Cu???c Tr?????ng Chinh m???i: Chi???n tranh th????ng m???i Trung ??? M???

Thứ sáu - 05/07/2019 23:58
Khi T???ng th???ng Donald Trump v?? Ch??? t???ch T???p C???n B??nh g???p nhau t???i H???i ngh??? G20 v??o th??ng 6/2019, nhi???u ng?????i hy v???ng r???ng h??? s??? ??i ?????n m???t th???a thu???n n??o ???? nh???m ch???m d???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? M???. Nh??ng nh???ng hy v???ng nh?? v???y nhi???u l???n ???????c kh??i d???y r???i l???i b??? d???p t???t k??? t??? khi cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i b???t ?????u v??o n??m 2018. Tuy nhi??n, c??c nh?? quan s??t v???n ?????t c??u h???i r???ng
Cu???c Tr?????ng Chinh m???i: Chi???n tranh th????ng m???i Trung ??? M???


Cu???c Tr?????ng Chinh m???i: Chi???n tranh th????ng m???i Trung ??? M???

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T??c gi???: Felix K. Chang | Bi??n d???ch: V??n C?????ng

Khi T???ng th???ng Donald Trump v?? Ch??? t???ch T???p C???n B??nh g???p nhau t???i H???i ngh??? G20 v??o th??ng 6/2019, nhi???u ng?????i hy v???ng r???ng h??? s??? ??i ?????n m???t th???a thu???n n??o ???? nh???m ch???m d???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? M???. Nh??ng nh???ng hy v???ng nh?? v???y nhi???u l???n ???????c kh??i d???y r???i l???i b??? d???p t???t k??? t??? khi cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i b???t ?????u v??o n??m 2018. Tuy nhi??n, c??c nh?? quan s??t v???n ?????t c??u h???i r???ng cu???c chi???n n??y c?? th??? k??o d??i bao l??u. N???n kinh t??? c???a hai qu???c gia c?? m???i quan h??? m???t thi???t v???i nhau ?????n n???i nh?? s??? h???c Niall Ferguson ???? ?????t ra thu???t ng??? ???Chimerica??? ????? m?? t??? ch??ng. M???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i k??o d??i h???n s??? g??y t???n k??m cho c??? hai. ???? h???n ???? l?? m???t s??? kh??ch l??? ????? l???n ????? hai b??n gi???i quy???t nh???ng b???t ?????ng gi???a h??? tr?????c khi cu???c xung ?????t tr??? n??n d??? d???i h??n n???a.

Cho ?????n l??c n??y, ??i???u ???? v???n ch??a x???y ra. Sau ?????t ??p thu??? v?? thu??? tr??? ????a ban ?????u ?????i v???i s??? h??ng h??a tr??? gi?? 50 t??? USD c???a m???i b??n, M??? ???? ??p ?????t m???c thu??? 10% ?????i v???i m???t lo???t m???t h??ng nh???p kh???u kh??c t??? Trung Qu???c tr??? gi?? 200 t??? USD v??o th??ng 9/2018. ????? ????p tr???, Trung Qu???c ???? ????nh thu??? t??? 5%-10% ?????i v???i m???t danh s??ch c??c m???t h??ng nh???p kh???u t??? M??? tr??? gi?? 60 t??? USD. K??? ????, sau khi Trung Qu???c r??t l???i c??c cam k???t m?? n?????c n??y ???? ????a ra trong c??c cu???c ????m ph??n th????ng m???i, M??? ???? t??ng thu??? su???t ?????i v???i danh m???c h??ng h??a Trung Qu???c tr??? gi?? 200 t??? USD l??n 25% v??o th??ng 5/2019. Trung Qu???c ???? l??m theo khi t??ng thu??? su???t ?????i v???i danh m???c h??ng h??a M??? tr??? gi?? 60 t??? USD l??n t???i 25%. Kh??ng ch???u thua k??m, Trump ???? ra l???nh cho ch??nh quy???n chu???n b??? s???n s??ng ????? ??p thu??? m???i ?????i v???i 300 t??? USD h??ng h??a c??n l???i m?? M??? nh???p kh???u t??? Trung Qu???c. N???u M??? l??m nh?? v???y, c?? th??? d??? ??o??n r???ng Trung Qu???c s??? ??p thu??? ?????i v???i s??? h??ng h??a c??n l???i tr??? gi?? kho???ng 20 t??? USD m?? n?????c n??y nh???p kh???u t??? M???.

