Qu???n l?? c??c c?????ng qu???c

Thứ tư - 31/07/2019 21:11
Ng??y nay, s??? c???nh tranh gi???a c??c c?????ng qu???c l?? m???t th???c t???. Hoa K??? ??ang c???nh tranh v???i m???t n?????c Nga ng??y c??ng t??ch c???c v?? m???t Trung Qu???c ??ang tr???i d???y. Trung ????ng, Bi???n ????ng, v?? Ukraine ch??? l?? ba s??n kh???u m?? th???c t??? m???i n??y di???n ra.
Qu???n l?? c??c c?????ng qu???c

Qu???n l?? m???t th??? gi???i c???a c??c c?????ng qu???c

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Ngu???n: Javier Solana, ???Managing a World of Great Powers???, Project Syndicate, 30/11/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n H???ng Nhung | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Ng??y nay, s??? c???nh tranh gi???a c??c c?????ng qu???c l?? m???t th???c t???. Hoa K??? ??ang c???nh tranh v???i m???t n?????c Nga ng??y c??ng t??ch c???c v?? m???t Trung Qu???c ??ang tr???i d???y. Trung ????ng, Bi???n ????ng, v?? Ukraine ch??? l?? ba s??n kh???u m?? th???c t??? m???i n??y di???n ra.

Sau khi ?????c l???i cu???n s????ch The Great Experiment (Cu???c th?? nghi???m v?? ?????i) c???a c???u Th??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao M??? Strobe Talbott, t??i c?? ???n t?????ng r???ng h???t gi???ng c???a nh???ng ?????ng l???c ng??y nay ???? ???????c gieo m???m t??? tr?????c. Cu???n s??ch mi??u t??? cu???c tr?? chuy???n di???n ra v??o n??m 2000 gi???a T???ng th???ng Bill Clinton v?? T???ng th???ng m???i ?????c c??? George W. Bush. Clinton n??i r???ng chi???n d???ch tranh c??? c???a Bush cho th???y v???n ????? an ninh ???????c Bush quan t??m nh???t ch??nh l?? Saddam Hussein v?? vi???c x??y d???ng m???t h??? th???ng ph??ng th??? ch???ng t??n l???a qui m?? l???n. ???Ho??n to??n ch??nh x??c???, Bush n??i.

Nh???ng v???n ????? n??y ???? ???????c g??c l???i khi th???m k???ch t???n c??ng kh???ng b??? v??o M??? ng??y 11 th??ng 9 n??m 2001 b???t ng??? x???y ?????n, ??em ?????n m???t th???i k?? h???p t??c qu???c t??? m?? trong ???? s??? ??o??n k???t ch???ng kh???ng b??? l?? bao tr??m. ???? l?? th???i k?? m?? t???t c??? ch??ng ta ?????u nh?? l?? ng?????i M???, v?? Bush ???? mi??u t??? Putin l?? ???r???t th???ng th???n v?? ????ng tin c???y???.

Gi?? b???t ?????u xoay chi???u th??ng 12 n??m ????, khi M??? tuy??n b??? r??t kh???i Hi???p ?????c ch???ng t??n l???a ?????n ?????o ????? x??y d???ng m???t h??? th???ng ph??ng th??? t??n l???a nh???m ph??ng v??? tr?????c m???t Iran c?? ti???m n??ng s??? h???t nh??n h??a. ??i???u n??y ???? ???????c n?????c Nga ch?? ?? t???i.

N?????c M??? ??? th???i ??i???m ???? d?????ng nh?? kh??ng hi???u r???ng m???t th??? gi???i ??a c???c ??ang h??nh th??nh ??? ??i???u khi???n cho nh???ng ch??nh s??ch m?? Bush v?? Clinton ???? th???o lu???n n??m 2000 tr??? n??n r???t kh?? theo ??u???i m?? kh??ng g??y ra h???u qu??? nghi??m tr???ng n??o. Trong m???t b??i ph??t bi???u n??m 2007 t???i H???i nghi An ninh Munich, T???ng th???ng Nga Vladimir Putin ???? l??m r?? ??i???u n??y, k???ch li???t ph???n ?????i s??? can thi???p v??o Iraq, v?? ?????c bi???t l?? k??? ho???ch c???a M??? nh???m m??? r???ng h??? th???ng ph??ng th??? t??n l???a sang ch??u ??u, g???i ????y l?? h??nh ?????ng g??y h???n ?????i v???i Nga v?? vi ph???m an ninh chung ch??u ??u.

V??o m??a h?? n??m 2008, ba s??? ki???n ???? khi???n tr???t t??? ??a c???c m???i tr??? n??n r?? n??t h??n. Trung Qu???c l??m c??? th??? gi???i kinh ng???c khi l?? n?????c ch??? nh?? c???a Th??? v???n h???i Olympic, c???ng c??? v??? th??? c???a m??nh nh?? m???t n?????c ????ng vai tr?? quan tr???ng tr??n tr?????ng qu???c t???. C??c h??nh ?????ng qu??n s??? c???a Nga t???i Gruzia gi???a l??c di???n ra Th??? v???n h???i cho th??? gi???i th???y r???ng kh??i ni???m v??? ph???m vi ???nh h?????ng v???n c??n gi?? tr??? ??? ??i???n Kremlin. V?? s??? s???p ????? c???a ng??n h??ng ?????u t?? M??? Lehman Brothers m???t th??ng sau ???? ???? g??y ra cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh to??n c???u khi???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i ?????n gi??? v???n ch??a ph???c h???i ho??n to??n, cho th???y s??? d??? b??? t???n th????ng c???a c??c n???n kinh t??? ti??n ti???n, trong khi Trung Qu???c l???i ??t b??? ???nh h?????ng.

