T???p C???n B??nh l?? ai?

Thứ hai - 25/11/2019 06:18
H??n m???t n???a nhi???m k??? 5 n??m ???? qua v???i t?? c??ch l?? ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c v?? T???ng b?? th?? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c ??? d??? ki???n s??? l?? nhi???m k??? ?????u trong ??t nh???t hai nhi???m k?????? vi???c T???p C???n B??nh ????n ??p lan r???ng ?????i v???i x?? h???i d??n s??? v?? ????? cao t??? s??ng b??i c?? nh??n ???? l??m th???t v???ng nhi???u nh?? quan s??t,

T???p C???n B??nh l?? ai?

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<> on September 4, 2014 in Beijing, China.

Ngu???n: Andrew J. Nathan,  ???Who Is Xi????, New York Review of Books, 12/05/2016.

Ng?????i d???ch: Phan V??n Song

H??n m???t n???a nhi???m k??? 5 n??m ???? qua v???i t?? c??ch l?? ch??? t???ch Trung Qu???c v?? T???ng b?? th?? ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c ??? d??? ki???n s??? l?? nhi???m k??? ?????u trong ??t nh???t hai nhi???m k?????? vi???c T???p C???n B??nh ????n ??p lan r???ng ?????i v???i x?? h???i d??n s??? v?? ????? cao t??? s??ng b??i c?? nh??n ???? l??m th???t v???ng nhi???u nh?? quan s??t, c??? Trung Qu???c l???n n?????c ngo??i, v???n th???y ??ng ta do di s???n gia ????nh v?? kinh nghi???m s???ng nh???t ?????nh ph???i l?? m???t nh?? c???i c??ch t??? do. Nhi???u ng?????i ngh?? T???p C???n B??nh t???t ph???i hi???u ???????c s??? nguy hi???m c???a s??? ?????c t??i c???a ?????ng qua kinh nghi???m gia ????nh ??ng d?????i th???i cai tr??? c???a Mao. Cha ??ng, T???p Tr???ng Hu??n (1913-2002), ???? g???n nh?? b??? x??? t??? trong m???t cu???c xung ?????t b??n trong ?????ng n??m 1935, ???? b??? thanh tr???ng trong m???t cu???c ?????u kh??c v??o n??m 1962, b??? ???l??i ra??? v?? ch???u nh???c h??nh trong cu???c C??ch m???ng V??n h??a, v?? ???? ???????c cho ngh??? h??u sau m???t cu???c ?????i ?????u kh??c trong ?????ng n??m 1987. Trong cu???c C??ch m???ng V??n h??a, m???t ch??? c??ng cha kh??c m??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh ???? b??? d??y v?? ?????n m???c ph???i t??? t???. Ngay ch??nh T???p C???n B??nh, con c???a m???t ???k??? ch???y theo t?? b???n???, ???? b??? ???????a v??? n??ng th??n??? ????? lao ?????ng c??ng v???i n??ng d??n. Nh???ng kh?? kh??n gay g???t ?????n m???c ??ng ???????c cho l?? ???? c??? ????? tr???n tho??t, nh??ng b??? b???t v?? ????a tr??? l???i.

 

Kh??ng ng???c nhi??n l?? sau ???? c??? hai cha con ?????u cho th???y m???t s??? h???t l??ng v?? c??ng cu???c c???i c??ch trong su???t s??? nghi???p c???a h???. D?????i th???i ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, ??ng T???p cha ???? ti??n phong trong c???i c??ch m??? c???a ??? t???nh Qu???ng ????ng ph??a nam v?? ????ng m???t vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong vi???c th??nh l???p ?????c khu kinh t??? Th???m Quy???n. N??m 1987, ch??? c?? m???t m??nh ??ng trong c??c u??? vi??n B??? Ch??nh tr??? kh??ng b??? phi???u thanh tr???ng nh?? l??nh ?????o ?????ng t??? do H??? Di???u Bang. Ch??ng T???p con kh???i nghi???p nh?? l?? m???t nh?? qu???n l?? khi??m t???n, th???c d???ng, ???ng h??? t??ng tr?????ng, l??c ?????u ??? v??ng n??ng th??n v?? sau ???? ??? Ph??c Ki???n, Chi???t Giang v?? Th?????ng H???i, ba t???nh c???i m??? v???i th??? gi???i b??n ngo??i nh???t c???a Trung Qu???c. Trong ch???ng cu???i c??ng c???a h??nh tr??nh leo l??n quy???n l???c, ??ng ???? ???????c ??u ??i ch???n h??n ?????i th??? B???c Hy Lai, ng?????i ???? ????? cao c??c ch??nh s??ch theo ki???u C??ch m???ng V??n ho?? t???i si??u ???? th??? Tr??ng Kh??nh.

V?? t???t c??? nh???ng l?? do n??y, khi th??ng ti???n l??n v??? tr?? ch??p bu T???p C???n B??nh ???? ???????c nhi???u ng?????i d??? ki???n s??? theo ??u???i t??? do h??a ch??nh tr??? v?? c???i c??ch th??? tr?????ng. Thay v?? v???y, ??ng ???? kh??i ph???c r???t nhi???u ?????c ??i???m nguy hi???m nh???t trong c??ch cai tr??? c???a Mao: ?????c t??i c?? nh??n, tu??n th??? ?? th???c h??? c?????ng b???c, v?? b???c h???i t??y ti???n.

