L???ch s??? Vi???t Nam th???i t??? ch???:

Thứ ba - 16/07/2019 21:23
L??nh th??? n?????c ?????i C??? Vi???t th???i Vua L?? ?????i H??nh v??? ph??a b???c r???ng h??n th???i nh?? L??; do b???i d?????i th???i Vua L?? Nh??n T??ng, hai T?? tr?????ng N??ng T??n ????n, N??ng Tr?? H???i t???i bi??n gi???i qui ph??? nh?? T???ng, n???p cho T???ng hai ?????ng V???t D????ng, V???t ??c, nay thu???c T??nh T??y, t???nh Qu???ng T??y . B??? s??? T???c T?? Tr??? Tr?????ng Bi??n c???a L?? ????o ?????i T???ng ch??p nh?? sau:
L???ch s??? Vi???t Nam th???i t??? ch???:
L???ch s??? Vi???t Nam th???i t??? ch???: X?? h???i n?????c ta d?????i th???i vua L?? ?????i H??nh
T??c gi???: H??? B???ch Th???o
Ni??n hi???u: Thi??n Ph??c: 980-988; H??ng Th???ng: 989-993; ???ng Thi??n 994-1005
L??nh th??? n?????c ?????i C??? Vi???t th???i Vua L?? ?????i H??nh v??? ph??a b???c r???ng h??n th???i nh?? L??; do b???i d?????i th???i Vua L?? Nh??n T??ng, hai T?? tr?????ng N??ng T??n ????n, N??ng Tr?? H???i t???i bi??n gi???i qui ph??? nh?? T???ng, n???p cho T???ng hai ?????ng V???t D????ng, V???t ??c, nay thu???c T??nh T??y, t???nh Qu???ng T??y . B??? s??? T???c T?? Tr??? Tr?????ng Bi??n c???a L?? ????o ?????i T???ng ch??p nh?? sau:
Tr?????ng Bi??n, quy???n 349. N??m Nguy??n Phong th??? 7 [1084]
?????????.. Ty Kinh L?????c H??ng B???n c??ng t??u r???ng:
???V??o th???i Gia H???u [1056-1059], b???n N??ng T??n ????n ??em ?????ng V???t ??c qui ph???, ban t??n Thu???n An ch??u; th???i Tr??? B??nh [1064-1067]N??ng Tr?? H???i ??em ?????ng V???t D????ng qui ph???, ban t??n l??  Qui H??a ch??u.???[1]
V??? ph??a nam, qua m???y l???n giao tranh v???i Chi??m Th??nh; l??nh th??? n?????c ta n???i r???ng ra ?????n t???nh Qu???ng B??nh. ?????i Vi???t S??? K?? To??n Th?? ghi v??o n??m H??ng Th???ng th??? 4 [992], cho Chi??m Th??nh nh???n ng?????i t??? ch??u ?????a L?? [huy???n L??? Ninh, Qu???ng B??nh][2]  ????a v??? ch??u ?? L??:[3]
???M??a h???, th??ng 6, cho ng?????i Chi??m Th??nh nh???n l??nh h??n 360 ng?????i ??? th??nh c?? ch??u ??i??? L?? ??em v??? ch??u ?? L????? To??n Th??, B???n k???, quy???n 1.
????? ????p ???ng nhu c???u giao th??ng t??? b???c ch?? nam, c??ng trong n??m 992, nh?? vua cho m??? ???????ng t??? c???a bi???n Nam Gi???i [ch??? gi??p gi???i hai huy???n Can L???c v?? Th???ch H?? t???nh H?? T??nh] ?????n ch??u ?????a L??:
???Mu?? thu, th??ng 8, sai Ph??? qu???c Ng?? T??? An ??em 3 v???n ng?????i ??i m??? ???????ng b??? t??? c???a bi???n Nam Gi???i ?????n Ch??u ??i??? L????? To??n Th??, B???n k???, quy???n 1.
Tr?????c ???? l??c ??i ????nh Chi??m Th??nh, nh???m tr??nh ???????ng bi???n kh??ng an to??n v?? s??ng gi??; n??m 983 cho ????o k??nh d???c theo ???????ng bi???n t???nh Thanh H??a t??? n??i ?????ng C??? [s??ng M??] ?????n s??ng B?? H??a [T??nh Gia]:[4]
???Qu?? M??i, /Thi??n Ph??c/ n??m th??? 4[ 983 ],??? K??nh m???i tr??n ???????ng bi???n l??m xong. Khi vua ??i ????nh Chi??m Th??nh, qua n??i ?????ng C??? ?????n s??ng B?? H??a, ???????ng n??i hi???m tr??? kh?? ??i, ng?????i ng???a m???i m???t, ???????ng bi???n th?? s??ng to kh?? ??i l???i, b??n sai ng?????i ????o k??nh. ?????n ????y ????o xong, thuy???n b?? ??i l???i ?????u ???????c thu???n ti???n.??? To??n Th??, B???n K???, quy???n 1.
N??m 1003 nh?? Vua l???i cho ????o k??nh ??a C??i, nay l?? x?? H????ng C??i thu???c huy???n H??ng Nguy??n t???nh Ngh??? An ????? n???i con k??nh t??? Thanh H??a ?????n s??ng Lam:
???Qu?? M??o, /???ng Thi??n/ n??m th??? 10 /1003. Vua ??i Hoan Ch??u, v??t kinh ??a C??i  th???ng ?????n T?? C???ng tr?????ng ??? ??m Ch??u.??? To??n Th??, B???n k???, quy???n 1.
