L?? Nhu??? - Th?? k?? Mao

Thứ tư - 04/09/2019 04:38
???? l?? m???t gi???y m???i m?? L?? Nhu??? (Li Rui) kh??ng th??? b??? qua. ??ng c??ng kh??ng mu???n l??m v???y. Khi Mao Tr???ch ????ng g???i m???t chi???c m??y bay t???i ????n ??ng ?????n d??? m???t cu???c g???p ri??ng l???n ?????u ti??n gi???a hai ng?????i v??o n??m 1958, ??ng m???i 41 tu???i v?? ??ang l??n nhanh. V??? tr?? th??? tr?????ng th???y l???i v?? th???y ??i???n khi???n ??ng tr??? th??nh
L?? Nhu??? - Th?? k?? Mao

L?? Nhu???: Th?? k?? Mao Tr???ch ????ng, ng?????i ph?? b??nh ?????ng CSTQ

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Ngu???n: ???Obituary: Li Rui died on February 16th???, The Economist, 02/03/2019.

Bi??n d???ch: Phan Nguy??n

???? l?? m???t gi???y m???i m?? L?? Nhu??? (Li Rui) kh??ng th??? b??? qua. ??ng c??ng kh??ng mu???n l??m v???y. Khi Mao Tr???ch ????ng g???i m???t chi???c m??y bay t???i ????n ??ng ?????n d??? m???t cu???c g???p ri??ng l???n ?????u ti??n gi???a hai ng?????i v??o n??m 1958, ??ng m???i 41 tu???i v?? ??ang l??n nhanh. V??? tr?? th??? tr?????ng th???y l???i v?? th???y ??i???n khi???n ??ng tr??? th??nh th??? tr?????ng tr??? nh???t trong ch??nh ph??? n?????c C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa c??n non tr???.

Nh??ng c??ng nh?? l???n tr?????c, s??? nghi ng??? v???n ph???ng ph???t. N??? l???c l???n tr?????c c???a ??ng nh???m tham gia c??ng Mao l?? m???t k??? ni???m chua ch??t. Sau khi v???t v??? tr?????ng chinh cu???i nh???ng n??m 1930 t??? qu?? nh?? H??? Nam t???i Di??n An, th??nh tr?? kh??ng chi???n c???a Mao, ??ng ???? b???t ?????u vi???t c??c b??i x?? lu???n tr??n t??? Gi???i ph??ng c???a c??ch m???ng.

Nh??ng nh???ng b??i vi???t n??y qu?? s???c nh???n ch??? tr??ch c??? hai phe (t??n ???Nhu?????? c???a ??ng c?? ngh??a l?? tinh nhu???, am t?????ng, v?? ??ng ???? th??? hi???n ???????c ph???m ch???t ????), n??n ??ng ???? b??? t???ng v??o t?? v?? t???i gi??n ??i???p, c???n ???ch???nh hu???n???. M??? ??ng ???? n??i v???i ??ng trong n?????c m???t khi ??ng r???i kh???i nh?? r???ng ???C???ng s???n r???t t???t, nh??ng con c?? th??? b??? gi???t???. Ho???c, r?? r??ng, ??ng ???? b??? v???t qua m???t b??n.

B??y gi??? Mao l?? ch??? t???ch n?????c, v?? ??ng ???????c g???i l??n ????? th???o lu???n v??? ?????p Tam Hi???p, m???t d??? ??n th???y ??i???n kh???ng l??? ???????c ????? xu???t x??y tr??n s??ng D????ng T???. ??ng v?? Mao kh??ng c?? chung quan ??i???m v??? d??? ??n n??y. L?? m???t k??? s?? ???????c ????o t???o b??i b???n, ??ng ???? ph???n ?????i m???t c??ch quy???t li???t, trong khi Mao trong m???t b??i th?? ???? t?????ng t?????ng m??nh ??ang b??i trong b??ng r??m c???a b??? ?????p, chi??m ng?????ng nh???ng ???b???c t?????ng ??????? v?? m???t h??? t??nh l???ng. Nh??ng, k??? l??? thay, Mao l???i th??ch c??ch ??ng tranh lu???n; v?? d?????ng nh?? c??ng th??ch con ng?????i ??ng, m???c d??, l?? m???t n??ng d??n, Mao gh??t c??c nh?? tr?? th???c. R???i Mao y??u c???u ??ng l??m th?? k?? ri??ng ph??? tr??ch c??c v???n ????? c??ng nghi???p.