Ch??a kh??a cho ngh???ch l?? n??y l?? vi???c T???p C???n B??nh c?? v??? t??n k??nh m???t c??ch phi l?? Mao. Quan ??i???m c???a T???p C???n B??nh v??? Mao l??? ra trong ti???u s??? ch??nh th???c c???a cha ??ng do c??c h???c gi??? c???a ?????ng bi??n so???n, m?? t???p m???t ???????c xu???t b???n khi T???p C???n B??nh g???n n???m ???????c quy???n t???i th?????ng v?? t???p hai ra sau khi ??ng ???? tr??? th??nh T???ng b?? th?? ?????ng v?? Ch??? t???ch n?????c. M?? t??? vi???c ??ng T???p cha g???n nh?? b??? x??? t??? n??m 1935, cu???n s??ch n??i r???ng Mao ???? c???u m???ng ??ng ta, ra l???nh th??? ??ng ra v???i nh???n x??t r???ng ?????u kh??ng gi???ng nh?? h??nh l??: n???u c???t ra n?? s??? kh??ng m???c tr??? l???i. Mao sau ???? ????? c??? T???p Tr???ng Hu??n l??m m???t quan ch???c ??? Di??n An v?? sau n??m 1949 l??m quan ch???c h??ng ch??p bu ??? B???c Kinh.

?????i v???i vi???c thanh tr???ng T???p Tr???ng Hu??n n??m 1962, cu???n ti???u s??? ????? l???i cho Khang Sinh (??????/Kang Sheng), tr?????ng m???t v??? c???a Mao, ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? cho ch??nh Mao, v?? cho r???ng Mao ???? b???o v??? T???p Tr???ng Hu??n b???ng c??ch ????a ??ng ta ?????n l??m vi???c t???i m???t nh?? m??y ??? t???nh an to??n c??ch xa kh???i c??n b??o ch??nh tr??? ??? B???c Kinh. Khi cu???c C??ch m???ng v??n h??a n??? ra m???t v??i n??m sau ???? v?? H???ng v??? binh ???l??i??? T???p Tr???ng Hu??n ra kh???i vi???c l??m ??? nh?? m??y n??y ????? h??nh h??? th??? x??c v?? ????????u tranh???, cu???n ti???u s??? n??i r???ng th??? t?????ng Chu ??n Lai ???? cho giam h??? T???p trong m???t doanh tr???i qu??n ?????i g???n B???c Kinh nh?? m???t c??ch ????? b???o v??? ??ng ta. Kh??ng nghi ng??? nh???ng c??u chuy???n n??y ???????c xoa n???n l???i ????? tr??nh b??y Mao theo c??ch T???p C???n B??nh mu???n ??ng ta ???????c th???y. Nh??ng ch??ng c?? c??n c??? trong th???c t??? l???ch s??? v?? gi??p gi???i th??ch s??? ph???c t???p c???a m???i quan h??? c???a T???p C???n B??nh v???i di s???n c???a Mao. Nh?? T???p C???n B??nh n??i m???y n??m sau, ???N???u Mao kh??ng c???u cha t??i th?? t??i kh??ng c?? m???t ??? ????y ng??y h??m nay.???

Vi???c T???p C???n B??nh t??n th??? Mao kh??ng ph???i l?? ??i???u d??? th?????ng ri??ng l???. N?? c??ng ???????c nhi???u ng?????i trong gi???i qu?? t???c c???ng s???n k??? th???a chia s??? m?? h???, nh?? Agn??s Andresy ch??? ra trong cu???n s??ch v??? T???p C???n B??nh, v???n h??nh th??nh n??n h???u h???t l??nh ?????o ch??p bu c??ng nh?? ph???n l???n gi???i ch??? ch???t doanh nghi???p c???a Trung Qu???c hi???n nay. H???i n??m 1981 ?????ng Ti???u B??nh tuy??n b??? r???ng c??ng c???a Mao v?????t h??n t???i (trong m???t ?? ki???n kh??ng ch??nh th???c) theo???t??? l??? 7 tr??n 3.??? Nh??ng trong th???c ti???n ?????ng Ti???u B??nh t??? b??? g???n nh?? m???i th??? m?? Mao c??? v??. Tr??i ng?????c v???i s??? ?????ng thu???n c???a ph????ng T??y r???ng ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? c???u h??? th???ng sau khi  g???n nh?? b??? Mao l??m ch??m, T???p C???n B??nh v?? r???t nhi???u qu?? t???c ????? kh??c c???m th???y r???ng ch??nh ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? ??i g???n ?????n ch??? hu??? di???t di s???n c???a Mao.

Vi???c h??? t??n th??? Mao kh??c bi???t v???i nh???ng ho??i ni???m ????n gi???n c???a c??c c???u H???ng v??? binh v?? c??c thanh ni??n ???????c ph??i xu???ng v???n nh??? m?? h??? v??? m???t giai ??o???n c???a ch??? ngh??a l?? t?????ng ch??a tr?????ng th??nh. Thay v?? v???y, nh?? nh?? t?? t?????ng ???ng h??? d??n ch??? L?? V?? ????ng (?????????/Li Weidong) vi???t trong m???t b??i ti???u lu???n ???????c b??n lu???n nhi???u tr??n m???ng, ??????Con ???????ng c???a ????? qu???c ???????? kh??ng th??? ??i qua???, con c??i c???a c??c c??ng th???n s??ng l???p t??? coi m??nh l?? ng?????i th???a k??? ???thi??n h??????, m???t th??? gi???i r???ng l???n m?? cha m??? h??? ???? chinh ph???c d?????i s??? l??nh ?????o c???a Mao. Cha m??? h??? c?? g???c g??c ??? c??c v??ng n??ng th??n ngh??o n??n v?? ?????ng l??n cai tr??? m???t ????? ch???. Th??? h??? th??? hai h?????ng ?????c quy???n s???ng trong m???t ?????t n?????c v???n ???? ???v????n d???y??? v?? ???????c to??n c???u t??n tr???ng v?? n??? s???. H??? kh??ng tr?? ?????nh l??m th??? h??? ???????nh m???t ????? qu???c.???

