T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh l?? g???

Thứ bảy - 21/09/2019 00:53
V??o th??ng 10/2017, t???i ?????i h???i to??n qu???c l???n th??? 19, ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c (??CSTQ) ???? ????a v??o ??i???u l??? ?????ng m???t h???c thuy???t ch??nh tr??? m???i: ???T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh v??? Ch??? ngh??a X?? h???i mang ?????c s???c Trung Qu???c trong k??? nguy??n m???i???. Trong b???i c???nh m???t Trung Qu???c hi???n ?????i h??a nhanh ch??ng ??ang l?? m???t nh??n t??? l??nh ?????o to??n c???u,
T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh l?? g???

T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh l?? g???

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Ngu???n: Steve Tsang, ???What is Xin Jinping Thought????, Project Syndicate, 05/02/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: T??ng Gia Phong | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

V??o th??ng 10/2017, t???i ?????i h???i to??n qu???c l???n th??? 19, ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c (??CSTQ) ???? ????a v??o ??i???u l??? ?????ng m???t h???c thuy???t ch??nh tr??? m???i: ???T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh v??? Ch??? ngh??a X?? h???i mang ?????c s???c Trung Qu???c trong k??? nguy??n m???i???. Trong b???i c???nh m???t Trung Qu???c hi???n ?????i h??a nhanh ch??ng ??ang l?? m???t nh??n t??? l??nh ?????o to??n c???u, ng?????i ta d??? b??c b??? h???c thuy???t n??y nh?? l?? m???t s??? tuy??n truy???n mang t??nh ?????ng ???? l???i th???i. Nh??ng l??m v???y s??? mang l???i nh???ng r???i ro nguy hi???m.

N??m th??ng sau khi ??i???u l??? ?????ng ???????c thay ?????i, ?????i h???i ?????i bi???u Nh??n d??n To??n qu???c (Qu???c h???i Trung Qu???c) ???? b??i b??? gi???i h???n nhi???m k??? ch??? t???ch n?????c, ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c tr??? khi c?? m???t bi???n ?????ng ch??nh tr??? l???n, T???p C???n B??nh ??? ng?????i v???n kh???e m???nh, c?????ng tr??ng ??? tu???i 65 ??? c?? th??? duy tr?? ch???c v??? ch??? t???ch n?????c th??m 20 n??m n???a. H???c thuy???t c??ng t??n v???i ??ng v?? th??? s??? ?????nh h??nh s??? ph??t tri???n v?? c??ch Trung Qu???c tham gia v??o to??n c???u trong nhi???u th???p ni??n t???i, v?? c?? l??? l?? xa h??n n???a.

Theo m???t ngh??a n??o ????, vi???c ????a t??n v?? t?? t?????ng c???a T???p C???n B??nh v??o ??i???u l??? ??CSTQ mang ?????n cho ??ng ?????a v??? ngang h??ng v???i Mao Tr???ch ????ng ??? ng?????i cha l???p qu???c c???a n?????c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa, c??ng nh?? ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ??? ki???n tr??c s?? c???a ti???n tr??nh hi???n ?????i h??a Trung Qu???c. ????y c??ng l?? hai nh?? l??nh ?????o duy nh???t ???????c ????? c???p ?????n trong ??i???u l??? ?????ng. ??i???u ????, c??ng v???i s??? b??i b??? gi???i h???n nhi???m k???, khi???n nhi???u ng?????i l???p lu???n r???ng T???p C???n B??nh l?? nh?? l??nh ?????o Trung Qu???c quy???n l???c nh???t k??? t??? th???i Mao.

Nh??ng, cho d?? c?? th???t nh?? v???y ??i n???a, ??i???u n??y c??ng kh??ng c?? ngh??a l?? T???p ??ang c??? g???ng kh??i ph???c l???i ch??? ????? to??n tr??? ki???u Mao. M???c d?? T???p c?? m???t c??ch nh??n t??ch c???c h??n nhi???u v??? qu?? kh??? c???a Trung Qu???c d?????i th???i Mao so v???i b???t k??? nh?? l??nh ?????o n??o kh??c k??? t??? sau ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, nh??ng ??ng ta kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a Mao.

Thay v??o ????, c??ch ti???p c???n v??? ph????ng th???c qu???n tr??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh g???n gi???ng v???i L??u Thi???u K??? ??? Ch??? t???ch n?????c ?????u ti??n c???a Trung Qu???c d?????i th???i Mao, ng?????i h???t l??ng v???i Ch??? ngh??a L??-nin v?? ???? t??ch h???p m???t s??? t?? t?????ng Kh???ng Gi??o m???t c??ch ch???n l???c ????? x??y d???ng m???t nh?? n?????c ?????c ?????ng theo ki???u Trung Qu???c. V???i L??u, ?????ng l?? then ch???t; ng?????c l???i, v???i Mao, sau c??ng th?? ?????ng c?? th??? kh??ng ph???i l?? kh??ng th??? thi???u ???????c, nh?? ???? ???????c ch???ng minh trong cu???c C??ch m???ng V??n H??a ??? cu???c c??ch m???ng m?? trong ???? b???n th??n L??u Thi???u K??? c??ng l?? n???n nh??n. Kh??ng gi???ng Mao Tr???ch ????ng, ng?????i y??u th??ch s??? h???n lo???n, T???p C???n B??nh c?? c??ng kh??t v???ng v???i L??u Thi???u K??? v??? th???c thi s??? ki???m so??t th??ng qua ??CSTQ, b??? m??y m?? ??ng ta k??? v???ng s??? l??nh ?????o ??? v?? ???ng d???ng T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh v??o trong t???t c??? c??c l??nh v???c: ch??nh tr???, qu??n s???, d??n s??? v?? h???c thu???t.