Nhi???m v??? ???? ch??? k??o d??i m???t n??m. Mao kh??ng ch???p nh???n ?? ki???n b???t ?????ng n??o, kh??ng kh??ng ????i ki???m so??t t??m tr?? c???a m???i ng?????i; ??ng th?????ng t??? nh???n l?? hi???n th??n pha tr???n gi???a Marx v?? T???n Th???y Ho??ng, m???t l??nh ch??a t??n b???o gi??p th???ng nh???t Trung Qu???c th???i c??? ?????i. V??? th?? k?? m???i c???a Mao l?? ki???u ng?????i n??i th???ng, ??ng ???? s???m b??? thanh tr???ng v?? d??m ch??? tr??ch c??ng khai ?????i nh???y v???t, th???m h???a kinh t??? kh???ng l??? khi???n Trung Qu???c r??i v??o n???n ????i kh???ng khi???p. Sau ????, ??ng ph???i ??? t?? v?? b??? l??u ????y t???i v??ng n??i ph??a b???c trong su???t 20 n??m t????i ?????p nh???t c???a cu???c ?????i. Nh??ng s??? g???n g??i ng???n ng???i ???? v???i Ng?????i c???m l??i v?? ?????i h??t thu???c l?? nh?? t??u h???a ???? ???? gi??p ??ng c?? ???????c hi???u bi???t s??u s???c v??? Mao. N?? c??ng cho ??ng m???t ch??? ?????ng trong ?????ng, ????? khi th???i th??? t??nh l???ng h??n, cho ph??p ??ng khuy???n kh??ch c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o kh??c t??? b??? ph????ng ph??p Maoist. Ch???ng n??o ?????ng c??n dung d?????ng ch??? ????? chuy??n ch???, khi ch??nh ph???, l??nh ?????o v?? h??? t?? t?????ng v???n l?? m???t l???c l?????ng kh??ng b??? ki???m so??t, th?? Trung Qu???c s??? kh??ng bao gi??? c?? th??? c???i c??ch ho???c ti???n l??n m???t c??ch th???c th???.

Cu???i c??ng, ??ng ???? vi???t n??m cu???n s??ch v??? Mao, t??? khi sinh ra cho ?????n khi ch???t, bi???n m??nh th??nh m???t nh?? s??? h???c c?? gi?? tr??? trong nh???ng n??m th??ng ????. Tuy nhi??n, m???c ????ch c???a l???ch s??? l?? gi??p ng?????i ra r??t ra c??c b??i h???c v?? ?????i m???t v???i n??, nh??ng ?????ng s??? kh??ng l??m v???y. T???t c??? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o, k??? t??? ?????ng Ti???u B??nh tr??? ??i, ?????u ?????i m???t v???i c??c ?? ki???n v?? y??u c???u c???a ??ng. Ch??ng th?????ng ???????c vi???t t???i ???t???ng h??nh dinh??? c???a ??ng, m???t ph??ng l??m vi???c ken ?????y s??ch v?? n??i ??ng gi???n d??? xua ??u???i b???t c??? ai mu???n quay phim nh???ng g?? ??ng ??ang vi???t. ????i khi ch??ng ???????c th??? hi???n d?????i d???ng th?? ng???, ????i khi l?? c??c ph??t bi???u t???i c??c k??? ?????i h???i ?????ng. ??ng th???m ch?? ???? l??n ti???ng ch??? tr??ch s??? ki???n Thi??n An M??n, v??? th???m s??t v???n l?? ????? t??i c???m k???, tuy??n b??? m???t c??ch ????n gi???n nh??ng d???t kho??t r???ng c??c sinh vi??n ???? ????ng v?? l??nh ?????o ?????ng ???? sai. L?? ???m???t ?????ng vi??n k??? c???u c?? t?? t?????ng t??? do???, ??ng th?????ng g???p ph???i s??? im l???ng, ho???c ????i khi v??? ???????c ghi nh???n ????? r???i b??? ph???t l???. ??ng ???? ch???c ngo??y ngay c??? T???p C???n B??nh trong m???t b???a t???i khi nh?? l??nh ?????o t????ng lai m???i l?? b?? th?? ?????ng ???y ??? Chi???t Giang, coi T???p nh?? l?? m???t anh ch??ng h???c th???c k??m, kh??ng l?? g?? so v???i ng?????i cha ????ng ng?????ng m??? c???a T???p. ??ng kinh ho??ng khi ch???ng ki???n T???p tr??? n??n ?????c ??o??n nh?? th??? n??o m???t khi l??n n???m quy???n.

Danh s??ch nh???ng mong mu???n ch??nh tr??? c???a ??ng kh??ng d??i. ?????u ti??n l?? t??? do ng??n lu???n: ?????ng ph???i l???ng nghe m???i ng?????i. Th??? hai, t??? do xu???t b???n. ??ng ???? t???ng l?? m???t nh?? b??o ??i???u tra ????ng n???, c??ng ?????ng th???i l?? m???t nh?? v??n; nh??ng c??c cu???n s??ch v??? Mao c???a ??ng ???? b??? c???m ??? ?????i l???c, v?? t???p ch?? Vi??m Ho??ng Xu??n Thu (Yanhuang Chunqiu) m?? ??ng ???ng h??? m???nh m??? trong vi???c ????nh gi?? l???i m???t c??ch kh??ng ch??nh th???c l???ch s??? Trung Qu???c, ???? b??? ????nh b???n v?? v??? t???ng bi??n t???p th?? b??? c??ch ch???c. Quan tr???ng nh???t l?? ??ng t??m ki???m n???n cai tr??? d???a theo hi???n ph??p v?? d??n ch???, trong ???? ?????ng ch??? l?? m???t ?????ng x?? h???i theo phong c??ch T??y ??u. ?? ngh?? ???? qu?? mang t??nh l???t ?????, qu?? phi-Trung Qu???c, n??n ?????n n??m 2013 n?? ???? ch??nh th???c b??? l??n ??n, d?? m???t c??ch b?? m???t. Nh??ng m???t ng?????i ????n ??ng ???? tr???i qua ch??n n??m c?? ?????c v?? ?? ki???n ph???n bi???n c???a m??nh, bi???t luy???n kh?? c??ng v?? vi???t 400 b??i th?? b???ng thu???c t??m s??t tr??ng b??n l??? c??c tr?????c t??c c???a Marx s??? kh??ng bao gi??? b??? ??e d???a b???i ??i???u ????. ????ng nh?? t??n g???i c???a m??nh, ??ng v???n s???c s???o, gai nh???n.