V???i s??? t??? tin v??o v??? th??? c?????ng qu???c c???a m??nh, Trung Qu???c d?????ng nh?? ???? v?????t qua kh??i ni???m ???tr???i d???y h??a b??nh??? m?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ???? vi???n d???n t???i t??? th???i ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, khi ??p d???ng m???t ch??nh s??ch c???ng r???n h??n v???i c??c n?????c l??ng gi???ng. Vi???n v??o c??c quy???n l???ch s???, Trung Qu???c b???t ?????u m??? r???ng c??c y??u s??ch l??nh th??? c???a m??nh c??ng v???i s??? hi???n di???n qu??n s??? ??? Bi???n Hoa ????ng v?? Bi???n ????ng. N??m 2013, c??ng th???ng l??n ?????n ?????nh ??i???m khi Trung Qu???c ????n ph????ng tuy??n b??? th??nh l???p v??ng nh???n d???ng ph??ng kh??ng (ADIZ) bao tr??m c??c l??nh th??? tr??n Bi???n Hoa ????ng m?? n?????c n??y tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n nh??ng b??? Nh???t ki???m so??t.

Nhi???u n?????c b??? ???nh h?????ng b???i c??c h??nh ?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c ??? Bi???n Hoa ????ng v?? Bi???n ????ng c?? hi???p ?????c an ninh v???i M??? ??? c?????ng qu???c h???i qu??n ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng k??? t??? Th??? Chi???n II. V?? th???, tuy??n b??? c???a Trung Qu???c v??? v??ng nh???n d???ng ph??ng kh??ng ???????c M??? coi l?? m???t s??? khi??u kh??ch. V???i vi???c m??? r???ng c??c y??u s??ch ch??? quy???n, Trung Qu???c th???c s??? c??ng m??? r???ng c??? c??c y??u s??ch ????i ???nh h?????ng c???a m??nh.

C??c th??? ch??? qu???c t??? c??ng ph???i m???t m???t th???i gian m???i b???t k???p v???i tr???t t??? thay ?????i c???a th??? gi???i. H???i ngh??? G-20 n??m 2010 ??? Seoul ???? ??i ?????n m???t th???a thu???n t???i n??m 2014 s??? t??ng h???n m???c cho c??c n?????c m???i n???i trong Qu?? Ti???n t??? Qu???c t???. Tuy nhi??n Qu???c h???i M??? ???? t??? ch???i th??ng qua c??c thay ?????i n??y n??n th???a thu???n n??y kh??ng mang l???i k???t qu??? g??.

Trung Qu???c sau ???? t??? m??nh gi???i quy???t v???n ?????, ??i ti??n phong trong vi???c th??nh l???p Ng??n h??ng ?????u t?? H??? t???ng Ch??u ?? (AIIB). S??? ph??n m???nh c???a c??c th??? ch??? qu???c t??? d?????ng nh?? l?? kh??ng tr??nh kh???i cho ?????n khi c??c n?????c ch??u ??u quy???t ?????nh gia nh???p AIIB. M???c d?? ban ?????u M??? ph???n ?????i v?? v???n t??? ch???i tham gia, quy???t ?????nh tr??n nh???n ???????c nh???ng th??i ????? kh??c trong cu???c tr?? chuy???n sau n??y gi???a ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c T???p C???n B??nh v?? T???ng th???ng M??? Barack Obama.

Trong khi ????, Nga th??? hi???n nh???ng tham v???ng m???i trong ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a m??nh ??? Ukraine. V???i vi???c vi ph???m ?????nh ?????c Helsinki (Helsinki Final Act) v??o m??a xu??n n??m 2014, Putin ???? ?????t ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a Nga v??o th??? ?????i ?????u tr???c ti???p v???i M??? v?? ch??u ??u. ??i???u n??y ???????c t??i kh???ng ?????nh v??o th??ng 9 v???a qua khi Putin quy???t ?????nh can d??? v??o kh???ng ho???ng Syria, b???o v??? vai tr?? c???a Nga trong m???i n??? l???c nh???m mang l???i h??a b??nh cho Syria.

Ng??y nay, th??? gi???i kh??c xa so v???i nh???ng g?? ng?????i ta t?????ng t?????ng v??o cu???i th??? k??? tr?????c, m???t th???p ni??n sau khi B???c t?????ng Berlin s???p ?????. X??t v??? l???ch s??? m?? n??i, 15 n??m c?? th??? d??i ho???c ng???n ph??? thu???c v??o c?????ng ????? thay ?????i. Trong su???t 15 n??m c???a s??? gia t??ng c???nh tranh gi???a c??c c?????ng qu???c v?? s??? t??i b???t ???n ??? Trung ????ng ??? bao g???m M??a xu??n ??? R???p, s??? n???i l??n c???a nh?? n?????c H???i Gi??o t??n b???o, c??c cu???c chi???n tranh ???y nhi???m gi???a hai d??ng Sunni-Shia, v?? n???i th???ng kh??? kh??n xi???t c???a ng?????i d??n ??? ???? ??? c?? th??? n??i nh???ng s??? thay ?????i n??y l?? r???t m??nh li???t.

