???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng r???t cu???c l?? g???

Thứ bảy - 31/08/2019 22:31
Nh??n chung, t???m b???n ????? th??? gi???i c?? th??? ???????c ph??c h???a v?? nh??n nh???n theo ba c??ch. Ng?????i ta c?? th??? ph??n chia th??? gi???i d???a tr??n c??c ranh gi???i ?????a l?? ??? ?????t v?? n?????c, cao nguy??n v?? b??n ?????o, bi???n v?? ?????i d????ng. M???t c??ch nh???n th???c kh??c v??? th??? gi???i l?? th??ng qua c??c ranh gi???i ch??nh tr???, v???i c??c l???c ?????a v?? qu???c gia, ?????o qu???c v?? l??nh h???i, th???m l???c ?????a
???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng r???t cu???c l?? g???

???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng r???t cu???c l?? g???

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Ngu???n: Udayan Das, ???What Is the Indo-Pacific????, The Diplomat, 13/07/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: ????? H????ng Giang | Bi??n t???p: L?? H???ng Hi???p

Gi???ng nh?? m???i khu v???c t?????ng t?????ng kh??c tr??n b???n ????? nh???n th???c, ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng l?? m???t kh??i ni???m g??y tranh c??i v???i nhi???u l???i di???n gi???i ?????i l???p.

Nh??n chung, t???m b???n ????? th??? gi???i c?? th??? ???????c ph??c h???a v?? nh??n nh???n theo ba c??ch. Ng?????i ta c?? th??? ph??n chia th??? gi???i d???a tr??n c??c ranh gi???i ?????a l?? ??? ?????t v?? n?????c, cao nguy??n v?? b??n ?????o, bi???n v?? ?????i d????ng. M???t c??ch nh???n th???c kh??c v??? th??? gi???i l?? th??ng qua c??c ranh gi???i ch??nh tr???, v???i c??c l???c ?????a v?? qu???c gia, ?????o qu???c v?? l??nh h???i, th???m l???c ?????a v?? v??ng ?????c quy???n kinh t???. C??ch th??? ba ????? di???n gi???i t???m b???n ????? l?? qua vi???c d???ng n??n nh???ng kh??ng gian t?????ng t?????ng v?????t l??n tr??n ph???m vi bao h??m c???a c??? hai kh??i ni???m tr??n ??? m???t t???m b???n ????? nh???n th???c v?????t l??n kh??ng gian v???t l??. Nh???ng kh??ng gian t?????ng t?????ng gi???ng nh?? v???y th?????ng kh??ng c?? m???t tr??n b???n ????? ?????a l?? ??? ????n c??? nh?? khu v???c Af-Pak (Afghanistan-Pakistan), v?? kh??ng ph???i l??c n??o c??ng t????ng th??ch v???i c??c chi???u k??ch c???a kh??ng gian ch??nh tr??? hi???n h??nh, nh?? tr?????ng h???p c???a khu v???c Ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng.

Khu v???c ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng, hi???u theo c??ch ????, ch??nh l?? m???t t???m b???n ????? nh???n th???c m???i ???????c nh???c ?????n r???ng r??i trong th???i gian g???n ????y. Gi???ng nh?? m???i kh??ng gian t?????ng t?????ng kh??c, t???n t???i nhi???u tranh c??i xoay quanh nh???ng ?????c t??nh c???a khu v???c n??y c??ng nh?? ai l?? ng?????i ???? t?????ng t?????ng ra n??. X??t v??? kh??ng gian ?????a l?? (geo-spatiality), ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng ???????c hi???u r???ng r??i l?? m???t kh??ng gian k???t n???i gi???a ???n ????? D????ng v?? Th??i B??nh D????ng. Ph???m vi c???a n?? ch??? y???u ???????c coi l?? tr???i d??i t??? b??? bi???n ph??a ????ng c???a ch??u Phi ?????n b??? bi???n ph??a t??y Hoa K???, d?? r???ng ?????nh ngh??a n??y c?? th??? c?? nhi???u bi???n th??? d???a v??o vi???c c??c ch??? th??? ?????nh v??? m??nh n???m ??? ????u trong khu v???c r???ng l???n n??y. X??t v??? vai tr?? ch???c n??ng, s??? k???t n???i v?? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau c???a hai ?????i d????ng ch??nh l?? s???n ph???m c???a nh???ng ?????ng l???c ng??y c??ng m???nh m??? c???a ti???n tr??nh to??n c???u h??a, th????ng m???i c??ng nh?? s??? t????ng quan ?????y bi???n ?????ng gi???a c??c t??c nh??n kh??c nhau, l??m ph?? v??? nh???ng ranh gi???i c?? v?? m??? ra nh???ng h?????ng ??i m???i. M???t trong s??? ???? l?? m???t l???i ti???p c???n mang t??nh h???i nh???p h??n, ???????c t???o ??i???u ki???n b???i s??? giao th????ng qua l???i ng??y m???t gia t??ng gi???a c??c ?????i d????ng. Ch??nh b???i nh???ng l??? ????, v??ng ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng, n??i ch???a nh???ng tuy???n ???????ng bi???n quan tr???ng nh???t th??? gi???i, v???i nh???ng qu???c gia ????ng d??n nh???t c?? nhu c???u n??ng l?????ng kh???ng l??? n???m d???c b??? bi???n, c??ng m???t ph???m vi bao g???m nhi???u h??ng h??a c??ng to??n c???u gi?? tr??? nh???t, c??ng ???????c k??? v???ng s??? tr??? th??nh trung t??m ch??nh tr???, kinh t??? c???a th??? gi???i.