Ch??nh logic n??y ???? th??c ?????y L??u Nguy??n (??????/Liu Yuan), con trai c???u ch??? t???ch L??u Thi???u K???, ng?????i b??? Mao thanh tr???ng v?? ????a ?????n m???t c??i ch???t ??au kh???, h???u thu???n T???p C???n B??nh trong vi???c l??m s???ng l???i c??c ?? t?????ng v?? c??c bi???u t?????ng c???a Mao; v?? c??ng logic n??y ???? chuy???n con c??i c???a nhi???u n???n nh??n n???i b???t kh??c c???a Mao h??nh th??nh n??n c??c nh??m t??n vinh di s???n c???a Mao, nh?? Hi???p h???i con c??i c???a Di??n An B???c Kinh v?? Hi???p h???i ????? cao v??n h??a c???a nh???ng nh?? s??ng l???p Qu???c gia B???c Kinh.[i]

C??c th??i t??? ?????ng d?????ng nh?? hi???u theo ngh??a ??en sinh h???c v??? ???huy???t th???ng lu???n??? v??? s??? tinh khi???t ch??nh tr??? v???n ph??? bi???n trong gi???i con c??i c??c H???ng v??? binh ch??? ch???t trong cu???c C??ch m???ng v??n h??a: ???N???u cha l?? anh h??ng con s??? l?? h???o h??n, n???u cha l?? ph???n ?????ng con s??? l?? tr???ng th???i??? (?????????????????????????????????????????????/laozi yingxiong er haohan, laozi fandong er huaidan: L??o t??? anh h??ng nh??n h???o h??n, l??o t??? ph???n ?????ng nh??n h???n ?????n). H??? kh??ng th???y c?? ch??t mai m???a khi c??? v?? T???p C???n B??nh t???n c??ng c??c quan ch???c tham nh??ng d?? Mao ???? thanh tr???ng ch??nh cha m??? h??? nh?? l?? nh???ng ???k??? ch???y theo t?? b???n n???m quy???n l???c.??? H??? b??o ch???a r???ng vi???c thanh tr???ng c???a Mao l?? m???t sai s??t. Nh??ng h??? th???y c??c quan ch???c hi???n nay ????? v??o ph???c v??? ?????ng l?? v?? ?????ng ??ang n???m quy???n l???c ch??? kh??ng ph???i v?? h??? ???????c th???a h?????ng tinh th???n hy sinh c??ch m???ng t??? cha ??ng. B???n c?? h???i ???? l?? s??u m???c ??ang ??n m??n di s???n c??ch m???ng.

Di s???n c???a Mao c??ng ??ang b??? c??c th??? l???c kh??c ??e d???a. T???p C???n B??nh n???m quy???n v??o m???t th???i ??i???m m?? ch??? ????? ph???i ?????i ?????u v???i m???t lo???t c??c th??ch th???c gay g???t v???n ?????u ?????t ?????n giai ??o???n nguy c???p c??ng m???t l??c. Ch??? ????? ph???i qu???n l?? m???t n???n kinh t??? ch???m l???i; ph???i xoa d???u h??ng tri???u c??ng nh??n b??? sa th???i; ph???i chuy???n nhu c???u t??? c??c th??? tr?????ng xu???t kh???u sang ti??u th??? trong n?????c; ph???i x???c l???i c??c doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c kh???ng l??? ho???t ?????ng k??m hi???u qu???; ph???i xua tan m???t ?????ng c??c kho???n n??? x???u v?? c??c kho???n ?????u t?? kh??ng hi???u qu??? ??ang treo l?? l???ng; ph???i c???i thi???n t??nh tr???ng bi???n ?????i kh?? h???u v?? s??? t??n ph?? m??i tr?????ng v???n l??m t???ng l???p trung l??u m???i kh?? ch???u; v?? ph???i gi???m quy m?? v?? n??ng c???p qu??n ?????i. V??? m???t qu???c t???, c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh ch??nh s??ch Trung Qu???c th???y ch??nh m??nh b??? bu???c ph???i ????p l???i m???t c??ch qu??? quy???t ??p l???c ng??y c??ng t??ng t??? Hoa K???, Nh???t B???n, v?? c??c ch??? ????? ????ng Nam ?? kh??c nhau ??ang c??? g???ng ch???ng l???i vi???c b???o v??? m???t c??ch ch??nh ????ng c???a Trung Qu???c ?????i v???i c??c l???i ??ch ??? nh???ng n??i nh?? ????i Loan, qu???n ?????o Senkaku, v?? Bi???n ????ng.

L??nh ?????o n??o ?????i m???t v???i r???t nhi???u v???n ????? l???n ph???i c???n r???t nhi???u quy???n l???c, v?? Mao cung c???p m???t m?? h??nh v??? c??ch m?? quy???n l???c nh?? th??? c?? th??? ???????c n???m gi???. T???p C???n B??nh l??nh ?????o ?????ng, Nh?? n?????c, v?? h??? th???ng th??? b???c qu??n s??? qua v??? tr?? ch??? t???ch ??? m???i t??? ch???c n??y. Nh??ng hai ng?????i ti???n nhi???m li???n tr?????c c???a ??ng, Giang Tr???ch D??n v?? H??? C???m ????o, th???c hi???n c??c vai tr?? n??y trong h??? th???ng l??nh ?????o t???p th???, trong ???? m???i u??? vi??n Ban Th?????ng v??? B??? Ch??nh tr??? ph??? tr??ch m???t ch??nh s??ch hay t??? ch???c c??? th??? v?? h?????ng d???n n?? m?? kh??ng c?? s??? can thi???p nhi???u t??? c??c quan ch???c c???p cao kh??c.

