B??nh tr?????ng qu?? s???c: Th??ch th???c th???c s??? c???a Trung Qu???c

Thứ ba - 10/09/2019 04:40
Khi gi???i thi???u Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia m???i c???a m??nh, Nh?? Tr???ng c???a T???ng th???ng Trump ???? x??c ?????nh Trung Qu???c l?? m???t c?????ng qu???c ???theo ch??? ngh??a x??t l???i???, m???t ???k??nh ?????ch??? v?? ????????i th??? c???nh tranh???. Trong su???t 68 trang, Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia li???t k?? h??nh vi th?? ?????ch c???a B???c Kinh v?? cho r???ng ???nh h?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c t???i M??? v?? nh???ng n??i kh??c l?? ????????c h???i???. L??m nh?? v???y l?? h???p l??.
B??nh tr?????ng qu?? s???c: Th??ch th???c th???c s??? c???a Trung Qu???c

B??nh tr?????ng qu?? s???c: Th??ch th???c th???c s??? c???a Trung Qu???c

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T??c gi???: Gordon Chang | Bi??n d???ch: Tr???n Quang

Khi gi???i thi???u Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia m???i c???a m??nh, Nh?? Tr???ng c???a T???ng th???ng Trump ???? x??c ?????nh Trung Qu???c l?? m???t c?????ng qu???c ???theo ch??? ngh??a x??t l???i???, m???t ???k??nh ?????ch??? v?? ????????i th??? c???nh tranh???. Trong su???t 68 trang, Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia li???t k?? h??nh vi th?? ?????ch c???a B???c Kinh v?? cho r???ng ???nh h?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c t???i M??? v?? nh???ng n??i kh??c l?? ????????c h???i???. L??m nh?? v???y l?? h???p l??.

May m???n thay cho M??? v?? ?????i l???p v???i l??? ph???i th??ng th?????ng c???a Washington, nh?? n?????c Trung Qu???c nh??n c?? v??? h??ng m???nh tr??n th???c t??? l???i ?????c bi???t d??? b??? t???n th????ng v??o th???i ??i???m n??y. Th??? nh???t, n???n kinh t??? ??ang t??ng tr?????ng ch???m l???i c???a Trung Qu???c ??ang ?????ng tr??n b??? v???c c???a m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n???. C??ng l??c ????, B???c Kinh ??ang b??? k??o c??ng qu?? m???c, ch??? y???u do t???m nh??n b??nh tr?????ng c???a nh?? l??nh ?????o T???p C???n B??nh. C??c h??nh ?????ng khi??u kh??ch c???a Trung Qu???c ??ang khi???n c??c n?????c kh??c xa l??nh, c???ng c??? m???t li??n minh ??ang ph??t tri???n nh???m ch???ng l???i B???c Kinh. Vi???c T???p C???n B??nh kh??ng ng???ng theo ??u???i quy???n ki???m so??t tuy???t ?????i t???i qu?? nh?? ???? l??m suy y???u c??c th??? ch??? c???a Trung Qu???c. Ng?????i d??n Trung Qu???c ??ang b???n ch???n.

C??u chuy???n k??? ph??? bi???n v??? Trung Qu???c ng??y nay t????ng t??? v???i c??u chuy???n c???a Li??n X?? v??o ?????u nh???ng n??m 1970. Khi ????, ng?????i M??? tin r???ng h??? ph???i ??i???u ch???nh ????? th??ch ???ng v???i Moskva. Tuy nhi??n, trong v??ng 2 th???p k???, ????? ch??? X??vi???t ???? s???p ????? t??? b??n trong. Trump ch???c ch???n kh??ng ph???i l?? Ronald Reagan, nh??ng v??? t???ng th???ng hi???n th???i, gi???ng nh?? ng?????i ti???n nhi???m n???i ti???ng c???a ??ng, c?? b???n t??nh ngoan c??? v?? s???n s??ng ph?? b??? th??ng l???. H??n b???t c??? l??c n??o kh??c trong th???p k??? n??y, M??? ??ang ??? v??? th??? c?? th??? ????i h???i B???c Kinh ph???i tu??n th??? c??c quy t???c v?? ti??u chu???n ???? ???????c thi???t l???p.

Tho???t nh??n, s??? tr???i d???y phi th?????ng trong 4 th???p k??? c???a Trung Qu???c ??em l???i cho B???c Kinh m???t l???i th??? quy???t ?????nh ?????i v???i Washington. V?? h???u h???t c??c nh?? quan s??t ?????u tin r???ng l???i th??? ???? s??? ch??? n???i r???ng theo th???i gian. Theo m???t b??o c??o ???????c Trung t??m nghi??n c???u kinh t??? v?? kinh doanh t???i London c??ng b??? v??o th??ng 12/2017, kinh t??? Trung Qu???c s??? v?????t qua kinh t??? M??? v??o n??m 2032.

M???t s??? ng?????i cho r???ng d??? b??o n??m 2032 l?? qu?? th???n tr???ng. V??o n??m 2011, nh?? ph??n t??ch Jim O???Neill c???a t???p ??o??n Goldman Sachs cho r???ng kinh t??? Trung Qu???c s??? l?? n???n kinh t??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i v??o n??m 2027. V??o n??m 2016, m???t nh?? quan s??t ???? s??? d???ng d??? li???u c???a t??? ch???c Conference Board ????? d??? b??o r???ng n??m di???n ra s??? thay ?????i n??y tr??n th???c t??? s??? l?? n??m 2018.

C??c n???n kinh t??? l???n chi ph???i c??c n???n kinh t??? nh??? h??n, nh??ng ?????ng tr??ng ?????i t???ng b?? th?? Trung Qu???c s??? ra l???nh ???????c cho t???ng th???ng M??? v??o b???t c??? th???i gian n??o tr?????c m???t. Tr?????c h???t, h???u nh?? kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng kinh t??? Trung Qu???c s??? v?????t qua kinh t??? M??? v??o n??m 2032, ch??? ch??a n??i t???i n??m 2018 hay 2027.

Trung Qu???c ??ang ?????ng tr??n b??? v???c c???a m???t cu???c kh???ng ho???ng n??? c?? h??? th???ng. N?????c n??y ???? tr??nh ???????c m???t cu???c suy tho??i v??o n??m 2008 ch??? b???ng c??ch b???t tay th???c hi???n m???t trong nh???ng chi???n d???ch chi ti??u l???n nh???t v?? d??i nh???t trong l???ch s???, m???t n??? l???c g???m 2 ph???n. Tr?????c ti??n, ???? c?? m???t k??? ho???ch k??ch th??ch kinh t??? ch??nh th???c, m???t s??ng ki???n tr??? gi?? 586 t??? USD v?? k??o d??i trong 2 n??m. Th??? hai, B???c Kinh ???? bu???c c??c ng??n h??ng nh?? n?????c ph???i m??? r???ng t??n d???ng, ch??? y???u cho c??c th???c th??? nh?? n?????c, trong m???t ?????t chi ti??u ch??a t???ng c??. T???t c??? c??c b??? ph???n c???a nh?? n?????c ?????u ???????c huy ?????ng tham gia ch????ng tr??nh ?????y nhi???t huy???t n??y. Lin Zuoming, khi ???? l?? T???ng gi??m ?????c c???a T???p ??o??n c??ng nghi???p h??ng kh??ng Trung Qu???c, ???? c??ng khai than phi???n v??o ?????u n??m 2009 r???ng c??c quan ch???c ???? bu???c doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c n??y vay t???i 49,2 t??? USD t??? 12 ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c, tuy??n b??? r???ng ??ng lo ng???i v??? vi???c ph???i l??m g?? v???i s??? ti???n ????.

Trong 5 n??m k??? t??? n??m 2009, c??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c ???? m??? r???ng m???t l?????ng t??n d???ng g???n t????ng ??????ng v???i l?????ng t??n d???ng trong to??n b??? h??? th???ng ng??n h??ng M???, ngay c??? khi v??o cu???i n??m 2008, n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c c?? quy m?? ch??a b???ng 1/3 quy m?? n???n kinh t??? M???. V?? chi???n d???ch cho vay ti??u d??ng ???? ???????c ti???p t???c k??? t??? cu???i giai ??o???n 5 n??m ????.

C??c nh?? k??? tr??? ??? B???c Kinh t??? l??u ???? s???p ?????t c??c k???t qu???, v?? ???? l?? nh???ng g?? h??? ???? l??m trong n??m 2008. Khi h??? ch??? ng??? c??c l???c l?????ng th??? tr?????ng t???i Trung Qu???c, h??? ???? ng??n ch???n s??? ??i???u ch???nh m?? ???? qu??t qua c??c n???n kinh t??? th??? tr?????ng v??o cu???i th???p k??? v???a qua. Th??? nh??ng do c??c quan ch???c Trung Qu???c quy???t t??m tr??nh m???t cu???c suy tho??i t???i qu?? nh??, nh???ng s??? m???t c??n b???ng c?? b???n trong n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ???? tr??? n??n l???n h??n.