V??? m???t chi???n l?????c, ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng ???????c xem nh?? m???t th???c th??? li??n t???c ???????c k???t n???i v???i nhau qua eo bi???n Malacca, tuy???n th????ng m???i ch??nh n???i li???n hai ?????i d????ng n??y. Hai nguy??n do ch??nh l?? gi???i ti???m n??ng chi???n l?????c c???a v??ng ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng: th??? nh???t l?? d???u ???n c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n kh???p khu v???c n??y; v?? th??? hai, l?? s??? suy y???u t????ng ?????i c???a h??? th???ng li??n minh c???a Hoa K??? v?? n??? l???c c???a Hoa K??? nh???m h???i sinh h??? th???ng ???y.

Nh???ng b?????c ti???n h??ng h???i c???a B???c Kinh ???? b??nh tr?????ng kh???p c??? hai ?????i d????ng trong n??? l???c ?????m b???o nhu c???u n??ng l?????ng c??ng nh?? t??ng c?????ng quan h??? th????ng m???i. S??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c trong khu v???c n??y n???m d?????i nhi???u h??nh th???c. T???i Bi???n ????ng, nh???ng y??u s??ch l??nh th??? c???a n?????c n??y ???? ???????c hi???n th???c h??a v???i nhi???u ?????ng th??i l???n chi???m l??nh th???. V???i nh???ng b?????c ti???n t??o b???o ??? v??ng bi???n Nam ?? c??ng chu???i c?? s??? h??? t???ng c???ng bi???n xuy??n su???t ???n ????? D????ng, Trung Qu???c ??ang d???n kh???ng ?????nh b???n th??n nh?? l?? m???t c?????ng qu???c trong khu v???c. V??? kh??? n??ng k???t n???i v?? c?? s??? h??? t???ng, s??ng ki???n ???V??nh ??ai v?? Con ???????ng??? ???? h?? l??? ph???n n??o k??? ho???ch th??u t??m kh??ng gian ?????a ch??nh tr??? c???a Trung Qu???c. V??? kinh t???, Trung Qu???c l?? m???t ?????i t??c th????ng m???i quan tr???ng ?????i v???i t???t c??? c??c qu???c gia l???n trong khu v???c, v?? c??ng l?? m???t t??c nh??n ch??? ?????ng trong vi???c x??c ti???n c??c quan h??? ?????i t??c kinh t???.

??i ????i v???i s??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c l?? ???nh h?????ng ??ang c?? ph???n s???t gi???m c???a Hoa K???. D?? M??? v???n s??? h???u l???c l?????ng h???i qu??n h??ng m???nh nh???t c??ng v??? th??? c???a m???t n?????c ?????m b???o an ninh trong khu v???c cho c??c ?????ng minh, nh???ng chi???n l?????c c???a n?????c n??y v?? h??nh trung v???n ????? ng??? nhi???u kh??? n??ng cho Trung Qu???c c??ng nh?? g??y t???n h???i ?????n l???i ??ch c???a c??c ?????ng minh. M???c d?? Hoa K??? ???? t??i ghi nh???n t???m quan tr???ng c???a v??ng ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng v???i ?????ng th??i ?????i t??n B??? T?? l???nh Th??i B??nh D????ng Hoa K??? th??nh B??? T?? l???nh ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng, vi???c ????n ph????ng r??t kh???i Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c Xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng (TPP) v?? li??n t???c k??u g???i c??c n?????c ?????ng minh san s??? g??nh n???ng m???t c??ch c??ng b???ng ???? ??t nhi???u ?????y h??? th???ng li??n minh c???a n?????c n??y v??o th??? l???p l???ng. Th??m n???a, M??? c??ng ??ang kh??ng m???y th??nh c??ng trong vi???c g??y ???nh h?????ng t??ch c???c l??n ??c, Nh???t B???n v?? ???n ????? ??? c??c n???n d??n ch??? c??ng ch?? h?????ng trong Nh??m B??? T??? (Quad) ??? nh???m g??y d???ng m???t ??????n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng m??? v?? t??? do??? nh?? tr?????c nay v???n h?? h??o.