S??? t????ng ph???n v???i ?????ng Ti???u B??nh th???m ch?? c??n s??u s???c h??n. C??ng cu???c c???i c??ch c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???????c ?????nh h??nh b???i ch??? ngh??a th???c d???ng v?? s??? th??? nghi???m nh???m x??c ?????nh l???i ti???p c???n hi???u qu??? nh???t ?????i v???i hi???n ?????i h??a. Trong th???p ni??n 1980, th???m ch?? t???ng c?? th???i gian ng???n ?????ng Ti???u B??nh c??n nh???c ?????n kh??? n??ng t??ch ??CSTQ ra kh???i Nh?? n?????c, tuy nhi??n ??ng ???? t??? b??? ?? ngh?? tr??n sau c??c cu???c bi???u t??nh ????i d??n ch??? t???i Qu???ng tr?????ng Thi??n An M??n v??o n??m 1989.

D?? sao th?? ?????ng Ti???u B??nh v?? nh???ng ng?????i k??? nhi???m ??? Giang Tr???ch D??n v?? H??? C???m ????o ??? ???? ti???p t???c m??? c???a Trung Qu???c v???i ph????ng T??y, ?????ng th???i s???n l??ng ch???p nh???n s??? truy???n b?? trong gi???i h???n c???a m???t v??i t?? t?????ng t??? do. ????y kh??ng ph???i l?? ??i???u T???p C???n B??nh ???ng h???, khi nh???ng cam k???t li??n t???c v??? c???i c??ch tri???t ????? b??? ph??? m??? b???i s??? t??i ?????nh ngh??a v??? nh???ng g?? m?? c???i c??ch n??n mang l???i.

T???p C???n B??nh xem c??c th??? nghi???m ch??nh tr??? ho???c gi?? tr??? t??? do kh??ng ph?? h???p v???i Trung Qu???c, ?????ng th???i ch???i b??? d??n ch??? h??a, x?? h???i d??n s???, v?? nh??n quy???n ph??? qu??t. C???i c??ch tri???t ????? ?????ng ngh??a v???i c???ng c??? ki???m so??t ??CSTQ, th??ng qua ???chi???n d???ch ch???ng tham nh??ng???, c??ng nh?? ki???m so??t qu???n ch??ng, bao g???m vi???c s??? d???ng c??c c??ng ngh??? ti??n ti???n ???????c h??? tr??? b???i tr?? tu??? nh??n t???o. T???p C???n B??nh hy v???ng r???ng n???n chuy??n ch??? k??? thu???t s??? n??y s??? ng??n c??c t?? t?????ng t??? do v?? d??n ch??? kh??ng ???????c b??n r??? v?? truy???n b??, ngay c??? khi Trung Qu???c duy tr?? s??? k???t n???i v???i ph???n c??n l???i c???a th??? gi???i. C??ng d??n Trung Qu???c c?? th??? h?????ng t??? do trong ti??u d??ng v?? ?????u t??, nh??ng kh??ng ph???i trong m???t x?? h???i d??n s??? ho???c tham d??? v??o c??c cu???c th???o lu???n c??ng d??n.

??i???u h??a m??u thu???n gi???a vi???c m??? c???a v???i qu???c t??? v?? ki???m so??t nh?? n?????c l?? ??i???u t???i quan tr???ng v???i T???p C???n B??nh n???u mu???n ?????t ???????c m???t m???c ti??u ch??nh trong h???c thuy???t c???a ??ng: ???l??m cho Trung Qu???c v?? ?????i tr??? l???i???. M???t m???t, ??i???u n??y ????i h???i ph???i kh??i g???i ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c d?????i s??? l??nh ?????o c???a ?????ng, ????? qu???n ch??ng ??i theo s??? ??u vi???t c???a ??CSTQ v?? b???n th??n T???p C???n B??nh. Nh???ng ai kh??ng ????p ???ng ???????c s??? k??? v???ng n??y s??? c?? th??? b??? gi??m s??t v?? th???m ch?? b??? g???i ?????n c??c tr???i c???i t???o, gi???ng nh?? t???i T??n C????ng, n??i h??ng tr??m ng??n (ho???c nhi???u h??n) ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? theo H???i gi??o ??ang b??? giam gi???.

M???t kh??c, l??m cho Trung Qu???c v?? ?????i tr??? l???i ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c th??? hi???n quy???n l???c v?? vai tr?? l??nh ?????o tr??n v?? ????i th??? gi???i. Sau nhi???u th???p ni??n tu??n theo ch??? th??? ???thao quang d?????ng h???i??? c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, T???p C???n B??nh tin r???ng th???i c?? c???a Trung Qu???c ???? ?????n.