S??? m???t c??n b???ng nghi??m tr???ng nh???t l?? t??nh tr???ng n??? n???n c???a n?????c n??y. Trong n??m 2008, t??? l??? n??? tr??n GDP c???a Trung Qu???c, m???t tham s??? ti??u chu???n cho t??nh b???n v???ng c???a n??? (kh??? n??ng chi tr??? n??? c???a m???t qu???c gia m?? kh??ng c???n s??? h??? tr???) l?? 130%. Hi???n nay, kh??ng c?? s??? nh???t tr?? n??o v??? con s???, nh??ng nhi???u ng?????i cho r???ng n?? c?? th??? ??? tr??n m???c 300%, v?? m???t s??? ng?????i tin r???ng con s??? n??y ???? v?????t qua ng?????ng 400% sang ng?????ng r???t cao m???t khi c??i ???????c g???i l?? c??c kho???n n??? ???b??? che gi???u??? ???????c t??nh ?????n.

Gi??? ????y, c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c ??ang ti???p t???c t??ch l??y n??? ????? gi??? m???c t??ng tr?????ng. Tuy nhi??n, ?????t n?????c h??? ??ang kh??ng t??ng tr?????ng theo t???c ????? 6,7% nh?? C?? quan th???ng k?? qu???c gia c??ng b??? n??m 2016. V??o gi???a n??m 2017, Ng??n h??ng th??? gi???i ???? ph??t h??nh m???t bi???u ????? ti???t l??? n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c trong n??m 2016 ???? t??ng tr?????ng ??? m???c 1,2%. Con s??? ????, m???t m???c th???p ????ng kinh ng???c ?????i v???i m???t s??? ng?????i, l???i nh???t qu??n v???i ch??? b??o ????ng tin c???y nh???t v??? ho???t ?????ng kinh t??? Trung Qu???c: t???ng ti??u th??? n??ng l?????ng ch??nh. Trong n??m 2016, tham s??? ???? ???? t??ng 1,4%.

K??? c??? ??? m???c t??ng tr?????ng 6,7% ??? hay 6,9% nh?? ???????c c??ng b??? cho n??m 2017 ??? Trung Qu???c ??ang m???c n??? nhanh g???p 3 l???n so v???i t???c ????? n?????c n??y s???n xu???t s???n l?????ng kinh t???. B???c Kinh c?? th???, ??t nh???t trong m???t th???i gian, ti???p t???c t??ch l??y n??? v???i t???c ????? ??i??n r??? nh?? v???y, v?? h??? ki???m so??t c??c b??n cho vay v?? b??n ??i vay l???n, th??? tr?????ng v?? t??a ??n.

Fraser Howie, ?????ng t??c gi??? cu???n s??ch ???Ch??? ngh??a t?? b???n ?????: N???n t???ng t??i ch??nh mong manh c???a s??? tr???i d???y phi th?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c???, n??i v???i t??? National Interest: ???C?? v??? nh?? Trung Qu???c ngh?? r???ng n?????c n??y c?? th??? tho??t kh???i c??c v???n ????? n??? hi???n nay c???a m??nh gi???ng nh?? c??ch h??? ???? l??m trong nh???ng n??m 2000. Nh??ng n???n kinh t??? th??? gi???i hi???n r???t kh??c, Trung Qu???c khi ???? ???? h?????ng l???i t??? l??n s??ng t??ng tr?????ng to??n c???u v?? vi???c gia nh???p T??? ch???c th????ng m???i th??? gi???i (WTO), ??i???u kh??ng c??n c?? s???n n???a???.

Tuy v???y, nh?? Howie nh??n nh???n, B???c Kinh v???n ???ng???p trong t??n d???ng???. C??c nh?? k??? tr??? Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c n??i v??? ???tho??i n?????? v?? ????i khi th???c s??? t??m c??ch l??m ch???m l???i t??ng tr?????ng t??n d???ng, nh??ng h??? kh??ng duy tr?? c??c n??? l???c c???a m??nh v?? vi???c c???t gi???m n??? li??n t???c s??? d???n t???i m???t cu???c suy tho??i nghi??m tr???ng. C??c s??ng ki???n m???i nh???t c???a B???c Kinh cho th???y s??? tuy???t v???ng: gi???i thi???u c??c kho???n vay ????ng ng??? ????? b??n cho ng?????i ti??u d??ng v?? h???n ch??? vi???c b??n c??n h??? ????? ng??n ch???n gi?? tr??? lao d???c.

Nh?? nghi??n c???u Michael Pettis c???a ?????i h???c B???c Kinh n??i v???i t??? Fortune v??o cu???i n??m 2017 r???ng k??? t??? Chi???n tranh th??? gi???i th??? hai, ???? c?? ?????t nh???t h??n 20 ??i???u k??? di???u t??ng tr?????ng ?????u t?? k??o d??i c??? th???p k?????? t????ng t??? nh?? c???a Trung Qu???c. ??ng l??u ?? r???ng t???t c??? ?????u h???ng ch???u m???t ???s??? ??i???u ch???nh kh???ng khi???p???, v?? trong s??? nh???ng ti???n l??? trong l???ch s??? n??y, kh??ng ti???n l??? n??o c?? ???nh???ng s??? m???t c??n b???ng ??? m???c s??u v?? n??? ??? m???c cao??? nh?? c???a Trung Qu???c hi???n gi???.

T???i m???t th???i ??i???m n??o ????, n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i ?????i???u ch???nh???, v?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c, b???t ch???p t???t c??? quy???n l???c c???a h???, v???n ch??a vi???t l???i c??c quy t???c kinh t???. V?? v?? h??? ???? ng??n ch???n nh???ng s??? ??i???u ch???nh tr??n th??? tr?????ng trong m???t th???i gian qu?? d??i (B???c Kinh tuy??n b??? n??m 1976 l?? n??m cu???i c??ng GDP c???a Trung Qu???c suy gi???m), s??? suy tho??i kh??ng th??? tr??nh kh???i h???n ph???i r???t nghi??m tr???ng.

S??? suy tho??i nghi??m tr???ng ???? c?? th??? xu???t hi???n d?????i h??nh th???c m???t s??? s???p ????? ??? c?? l??? l?? gay g???t nh???t tr??n th??? gi???i- ho???c nhi???u th???p k??? suy tho??i ho???c s??? ????nh tr??? gi???ng nh?? suy tho??i. Cho d?? n???n kinh t??? c?? ??i???u ch???nh nh?? th??? n??o, th?? Trung Qu???c c??ng kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng b???t k???p v???i n???n kinh t??? M??? l???n h??n v?? hi???n ??ang h???i sinh v??o b???t c??? th???i ??i???m n??o trong n???a th??? k??? n??y.

V?? s??? ??i???u ch???nh c???a Trung Qu???c c?? th??? ?????n s???m. T???i ?????i h???i to??n qu???c th??? XIX c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c, ???????c t??? ch???c v??o th??ng 10/2017, Th???ng ?????c Ng??n h??ng nh??n d??n Trung Qu???c Chu Ti???u Xuy??n ???? c??ng khai suy ng???m v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c ??ang tr???i qua Th???i ??i???m Minsky ??? th???i ??i???m m?? gi?? tr??? t??i s???n s???t gi???m ?????t ng???t, b??o tr?????c m???t s??? s???p ????? c???a th??? tr?????ng.

Nh???ng b??nh lu???n kh??c th?????ng c???a l??nh ?????o ng??n h??ng trung ????ng ph???n ??nh m???i quan ng???i c???a ng?????i Trung Qu???c, c??? gi???i tinh hoa c??ng nh?? ng?????i d??n b??nh th?????ng. M???i quan t??m ???? ???????c th??? hi???n r?? trong d??ng ti???n m???t r???i kh???i n?????c n??y. Theo Bloomberg, d??ng v???n th???c t??? Trung Qu???c ????? ra n?????c ngo??i trong n??m 2015 ???? l??n ?????n 1.000 t??? USD. Trong n??m 2016, c?? v??? nh?? d??ng v???n ra n???m ????u ???? trong kho???ng 1.100 t??? USD. Trong n??m 2017, d??ng v???n ra ???? gi???m m???nh, nh??ng ch??? v?? c??c nh?? k??? tr??? Trung Qu???c ???? ??p ?????t c??c bi???n ph??p ki???m so??t v???n ng???t ngh??o, m?? nhi???u trong s??? ???? kh??ng ???????c c??ng b??? ch??nh th???c.

Kh??ng ch??? ti???n ??ang ???ch???y??? kh???i Trung Qu???c, m?? c??n c??? ch??nh ng?????i d??n n?????c n??y. C??c cu???c kh???o s??t ??? m???t s??? do c??c c?? quan nh?? n?????c c???a Trung Qu???c th???c hi???n ??? l???n l?????t cho th???y g???n m???t n???a t???ng l???p gi??u c?? c???a qu???c gia n??y c?? k??? ho???ch di c?? trong khung th???i gian 5 n??m t???i.

