B???t ???n ??? T??n C????ng ph??? b??ng l??n S??ng ki???n ??????V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng

Ngu???n: Wei Shan, ???Xinjiang casts uncertainty over the Belt and Road Initiative???, East Asia Forum, 29/11/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

T??n C????ng l?? c???u n???i gi???a Trung Qu???c v???i c??c th??? tr?????ng Trung ??, Trung ????ng v?? Ch??u ??u, bi???n n??i n??y th??nh trung t??m c???a S??ng ki???n ??????V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng (BRI). ????y l?? trung t??m h???u c???n l???n nh???t trong s??? c??c n?????c BRI. Trong s??? s??u h??nh lang kinh t??? BRI ???? ???????c l??n k??? ho???ch, ba h??nh lang s??? ??i qua T??n C????ng, bao g???m H??nh lang kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ??? Pakistan n???i Kashgar ??? T??n C????ng v???i c???ng Gwadar ??? Pakistan. M???t trung t??m ph??n ph???i c??ng ??ang ???????c ph??t tri???n t???i Khorgos tr??n bi??n gi???i gi???a T??n C????ng v?? Kazakhstan.

B???c Kinh hy v???ng r???ng T??n C????ng c?? th??? ????ng vai tr?? nh?? m???t trung t??m v???n chuy???n v?? trung t??m v??? th????ng m???i, h???u c???n v?? v??n h??a c???a khu v???c. Trong n??m 2017, kho???ng 66 t??? USD ???? ???????c ?????u t?? v??o c?? s??? h??? t???ng t???i T??n C????ng ??? t??ng 50% so v???i n??m tr?????c. ???????ng b??? v?? ???????ng s???t cao t???c ???? ???????c x??y d???ng ????? k???t n???i khu v???c n??y v???i c??c khu v???c kh??c c???a Trung Qu???c.

Ch??nh ph??? ???? th??c ?????y h???p t??c th????ng m???i v?? t??i ch??nh gi???a T??n C????ng v?? c??c n?????c tham gia BRI. Th????ng m???i v???i c??c qu???c gia BRI chi???m h??n 80% t???ng th????ng m???i c???a T??n C????ng. V??? ph??t tri???n t??i ch??nh, khu v???c n??y d??? ki???n ??????s??? tr??? th??nh m???t trung t??m thanh to??n ?????ng Nh??n d??n t??? xuy??n bi??n gi???i.

Tuy nhi??n, t???nh n??y l?? m???t trong nh???ng khu v???c b???t ???n nh???t ??? Trung Qu???c. C??ng th???ng v?? b???o l???c s???c t???c ???? t???n t???i t??? l??u ??? T??n C????ng, t???o ra s??? b???t ?????nh cho c??c d??? ??n BRI. Ch??nh quy???n c?? c???a H??? C???m ????o v?? ??n Gia B???o ???? th??? nghi???m chi???n l?????c ???ph??t tri???n tr?????c ti??n???, v???i hy v???ng r???ng c??c ??i???u ki???n kinh t??? ???????c c???i thi???n s??? gi??p ng?????i H???i gi??o Duy Ng?? Nh?? (Uyghur) ch???p nh???n s??? cai tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c. H??ng tr??m t??? nh??n d??n t??? ???? ???????c ????? v??o v??ng bi??n gi???i ph??a t??y xa x??i n??y, t???o ra s??? gia t??ng m???nh cho GDP c???a T??n C????ng.

Nh??ng c??c ch????ng tr??nh ph??t tri???n ???? kh??ng th??? xoa d???u n???i b???t b??nh c???a ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh??. M???t l?? do l?? t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? kh??ng l??m gi???m b???t b??nh ?????ng thu nh???p gi???a c??c nh??m s???c t???c. Kh???o s??t T??nh h??nh Lao ?????ng Trung Qu???c n??m 2012 ch??? ra r???ng thu nh???p b??nh qu??n ?????u ng?????i h??ng n??m c???a ng?????i H??n ??? T??n C????ng l?? 28.900 NDT (kho???ng 4.120 USD), trong khi thu nh???p trung b??nh c???a ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? l?? 12.800 NDT (kho???ng 1.830 USD). M???c n??y c??ng th???p h??n nhi???u so v???i c??c s???c t???c thi???u s??? kh??c ??? Trung Qu???c.