M?? h??nh n??y kh??ng t???o ra quy???n l??nh ?????o ????? mang t??nh quy???t ?????nh ????? ????p ???ng T???p C???n B??nh v?? nh???ng k??? ???ng h??? ??ng. V?? v???y, T???p C???n B??nh ???? ph???i cho c??c u??? vi??n kh??c c???a Ban Th?????ng v??? B??? Ch??nh tr???, ?????ng b??n l??? ngo???i tr??? tr?????ng ban tuy??n truy???n L??u V??n S??n (?????????/Liu Yunshan) v?? Tr?????ng ban gi??m s??t ch???ng tham nh??ng V????ng K??? S??n (?????????/Wang Qishan). ??ng ???? n???m v??? tr?? ch??? t???ch c???a 7 t??? quan tr???ng nh???t trong 22 ???t??? l??nh ?????o??? ch??? ?????o ch??nh s??ch trong c??c l??nh v???c c??? th???, bao g???m T??? l??nh ?????o t??ng c?????ng c???i c??ch to??n di???n trung ????ng m???i th??nh l???p, t??? n??y ???? lo???i Th??? t?????ng L?? Kh???c C?????ng ra kh???i vi???c qu???n l?? kinh t???. V?? T???p C???n B??nh ???? l???p ra H???i ?????ng An ninh Qu???c gia ????? ??i???u ph???i c??c v???n ????? an ninh n???i b???.

T???p C???n B??nh m?? ph???ng Mao trong vi???c th???c hi???n quy???n l???c th??ng qua m???t nh??m th??n c???n c??c tr??? l?? m?? ??ng c?? th??? tin c???y do h??? ???? ch???ng t??? l??ng trung th??nh c?? nh??n c???a h??? trong nh???ng giai ??o???n ?????u ti??n trong s??? nghi???p c???a ??ng, ch???ng h???n nh?? L???t Chi???n Th?? (Li Zhanshu), ch??? nhi???m V??n ph??ng c???a ???y ban Trung ????ng ??CSTQ ?????y quy???n l???c. Nh?? h???c gi??? L?? Th??nh (Cheng Li) n??u trong China Leadership Monitor, L???t Chi???n Th?? c??ng b??? m???t b??i b??o h???i th??ng 9 n??m 2014, n??i r???ng l??m vi???c nh?? m???t tr??? l?? trong vi???c x??y d???ng ch??nh s??ch ????i h???i ???s??? trung th??nh tuy???t ?????i??? v?? r???ng nh??n vi??n trong t???ng v??n ph??ng ???n??n h??nh ?????ng v?? suy ngh?? theo c??ch ph?? h???p cao nh???t??? v???i c??c m???nh l???nh t??? U??? ban Trung ????ng do T???ng B?? th?? T???p C???n B??nh l??nh ?????o.???[ii] Nh???ng ng?????i ???????c T???p C???n B??nh b???o tr??? chi???m c??c v??? tr?? tr???ng y???u trong b??? m??y ph??? tr??ch v??? an ninh, gi??m s??t c??ng vi???c c??c quan ch???c, v?? tuy??n truy???n. Kh??ng gi???ng nh?? c??c nh??n vi??n nhi???u quy???n l???c trong ch??nh quy???n tr?????c ????y, c??c tr??? l?? c???a ??ng tr??nh ti???p x??c v???i ng?????i n?????c ngo??i v?? th???m ch?? v???i c??c quan ch???c b??n ngo??i nh??m ri??ng c???a T???p C???n B??nh.

T???p C???n B??nh c??ng ??i theo m?? h??nh c???a Mao trong vi???c b???o v??? quy???n cai tr??? c???a m??nh ch???ng l???i ?????o ch??nh. Chi???n d???ch ch???ng tham nh??ng ???? l??m cho ??ng c?? r???t nhi???u k??? th??, v?? ???? c?? nhi???u tin ?????n v??? c??c ??m m??u ??m s??t. Tuy nhi??n, nh?? James Mulvenon v?? Cheng Li ???? ch??? ra, T???p C???n B??nh ???? th???t ch???t ki???m so??t tr???c ti???p qu??n ?????i qua c??i g???i l?? ???Ch??? t???ch Ph??? tr??ch ch??? [Qu??n ???y Trung ????ng]???, v?? ??ng ki???m so??t qu??n ??o??n b???o v??? trung ????ng ??? ch???u tr??ch nhi???m theo d??i s??? an to??n c???a t???t c??? c??c l??nh ?????o ??? th??ng qua v??? s?? tr?????ng l??u n??m, V????ng Thi???u Qu??n (Wang Shaojun).[iii] Theo nh???ng c??ch n??y T???p C???n B??nh ki???m so??t m??i tr?????ng th???c t??? c???a c??c l??nh ?????o kh??c, c??ng gi???ng nh?? Mao ???? l??m th??ng qua thu???c h??? trung th??nh U??ng ????ng H??ng.

T???p C???n B??nh truy???n s??? t??? tin ki???u Napoleon v??o t???m quan tr???ng c???a nhi???m v??? c???a ??ng v?? s??? th??nh c??ng t???t y???u c???a n??. Trong giao ti???p c?? nh??n ??ng ???????c cho l?? ni???m n??? v?? tho???i m??i. Nh??ng h??nh ???nh tr?????c c??ng ch??ng ???????c ch??m ch??t c???n th???n c???a ??ng l???i ??i theo Mao trong vi???c th??? hi???n s??? c?? m???t d???ng d??ng v?? v??? m???t b???t ?????ng m?? vi???c ???? d?????ng nh?? ????? truy???n d???n s??? ch???u ?????ng ho???c s??? kh?? xi??u l??ng, t??y thu???c v??o vi???c ??ng ??ang ng???i nghe m???t ph??t bi???u nh??m ch??n ho???c ??ang ????a ra m???t ph??t bi???u. C??c c?? quan tuy??n truy???n c??? s???c ????? t???o ra m???t h??nh ???nh ???B??? T???p??? g???n g??i, v?? T???p C???n B??nh c?? v??? th???c s??? ???????c c??ng ch??ng ng?????ng m???, m???c d?? ??i???u n??y ???? thay ?????i khi n???n kinh t??? ch???m l???i.[iv] Nh??ng chi???n d???ch ch???ng tham nh??ng ???nh h?????ng ?????n r???t nhi???u ng?????i c???a ??ng c??n ??ang ti???p t???c, gi???i ch??? ch???t trong quan ch???c v?? tr?? th???c h??ng ?????u coi bi???u hi???n c???a ??ng nh?? l?? b?? hi???m v?? ????ng s???.