L??n s??ng di c?? m???i n??y, ???????c th??? hi???n trong s??? xu???t hi???n ng??y c??ng nhi???u khu??n m???t Trung Qu???c t???i c??c th??nh ph??? l???n tr??n th??? gi???i, ph???n ??nh kh??ng ch??? n???i lo l???ng v??? th???t b???i s???p t???i c???a n???n kinh t???. T???p C???n B??nh ??ang ????a Trung Qu???c ??i theo nh???ng ph????ng h?????ng ?????c bi???t ????ng lo ng???i. Vi???c ??ng kh??ng ng???ng theo ??u???i quy???n ki???m so??t ???? l??m r???i lo???n ?????ng C???ng s???n, ?????o ng?????c c??c b?????c ??i trong nhi???u th???p k??? ????? th??? ch??? ho?? n???n ch??nh tr??? Trung Qu???c. Trong su???t nhi???m k??? c???a ??ng, ???? c?? nh???ng tin ?????n v??? nh???ng n??? l???c ?????o ch??nh b???t th??nh, v???i tin ?????n g???n ????y nh???t xu???t hi???n v??o th??ng 12/2017.

?????ng th???i, tham v???ng c???a T???p C???n B??nh ??? ch??ng ta c?? n??n g???i n?? l?? tham v???ng ng??ng cu???ng hay kh??ng? ??? ???? d???n ?????n vi???c Trung Qu???c k??o c??ng qu?? m???c ??? n?????c ngo??i ??? t??? c??c khu v???c bi??n gi???i t???i c??c ?????a ??i???m xa x??i. M???t ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i ng??y c??ng khi??u kh??ch, ???????c th??? hi???n b???ng ch??? tr????ng kh??i ph???c l??nh th???, ??ang ?????y c??c n?????c kh??c v??o li??n minh ????? b???o v??? h??? kh???i ch??? ngh??a b??nh tr?????ng c???a B???c Kinh.

Nh??m quan tr???ng nh???t nh?? v???y l?? ???B??? t??????, bao g???m M???, Nh???t B???n, ??c v?? ???n ?????. Trong th???p k??? qua, B???c Kinh ???? c?? th??? ph?? ho???i h???p t??c ch???t ch??? gi???a 4 qu???c gia n??y, nh??ng sau nhi???u n??m Trung Qu???c c?? h??nh ?????ng khi??u kh??ch, nh???ng ng?????i b???n n??y ??ang h???p t??c ch???t ch??? v???i nhau. V?? h??? ??ang thu h??t c??c n?????c kh??c, ????ng ch?? ?? nh???t l?? Vi???t Nam.

B???c Kinh c?? th??? ch???c t???c H?? N???i m?? kh??ng ph???i h???ng ch???u h???u qu??? l??u d??i, nh??ng h??? kh??ng th??? mong ?????i ??i???u t????ng t??? v???i New Delhi. Khi nh??n v??? h?????ng ????ng, c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch ???n ????? t???ng kh??ng nh??n xa h??n eo bi???n Malacca. Nh??ng gi??? ????y h??? tuy??n b??? r???ng c??? Bi???n ????ng v?? bi???n Hoa ????ng ?????u c?? vai tr?? thi???t y???u ?????i v???i an ninh c???a ???n ?????. S??? thay ?????i ????, ??i???u c?? ngh??a l?? ???n ????? ??ang ph??t tri???n c??c m???i li??n k???t v???i khu v???c ????ng ??, l?? ph???n ???ng tr???c ti???p tr?????c s??? khi??u kh??ch c???a Trung Qu???c t???i c??c v??ng bi???n xung quanh b??? bi???n c???a ???n ?????.

M??? v?? c??c n?????c b???n b?? ??ang h??nh th??nh m???t s??? k???t h???p h??ng m???nh. Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia c???a Trump tuy??n b???: ???C??ng v???i nhau, M??? v?? c??c ?????ng minh v?? ?????i t??c c???a ch??ng ta ?????i di???n cho h??n m???t n???a GDP to??n c???u. Kh??ng ?????i th??? n??o c???a ch??ng ta c?? li??n minh c?? th??? so s??nh ???????c???. Ch???ng h???n, Trung Qu???c c?? m???t ?????ng minh ch??nh th???c: n?????c C???ng h??a D??n ch??? Nh??n d??n Tri???u Ti??n. N?????c n??y ch??? c?? m???t ng?????i b???n l???n l?? Nga, nh??ng Nga c??ng y???u, v?? v??? m???t s??? kh??a c???nh n??o ???? l?? m???t g??nh n???ng ?????i v???i c??c ngu???n l???c ??ang b??? k??o c??ng qu?? m???c c???a B???c Kinh. V??o m???t th???i ??i???m khi Trung Qu???c c???n b???n b??, nh?? l??nh ?????o t???i cao c???a n?????c n??y d?????ng nh?? quy???t t??m l???a ch???n c??c ?????i t??c y???u ???t v?? khi???n c??c nh?? n?????c h??ng m???nh xa l??nh.

Cu???i c??ng, x?? h???i Trung Qu???c ???? b???n ch???n, b???t ???n, d??? thay ?????i v?? t???c gi???n trong m???t th???i gian. T???p C???n B??nh ???? khi???n t??nh h??nh tr???m tr???ng h??n b???ng c??ch khuy???n kh??ch c??i m?? s??? gia Arthur Waldron thu???c ?????i h???c Pennsylvania g???i l?? m???t ???ph???n x??? ch???ng ph????ng T??y hung d??????. S??? b??i ngo???i ???? l??m n???n t???ng cho m???c ti??u c???a T???p C???n B??nh l?? t???o ra ???s??? t??? tin v??o n???n v??n h??a c???a ch??ng ta???, m???t y???u t??? trong s??ng ki???n ???B???n t??? tin??? c???a ??ng.

Nh?? m???t ph???n c???a n??? l???c ????, truy???n th??ng Trung Qu???c ???? c??? v?? vi???c ph?? h???y c??c bi???u t?????ng ???????c coi l?? c???a n?????c ngo??i, ch???ng h???n nh?? ??ng gi?? Noel trong th???i gian g???n ????y. Nh???c t???i Trung Qu???c c???a T???p C???n B??nh, Waldon n??i v???i The National Interest: ???T???t c??? ch??ng ta ?????u bi???t r???ng h???n th?? s???c t???c v?? s??? b??i ngo???i l?? thu???c ?????c thu???n t??y, kh??ng bao gi??? n??n ?????ng t???i, nh??ng c?? nh???ng th???i ??i???m khi nh???ng t??nh c???m h???p l?? nh?? v???y g??y kh?? ch???u cho m???t ch??nh ph??? qu??n phi???t. Khi ???? ch??nh ph??? s??? v???i t???i t??? thu???c, l??i ra m???t chai thu???c th?? h???n s???c t???c c?? d??n nh??n h??nh ?????u l??u x????ng ch??o tr??ng r???t ????ng s???, ngh?? r???ng ???m???t v??i gi???t n??y s??? c?? hi???u qu??????, khi h??? t??m c??ch k??ch ?????ng s??? d??n ch??ng b??nh t??nh tr??? th??nh m???t ????m ????ng ch??m trong s??? c??m h???n mang t??nh b???n n??ng v?? s??? ph?? ho???i???.

T??m l???i, ????y l?? nh???ng g?? Mao Tr???ch ????ng ???? l??m, ngo???i tr??? vi???c Mao s??? d???ng c???m t??? ???c??c l???c l?????ng h???u khuynh???, T???p C???n B??nh l???i nh???m t???i nh???ng ng?????i kh??ng ph???i l?? ng?????i Trung Qu???c. S??? t??n k??nh c???a T???p C???n B??nh d??nh cho nh?? l??nh ?????o ?????u ti??n c???a n?????c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa, ???????c th??? hi???n r?? v??o ?????u nhi???m k??? c???a ??ng h???i cu???i n??m 2012, cho th???y ??ng ngh?? r???ng Trung Qu???c n??n nh??n v??? m???t trong nh???ng giai ??o???n ??en t???i nh???t trong l???ch s??? n?????c n??y ????? t??m ki???m ngu???n c???m h???ng.

N??i ng???n g???n, Trung Qu???c ???? ??i qua ??i???m chuy???n h?????ng. Nh?? b??o Douglas Bulloch vi???t tr??n t??? Forbes r???ng ?????i???u th???c s??? b???t th?????ng v??? n??m 2017 l?? c??u chuy???n Trung Qu???c ???? ?????o ng?????c m???t c??ch ?????t ng???t nh?? th??? n??o???. Khi n??m ???? b???t ?????u, Trung Qu???c c?? v??? nh?? s??? s??? h???u c??? th??? k???. Gi??? ????y, nhi???u ng?????i lo ng???i r???ng Trung Qu???c ??ang tho??i lui v??o m???t th???i k??? nguy hi???m.