Nh??ng ?????i ?????u kh??ng ph???i l?? t???t c??? c??u chuy???n. Nh???ng b?????c ??i ?????y h???a h???n ???? ???????c th???c hi???n ??? hai l??nh v???c quan tr???ng: kh??ng ph??? bi???n v?? kh?? h???t nh??n, ?????c bi???t l?? th??ng qua c??c th???a thu???n h???t nh??n v???i Iran, v?? cu???c chi???n ch???ng bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u, th??? hi???n trong s??? chu???n b??? ????ng kh??ch l??? cho h???i ngh??? th?????ng ?????nh v??? kh?? h???u hi???n nay ??? Paris.

N???u c?? m???t b??i h???c t??? t???t c??? nh???ng ??i???u n??y, th?? ???? l?? ngo???i giao ???????c th???c hi???n t???t v?? ki??n tr?? v???n c?? m???t s???c m???nh phi th?????ng trong vi???c gi???i quy???t c??c m??u thu???n. ???? v???n l?? c??ng c??? t???t nh???t ????? t???o ra nh???ng k???t qu??? mang t??nh h???p t??c, ??i???u b??? c???n tr??? b???i s??? ?????i ?????u.

Javier Solana nguy??n l?? ?????i di???n c???p cao c???a Li??n minh ch??u ??u ph??? tr??ch ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i v?? An ninh, T???ng th?? k?? NATO, v?? nguy??n B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao T??y Ban Nha.

Copyright: Project Syndicate 2015 ??? Managing a World of Great Powers

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George Kennan: Ng?????i b??y m??u ????nh b???i Li??n X??

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george kennan

T??c gi???: Ho??ng Anh Tu???n

B??i li??n quan: Ngu???n g???c h??nh vi c???a Li??n X??

?????i v???i nhi???u th??? h??? quan ch???c ngo???i giao M??? t??? sau Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai ?????n nay, George Kennan (sinh ng??y 16/2/1904 v?? m???t ng??y 17/3/2005) ???????c coi l?? nh?? ngo???i giao k??? c???u v?? v?? ?????i nh???t. George Kennan ???????c coi l?? cha ????? c???a m???t trong nh???ng chi???n l?????c l???n nh???t, d??i nh???t, t???n k??m nh???t v?? ???????c th???c thi li??n t???c b???i nhi???u ?????i T???ng th???ng M??? trong su???t 45 n??m, t??? n??m 1946-1990, ???? l?? Chi???n l?????c Ki???m ch??? (Containment Strategy ??? hay c??n g???i l?? Chi???n l?????c Ng??n ch???n).

George Kennan gia nh???p B??? Ngo???i giao M??? n??m 1926 ngay sau khi t???t nghi???p ?????i h???c Princeton. Kennan ???? ch???n ???nghi???p??? nghi??n c???u v??? Li??n X??, l??m vi???c t???i nhi???u ph??i ??o??n ngo???i giao M??? ??? ch??u ??u, ?????c th??ng vi???t th???o ti???ng Nga, hi???u ???????c t??m l??, v??n h??a Nga v?? nhanh ch??ng tr??? th??nh chuy??n gia h??ng ?????u v??? Nga, Li??n X?? c???a B??? Ngo???i giao M??? n??i ri??ng v?? n?????c M??? n??i chung.

Trong th???i k??? Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i l???n th??? hai, quan h??? gi???a Li??n X?? v???i M??? v?? Anh l?? quan h??? ?????ng minh v?? ba n?????c n??y l?? n??ng c???t c???a phe ?????ng minh ch???ng l???i Kh???i tr???c Ph??t-x??t (g???m Nh???t, Italia v?? ?????c). Th???c ra ????y l?? m???t li??n minh c?? t??nh t??nh th??? v???i m???c ????ch ????nh b???i c??c n?????c Ph??t-x??t v?? s??? t???n t???i c???a ch??nh m??nh, ch??? k??? th???c c??c l???i ??ch, gi?? tr??? chung ????? g???n k???t quan h??? li??n minh 3 n?????c kh??ng nhi???u.

Do ????, sau khi k??? th?? chung l?? phe Ph??t-x??t b??? ?????i b???i, c??c nghi ng??? v??? ?? ????? chi???n l?????c c??ng nh?? s??? r???n n???t li??n minh gi???a Li??n X?? v???i M???, Anh v?? Ph????ng T??y l?? ??????ng nhi??n. L??c n??y c??? hai phe do M??? v?? Li??n X?? c???m ?????u ?????u c?? nhu c???u t???p h???p ?????ng minh, b???o v??? khu v???c ???nh h?????ng ???? ???????c ph??n chia theo c??c Hi???p ?????nh Yalta v?? Postdam, ?????ng th???i c???nh tranh quy???t li???t v??? quy???n l???c v?? ???nh h?????ng t???i c??c khu v???c kh??c tr??n th??? gi???i.

Tuy nhi??n, do quan h??? ?????ng minh v?? h???p t??c M???-Anh-X?? ???????c x??y d???ng v?? c???ng c??? trong su???t cu???c chi???n, n??n ng?????i d??n c??c n?????c n??y c?? th??i ????? h???u ngh??? v?? t??nh c???m t????ng ?????i t???t v???i nhau. Trong b???i c???nh m???i khi kh??ng c??n coi nhau l?? ???b???n???, l?? ????????ng minh???, v?? v?? cu???c chi???n sinh t???n m???i n??n c??? hai ph??a ?????u ph???i t??m c??c l?? do ???h???p l????? ????? c?? th??? coi nhau nh?? nh???ng k??? th?? kh??ng ?????i tr???i chung.