Tr??n h???t, T???p C???n B??nh ???? theo Mao trong ????i h???i tu??n th??? v??? ?? th???c h???. ??ng ???? vi???n d???n ???B??i n??i t???i Di???n ????n Di??n An v??? V??n h???c v?? Ngh??? thu???t??? c???a Mao trong vi???c gi???i th??ch l?? do t???i sao v??n h??a v?? nh??n vi??n truy???n th??ng ph???i th??? hi???n ???t??nh ?????ng??? v?? ph???c v??? nh?? l?? ???mi???ng l?????i??? c???a ?????ng v?? ???? s??? d???ng ngh??? quy???t m?? Mao ???? vi???t cho c???a H???i ngh??? ?????ng ??? C??? ??i???n (??????/Gutian) n??m 1929 nh???n m???nh t???m quan tr???ng c???a vi???c ?????ng ki???m so??t qu??n ?????i. ??ng ???? c???nh b??o c??c ?????ng vi??n ch???ng l???i vi???c ???b??n lu???n v?? tr??ch nhi???m??? (??????/wangyi: u???ng ngh???) v?? c???nh b??o c??c h???c gi??? kh??ng ???????c ???ng h??? c??c ???gi?? tr??? ph??? qu??t.??? Nh?? David Shambaugh b??o c??o trong cu???n s??ch g???n ????y c???a ??ng China???s Future (T????ng lai c???a Trung Qu???c):

Hi???n ???? c?? m???t chi???n d???ch ????n ??p kh??ng ng???ng ?????i v???i t???t c??? c??c d???ng b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n v?? c??c nh?? ho???t ?????ng x?? h???i; Internet v?? c??c ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng x?? h???i ???? ph???i ch???u s??? ki???m so??t ch???t ch??? h??n; th??nh gi?? v?? nh?? th??? b??? ph?? h???y; ng?????i Duy Ng?? Nh?? v?? ng?????i T??y T???ng b??? b???c h???i ng??y c??ng l???n h??n; h??ng tr??m lu???t s?? nh??n quy???n ???? b??? b???t gi??? v?? ????a ra x??t x???; t??? h???p c??ng c???ng b??? h???n ch???; nhi???u lo???i ???n ph???m b??? ki???m duy???t; s??ch gi??o khoa n?????c ngo??i b??? ch??nh th???c b??? c???m ??? c??c l???p h???c ?????i h???c; tr?? th???c b??? ?????t  d?????i s??? gi??m s??t ch???t ch???; c??c t??? ch???c phi ch??nh ph??? (NGO) n?????c ngo??i v?? trong n?????c ???? ch???u ??p l???c ??i???u ti???t c???a ch??nh ph??? ch??a t???ng c?? v?? nhi???u t??? ch???c ???? b??? bu???c ph???i r???i kh???i Trung Qu???c; c??c cu???c t???n c??ng v??o c??c ???th??? l???c th?? ?????ch n?????c ngo??i??? di???n ra ?????u ?????n; v?? b??? m??y an ninh ???duy tr?? s??? ???n ?????nh??? ???? che k??n to??n ?????t n?????c ???. Trung Qu???c hi???n nay h?? kh???c h??n b???t c??? l??c n??o k??? t??? th???i k??? sau Thi??n An M??n 1989-1992.

Nh??ng T???p C???n B??nh kh??c v???i Mao theo nh???ng c??ch quan tr???ng. ??ng c?? th??ng tin ch??nh x??c h??n Mao, nh??? h??? th???ng t??nh b??o v?? ph??n t??ch m??? r???ng, c?? t??? ch???c, v?? chuy??n nghi???p, v?? nh??? v??o nh???ng g?? ??ng ???? thu th???p ???????c trong chuy???n ??i trong n?????c v?? ra n?????c ngo??i. ??ng d??ng ki???u to?? ??n n???i b??? ?????ng v?? k???t t???i tham nh??ng h??n l?? h?? h??t H???ng v??? binh v?? c??o bu???c x??t l???i ????? thanh tr???ng ?????i th???, v?? d??ng c??ng an ch??nh tr??? h??n l?? phong tr??o qu???n ch??ng ????? ????n ??p b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n. Mao l?? m???t nh?? t?? t?????ng v?? t??c gi??? v??n h???c; T???p C???n B??nh c?? nh???ng ?? t?????ng t???m th?????ng nh??ng c?? ch??? ?? v?? ph?? h???p h??n trong vi???c ra quy???t ?????nh. Th??i quen c?? nh??n c???a ??ng c?? v??? c?? tr???t t??? so v???i cung c??ch h???n lo???n c???a Mao trong vi???c s??? d???ng th???i gian. Sau cu???c h??n nh??n th???t b???i ng???n ng???i ?????u, T???p C???n B??nh l???p gia ????nh ???n ?????nh v???i B??nh L??? Vi??n (?????????/Peng Liyuan), m???t ca s?? n???i ti???ng kh???i nghi???p trong qu??n ?????i. Quan h??? c???a h??? c?? v??? theo ?????c l??? nh??m ch??n; th???m ch?? ??? th??nh ph??? B???c Kinh ?????y tin ?????n c??ng kh??ng c?? g?? n???i l??n cho th???y r???ng ??ng l?? m???t k??? ham th??ch s???c d???c nh?? Mao. (C??ng kh??ng c?? nh???ng tin ?????n t???o ra nh???ng c??o bu???c r???ng c?? nh??n T???p C???n B??nh l?? tham nh??ng, m???c d?? Bloomberg News cho th???y ch??? v?? anh r??? c???a ??ng ???? l??m ra r???t nhi???u ti???n.[v])