D?????i th???i Vua L?? ?????i H??nh c?? nh???ng cu???c n???i d???y b???i c??c quan l???i ?????a ph????ng ho???c d??n t???c mi???n n??i. Ph???n l???n x???y ra t???i v??ng Thanh Ngh???, n??i Chi??m Th??nh th?????ng mang qu??n ra v??o c?????p ph??, khi???n l??ng ng?????i ch??a ???n ?????nh. T??nh h??nh c?? l??c tr???m tr???ng, nh?? Vua ph???i th??n chinh ??i ????nh d???p, chi???u theo th???i gian, xin li???t k??:
V??o n??m H??ng Th???ng th??? nh???t [989], vi??n Qu???n gi??p D????ng Ti???n L???c xui d??n ch??u Hoan [Ngh??? An] v?? ch??u ??i [Thanh H??a] n???i l??n l??m ph???n, C????ng M???c[5] ghi nh?? sau:
???Ti???n L???c, l??m ch???c Qu???n gi??p, v??ng m???nh ??i thu thu??? ??? ch??u Hoan v?? ch??u ??i. Nh??n ????, L???c c???m ?????u hai ch??u ???y n???i l??n l??m ph???n, r???i xin theo v??? v???i n?????c Chi??m Th??nh; nh??ng ng?????i Chi??m Th??nh kh??ng nh???n. Nh?? vua ??em qu??n ??i ????nh b???t gi???t ???????c Ti???n L???c v?? gi???t ng?????i hai ch??u ???y kh??ng bi???t bao nhi??u m?? k???.???
Th??ng 7, n??m ???ng Thi??n th??? 4 [997], nh?? Vua ??i ????nh gi???c ??? ????? ?????ng,[6] v??ng c??n c??? c???a t?????ng ????? C???nh Th???c th???i Th???p Nh??? S??? Qu??n, b???t ???????c ????? ?????ng ??em v???.
N??m th??? 6 [999] Vua th??n ??i ????nh H?? ?????ng, thu???c huy???n Th???ch Th??nh, t???nh Thanh H??a; t???t c??? b???n m????i ch??n ?????ng trong v??ng ?????u d???p y??n c???.
N??m th??? 7 [1000], b???n Tr???nh H??ng ??? Phong Ch??u [t???nh V??nh Ph??c] l??m lo???n. Nh?? vua ??i???u khi???n qu??n s?? ??i ????nh. Tr???nh H??ng ch???y sang n??i T???n Vi??n t???nh S??n T??y.
N??m th??? 8 [1001],Vua c??ng Vua c?? nh?? ??inh t???c ??inh To??n mang qu??n ????nh b??? t???c C??? Long[7] t???i Thanh H??a, ??inh To??n t??? tr???n, C????ng M???c[8] ch??p nh?? sau:
???Nh?? vua ??i ????nh C??? Long: V??? v????ng To??n theo ??i. B???y gi??? qu??n gi???c th???y nh?? vua, ch??ng gi????ng cung, ch??a t??n, toan b???n, chi???c t??n r??i xu???ng; ch??ng l???i gi????ng cung, d??y cung ?????t. Ch??ng s???, r??t lui. Nh?? vua ??i thuy???n ven s??ng ??u???i theo. Qu??n gi???c ??? hai b??n b??? ????nh kh??p l???i. Quan qu??n b??? h??m ??? s??ng. V??? v????ng To??n tr??ng ph???i m??i t??n bay, m???t t???i tr???n. Nh?? vua k??u tr???i ba ti???ng, r???i th??n ra ?????c chi???n: qu??n gi???c thua.???
V??? ph????ng di???n v??n h???c, d?????i th???i Ti???n L?? tuy ch??a t??? ch???c thi c???, nh??ng vi???c h???c do Ph???t Gi??o ph??? tr??ch, ???????c duy tr?? t???i c??c ch??a chi???n, t??? vi???n. C??c v??? cao t??ng nh?? Ph??p Thu???n, Khu??ng Vi???t ?????u l?? nh???ng danh s??. Trung Qu???c bi???t r?? n?????c ta l?? qu???c gia v??n hi???n, n??n  khi c??? s??? b??? sang, ngo??i vi??n Ch??nh s??? lo vi???c ch??nh tr???, c??n c?? vi??n ph??? t??, chuy??n ?????i ????p th?? v??n. Nh?? ph??i ??o??n L?? Nh?????c Chuy???t sang n?????c ta n??m 986, c?? Qu???c t??? gi??m b??c s?? L?? Gi??c ph??? t??, t???ng ????? l???i th?? x?????ng h???a; ph??i ??o??n T???ng C???o n??m 990, ph??? t?? b???i V????ng Th??? T???c, v??? n??y t???ng l???p k??? t??ch trong l???ch s??? Trung Qu???c, v???i 2 l???n thi ?????u Tr???ng nguy??n.[9]
V??? ph????ng di???n y t??? c??ng ???????c nh?? Vua l??u ??, qua vi???c g???i bi???u v??n sang Trung Qu???c xin nh???ng b??i thu???c hay, ????? ch???a tr??? cho d??n; t??? bi???u c?? ??o???n nh?? sau:
??????L???i b???o r???ngV??ng L??nh Bi???u[10] n??ng ???m, nhi???u ch?????ng l???, xin quan cho gi???y m???c vi???t nh???ng b??i thu???c c???u s???ng, ????? ban cho c??c ch??u.???[11]
Ph??a Trung Qu???c ch???p nh???n l???i xin n??y. [Tr?????ng Bi??n, quy???n 43]
S??? x??a ??t ????? c???p ?????n l??nh v???c kinh t???, tuy nhi??n qua s??? li???u Trung Qu???c d?????i ????y c?? th??? th???y vi???c tr???ng d??u nu??i t???m t???i n?????c ta kh?? th???nh v?????ng. Nguy??n do l??c b???y gi??? vua T???ng Ch??n T??ng ban l???nh c??c n??i tr???ng d??u nu??i t???m. Vi??n quan ?????ng ?????u Qu???ng T??y, Chuy???n v???n s??? Tr???n Nghi??u T???u t??u r???ng th??? ng??i Qu???ng T??y c?? nhi???u ????, thi???u ?????t tr???ng d??u, ch???  c??y tr???ng t?? gai m?? th??i; ri??ng vi???c tr???ng d??u, nu??i 8 lo???i t???m s???n xu???t l???a g???m th?? n???i ti???ng t???i An Nam:
???Tr?????ng Bi??n quy???n 43, ng??y Nh??m Tu???t th??ng 7 [31/7/998], Tr?????c ???? c?? chi???u ban sai d??n tr???ng nhi???u d??u [????? nu??i t???m], Chuy???n v???n s??? Qu???ng T??y Tr???n Nghi??u T???u t??u r???ng:
???C??c ch??u d?????i quy???n coi s??c c???a th???n, th??? ng??i kh??c bi???t; nhi???u ru???ng ????, thi???u ?????t ????? tr???ng d??u; th?????ng b???o r???ng ??? nh???ng th??? g???m l???a t??? 8 lo???i t???m??? v???n kh??ng c?? t???c s???n xu???t t??? Ng?? L??nh; n??i s???n xu???t ch??? t???i An Nam. D??n t???i ????y ngo??i vi???c c??y ru???ng n?????c, ngu???n t??i l???i d???a v??o lo???i t?? gai g???i l?? ma ninh m?? th??i???.???[12]
***
C??c nh?? vi???t s??? th???i x??a th?????ng ch?? ?? ?????n vi???c l??m c???a nh?? vua, c??c cu???c chinh ph???t, c??ng S??? th???n c??c n?????c qua l???i ngo???i giao; r???t ??t khi ????? c???p ?????n sinh ho???t d??n ch??ng; n??n t?? li???u ????? l???i v??? kinh t??? x?? h???i kh?? ngh??o n??n; ???? l?? ??i???u ????ng ti???c.