Kh??ng c?? g?? ng???c nhi??n khi nhi???u ng?????i Trung Qu???c hi???n nay ??ang sinh s???ng ??? ho???c ??ang chu???n b??? sinh s???ng ??? ??? b???t c??? ????u ngo???i tr??? Trung Qu???c.

V???y Washington c?? kh??? n??ng l??m g??? M??? c?? th??? ch??m ng??i cho c??c cu???c kh???ng ho???ng kinh t??? v?? t??i ch??nh t???i Trung Qu???c, n???u n?????c n??y l???a ch???n l??m v???y. Ch??nh quy???n Trump c?? th??? th???c hi???n ???????c ??i???u ???? b???ng c??ch kh??ng l??m g?? kh??c ngo??i th???c thi lu???t ph??p M???. C??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c ???? r???a ti???n cho Tri???u Ti??n th??ng qua New York trong nhi???u th???p k???. V??o cu???i th??ng 6/2017, B??? tr?????ng T??i ch??nh M??? Steven Mnuchin ???? ????a ng??n h??ng Dandong v??o di???n ???m???i quan ng???i r???a ti???n ch??nh??? c??n c??? theo M???c 311 c???a ?????o lu???t Y??u n?????c, theo ???? ??p ?????t c??i v??? c?? b???n l?? m???t ??n t??? h??nh ?????i v???i ng??n h??ng nh??? n??y c???a Trung Qu???c. Ng??n h??ng ???? kh??ng c??n c?? th??? th???c hi???n c??c giao d???ch b???ng ?????ng USD, ?????ng ti???n ch??? ?????o c???a th??? gi???i.

Ch??nh quy???n Trump r?? r??ng c?? ?? ?????nh ????a ng??n h??ng Dandong v??o di???n tr???ng ph???t nh???m ph??t ??i t??n hi???u ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c r???ng h??y ng???ng r???a ti???n cho B???c Tri???u Ti??n. B???c Kinh d?????ng nh?? ???? hi???u ???????c th??ng ??i???p n??y khi v??o th??ng 9/2017, Ng??n h??ng trung ????ng Trung Qu???c ???? ra l???nh cho c??c ng??n h??ng th????ng m???i c???t ?????t m???t s??? m???i quan h??? v???i Tri???u Ti??n, nh??ng c?? nh???ng d???u hi???u r?? r??ng cho th???y m???nh l???nh n??y ???? b??? ph???t l???.

Chuy??n gia v??? c??c bi???n ph??p tr???ng ph???t Joshua Stanton n??i v???i trang web The Hill v??o th??ng 12/2017: ???C??c kh??ch h??ng Trung Qu???c v???n ??ang vi ph???m c??c l???nh tr???ng ph???t c???a Li??n h???p qu???c b???ng c??ch mua than t??? Tri???u Ti??n. H??? g???n nh?? ch???c ch???n thanh to??n cho Tri???u Ti??n th??ng qua h??? th???ng t??i ch??nh c???a ch??ng ta, s??? d???ng m???t ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c. C??c t??i li???u c???a B??? T?? ph??p M??? ???? ??m ch??? c??c ng??n h??ng l???n c???a Trung Qu???c c?? li??n quan t???i c??c th????ng v??? mua than t??? Tri???u Ti??n???. V?? b???ng ch???ng cho th???y c??c th???c th??? c???a Trung Qu???c ???? chuy???n d???u cho B??nh Nh?????ng k??? t??? th??ng 10/2017, m???t l???n n???a ????i h???i ph???i c?? s??? h??? tr??? c???a c??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c.

Stanton, ng?????i ??i???u h??nh trang m???ng One Free Korea, cho bi???t: ???N???u Ch??nh quy???n Obama s???n s??ng ??p ?????t c??c kho???n ph???t n???ng ?????i v???i c??c ng??n h??ng l???n nh???t c???a ch??u ??u v?? ???? vi ph???m c??c bi???n ph??p tr???ng ph???t Iran, th?? Ch??nh quy???n Trump ph???i s???n s??ng bu???c c??c ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c ch???u tr??ch nhi???m v?? ???? vi ph???m lu???t ph??p M??? v?? c??? c??c bi???n ph??p tr???ng ph???t c???a Li??n h???p qu???c???.

Khi xem x??t t???t c??? c??c d???u hi???u, c??c ng??n h??ng l???n nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c s??? l?? m???c ti??u ch??nh c???a vi???c ??p ?????t tr???ng ph???t m???i theo m???c 311. Ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c, 1 trong 4 ng??n h??ng l???n c???a Trung Qu???c, b??? n??u t??n trong m???t b??o c??o c???a Li??n h???p qu???c n??m 2016 v?? ???? ti???n h??nh ho???t ?????ng r???a ti???n t???i Singapore cho B???c Tri???u Ti??n. R?? r??ng ng??n h??ng n??y ???? tham gia ho???t ?????ng ph???m t???i n??y t???i c??c ?????a ??i???m kh??c, ?????c bi???t t???i c??c th??nh ph??? c???a Trung Qu???c gi??p bi??n gi???i v???i Tri???u Ti??n.

Ngo??i ra, Ng??n h??ng Trung Qu???c, v???n c?? ho???t ?????ng kinh doanh t???i M???, c?? l??? kh??ng ph???i l?? ng??n h??ng l???n nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c tham gia r???a ti???n cho B??nh Nh?????ng. ???Vinh d?????? ???? c?? l??? ???????c trao cho Ng??n h??ng C??ng th????ng Trung Qu???c, ng??n h??ng l???n nh???t Trung Qu???c v?? l?? ng??n h??ng l???n nh???t th??? gi???i t??nh theo l?????ng t??i s???n.

T??c ?????ng c???a vi???c b??? ????a v??o danh s??ch tr???ng ph???t theo ?????o lu???t Y??u n?????c ?????i v???i m???t th??? ch??? l???n c???a Trung Qu???c c?? th??? l??m rung chuy???n h??? th???ng ng??n h??ng c???a Trung Qu???c, g??y b???t ???n cho th??? tr?????ng Trung Qu???c v?? cu???i c??ng g??y m???t l??ng tin v??o n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c.

N???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c c??ng ch???u ??p l???c kh??c c???a M???. Th??ng 8/2017, ?????i di???n th????ng m???i M??? Robert Lighthizer ???? kh???i ?????ng m???t cu???c ??i???u tra v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c li??n t???c ??n c???p t??i s???n tr?? tu??? c???a M???, c??n c??? theo M???c 301 c???a ?????o lu???t Th????ng m???i n??m 1974. C??c cu???c ??i???u tra n??y cho ph??p ??p ?????t c??c bi???n ph??p kh???c ph???c ?????c bi???t, ch???ng h???n nh?? thu??? quan to??n di???n. C??ng c?? m???t cu???c ??i???u tra v??? nh???p kh???u th??p v?? nh??m t??? Trung Qu???c, c??n c??? theo M???c 232 c???a ?????o lu???t M??? r???ng th????ng m???i n??m 1962. Th??ng 11/2017, B??? Th????ng m???i M??? ???? kh???i ?????ng c??c cu???c ??i???u tra ch???ng b??n ph?? gi?? v?? thu??? nh???p kh???u ch???ng b??n ph?? gi?? c??n c??? theo ?????o lu???t Thu??? quan n??m 1930.

Trung Qu???c ?????c bi???t d??? b??? t???n th????ng tr?????c h??nh ?????ng c???a M???. V??o n??m 2016, th??m h???t th????ng m???i h??ng ho?? c???a M??? v???i Trung Qu???c ???? l??n ?????n 347 t??? USD, chi???m t???i 68% th???ng d?? th????ng m???i h??ng h??a c???a Trung Qu???c, m???t con s??? g??y kinh ng???c. T??? m???i th??ng tin ???? c??, s??? ph??? thu???c c???a Trung Qu???c v??o M??? ???? n???i r???ng trong n??m 2017 khi th???ng d?? c???a n?????c n??y v???i M??? ???? t??ng l??n m???c k??? l???c, trong khi th???ng d?? chung c???a n?????c n??y l???i gi???m xu???ng.

S??? ph??? thu???c c???a Trung Qu???c v??o M??? l??m suy y???u c??u chuy???n k??? th?????ng xuy??n ???????c nghe r???ng B???c Kinh c?? th??? l??m t???n h???i ?????n n???n kinh t??? M??? b???ng c??c bi???n ph??p tr??? ????a. ????ng l?? 2 n?????c ???ng??y c??ng g???n ch???t v???i nhau???, nh?? t??? China Daily n??i v???i ch??ng ta, nh??ng ??i???u ???? kh??ng c?? ngh??a l?? M??? n??n ng???i ng???n tr?????c vi???c s??? d???ng s???c m???nh c???a m??nh. Th??? nh???t, c??c qu???c gia c?? th??m h???t th????ng m???i h???u nh?? kh??ng c?? g?? ????? m???t t??? c??c cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i. V?? v???y c??c qu???c gia c?? th???ng d?? th????ng m???i, ch???ng h???n nh?? Trung Qu???c, th?????ng do d??? tr?????c vi???c duy tr?? x??ch m??ch th????ng m???i.