V?? T???p C???n B??nh kh??ng l?? nh?? c??ch m???ng. ??ng kh??ng h??? t??m c??ch ?????o l???n Trung Qu???c c??ng kh??ng quay ng?????c ?????ng h??? tr??? l???i th???i c??ng x?? n??ng th??n v?? n???n kinh t??? k??? ho???ch. Thay v??o ????, ??ng tuy??n b???, kh??ng ???????c ph??p ph??? nh???n ???hai th???i k??? ba m????i n??m??? ?????? t???c l?? k??? nguy??n c???a Mao v?? th???i k??? c???i c??ch h???u Mao sau ????. Trung Qu???c ph???i k???t h???p s??? v???ng ch???c c???a ch??? ngh??a Mao v???i c???i c??ch hi???n ?????i h??a.

Tuy nhi??n, c???i c??ch m?? ??ng c?? trong ?????u kh??c v???i nh???ng g?? nhi???u nh?? quan s??t, c??? Trung Qu???c l???n ph????ng T??y, mong mu???n. Sau khi ti???n l??n v??? tr?? quy???n l???c, tuy??n ng??n ch??nh s??ch ?????u ti??n do ch??? ????? c???a ??ng ????a ra n??u r???ng ???th??? tr?????ng n??n ????ng vai tr?? quy???t ?????nh trong vi???c ph??n b??? c??c ngu???n l???c,??? nh??ng ???? tr??? n??n r?? r??ng r???ng c??c l???c l?????ng th??? tr?????ng ???????c d??ng c?? ch??? ?? nh?? l?? m???t c??ng c??? ????? th??m sinh l???c ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? ????? hu??? di???t, c??c doanh nghi???p nh?? n?????c v?? c??c t??? ch???c t??i ch??nh nh?? n?????c ???v?? ?????ch qu???c gia??? ti???p t???c ???????c h?????ng s??? b???o tr??? c???a nh?? n?????c v?? chi???m ph???n l???n trong n???n kinh t???. T???p C???n B??nh hi???u nh???ng t??? ch???c n??y l?? tr??? c???t c???a quy???n l???c nh?? n?????c v?? s??? kh??ng bao gi??? giao quy???n ki???m so??t n???n kinh t??? cho c??c doanh nghi???p m?? ?????ng kh??ng ki???m so??t.

T???p C???n B??nh mu???n ???ph??p quy???n???, nh??ng ??i???u n??y c?? ngh??a l?? s??? d???ng c??c t??a ??n m???t c??ch t??ch c???c ????? th???c hi???n vi???c ????n ??p ch??nh tr??? v?? thay ?????i phong c??ch l??m vi???c c???a b??? m??y quan ch???c. ??ng mu???n c???i t??? c??c tr?????ng ?????i h???c, kh??ng ph???i ????? t???o s??? t??? do h???c thu???t ki???u ph????ng T??y m?? ????? ????a c??c h???c gi??? v?? sinh vi??n v??o v??ng ki???m so??t (k??? c??? nh???ng ng?????i nghi??n c???u ??? n?????c ngo??i). ??ng ???? ph??t ?????ng t??? ch???c l???i to??n di???n qu??n ?????i, ??i???u n??y m???t ph???n c?? ?? ?????nh l?? ????? l??m cho n?? hi???u qu??? h??n trong chi???n ?????u, nh??ng c??ng l?? ????? t??i kh???ng ?????nh l??ng trung th??nh c???a qu??n ?????i v???i ?????ng v?? c?? nh??n ??ng. M???c ????ch t???ng th??? c???a c???i c??ch l?? ????? gi??? cho ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c v???n n???m quy???n l???c.

M???c ti??u m?? T???p C???n B??nh n??u ra cho Trung Qu???c l?? ?????t ???????c ???m???t x?? h???i t????ng ?????i kh?? gi?????? (????????????/xiaokang shehui: ti???u khang x?? h???i) v??o d???p k??? ni???m l???n th??? 100 ng??y th??nh l???p ?????ng v??o n??m 2021, v?? ???m???t x?? h???i hi???n ?????i h??a x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a??? (???????????????????????????/shehuizhuyi xiandaihua shehui: x?? h???i ch??? ngh??a hi???n ?????i ho?? x?? h???i) v??o d???p k??? ni???m l???n th??? 100 th??nh l???p ng??y th??nh l???p n?????c CHND Trung Hoa v??o n??m 2049.

Nh???ng m???c ti??u n??y nghe c?? v??? khi??m t???n nh??ng t??o b???o. M???c ti??u cho n??m 2049 ???????c n??i l?? bao h??m m???t m???c GDP b??nh qu??n ?????u ng?????i l?? 30.000 ???? la M???, v?? c??c nh?? ho???ch ?????nh Trung Qu???c ?????c t??nh r???ng n???u ?????t ???????c m???c ti??u ???? th?? Trung Qu???c s??? t???o ra h??n 30% GDP c???a th??? gi???i trong n??m ????, cao h??n kho???ng m???t l???n r?????i so v???i t??? l??? do Hoa K??? t???o ra hi???n nay. ??i???u ???? s??? t???o ra m???t quy???n l???c to??n c???u r???t l???n. Tuy nhi??n, n??m 2049 v???n l?? m???t ch???ng ???????ng d??i. C??n b??y gi???, T???p C???n B??nh s??? kh??ng ng???n ng???i ph???n c??ng n???u ??ng tin r???ng ???l???i ??ch c???t l??i??? c???a n?????c n??y xung quanh ngo???i vi c???a n?? ??ang b??? ??e d???a, nh??ng ??u ti??n c???a ??ng v??? c?? b???n v???n l?? trong n?????c.