??????????????????
[1] ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
[2] Ch??u ?????a L??:t??n ch??u c???a Chi??m Th??nh, sau khi s??p nh???p v??o l??nh th??? nh?? L?? ?????i g???i l?? ch??u L??m B??nh (1075). Nay l?? ph???n ?????t huy???n L??? Ninh, t???nh Qu???ng B??nh.
[3] ?? L??:t??n hai ch??u c???a n?????c Chi??m Th??nh, th???i Tr???n (n??m 1306) ?????i g???i ch??u ?? l?? Thu???n Ch??u, Ch??u L?? g???i l?? Ho?? Ch??u; nay l?? ph???n ph??a nam t???nh Qu???ng Tr??? v?? t???nh Th???a Thi??n.
[4] Theo l???i ch?? To??n Th??, B???n k??? quy???n 1;  S??ng B?? H??a: s??ng ch???y qua x?? B?? H??a, sau ?????i l?? x?? ?????ng H??a, nay thu???c huy???n T??nh Gia, t???nh Thanh H??a.
[5] C????ng M???c: t???c Kh??m ?????nh Vi???t S??? Th??ng Gi??m C????ng M???c, Ch??nh Bi??n, quy???n 1.
[6] ????? ?????ng: theo ch?? th??ch c???a  To??n Th??, Ngo???i K???, quy???n 5; thu???c huy???n Thanh Oai, t???nh H?? T??y.
[7] C??? Long: C????ng M???c, Ch??nh Bi??n, quy???n 1 c?? l???i chua nh?? sau: C??? Long: T??n d??n t???c M??n. Nh?? ??inh, nh?? Ti???n L?? g???i l?? m??n C??? Long, ?????n nh?? L?? di???t ???????c. N??m Thu???n Thi??n (1428-1433), nh?? L?? ?????t l?? huy???n L???c Th???y; n??m Quang Thu???n (1460-1469), ?????i l???i C???m Th???y. B??y gi??? v???n theo t??n c??, thu???c ph??? Qu???ng H??a, t???nh Thanh H??a.
[8] C????ng M???c, Ch??nh Bi??n, quy???n 1.
[9] Theo Hoa Nh??n B??ch Khoa, V????ng Th??? T???c ?????u Tr???ng nguy??n l???n th??? nh???t, khoa n??y c?? m???t vi??n Ti???n s?? b??? khi???u n???i, n??n tri???u ????nh nh?? T???ng cho thi l???i, Th??? T???c l???i thi ti???p ?????u Tr???ng nguy??n l???n th??? 2, n??n ???????c ng?????i ?????i g???i l?? ??? Li??n khoa Tr???ng nguy??n ????????????.
[10] L??nh Bi???u: v??ng ph??a nam Ng?? L??nh, ch??? v??ng ?????t Qu???ng ????ng, Qu???ng T??y, thu???c n?????c Nam Vi???t x??a.
[11] ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
[12] ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? g???i b???n b??o
P/v
16/03/1926: Ch??? t???o th??nh c??ng t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng ?????u ti??n
Ngu???n: First liquid-fueled rocketHistory.com
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Th??? Kim Ph???ng
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1926, ng?????i ?????u ti??n ??em l???i hi v???ng cho gi???c m?? du h??nh kh??ng gian l?? nh?? khoa h???c ng?????i M??? Robert H. Goddard, khi ??ng th??? nghi???m th??nh c??ng t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng ?????u ti??n tr??n th??? gi???i t???i Auburn, Massachusetts. T??n l???a n??y ???? bay ???????c 2,5 gi??y v???i t???c ????? kho???ng 60 d???m/h, ?????t ????? cao 12,5 m v?? h??? c??nh c??ch xa 56m. T??n l???a cao 3,05 m, ???????c ch??? t???o t??? c??c ???ng m???ng, v?? s??? d???ng nhi??n li???u l?? oxy l???ng v?? x??ng.
Nh???ng n??m ?????u th??? k??? 13, ng?????i Trung Qu???c l?? nh???ng ng?????i ?????u ti??n t???o ra t??n l???a d??ng thu???c s??ng s??? d???ng trong qu??n s??? v?? c?? l??? t??n l???a ph??o hoa c??n ???????c ch??? t???o t??? tr?????c ????. T??n l???a d??ng thu???c s??ng xu???t hi???n ??? ch??u ??u c??ng trong kho???ng th??? k??? 13, v?? sang th??? k??? 19, c??c k??? s?? ng?????i Anh ???? c?? nhi???u ti???n b??? quan tr???ng trong giai ??o???n ?????u c???a ng??nh khoa h???c t??n l???a.
