu???n r???ng nhi???u kho???n ti???n t??? B???c Kinh b??? che gi???u v?? ch??ng ???????c ????? th???ng v??o c??c c??ng ty thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c ??ang ho???t ?????ng t???i c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n. Tuy nhi??n c??c b???ng c??n ?????i k??? to??n c???a c??c c??ng ty n??y th?????ng kh??ng c?? trong th???ng k?? t??i ch??nh ch??nh th???c. K???t qu??? l?? m???t l?????ng l???n c??c kho???n cho vay ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? qua m???t c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y v?? c??c t??? ch???c qu???c t???. Nghi??n c???u n??y cho th???y s??? n??? c???a n?????c ngo??i m?? Trung Qu???c n???m gi??? cao h??n kho???ng 50% so v???i s??? li???u th???ng k?? ch??nh th???c.
S??? kh??c bi???t ?????c bi???t l???n ??? nh???ng n?????c v???n ???? n??? n???n ch???ng ch???t. Ch???ng h???n nh?? ??? B??? Bi???n Ng??, s??? n??? cao h??n 4 t??? USD so v???i m???c m?? ng?????i ta v???n ngh??. S??? ch??nh l???ch ??? Angola l?? 14 t??? USD v?? Venezuela l?? 33 t??? USD. Theo nghi??n c???u n??y, v?? Ch??nh quy???n B???c Kinh c?? xu h?????ng t??nh l??i su???t cao, n??n nhi???u n?????c m???i n???i v?? ??ang ph??t tri???n ph???i th???c hi???n ???ngh??a v??? tr??? n??? gia t??ng th?????ng ni??n???. ??i???u ???? c?? ngh??a l?? c??c kho???n thanh to??n l??i su???t c???a h??? ti???p t???c t??ng, l??m gia t??ng nguy c?? v??? n???.
M???t con t??u t???i th??nh ph??? bi???n Mombasa c???a Kenya ho???t ?????ng tr??n ???????ng ray do Trung Qu???c x??y d???ng.
C??c t??c gi??? c???a nghi??n c???u n??y l??u ?? r???ng t??nh h??nh hi???n nay g???i nh??? ?????n th???i ??i???m cu???i nh???ng n??m 1970, khi c??c ng??n h??ng l???n t??? M???, ch??u ??u v?? Nh???t B???n cung c???p c??c kho???n cho vay tr??? gi?? h??ng t??? USD cho c??c n?????c M??? Latinh v?? ch??u Phi v???n gi??u h??ng h??a ??? nh???ng m??n n??? ???? qua m???t ???????c c??c c?? quan gi??m s??t qu???c t???. Khi gi?? c???a nhi???u nguy??n li???u th?? s???t gi???m, c??c n?????c nh?? Mexico kh??ng th??? tr??? n??? ???????c n???a, v?? ph???n l???n c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n ?????u r??i v??o m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? khi???n h??? b??? ch???ng l???i trong nhi???u n??m.
Hi???n nay, t??nh h??nh g???n nh?? kh??ng c?? g?? kh??c bi???t. M???t l???n n???a, nhi???u n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n ???? ch???p nh???n c??c kho???n n??? kh???ng l???. V?? n???u t??nh c??? d??ng ti???n kh??ng r?? r??ng t??? Trung Qu???c, nh?? nghi??n c???u ???? ch??? ra, th?? s??? n??? m?? nhi???u n?????c ph???i g??nh ch???u m???t l???n n???a s??? ??? m???c cao nh?? h???i nh???ng n??m 1980. C??c t??c gi??? b??i vi???t cho r???ng t??nh hu???ng n??y ???gi???ng m???t c??ch ????ng ch?? ???????? v???i nh???ng g?? ???? x???y ra.
C??ng c?? nh???ng d???u hi???u ban ?????u cho th???y m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng ??ang ?????n r???t g???n. Pakistan g???n ????y ???? bu???c ph???i xin IMF c???p m???t kho???n cho vay kh???n c???p v?? h??? kh??ng th??? tr??? s??? n??? kh???ng l??? cho Trung Qu???c. T???i Sierra Leone, ch??nh ph??? ???? cho ng???ng x??y d???ng m???t s??n bay m?? Trung Qu???c c?? ?? t??i tr???. Trong khi ????, T???ng gi??m ?????c IMF Lagarde g???n nh?? trong m???i b??i ph??t bi???u ?????u ????? c???p ?????n nh???ng nguy c?? ??e d???a s??? ???n ?????nh t??i ch??nh to??n c???u.