H??n n???a, c?? nh???ng l?? do kh??c ????? B???c Kinh ch??n b?????c tr?????c m???t cu???c chi???n v???i Washington. M??? kh??ng c?? m???t n???n kinh t??? h?????ng ?????n vi???c b??n h??ng cho Trung Qu???c. Tuy nhi??n, Trung Qu???c l???i c?? n???n kinh t??? h?????ng t???i vi???c b??n h??ng h??a cho M???.

Cu???i c??ng, GDP c???a n???n kinh t??? M??? trong n??m 2016 ???? ?????t m???c 18.620 t??? USD. Trung Qu???c tuy??n b??? GDP n??m 2016 c???a n?????c n??y l?? 10.830 t??? USD. C??c b??n tham chi???n l???n h??n c?? nh???ng l???i th??? mang t??nh quy???t ?????nh trong c??c cu???c chi???n th????ng m???i, ?????c bi???t l?? khi kho???ng c??ch l???i l???n ?????n nh?? v???y.

??????ng nhi??n l?? B???c Kinh c?? c??c qu??n b??i c???a ri??ng m??nh. Ch???ng h???n, Trung Qu???c c?? th??? s??? d???ng kho???n n??? c???a M??? m?? n?????c n??y n???m gi??? ??? kho???ng 1.190 t??? USD ??? ????? g??y ???nh h?????ng ?????n Washington. K??? t??? gi???a n??m 2007, truy???n th??ng nh?? n?????c Trung Qu???c ???? n??i v??? vi???c s??? d???ng ???l???a ch???n c???c ??oan???: b??n n??? c???a M??? ????? tr???ng ph???t Washington. V??o th??ng 1, c??c quan ch???c Trung Qu???c r?? r??ng ???? x?? x??o v???i Bloomberg r???ng h??? c?? th??? ng???ng mua n??? c???a M???.

C???c qu???n l?? ngo???i h???i qu???c gia c???a Trung Qu???c ???? b??c b??? th??ng tin n??y, v?? Trung Qu???c ch??a bao gi??? s??? d???ng l???a ch???n c???c ??oan v?? l?? do ch??nh ????ng. Th??? nh???t, Ng??n h??ng trung ????ng Trung Qu???c ???? v?? ??ang b??n c??c ngh??a v??? n??? c???a B??? T??i ch??nh M??? k??? t??? n??m 2014 ????? b???o v??? ?????ng nh??n d??n t??? c???a m??nh, nh?? m???t chi???n thu???t nh???m gi???m d??ng v???n ra. K??? t??? ????, d??? tr??? ngo???i h???i c???a Trung Qu???c ???? gi???m t???i g???n 900 t??? USD theo c??c b??o c??o ch??nh th???c, v?? c??n nhi???u h??n n???a theo c??c t??nh to??n kh??ng ch??nh th???c. V?? v???y, B???c Kinh, v?? nh???ng l?? do c???a ri??ng m??nh, ???? b??n n??? b???ng ?????ng USD trong th???i gian ????, trong khi M??? v???n kh??ng b??? ???nh h?????ng.

Ngo??i ra, b??n n??? kh??ng h???n l?? m???t v?? kh?? hi???u qu???. C??c th????ng v??? b??n n??? b???ng ?????ng USD ??? t???t c??? c??c ngh??a v??? n??? qu???c gia c???a M??? ?????u ???????c ?????nh gi?? b???ng ?????ng ti???n c???a ch??nh n?????c n??y ??? s??? gi??p Trung Qu???c c?? ???????c ?????ng USD. N???u B???c Kinh ?????nh b??n n??? ????? nh???m t???i Washington, h??? s??? ph???i chuy???n ?????i ti???n USD thu ???????c th??nh c??c t??i s???n ???????c ?????nh gi?? b???ng c??c ?????ng ti???n kh??c. ??i???u n??y c?? ngh??a l?? gi?? tr??? c???a c??c ?????ng ti???n n??y s??? t??ng v???t, do ??p l???c ???????c t???o ra t??? c??c th????ng v??? mua c???a Trung Qu???c. V?? ??i???u n??y c??ng c?? ngh??a l?? ng??n h??ng trung ????ng c???a c??c n?????c ???? s??? ph???i mua ?????ng USD ????? ????a ?????ng ti???n c???a n?????c h??? tr??? l???i m???c tr?????c khi c??c th????ng v??? c???a B???c Kinh di???n ra. T??m l???i, c??c h??nh ?????ng c???a Trung Qu???c h???u nh?? kh??ng c?? t??c ?????ng trong d??i h???n ?????i v???i gi?? tr??? c???a ?????ng USD. Tuy nhi??n, c??c th????ng v??? mua li??n t???c c???a Trung Qu???c s??? ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c n??? c???a M??? s??? ???????c c??c b???n b?? c???a M??? n???m gi???, thay v?? Trung Qu???c.

B???c Kinh qu??? th???c c?? ???nh h?????ng ????n b???y ????ng k??? ?????i v???i c??c c??ng ty M??? l??m ??n t???i Trung Qu???c ??? c??c doanh nghi???p n??y lu??n g???n gi???ng v???i c??c con tin ??? nh??ng quy???n l???c c???a Trung Qu???c kh??ng ????ng k??? nh?? v??? b??? ngo??i. Trong th???i k??? T???p C???n B??nh n???m quy???n, B???c Kinh ???? t???n c??ng c??c doanh nghi???p n?????c ngo??i theo nh???ng c??ch th???c ?????c bi???t mang t??nh c?????p b??c, n??n h??? ???? ph???i ch???u nhi???u thi???t h???i. B???c Kinh c?? th??? l??m nhi???u h??n ????? g??y thi???t h???i cho h???, nh??ng d?? th??? n??o th?? h??? r???t c?? kh??? n??ng s??? l??m nh?? v???y khi T???p C???n B??nh t??m c??ch ????ng l???i c??c c?? h???i th??? tr?????ng cho c??c ?????i th??? c???nh tranh n?????c ngo??i.

Trong b???t k??? tr?????ng h???p n??o, Ch??nh quy???n Trump kh??ng h??? b???t l???c. H??? lu??n c?? th??? ti???n h??nh tr??? ????a nh???m v??o c??c doanh nghi???p Trung Qu???c l??m ??n t???i M???, v?? trong tr?????ng h???p Trung Qu???c ch??nh th???c t???ch thu t??i s???n, h??? c?? th??? ????ng b??ng c??c ngh??a v??? n??? c???a M??? m?? Trung Qu???c t??ch tr???. C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c lu??n c?? th??? ????a ra nh???ng l???i ??e d???a v?? ngh??a ??? v?? h??? s??? l??m nh?? v???y ??? nh??ng h??? ??ang kh??ng n???m trong tay l?? b??i t???y.

C??c nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c c?? m???t l???i th??? quan tr???ng, nh??ng ???? l?? m???t l???i th??? m?? ch??nh ng?????i M??? ???? trao cho B???c Kinh. V?? ???? l?? m???t l???i th??? m?? ng?????i M??? c?? th??? l???y l???i b???t c??? khi n??o h??? ch???n.

Trung Qu???c c?? m???t v??? tr?? ?????c bi???t trong tr?? t?????ng t?????ng c???a c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch Washington, m?? ??i???u n??y tr??n th???c t??? ??em l???i cho B???c Kinh quy???n l???c. K??? t??? th???i Nixon, ng?????i M??? ???? tin r???ng vi???c ????a Trung Qu???c v??o h??? th???ng qu???c t??? ??? tr???t t??? th??? gi???i t??? do ??? l?? m???t trong s??? c??c m???c ti??u quan tr???ng nh???t c???a h???. Qua th???i gian, h??? c??ng d???n tin r???ng M??? c?? l???i ??ch trong vi???c duy tr?? s??? c???m quy???n c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c.

Nh???n th???c ???? ??ang thay ?????i nhanh ch??ng. Hi???n nay, h???u nh?? kh??ng c??n ai tin v??o c??i m?? nh?? b??o James Mann t???i Washington ???? ?????t t??n l?? ???C??u chuy???n t?????ng t?????ng Trung Qu???c???, m???t c??i t??n ph?? h???p. Gi??? ????y, B???c Kinh ???? g??y th???t v???ng cho nh???ng ng?????i t???ng ch???p nh???n ?? ni???m ??? v?? nh???ng ng?????i ???? ?????t ch??nh s??ch c???a M??? d???a tr??n ?? ni???m ???? ??? r???ng s??? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? li??n t???c cu???i c??ng s??? d???n t???i m???t Trung Qu???c ????ng vai tr?? l?? m???t ???c??? ????ng c?? tr??ch nhi???m???, m???t kh??i ni???m n???i ti???ng ???????c Robert Zoellick ?????t ra n??m 2005.