N??m 1903, nh?? ph??t minh ng?????i Nga Konstantin E. Tsiolkovsky ???? cho xu???t b???n m???t b??i lu???n v??? c??c v???n ????? l?? thuy???t c???a vi???c s??? d???ng ?????ng c?? t??n l???a trong kh??ng gian. Nh??ng ph???i ?????n khi t??n l???a Robert Goddard ra m???t v??o nh???ng n??m 1920 th?? ng?????i ta m???i b???t tay ch??? t???o lo???i t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng hi???n ?????i m?? v??o ?????u nh???ng n??m 1960 ???? ????a con ng?????i v??o kh??ng gian.
Goddard, sinh t???i Worcester, Massachusetts, v??o n??m 1882. ??ng tr??? n??n th??ch th?? v???i ?? t?????ng du h??nh kh??ng gian sau khi ?????c cu???n ti???u thuy???t khoa h???c vi???n t?????ng War of the Worlds (1898) c???a H.G. Wells. ??ng b???t ?????u ch??? t???o t??n l???a d??ng thu???c s??ng v??o n??m 1907, khi c??n l?? sinh vi??n t???i Vi???n B??ch khoa Worcester (Worcester Polytechnic Institute) v?? ti???p t???c th??? nghi???m t??n l???a khi ???? l?? nghi??n c???u sinh ti???n s?? v?? sau ???? l?? gi??o s?? v???t l?? t???i ?????i h???c Clark. ??ng l?? ng?????i ?????u ti??n ch???ng minh r???ng t??n l???a c?? th??? bay trong ch??n kh??ng v?? c??ng l?? ng?????i ?????u ti??n kh??m ph?? n??ng l?????ng v?? l???c ?????y c???a c??c lo???i nhi??n li???u kh??c nhau, g???m oxy l???ng v?? hydro l???ng. ??ng ???? nh???n ???????c b???ng s??ng ch??? c???a M??? cho ?? t?????ng v??? t??n l???a ??a t???ng v?? t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng, v?? nh???n tr??? c???p t??? Vi???n Smithsonian ????? ti???p t???c nghi??n c???u c???a m??nh.
N??m 1919, b??i lu???n kinh ??i???n c???a Goddard, A Method of Reaching Extreme Altitudes, ???? ???????c c??ng b??? b???i Vi???n Smithsonian. B??i lu???n ch??? ra c??c l?? thuy???t to??n h???c c???a ??ng v??? ?????ng c?? t??n l???a v?? ????? xu???t vi???c ph??ng m???t t??n l???a kh??ng ng?????i l??i l??n m???t tr??ng trong t????ng lai. Tuy nhi??n, b??o ch?? ???? ch??? gi???u ?? t?????ng t??n l???a l??n m???t tr??ng c???a nh?? khoa h???c. Th??ng 01/1920, t??? The New York Times ????ng m???t b??i x?? lu???n n??i r???ng Ti???n s?? Goddard ???d?????ng nh?? thi???u ki???n th???c th?????ng th???c ???????c d???y ??? trung h???c,??? v?? ??ng ngh?? r???ng ?????ng c?? t??n l???a s??? ho???t ?????ng ???????c ngo??i b???u kh?? quy???n tr??i ?????t. (Ba ng??y tr?????c khi s??? m???nh Apollo ?????u ti??n h??? c??nh tr??n m???t tr??ng v??o th??ng 07/1969, t??? b??o ???? cho ????ng b???n ????nh ch??nh b??i x?? lu???n n??y.)
Th??ng 12/1925, Goddard ???? th??? nghi???m m???t t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng t???i t??a nh?? Khoa V???t l?? c???a ?????i h???c Clark. ??ng ???? vi???t r???ng t??n l???a, ???????c ?????t tr??n m???t gi?? c??? ?????nh, ??????? ho???t ?????ng m???t c??ch th???a ????ng v?? bay l??n mang theo tr???ng l?????ng c???a ch??nh n??.??? Ng??y 16/03/1926, Goddard th??? nghi???m t??n l???a nhi??n li???u l???ng ?????u ti??n t???i trang tr???i c???a d?? Effie c???a ??ng ??? Auburn.
Goddard ti???p t???c c??ng vi???c ch??? t???o t??n l???a cho ?????n khi ??ng qua ?????i v??o n??m 1945. C??c c??ng tr??nh c???a ??ng ???? ???????c c??ng nh???n b???i phi c??ng Charles A. Lindbergh, ng?????i ???? gi??p ??ng gi??nh ???????c m???t kho???n tr??? c???p t??? Qu??? Guggenheim v??? Th??c ?????y Khoa h???c H??ng kh??ng (Guggenheim Fund for the Promotion of Aeronautics). Goddard ???? d??ng kho???n vi???n tr??? n??y ????? x??y m???t khu th??? nghi???m t???i Roswell, New Mexico, ho???t ?????ng t??? n??m 1930 ?????n n??m 1942. Trong su???t th???i gian l??m vi???c t???i ????y, ??ng ???? th???c hi???n th??nh c??ng 31 ?????t bay th??? nghi???m, trong ???? c?? m???t t??n l???a ?????t t???m cao 2,7 km ch??? trong 22,3 gi??y. Trong khi Goddard t??? m??nh ti???n h??nh c??c th??? nghi???m m?? kh??ng c?? h??? tr??? ch??nh th???c t??? ch??nh ph??? M???, th?? ph??a ?????c ???? ch??? ?????ng trong vi???c ph??t tri???n t??n l???a. Th??ng 09/1944, h??? l???n ?????u s??? d???ng t??n l???a h??nh tr??nh V-2 c???a m??nh ????? t??n ph?? n?????c Anh. Trong th???i chi???n, Goddard ???? ph??t tri???n m???t ?????ng c?? ph???n l???c ????? gi??p kh???i ?????ng cho c??c th???y phi c?? c???a H???i qu??n M???.
????ng ti???c l?? Goddard ???? kh??ng th??? s???ng ????? ch???ng ki???n nh???ng ti???n b??? l???n lao trong vi???c ch??? t???o t??n l???a v??o th???p ni??n 1950 v?? 1960, v???n ???? bi???n ?????c m?? du h??nh kh??ng gian c???a ??ng th??nh s??? th???t. Trung t??m Kh??ng gian Goddard c???a NASA ??? Greenbelt, Maryland, ???? ???????c ?????t theo t??n Goddard nh???m vinh danh ??ng.
Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? g???i b???n b??o
P/v
???Con ng???a hoang??? Trump s??? b??? thu???n ph???c?
Ngu???n: Nouriel Roubini, ???The Taming of Trump???, Project Syndicate, 11/11/2016.
Bi??n d???ch: L?? H???nh Nguy??n | Hi???u ????nh: L?? H???ng Hi???p
Sau khi Donald Trump b???t ng??? ?????c c??? ch???c t???ng th???ng Hoa K???, m???t c??u h???i ???????c ?????t ra l?? li???u ??ng s??? l??nh ?????o theo ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y c???c ??oan nh?? trong chi???n d???ch c???a m??nh hay s??? l???a ch???n m???t c??ch ti???p c???n th???c d???ng v?? h???p l?? h??n.
N???u Trump l??nh ?????o theo ????ng nh?? chi???n d???ch ???? gi??p ??ng ?????c c???, th?? nh???ng g?? s??? di???n ra l?? n???i s??? h??i c???a th??? tr?????ng tr??n ?????t M??? v?? to??n th??? gi???i, c??ng nh?? nh???ng t???n th???t to l???n ti???m t??ng v??? m???t kinh t???. Tuy nhi??n, v???n c?? l?? do ????? hy v???ng Trump s??? qu???n l?? theo m???t c??ch r???t kh??c.
M???t ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y c???c ??oan nh?? Trump s??? r???i kh???i Hi???p ?????nh ?????i t??c xuy??n Th??i B??nh D????ng (TPP), h???y b??? Hi???p ?????nh Th????ng m???i T??? do B???c M??? (NAFTA), v?? ??p ?????t thu??? cao cho h??ng nh???p kh???u t??? Trung Qu???c. ??ng c??ng s??? cho x??y d???ng b???c t?????ng bi??n gi???i M??? ??? Mexico nh?? ???? h???a; tr???c xu???t h??ng tri???u lao ?????ng kh??ng c?? gi???y t???; h???n ch??? c???p visa H1B cho c??c lao ?????ng l??nh ngh??? c???n thi???t trong l??nh v???c c??ng ngh???; v?? x??a b??? ho??n to??n ch????ng tr??nh B???o hi???m Y t??? ph?? h???p t??i ti???n (Affordable Care Act ??? Obamacare), ??i???u c?? th??? khi???n h??ng tri???u ng?????i d??n kh??ng c?? b???o hi???m s???c kh???e.
N??i chung, m???t Trump c???c ??oan c?? th??? l??m t??ng th??m h???t ng??n s??ch c???a Hoa K???. ??ng ta s??? gi???m m???nh thu??? thu nh???p c???a c??c c??ng ty v?? c?? nh??n gi??u c??.  D?? m??? r???ng c?? s??? thu thu???, t??ng thu??? l???i nhu???n t??ch l??y (carried interest) c???a c??c nh?? qu???n l?? qu???, v?? khuy???n kh??ch c??c c??ng ty chuy???n l???i nhu???n ngo???i qu???c v??? n?????c, nh??ng k??? ho???ch c???a ??ng s??? kh??ng gi??p c??n b???ng ng??n s??ch. ??ng s??? t??ng chi ti??u qu??n s??? v?? khu v???c c??ng trong c??c l??nh v???c nh?? c?? s??? h??? t???ng, v?? vi???c c???t gi???m thu??? cho ng?????i gi??u s??? l??m gi???m thu ng??n s??ch c???a ch??nh ph??? t???i 9 ngh??n t??? ???? la trong v??ng m???t th???p ni??n.
M???t Trump c???c ??oan nh?? v???y c??ng s??? thay ?????i m???nh c??ch ti???p c???n ch??nh s??ch ti???n t??? hi???n t???i ??? ?????u ti??n l?? b???ng c??ch thay th??? ch??? t???ch C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang M??? (Fed) Janet Yellen b???i m???t k??? hi???u chi???n theo tr?????ng ph??i tr???ng ti???n, r???i l???p ?????y c??c v??? tr?? tr???ng trong H???i ?????ng Th???ng ?????c Fed hi???n t???i v?? s???p t???i b???i nh???ng nh??n v???t t????ng t???. H??n n???a, Trump s??? x??a b??? nh???ng g?? ??ng ta c?? th??? t??? ?????o lu???t c???i c??ch t??i ch??nh Dodd-Frank n??m 2010; ch??n ??p C???c B???o v??? T??i ch??nh Ng?????i ti??u d??ng; c???t gi???m ti???n tr??? c???p cho c??c ngu???n n??ng l?????ng thay th??? v?? gi???m c??c quy ?????nh v??? m??i tr?????ng; ?????ng th???i lo???i b??? b???t c??? ??i???u lu???t n??o ???????c cho l?? s??? g??y c???n tr??? c??c doanh nghi???p l???n.
Cu???i c??ng, ch??nh s??ch c???c ??oan c???a Trump s??? l??m b???t ???n c??c li??n minh c???a M??? v?? l??m gia t??ng c??ng th???ng v???i c??c ?????i th???. T?? t?????ng b???o h??? c???a Trump c?? th??? s??? ch??m ng??i cho m???t cu???c chi???n tranh th????ng m???i tr??n to??n c???u, v?? n???u ??ng c??? nh???t ?????nh mu???n c??c ?????ng minh ph???i t??? chi tr??? cho qu???c ph??ng c???a m??nh th?? s??? d???n ?????n t??nh tr???ng gia t??ng v?? kh?? h???t nh??n ?????n m???c nguy hi???m, ?????ng th???i g??y s???t gi???m v??? th??? l??nh ?????o c???a Hoa K??? tr??n tr?????ng qu???c t???.