T???p C???n B??nh ???? t??? l??m m??nh m???nh m??? h??n ?????ng hay th???m ch?? Mao trong m???t s??? c??ch. D?? ?????ng l?? ng?????i c?? k???t lu???n cu???i c??ng v??? c??c v???n ????? ch??nh s??ch kh??, nh??ng ??ng ta v???n c??? g???ng ????? tr??nh can d??? v??o ch??nh s??ch h??ng ng??y, v?? khi b??? bu???c ph???i ????a ra nh???ng quy???t ?????nh l???n th?? tr?????c h???t ??ng t??m s??? ?????ng thu???n trong m???t nh??m nh??? c??c l??nh ?????o c???p cao. Mao c?? th??? ????a ra b???t k??? quy???t ?????nh n??o m?? ??ng mu???n b???t ch???p ?? ch?? c???a c??c l??nh ?????o c???p cao kh??c, nh??ng v??o m???i l??c ??ng ch??? ch?? ?? ?????n m???t v??i v???n ?????. T???p C???n B??nh c?? v??? ??ang ??i???u khi???n tr???n m???t lo???t ch??nh s??ch quan tr???ng h??ng ng??y m?? kh??ng c???n tham kh???o ?? ki???n c??c l??nh ?????o c???p cao kh??c ho???c c??c b???c l??o th??nh v??? h??u.

??ng ta th???m ch?? c?? th??? ??i xa h??n n???a. C?? nh???ng ch??? d???u g???i r???ng ??ng s??? t??m c??ch ph?? v??? h???n ?????nh hai nhi???m k??? 5 n??m n???m quy???n m???i ???????c thi???t l???p v?? s??? ng???i ti???p m???t ho???c th???m ch?? nhi???u nhi???m k??? n???a. ??ng ???? t??? ch??? ?????nh m??nh l?? ???c???t l??i??? c???a ban l??nh ?????o, m???t ?????a v??? m?? H??? C???m ????o, ng?????i ti???n nhi???m li???n tr?????c ???? kh??ng n???m l???y cho m??nh. T???i th???i ??i???m n??y trong nhi???m k??? ?????u l??nh ?????o ch??ng ta mong th???y m???t ho???c hai ch??nh tr??? gia tr??? tu???i m???i n???i nh?? ng?????i th???a k??? ti???m n??ng hi???n ra, v?? s??? ???????c t???n phong trong ?????i h???i ?????ng 19 n??m t???i, nh??ng ch??a th???y c?? nh???ng d???u hi???u nh?? v???y. M???t trong nh???ng tin ?????n lan truy???n ??? B???c Kinh l?? c??c ?????i bi??n t???p vi??n ??ang bi??n so???n m???t cu???n s??ch v??? ???t?? t?????ng??? (sixiang/??????) c???a T???p C???n B??nh, vi???c n??y s??? ?????t ??ng ta l??n ngang h??ng v???i Mao nh?? m???t ng?????i ????ng g??p cho l?? thuy???t Marxist c???a Trung Qu???c, m???t ?????a v??? m?? ch??a c?? ng?????i k??? nhi???m n??o c???a Mao t???i gi??? nh???n l???y.

Vi???c T???p C???n B??nh ch?? t??m v??o quy???n l???c ?????t ra m???i nguy hi???m l???n cho Trung Qu???c. Kh??ng ai n??i l??n ??i???u ???? t???t h??n ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, trong b??i ph??t bi???u, ???v??? vi???c C???i c??ch h??? th???ng L??nh ?????o ?????ng v?? Nh?? n?????c,??? ????a ra v??o ng??y 18 th??ng 8 n??m 1980:

Qu?? ch?? t??m v??o quy???n l???c c?? kh??? n??ng l??m n???y ra s??? cai tr??? t??y ti???n c???a c?? nh??n v???i c??i gi?? ph???i tr??? cho l??nh ?????o t???p th???, v?? n?? l?? m???t nguy??n nh??n quan tr???ng l?? gi???i b??? m??y c??ng ch???c trong t??nh c???nh hi???n t???i??? . Ki???n th???c, kinh nghi???m v?? n??ng l?????ng c???a b???t c??? ai c??ng ?????u c?? h???n. N???u m???t ng?????i n???m gi??? qu?? nhi???u v??? tr?? c??ng m???t l??c th?? kh?? c?? th??? hi???u th???u h???t c??c v???n ????? trong c??ng vi???c c???a m??nh v?? quan tr???ng h??n, s??? ng??ng ???????ng c??c ?????ng ch?? th??ch h???p h??n n???m c??c v??? tr?? l??nh ?????o.

Ch??nh ????? tr??nh nh???ng v???n ????? n??y m?? ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? x??y d???ng m???t h??? th???ng c??c chu???n m???c ng???m theo ???? c??c l??nh ?????o cao c???p b??? gi???i h???n ch??? hai nhi???m k???, c??c u??? vi??n ban Th?????ng v??? B??? Ch??nh tr??? ph??n chia c??c vai tr?? l??nh ?????o v???i nhau, v?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o c???p cao ????a ra quy???t ?????nh c?? tham kh???o ?? ki???n v???i c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o kh??c v?? nh???ng b???c l??o th??nh ???? v??? h??u.