M???t c??ch ????? T???p hy v???ng t??ng c?????ng v??? th??? to??n c???u c???a Trung Qu???c l?? b???ng c??ch ?????m b???o r???ng ?????t n?????c s??? lu??n ti??n phong trong l??nh v???c c??ng ngh???. V?? l?? do ????, ch??nh ph??? h??? tr??? h???t m??nh cho c??c c??ng ty h??ng ?????u qu???c gia trong c??c l??nh v???c ti??n ti???n, nh?? ???????c quy ?????nh trong Chi???n l?????c ???Made in China 2025??? ??? ??i???u m?? c??c ?????i th??? c???nh tranh, ?????c bi???t l?? Hoa K???, cho l?? kh??ng c??ng b???ng. Kh??ng ph???i ng???u nhi??n m?? Hoa K??? ??ang nh???m ?????n Huawei ??? t???p ??o??n ???? nh???n ???????c nhi???u s??? h??? tr??? t??? ch??nh ph??? h??n b???t k??? doanh nghi???p n??o kh??c t???i b???t k??? qu???c gia n??o kh??c trong th???i hi???n ?????i.

Vi???c Canada quy???t ?????nh tu??n theo y??u c???u c???a Hoa K??? trong vi???c b???t gi??? b?? M???nh V??n Ch??u ??? Gi??m ?????c T??i ch??nh Huawei ??? v?? c??o bu???c gian l???n v?? vi ph???m nhi???u l???n l???nh tr???ng ph???t c???a Hoa K??? ?????i v???i Iran, trong m???t T???p C???n B??nh l?? kh??ng t??n tr???ng v??? th??? v?? l???i ??ch c???a Trung Qu???c, v?? do ???? ????ng ph???i ????p tr??? t????ng x???ng. Trung Qu???c nhanh ch??ng giam gi??? hai c??ng d??n Canada v???i c??o bu???c ???tham gia v??o c??c ho???t ?????ng g??y nguy h???i an ninh qu???c gia Trung Qu???c???, v?? k???t ??n t??? h??nh m???t c??ng d??n Canada v?? bu??n l???u ma t??y.

M???c ti??u c???a T?? t?????ng T???p C???n B??nh kh??ng ph???i l?? nh???m kh???i ?????ng m???t cu???c chi???n tranh l???nh v???i ph????ng T??y, ho???c nh???m xu???t kh???u m?? h??nh ch??nh tr??? Trung Qu???c. M?? h??n h???t, T???p C???n B??nh mu???n gia t??ng uy quy???n c???a nh?? n?????c ?????c ?????ng n??y ??? c??ng v???i m?? h??nh ch??? ngh??a chuy??n ch??? c???a ri??ng ??ng ta ??? t???i Trung Qu???c, bao g???m c??? vi???c ?????m b???o r???ng ng?????i d??n Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng ???????c ti???p x??c v???i c??c t?? t?????ng d??n ch??? ??? t??? do. Hi???u ???????c ??i???u n??y l?? r???t quan tr???ng n???u th??? gi???i mu???n can d??? hi???u qu??? v???i m???t Trung Qu???c ??ang tr???i d???y gh?? g???m.

Steve Tsang l?? Gi??m ?????c Vi???n nghi??n c???u Trung Qu???c t???i Tr?????ng nghi??n c???u Ph????ng ????ng v?? Ch??u Phi, ?????i h???c London.
 

Vi???t Nam trong cu???c ch??i quy???n l???c M??? ??? Trung

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T??c gi???: L?? H???ng Hi???p | Bi??n d???ch: Tr??m Anh

Li???u Vi???t Nam c?? th??? vun ?????p m???i quan h??? g???n g??i h??n v???i M??? m?? kh??ng gi???m l??n ch??n Trung Qu???c?

?????u n??m 1833, m???t ph??i ??o??n M??? do Edmund Roberts d???n ?????u ???? t???i Vi???t Nam tr??n chi???c chi???n h???m nh??? USS Peacock neo ?????u t???i v???nh V??ng L???m, ngo??i kh??i t???nh Ph?? Y??n ng??y nay. V???i t?? c??ch l?? m???t ???ph??i vi??n ?????c bi???t??? c???a T???ng th???ng Andrew Jackson, Roberts ???? ????? xu???t k?? k???t m???t hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i v???i nh?? Nguy???n nh??ng s??? m???nh kh??ng ho??n th??nh do nh???ng hi???u l???m t??? r??o c???n ng??n ng??? v?? ch??nh s??ch b??? quan t???a c???ng l??c b???y gi??? c???a Vi???t Nam g??y ra.

Hai n?????c ???? ph???i m???t 166 n??m sau m???i c?? th??? ??i ?????n m???t hi???p ?????nh th????ng m???i song ph????ng. Nhi???m v??? dang d??? c???a Roberts l?? m???t trong nhi???u c?? h???i b??? b??? l???, m?? ngay t??? ng??y ?????u hai b??n b???t ?????u c?? nh???ng s??? ti???p x??c, ???? ng??n c???n Vi???t Nam v?? M??? t???o d???ng m???t m???i quan h??? v???ng ch???c h??n.