Ch??nh trong b???i c???nh n??y, Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia c???a Trump ??em l???i m???t m???i ??e d???a ?????i v???i m???t Trung Qu???c ng??y c??ng x??o ?????ng v?? b???t ???n. T???ng th???ng M??? nh??n nh???n th??? gi???i ??ang ??? trong tr???ng th??i ???c???nh tranh kh??ng ng???ng???, thay v?? h???p t??c. C??ch ti???p c???n c???a Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia l?? tin x???u ?????i v???i m???t Trung Qu???c v???n ph??? thu???c v??o m???t n?????c M??? ti???p t???c duy tr?? c??c ch??nh s??ch h??o ph??ng t??? nhi???u th???p k??? tr?????c.

Khi ng??y c??ng nhi???u ng?????i t???i Washington nh???n ra ??i???u ????, Trung Qu???c s??? ????nh m???t s??? ???ng h??? then ch???t c???a M???. Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia vi???t: ???M???t cu???c c???nh tranh ?????a ch??nh tr??? gi???a c??c t???m nh??n t??? do v?? ????n ??p v??? tr???t t??? th??? gi???i ??ang di???n ra t???i khu v???c ???n ????? D????ng-Th??i B??nh D????ng???.

Khi quan ??i???m v??? Trung Qu???c thay ?????i, nh???ng nh???n th???c c???a ng?????i M??? v??? ch??nh ?????t n?????c h??? c??ng s??? thay ?????i. Waldron nh???n ?????nh: ???S??? suy tho??i v?? sa s??t c???a M??? l?? m???t ch??? ????? th?????ng tr???c, kh??ng ch??? trong gi???i b??o ch?? n?????c ngo??i hay th?? ?????ch, m?? c??n c??? trong gi???i b??o ch?? M???. Bernard Baruch lu??n n??i r???ng ????????ng bao gi??? ????nh gi?? th???p H???p ch??ng qu???c Hoa K??????. Khi t??i nghi??n c???u tri???n v???ng, t??i kh??ng th???y s??? suy tho??i c???a M???. ???? l?? m???t ???o t?????ng lu??n t??i di???n trong gi???i tr?? th???c ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i???.

M???t lu???n ??i???m cu???i: Quan ??i???m th?????ng ???????c ch???p nh???n r???ng Trump ??ang r??t kh???i th??? gi???i l???i m??u thu???n v???i Chi???n l?????c an ninh qu???c gia c???a ??ng. Ngay c??? khi M??? mu???n t??? b??? vai tr?? l??nh ?????o tr??n to??n c???u, ?? ni???m r???ng M??? ??ang ????nh m???t kh??? n??ng g??y ???nh h?????ng ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c l?? sai l???m. Ngh???ch l?? l?? s??? r??t lui c???a M??? c?? th??? s??? t??ng c?????ng ???nh h?????ng ????n b???y c???a n?????c n??y.

M??? ??ang ??? trong th???i k??? h???i ph???c, ??i???u hi???n nhi??n t??? n???n kinh t??? ??ang h???i sinh c???a n?????c n??y. ?????ng th???i B???c Kinh, h??m h??? mu???n c?? ???????c ???nh h?????ng to??n c???u, ??ang v???i v?? l???p ?????y c??i n?????c n??y coi l?? m???t kho???ng tr???ng. Theo Evan Osnos c???a t??? The New Yorker, Thi???u t?????ng Jin Yinan thu???c ?????i h???c Qu???c ph??ng Trung Qu???c ???????c cho l?? ???? n??i r???ng: ???Khi M??? r??t lui tr??n to??n c???u, Trung Qu???c s??? xu???t hi???n???. Nh?? ch??ng ta c?? th??? th???y t??? b??nh lu???n h??n hoan c???a Thi???u t?????ng Jin Yinan, Trung Qu???c ??ang d??n tr???i ngu???n l???c qu?? m???c.

Ng?????i Trung Qu???c ngh?? r???ng h??? c?? th??? ti???n t???i s??n kh???u trung t??m, nh?? T???p C???n B??nh m???nh b???o tuy??n b??? trong b??o c??o d??i 3 ti???ng 23 ph??t c???a ??ng t???i phi??n khai m???c ?????i h???i XIX c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c v??o th??ng 10/2017. S??n kh???u trung t??m ??? T???i m???t th???i ??i???m n??o ????, B???c Kinh s??? kh??ng th??? th???c hi???n ?????y ????? c??c cam k???t v?? do ???? khi???n cho b???n th??n tr??? n??n d??? b??? t???n th????ng. S??? gia Paul Kennedy thu???c ?????i h???c Yale ???? g???i ???? l?? ???S??? d??n tr???i qu?? m???c c???a ????? qu???c???, v?? B???c Kinh hi???n ??ang ??? trong t??nh tr???ng n??y, nh??ng ??? m???c ????? x???u h??n nhi???u.

Gordon G. Chang l?? t??c gi??? cu???n The Coming Collapse of China. B??i vi???t ???????c ????ng tr??n The National Interest.

Ngu???n: Nghi??n c???u Bi???n ????ng
 

???o t?????ng c???i c??ch d?????i th???i T???p C???n B??nh

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xi-jinping

Ngu???n: Ian Johnson, ???Xi???s China: The Illusion of Change???, The New York Review of Books, 29/11/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Ng?? Vi???t Nguy??n | Hi???u ????nh: Ph???m Trang Nhung

Ng?????i ta th?????ng nh???n x??t T???p C???n B??nh l?? l??nh ?????o quy???n l???c nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c trong nhi???u th???p k??? qua, th???m ch?? t??? th???i c???a Mao. ??ng ???????c c??ng nh???n, d?? ????i l??c mi???n c?????ng, r???ng ???? ??eo ??u???i m???t ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao quy???t li???t, c??c c???i c??ch kinh t???, v?? m???t chi???n d???ch tr???n ??p tham nh??ng mang t??nh l???ch s???.

Nh??ng khi T???p k???t th??c n??m th??? ba c???m quy???n v??o th??ng n??y, s??? ????nh gi?? tr??n ng??y c??ng tr??? n??n sai l???m, khi Trung Qu???c v???n b??? c???m ch??n b???i nh???ng ??i???u c???m k??? ???? gi???i h???n nh???ng ng?????i ti???n nhi???m c???a T???p. ??i???m c???t l??i ??? ????y l?? m???t ch??nh quy???n ?????c ?????ng kh??ng mu???n r??t kh???i vai tr?? l??nh ?????o ?????i s???ng kinh t???, ch??nh tr??? v?? x?? h???i. L??nh v???c duy nh???t m?? ch??nh quy???n cho th???y s??? s??ng t???o th???c th??? l?? vi???c t??m ra nh???ng ph????ng th???c m???i ????? h???p th???c h??a s??? cai tr??? c???a h???, th??ng qua c??ch l???ng tr??nh nh???ng v???n ????? m?? ?????t n?????c th???c s??? ?????i m???t.

??i???u n??y c??n ????ng ch?? ?? h??n n???u ch??ng ta t??nh ?????n vi???c T???p hi???n gi??? ??ang ??? ?????nh cao quy???n l???c. ??ng l??n gi??? ch???c T???ng B?? th?? ?????ng C???ng S???n v?? Ch??? t???ch Qu??n ???y Trung ????ng v??o ng??y 15/11/2012, ?????n gi??? th?? kh??ng th??? xem T???p nh?? m???t l??nh ?????o m???i c???n th???i gian ????? th???c hi???n nh???ng ?? t?????ng c???a ??ng n???a. Thay v??o ????, ch??ng ta ph???i nh??n nh???n r???ng ??ng ???? l??n ?????n m???c ?????nh cao v??? t???m ???nh h?????ng. ?????n n???a cu???i n??m sau, khi c??c b?? ph??i tranh ?????u tr?????c th???m ?????i h???i ?????ng l???n th??? 19 v??o n??m 2017, ng?????i k??? nhi???m T???p s??? ???????c l???a ch???n ??? hai ng?????i s??? l??m vi???c v???i nhau trong 5 n??m ti???p theo, nh?? T???p ???? l??m vi???c d?????i quy???n H??? C???m ????o t??? 2007-2012 (Xin n??i th??m ??? ????y l?? v???i logic th???i gian c??? h???u nh?? th??? n??y th?? ch??ng ta ph???i xem l???i tuy??n b??? th?????ng ???????c nh???c ?????n l?? c??c l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c d?????ng nh?? ???????c ho???t ?????ng v???i t???m nh??n (ch??nh tr???) d??i h???n h?????ng t???i t????ng lai, nh??ng th???c ch???t th?? kho???ng th???i gian h??? c?? ???nh h?????ng ch??nh tr??? ch??? t????ng ??????ng v???i ph???n l???n c??c l??nh ?????o ph????ng T??y.)