M??u ?????

V???n l?? nh???ng c??u h???i ????, c???n ph???i l??m g?? v???i ?????ng C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c, v?? ?????ng s??? tr??? th??nh nh?? th??? n??o? Nh???ng c??u h???i ???? v???n th?????ng tr???c tr??n mi???ng ??ng ngay c??? trong nh???ng ng??y cu???i c??ng, khi ??ng n???m trong m???t b???nh vi???n h???ng nh???t d??nh ri??ng cho c??c quan ch???c c???a ?????ng. B???i ??ng ch??a bao gi??? b??? ?????ng, hay th???m ch?? l?? ngh?? t???i ??i???u ????. ?????ng l?? cu???c s???ng c???a ??ng, k??? t??? khi ??ng v??o ?????ng m???t c??ch b?? m???t v??o n??m 1937 khi ??ng m???i 20; k??? t??? khi c??n l?? sinh vi??n v?? b??? Qu???c d??n ?????ng b??? t?? v?? h??o h???c d??i v??o tay m???i ng?????i nh???ng cu???n s??ch gi??o khoa v??? ch??? ngh??a Marx. Mao ???? tr???c xu???t ??ng, v??, nh??n danh ?????ng, ph?? h???y cu???c h??n nh??n ?????u ti??n c???a ??ng v?? g???n nh?? gi???t ch???t ??ng; nh??ng c??i ?????ng t?? duy t???p th??? v???i nh???ng cu???n s??ch ????? v?? kh??n qu??ng ????? ???? kh??ng ch??? l?? m???t t??? ch???c m?? ??ng v???i v??ng ????n nh???n trong t?? c??ch m???t thanh ni??n tr??? y??u n?????c, kh???n thi???t mu???n ????a Trung Qu???c tho??t kh???i c??c l??nh ch??a v?? qu??n x??m l?????c Nh???t B???n. Khi ??ng ???????c ph???c h???i d?????i th???i ?????ng Ti???u B??nh v??o nh???ng n??m 1980, ??ng hy v???ng s??? c?? m???t ch??nh ?????ng c???a t??nh huynh ?????, c??ng b???ng x?? h???i, c??ng nh?? t??? do. Nh??ng thay v??o ????, nh?? ??ng ???? vi???t trong m???t b??i th??, ??ng ch??? t??m th???y s??? ki??u ng???o, thi???u hi???u bi???t, v?? li??m s???, v?? lu???t ph??p. ??ng m???c ????? ????? ??? nh?? ch??? d???u c???a l??ng trung th??nh ??? nh??ng ??ng ???? tr??? n??n ch??n gh??t ch??nh m??u ????? ????. M???i th??? ?????u ?????, ?????, v?? ?????.

M??u ????? s??? l?? m??u c???a l?? c??? ph??? tr??n quan t??i ??ng m???t khi ??ng n???m trong ????. ??i???u ????, c??ng nh?? vi???c ??ng ???????c ch??n c???t t???i Ngh??a trang B??t B???o S??n d??nh cho c??c nh?? c??ch m???ng ??? B???c Kinh, l?? nh???ng ?????c quy???n d??nh cho ??ng v???i t?? c??ch l?? m???t ?????ng vi??n l??o th??nh. Khi ???????c h???i li???u ??ng c?? mu???n ??i???u ???? kh??ng, ??ng ch??? n??i r???ng ??ng mu???n ???????c ch??n c???t c??ng b??? m??? ??ng ??? H??? Nam. ??ng c???m th???y c?? l???i v?? ???? kh??ng th??? ch??m s??c ???????c m??? m??nh khi b?? v??? gi??. N?? khi???n ??ng th??? d??i khi nh??? l???i nh???ng l???i ????n gi???n x??a kia c???a b??, r???ng ???C???ng s???n r???t t???t???.

????m tang ??ng di???n ra ????ng nh?? ?????ng mu???n. Kh??ng c?? c?? quan truy???n th??ng n??o ???????c ph??p ????a tin. ??ng T???p, gi??? ???? g??? ???????c c??i gai kh?? ch???u nh???t c???a m??nh, ???? g???i t???i ????m tang ??ng m???t v??ng hoa ?????p.
 