?????c bi???t n?????c M??? c???n t??m m???t ???con ng??o ???p??? ????? l???n, ????? m???nh ????? t???p h???p l???c l?????ng ?????ng minh, c???ng c??? s??? th???ng nh???t v?? ??o??n k???t c??? b??n trong l???n b??n ngo??i nh???m thi???t l???p m???t tr???t t??? m???i do M??? l??nh ?????o. Trong b???i c???nh ???? M??? r???t c???n c?? m???t s??? ????nh gi?? m???i v??? Li??n X?? nh???m x??y d???ng chi???n l?????c m???i.

Ng??y 3/2/1946, B??? Ngo???i giao M??? g???i B???c ??i???n m???t s??? 284 cho S??? qu??n M??? t???i Moscow, y??u c???u ph??n t??ch v?? ????nh gi?? 5 ??i???m sau v??? Li??n X??:

  1. C??c n??t c?? b???n v??? T???m nh??n c???a Li??n X?? th???i h???u chi???n;
  2. C?? s??? c???a T???m nh??n n??y l?? g??;
  3. Kh??? n??ng hi??n th???c h??a ch??nh s??ch n??y trong c??c tuy??n b???, v??n ki???n ch??nh th???c;
  4. C??c ti???p x??c ho???c ????nh gi?? b??n ngo??i v??? vi???c th???c hi???n ch??nh s??ch n??y;
  5. C??ch th???c ?????i ph?? c???a M???.

Khi ???? George Kennan l?? ?????i bi???n l??m th???i c???a M??? t???i Moscow (do ?????i s??? v???ng m???t) v?? ????y l?? l??c Kennan th??? hi???n d???u ???n v?? kh??? n??ng c???a m??nh. Ng??y 22/2/1946, George Kennan ????ch th??n th???o m???t b???c ??i???n d??i (g???n 20 trang). ????y l?? m???t ??i???u r???t kh??ng b??nh th?????ng. V?? do l?? do b???o m???t n??n gi???a B??? Ngo???i giao c??c n?????c v?? c??c S??? qu??n b??n ngo??i hi???m khi trao ?????i c??c b???c ??i???n d??i nh?? v???y. V?? c??ng ch??nh v?? l?? do n??y n??n b???c ??i???n tr??? l???i c???a George Kennan ???????c g???i l?? The Long Telegram (B???c ??i???n t??n d??i).

Trong b???c ??i???n n??y, George Kennan kh??ng ch??? tr??? l???i c???n k??? c??c c??u h???i tr??n, m?? c??n ph??n t??ch m???t c??ch to??n di???n v??? c??c v???n ????? sau: (i) T?? duy ?????i ngo???i c???a Nga/Li??n X??; (ii) T???i sao Nga/Li??n X?? l???i c?? t?? duy n??y; (iii) T?? duy n??y ???????c th??? hi???n ra sao tr??n th???c t??? v?? Li??n X?? s??? h??nh ?????ng nh?? th??? n??o; (iv) Chi???n l?????c m???i m?? Li??n X?? s??? ??p d???ng c?? c??c t??c ?????ng v?? h??? qu??? ra sao ?????i v???i M??? v?? ?????ng minh; (v) M??? c???n c?? c??c chi???n l?????c g?? ????? ?????i ph?? v???i Li??n X??.

C??? th???, George Kennan cho r???ng:

M???t, t?? duy ?????i ngo???i c???a Li??n X?? xu???t ph??t t??? truy???n th???ng t?? duy l??u ?????i c???a ng?????i Nga h??nh th??nh t??? h??nh th??? ?????a l?? ?????t n?????c, truy???n th???ng v??n h??a v?? t??m l??, ???? l?? lu??n ??? trong tr???ng th??i b???t an, cho r???ng c??c ????? qu???c ch??u ??u lu??n t??m c??ch l??m suy y???u n?????c Nga. ?? th???c h??? kh??ng t??c ?????ng nhi???u ?????n t?? duy n??y.

Hai, ng?????i Nga kh??ng c?? v??n h??a th???a hi???p ch??nh tr??? ki???u M???-Anh, do ???? kh??ng th??? chung s???ng theo ki???u ???c??ng t???n t???i h??a b??nh??? v???i M??? v?? Anh, m?? ch??? c?? ki???u ?????u tranh ???m???t m???t, m???t c??n???. Do ????, M??? v?? ph????ng T??y s??? kh??ng th??? chung s???ng h??a b??nh v???i Li??n X??, m?? quan h??? s??? l?? ?????i ?????u cho ?????n khi m???t trong hai b??n b??? s???p ?????. Cu???c ?????u n??y s??? k??o d??i v?? Li??n X?? r???t ki??n tr??, do ???? M??? c???n ph???i chu???n b??? m???t chi???n l?????c d??i h??i.

Ba, ????? ?????i ph?? v???i Li??n X??, Kennan cho r???ng M??? c???n x??y d???ng m???t chi???n l?????c m???i, ???? l?? Chi???n l?????c Ki???m ch??? nh???m ki???m ch??? Li??n X?? m???t c??ch to??n di???n. Kennan c??ng cho r???ng M??? c???n ph???i c???ng c??? tr???n ?????a c???a m??nh l?? 3 trung t??m g???m M???, Nh???t, v?? ch??u ??u. Kennan d??? ??o??n s??? c???nh tranh ???nh h?????ng di???n ra kh???c li???t nh???t t???i Hy L???p v?? Th??? Nh?? K???. Ph??n t??ch n??y l?? m???t trong c??c nguy??n nh??n ????a ?????n s??? ra ?????i c???a K??? ho???ch Marshall gi??p ph???c h???i kinh t??? Nh???t v?? ch??u ??u sau chi???n tranh.