Th??? k??? 20, vi???c c??c t????ng t??c kinh t??? ngh??o n??n c??ng nh???ng ??i???u ki???n b???t l???i trong th???i k??? Chi???n tranh l???nh ???? c??ng ?????y hai n?????c r???i xa nhau. Vi???t Nam ???? kh??ng may m???n khi ??? gi???a m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u chi???n l?????c cam go gi???a hai kh???i ????ng ??? T??y khi Chi???n tranh l???nh di???n ra m???nh m??? h??n v??o nh???ng n??m 1950. Khi c??c chi???n s?? C???ng s???n Vi???t Nam ????nh b???i qu??n Ph??p v?? ti???n t???i th???ng nh???t c??? n?????c v??o n??m 1954, h??? ???? v???p ph???i m???t ch??nh s??ch ki???m ch??? ch???ng c???ng s???n c???a ph????ng T??y m?? M??? l?? ng?????i ?????ng ?????u. Trong khi ????, kh???i C???ng s???n ti???p nh???n Vi???t Nam nh?? m???t ???ti???n ?????n ch???ng ch??? ngh??a ????? qu???c??? ??? ????ng Nam ??. Cu???i c??ng, Vi???t Nam v?? M??? ???? r??i v??o m???t cu???c chi???n kh???c li???t ????? l???i nh???ng d???u ???n kh??ng th??? x??a nh??a trong l???ch s??? hai n?????c.

K???t th??c chi???n tranh, hai n?????c ph???i m???t th??m hai th???p ni??n n???a ????? h??n g???n v?? b??nh th?????ng h??a quan h???, ??i???u m?? ch??? ?????t ???????c v??o n??m 1995. K??? t??? khi ????, m???i quan h??? ???? ph??t tri???n v???i t???c ????? khi???n nhi???u nh?? quan s??t b???t ng???. M??? hi???n ??ang l?? th??? tr?????ng xu???t kh???u l???n nh???t v?? nh?? ?????u t?? n?????c ngo??i l???n th??? 10 c???a Vi???t Nam. Quan h??? ch??nh tr??? c??ng v????n t???i t???m cao m?? c???i hai b??n ?????u mong mu???n n??ng l??n t???m quan h??? ?????i t??c chi???n l?????c. Trong khi ????, quan h??? qu??n s??? d?? c??n khi??m t???n nh??ng c??ng ??ang ???????c th???t ch???t. Chuy???n th??m l???ch s??? c???a B??? tr?????ng Qu???c ph??ng M??? Leon Panetta t???i v???nh Cam Ranh h??m 3/6/2012 ch???ng minh cho m???i quan h??? ??ang ng??y m???t n???ng ???m gi???a hai n?????c.

Tuy nhi??n, n???u nh??n v??o b???i c???nh l???ch s???, v???i b???t c??? ai quan t??m ?????n m???i quan h??? Vi???t ??? M??? c??ng n??n xem x??t hai c??u h???i quan tr???ng. Tr?????c h???t, do v???nh Cam Ranh c??ch kh??ng xa v???nh V??ng L???m, chuy???n th??m c???a Panetta g???i l???i s??? m???nh c???a Roberts n??m 1833. Li???u Vi???t Nam s??? ch???p l???y c??  h???i t??? s??? t??i quan t??m c???a M??? ?????n m??nh ????? ?????m b???o m???t m???i quan h??? v???ng ch???c h??n v???i si??u c?????ng s??? m???t th??? gi???i, hay s??? l???i ????? n?? tr??i qua, nh?? nh???ng g?? tri???u ????nh Hu??? ???? l??m v??o n??m 1833?

Th??? hai, trong b???i c???nh c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c ??ang gia t??ng gi???a M??? v?? Trung Qu???c, m???t m???i quan h??? Vi???t-M??? m???nh m??? h??n s??? kh?? tr??nh kh???i g??y t???n h???i ?????n quan h??? c???a Vi???t Nam v???i Trung Qu???c. V???y Vi???t Nam s??? r??i v??o cu???c Chi???n tranh l???nh 2.0 v?? l???i tr??? th??nh n???n nh??n c???a m???t cu???c ch??i quy???n l???c m???i?

Kh??ng gi???ng nh?? th???i nh?? Nguy???n, Vi???t Nam ng??y nay ???? l?? m???t qu???c gia m??? c???a h??n nhi???u. C???i c??ch kinh t??? t??? nh???ng n??m 1980 ????a ?????t n?????c h???i nh???p v??o n???n kinh t??? to??n c???u. V??? m???t n??y, Vi???t Nam coi M??? l?? m???t trong nh???ng ?????i t??c kinh t??? quan tr???ng h??ng ?????u. ?????u t?? t??? c??c t???p ??o??n c??ng ngh??? cao c???a M??? nh?? Intel ???? m??? ???????ng cho c??c nh?? ?????u t?? n?????c ngo??i mu???n gi??p Vi???t Nam v????n l??n t???m cao m???i trong chu???i gi?? tr??? v?? t???o d???ng m???t n???n kinh t??? s??ng t???o, hi???u qu???. Do v???y, Vi???t Nam mu???n th??c ?????y quan h??? kinh t??? v???i M???. Quy???t ?????nh tham gia ????m ph??n v??? Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng l?? m???t minh ch???ng cho ??i???u ????.