T????ng lai ????i Loan sau b???a t???i gi???a T???p v?? M??

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maxi

Ngu???n: Chris Patten, ???A Chinese Dinner for Two???, Project Syndicate, 10/11/2015.

Bi??n d???ch: Tr???n V??n Th???ng | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p

M???t l?????ng n?????c l???n ???? ch???y qua eo bi???n ????i Loan trong 70 n??m qua k??? t??? khi nh?? l??nh ?????o C???ng s???n Trung Qu???c l?? Mao Tr???ch ????ng g???p g??? T?????ng Gi???i Th???ch ??? th??? l??nh Qu???c D??n ?????ng ?????i l???p. Do ???? cu???c g???p g???n ????y ??? Singapore gi???a nh???ng ng?????i k??? th???a c???a h???: Ch??? t???ch C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa T???p C???n B??nh v?? ng?????i ?????ng nhi???m ????i Loan M?? Anh C???u c?? th??? ????ng ???????c mi??u t??? l?? m???t s??? ki???n mang t??nh l???ch s???.

Cu???c ????m ph??n ngo???i giao di???n ra tr?????c cu???c g???p n??y r???t ph???c t???p, th???m ch?? bao g???m c??? vi???c ai n??n tr??? ti???n cho b???a t???i (h??? ???? chia ti???n h??a ????n). Tuy nhi??n, sau cu???c g???p ng???n ?????ng sau nh???ng c??nh c???a kh??p k??n ???? kh??ng c?? m???t tuy??n b??? chung n??o ???????c ????a ra v?? ch??? c?? m???t b??i t?????ng thu???t ???????c r?? so??t k??? l?????ng v??? cu???c g???p ???????c ph??t tr??n c??c ph????ng ti???n truy???n th??ng nh?? n?????c c???a Trung Qu???c. V???y t???i sao cu???c g???p n??y di???n ra v?? n?? b??o tr?????c ??i???u g???

K??? t??? khi nh???ng ng?????i C???ng s???n c???a ??ng Mao gi??nh chi???n th???ng trong cu???c n???i chi???n (cu???c chi???n m?? cu???c g???p cu???i c??ng gi???a hai ?????ng n??m 1945 n??? l???c ng??n ch???n) v?? l???c l?????ng Qu???c d??n ?????ng c???a T?????ng Gi???i Th???ch r??t v??? ????i Loan, quan h??? gi???a hai b??n v???n ??m ??? n??ng m?? ch??a bao gi??? th???c s??? b???t l???a. M???i quan h??? t???t ?????p gi???a Hoa K??? v?? gi???i l??nh ?????o Qu???c d??n ?????ng kh??ng h??? m???t ??i, v?? Hoa K??? ???? trao cho ????i Loan nh???ng ?????m b???o v??? m???t qu??n s??? nh???m ng??n c???n Trung Qu???c c??? g???ng th???ng nh???t h??n ?????o n??y v???i ?????i l???c b???ng v?? l???c.

C??c cu???c phi??u l??u c???a ??ng Mao tr??n b??n ?????o Tri???u Ti??n nh???m ???ng h??? B???c Tri???u Ti??n ch???ng Nam Tri???u Ti??n v?? c??c ?????ng minh ph????ng T??y c???a n?? ???? gi??p c???ng c??? tr???c quan h??? Washington ??? ????i B???c; v?? nh??? m???t s??? ?????ng th??i ngo???i giao kh??o l??o, tr???c quan h??? n??y ???? ti???p t???c t???n t???i b???t ch???p ch??nh s??ch c???i thi???n quan h??? v???i Trung Qu???c v??o ?????u nh???ng n??m 1970 c???a T???ng th???ng M??? Richard Nixon. Hoa K??? ???? c??ng nh???n nh???ng ng?????i c???ng s???n ??? B???c Kinh l?? ch??nh ph??? h???p ph??p c???a Trung Qu???c, ?????ng th???i gi??p duy tr?? ????i Loan trong m???t t??nh tr???ng l???p l???ng v??? ch??? quy???n v?? ?????a v??? m???t qu???c gia ?????c l???p. H??n ?????o n??y v???n h??nh c??ng vi???c ri??ng c???a m??nh, tr??? th??nh m???t n???n d??n ch??? n??ng ?????ng trong nh???ng n??m 1980, nh??ng kh??ng bao gi??? nh???t quy???t ????i ???????c qu???c t??? c??ng nh???n l?? m???t nh?? n?????c c?? ch??? quy???n ?????y ?????.

V???i nh???ng nh?? c???m quy???n c???a Trung Qu???c, ????i Loan l?? m???t ???t???nh n???i lo???n??? v?? Trung Qu???c ki??n quy???t kh??ng quan h??? ngo???i giao v???i nh???ng th??nh vi??n c???a c???ng ?????ng qu???c t??? c??? g???ng coi ????i Loan l?? m???t qu???c gia ?????c l???p. Tuy nhi??n, trong qu?? tr??nh ???? c??ng c?? m???t s??? c??ng nh???n tr??n th???c ti???n, ?????c bi???t l?? v??? m???t kinh t???.