Ch??u Phi c???n g???
Tuy nhi??n, tr?????c m???t ch??a th???y d???u hi???u d??ng t??n d???ng c???a Trung Qu???c s??? ng???ng l???i. C??c l???i th??? kinh t???, c??ng nh?? c??c l???i ??ch ch??nh tr???, ?????c bi???t l?? ??? ch??u Phi c???a Trung Qu???c ????n gi???n l?? qu?? l???n.
Trong khi ph????ng T??y ph???n l???n ch??? coi l???c ?????a n??y l?? ngu???n g???c li??n t???c g??y ra th???m h???a, th?? B???c Kinh l???i coi ????y l?? n??i c?? ti???m n??ng ch??a ???????c khai th??c. Kho???ng 1,5 tri???u ng?????i Trung Qu???c g???m c??c doanh nh??n, chuy??n gia c??ng ngh??? th??ng tin, k??? thu???t vi??n v?? th????ng nh??n ???????c cho l?? ??ang sinh s???ng v?? l??m vi???c ??? ch??u Phi.
H??? ???? m??? r???ng c?? s??? h??? t???ng ??? ch??u Phi v???i t???c ????? ?????y ???n t?????ng, x??y c??c con ?????p, s??n bay, ???????ng ray v?? c??c khu c??ng nghi???p tr??n kh???p ch??u l???c n??y. ?????i l???i, Trung Qu???c c?? quy???n ti???p c???n c??c ngu???n t??i nguy??n thi??n nhi??n v?? c??c th??? tr?????ng ch??u Phi.
Theo l???i T???ng th???ng Rwandan Paul Kagame, B???c Kinh ??ang mang ?????n ch??nh x??c nh???ng g?? ch??u Phi c???n. ??ng n???m trong nh??m ng??y c??ng nhi???u nh???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o ??? ch??u Phi ??ang t??m c??ch b???t ch?????c m?? h??nh chuy??n ch??? ???????c Trung Qu???c ph??t tri???n th??nh c??ng, th?????ng c?? s??? ???ng h??? t??? ph??a ng?????i d??n. Theo m???t cu???c kh???o s??t ???????c c??c c??ng ty th??m d?? ?? ki???n tr??n trang web Afrobarometer th???c hi???n t???i 36 n?????c ch??u Phi, 63% s??? ng?????i ???????c h???i c?? c??i nh??n t??ch c???c v??? s??? can d??? c???a Trung Qu???c.
C??c nh?? c???m quy???n ch??u Phi mu???n h???p t??c v???i Trung Qu???c m???t ph???n l?? v?? n?????c n??y kh??ng li??n quan ?????n c??c quy ?????nh v??? ?????o ?????c gi???ng nh?? nh???ng ????i h???i, ??t nh???t l?? tr??n gi???y t???, c???a c??c ch??nh ph??? ph????ng T??y. V?? h??? kh??ng qu?? ?????n ??o trong vi???c h???i l??? c??c ch??nh tr??? gia.
Tuy nhi??n, ng??y c??ng c?? nhi???u c???nh b??o v??? s??? n??? ??ang tr??? n??n qu?? cao ??? ch??u Phi. Kh??ng ch??? v?? nhi???u d??? ??n ???? t??? ra kh??ng kh??? thi v??? m???t kinh t???, m?? c??n v?? Trung Qu???c ???? v?? ??ang l??m m???t vi???c mang t??nh h??? th???ng l?? b??o c??o kh??ng ?????y ????? v??? ???nh h?????ng c???a h???.
R?? r??ng h??n n???a
Nh?? nghi??n c???u m???i ???? ch??? ra, trong khi s??? li???u th???ng k?? ch??nh th???c c???a Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c th?????ng ch??? li???t k?? c??c kho???n cho vay nh???, con s??? th???c t??? cao h??n nhi???u. Ch???ng h???n, ?????t n?????c nh??? b?? Djibouti ??ang n??? Trung Qu???c m???t kho???n t????ng ??????ng v???i 70% s???n l?????ng kinh t??? h??ng n??m c???a h???. Con s??? n??y ??? Congo l?? 30% v?? Kenya l?? 15%, l???n h??n nhi???u so v???i kho???n n??? c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y.