C??c d??? ??n ph??t tri???n c???a B???c Kinh t???i T??n C????ng ph??? thu???c r???t nhi???u v??o c??c doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c l???n v???n th??ch thu?? c??ng nh??n ng?????i H??n v?? k??? n??ng ng??n ng??? v?? chuy??n m??n c???a h???. Ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? tin r???ng nh???ng d??? ??n n??y ???? ????a th??m nhi???u ng?????i H??n v??o khu v???c v?? nh???ng ng?????i n??y ???? gi??nh l???y c?? h???i vi???c l??m v?? tr??? n??n gi??u, v???i ph?? t???n ???????c ?????y sang cho h???.

M???t ngu???n g??y b???t b??nh kh??c l?? c??c ch??nh s??ch t??n gi??o mang  t??nh ????n ??p trong khu v???c. Ch??nh ph??? ???? ki??n quy???t ki???m so??t c??c ho???t ?????ng t??n gi??o nh?? nghi??n c???u Kinh Qur???an, ??n chay v?? ?????i m?? c???a ng?????i H???i gi??o. Nh???ng h???n ch??? kh???c nghi???t ?????i v???i H???i gi??o ???? l??m c???c ??oan h??a nhi???u ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? v?? trong m???t ch???ng m???c n??o ???? ???? khuy???n kh??ch s??? tr???i d???y c???a ch??? ngh??a H???i gi??o c???c ??oan ??? T??n C????ng.

M???t d??ng t?? t?????ng ch??nh l??m n???n t???ng cho phong tr??o n???i d???y c???a ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? l?? ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c, b???t ngu???n t??? ch??? ngh??a Li??n Th??? (Pan-Turkism) v??o nh???ng n??m 1930. C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? nh?? Rebiya Kadeer ???? s??? d???ng ch??? ngh??a Li??n Th??? nh?? m???t ph????ng ti???n huy ?????ng ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c, d???a tr??n m???i li??n h??? l???ch s??? v?? ng??n ng??? c???a khu v???c n??y v???i c??c qu???c gia s??? d???ng ng??? h??? Th??? Nh?? K??? (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Th??? Nh?? K???, Uzbekistan ??? ND) . Ch??? ngh??a Wahhabi, m???t h???c thuy???t H???i gi??o b???o th???, ???? lan truy???n t???i mi???n nam T??n C????ng k??? t??? nh???ng n??m 1980, c??ng l??m c???c ??oan h??a c??c th??? h??? b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n ??????tr???. M???t s??? ng?????i trong s??? h??? th???m ch?? c??n b??? ???nh h?????ng b???i Ch??? ngh??a H???i gi??o (Islamism). C?? b??o c??o cho th???y kho???ng 30 ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? t??? T??n C????ng ???? ???????c ????o t???o t???i c??c tr???i hu???n luy???n chi???n binh ?????t t???i Pakistan tr?????c khi h??? ???????c tri???n khai t???i Syria.

????? ?????m b???o T??n C????ng l?? m???t trung t??m k???t n???i ????ng tin c???y cho BRI, ?????c bi???t l?? sau m???t lo???t c??c v??? b???o l???c v?? t???n c??ng kh???ng b??? t??? n??m 2013 ?????n 2014, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c ???? ??p d???ng c??ch ti???p c???n song song, k???t h???p ????n ??p n???ng tay v???i c??c ch??nh s??ch kinh t??? v?? x?? h???i. Camera gi??m s??t ???????c t??m th???y tr??n t???t c??? c??c ???????ng ph??? v?? th???m ch?? b??n ngo??i nh?? ??? c???a ng?????i d??n. C???nh s??t ???? ???????c tri???n khai ????? ti???n h??nh ki???m tra ??i???n tho???i di ?????ng ng???u nhi??n ????? t??m c??c n???i dung ????ng ng???, v?? c??c quan ch???c ?????a ph????ng ???? ???????c giao xu???ng sinh s???ng ng???n h???n trong nh?? c???a ng?????i d??n Duy Ng?? Nh??. H??? mang theo nh???ng m??n qu?? nh??? cho gia ????nh nh?? th???t ho???c ti???n m???t v?? theo d??i ch???t ch??? c??c ho???t ?????ng h??ng ng??y c???a gia ????nh. C??c tr???i c???i t???o ???????c cho l?? ??ang giam gi??? h??n m???t tri???u ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? l?? k???t qu??? c???a nh???ng ch??nh s??ch c???ng r???n n??u tr??n.