L?? m???t tr???ng t??m c???a c??c v???n ????? xoay quanh khu v???c ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng, xung ?????t M??? ??? Trung c??ng d???n ?????n nhi???u vi???n c???nh ?????i ngh???ch trong t???m nh??n c???a c??c ch??? th??? kh??c trong khu v???c. ??c, m???t trong nh???ng n?????c ?????u ti??n th???o lu???n kh??i ni???m ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng trong s??ch tr???ng qu???c ph??ng, ???? ng???m ???ng h??? m???t th??? c??n b???ng gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? Hoa K???. M???c d?? l?? th??nh vi??n c???a h??? th???ng li??n minh Hoa K??? v?? ???ng h??? s??? hi???n di???n quy m?? l???n c???a n?????c n??y trong khu v???c, ??c c??ng ???? nh???n th???c ???????c s??? suy y???u trong ???nh h?????ng c???a M??? t???i ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng. ?????ng th???i, Canberra c??ng kh??ng th??? g???t b??? nh???ng l???i ??ch kinh t??? m?? Trung Qu???c mang l???i c??ng nh?? c?? h???i t??ng c?????ng quan h??? h???u ngh??? v???i nhi???u ?????i t??c quan tr???ng kh??c trong khu v???c nh?? Nh???t B???n, ???n ????? v?? H??n Qu???c ??? m???t n?????c ??i c???p thi???t ?????i v???i t????ng lai chi???n l?????c c???a n?????c n??y. Ph???n ??nh tinh th???n ???h???p l??u gi???a hai ?????i d????ng??? nh?? l???i Th??? t?????ng Nh???t B???n Shinzo Abe, ?? ni???m v??? ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a Nh???t B???n c?? ph???n tr??ng l???p v???i t???m nh??n c???a Hoa K???, nh??ng ch?? tr???ng v??o vi???c th??c ?????y c?? s??? h??? t???ng, v?????t ra ngo??i ????ng ??, h?????ng t???i Trung ????ng v?? Ch??u Phi. T???a l???c ??? trung t??m c???a v??ng ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng, c??c n?????c ASEAN c?? chi???n l?????c th???c d???ng h??n ?????i v???i khu v???c n??y, v???i m???t chi???n l?????c d???a tr??n b???n l??nh v???c: h???p t??c h??ng h???i, kh??? n??ng k???t n???i, ph??t tri???n b???n v???ng v?? kinh t???.

T???m nh??n c???a ???n ????? v??? ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng l?? s??? m??? r???ng nh???ng ?????ng th??i tr?????c ???? c???a n?????c n??y ??? ph??a ????ng th??ng qua ch??nh s??ch ???H?????ng ????ng???, gi??? l?? ch??nh s??ch ???H??nh ?????ng h?????ng ????ng???. M???c d?? M??? ???? n??? l???c th??c ?????y vai tr?? c???a ???n ????? trong khu v???c, chi???n l?????c ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a n?????c n??y cho ?????n nay v???n ??ang thi??n v??? ph????ng ??n h??a ho??n thay v?? t??? ra quy???t ??o??n. New Delhi, v???n ???ng h??? m???t ??????n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng m??? v?? t??? do??? v?? ban ?????u c??ng chung t???m nh??n v???i c??c qu???c gia thu???c nh??m B??? T???, v???n ch??a th??? x??c ?????nh r?? r??ng v??? vi???c li???u chi???n l?????c ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a ???n ????? s??? bao g???m c??? Trung Qu???c hay ch???ng l???i n?????c n??y. D?? chia s??? m???i quan t??m v???i li??n minh Hoa K??? nh???m mang l???i m???t tr???t t??? d???a tr??n c??c lu???t l???, ?????c tr??ng b???i t??? do h??ng h???i v?? gi???i quy???t tranh ch???p th??ng qua ?????i tho???i, nh??ng ???n ????? c??ng ????? c???p r???ng t???m nh??n c???a h??? v??? ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng kh??ng ch??? tr????ng k??m h??m m???t qu???c gia c??? th??? n??o ??? ??m ch??? Trung Qu???c ??? m?? ???????c ?????t song song v???i ch??nh s??ch An ninh v?? Ph??t tri???n cho T???t c??? c??c n?????c trong khu v???c (SAGAR) c???a n?????c n??y.

Gi???ng nh?? m???i khu v???c t?????ng t?????ng kh??c tr??n b???n ????? nh???n th???c, ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng l?? m???t kh??i ni???m g??y tranh c??i v???i nhi???u l???i di???n gi???i ?????i l???p, t???o ??i???u ki???n cho s??? xung ?????t v??? t???m nh??n v?? l?? t?????ng gi???a c??c ?????i th??? chi???n l?????c trong khu v???c. M???t Trung Qu???c ??ang tr???i d???y, m???t Hoa K??? kh??ng ch??n b?????c v?? h??ng lo???t c??c ch??? th??? kh??c t???i m???t ???n ????? D????ng ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng ?????y bi???n ?????ng ??? t???t c??? ?????u s??? l?? c??c t??c nh??n ?????nh h??nh t????ng lai ch??nh tr??? khu v???c, v???i v?? v??n nh???ng kh??? n??ng.

Udayan Das l?? Tr??? l?? Gi??o s?? chuy??n ng??nh Khoa h???c Ch??nh tr??? t???i ?????i h???c St. Xavier, Kolkata, ???n ?????.

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