N??? c??ng c???a c??c n?????c v???i Trung Qu???c n??m 2017, t??nh theo % GDP.
T??nh h??nh n??y kh?? c?? th??? thay ?????i trong t????ng lai g???n. Trebesch n??i: ???Nhi???u d??? ??n c???a Trung Qu???c ???? c?? l???i cho c??c n?????c ti???p nh???n???. X??t cho c??ng, nhi???u n?????c ch??u Phi ??ang r???t c???n c?? s??? h??? t???ng hi???n ?????i.
H??n n???a, m???t s??? nghi??n c???u g???n ????y c???a M??? ???? v??? ra m???t b???c tranh ??t g??y hoang mang h??n v??? c??c kho???n cho vay ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c. Nh?? kinh t??? h???c Deborah Brautigam thu???c ?????i h???c Johns Hopkins ??? Baltimore nh???n th???y trong s??? 17 n?????c ch??u Phi m???c k???t trong cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n???, ch??? c?? 3 n?????c ti???p nh???n c??c kho???n cho vay t??? B???c Kinh. Trong khi ????, c??c nh?? ph??n t??ch ?????n t??? T???p ??ao??n Rhodium l???p lu???n r???ng Trung Qu???c kh??ng ?????c ??o??n nh?? nhi???u ng?????i v???n ngh??. Khi xem x??t 40 d??? ??n c???a B???c Kinh, t???p ??o??n n??y nh???n th???y Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c s???n s??ng ????a ra nh?????ng b??? v??? th???i h???n tr??? n??? n???u vi???c ???? l?? c???n thi???t.
Tuy v???y, t???n su???t c???a nh???ng nh?????ng b??? n??y d?????ng nh?? ch??? ra r???ng c??c ??i???u ki???n ban ?????u do Trung Qu???c ?????t ra l?? qu?? nghi??m ng???t. V?? t??nh h??nh n??y kh??ng ????p ???ng c??c ti??u chu???n qu???c t??? v??? t??nh minh b???ch li??n quan ?????n quy m?? c??c kho???n cho vay c???a B???c Kinh v?? c??c ??i???u ki???n k??m theo.
Tr??n th???c t???, ???? l?? s??? c???i thi???n quan tr???ng nh???t m?? Trabesch mu???n th???y ??? c??? th??? l?? Trung Qu???c cu???i c??ng s??? ph???i l??m r?? h??n c??c ho???t ?????ng t??i ch??nh c???a h??? t???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n. Th??? nh???t v?? h???u qu??? kinh t??? v?? ch??nh tr??? c???a c??c kho???n cho vay n??y s??? tr??? n??n r?? r??ng h??n. Th??? hai v?? ??i???u ???? c?? th??? gi??p ng??n ch???n s??? b??ng n??? c???a m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? m???i t???i c??c n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n.
X??t cho c??ng, Trung Qu???c s??? b??? ???nh h?????ng tr???c ti???p n???u ??i???u ???? x???y ra.
Theo Spiegel | Ngu???n: Nghi??n c???u Bi???n ????ng
Ng?????i Kurd l?? ai?


Ngu???n: Matthew Barbari, ???Who Are The Kurds????, Foreign Policy Association, 25/02/2016.
Bi??n d???ch: V?? H???ng Trang
G???n ????y, ph????ng T??y ?????t ph???n l???n s??? ch?? ?? c???a m??nh v??o cu???c xung ?????t Syria v?? s??? n???i l??n c???a Nh?? n?????c H???i gi??o (ISIS), g???t sang m???t b??n nh???ng nguy???n v???ng h??nh th??nh nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd. Tuy nhi??n, c??c quan ch???c Hoa K??? t??? l??u ???? coi ng?????i Kurd l?? m???t trong nh???ng ?????ng minh m???nh nh???t c???a h???, ?????c bi???t l?? trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng l???i ISIS.