Gi???ng nh?? c??c cu???c chi???n tranh th???c s???, chi???n tranh th????ng m???i c?? th??? v?????t qu?? t???m ki???m so??t. V??o m???t th???i ??i???m n??o ????, nh???ng t??nh to??n c???n th???n v??? ph?? t???n v?? l???i ??ch b???t ?????u tr??? n??n k??m quan tr???ng h??n so v???i ban ?????u. M???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i c?? th??? d??? d??ng leo thang tr??? th??nh l???c c???n kinh t??? ?????i v???i c??? hai b??n tham chi???n. Hi???n t???i, c??? Trung Qu???c l???n M??? d?????ng nh?? ?????u kh??ng qu?? quan t??m ?????n ??i???u ????. ????? hi???u ???????c l?? do t???i sao, ch??ng ta c???n xem x??t quan ??i???m c???a m???i b??n v??? cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i n??y.

Quan ??i???m c???a Trung Qu???c

?????i v???i Trung Qu???c, cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i v???i M??? di???n ra v??o th???i ??i???m kh??ng m???y ph?? h???p. Trong b???i c???nh kinh t??? to??n c???u suy y???u, B???c Kinh ??ang xoay x??? v???i vi???c chuy???n ?????i n???n kinh t??? c???a n?????c n??y t??? ch??? d???a tr??n ho???t ?????ng ?????u t?? quy m?? l???n v?? ng??nh s???n xu???t do xu???t kh???u th??c ?????y sang m???t n???n kinh t??? m?? ??? ???? ti??u d??ng trong n?????c ????ng vai tr?? l???n h??n. Cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i n??y ch???c ch???n ???? l??m ph???c t???p th??m t??nh h??nh. M???c d?? v???y, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c c?? l?? do ????? tin r???ng h??? c?? kh??? n??ng th???ng th??? trong m???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i ch???ng l???i M???. M???t c???u th??? tr?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c th???m ch?? c??n c??ng khai khoe khoang nh???ng l?? do ????.

Kh??? n??ng ti???p c???n ngu???n t??i ch??nh l?? m???t trong nh???ng t??i s???n l???n nh???t trong kho v?? kh?? chi???n tranh th????ng m???i c???a B???c Kinh, cho ph??p h??? gi???m nh??? t??c ?????ng c???a cu???c xung ?????t ?????i v???i n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c. Theo th??ng tin m?? c??c nh?? b??nh lu???n Trung Qu???c th?????ng vi???n d???n, Ng??n h??ng Nh??n d??n Trung Qu???c (PBOC), ng??n h??ng trung ????ng c???a n?????c n??y, n???m gi??? kho???ng 3.000 t??? USD d??? tr??? ngo???i h???i. ??i???u th???m ch?? c??n quan tr???ng h??n l?? n??? ch??nh ph??? c???a Trung Qu???c hi???n ch??? ??? m???c 50% t???ng sang ph???m qu???c n???i (GDP) (so v???i t??? su???t tr??n 100% c???a M??? v?? g???n 240% c???a Nh???t B???n). ??i???u ???? ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c B???c Kinh c???m th???y h??? v???n c??n c?? h???i vay th??m ti???n. V?? h??? ???? l??m ????ng nh?? v???y. T???m th???i g???t sang m???t b??n nh???ng n??? l???c ki???m ch??? n??? c???a ch??nh quy???n c??c ?????a ph????ng ??? Trung Qu???c, B???c Kinh d??? ki???n s??? cho ph??p h??? ph??t h??nh ch???ng kho??n n??? m???i tr??? gi?? h??n 300 t??? USD trong n??m 2019, cao h??n 13% so v???i n??m tr?????c ????.

Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c c??ng c?? th??? ch??? ?????o PBOC th??c ?????y thanh kho???n t??i ch??nh nh?? h??? t???ng l??m. PBOC c?? th??? l??m v???y theo c??ch tr???c ti???p l?? b??m ti???n m???t, ho???c theo c??ch gi??n ti???p l?? h??? th???p m???c d??? tr??? b???t bu???c ?????i v???i c??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c (l?????ng ti???n m?? c??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c c???n g???i ??? PBOC). Tr??n th???c t???, ng?????i ta ???? ph???i vi???n t???i c??ch ti???p c???n tr???c ti???p v??o th??ng 5/2019. Sau khi ch??nh ph??? ti???p qu???n ng??n h??ng Baoshang, m???t nh?? cho vay Trung Qu???c ??ang g???p r???c r???i, PBOC ???? b??m 62 t??? USD v??o c??c th??? tr?????ng t??i ch??nh c???a Trung Qu???c v?? b??m th??m 72 t??? USD n???a 2 tu???n sau ???? ????? xoa d???u c??c th??? tr?????ng n??y. Trong n??m tr?????c ????, PBOC c??ng ???? 5 l???n s??? d???ng ph????ng ph??p gi??n ti???p ????? th??c ?????y cho vay v?? t??ng tr?????ng kinh t???. V?? trong tr?????ng h???p ??i???u ???? kh??ng ??em l???i k???t qu??? nh?? mong mu???n, th?? Trung Qu???c ???????c cho l?? s??? ?????t ra h???n ng???ch cho vay ????? bu???c c??c ng??n h??ng n?????c n??y cho vay ti???n.