B???n, Kennan cho r???ng vi???c ki???m ch??? ch??? t???p trung ch??? y???u trong l??nh v???c ch??nh tr??? v?? kinh t???. Theo Kennan, Li??n X?? c??ng c?? ??i???m y???u v??? t??m l?? l?? ???ng???i??? ?????i ?????u tr???c di???n, do ???? n???u M??? v?? ph????ng T??y thi h??nh ch??nh s??ch ki???m ch??? m???t c??ch ki??n ?????nh kh??ng ng???i va ch???m v?? ki??n quy???t gi??nh gi???t ???nh h?????ng v???i Li??n X?? th?? Li??n X?? s??? ph???i ch??n b?????c.

B???c ??i???n sau khi g???i ???? g??y ???ch???n ?????ng??? trong gi???i ngo???i giao M???. Tuy nhi??n, ph???n l???n n???i dung v???n ch??a ???????c ph???n ??nh ?????y ????? l??n gi???i l??nh ?????o c???p cao. Th???t v???ng nh??ng kh??ng b??? cu???c, George Kennan l???y ph???n l???n n???i dung trong b???c ??i???n g???i ng??y 22/3/1946 s???a l???i th??nh b??i b??o k?? b??t danh ???X??? v?? ????ng tr??n T???p ch?? Foreign Affairs s??? th??ng 7/1947. T??? ????y, b??i b??o ???? g??y l??n m???t c??n ????????a ch???n??? trong gi???i nghi??n c???u chi???n l?????c v?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch M??? v?? gi??p ?????nh h??nh ra Chi???n l?????c Ki???m ch??? c???a M??? sau n??y.

M???c d?? ???????c coi l?? cha ????? c???a Chi???n l?????c ki???m ch???, nh??ng ??i???u tr??? tr??n l?? ch??nh Kennan ???? c?? l??c b??? nh???ng k??? ???Di???u h??u??? (the Hawks) ch??? tr??ch l?? ???B??? c??u??? (the Dove) do: (i) qu?? ???m???m y???u??? v???i Li??n X??; (ii) kh??ng ch??? tr????ng ?????i ?????u v??? qu??n s???, m?? ch??? ch??? y???u ?????i ?????u v??? ngo???i giao, ch??nh tr??? v?? kinh t???; (iii) Chi???n l?????c Ki???m ch??? c???a Kennan ch??? y???u mang t??nh ph??ng th???.

Sau ???? Chi???n l?????c Ki???m ch??? c???a Kennan b??? gi???i ???Di???u h??u??? trong ch??nh gi???i M??? b???t c??c, v?? ???????c Paul Nitze, ng?????i thay Kennan l??m V??? tr?????ng Ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i t???i B??? Ngo???i giao b??? sung th??m y???u t??? ki???m ch??? qu??n s???, c??n Ngo???i tr?????ng kh??t ti???ng ???di???u h??u??? John Foster Dulles d?????i th???i T???ng th???ng Dwight Eisenhower th?? ???b??c b?????? Chi???n l?????c ki???m ch??? c???a Kennan, m?? ????i chuy???n sang Chi???n l?????c ?????y lui Ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n (Rollback). C??n b???n th??n Kennan v???n kh??ng thay ?????i l???p tr?????ng ???b??? c??u???, ch??? tr??ch m???nh m??? s??? can thi???p qu??n s??? c???a M??? t???i Tri???u Ti??n v?? Afghanistan.

Cho ?????n nay, sau khi Li??n X?? v?? kh???i ????ng ??u ???? s???p ????? g???n m???t ph???n t?? th??? k???, nh??n l???i ch??nh s??ch c???a M??? v?? ph????ng T??y hi???n nay ?????i v???i Nga r?? r??ng c?? l?? do ????? tin r???ng c??c ????nh gi?? c???a M??? v?? ph????ng T??y v??? Nga kh??ng c?? nhi???u thay ?????i v?? d?????ng nh?? Chi???n l?????c ki???m ch??? ??ang ????????i m?????? s???ng d???y tr??? l???i.

TS. Ho??ng Anh Tu???n l?? Vi???n tr?????ng Vi???n Nghi??n c???u Chi???n l?????c v?? Ngo???i giao, B??? Ngo???i giao Vi???t Nam. B??i vi???t th??? hi???n quan ??i???m c?? nh??n, kh??ng ph???i quan ??i???m c???a c?? quan n??i t??c gi??? c??ng t??c.
 

Tri???n v???ng kinh t??? Trung Qu???c

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China-Economic-Growth

Ngu???n: Zhang Monan, ???The Next Chinese Economy,??? Project Syndicate, 03/01/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??c C?????ng | Hi???u ????nh: Nguy???n Huy Ho??ng

Sau h??n 30 n??m ph??t tri???n v?????t b???c, n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ??ang c?? xu h?????ng quay v??? v???i ???????ng l???i ph??t tri???n mang t??nh truy???n th???ng h??n ??? v?? qu?? tr??nh t??i c??n b???ng kh?? kh??n ??ang ???????c ti???n h??nh, ???nh h?????ng ?????n h???u h???t m???i kh??a c???nh c???a n???n kinh t???.