Ng?????i Kurd l?? m???t nh??m d??n t???c s???ng ch??? y???u tr??n b???n qu???c gia: Th??? Nh?? K???, Iraq, Syria v?? Iran. T???i Th??? Nh?? K???, ng?????i Kurd ???????c ?????i di???n b???i c??? ?????ng C??ng nh??n ng?????i Kurd (PKK) v?? ?????ng D??n ch??? Nh??n d??n (HDP). Tuy ?????u n??? l???c ch???m d???t b???o l???c gi???a ng?????i Kurd Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? ch??nh ph??? c???a T???ng th???ng Recep Tayyip Erdogan, c??? hai s??? d???ng c??c chi???n l?????c kh??c nhau ????? ?????t ???????c m???c ti??u ????.
?????ng PKK l?? m???t nh??m qu??n s???, g??y ra nhi???u cu???c t???n c??ng ch???ng l???i l???c l?????ng Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? b??? c??? Th??? Nh?? K??? v?? M??? li???t k?? l?? m???t nh??m kh???ng b???.  Tr??i l???i, ?????ng HDP t??m c??ch gi??nh quy???n t??? tr??? cho ng?????i Kurd th??ng qua vi???c tham gia ti???n tr??nh ch??nh tr??? v?? n??? l???c kh??ng ng???ng ????? kh??ng b??? cho l?? d??nh l??u t???i b???o l???c g??y ra b???i ?????ng PKK.
Khi c??c ???ng c??? vi??n ch??nh tr??? Hoa K??? n??i v??? vi???c trang b??? v?? trang cho ng?????i Kurd trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS, h??? th?????ng kh??ng ph??n bi???t ???????c gi???a ng?????i Kurd ??? Th??? Nh?? K???, ??? Syria v?? ??? Iraq. Khi Hoa K??? ????? c???p ?????n c??c ?????ng minh ng?????i Kurd, n?????c n??y c?? ?? nh???c t???i ng?????i Kurd ??? ????ng B???c Iraq.
Ngay trong ch??nh ng?????i Kurd Iraq, d??n s??? ??t nhi???u chia th??nh hai phe: ?????ng D??n ch??? Kurdistan (KDP) v?? Li??n minh y??u n?????c Kurdistan (PUK). G???n ????y h??n, ?????ng Gorran, ngh??a l?? ??? thay ?????i???, ???? mang ?????n m???t s??? l???a ch???n m???i b??n c???nh hai ?????ng truy???n th???ng.
M???c d?? c?? s??? chia r??? d???n ?????n cu???c n???i chi???n (1994 ??? 1997), hai nh??m hi???n t???i ??ang ??o??n k???t c??ng nhau trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS v?? v?? m???c ti??u chung l?? l???p n??n nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd. Tuy nhi??n, ???? kh??ng ph???i l?? nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd xuy??n qu???c gia m?? PKK k??? v???ng, m?? l?? m???t nh?? n?????c b??n trong bi??n gi???i Iraq.
??? Syria, c??c ????n v??? T??? v??? Nh??n d??n (YPG) ??? c??nh qu??n s??? c???a ?????ng Li??n minh D??n ch??? ng?????i Kurd (PYD) ??? ???? c?? m???t lo???t chi???n th???ng qu??n s??? ch???ng l???i ISIS trong nh???ng th??ng qua. Th??? Nh?? K??? xem PYD nh?? l?? t??? ch???c m??? c???a PKK ??? Syria v?? ??ang t??ch c???c ch???ng l???i s??? th??c ?????y x??y d???ng m???t nh?? n?????c c???a ng?????i Kurd ??? Syria v?? lo ng???i ??i???u n??y s??? k??ch ?????ng ng?????i Kurd thi???u s??? ??? ch??nh Th??? Nh?? K???. Th???t v???y, Hoa K??? ph???i ch???t v???t c??n b???ng s??? h??? tr??? cho PYD trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS v???i vi???c kh??ng ch???c gi???n Ankara.
S??? do d??? c???a M??? ???? t???o c?? h???i Nga. K??? t??? khi Th??? Nh?? K??? b???n h??? m???t m??y bay chi???n ?????u c???a Nga t???i bi??n gi???i Syria ??? Th??? Nh?? K???, Moskva ???? c?? xu h?????ng h??? tr??? ng?????i Kurd ??? Syria v?? ?????ng PYD nh???m t???o ra m???t khu v???c b??n t??? tr??? ??? ph??a b???c g???i l?? ???Rojava???. H??n n???a, Nga kh??ng xem PYD hay PKK l?? t??? ch???c kh???ng b???, v?? do ???? c??ng kh??ng e ng???i vi???c h??? tr??? cho h???.