Nh??ng kh??? n??ng cao h??n l?? Trump s??? theo ??u???i m???t ch??nh s??ch th???c t??? v?? trung dung. Ngay t??? ?????u, Trump l?? m???t doanh nh??n ??a th??ch ???ngh??? thu???t ????m ph??n???, v?? v???y ??ng v???n d?? l?? m???t ng?????i th???c d???ng h??n l?? m???t k??? l?? thuy???t su??ng. L???a ch???n tranh c??? d?????i h??nh ???nh c???a m???t ng?????i theo ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y ch??? l?? m???t chi???n thu???t, v?? kh??ng nh???t thi???t ph???n ??nh nh???ng quan ni???m th???t s??? c???a ??ng.
Th???c t??? Trump l?? m???t tay kinh doanh b???t ?????ng s???n gi??u c?? ???? s???ng c??? cu???c ?????i c???nh nh???ng doanh nh??n gi??u c?? kh??c. ??ng l?? m???t tay marketing ?????y kinh nghi???m, ng?????i ???? n???m b???t ???????c xu h?????ng ch??nh tr??? b???ng c??ch chi???u theo nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ?????ng C???ng h??a trong t???ng l???p lao ?????ng v?? nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ?????ng D??n ch??? b???o th???,[1] m???t v??i trong s??? h??? c?? th??? ???? ???ng h??? Th?????ng ngh??? s?? ?????n t??? bang Vermont Bernie Sanders trong v??ng b??? phi???u s?? b??? c???a ?????ng D??n ch???. ??i???u n??y cho ph??p ??ng n???i b???t gi???a r???t nhi???u nh???ng ch??nh tr??? gia gi??? t?? t?????ng ???ng h??? gi???i kinh doanh, th??n ph??? Wall, hay ???ng h??? to??n c???u h??a truy???n th???ng.
Khi ???? l??n n???m quy???n, b??? ngo??i Trump s??? chi???u l??ng nh???ng ng?????i ???? ???ng h??? m??nh m???t c??ch t?????ng tr??ng trong khi quay tr??? l???i v???i c??c ch??nh s??ch kinh t??? tr???ng cung v?? nh??? gi???t l???i ??ch xu???ng c??c t???ng l???p d?????i[2] m?? c??c ?????ng vi??n C???ng h??a ???? ??a th??ch h??ng th???p k??? nay. Mike Pence, ng?????i ???????c Trump ch???n l??m ph?? t???ng th???ng, l?? m???t ch??nh tr??? gia d??ng ch??nh c???a ?????ng C???ng h??a, v?? c??c c??? v???n kinh t??? trong chi???n d???ch c???a ??ng ?????u l?? nh???ng doanh nh??n gi??u c??, c??c chuy??n gia t??i ch??nh, nh?? ph??t tri???n b???t ?????ng s???n v?? c??c nh?? kinh t??? theo ch??? ngh??a tr???ng cung. H??n n???a, ??ng c??ng ???????c cho l?? ??ang c??n nh???c ????a nh???ng ?????ng vi??n d??ng ch??nh c???a ?????ng C???ng h??a v??o n???i c??c c???a m??nh, bao g???m c???u Ch??? t???ch H??? vi???n Newt Gingrich, Th?????ng ngh??? s?? bang Tennessee Bob Corker, Th?????ng ngh??? s?? bang Alabama Jess Sessions, v?? c???u gi??m ?????c ??i???u h??nh t???p ??o??n Goldman Sachs Steven Mnuchin (ng?????i c??ng c??? v???n cho ??ng trong chi???n d???ch tranh c???).
Nh???ng ?????ng vi??n ?????ng C???ng h??a truy???n th???ng v?? c??c nh?? l??nh ?????o kinh doanh s???p ???????c Trump b??? nhi???m r???i s??? ?????nh h??nh n??n nh???ng ch??nh s??ch cho ??ng. Nh??nh h??nh ph??p s??? tu??n theo m???t qu?? tr??nh ra quy???t ?????nh m?? qua ????, c??c b??? ban ng??nh li??n quan ph???i t??nh t???i c??c nguy c?? v?? k???t qu??? c???a c??c k???ch b???n ???????c ????a ra, sau ???? tr??nh l??n t???ng th???ng danh s??ch gi???i h???n c??c ch??nh s??ch ????? l???a ch???n. V??, v?? s??? thi???u kinh nghi???m c???a m??nh, Trump s??? ph???i ph??? thu???c nhi???u h??n v??o c??c c??? v???n, gi???ng nh?? c???u T???ng th???ng Ronald Reagan v?? George W. Bush.
Trump c??ng s??? b??? Qu???c h???i l??i v??? m???t l???p tr?????ng trung dung, d???a v??o ???? ??ng s??? ph???i l??m vi???c ????? th??ng qua b???t k??? m???t ?????o lu???t n??o. Ch??? t???ch H??? vi???n Paul Ryan v?? l??nh ?????o ?????ng C???ng h??a trong Th?????ng vi???n c?? nhi???u quan ??i???m ch??nh th???ng v??? th????ng m???i, v???n ????? di c?? v?? th??m h???t ng??n s??ch h??n Trump. Trong khi ????, ?????ng D??n ch??? chi???m thi???u s??? trong Th?????ng vi???n s??? c?? th??? g??y c???n tr??? b???t c??? s??? c???i t??? to??n di???n n??o m?? Trump ????? xu???t, ?????c bi???t l?? khi ch??ng ?????ng ?????n ??????????ng ray th??? ba??? c???a ch??nh tr??? Hoa K???: v???n ????? An ninh X?? h???i v?? B???o hi???m Y t???.
Trump c??ng s??? b??? ki???m ch??? b???i m?? h??nh tam quy???n ph??n l???p c???a h??? th???ng ch??nh tr??? M???, c??c c?? quan ch??nh ph??? t????ng ?????i ?????c l???p nh?? Fed, v?? m???t gi???i b??o ch?? t??? do v?? m???nh m???.