Ng?????i ta nh??? v??? n??m 1989 v?? c??c v??? th???m s??t ??? Qu???ng tr?????ng Thi??n An M??n. Nh??ng v??o th??ng N??m v?? th??ng S??u, c??c b??? tr?????ng trong ???? c?? t??i ???? bay t???i B???c Kinh ????? tham d??? m???t s??? ki???n m?? d?????ng nh?? ?????i v???i t???t c??? ch??ng t??i l?? m???t c?? h???i t??ch c???c v?? th???c s??? mang t??nh l???ch s???. Trung Qu???c ???? l???n ?????u ti??n cho ph??p ????i Loan tham d??? cu???c h???p th?????ng ni??n c???a Ban Qu???n tr??? Ng??n h??ng Ph??t tri???n Ch??u ?? (ADB), mi???n l?? n?? ???????c g???i b???ng c??i t??n ???????i B???c, Trung Qu???c???.

V??i n??m sau, khi t??i l?? m???t ???y vi??n c???a Li??n minh ch??u ??u (EU), sau khi ????m ph??n vi???c gia nh???p T??? ch???c Th????ng m???i Th??? gi???i (WTO) c???a c??? C???ng h??a Nh??n d??n Trung Hoa v?? ????i Loan, ch??ng t??i mu???n thi???t l???p m???t v??n ph??ng EU t???i ????i B???c ????? theo d??i s??? tu??n th??? c??c quy t???c WTO c???a h??n ?????o n??y. Tr?????c khi l??m nh?? v???y, t??i ???? nh???n m???nh v???i ch??nh ph??? Trung Qu???c r???ng nh???ng g?? ch??ng t??i ??ang l??m ch??? l?? m??? m???t c?? quan th????ng m???i ch??? kh??ng ph???i l?? m???t ?????i s??? qu??n.

?????i v???i c??? Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan, ti???n c?? s???c h??t, v?? n???n kinh t??? c???a hai b??? hi???n nay ???????c li??n k???t ch???t ch???, v???i nhi???u ng?????i ????i Loan s???ng v?? l??m vi???c t???i Trung Qu???c (?????c bi???t ??? khu v???c Th?????ng H???i) v?? c??c kho???n ?????u t?? r???t l???n c???a ????i Loan v??o ng??nh ch??? t???o c???a Trung Qu???c. Foxconn c???a ????i Loan, nh?? s???n xu???t thi???t b??? ??i???n t??? l???n nh???t th??? gi???i (bao g???m c??c thi???t b??? Blackberry, iPhone, v?? Kindle), c?? 12 nh?? m??y ??? Trung Qu???c, trong ???? m???t nh?? m??y ??? Th??m Quy???n s??? d???ng h??ng tr??m ng??n lao ?????ng.

Tuy nhi??n, m???c d?? n???n ch??nh tr??? ????i Loan b??? chi ph???i m???t c??ch t??? nhi??n b???i m???i quan h??? c???a h??n ?????o n??y v???i ?????i l???c, th???c t??? quan h??? th????ng m???i s??u s???c gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan ???? kh??ng c?? s??? t????ng ???ng v??? m???t ngo???i giao. Qu???c D??n ?????ng mu???n c???i thi???n quan h??? m?? kh??ng t??? b??? s??? ?????c l???p c???a ????i Loan. ?????i th??? c???a n??, ?????ng D??n Ti???n, l???i mu???n ?????t ???????c m???t t?? th??? t??? ch??? h??n, m???c d?? kh??? n??ng ?????ng n??y c?? th???c s??? mu???n b???t c??? ??i???u g?? th???c ch???t t???i m???c l??m Trung Qu???c t???c gi???n v???n l?? kh??ng ch???c ch???n.

M???t cu???c kh???o s??t ba n??m tr?????c ????y cho th???y r???ng 80% trong t???ng s??? 25 tri???u ng?????i d??n ????i Loan s??? ???ng h??? m???t tuy??n b??? ?????c l???p ch??nh th???c, mi???n l?? ??i???u n??y kh??ng d???n ?????n m???t cu???c x??m l?????c c???a Trung Qu???c. ???? l?? m???t t??? l??? kh?? l???n. Trung Qu???c th?????ng xuy??n c???nh b??o ????i Loan kh??ng ???????c ti???n h??nh b???t k??? h??nh ?????ng n??o li???u l??nh nh?? v???y, v?? Hoa K??? c??ng g??y s???c ??p l??n c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o c???a h??n ?????o b???t c??? khi n??o h??? c?? v??? tr??? n??n qu?? xem th?????ng ?????i l???c.