H??n n???a, B???c Kinh ???? cho th???y h??? s???n s??ng can thi???p v??o c??c th??? tr?????ng b???ng c??c c??ch th???m ch?? c??n tr???c ti???p h??n n???a. Sau khi th??? tr?????ng ch???ng kho??n Trung Qu???c lao d???c v??o n??m 2015, ch??nh ph??? ???? can thi???p nh???m ch???ng ????? gi?? c??? phi???u. H??? ???? ch??? th??? PBOC cung c???p ti???n m???t cho c??c qu??? do ch??nh ph??? h??? tr???. Sau ????, h??? ch??? ?????o c??c qu??? n??y, v?? th???m ch?? l?? m???t s??? c??ng ty m??i gi???i, mua c??? phi???u. ?????n ?????u n??m 2016, B???c Kinh ???? ??i xa ?????n m???c c???m giao d???ch h??ng h??a k??? h???n v?? ch???ng kho??n ph??i sinh b???ng c??ch ti???n h??nh ?????i???u m?? theo l???i ph??n n??n c???a nhi???u nh?? qu???n l?? qu??? l?? nh???ng chi???n d???ch ??e d???a nh???m v??o c??c th????ng nh??n, c??? trong l???n ngo??i n?????c???. Trong m???t s??? tr?????ng h???p, Ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c ???? m??? c??c cu???c ??i???u tra h??nh s??? ?????i v???i c??c nh?? qu???n l?? b??n kh???ng c??? phi???u.

Tuy nhi??n, c?? m???t ????n b???y m?? B???c Kinh s??? h???u nh??ng do d??? khi s??? d???ng, ???? l?? gi???m gi?? ?????ng nh??n d??n t???. M???c d?? h??nh ?????ng n??y s??? ngay l???p t???c th??c ?????y n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c, song n?? c??ng s??? l??m gi???m b???t s???c ??p l???m ph??t m?? thu??? quan c???a Trung Qu???c g??y ra ?????i v???i n???n kinh t??? M???. T???i t??? h??n, n?? s??? ph?? v??? ???ch???t ch???n??? ti???n t??? kh??ng ch??nh th???c c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i ?????ng USD, ?????ng ti???n m?? t??? gi?? c???a n?? v???i ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? ch??a bao gi??? v?????t qu?? m???c 7 nh??n d??n t??? ?????i 1 USD trong h??n 10 n??m qua. M???c d?? ????n b???y n??y v??? b???n ch???t kh??ng c?? g?? ?????c bi???t, nh??ng vi???c ph?? v??? n?? s??? cho th???y r???ng c??c ??i???u ki???n kinh t??? ??? Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? n??n t???i t??? ?????n m???c B???c Kinh kh??ng c??n kh??? n??ng b???o v??? ch???t ch???n n??y n???a. L???ch s??? ??em l???i s??? ch??? d???n v??? nh???ng g?? c?? th??? x???y ra ti???p theo. Trong v??ng 1 th??ng sau khi Trung Qu???c gi???m 2% gi?? tr??? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? v??o n??m 2015, d??? tr??? ngo???i h???i c???a PBOC ???? gi???m g???n 94 t??? USD. ?????n cu???i n??m ????, h??n 320 t??? USD ???? b??? r??t kh???i ngu???n d??? tr??? c???a ng??n h??ng n??y; nh???ng k??? v???ng xu???t hi???n c??ng l??c ???? v??? m???t n???n kinh t??? M??? m???nh m??? h??n ???? ?????y nhanh t???c ????? c???a ti???n tr??nh n??y.