Th??? nh???t, th???ng d?? t??i kho???n v??ng lai c???a Trung Qu???c ???? gi???m t??? m???c ?????nh 10% GDP v??o n??m 2007 c??n kho???ng h??n 2% trong n??m ngo??i ??? m???c th???p nh???t trong 9 n??m v???a qua. Trong qu?? 3 n??m 2014, th???ng d?? ngo???i th????ng ?????ng ??? m???c 81,5 t??? USD v?? th??m h???t t??i kho???n v???n l??n t???i 81,6 t??? USD, nh???ng con s??? n??y ph???n ??nh m???t c??n c??n thanh to??n ???n ?????nh h??n.

S??? thay ?????i n??y ph???n n??o c?? th??? ???????c gi???i th??ch b???ng xu h?????ng theo ??u???i ch??nh s??ch t??i c??ng nghi???p ho?? ????? t??ng c?????ng kh??? n??ng c???nh tranh th????ng m???i c???a nh???ng n?????c ph??t tri???n trong hai n??m qua. Ch???ng h???n nh?? ??? M???, t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng ng??nh ch??? t???o (manufacturing) ?????t b??nh qu??n kho???ng 4,3% m???i n??m trong giai ??o???n 2011-2012, v?? t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng s???n xu???t c??c s???n ph???m l??u b???n (durable goods) t??ng ?????t 8% (con s??? n??y l???n l?????t l?? 4,1% v?? 5,7% trong n??m 2002 v?? n??m 2007). Qu??? th???t, ng??nh c??ng nghi???p ch??? t???o c???a M??? ???? g??p ph???n ph???c h???i n???n kinh t??? v?? m?? c???a n?????c n??y.

Trong khi ????, do chi ph?? ti???n l????ng c???a Trung Qu???c ??ang leo thang, nh???ng ng??nh s???n xu???t th??m d???ng lao ?????ng c???a n?????c n??y ??ang ph???i ?????i m???t v???i s??? canh tranh ng??y c??ng kh???c li???t t??? ???n ?????, Mexico, Vi???t Nam, v?? m???t s??? n???n kinh t??? ????ng ??u kh??c trong vai tr?? nh???ng c?? s??? hi???u qu??? h??n ????? chuy???n giao c??ng nghi???p t??? c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n. K???t qu??? l?? d?? nh???ng n???n kinh t??? ph??t tri???n c?? ph???c h???i th?? nhu c???u xu???t kh???u c???a Trung Qu???c c??ng kh??ng th??? tr??? l???i m???c tr?????c kh???ng ho???ng.

C??ng s??? t??ng gi?? li??n t???c c???a ?????ng Nh??n d??n t???, nh???ng xu h?????ng n??y ???? ph???n n??o l??m suy gi???m th??? ph???n h??ng h??a Trung Qu???c t???i c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n. Th???t v???y, Trung Qu???c ???? m???t 2,3% th??? ph???n trong th??? tr?????ng c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n k??? t??? n??m 2013, v?? kho???ng 2% trong th??? tr?????ng M??? k??? t??? n??m 2011.

Nh???ng hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i m???i ch???m nh?? Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c Kinh t??? Chi???n l?????c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng, Hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i t??? do xuy??n ?????i T??y D????ng, v?? Hi???p ?????nh D???ch v??? ??a ph????ng s??? ?????y nhanh qu?? tr??nh n??y h??n n???a th??ng qua vi???c lo???i b??? thu??? quan ??? m???t s??? n?????c nh???t ?????nh v?? tri???n khai c??c ti??u chu???n lao ?????ng v?? m??i tr?????ng. Th??m v??o ????, ch??? ngh??a b???o h??? ng???m ng???m d?????i h??nh th???c h??? tr??? c???a nh?? n?????c v?? mua s???m c??ng ??ang khi???n ng??nh xu???t kh???u c???a Trung Qu???c ph???i ?????i m???t v???i nhi???u th??ch th???c nghi??m tr???ng.

Trung Qu???c c??ng ??ang ti???n h??nh t??i c??n b???ng ?????u t?? v?? ti??u d??ng trong n?????c. S??? suy gi???m t??ng tr?????ng ?????u t?? t??i s???n c??? ?????nh (t??? 33% n??m 2009 xu???ng c??n 16% trong n??m qua) ??ang t???o ??p l???c ????ng k??? l??n t??ng tr?????ng ?????u ra. Ph???n ????ng g??p c???a ?????u t?? v??o t??ng tr?????ng GDP gi???m t??? 8,1% n??m 2009 xu???ng c??n 4,2% trong n??m ngo??i.

M???t nguy??n nh??n c???a s??? suy gi???m n??y l?? do vi???c Trung Qu???c ch??a h???p thu h???t n??ng l???c s???n xu???t nh??? v??o ?????u t?? quy m?? l???n n??m 2010-2011. B??n c???nh c??c ng??nh c??ng nghi???p truy???n th???ng nh?? s???t th??p, kim lo???i m??u, v???t li???u x??y d???ng, k??? thu???t ho?? h???c, v?? ????ng t??u, c??ng su???t d?? th???a ??ang ???nh h?????ng ?????n c??c ng??nh c??ng nghi???p m???i n???i nh?? n??ng l?????ng gi??, pin m???t tr???i, v?? s???i c??c-bon, v???i nhi???u ng??nh s??? d???ng ch??a ?????n 75% n??ng l???c s???n xu???t c???a h???.