V???i vi???c ?????o l???n h??? th???ng c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, T???p C???n B??nh ??ang treo s??? s???ng c??n c???a ch??? ????? v??o kh??? n??ng c???a ??ng trong vi???c ch???u m???t kh???i l?????ng c??ng vi???c kh???ng l??? v?? kh??ng ph???m sai l???m l???n. ??ng d?????ng nh?? ??ang d???a c??c ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng ?????i ch??ng v?? c??c quan ch???c ngo??i nh??m th??n c???n kh??ng ???????c n??i v???i ??ng s??? th???t. ??ng ??ang c??? k??m n??n s??? ??a d???ng ng??y c??ng t??ng c???a c??c l???c l?????ng x?? h???i v?? tr?? th???c ??ang tr??n ???? ph??t tri???n m???nh h??n. ??ng c?? th??? ??ang ph?? v???, thay v?? x??y d???ng n??n s??? ?????ng thu???n trong gi???i ch??? ch???t kinh t??? v?? tr?? th???c c??ng nh?? gi???i l??nh ?????o ch??nh tr??? v??? con ???????ng ph??t tri???n c???a Trung Qu???c. V???i vi???c ch??? ?????o kh???i t??? tham nh??ng Chu V??nh Khang, c???u u??? vi??n ban Th?????ng v??? B??? Ch??nh tr??? v??? h??u, c??ng v???i thu???c h??? c???a c??c quan ch???c c???p cao ???? ngh??? h??u kh??c, ??ng ???? ph?? v??? quy t???c r???ng c??c l??nh ?????o v??? h??u s??? an to??n m???t khi r???i kh???i ch???c v???, l??m d???y l??n c??u h???i li???u ??ng s??? c?? th??? an to??n khi r???i kh???i ch???c v??? kh??ng. Khi ??ng t??ch kh???i con ???????ng c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh, ??ng c?? nguy c?? ph?? ho???i kh??? n??ng th??ch ???ng v?? kh??? n??ng ph???c h???i m?? nh???ng c???i c??ch c???a ?????ng Ti???u B??nh ???? gian kh??? t???o ra cho ch??? ????? h???u Mao.

Khi c??c th??nh vi??n c???a nh??m qu?? t???c ????? quanh T???p C???n B??nh b???c quanh c??c toa xe c???a h??? ????? b???o v??? ch??? ?????, m???t s??? c??ng d??n thu m??nh v??o vi???c s??ng b??i t??n gi??o ho???c ti??u d??ng c?? nh??n, nh???ng ng?????i kh??c th?? g???i ti???n c???a v?? con c??i ra n?????c ngo??i, v?? m???t c???m gi??c s???p x???y ra kh???ng ho???ng ??ang lan t???a kh???p x?? h???i. Kh??ng ng???c nhi??n l?? ch??? ????? c???a T???p C???n B??nh h??nh x??? nh?? th??? n?? ph???i ?????i m???t v???i m???t ??e d???a ??ang hi???n hi???n. V???i s???c m???nh v?? ngu???n l???c m?? ??ng ??i???u khi???n, s??? l?? li???u l??nh ????? d??? ??o??n r???ng n??? l???c c???ng c??? s??? cai tr??? ?????c t??i c???a ??ng s??? th???t b???i. Nh??ng n??? l???c n??y c?? nguy c?? t???o ra ch??nh cu???c kh???ng ho???ng ch??nh tr??? m?? n?? t??m c??ch ng??n ng???a./.

????y l?? b??i ??i???m c??c cu???n s??ch:

Xi Zhongxun zhuan (????????????: T???p Tr???ng Hu??n Truy???n) [Ti???u s??? T???p Tr???ng Hu??n] Ban bi??n t???p Ti???u s??? T???p Tr???ng Hu??n, B???c Kinh: Zhongyang Wenxian Chubanshe (Trung ????ng v??n hi???n xu???t b???n x??), 2 t???p, 1 283 trang (2013). 

Xi Jinping: Red China, the Next Generation (T???p C???n B??nh: Trung Qu???c ?????, th??? h??? k???) Agn??s Andresy, American University, 157 tr., $ 60,00 

Zoubutong de ???hongse diguo zhilu??? [????????????????????????????????????T???u b???t th??ng ????ch ???h???ng s???c ????? qu???c chi l?????? (??i kh??ng th??ng ch??nh l?? ???Con ???????ng ????? qu???c ????????], m???t b??i vi???t c???a L?? V?? ????ng (Li Weidong ?????????), c?? ??? www.letscorp.net/archives/56290 

China???s Future (T????ng lai c???a Trung Qu???c), David Shambaugh, Polity, 203 trang, $ 59,95.; $ 19,95 (gi???y)

???????????????-

[i] Xem, ch???ng h???n, http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2016-02-23/doc-ifxprqea5122519.shtml,http://history.sohu.com/20130830/n385376788.shtml, v?? http://news.163.com/13/1121-111/9E6V2N5E0001124J_all.html, truy c???p ng??y 10 th??ng 3 n??m 2016

[ii] Cheng Li, ???T???p C???n B??nh Jinping???s Inner Circle (Part 4: The Mishu Cluster I),??? China Leadership Monitor, s??? 46 (????ng 2015).

[iii] James Mulvenon, ???The Yuan Stops Here: T???p C???n B??nh Jinping and the ???CMC Chairman Responsibility System,???, v?? Cheng LiT???p C???n B??nh Jinping???s Inner Circle (Part 5: The Mishu Cluster II),??? China Leadership Monitor, s??? 47 (H?? 2015).

[iv] T??? Xi Dada (?????????: T???p ?????i ?????i) s??? d???ng ch??? ????????i???.??? Trong m??t s??? ti???ng ?????a ph????ng n?? c?? ngh??a l?? cha, ??ng, ho???c ch?? T???p C???n B??nh.

[v] Xem ???Xi Jinping Millionaire Relations Reveal Fortunes of Elite,??? Bloomberg News, ng??y 29 th??ng 6, 2012.

Ngu???n: Viet-studies

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