M???c d?? v???y, B???c Kinh c?? th??? t??m c??ch khi???n M??? ph???i ch???u c??c ph?? t???n kinh t??? cao h??n. Hi???u qu??? c???a vi???c s??? d???ng bi???n ph??p t??ng thu??? h??n n???a ?????i v???i h??ng h??a M??? ????? ?????t ???????c m???c ????ch ???? l?? c?? h???n. ???? l?? v?? gi?? tr??? h??ng nh???p kh???u t??? M??? v??o Trung Qu???c ch??? b???ng 1/4 gi?? tr??? h??ng xu???t kh???u t??? Trung Qu???c sang M???. (Qu??? th???t, ???? l?? ??i???m then ch???t c???a cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i). Tuy v???y, B???c Kinh c?? th??? g??y r???c r???i cho c??c c??ng ty M??? b???ng c??ch l??m ch???m l???i qu?? tr??nh th??ng quan v?? ph?? duy???t gi???y ph??p cho h???. B???c Kinh th???m ch?? c?? th??? c???m to??n b??? ho???t ?????ng c???a c??c c??ng ty n??y ??? Trung Qu???c. Tuy nhi??n, c?? kh??? n??ng b?????c ??i ?????u ti??n c???a B???c Kinh s??? l?? h???n ch??? kh??ch du l???ch Trung Qu???c ?????n M???, v???n ??em l???i cho M??? t???ng c???ng h??n 30 t??? USD m???i n??m. ???? l?? c??ch Trung Qu???c tr???ng ph???t H??n Qu???c v?? n?????c n??y ???? ph???t l??? s??? ph???n ?????i c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i vi???c tri???n khai H??? th???ng ph??ng th??? t??n l???a t???m cao giai ??o???n cu???i (THAAD) c???a M??? tr??n l??nh th??? c???a m??nh v??o n??m 2017.

M???t s??? ng?????i l???p lu???n r???ng PBOC c?? th??? b??n s??? tr??i phi???u ch??nh ph??? M??? tr??? gi?? 1.200 t??? USD, v???n chi???m m???t ph???n l???n ngu???n d??? tr??? ngo???i h???i c???a ng??n h??ng n??y. Vi???c n??y s??? l??m gi???m gi?? c??c tr??i phi???u ???? v?? ?????y l???i t???c c???a ch??ng l??n. L??i su???t c???a M??? do ???? s??? t??ng cao h??n, g??y t???n h???i t???i n???n kinh t??? M???. Trong khi chi???n l?????c nh?? v???y l?? m???t l???a ch???n r???t th???c t??? c??ch ????y 10 n??m khi v???n d??? d??ng ch???y v??o Trung Qu???c, th?? gi??? ????y n?? kh??ng c??n th???c t??? nh?? tr?????c n???a. N??m 2019, Trung Qu???c ??ang tr??n ???? th??m h???t t??i kho???n v??ng lai. N??i c??ch kh??c, v???n ??ang ch???y ra kh???i Trung Qu???c. M???c d?? c?? th??? tranh lu???n v??? vi???c li???u t??nh tr???ng th??m h???t t??i kho???n v??ng lai c???a Trung Qu???c mang t??nh c???u tr??c hay ch??? l?? t???m th???i, song ch??? ri??ng vi???c t??nh tr???ng n??y t???n t???i th??i ???? cho th???y vi???c ?????t ng???t b??n tr??i phi???u ch??nh ph??? M??? s??? k??o theo nh???ng r???i ro. Vi???c n??y c?? th??? d???n t???i t??nh tr???ng tho??i v???n h??ng lo???t kh???i Trung Qu???c, do s??? ch??nh l???ch v??? l???i t???c gi???a n??? ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c v?? n??? ch??nh ph??? M??? s??? thu h???p l???i. Trong khi ????, khi x??t t???i l??i su???t g???n b???ng 0 ho???c ??m ??? h???u h???t c??c n?????c ph??t tri???n l???n, nhu c???u l???i t???c to??n c???u c?? th??? gi???i quy???t ngay c??? vi???c tr??i phi???u ch??nh ph??? M??? b??n ra ??? ???t m?? kh??ng g???p nhi???u kh?? kh??n, l??m gi???m nh??? nh???ng t??c ?????ng c?? h???i nh???t c???a h??nh ?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c.