Tuy nhi??n, vi???c Vi???t Nam t??ch c???c c???i thi???n quan h??? v???i M??? l?? m???t chuy???n, nh??ng m???i quan h??? ???? s??? ti???n tri???n bao xa v???n l?? ??i???u ch??a ai r??. Tr?????c h???t, nh???ng kh??c bi???t trong h??? th???ng ch??nh tr??? gi???a hai n?????c lu??n khi???n Vi???t Nam ph???i th???n tr???ng. ?????ng C???ng s???n Vi???t Nam (??CSVN) v???n coi chi???n l?????c ???di???n bi???n h??a b??nh??? l?? m???i ??e d???a l???n ?????i v???i s??? an nguy c???a ch??? ?????. M???t b??? ph???n trong gi???i l??nh ?????o ??CSVN tin r???ng chi???n l?????c ???? ??ang ???????c c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y, ?????c bi???t l?? M???, s??? d???ng ????? t???ng b?????c c???n tr??? v?? l??m thay ?????i ?????ng. Nh???ng lo ng???i ???? c??ng s??u s???c h??n b???i nh???ng ch??? tr??ch th?????ng xuy??n c???a h??? v??? v???n ????? nh??n quy???n t???i Vi???t Nam. Nhi???u ch??nh tr??? gia M??? th???m ch?? c??n n??u c???i thi???n t??nh h??nh nh??n quy???n l?? ??i???u ki???n ti??n quy???t ????? th??c ?????y xa h??n m???i quan h??? song ph????ng.

Trong khi ????, Vi???t Nam c??ng th???n tr???ng ????? kh??ng ????? nh???ng di???n tri???n trong quan h??? Vi???t ??? M??? ???nh h?????ng ?????n s??? g???n k???t v???i Trung Qu???c. Ch??nh l???ch s???c m???nh, v??? tr?? ?????a l?? g???n g??i, v?? s??? ph??? thu???c kinh t??? l???n nhau ng??y c??ng t??ng gi???a Vi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c, c??ng nh?? s??? t????ng ?????ng ?? th???c h??? gi???a hai ?????ng C???ng s???n ?????u c?? xu h?????ng khi???n cho c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch Vi???t Nam ph???i c??n nh???c k??? l?????ng tr?????c khi c?? b???t k??? ?????ng th??i n??o c?? th??? g??y kh?? kh??n cho m???i quan h??? c???a Vi???t Nam v???i ng?????i l??ng gi???ng ph????ng b???c.

Ngo??i ra, m???t m???i quan h??? x???u ??i v???i Trung Qu???c c??ng kh??ng tr??nh kh???i g??y b???t ???n cho m??i tr?????ng b??n ngo??i v?? ph??t tri???n kinh t??? trong n?????c c???a Vi???t Nam. Do t??ng tr?????ng kinh t??? tr??? th??nh ngu???n l???c quan tr???ng nh???t ?????m b???o ???n ?????nh ?????t n?????c, Vi???t Nam kh??ng mu???n ??i ng?????c l???i con ???????ng ???? ??i. ??i???u n??y ch??? ra m???t ??i???m: m???c d?? mu???n th??c ?????y trao ?????i kinh t??? v???i M???, nh??ng Vi???t Nam v???n do d??? t??ng c?????ng quan h??? ch??nh tr??? v?? qu??n s??? v???i ?????t n?????c t???ng l?? k??? th?? n??y.

Tuy nhi??n, di???n bi???n th???c t??? trong m???i quan h??? song ph????ng trong v??i n??m qua cho th???y m???t h?????ng ??i tr??i ng?????c; m???i quan t??m c???ng c??? quan h??? ch??nh tr??? v?? qu??n s??? v???i M??? c???a Vi???t Nam d?????ng nh?? c??ng s??u s???c h??n ngay c??? khi nh???ng n??? l???c nh?? v???y c?? th??? khi???n Trung Qu???c kh??ng h??i l??ng v?? g??y m???t t??? tin cho m???t b??? ph???n l??nh ?????o ?????ng.

M???c d?? c??c nh?? ngo???i giao Vi???t Nam n??i m???i quan h??? Vi???t ??? M??? t???t ?????p h??n ???????c ?????t trong khu??n kh??? ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i chung c???a Vi???t Nam l?? ??a d???ng h??a v?? ??a ph????ng h??a, h???u h???t c??c nh?? quan s??t b??n ngo??i ?????u cho r???ng ?????ng c?? ch??nh ?????ng sau quy???t ?????nh nu??i d?????ng m???i quan h??? th??n thi???t h??n ???? ch??? y???u li??n quan ?????n nh???ng c??ng th???ng ??ang gia t??ng tr??n Bi???n ????ng, n??i Trung Qu???c tr??? n??n ng??y c??ng ng??ng cu???ng trong c??ch th???c thi c??c tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n l??nh th??? v?? c??n c??? c???a m??nh.

V???i nh???ng tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n ch???ng l???n tr??n qu???n ?????o Ho??ng Sa, Tr?????ng Sa v?? c??c ranh gi???i bi???n, Vi???t Nam v?? Trung Qu???c l?? hai b??n ?????i l???p ch??nh trong tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng. Vi???t Nam nh??n chung coi cu???c x??m l?????c chi???m qu???n ?????o Ho??ng Sa c???a Trung Qu???c n??m 1974, cu???c ?????ng ????? h???i qu??n v???i Trung Qu???c t???i qu???n ?????o Tr?????ng Sa n??m 1988, v?? tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n bi???n d???a tr??n ???????ng 9 ??o???n l?? b???ng ch???ng cho th???y ch??? ngh??a b??nh tr?????ng Trung Qu???c, th??? m?? trong qu?? kh??? Vi???t Nam ???? t???ng l?? n???n nh??n.