D?????ng nh?? c?? hai l?? do cho cu???c g???p gi???a ??ng T???p v?? ??ng M??. ?????u ti??n, h??? lo l???ng r???ng Qu???c D??n ?????ng, v???n ???? th???t b???i th???m h???i trong c??c cu???c b???u c??? ?????a ph????ng n??m ngo??i, s??? ti???p t???c th???t b???i trong cu???c t???ng tuy???n c??? v??o th??ng M???t (n??m 2016). C??? hai hy v???ng r???ng vi???c th??? hi???n Trung Qu???c v?? ????i Loan c?? th??? h??a thu???n v???i nhau m?? kh??ng g???p qu?? nhi???u r???c r???i s??? mang l???i l???i th??? b???u c??? cho Qu???c d??n ?????ng.

Ngo??i ra, t???i th???i ??i???m khi m?? n???n kinh t??? Trung Qu???c ??ang ph??t tri???n ch???m l???i v?? nh???ng c??ng th???ng trong khu v???c ??ang t??ng l??n do Trung Qu???c ??ang khoa tr????ng c?? b???p t???i Bi???n ????ng v?? Bi???n Hoa ????ng, ??ng T???p c?? v??? h??o h???c mu???n th??? hi???n tinh th???n y??u chu???ng h??a b??nh c???a m??nh. Sau khi l??m nhi???u n?????c l??ng gi???ng ch??? kh??ng ch??? ng?????i M??? b???t an, chuy???n th??m c???a ??ng ?????n Vi???t Nam v?? chuy???n th??m c???a Th??? t?????ng L?? Kh???c C?????ng t???i H??n Qu???c l?? m???t ph???n t????ng t??? v???i ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao ?????n t???i??? v???i ??ng M??.

Nh???ng d??? ?????nh th???c s??? v?? v??? d??i h???n c???a Trung Qu???c kh??ng ho??n to??n r?? r??ng, v?? c?? l??? ???? l?? m???t ph???n trong chi???n l?????c c???a n?????c n??y: Nh???ng t??n hi???u kh??ng r?? r??ng ????ng m???t vai tr?? quan tr???ng trong ngo???i giao. Nh??ng c?? hai ??i???u r?? r??ng.

Tr?????c h???t, s??ng ki???n c???a ??ng T???p th??? hi???n m???c ????? m?? ??ng chi ph???i n???n ch??nh tr??? Trung Qu???c. M???t nh?? l??nh ?????o y???u h??n c?? th??? ???? kh??ng ti???n h??nh m???t b?????c ??i nhi???u tham v???ng nh?? v???y, ??i???u cho th???y m???t s??? ?????t ph?? kh???i t?? duy ch??nh th???ng c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n tr?????c ????y.

Th??? hai, vi???c t??i th???ng nh???t h??a b??nh gi???a ?????i l???c v?? ????i Loan v???n s??? kh??ng x???y ra tr??? phi di???n ra tr??n c?? s??? ???m???t nh?? n?????c, hai ch??? ???????? nh?? Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c h???a h???n. Tuy nhi??n, ng?????i ????i Loan kh??ng th??? an t??m tr?????c nh???ng ??i???u m?? h??? ch???ng ki???n ng??y nay ??? H???ng K??ng, n??i t???ng ???????c h???a h???n ??i???u t????ng t??? tr?????c khi tr??? v??? v???i Trung Qu???c ?????i l???c n??m 1997.

H??? th???ng c???a ????i Loan l?? d??n ch???, c??n c???a Trung Qu???c th?? kh??ng nh?? v???y. ??i???u m?? tr?????ng h???p c???a H???ng K??ng cho th???y l?? Trung Qu???c s??? ph???i ??p ????i Loan t??? b??? d??n ch??? v?? ph??p quy???n ??? ho???c t??? m??nh theo ??u???i c??? hai ??i???u ???? ??? tr?????c khi n?????c n??y c?? th??? ch??o ????n ???t???nh n???i lo???n??? c???a m??nh tr??? v??? v???i ?????i gia ????nh.

Chris Patten, Th???ng ?????c cu???i c??ng c???a Anh t???i H???ng K??ng v?? l?? c???u ???y vi??n c???a EU v??? ?????i ngo???i, l?? Hi???u tr?????ng c???a ?????i h???c Oxford.

Quan h??? Vi???t-M???: ?? ngh??a ch??nh tr??? c???a v?? kh?? s??t th????ng

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T??c gi???: Tr????ng-Minh V?? & Ng?? Di L??n

Qu?? tr??nh thi???t l???p m???i quan h??? ?????i t??c qu??n s??? ???ng???m??? gi???a Vi???t Nam v?? M??? ???? ?????t ???????c m???t b?????c ti???n quan tr???ng. Trong chuy???n th??m Washington m???i ????y c???a Ph?? th??? t?????ng Ph???m B??nh Minh, ch??nh ph??? Hoa K??? cu???i c??ng ???? ?????ng ?? g??? b??? m???t ph???n l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam v?? l?? do an ninh h??ng h???i.