Nh???ng ng?????i kh??c ???? ????a ra kh??? n??ng B???c Kinh c?? th??? h???n ch??? xu???t kh???u kim lo???i ?????t hi???m sang M???, v?? Trung Qu???c hi???n ki???m so??t kho???ng 90% ho???t ?????ng s???n xu???t m???t h??ng n??y c???a th??? gi???i. Nh???ng kim lo???i ???? c?? ?? ngh??a s???ng c??n ?????i v???i nhi???u thi???t b??? ??i???n t??? hi???n ?????i, t??? ??i???n tho???i th??ng minh ?????n c??c h??? th???ng t??n l???a d???n ???????ng. N???u B???c Kinh l??m nh?? v???y th?? ch???c h???n ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? l???n ?????u ti??n. N??m 2010, Trung Qu???c ????a ra h??? th???ng h???n ng???ch c???t gi???m t???i 40% l?????ng kim lo???i ?????t hi???m xu???t kh???u c???a n?????c n??y. Vi???c n??y ???? ?????y gi?? c??c kim lo???i n??y t??ng v???t trong 2 n??m, khi???n M??? ????? ????n ph???n ?????i l??n T??? ch???c th????ng m???i th??? gi???i (WTO). Trong khi ????, cung c???u tr??n to??n c???u ???? c?? s??? ??i???u ch???nh. C??c nh?? khai th??c b??n ngo??i Trung Qu???c ???? s???n xu???t nhi???u kim lo???i ?????t hi???m h??n, v?? c??c nh?? s???n xu???t ????? ??i???n t??? b???t ?????u s??? d???ng c??c kim lo???i thay th???. V??o th???i ??i???m WTO ????a ra ph??n quy???t c?? l???i cho M??? v?? Trung Qu???c d??? b??? h???n ng???ch xu???t kh???u v??o n??m 2014, gi?? c???a h???u h???t kim lo???i ?????t hi???m ???? gi???m xu???ng g???n m???c tr?????c h???n ng???ch. D?? m???t s??? c??ng ty M??? ch???c ch???n ???? ch???u thi???t h???i, song ???? kh??ng c?? th???m h???a n??o gi??ng xu???ng ?????i ??a s??? c??c c??ng ty.

Cu???i c??ng, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c c?? l??? ????n gi???n tin r???ng h??? c?? kh??? n??ng c???m c??? l??u h??n M???. Ch??? v??i ng??y sau khi c??ng b??? ?????t ??p thu??? m???i nh???t ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c, Trump ???? tr?? ho??n m???t ph???n trong k??? ho???ch ??p thu??? c?? li??n quan t???i ph??? t??ng ?? t?? sau khi m???t b??o c??o c???a B??? Th????ng m???i M??? ti???t l??? r???ng ng??nh c??ng nghi???p ?? t?? c???a M??? s??? c???n nhi???u th???i gian h??n ????? th??ch ???ng v???i c??c m???c thu??? m???i. ??i???u ???? c?? th??? cho Trung Qu???c th???y r???ng vi???c gia t??ng s???c ??p kinh t??? ?????i v???i M??? c?? th??? khi???n Trump ph???i ch???u thua tr?????c. Nh??ng ngay c??? khi ??ng kh??ng l??m v???y, th?? nhi???m k??? t???ng th???ng hi???n t???i c???a Trump c??ng s??? k???t th??c v??o ?????u n??m 2021. N???u Trump kh??ng t??i ?????c c???, T???p C???n B??nh c?? th??? th????ng l?????ng v???i m???t v??? t???ng th???ng M??? m???i, ng?????i m?? c?? th??? s??? s???n s??ng ch???p nh???n m???t th???a thu???n c?? l???i h??n cho Trung Qu???c.

Quan ??i???m c???a M???

Trump kh??ng c?? x??? gi???ng nh?? h???u h???t c??c ch??nh tr??? gia M???, b???t lu???n ??i???u ???? l?? t???t hay x???u. ??ng ???? cho th???y m??nh s???n s??ng hy sinh v???n li???ng ch??nh tr??? ng???n h???n, th???m ch?? l?? l???i nhu???n c???a doanh nghi???p M???, ????? gi??nh ???????c t??nh c???nh tranh kinh t??? l??u d??i cho M???. ??ng d?????ng nh?? c??ng chu???n b??? s???n s??ng ????? n???n kinh t??? M??? c?? th??? ??????ng ?????u v???i m???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i. Trong n??m ?????u ti??n tr??n c????ng v??? t???ng th???ng, ??ng ???? c???t gi???m thu???, t???o l???c ?????y cho n???n kinh t??? M??? m?? ph???n l???n ???? ph???c h???i sau cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh n??m 2008. ??i???u ???? ???? gi??p gi???m t??? l??? th???t nghi???p xu???ng m???c th???p k??? l???c v?? l??m gia t??ng kh??? n??ng c???a n???n kinh t??? M??? trong vi???c h???p th??? c??c c?? s???c ti??u c???c.