Nh??ng ch??nh th??? tr?????ng m???i l?? nh??n t??? ki???m ch??? l???n nh???t c???a Trump. N???u ??ng c??? g???ng theo ??u???i c??c ch??nh s??ch theo ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y c???c ??oan, th?? h???u qu??? ????p l???i s??? r???t nhanh ch??ng v?? mang t??nh tr???ng ph???t: ch???ng kho??n s??? t???t d???c, ?????ng ???? la r???t gi??, c??c nh?? ?????u t?? s??? n?? tr??nh tr??i phi???u kho b???c M???, gi?? v??ng s??? l??n ?????nh, v?? nhi???u h??n th??? n???a. Tuy nhi??n, n???u Trump k???t h???p c??c ch??nh s??ch d??n t??y ??n h??a v???i c??c ch??nh s??ch c???ng c??? kinh doanh truy???n th???ng, ??ng s??? kh??ng ph???i ?????i m???t v???i h???u qu??? th??? tr?????ng. Gi??? ????y khi ???? th???ng c???, ch???ng c?? l?? do g?? khi???n ??ng ph???i ch???n ch??? ngh??a d??n t??y thay cho s??? an to??n.
Nh???ng hi???u ???ng t???o ra t??? m???t t???ng th???ng Trump th???c d???ng s??? h???n ch??? h??n nhi???u so v???i m???t k???ch b???n Trump c???c ??oan. ?????u ti??n, ??ng s??? v???n b??? hi???p ?????nh TPP; nh??ng Hillary Clinton c??ng s??? l??m v???y n???u ?????c c???. ??ng tuy??n b??? r???ng s??? h???y b??? NAFTA, nh??ng kh??? n??ng cao h??n l?? ??ng s??? ch??? ??i???u ch???nh n?? ????? chi???u l??ng nh???ng c??ng nh??n lao ?????ng c??? c???n xanh c???a M???. V?? th???m ch?? n???u m???t Trump th???c d???ng mu???n h???n ch??? nh???p kh???u t??? Trung Qu???c, th?? l???a ch???n c???a ??ng c??ng b??? h???n ch??? b???i m???t ph??n quy???t g???n ????y c???a T??? ch???c Th????ng m???i Th??? gi???i (WTO) ch???ng l???i c??c m???c thu??? ???ch???ng ph?? gi?? c?? ch???n l???c??? nh???m v??o h??ng h??a Trung Qu???c. C??c ???ng c??? vi??n ???ngo??i cu???c??? th?????ng t???n c??ng Trung Qu???c trong chi???n d???ch v???n ?????ng tranh c??? c???a m??nh, nh??ng m???t khi ???? v??o cu???c, h??? s??? s???m nh???n ra r???ng vi???c h???p t??c s??? c?? l???i h??n.
Trump c?? th??? s??? x??y b???c t?????ng c???a m??nh t???i bi??n gi???i Mexico, m???c d?? l?????ng ng?????i di c?? hi???n sang ??t h??n tr?????c. Nh??ng ??ng c??ng s??? ch??? s??? g??y nh???ng ng?????i di c?? kh??ng c?? gi???y t???, nh???ng ng?????i ph???m c??c t???i ??c b???o l???c, thay v?? s??? tr???c xu???t 5-10 tri???u ng?????i. Tuy nhi??n, ??ng c?? th??? s??? v???n h???n ch??? vi???c c???p visa cho nh???ng lao ?????ng tay ngh??? cao, ??i???u s??? ??t nhi???u l???y ??i nh???a s???ng c???a ng??nh c??ng ngh???.
M???t Trump th???c d???ng s??? v???n t???o ra t??nh tr???ng th??m h???t ng??n s??ch, nh??ng s??? ??t h??n so v???i phi??n b???n c???c ??oan. V?? d???, n???u ??ng l??m theo k??? ho???ch thu??? ????? xu???t b???i c??c ?????ng vi??n ?????ng C???ng h??a trong Qu???c H???i, thu ng??n s??ch t??? thu??? s??? ch??? gi???m 2 ngh??n t??? ???? trong v??ng m???t th???p ni??n.
M???t ??i???u ch???c ch???n l?? s??? k???t h???p ch??nh s??ch d?????i m???t ch??nh quy???n Trump th???c d???ng s??? kh??ng nh???t qu??n v??? m???t ?? th???c h??? v?? kh?? t??? cho t??ng tr?????ng kinh t???. Nh??ng th??? c??n d??? ch???p nh???n h??n nhi???u ?????i v???i c??c nh?? ?????u t?? ??? v?? th??? gi???i ??? so v???i ch????ng tr??nh ngh??? s??? c???c ??oan m?? ??ng ???? h???a h???n v???i nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? m??nh.
Nouriel Roubini, gi??o s?? t???i Tr?????ng Kinh doanh Stern thu???c ?????i h???c New York v?? Ch??? t???ch c???a Roubini Global Economics, t???ng l?? Kinh t??? gia Cao c???p v??? C??c v???n ????? Qu???c t??? trong H???i ?????ng C??? v???n Kinh t??? c???a Nh?? Tr???ng d?????i th???i Ch??nh quy???n Clinton. ??ng t???ng l??m vi???c cho Qu??? Ti???n t??? Qu???c t???, C???c D??? tr??? Li??n bang M???, v?? Ng??n h??ng Th??? gi???i.
Copyright: Project Syndicate 2016 ??? The Taming of Trump
?????????????????????
[1]  Nguy??n v??n: Reagan Democrats.
[2] Nguy??n v??n: Trickle-down economic policies.
20/03/1953: Khrushchev b???t ?????u tr???i d???y n???m quy???n
Ngu???n: ???Khrushchev begins his rise to power???, History.com (truy c???p ng??y 20/3/2016).
Bi??n d???ch: Nguy???n Ng???c T?????ng Ng??n
V??o ng??y n??y n??m 1953, Ch??nh ph??? Li??n X?? th??ng b??o r???ng Nikita Khrushchev l?? m???t trong n??m ng?????i ???????c b???u v??o Ban B?? th?? m???i ???????c th??nh l???p c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n. Vi???c Khrushchev ???????c l???a ch???n l?? m???t b?????c quan tr???ng ?????u ti??n d???n ?????n s??? tr???i d???y n???m quy???n c???a ??ng ??? Li??n X?? ??? m???t b?????c ti???n m?? cu???i c??ng gi??p Khrushchev ???????c b???u l??m T???ng B?? th?? c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n v??o th??ng 9 n??m 1953, v?? sau ???? l?? Th??? t?????ng v??o n??m 1958.