Nh??ng thay v?? nh???ng ?????i m???i quan tr???ng, m???c ti??u l???n nh???t c???a T???p d?????ng nh?? ch??nh l?? b???o v??? h??? th???ng c???ng nh???c m?? ??ng th???a h?????ng v??o n??m 2012. V??? c?? b???n, ??i???u n??y c?? ngh??a l?? nh?? n?????c qu???n l?? ph???n l???n n???n kinh t??? v?? x?? h???i. Nh?? n?????c chi???m ??u th??? trong c??c ng??nh c??ng nghi???p quan tr???ng nh???t, ?????c bi???t l?? c??ng nghi???p n???ng v?? t??i nguy??n thi??n nhi??n. Nh?? n?????c qu???n l?? ?????i s???ng ch??nh tr??? v?? kh??ng cho ph??p nh???ng quan ??i???m tr??i chi???u quan tr???ng. Nh?? n?????c ch??? ?????o ?????i s???ng x?? h???i. H??? cho ph??p c??c t??? ch???c phi ch??nh ph??? ho???t ?????ng nh??ng ch??? v???i vai tr?? l?? nh?? cung c???p d???ch v???, ch??? kh??ng ph???i nh???ng ng?????i v???n ?????ng thay ?????i x?? h???i. Kh??i ni???m v??? n???n x?? h???i d??n s??? s???ng ?????ng v?? c?? t??nh ph???n bi???n l?? ??i???u kh??ng th??? ch???p nh???n ???????c. Khi xu???t hi???n ?????i m???i c??ng ngh???, v?? d??? nh?? l?? m???ng x?? h???i, c??c khu v???c t??? do c?? th??? xu???t hi???n, nh??ng nh?? n?????c s??? l??m t???t c??? trong quy???n h???n c???a m??nh ????? ????ng ch??ng l???i.

http://nghiencuuquocte.net/2015/09/09/sieu-quyen-luc-cua-tap-can-binh/

T??? khi ???????c b??? nhi???m v??o v??? tr?? quan tr???ng ?????u ti??n n??m 1982, T???p ???? l??m vi???c nh?? m???t ng?????i t??? ch???c v???i am hi???u ch??nh tr??? s??u r???ng. M???c ti??u c???a ??ng l?? t??i t???o th???i k??? ?????u c???a ch??nh quy???n C???ng s???n v??o nh???ng n??m ?????u v?? gi???a th???p ni??n 1950 khi m?? cha ??ng l?? m???t ph???n c???a gi???i l??nh ?????o t???i cao. V??o l??c ????, theo nh???ng g?? ???????c l??u h??nh ch??nh th???c, ?????ng trong s???ch v?? quan ch???c li??m khi???t, v?? ng?????i d??n h??i l??ng (v???i ch??? ?????). Quay l???i qu?? kh??? t?????ng t?????ng n??y c?? ngh??a l?? t??ng c?????ng ch??? kh??ng ph???i l??m suy y???u s??? qu???n l?? c???a nh?? n?????c.

N???u ch??ng ta nh??n nh???n t???ng th??? nh???ng h??nh ?????ng c???a T???p trong 3 n??m v???a qua, ch??ng ta c?? th??? xem ??i???u n??y l?? m???c ti??u ch??nh c???a c??c c???i c??ch. ??i???u r?? r??ng nh???t v?? c?? th??? xem l?? ????ng th???t v???ng nh???t v???i nh???ng ng?????i l???c quan l?? n???n kinh t???. M???t n??m sau khi T???p l??n n???m quy???n, ??ng ???? tuy??n b??? m???t k??? ho???ch c???i c??ch kinh t??? ???????c m???t s??? ng?????i xem l?? nhi???u tham v???ng nh???t k??? t??? khi ?????ng Ti???u B??nh c??ng b??? m??? c???a n???n kinh t??? v??o cu???i th???p ni??n 1970.

Nh??ng sau ba n??m, ph???n l???n nh???ng thay ?????i c???a T???p, nh?? l?? d???n d???n t??? do h??a l??i su???t ng??n h??ng hay l?? m??? c???a th??? tr?????ng ch???ng kho??n r???ng h??n m???t ch??t cho c??c nh?? ?????u t?? n?????c ngo??i, c?? l??? n??n ???????c coi nh?? l?? nh???ng ch???p v?? v??? m???t k??? tr???. ????ng th???t l?? nhi???u s???a ?????i nh??? c?? th??? ??em ?????n m???t s??? thay ?????i l???n, nh??ng ch??? khi nh???ng thay ?????i ???? thu???c v??? m???t k??? ho???ch r???ng h??n v???i m???c ti??u r?? r??ng. V???n ch??a c?? d???u hi???u cho th???y s??? t???n t???i c???a m???t k??? ho???ch nh?? th???, ??t nh???t l?? m???t k??? ho???ch c?? th??? d???n ?????n m???t n???n kinh t??? m??? c???a h??n.

T???p ?????i h?????ng l?? ??i???u c?? th??? x???y ra, c?? l??? t???c ????? t??ng tr?????ng ch???m s??? bu???c ??ng ph???i l??m v???y, nh??ng c??c d???u hi???u hi???n nay kh??ng cho th???y nhi???u tri???n v???ng l???m. M???t ph??ng s??? th???c t??? ????ng ch?? ?? g???n ????y c???a Wall Street Journal cho th???y r???ng m???c d?? T???p gi???n d??? v?? n???n kinh t??? gi???m t???c, t??? l??? t??ng tr?????ng ch???m l???i l??m ??ng c???n th???n h??n v?? th???m ch?? ??t s???n s??ng h??n trong vi???c th??c ?????y c???i c??ch.

V??? ch??nh s??ch x?? h???i, nh???ng thay ?????i th???c s??? c??ng ch??? l?? ???o gi??c. Thay ?????i t??? ch??nh s??ch m???t con ?????n hai con ???? tr??? th??nh ?????u ????? cho nhi???u t??? b??o, nh??ng ??i???u n??y kh??ng c?? ?? ngh??a v???i ph???n l???n ng?????i Trung Qu???c. Tr?????c ????, nhi???u ng?????i ???? c?? th??? c?? hai con (v?? h??? l??ch lu???t, s???ng ??? khu v???c n??ng th??n ho???c l?? ng?????i d??n t???c thi???u s???) nh??ng l???i c??ng nhi???u ng?????i th???y r???ng c?? hai con qu?? t???n k??m. ??i???u h???u ??ch h??n l?? vi???c nghe nh???ng l???i c??c quan ch???c ???? n??i. Khi ch??nh s??ch m???t con ???????c ??p d???ng, ng?????i ta d??? ?????nh duy tr?? ch??nh s??ch n??y trong 30 n??m v?? gi??? kho???ng th???i gian ???? ???? h???t. Khi n??i v??? nh???ng th??ch th???c v??? m???t d??n s??? m?? ?????t n?????c ph???i ?????i m???t, n???i l???ng ch??nh s??ch m???t ch??t ch??? l?? m???t s???a ch???a nh???, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t cu???c c??ch m???ng.

Trong c??c l??nh v???c kh??c, nh?? l?? ph??p quy???n, hay ????ng k?? c??c t??? ch???c phi ch??nh ph???, ch??nh s??ch c??ng gi???ng nh?? c???i c??ch kinh t???: nh???ng s???a ?????i nh??? t??ng c?????ng hi???u qu??? c???a c??c h??? th???ng hi???n t???i v?? thu h??t s??? ch?? ?? c???a b??o ????i nh??ng kh??ng th??ch th???c s??? qu???n l?? c???a nh?? n?????c.

C??n vi???c T???p tr???n ??p tham nh??ng? ??? m???t m???c ????? n??o ???? th?? nh???ng thay ?????i r???t hi???n h???u. Nhi???u ng?????i, v?? nhi???u nh??n v???t c???p cao, b??? b???t h??n bao gi??? h???t. M???i ng?????i c?? th??? th???y (???nh h?????ng c???a) ??i???u n??y th???m ch?? v???i nh???ng quan ch???c c???p th???p ??? xa B???c Kinh, h??? tr??? n??n c???nh gi??c khi ??i d??? nh???ng b???a ti???c th???nh so???n hay l??i nh???ng chi???c xe m?? ????ng l??? h??? kh??ng c?? kh??? n??ng mua ???????c. V?? d???, m???t quan ch???c ??? t???nh S??n T??y m?? t??i bi???t ???? ng???ng ??i ??n ngo??i v??o ng??y trong tu???n v?? ??ng s??? b??? bu???c t???i s???ng phung ph??. G???n ????y, con g??i ??ng k???t h??n v?? ??ng kh??ng kh??ng bu???c c?? ch??? l??m m???t ti???c nh??? v???i v??i ch???c kh??ch, ch??? kh??ng ph???i h??ng tr??m ng?????i do ??ng m???i nh?? v??i n??m tr?????c.