M???c d?? Washington ????i khi c???m th???y h??? c?? ??t ????n b???y kinh t??? h??n B???c Kinh, nh?? Trump ???? b??y t??? qua nh???ng d??ng tweet c???a m??nh, song M??? c?? m???t s??? t??i s???n t??? nhi??n trong m???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i v???i Trung Qu???c. Trong s??? ch??ng, tr?????c h???t ph???i k??? ?????n vi???c n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ph??? thu???c v??o M??? nhi???u h??n so v???i chi???u ng?????c l???i. Xu???t kh???u c???a M??? sang Trung Qu???c ch??? chi???m 0,7% GDP c???a M???, trong khi ???? xu???t kh???u c???a Trung Qu???c sang M??? chi???m t???i 4,5% GDP c???a Trung Qu???c. Trong khi ph?? t???n kinh t??? d??i h???n c???a m???t cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i c?? th??? ???????c ph??n b??? ?????u h??n, Qu??? ti???n t??? qu???c t??? (IMF) g???n ????y ?????c t??nh r???ng trong ng???n h???n, cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i s??? khi???n t??ng tr?????ng GDP c???a M??? s???t gi???m ??? m???c khi???m t???n (0,3%-0,6%) nh??ng l???i khi???n t??ng tr?????ng GDP c???a Trung Qu???c s???t gi???m nhi???u h??n (0,5%-1,5%).

Ng??n h??ng d??? tr??? li??n bang ??? ng??n h??ng trung ????ng c???a M??? ??? l?? m???t t??i s???n c?? gi?? tr??? kh??c trong cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i. Trong khi c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? M??? kh??ng th??? tr???c ti???p ch??? ?????o ch??nh s??ch c???a ng??n h??ng n??y, n?? ph???n ???ng kh?? nhanh nh???y tr?????c nh???ng thay ?????i trong qu??? ?????o c???a n???n kinh t??? M???. N???u Ng??n h??ng d??? tr??? li??n bang nh???n th???y cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i b???t ?????u g??y thi???t h???i th???c s??? v??? kinh t???, th?? c?? kh??? n??ng h??? s??? h??? th???p l??i su???t ng???n h???n c???a M??? nh???m th??c ?????y ho???t ?????ng kinh t???. Trong cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh n??m 2008, Ng??n h??ng d??? tr??? li??n bang c??ng t??? ra s???n s??ng th???c hi???n c??c bi???n ph??p ti???n t??? c???c ??oan, bao g???m c??? vi???c m??? r???ng b???ng c??n ?????i k??? to??n, ????? gi??p n???n kinh t??? M??? n???u c???n thi???t. V???i s???c m???nh nh?? v???y, Ng??n h??ng d??? tr??? li??n bang c?? th??? l?? m???t c??ng c??? r???t m???nh trong cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i. Nh??ng cho ?????n nay, c?? quan n??y ???? t??? ch???i ????ng m???t vai tr?? tr???c ti???p nh?? v???y.

??????ng nhi??n, Ch??nh ph??? M??? kh??ng thi???u ????n b???y c?? th??? s??? d???ng ????? ch???ng l???i Trung Qu???c. M???t v??i trong s??? n??y kh?? d??? ??o??n. Th??ng 5/2019, Ch??nh quy???n Trump ???? ti???t l??? k??? ho???ch h??? tr??? 16 t??? USD cho n??ng d??n M??? khi c??c s???n ph???m n??ng nghi???p c???a h??? ph???i ch???u m???c thu??? cao h??n do Trung Qu???c ?????t ra. Tuy nhi??n, c??c ????n b???y kh??c c??ng ????ng ch?? ??. C??ng trong th??ng 5/2019, Washington ???? c???m c??c c??ng ty M??? l??m ??n kinh doanh v???i Huawei, nh?? s???n xu???t thi???t b??? vi???n th??ng l???n nh???t Trung Qu???c. ??i???u ???? c?? th??? ???? g??y kh?? kh??n cho Huawei. Kh??ng ???????c quy???n truy c???p v??o c??c ???ng d???ng Android c???a Google, c??c s???n ph???m c???a Huawei s??? k??m c???nh tranh h??n r???t nhi???u. V?? gi??? ????y, Ch??nh ph??? M??? ???????c cho l?? ??ang xem x??t vi???c ????a c??c c??ng ty Trung Qu???c kh??c v??o danh s??ch ??en. ??????ng nhi??n, B???c Kinh c?? th??? tr??? ????a theo c??ch t????ng t???. Nh??ng hi???n nay h??? c?? ??t m???c ti??u h??n tr?????c ????y. ???? l?? v?? B???c Kinh ???? ch??? ?????o c??c c??ng ty qu???c doanh c???a Trung Qu???c ng???ng mua h??ng t??? c??c c??ng ty l???n c???a M??? nh?? Cisco, IBM v?? Oracle t??? c??ch ????y 5 n??m.