Vi???c Trung Qu???c ng??y c??ng hung h??ng trong th???i gian g???n ????y ??? nh?? th??? hi???n trong v??? vi???c c???a t??u B??nh Minh 2 h???i th??ng 5/2011 (khi t??u Trung Qu???c t???n c??ng t??u kh???o s??t ?????a ch???t c???a Vi???t Nam), v?? vi???c th??nh l???p c??i g???i l?? th??nh ph??? Tam Sa v???a qua (m???t th??nh ph??? c???p t???nh tr???c thu???c t???nh H???i Nam ????? qu???n l?? c??c ?????o v?? b??i ???? tr??n Bi???n ????ng), v?? vi???c Trung Qu???c m???i th???u c??c nh?? th???u qu???c t??? 9 l?? th??m d?? d???u kh?? ngay trong v??ng ?????c quy???n c???a Vi???t Nam h???i th??ng 6 ??? c??ng b??o ?????ng Vi???t Nam v??? ?? ????? c???a Trung Qu???c ??? Bi???n ????ng.

???. Tr?????c s??? hi???n ?????i h??a qu??n s??? nhanh ch??ng ??? quy m?? l???n h??n nhi???u c???a Trung Qu???c, kho???ng c??ch qu??n s??? gi???a hai n?????c v???n ti???p t???c n???i r???ng. V?? th???, ngay c??? khi Vi???t Nam kh??ng ng???ng nh???n m???nh ch??nh s??ch qu???c ph??ng t??? l???c, Vi???t Nam c??ng v???n c???n l??m s??u s???c m???i quan h??? chi???n l?????c v???i c??c c?????ng qu???c ????? b??? tr??? cho nh???ng s??? y???u th??? ????ng k??? trong quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c.

Trong k???ch b???n ????, M??? tr??? th??nh ?????i t??c ???????c ??u ti??n h??n c???a Vi???t Nam. Tr?????c h???t, M??? l?? c?????ng qu???c duy nh???t c?? kh??? n??ng th??ch th???c v?? ki???m ch??? hi???u qu??? tham v???ng qu??n s??? c???a Trung Qu???c. Th??? hai, trong khi m???i ??e d???a ???di???n bi???n h??a b??nh??? ???????c cho l?? ??m m??u c???a c??c n?????c ph????ng T??y, ch??a mang ?????n nh???ng nguy c?? th???c s??? ?????i v???i s??? c???m quy???n c???a ?????ng, m???i ??e d???a mang t??n Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i ch??? quy???n v?? to??n v???n l??nh th??? c???a Vi???t Nam ??ang hi???n h???u h??n nhi???u. V?? th??? ba, trong khi th???c t??? m???i quan h??? g???n g??i h??n v???i M??? c?? th??? khi???n Trung Qu???c kh?? ch???u v?? mang l???i nh???ng h???u qu??? ti??u c???c cho n???n kinh t??? Vi???t Nam, c?? s??? ch??nh cho s??? c???m quy???n c???a ?????ng ??? ch??? ngh??a d??n t???c v?? tinh th???n ch???ng ngo???i x??m ??? c??ng c?? ngh??a l?? n???u nh?????ng b??? tr?????c ??p l???c c???a Trung Qu???c v?? ????? cho s??? to??n v???n l??nh th??? g???p nguy th?? n?? s??? th???m ch?? c??n g??y thi???t h???i h??n nhi???u cho uy t??n v?? t??nh ch??nh danh c???a ?????ng.

Quy???t ?????nh chuy???n h?????ng tr???ng t??m chi???n l?????c v??? ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng c???a M??? v???a qua??? c??ng s??? l??m di???n bi???n cu???c tranh ch???p thay ?????i theo h?????ng c?? l???i cho Vi???t Nam, ??t nh???t l?? trong ng???n h???n.

X??t v??? chi???n l?????c, tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng ??ang ???????c c???u th??nh b???i ba l???p m??u thu???n g???n b?? ch???t ch??? v???i nhau. L???p trong nh???t l?? cu???c ?????i ?????u gi???a Trung Qu???c v???i t???ng b??n tuy??n b??? ch??? quy???n Bi???n ????ng trong ASEAN, bao g???m Vi???t Nam. L???p ??? gi???a l?? cu???c c???nh tranh gi???a ASEAN v???i Trung Qu???c. L???p ngo??i c??ng l?? cu???c c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c m???i n???i l??n r?? r???t trong th???i gian g???n ????y gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? M???, trong ???? Bi???n ????ng l?? m???t trong nh???ng s??n kh???u di???n ra. M???c d?? M??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t b??n trong tranh ch???p, nh??ng tham v???ng kh?? ch???p nh???n v?? s??? gia t??ng quy???t li???t c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n Bi???n ????ng t???o cho M??? c??i c??? ????? can d??? v??o. ??i???u m?? M??? mu???n ?????m b???o th??ng qua tham gia v??o cu???c tranh ch???p kh??ng ph???i ch??? l?? h??a b??nh hay t??? do h??ng h???i tr??n Bi???n ????ng, m?? c?? v??? nh?? tranh ch???p c??n ??ang ???????c si??u c?????ng n??y s??? d???ng nh?? m???t c??ng c??? ti???n l???i ????? ki???m ch??? s??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ??? t???m khu v???c v?? tr??n ph???m vi to??n c???u.