Nh??ng ch??nh th???c t??? r???ng ??i???u n??y ???????c th???c hi???n b???i m???t ???chi???n d???ch???, ch??? kh??ng ph???i th??ng qua c???i c??ch lu???t ph??p ho???c vi???c t???o d???ng c??c b??? m??y ki???m so??t ch??nh ph??? ?????c l???p, cho th???y gi???i h???n c???a n??. ????? ch????ng tr??nh ch???ng tham nh??ng c???a T???p d???n ?????n m???t x?? h???i trong s???ch h??n c???n nh???ng c???i c??ch ????? t???o n??n m???t h??? th???ng t??a ??n ?????c l???p. M???t s??? c???i c??ch ???? ???????c nh???c ?????n, nh??ng ch??ng ch??? y???u ch??? nh???m gi??p h??? th???ng hi???n t???i hi???u qu??? h??n ????i ch??t. S??? qu???n l?? c???a ?????ng ?????i v???i h??? th???ng lu???t ph??p v???n c??n nguy??n. ??i???u n??y l??m c??c nh?? ??i???u tra, c??ng t??? vi??n, v?? quan t??a kh??ng th??? ????nh tham nh??ng m???t c??ch b???n v???ng. (V?? n???u kh??ng c?? m???t n???n b??o ch?? t??? do d?? ch??? l?? m???t ph???n, th?? tham nh??ng th?????ng kh??ng ???????c ????a ra ??nh s??ng.)

Ng?????c lai, ch??nh ph??? ???? r???t th??ng th???o trong vi???c t??m nh???ng ngu???n m???i cho quy???n l???c s??u r???ng c???a h???. M???t c??ch l?? x??y d???ng ???ng h??? th??ng qua ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c v?? c??c cu???c phi??u l??u ?????i ngo???i, nh?? vi???c x??y d???ng c??c ?????o nh??n t???o ??? Bi???n ????ng. M???t c??ch ??t r?? r??ng h??n nh??ng c?? th??? hi???u qu??? h??n l?? vi???c b??y t??? s??? ?????ng c???m v???i nh???ng b???t m??n x?? h???i ph??? bi???n v??? s??? v?? ?????o ?????c, v?? ???ng h??? nh???ng gi?? tr??? truy???n th???ng. H??? ???? c??? g???ng ?????t ???????c ??i???u n??y th??ng qua vi???c pha tr???n nh???ng gi?? tr??? t???t ?????p truy???n th???ng v?? c???ng s???n ????? t???o n??n m???t h??nh m???u m???i v??? c??ng ch???c ngay th???ng v?? c??ng d??n ?????o ?????c. M?? h??nh n??y ????? cao nh???ng ?????c t??nh truy???n th???ng nh?? hi???u th???o v???i cha m???, ti???t ki???m, v?? t??? thi???n, v?? g???i ?? r???ng ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n c??ng coi tr???ng nh???ng gi?? tr??? n??y. V?? d???, trong m???t chi???n d???ch c??? ?????ng b???ng ngh??? thu???t truy???n th???ng, c??c s???n ph???m th??? c??ng truy???n th???ng, nh?? t?????ng ?????t, tranh gi???y c???t, v?? tranh phong c???nh, ???????c k???t h???p v???i nh???ng kh???u hi???u nh?? l?? c??u ???Gi???c m???ng Trung Hoa??? ??i???n h??nh c???a T???p.

??i???u n??y c??ng r?? r??ng ngay ??? nh???ng t???ng th???p nh???t c???a ?????i s???ng v??n h??a. Gi?? M??, m???t ng?????i b???n c???a t??i ??? B???c Kinh, l?? m???t ng?????i th??? m???c v??? h??u th?????ng ki???m ti???n u???ng bia b???ng c??ch h??t nh???ng b??i h??t x??a. M???t b??i gi???i th??ch v?? sao c??c c???a ?? c???a th??nh ph??? ???????c ?????t t??n nh?? v???y, c??n m???t b??i kh??c k??? v??? l???ch s??? c???a nh???ng s???n ph???m n???i ti???ng c???a th??nh ph??? x??a: gi??y v???i, thu???c b???c, di???u, v???t quay, v?? r?????u ch??ng hai l???n. M???t ng??y n???, ??ng h??t m???t b??i m???i:

Tr??n L?? C??u Ki???u

L?? c?????p Nh???t ?????n

????? c?????p ?????t ta

Nh??ng ??m m??u c???a ch??ng v?? v???ng.

T??i c???m th???y l??? l??ng v?? h???i xem ??ng ???? h???c n?? ??? ????u.

???????y l?? m???t ??i???u nh???c x??a, nh??ng l???i h??t th?? t??? c???c v??n h??a Tuy??n V?? M??n. Ch??ng t??i s??? h??t cho c??ng ch??ng. S??? c?? 5-6 ngh??? s?? bi???u di???n, m???i ng?????i s??? ???????c 300 t???!???

L??c ???? l?? th??ng 6, v?? ch??nh quy???n s??? m???ng k??? ni???m 70 n??m k???t th??c chi???n tranh v??o th??ng 9. Nh??ng ?????n b??y gi???, nhi???u th??ng sau l??? k??? ni???m, Trung Qu???c v???n ???????c bao tr??m b???i nh???ng kh???u hi???u tuy??n truy???n y??u n?????c. T???i sao m?? m???t ph??ng v??n h??a qu???n ph???i vi???t m???t b??i h??t cho m???t v??i ngh??? s?? ???????ng ph??? h??u tr?? bi???u di???n trong khi c?? quan n??y ???? bao ph??? ?????t n?????c b???ng nh???ng h??nh ???nh anh h??ng?

???C??n ai ????? ?? ?????n nh???ng chi???n d???ch tuy??n truy???n ch??nh th???c n???a???? ??ng tr??? l???i. ???V?? th??? ng?????i ta tr??? ch??t ti???n ????? ch??ng t??i h??t m???t v??i b??i ca y??u n?????c t???i c??c nh?? h??t. Khi ch??ng t??i h??t, m???i ng?????i l???ng nghe v?? h??? kh??ng ngh?? r???ng t??i s??? h??t ch??ng???

C??ng ngh?? v??? n??, th?? t??i c??ng th???y c??ch n??y th???t kh??n ngoan. Gi?? M?? v?? ?????ng nghi???p c???a ??ng h??t ??? c??c h???i tr?????ng nh??? ??? ph??? nh?? h??t c???a B???c Kinh, hay l?? t???i c??c s??? ki???n t?? nh??n ??? c??c c??ng ty. ??? nh???ng b???i c???nh ri??ng t?? nh?? th???, m???i ng?????i s???n s??ng l???ng nghe, v?? ??t c?? kh??? n??ng h??? s??? ng??n ti???ng vang c???a nh???ng chi???n d???ch tuy??n truy???n.

Nh??ng t??i c??ng th???y ???nh h?????ng c???a chi???n l?????c n??y v???i Gi?? M??. Trong qu?? kh???, h??t l?? m???t ??am m?? th???t s???, ??ng h??t ??? c??ng vi??n v?? ch??? ????i khi h??t ????? l???y ti???n. B??y gi??? n?? ???? tr??? th??nh m???t vi???c kinh doanh, v???i kh??ch h??ng duy nh???t l?? b??? m??y tuy??n truy???n nh?? n?????c.

Trong m???y tu???n g???n ????y, khi t??i g???p ??ng, ??ng n??i v??? vi???c gi??nh ???????c nh???ng h???p ?????ng l???n c?? gi?? h??ng ch???c ng??n ???? la ????? bi???u di???n m???t s??? b??i do ng?????i c???a ch??nh ph??? vi???t. ??ng ??ang chu???n b??? m???t s??? t??c ph???m cho n??m m???i v??o th??ng hai. R???t ??t b??i mang m??u s???c ch??nh tr??? l??? li???u, nh??ng nh?? ??ng n??i v???i t??i, t???t c??? c??c b??i h??t ?????u nh???m ca ng???i nh?? n?????c.

???T??i ??o??n ????y l?? m???t c??ch ????? duy tr?? s??? ???n ?????nh,??? ??ng n??i, s??? d???ng m???t thu???t ng??? m?? nh?? n?????c hay s??? d???ng, weiwen (???duy ???n???, vi???t t???t c???a weichi wending, hay ???duy tr?? ???n ?????nh???), v?? ng??y c??ng ph??? bi???n v??o th???p ni??n v???a qua. ???Ng?????i ta nghe anh h??t, h??? vui m???ng, anh h??t r???ng nh?? n?????c t???t, nh??ng ch??? y???u l?? nh???m ????? h??? kh??ng ngh?? ?????n nh???ng ??i???u kh??c.
P/v theo Nghi??n c???u Qu??c t???

 

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