Tuy v???y, kh??ng gi???ng nh?? B???c Kinh, Washington h???u nh?? kh??ng c?? l?? do g?? ????? tin r???ng h??? c?? th??? c???m c??? l??u h??n ch??? ????? hi???n t???i c???a Trung Qu???c, ?????c bi???t l?? sau khi tri???t l?? ch??nh tr??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh ???????c ghi v??o ??i???u l??? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c v??o n??m 2017. Tuy nhi??n, Washington c?? th??? hy v???ng c???m c??? l??u h??n ??????????ng b??ng kinh t?????? c???a Trung Qu???c. Vi???c n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ??ang h??? nhi???t v?? nh???ng kho???n n??? kh???ng l??? m?? ch??nh quy???n c??c ?????a ph????ng, c??c doanh nghi???p thu???c s??? h???u nh?? n?????c v?? ng??y c??ng nhi???u ng??n h??ng ??? Trung Qu???c ??ang ph???i g??nh ch???u c?? th??? l??m h??? nhi???t n???n kinh t??? m???t c??ch nhanh ch??ng h??n n???a l?? ??i???u m?? ai c??ng bi???t. Hi???n t???i, ni???m tin v??o 3.000 t??? USD d??? tr??? ngo???i h???i c???a Trung Qu???c nh?? l?? ph????ng k??? cu???i c??ng ???? gi??p ng??n ch???n m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng t??i ch??nh. Nh??ng n???u g??y ????? s???c ??p ?????i v???i n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c v?? c?? ????? nhi??n li???u cho n???n kinh t??? M???, Washington c?? th??? l??m suy y???u ngu???n d??? tr??? ???? v?? ?????y Trung Qu???c v??o c??i c?? th??? l?? m???t ph???n ???ng d??y chuy???n c??c th???m h???a kinh t???.

Quan ??i???m n??o ????ng ?????n h??n?

V???i nhi???u chi???n l?????c chi???n tranh th????ng m???i ??an xen nh?? v???y, th???t kh?? c?? th??? nh???n bi???t ???????c quan ??i???m n??o ????ng ?????n h??n. M???t b???ng t??nh ??i???m ????n gi???n ????nh gi?? ri??ng bi???t t???ng chi???n l?????c s??? kh??ng th??? n???m b???t ???????c c??ch m?? t???t c??? nh???ng chi???n l?????c n??y t????ng t??c v???i nhau. Thay v??o ????, vi???c theo d??i c??c th??? tr?????ng, v???n c?? hi???u qu??? trong vi???c t???ng h???p l?????ng th??ng tin kh???ng l???, c?? th??? l?? c??ch t???t nh???t ????? bi???t ???????c quan ??i???m n??o th??u t??m t??nh h??nh hi???n t???i. V?? th??? tr?????ng ch???ng kho??n Trung Qu???c v???n t????ng ?????i n??ng, n??n th??? tr?????ng t???t nh???t ????? theo d??i c?? th??? l?? th??? tr?????ng ti???n t???, nh???t l?? giao d???ch b???ng c???p ti???n t??? l?? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? v?? ?????ng USD. M???c d?? Trung Qu???c h???n ch??? giao d???ch b???ng c???p ti???n t??? n??y ??? m???c ???? x??c ?????nh tr?????c, song ?????ng ti???n c???a Trung Qu???c c?? th??? tr??i n???i trong gi???i h???n ????. V?? s??? dao ?????ng c???a ?????ng ti???n n??y c?? th??? n??i l??n nhi???u ??i???u.

N???u t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? c???a Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c gi???m so v???i M???, th?? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? t??? nhi??n s??? y???u h??n so v???i ?????ng USD. Cu???i c??ng, n?? s??? v?????t ng?????ng 7 nh??n d??n t??? ?????i 1 USD, b???t lu???n nh???ng g?? Trung Qu???c c?? th??? l??m ????? ng??n ch???n ??i???u ????. Tuy nhi??n, ??i???u quan tr???ng h??n l?? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? m???t gi?? nh?? th??? n??o. N?? s??? gi???m gi?? m???t c??ch c?? tr???t t??? hay h???n lo???n? S??? s???t gi???m nhanh ch??ng s??? cho th???y t??nh tr???ng m???t ni???m tin v??o kh??? n??ng c???a Trung Qu???c trong vi???c gi??? cho n???n kinh t??? n?????c n??y v???n h??nh ?????u ?????n. ??i???u ???? c?? th??? b??o tr?????c nh???ng v???n ????? l???n h??n ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c, c?? th??? bao g???m c??? m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? hay d??ng v???n ch???y ??? ???t ra b??n ngo??i. R???t cu???c, m???t ?????ng ti???n gi???m gi?? s??? kh??ng thu h??t ???????c v???n. Th??ng 5/2019, khi c??ng th???ng th????ng m???i gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? M??? b??ng ph??t, gi?? tr??? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? so v???i ?????ng USD ???? gi???m 2,5% ch??? trong h??n 1 tu???n.