B?????c ti???n n??y cho th???y r???ng c??? hai b??n ???? v?????t qua nhi???u r??o c???n trong m???i quan h??? song ph????ng. L??u nay M??? lu??n cho r???ng vi???c g??? b??? l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam l?? m???t v???n ????? nh???y c???m b???i s??? kh??c bi???t trong h??? th???ng gi?? tr??? v?? ch??nh tr??? gi???a hai b??n. S??? d?? d???t trong vi???c g??? b??? l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? ???????c th??? hi???n m???t c??ch r?? r??ng qua nhi???u ti???ng n??i b??y t??? quan ng???i r???ng nh???ng v?? kh?? n??y s??? ???????c s??? d???ng v???i m???c ????ch ????n ??p nh???ng ng?????i ???b???t ?????ng ch??nh ki???n???.

Nh???ng ?? ki???n nh?? v???y ??ang ???????c ???ng h??? v?? v???n ?????ng b???i nh???ng ng?????i Vi???t ??? M???, nh???ng ng?????i lu??n nh???n m???nh r???ng vi???c g??? b??? l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam c???n ??i k??m v???i c???i c??ch ch??nh tr???. M???c d?? v???y, c??c ch??nh tr??? gia M??? ???? ph???n ???ng m???t c??ch d?? d???t tr?????c nh???ng ????? xu???t n??y. ??? m???t ch???ng m???c n??o ???? ???? t???n t???i s??? nh???t tr?? ng???m gi???a hai b??n r???ng vi???c g??? b??? l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam l?? c???n thi???t, nh?? m???t ph???n ???ng chi???n l?????c tr?????c nh???ng h??nh ?????ng c???ng r???n g???n ????y c???a Trung Qu???c tr??n bi???n ????ng.

C??n trong n???i b??? Vi???t Nam, b???t ?????u c?? nhi???u ti???ng n??i ch??? tr??ch ch??nh s??ch qu???c ph??ng ???3 kh??ng??? c???a n?????c n??y (bao g???m kh??ng lien minh qu??n s??? v???i b???t k??? n?????c n??o, kh??ng cho b???t c??? n?????c n??o ?????t c??n c??? qu??n s??? ??? Vi???t Nam v?? kh??ng d???a v??o n?????c n??y ????? ch???ng n?????c kia). Nh???ng ?? ki???n ph???n bi???n cho r???ng c??ch ti???p c???n n??y kh??ng c??n h???u hi???u trong vi???c gi??p b???o v??? l???i ??ch qu???c gia v?? ch??? quy???n, nh???t l?? sau khi Trung Qu???c ????a gi??n khoan HD-981 v??o trong khu v???c ?????c quy???n kinh t??? c???a Vi???t Nam.

B???t ch???p nh???ng s??? kh??c bi???t nh???t ?????nh v??? l???p lu???n, nh???ng ti???ng n??i n??y ???ng h??? vi???c Vi???t Nam x??ch l???i g???n M??? h??n. T??? g??c nh??n c???a c??c chi???n l?????c gia Vi???t Nam, ch??? c?? M??? m???i c?? th??? g??y thay ?????i t??nh to??n c???a Trung Qu???c ??? bi???n ????ng, v?? ng??n ch???n vi???c n?????c n??y s??? d???ng v?? l???c ????? thay ?????i hi???n tr???ng. Trong khi ????, nh???n ???????c s??? h???u thu???n c???a m???t c?????ng qu???c v??? s???c m???nh qu??n s??? ?????ng ngh??a v???i vi???c c??n c??n quy???n l???c ???????c thay ?????i theo chi???u h?????ng c?? l???i cho H?? N???i.

Trong chuy???n th??m M??? v???a qua, Ph?? th??? t?????ng Ph???m B??nh Minh ???? li??n ti???p kh???ng ?????nh r???ng n??? l???c t??m ki???m v?? kh?? c???a M??? l?? m???t chuy???n h???t s???c ???b??nh th?????ng??? v?? kh??ng nh???m t???i b???t k?? ???n?????c th??? ba n??o???. Tuy nhi??n, r?? r??ng c??? H?? N???i l???n Washington ??ang theo ??u???i m???t cu???c ch??i c??n b???ng quy???n l???c.

Tuy ???????c xem l?? m???t b?????c ?????t ph?? quan tr???ng, v?? kh?? c???a M??? s??? kh?? l??ng l???t ng?????c th??? c??? trong m???i quan h??? tay ba Trung-Vi???t-M??? n??i chung v?? trong cu???c tranh ch???p ??? bi???n ????ng n??i ri??ng. ?????u ti??n, k??? c??? M??? c?? g??? b??? to??n b??? l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam th?? ??i???u n??y c??ng kh??ng gi??p thay ?????i c??n c??n quy???n l???c gi???a Trung Qu???c v?? Vi???t Nam m???t c??ch ????ng k???.