C??c ch??nh s??ch kinh t??? x?? h???i ???? t???p trung v??o vi???c l??m v?? gi??o d???c. M???t s??? ngu???n tin cho bi???t h??n m???t n???a s??? sinh vi??n t???t nghi???p ?????i h???c ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? ??ang th???t nghi???p. Thanh ni??n th???t nghi???p l?? nh???ng ??????ng vi??n??? ch??nh tham gia c??c phong tr??o n???i d???y. C??c doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c ??? T??n C????ng hi???n ???????c y??u c???u tuy???n d???ng ??t nh???t 70 ph???n tr??m nh??n vi??n m???i l?? ng?????i ?????a ph????ng, trong ???? ??t nh???t 25 ph???n tr??m l?? ng?????i d??n t???c thi???u s???. Nh?? n?????c ch???n c??c doanh nghi???p t??? c??c t???nh kh??c ????? ?????u t?? v??o T??n C????ng v???i tr???ng t??m l?? t???o vi???c l??m. N??? l???c ph??t tri???n du l???ch c??ng nh???m thu h??t thanh ni??n d??n t???c thi???u s??? ??? n??ng th??n t??m ki???m vi???c l??m trong l??nh v???c d???ch v???.

Nh??ng m???t r??o c???n l??u nay ?????i v???i ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? tr??n th??? tr?????ng vi???c l??m l?? k??? n??ng ti???ng Quan tho???i c???a h??? ??? m???t ??i???u ki???n ti??n quy???t quan tr???ng ?????i v???i nhi???u nh?? tuy???n d???ng ng?????i H??n. Ch??nh s??ch gi??o d???c m???i ???? ch?? tr???ng nhi???u h??n v??o gi??o d???c song ng???. T??? n??m 2017, mi???n nam T??n C????ng b???t ?????u cung c???p gi??o d???c m???u gi??o, ti???u h???c v?? trung h???c mi???n ph?? cho h???c sinh.

Li???u c??c ch??nh s??ch song song n??y c?? mang l???i s??? ???n ?????nh cho T??n C????ng hay kh??ng v???n c??n l?? m???t c??u h???i l???n. Nhi???u ch??nh s??ch trong ???? l?? c??c chi???n l?????c mang t??nh c?????ng ch???. D???y ti???ng ph??? th??ng ???????c th??c ?????y nh?? l?? m???t ph???n c???a k??? ho???ch r???ng l???n h??n nh???m m???c ????ch ?????ng h??a ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? v??o v??n h??a Trung Qu???c ??? ??i???u c?? nguy c?? x??a s??? n???n v??n h??a c???a ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh??. C??c tr???i c???i t???o ???????c s??? d???ng ????? ???th??c ?????y??? vi???c l??m b???ng c??ch bu???c c??c tr???i vi??n ph???i l??m vi???c t???i c??c khu c??ng nghi???p g???n ????. C??ng kh??ng c?? d???u hi???u n??o cho th???y nh???ng h???n ch??? ?????i v???i H???i gi??o s??? ???????c n???i l???ng. Nh???ng ch??nh s??ch nh?? v???y c?? kh??? n??ng g??y ra s??? kh??ng c??? l???n h??n v?? s??? ch??? tr??ch qu???c t??? m???nh m???.

T??n C????ng c?? th??? v???n ti???p t???c l?? ngu???n g???c g??y b???t ?????nh cho BRI khi m?? t??nh tr???ng b???t ???n x?? h???i khi???n c??c doanh nghi???p kh??ng m???n m?? v???i khu v???c n??y. M???t nh?? s???n xu???t gia v??? ???n ????? ???? ho??n vi???c m??? r???ng kinh doanh t???i T??n C????ng v?? c??ng th???ng s???c t???c v?? c??c th??? t???c an ninh qu?? m???c. S??? l??n ??n c???a qu???c t??? ???? t??ng l??n khi t??nh tr???ng ????n ??p ng??y m???t t???i t???. M???c d?? Trung Qu???c t??m c??ch t??ng c?????ng k???t n???i to??n c???u th??ng qua BRI, c??c ch??nh s??ch c???a h??? ??? T??n C????ng l???i c?? th??? khi???n n?????c n??y tr??? n??n c??ch xa h??n v???i nhi???u n??i tr??n th??? gi???i.

Wei Shan l?? Nghi??n c???u vi??n ch??nh t???i Vi???n ????ng ?? thu???c ?????i h???c Qu???c gia Singapore (NUS).