Cu???c tr?????ng chinh

V???i vi???c m???i b??n t??? ra kh?? tho???i m??i khi cho r???ng h??? c?? th??? c???m c??? l??u h??n ?????i th??? trong cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i, kh??ng b??n n??o c?? nhi???u ?????ng l???c ????? nh?????ng b??? v??o l??c n??y. Do ????, vi???c Trung Qu???c r??t l???i nh???ng cam k???t m?? h??? ???? ????a ra trong c??c cu???c ????m ph??n th????ng m???i tr?????c ???? h???u nh?? kh??ng g??y ng???c nhi??n. Trong khi ????, c?? l??? Ch??nh quy???n Trump h???u nh?? kh??ng c???m th???y s???c ??p khi???n h??? ph???i v???i v??ng ti???n t???i m???t th???a thu???n, nh???t l?? n???u th???a thu???n ???? kh??ng ????p ???ng m???c ti??u c???a h???.

Tr??i l???i, ??i???u g??y ng???c nhi??n l?? Trump h???u nh?? kh??ng b??? c??c ?????i th??? ch??nh tr??? d?????ng nh?? r???t ki??n quy???t trong ?????ng D??n ch??? ch??? tr??ch v??? cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i n??y. Cho ?????n nay, h??? ch??? ph?? ph??n c??c chi???n thu???t c???a ??ng ch??? kh??ng ch??? tr??ch ch??nh cu???c chi???n n??y. Th?????ng ngh??? s?? Chu
P/vTheo Nghi??n c???u qu???c t???ck Schumer, m???t trong nh???ng ch??nh tr??? gia c???p cao nh???t c???a ?????ng D??n ch???, th???m ch?? c??n l??n ti???ng kh??ch l??? h??nh ?????ng c???a Trump. Trong khi ??i???u ???? c?? v??? ????ng ch?? ??, ng?????i ta c???n nh??? r???ng ch??nh ?????ng D??n ch??? m???i l?? ?????ng c?? truy???n th???ng ???ng h??? c??c ch??nh s??ch mang t??nh b???o h??? h??n. Qu??? th???t, Trump g???p nhi???u r???c r???i h??n v???i c??c th??nh vi??n trong ch??nh ?????ng C???ng h??a c???a ??ng, nh???ng ng?????i t??? l??u ???? ???ng h??? th????ng m???i t??? do. Do v???y, ngay c??? khi B???c Kinh ph???i ?????i ph?? v???i m???t v??? t???ng th???ng M??? m???i sau cu???c t???ng tuy???n c??? ti???p theo c???a M???, h??? c?? th??? s??? kh??ng ph???i ?????i ph?? v???i m???t c??ch ti???p c???n ho??n to??n m???i, nh???t l?? n???u c??c m???c thu??? c???a Ch??nh quy???n Trump ???? ??em l???i nh???ng ti???n tri???n.

Cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i M???-Trung c?? l??? ch??? m???i ch???ng ki???n c??i k???t c???a s??? kh???i ?????u v?? c??n l??u m???i ch???m d???t. Th??ng 5/2019, T???p C???n B??nh ph??t bi???u t???i Trung Qu???c r???ng n?????c n??y ??ang ??? trong ???cu???c tr?????ng chinh m???i???, ????? c???p t???i chuy???n h??nh tr??nh n???i ti???ng d??i 4.000 d???m m?? nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n Trung Qu???c ???? th???c hi???n ????? tho??t kh???i k??? th?? v??o nh???ng n??m 1930. T???p C???n B??nh c?? th??? ???? ph??t t??n hi???u ?????n ng?????i nghe ??? trong v?? ngo??i n?????c r???ng cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i c?? th??? k??o d??i. N???u ????ng nh?? v???y, th?? ?????i v???i M???, vi???c chu???n b??? ?????i ph?? v???i thu??? quan v?? nh???ng bi???n ?????ng kinh t??? k??o d??i s??? l?? kh??n ngoan. T????ng t???, T???p C???n B??nh c???n ?????m b???o r???ng ???cu???c tr?????ng chinh m???i??? c???a Trung Qu???c do ??ng d???n d???t s??? kh??ng b??? th???t b???i.

Felix K. Chang l?? nh?? nghi??n c???u cao c???p t???i Vi???n Nghi??n c???u ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i, M??? (FPRI). B??i vi???t ???????c ????ng tr??n FPRI
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