D?? th??? n??o ??i n???a, h???i qu??n Trung Qu???c v???n s??? ??p ?????o h???i qu??n Vi???t Nam. H???m ?????i c???a Trung Qu???c c??ng hi???n ?????i v?? ???????c trang b??? t???t h??n so v???i Vi???t Nam. V?? kh?? c???a M??? c??n r???t ?????t ti???n, H?? N???i kh?? l??ng c?? th??? mua ????? v?? kh?? c???a M??? ????? thay ?????i c???u tr??c qu??n ?????i hi???n nay m???t c??ch ????ng k??? v???i hi v???ng r??n ??e Trung Qu???c. K??? c??? trong tr?????ng h???p Vi???t Nam c?? th??? mua m???t l?????ng r???t l???n v?? kh?? c???a M???, Qu??n ?????i Nh??n D??n Vi???t Nam c??ng s??? m???t nhi???u n??m ????? t??ch h???p v?? kh?? M??? v??o trong m???t h??? th???ng qu??n ?????i m?? trong ???? v?? kh?? c???a Nga ???? ??p ?????o t??? tr?????c ?????n gi???.

Quan tr???ng h??n n???a, v???n c??n t???n ?????ng m???t s??? s??? kh??c bi???t v?? c??ch hi???u kh??c nhau gi???a hai n?????c trong l??nh v???c h???p t??c qu???c ph??ng. V??? ph??a m??nh, Vi???t Nam mu???n h???p t??c qu???c ph??ng kh??ng ch??? gi???i h???n trong vi???c mua b??n v?? kh??. L?? t?????ng ?????i v???i Vi???t Nam l?? h???i qu??n hai n?????c s??? tu???n tra chung tr??n bi???n v?? M??? s??? th??? hi???n cam k???t b???o v??? an ninh h??ng h???i v?? ???n ?????nh tr??n bi???n ????ng m???t c??ch m???nh m??? h??n trong tr?????ng h???p Trung Qu???c ti???p t???c hung h??ng. M???t s??? b???o ?????m ???ng???m??? nh??ng ch???n ch???n r???ng M??? s??? gi??p ????? v?? b???o v??? Vi???t Nam trong tr?????ng h???p Trung Qu???c t???n c??ng tr?????c v???n ph?? h???p v???i ch??nh s??ch qu???c ph??ng ???3 kh??ng??? hi???n t???i.

M???c d?? v???y, ????y l?? nh???ng tho??? thu???n m?? M??? kh?? l??ng ?????ng ??, b???i nhi???u l?? do trong ???? c?? vi???c c???t gi???m ng??n s??ch qu???c ph??ng, c??c cam k???t qu??n s??? c???a M??? ??? c??c n??i kh??c c??ng nh?? vi???c M??? mu???n tr??nh ?????i ?????u qu?? tr???c ti???p v???i Trung Qu???c. Th???c t??? h??n th?? Vi???t Nam hi v???ng r???ng M??? s??? s???m h??? tr??? Vi???t Nam trong vi???c tu???n tra tr??n bi???n. ??i???u n??y l?? gi???i nh???ng cu???c th???o lu???n tr?????c th???m chuy???n th??m c???a ??ng John Kerry v??o th??ng 7 v???a qua (2014), nh?? m???t ngu???n tin ngo???i giao t??? H?? N???i cho hay. Cho ?????n nay ch??a c?? tho??? thu???n hay hi???p ?????nh n??o nh?? v???y ???????c k?? k???t. Nh??ng ????y ch???c ch???n s??? l?? m???t trong nh???ng ??u ti??n h??ng ?????u c???a H?? N???i.

Kh??ng th??? ph??? nh???n r???ng vi???c g??? b??? m???t ph???n l???nh c???m b??n v?? kh?? s??t th????ng cho Vi???t Nam l?? m???t b?????c kh???i ?????u quan tr???ng cho s??? gia t??ng h???p t??c qu???c ph??ng gi???a Vi???t Nam v?? M???. Tuy v???y, ??i???u n??y v???n ch??a tho??? m??n ???????c s??? tr??ng ?????i t??? c??? hai ph??a, nh???t l?? trong vi???c ki???m ch??? nh???ng tham v???ng c???a Trung Qu???c ??? bi???n ????ng. Kh??ng l???t ng?????c th??? c??? qu??n s???, b?????c ?????t ph?? v???a qua v???n c?? ?? ngh??a bi???u tr??ng v?? ch??nh tr??? h???t s???c quan tr???ng, v?? l?? m???t gi???i ph??p t???m ch???p nh???n ???????c ?????i v???i c??? hai b??n trong th???i ??i???m hi???n t???i.

Tr????ng-Minh V?? l?? gi???ng vi??n Khoa Quan h??? Qu???c t???, ?????i h???c Khoa h???c X?? h???i v?? Nh??n v??n, TP. H??? Ch?? Minh. Ng?? Di L??n nghi??n c???u v??? ch??nh s??ch ngo???i giao, hi???n ??ang theo h???c t???i ?????i h???c Maastricht (H?? Lan). Quan ??i???m trong b??i l?? quan ??i???m ri??ng c???a c??c t??c gi???.

M???t phi??n b???n ti???ng Anh c???a b??i vi???t ???? ???????c ????ng tr??n The Diplomat.

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