?????ng th??i c???a M??? r?? r??ng ph?? h???p v???i l???i ??ch c???a Vi???t Nam, t???c l?? ????a tranh ch???p v???i Trung Qu???c ra l???p ngo??i c??ng ????? h??a gi???i s???c m???nh v?????t tr???i h??n c???a Trung Qu???c. S??? tham gia c???a M??? d?? l?? gi??n ti???p c??ng c?? th??? bu???c Trung Qu???c ph???i h??nh ?????ng th???n tr???ng h??n v?? ??t s???n s??ng s??? d???ng v?? l???c h??n. Ngo??i ra, toan t??nh chi???n l?????c c???a M??? ?????i v???i Trung Qu???c c??ng s??? l??m gi???m ??p l???c trong v???n ????? nh??n quy???n ?????i v???i Vi???t Nam v?? t???o c?? h???i th??c ?????y quan h??? song ph????ng b?????c l??n t???m cao m???i.

Vi???t Nam v?? M??? v???a c?? nh???ng b?????c ??i th??c ?????y xa h??n m???i quan h??? song ph????ng, ?????c bi???t trong l??nh v???c ch??nh tr??? v?? qu??n s???. Hai n?????c t???ng l?? k??? th?? ??ang t??? ch???c c??c cu???c ?????i tho???i an ninh, qu???c ph??ng v?? nh??n quy???n h???ng n??m. Trong chuy???n th??m l???ch s??? t???i v???nh Cam Ranh, B??? tr?????ng Benetta ???????c cho l?? ???? b??y t??? r???ng M??? s???n s??ng gi??p n??ng c???p c???ng v?? k??u g???i Vi???t Nam cho ph??p t??u h???i qu??n M???, bao g???m c??? t??u chi???n, c?? quy???n ti???p c???n l???n h??n t???i c?? s??? n??y. V?? n???u xu h?????ng h???p t??c ???? c??n ti???p t???c, M??? c?? th??? s??? xem x??t vi???c d??? b??? l???nh c???m v???n mua b??n v?? kh?? cho Vi???t Nam trong t????ng lai g???n. B??n c???nh ????, hai n?????c c??ng c?? nhi???u ?????ng th??i x??y d???ng l??ng tin v?? hi???u bi???t l???n nhau h??n n???a. ????n c???, t??? th??ng 8/2012, m???t d??? ??n do M??? t??i tr??? ???? b???t ?????u ???????c tri???n khai ????? kh??? c??c ch???t h??a h???c ?????c h???i t??? ch???t ?????cm??u da cam t???i m???t ?????a ??i???m g???n s??n bay ???? N???ng. D??? ??n ???????c ?????i s??? M??? David Shear mi??u t??? l?? ?????ng th??i c??? th??? c???a hai n?????c nh???m ch??n l???p di s???n c???a qu?? kh???.

Tuy nhi??n, m???c d?? mang l???i nh???ng l???i ??ch chi???n l?????c quan tr???ng, vi???c n???i l???i t??nh h???u ngh??? Vi???t-M??? trong b???i c???nh cu???c ?????i ?????u ?????a ch??nh tr??? ng??y c??ng s??u s???c gi???a M??? v???i Trung Qu???c c??ng mang ?????n cho Vi???t Nam nh???ng r???i ro, m?? nghi??m tr???ng nh???t l?? c?? th??? k??o Vi???t Nam v??o m???t cu???c ch??i quy???n l???c m???i. Khi Trung Qu???c ??ang t???ng b?????c h?????ng ?????n tr??? th??nh m???t si??u c?????ng, m???t cu???c chi???n tranh l???nh 2.0 c?? th??? s??? xu???t hi???n trong t????ng lai kh??ng xa. L?? thuy???t th??ng th?????ng, ?????c bi???t t??? quan ??i???m ch??? ngh??a hi???n th???c, s??? d??? ??o??n r???ng n???u s??? tr???i d???y c???a Trung Qu???c ??e d???a nghi??m tr???ng ?????n l???i ??ch to??n c???u c???a M???, M??? s??? ph???n ???ng l???i b???ng c??ch ki???m ch??? Trung Qu???c. Th???c t???, s??? chuy???n h?????ng tr???ng t??m qu??n s??? t??? ch??u ??u v??? ch??u ??, theo nh?? tuy??n b??? c???a Panetta t???i Singapore h???i th??ng 6 n??m nay, c?? th??? ???????c coi l?? d???u hi???u ban ?????u c???a ch??nh s??ch ki???m ch???. T????ng t???, ??? c???p ????? khu v???c, s??? can d??? nhi???u h??n c???a M??? v??o tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng t??? n??m 2010 cho th???y M??? ??ang t??m c??ch ng??n c???n Trung Qu???c hi???n th???c h??a tham v???ng bi???n c???a m??nh. T??m l???i, M??? ??ang s??? d???ng ???m???i ??e d???a Trung Qu???c??? ??? Bi???n ????ng ????? t???p h???p l???c l?????ng v?? s??? ???ng h??? nh???m ?????i ph?? v???i Trung Qu???c. Vi???c M??? n???i l???i quan t??m ?????i v???i Vi???t Nam, m???t qu???c gia c?? v??? tr?? ?????a l?? quan tr???ng v?? l?? k??? th?? c???a Trung Qu???c trong l???ch s???, do ???? ???????c ?????nh h??nh trong b???i c???nh n??y.