Nh??ng s??? suy gi???m trong ?????u t?? c??ng li??n quan tr???c ti???p t???i s??? suy gi???m trong h??nh th??nh v???n. Trong giai ??o???n 1996-2012, h??? s??? hi???u qu??? s??? d???ng v???n ?????u t?? trung b??nh (v???n ?????u t?? bi??n c???n thi???t ????? t??ng t???ng s???n ph???m th??m m???t ????n v???) c???a Trung Qu???c l?? kh?? cao, kho???ng 3,9, c?? ngh??a l?? v???n ?????u t?? ??? Trung Qu???c k??m hi???u qu??? h??n so v???i nh???ng n?????c ??ang ph??t tri???n c?? m???c t??ng tr?????ng t????ng t???.

H??n n???a, s??? t??ng tr?????ng theo chu k??? c???a t??? l??? l??i su???t v?? chi ph?? y???u t??? (?????u v??o s???n xu???t) ???? d???n ph???c h???i gi?? c??nh k??o gi???a h??ng h??a n??ng nghi???p v?? c??ng nghi???p. K???t qu??? l?? l???i nhu???n c???a c??c c??ng ty c??ng nghi???p c?? xu h?????ng ng??y c??ng gi???m, khi???n vi???c duy tr?? ?????u t?? cao tr??? n??n kh?? kh??n.

Trong khi ????, vi???c t???ng l???p trung l??u Trung Qu???c m??? r???ng ??ang g??y ???nh h?????ng l???n t???i ti??u d??ng. N??m ngo??i, Trung Qu???c ???? v?????t qua Nh???t B???n ????? tr??? th??nh th??? tr?????ng ti??u d??ng l???n th??? hai th??? gi???i, sau Hoa K???.

Ch???c ch???n, ng??nh nh???p kh???u Trung Qu???c v???n t???p trung v??o h??ng h??a trung gian, v???i vi???c nh???p kh???u nguy??n li???u th?? nh?? qu???ng s???t ???? gia t??ng trong th???p ni??n qua. Nh??ng trong nh???ng n??m g???n ????y, th??? ph???n h??ng h??a ti??u d??ng nh???p kh???u v?? s???n ph???m ho??n thi???n ph???c h???p (ph???c v??? ti??u d??ng l???n ?????u t??), nh?? xe h??i v?? m??y t??nh, ???? gia t??ng ????ng k???. Xu h?????ng n??y s??? gi??p m??i tr?????ng to??n c???u c??n b???ng h??n.

C??ng ngh??? l?? m???u ch???t cu???i c??ng trong th??ch th???c t??i c??n b???ng kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c. S??? ch???m tr??? trong vi???c ??p d???ng c??ng ngh??? v?? ?????i m???i g??p ph???n n???i r???ng kho???ng c??ch ph??t tri???n kinh t??? gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n ph????ng T??y, ng??n c???n vi???c n??ng c???p v?? chuy???n d???ch n???n kinh t???, k??m h??m kh??? n??ng Trung Qu???c ti???n l??n tr??n chu???i gi?? tr??? to??n c???u.

Nh??ng khi thu nh???p b??nh qu??n ?????u ng?????i c???a Trung Qu???c t??ng l??n, th??? tr?????ng ti??u th??? tr?????ng th??nh h??n, v?? c?? c???u c??ng nghi???p ???????c chuy???n ?????i, th?? nhu c???u v??? thi???t b??? ph???c v??? s???n xu???t v?? d???ch v??? th????ng m???i c??ng s??? t??ng ????ng k???. Qu??? th???t, trong th???p ni??n t???i, th??? tr?????ng c??ng ngh??? cao c???a Trung Qu???c d??? ki???n s??? ?????t t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng h??ng n??m t??? 20 ?????n 40%.

N???u Hoa K??? n???i l???ng vi???c h???n ch??? xu???t kh???u sang Trung Qu???c v?? duy tr?? th??? ph???n 18,3 % trong kim ng???ch nh???p kh???u c???a Trung Qu???c, t???ng gi?? tr??? xu???t kh???u s???n ph???m c??ng ngh??? cao c???a Hoa K??? sang Trung Qu???c c?? th??? ?????t h??n 60 t??? USD trong giai ??o???n n??y. ??i???u n??y s??? th??c ?????y vi???c n??ng c???p v?? ?????i m???i n???n c??ng nghi???p c???a Trung Qu???c, trong khi c???i thi???n chuy???n giao c??ng ngh??? to??n c???u v?? m??? r???ng c??c kho???n ?????u t?? li??n quan ??? c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n.

N???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c c?? th??? ??ang ch???m l???i, nh??ng tri???n v???ng c???a n?? v???n c??n m???nh m???. GDP Trung Qu???c c?? th??? ???? ?????t 10 ngh??n t??? USD trong n??m 2014. M???t khi v?????t qua ???????c th??ch th???c t??i c??n b???ng n???n kinh t??? hi???n t???i, Trung Qu???c s??? tr??? n??n m???nh m??? h??n bao gi??? h???t.

Zhang Monan (Tr????ng M???t Nam) l?? chuy??n vi??n t???i Trung t??m Th??ng tin Trung Qu???c (China Information Center), chuy??n vi??n Qu??? Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? Trung Qu???c (China Foundation for International Studies), v?? l?? nh?? nghi??n c???u t???i Di???n ????n Nghi??n c???u Kinh t??? v?? m?? Trung Qu???c (China Macroeconomic Research Platform).
 