S??? ??a d???ng c???a c??c phong tr??o (h?????ng t???i th??nh l???p) qu???c gia c???a ng?????i Kurd tr??n kh???p Trung ????ng cho th???y m???t kh??a c???nh ph???c t???p kh??c trong cu???c chi???n ch???ng ISIS. M???t trong nh???ng ??i???u kh??ng th??? ph??? nh???n l?? cu???c ?????u tranh c???a ng?????i Kurd kh??ng th??? ti???p t???c b??? c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? ph???t l???.
22/05/1455: Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng b???t ?????u


Ngu???n: The War of the RosesHistory.com
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1455, trong tr???n chi???n m??? m??n Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng c???a n?????c Anh, l???c l?????ng c???a Nh?? York ???? ????nh b???i phe Lancaster c???a vua Henry VI t???i St. Albans, c??ch London 20 d???m v??? ph??a t??y b???c. Nhi???u qu?? t???c c???a Nh?? Lancaster ???? thi???t m???ng, bao g???m c??? Edmund Beaufort, C??ng t?????c x??? Somerset, v?? nh?? vua ???? bu???c ph???i tu??n theo m???nh l???nh c???a ng?????i anh h??? l?? Richard c???a Nh?? York. Cu???c chi???n v????ng quy???n dai d???ng gi???a Nh?? York, v???i bi???u t?????ng hoa h???ng tr???ng, v?? Nh?? Lancaster, v???i bi???u t?????ng hoa h???ng ?????, ???? k??o d??i trong 30 n??m.
C??? hai d??ng h???, v???n c?? quan h??? g???n g??i, ???? tuy??n b??? ????i ng??i b??u th??ng qua c??c h???u du??? c???a c??c con trai c???a Edward III, vua n?????c Anh trong giai ??o???n 1327 ??? 1377. V??? vua ?????u ti??n c???a Nh?? Lancaster l?? Henry IV, l??n ng??i n??m 1399. N???i lo???n v?? v?? ph??p ???? xu???t hi???n trong su???t th???i tr??? v?? c???a ??ng. Sau ????, con trai ??ng, Henry V, ???? th??nh c??ng h??n v?? gi??nh chi???n th???ng quy???t ?????nh trong Chi???n tranh Tr??m n??m ch???ng Ph??p.
Nh??ng ch??u n???i Henry VI th?? l???i kh??ng c?? ph???m ch???t c???a m???t nh?? vua v?? ???? ????? m???t ph???n l???n ?????t Ph??p m?? cha m??nh ???? chinh ph???c ???????c. N???i b??? n?????c Anh ch??m trong h???n lo???n v?? c??c l??nh ch??a v???i qu??n ?????i ri??ng ???? ra th??ch th???c quy???n l???c c???a Henry VI. ????i khi, v??? ho??ng h???u ?????y tham v???ng, Margaret x??? Anjou, m???i l?? ng?????i th???c s??? ki???m so??t ngai v??ng.
N??m 1453, Henry VI m???c ph???i c??n b???nh ??i??n lo???n. N??m 1454, Ngh??? vi???n b??? nhi???m Richard, C??ng t?????c x??? York, l??m ng?????i b???o v??? v????ng qu???c. Hai ng?????i ??ng c???a Henry v?? Richard l???n l?????t l?? con trai th??? t?? v?? th??? ba c???a Edward III. Khi Henry h???i ph???c v??o cu???i n??m 1454, ??ng ???? ph??? tru???t Richard v?? kh??i ph???c l???i quy???n h??nh cho Margaret, ng?????i lu??n coi Richard l?? m???i ??e d???a cho quy???n k??? v??? c???a con trai b?? ??? Ho??ng t??? Edward.