N???u c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c Trung ??? M??? ti???p t???c di???n tri???n quy???t li???t h??n, Vi???t Nam, v???i t?? c??ch l?? m???t n?????c l??ng gi???ng c???a Trung Qu???c v?? m???t b??n trong tranh ch???p Bi???n ????ng, s??? ??? v??o th??? r???t kh?? trong vi???c duy tr?? c??n b???ng gi???a hai c?????ng qu???c v?? tr??nh nh???ng ??i???u kh??ng mong mu???n. Khi M??? t??i c??n b???ng l???c l?????ng v??? ph??a ch??u ?? ??? Th??i B??nh D????ng v?? l??m s??u s???c th??m m???i quan h??? v???i c??c n?????c trong khu v???c, Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng th??? ?????ng y??n. Theo ????, Trung Qu???c s??? c??? g???ng g??y ??p l???c l??n Vi???t Nam, nh???c nh??? Vi???t Nam v??? t??m quan tr???ng c???a m???i quan h??? h???u h???o v???i Trung Qu???c. ????n c???, trong m???y th??ng tr??? l???i ????y, ???? c?? nh???ng b??o c??o v??? vi???c Trung Qu???c ng???ng ho???c tr?? ho??n nh???p kh???u m???t s??? h??ng h??a c???a Vi???t Nam v?? nh???ng nguy??n do c??n ch??a x??c ?????nh r??. Nh?? ???? n??i ??? tr??n, Trung Qu???c v???a th??nh l???p m???t ????n v??? qu??n s??? ?????n tr?? t???i c??i g???i l?? th??nh ph??? Tam Sa m???i th??nh l???p ????? ph??? tr??ch theo d??i khu v???c tranh ch???p ??? Bi???n ????ng. ?????ng th??i n??y r?? r??ng nh???m v??o Vi???t Nam v?? Philippine. Ch??a h???t, Trung Qu???c c??ng ng???m ng???m th???c hi???n chi???n d???ch ngo???i giao g??y ???nh h?????ng l??n Campuchia, l??ng gi???ng h???u ngh??? t??? nhi???u n??m c???a Vi???t Nam. Vi???c Campuchia, ???????c cho l?? d?????i ??p l???c c???a B???c Kinh, ph???n ?????i ????a v???n ????? Bi???n ????ng v??o th??ng c??o chung k???t th??c H???i ngh??? B??? tr?????ng ASEAN t???i Phnom Penh n??m nay c?? th??? ???????c coi l?? ?????ng th??i c???a Trung Qu???c nh???m chia r??? Vi???t Nam v?? Campuchia. M???t m???i quan h??? t???t v???i Campuchia c??ng c?? ?? ngh??a thi???t y???u ?????i v???i an ninh c???a Vi???t Nam, n??n d?????ng nh?? Trung Qu???c ???? bi???t ph???i l??m ??au Vi???t Nam nh?? th??? n??o n???u kh??ng d??nh cho B???c Kinh s??? quan t??m th??ch ????ng.

Tuy nhi??n, kh??? n??ng Vi???t Nam b??? l??i k??o v??o m???t cu???c ch??i quy???n l???c gi???a M??? v?? Trung Qu???c kh??ng n??n b??? ph??ng ?????i. Kh??? n??ng ???y v???n ph??? thu???c m???t s??? di???n bi???n kh??c. Quan tr???ng nh???t l?? cu???c c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c gi???a M??? v?? Trung Qu???c s??? tr??? n??n kh???c li???t ?????n m???c n??o. Kh??ng gi???ng nh?? th???i k??? Chi???n tranh l???nh, s??? ph??? thu???c l???n nhau m???nh m??? v?? ph???c t???p v??? kinh t??? ??ang c?? xu h?????ng h???n ch??? c??c c?????ng qu???c theo ??u???i ki???u ?????i ?????u th???i Chi???n tranh l???nh. Di???n bi???n t????ng l???i trong ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a M???, Trung Qu???c, v?? Vi???t Nam c??ng c?? vai tr?? nh???t ?????nh. ????n c???, n???u c?? ???????c s??? nh?????ng b??? t??? Trung Qu???c, v?? b??? Quy t???c ???ng x??? tr??n Bi???n ????ng ???????c th??ng qua, Vi???t Nam s??? th???y ??t s???n s??ng l??m s??u s???c quan h??? v???i M??? h??n n???u n?? ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c g??y t???n h???i cho quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c.

Vi???t Nam ng??y nay kh??ng gi???ng nh?? ?????t n?????c c???a Tri???u ?????i nh?? Nguy???n g???n hai th??? k??? tr?????c, kh??ng mu???n b??? qua c?? h???i c???ng c??? quan h??? v???i Washington. Tuy nhi??n, khi m?? cu???c c???nh tranh chi???n l?????c Trung-M??? t??ng nhi???t, nh??n t??? Trung Qu???c c??ng n???i l??n l?? v???n ????? th??ch th???c nh???t ?????i v???i c??c nh?? chi???n l?????c v?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch ?????i ngo???i c???a Vi???t Nam. Vi???t Nam b??? gi???ng x?? gi???a hai l???a ch???n: duy tr?? m???i quan h??? t???t v???i Trung Qu???c v?? th??c ?????y quan h??? v???ng ch???c h??n v???i M???. L?? m???t n?????c nh??? v?? l??ng gi???ng c???a Trung Qu???c, Vi???t Nam kh??ng mu???n ph???i l???a ch???n gi???a M??? v?? Trung Qu???c. H???u qu??? c???a m???i l???a ch???n nh?? th??? ai c??ng r??, n??n hi???n nhi??n, n???u ph???i quy???t ?????nh th?? ???? s??? l?? m???t l???a ch???n ?????y kh?? kh??n cho Vi???t Nam.

Ngu???n: American Review Magazine Vietnamnet

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