14/08/1784: Ng?????i Nga b???t ?????u ?????nh c?? t???i Alaska

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alaska

Ngu???n: ???Russians settle Alaska???, History.com (truy c???p ng??y 14/08/2016)

Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Ng???c T?????ng Ng??n

V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1784, tr??n ?????o Kodiak, Grigory Shelikhov, m???t nh?? bu??n l??ng th?? ng?????i Nga, ???? th??nh l???p n??n khu ?????nh c?? V???nh Ba Th??nh (Three Saints Bay), khu ?????nh c?? th?????ng tr???c ?????u ti??n c???a Nga ??? Alaska.

Ng?????i ch??u ??u kh??m ph?? ra Alaska n??m 1741 khi m???t ??o??n th??m hi???m c???a Nga do nh?? th??m hi???m ng?????i ??an M???ch Vitus Bering l???n ?????u nh??n th???y ?????t li???n Alaska. C??c th??? s??n c???a Nga sau ???? ???? nhanh ch??ng x??m nh???p v??o Alaska, khi???n nh???ng ng?????i Aleut b???n ?????a ph???i ch???u nhi???u tai h???a do b??? truy???n nhi???u c??n b???nh l???. Khu ?????nh c?? V???nh Ba Th??nh ???? ???????c th??nh l???p tr??n ?????o Kodiak n??m 1784, v?? Shelikhov s???ng ??? ???? trong hai n??m v???i v??? v?? 200 ng?????i kh??c.

T??? V???nh Ba Th??nh, ng?????i Nga d???n m??? r???ng kh??m ph?? ?????t li???n Alaska, v?? c??c trung t??m bu??n b??n l??ng th?? kh??c ???? ???????c th??nh l???p. N??m 1786, Shelikhov tr??? v??? Nga v?? n??m 1790 c??? Aleksandr Baranov ?????n qu???n l?? c??ng vi???c c???a m??nh ??? Alaska.

Baranov th??nh l???p C??ng ty M??? Nga (Russian American Company) v?? ?????n n??m 1799 th?? ???????c c???p ?????c quy???n khai th??c Alaska. Baranov m??? r???ng giao th????ng c???a Nga xu???ng b??? bi???n ph??a t??y B???c M???, v?? v??o n??m 1812, sau nhi???u n??? l???c kh??ng th??nh c??ng, ???? th??nh l???p ???????c m???t khu ?????nh c?? t???i B???c California g???n V???nh Bodega. C??c t??u bu??n c???a Anh v?? M??? s???m ph???n ?????i y??u s??ch c???a Nga ?????i v???i b??? bi???n ph??a t??y b???c n?????c M???, v?? ng?????i Nga ph???i r??t lui v??? ph??a b???c t???i bi??n gi???i ph??a nam hi???n t???i c???a Alaska. M???i quan t??m c???a Nga ?????i v???i Alaska gi???m d???n, v?? sau cu???c Chi???n tranh Crimea v??o nh???ng n??m 1850, m???t n?????c Nga g???n nh?? ki???t qu??? ???? t??m c??ch b??n l??nh th??? n??y ??i.

Ch??nh ph??? Sa ho??ng ?????u ti??n ti???p c???n Hoa K??? ????? b??n l??nh th??? n??y l?? trong th???i k??? ch??nh quy???n c???a T???ng th???ng James Buchanan, nh??ng cu???c ????m ph??n ???? b??? ????nh tr??? b???i s??? b??ng n??? c???a cu???c N???i chi???n Hoa K???. Sau chi???n tranh, B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao William H. Seward, m???t ng?????i ???ng h??? vi???c m??? r???ng l??nh th???, ???? mong mu???n mua v??ng ?????t r???ng l???n c???a Alaska, v???n l???n b???ng m???t ph???n n??m ph???n c??n l???i c???a Hoa K???. Ng??y 30 th??ng 3 n??m 1867, B??? tr?????ng Ngo???i giao William H. Seward ???? k?? m???t hi???p ?????c v???i Nga ????? mua Alaska v???i gi?? 7,2 tri???u ???? la. M???c d?? m???c gi?? c???a th????ng v??? l?? kho???ng hai xu m???t m???u Anh, nh??ng vi???c mua Alaska ???? b??? nh???o b??ng trong Qu???c h???i v?? ???????c b??o ch?? g???i l?? ???tr?? ??i??n r??? c???a Seward???, ???h???p ?????ng n?????c ???? c???a Seward???, v?? ???v?????n g???u B???c c???c??? c???a T???ng th???ng Andrew Johnson. V??o th??ng T?? n??m 1867, Th?????ng vi???n ph?? chu???n hi???p ?????c v???i ch??nh l???ch ch??? m???t l?? phi???u.

M???c d?? vi???c ?????nh c?? ng?????i M??? t??? l???c ?????a Hoa K??? ??? Alaska b???t ?????u m???t c??ch ch???m ch???p, nh??ng vi???c ph??t hi???n ra v??ng n??m 1898 ???? nhanh ch??ng d???n t???i m???t l??n s??ng ng?????i nh???p c?? v??o l??nh th??? n??y. Alaska, v???n gi??u t??i nguy??n thi??n nhi??n, ???? ????ng g??p v??o s??? th???nh v?????ng c???a M??? k??? t??? ????. V??o ng??y 3 th??ng 1 n??m 1959, T???ng th???ng Dwight D. Eisenhower ???? k?? m???t tuy??n b??? x??c nh???n l??nh th??? Alaska tr??? th??nh bang th??? 49 c???a Hoa K???.

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