Richard ???? x??y d???ng m???t ?????i qu??n g???m 3.000 ng?????i, v?? v??o th??ng 05, qu??n ?????i Nh?? York ???? di???u h??nh t???i London. Ng??y 22/05/1455, phe York ?????i ?????u l???c l?????ng c???a Henry VI t???i St. Albans trong khi ??ang h??nh qu??n tr??n con ???????ng ph??a b???c ti???n ?????n th??? ????. Cu???c ?????ng ????? ?????m m??u k??o d??i ch??a ?????y m???t gi???, v?? Nh?? York ???? gi??nh chi???n th???ng. C??ng t?????c x??? Somerset, ?????ng minh l???n c???a Margaret, ???? b??? gi???t ch???t, c??n Henry th?? b??? phe York b???t gi???.
Sau tr???n chi???n, Richard l???i tr??? th??nh ng?????i b???o v??? v????ng qu???c, nh??ng sang n??m 1456, Margaret ???? gi??nh l???i quy???n l???c. M???t n???n h??a b??nh kh??ng m???y tho???i m??i ???? b??? ph?? v??? v??o n??m 1459. N??m 1460, Nh?? Lancaster b??? ????nh b???i, Richard ???? ???????c quy???n l??n ng??i khi Henry qua ?????i. Nh?? Lancaster sau ???? ???? t???p h???p c??c l???c l?????ng ??? mi???n b???c n?????c Anh, v?? th??ng 12/1460, h??? ???? t???n c??ng b???t ng??? v?? gi???t ch???t Richard ??? b??n ngo??i l??u ????i c???a ??ng, g???n Wakefield.
Con trai c???a Richard, Edward, ???? ?????n London tr?????c Margaret v?? ???????c t???n phong l?? vua Edward IV. Th??ng 03/1461, Edward ???? gi??nh chi???n th???ng quy???t ?????nh ch???ng l???i phe Lancaster trong Tr???n Towton, tr???n chi???n ?????m m??u nh???t. Henry, Margaret, v?? con trai ph???i tr???n sang Scotland, v?? giai ??o???n ?????u c???a cu???c chi???n ???? k???t th??c.
Tranh gi??nh quy???n l???c trong n???i b??? Nh?? York sau ???? ???? d???n t???i vi???c l???t ????? Edward v??o n??m 1470, v?? Henry VI quay l???i ng??i vua. M???t n??m sau, Edward quay tr??? l???i sau th???i gian b??? l??u ????y ??? H?? Lan, ????nh b???i l???c l?????ng c???a Margaret, gi???t ch???t con trai c???a b??, v?? giam Henry trong Th??p London, n??i ??ng b??? s??t h???i. Edward IV ???? c???m quy???n m?? kh??ng b??? gi??n ??o???n cho ?????n khi ??ng qua ?????i v??o n??m 1483. Con trai c??? c???a ??ng ???????c t???n phong l??m vua Edward V, nh??ng anh trai c???a Edward IV, Richard III, ???? gi??nh l???y v????ng mi???n v?? giam gi??? Edward V c??ng em trai ??? Th??p London, n??i m?? hai ho??ng t??? ???? bi???n m???t, c?? l??? h??? ???? b??? s??t h???i. N??m 1485, trong Tr???n Bosworth Field, Richard III b??? ????nh b???i v?? gi???t ch???t b???i phe Lancaster do Henry Tudor d???n ?????u.
Henry Tudor ???????c t???n phong l??m vua Henry VII, v??? vua ?????u ti??n c???a Nh?? Tudor. Henry l?? ch??u n???i c???a Catherine x??? Valois, ng?????i v??? g??a c???a Henry V, v?? Owen Tudor. N??m 1486, ??ng k???t h??n v???i con g??i c???a Edward IV, Elizabeth x??? York, nh??? ???? th???ng nh???t hai nh?? York v?? Lancaster. S??? ki???n n??y ???????c coi l?? ????nh d???u s??? k???t th??c c???a Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng; d?? th???c t???, v??o n??m 1487, v???n c?? m???t s??? ng?????i nh?? York ???ng h??? m???t cu???c n???i d???y kh??ng th??nh c??ng do Lambert Simnel d???n ?????u nh???m ch???ng l???i Henry. Chi???n tranh Hoa H???ng kh??ng ????? l???i nhi???u d???u ???n ?????i v???i th?????ng d??n Anh Qu???c, nh??ng n?? ???? l??m suy gi???m r???t nhi???u h??ng ng?? qu?? t???c n?????c n??y.
T????ng lai ????i Loan sau b???a t???i gi???a T???p v?? M??