C??i ch???t c???a Joseph Stalin v??o ng??y 5 th??ng 3 n??m 1953 ???? t???o ra m???t kho???ng tr???ng r???t l???n trong d??n l??nh ?????o Li??n X??. Stalin ???? cai tr??? Li??n X?? t??? nh???ng n??m 1920. V???i vi???c ??ng qua ?????i, ng?????i th???a k??? hi???n nhi??n l?? Georgy Maksimilianovich Malenkov, ng?????i ???????c ch??? ?????nh l??m th??? t?????ng v?? B?? th?? th??? nh???t c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n ngay sau c??i ch???t c???a Stalin. Tuy nhi??n, s??? chuy???n ti???p t?????ng nh?? tr??n tru n??y l???i ???n d???u m???t cu???c ?????u tranh quy???n l???c ng??y c??ng t??ng gi???a Malenkov v?? Nikita Khrushchev.
Khrushchev ???? ho???t ?????ng t??ch c???c trong ?????ng C???ng s???n Nga t??? khi tham gia v??o n??m 1918. T??? khi Stalin n???m quy???n ki???m so??t Li??n X?? sau c??i ch???t c???a Lenin n??m 1924, Khrushchev ???? tr??? th??nh m???t ?????ng ch?? trung th??nh tuy???t ?????i c???a nh?? ?????c t??i t??n b???o. L??ng trung th??nh n??y ???? gi??p ??ch cho ??ng, v?? ??ng l?? m???t trong s??? ??t nh???ng ?????ng vi??n Bolshevik k??? c???u s???ng s??t qua cu???c thanh tr???ng ch??nh tr??? t??n kh???c c???a Stalin trong th???p ni??n 1930.
Trong nh???ng n??m 1940 Khrushchev ???? n???m m???t s??? v??? tr?? quan tr???ng trong ch??nh ph??? Li??n X??. Tuy nhi??n, khi Stalin qua ?????i th??ng 3 n??m 1953, Khrushchev ???? b??? b??? qua v?? Malenkov ???????c ch?? ??. Nh??ng kh??ng m???t nhi???u th???i gian ????? Khrushchev qua m???t m???t Malenkov t???m th?????ng. ?????u ti??n, ??ng ???? t??? ch???c m???t li??n minh c??c ch??nh tr??? gia Li??n X?? ????? bu???c Malenkov t??? b??? ch???c v??? B?? th?? th??? nh???t ??? v??? tr?? quan tr???ng h??n do c?? quy???n ki???m so??t b??? m??y ?????ng ??? Li??n X??. Malenkov c??ng khai tuy??n b??? r???ng ??ng ???? t??? b??? v??? tr?? n??y ????? khuy???n kh??ch vi???c chia s??? tr??ch nhi???m ch??nh tr???, nh??ng r?? r??ng l?? Khrushchev ???? gi??nh ???????c m???t chi???n th???ng quan tr???ng.
????? thay th??? Malenkov, ?????ng c??ng b??? th??nh l???p m???t c?? quan m???i, m???t ban b?? th?? g???m n??m ng?????i. C??c nh?? b??o ph????ng T??y ghi nh???n r???ng khi c??ng b??? n??m th??nh vi??n n??y, t??n c???a Khrushchev lu??n ???????c li???t k?? ?????u ti??n, trong khi nh???ng ng?????i kh??c ???????c ghi theo th??? t??? b???ng ch??? c??i. M???i vi???c s???m s??ng t??? r???ng Khrushchev l?? ng?????i n???m quy???n ch??nh trong Ban B?? th??, v?? v??o th??ng 9 n??m 1953, ??ng ???? gi??nh ???????c ????? s??? ???ng h??? ????? ???????c b???u l??m T???ng B?? th?? c???a ?????ng C???ng s???n. Trong th??ng 2 n??m 1955, ??ng v?? nh???ng ng?????i ???ng h??? ???? ?????y Malenkov ra kh???i ch???c th??? t?????ng v?? thay th??? v??? tr?? n??y b???ng m???t con r???i c???a Khrushchev, ???? l?? Nikolai Aleksandrovich Bulganin. V??o th??ng 3 n??m 1958, Khrushchev c???ng c??? quy???n l???c c???a m??nh b???ng c??ch gi??nh lu??n c??? ch???c th??? t?????ng.
C??c quan ch???c Hoa K???, trong ???? c?? Ngo???i tr?????ng John Foster Dulles, ???? ????nh gi?? th???p Khrushchev. Ban ?????u, h??? coi ??ng nh?? l?? m???t tay sai c???a Malenkov, nh??ng kh??ng l??u sau ???? ???? ph??t hi???n ra r???ng m???t Khrushchev l??? m??ng v?? ??t tinh t??? l?? m???t l???c l?????ng ????ng ???????c t??nh ?????n trong n???n ch??nh tr??? Li??n X??. B???t ch???p s??? lo l???ng c???a h???, s??? tr???i d???y c???a Khrushchev ???? b???t ?????u m???t th???i k??? m?? trong ???? c??ng th???ng gi???a Hoa K??? v?? Li??n X?? b???t ?????u gi???m b???t, khi ??ng k??u g???i m???t s??? ???chung s???ng h??a b??nh??? gi???a hai si??u c?????ng.
Xem th??m: Khrushchev m???i l?? ng?????i gi???t ch???t ch??? ngh??a c???ng s???n

Nghi??n c???u Qu???c t??? g???i b???n b??o!
P/v
 

Tổng số điểm của bài viết là: 0 trong 0 đánh giá

Click để đánh giá bài viết

  Ý kiến bạn đọc

G???ng g???i

Truy??n ng??n c??a ???? Ho??ng                                          H??n th??ng n??y, m??a nh??ng...

Thống kê
  • Đang truy cập8
  • Hôm nay1,756
  • Tháng hiện tại17,432
  • Tổng lượt truy cập5,762,304
Bạn đã không sử dụng Site, Bấm vào đây để duy trì trạng thái đăng nhập. Thời gian chờ: 60 giây